It pains me greatly to say this.  I never raise the white flag, but Ned tried and it was too little, too late.  

Podsednik, Theriot, Lilly and Dotel arrived at the fort after the troops had already been massacred.

This year is done.  It’s time to hop on the Bus Gus, we don’t need to discuss much.

It is time to look at the core of this team, and decide who has to stay and who can go.  I think it’s really very simple:  most of the core of this team are players who are under team control for the next few years, but not all are “core players.”

Immediately, the following players should be placed on waivers (of course, some like Sherrill , Blake and Anderson will not be claimed, but some will):

• Sherrill
• Anderson
• Lilly
• Podsednik
• Theriot
• Dotel
• Broxton
• Padilla
• Kuroda
• Martin
• Blake
• Furcal
• Ramirez
• Weaver
• Belliard
• Carroll

You don’t need to be coy, Roy, just listen to me. Here’s my rationale:  The Dodgers will actually keep some of those players, but a few could bring us some TOP (I mean TOP) Prospects in return.  Tampa Bay or the White Sox covet Manny, and while the Dodgers won’t get a ton for him, they should be able to recover $2 to $4 mil and a Top 10 Prospect for him.  Broxton and Furcal will both bring two Top Prospects, I mean really good players.  Raffy can help a team win it all THIS year.  The Dodgers only control him one more year and he’s getting older, so they need to see what they can get.  If they can get two Top Prospects for him, they should do it.   Just drop off the key, Lee and set yourself free!

I am a believer that you don’t pay a closer $10 mil, and Broxton will be there soon.  Never mind that I have an “irrational hatred of him” – he needs to go, and get us a couple more top prospects.  Stockpile those bad boys.    Someone may want Podsednik, Theriot, Lilly, Dotel, Padilla, Kuroda, Martin, Weaver and Carroll or Belly.  They won’t all go, but some will.  Jansen, Lindblom, Belisario, Kuo, Guerra and others wait to close.

Just slip out the back, Jack. Look, I like Raffy – but let’s get real.  He’s having a career year.  Trade him before he gets hurt!

Here’s the Dodger’s core:

• Kemp
• Ethier
• Loney
• Kershaw
• Billingsley

That’s it!  Those 5 guys are the Dodgers Core.   I used to love Russ Martin, but he’s not a “core player.”  Matt Kemp showed how good he can be when he is focused, like last night.  He got called out in the press the day before, admitted he needed to do better, and immediately did it!  He has Superstar talent.  The play where Loney got thrown out at 3B could have happened to anyone in that same situation.  I  can’t fault Kemp on that one (and I have been critical of him this year).  Kemp was scoring easily and wasn’t dogging it, but was in a mode that wasn’t top speed (and rightfully so).   If anything, we should be ragging on Loney for going to 3B.

The Dodgers should lock those 5 guys  up long term!    RIGHT NOW!    Belisario, Kuo, Jansen, Monasterios, Paul, Hu, DeJesus, Sands (?), Lindblom,  Ely, Ellis and others will be around also.

Take the prospects the Dodgers can get for Martin, Broxton, Lilly, Manny and others and add them to their stable of prospects.  Oh, and sign Zach Lee!  NOW!

That’s my plan.  Make it so, Ned.

Oh, here’s your short list for managers next year:

• Gibson (if he’s available)
• Scioscia (yeah, I know, but…)
• Ausmus
• Wallach

Pick one!

I will preface what I am about to say, by stating that the Dodgers are capable of reeling off a 15 game winning streak!

Matt Kemp's Addiction

1. Jon Broxton can be a great closer, but he just lacks the “C” in closer, which makes him a loser.  According to some pin-headed bloggers (Jon Weisman not included), I have an irrational hatred of Broxton.   You are entitled to your own opinion and you are just as entitled to be a moron.  ”Broxton is great, look at his stats, la,la, la, la.”  You are fine.  Take your Prozac, Carry on!  Dig this:  Broxton needs to be traded.  NOW!
2. Rhianna!  The sooner she dumps Kemp, the sooner he heads to superstardom!  No explanation necessary.
3. Manny Ramirez needs to just go away.  He doesn’t want to play the field.  Even Ray Charles can see that!  Trade him to the Yanks or Tampa Bay.  Do it now!  X-Paul in LF makes us better. Live with it.  (I TOLD YOU THE DODGERS SHOULDN’T HAVE SIGNED MANNY, DIDN’T I?)
4. Cheryl and Anderson. They must go.  End of story!
5. Russell Martin needs to quit being a slugger and just be Russell Martin. Don’t be an idiot, Russ.  Let me re-phrase that:  Stop being and idiot, Russ!
6. Will the real Ronald Belisario Stand Up?  If he can’t come back strong, the Dodgers are screwed!
7. Can Ramon Troncoso re-discover his outstanding sinker?  (See Ronald Belisario)
8. Kenley Jansen needs to be in the Dodgers bullpen.  End of story!  What are you waiting for, Ned?
9. Joe Torre needs to be sipping Mint Julips at the Kentucky Derby and taking his Geritol with his Bigelow Tea.  His fire is gone.  Stick a fork in him, he’s done!  Ditto on Mattingly, Bowa, Schafer, Pentland and Honeycutt – It’s time for a new perspective!
10. If Frank McCourt doesn’t allow the Dodgers to get a  #1 or #2 Starter, then he has to go.  I have defended the fact that he would spend to get an arm, and with Broxton as a trading chip, he should be able to get Roy Oswalt.  If that doesn’t happen, then I hope Jamie’s argument is ruled upon favorably and the Dodgers will be sold.

CHAD BILLINGSLEY ROCKS!

Jared Massey and I were both at Blogger Night in LA on Monday Night and during the six plus hours at Dodger Stadium we gained a lot of insight into the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers.  So,

Ned Colletti chatting with us stinkin'bloggers

here is some of what we have learned:

Ned Colletti spoke with us for nearly an hour and was forthright, honest, never-hedging questions and downright frank.  He answered every question and gave Dodger fans some reasons to believe.  Here’s some of what he said:

• Ned Colletti admitted that during his Dodger tenure, he’s made good and bad deals and said that in the beginning he tried too hard to make things happen, which resulted in bad deals.   He showed me that he can be critical of himself and look at things with a rational and scientific mind.
• Is he worried about Russ Martin?  Yes, but it’s not for a lack of trying – he’s still one of the hardest workers on the team (Vicente Padilla is another).
• Jerry Sands – “Professional approach and great leadership.”  Cautious, yet very optimistic!
• Ned expects James McDonald to get back into the swing of things, and has not ruled him being a starter. It is natural for McDonald at this stage to be working on his pitch consistency and Ned likened him to Eric Gagne in this respect.
• John Ely – Ned Colletti shared a story of discussing options with Juan Pierre after the 2009 season. Colletti’s relationship with Ely’s college coach at Miami gave him confidence in Ely as part of the deal. Colletti had great things to say about Ely; he likes how he competes and “how his thought process adapts mid-game.” Colletti also gave Ely a lot of credit for his start at Wrigley Field, especially being a native Chicago boy and having the hometown pressure, but he was cautious about not reading too much into Ely’s early success and recent lack of it.  Personally, I think Ely is AAA bound.
• Blake DeWtt – Ned appreciates  how hard Blake works. He talked about DeWitt being a great guy to be on the team for his character, and Ned values character, which brings me to…
• Garret Anderson, who according to Colletti, still has a lot of value to the club and “can be a threat.” This is the part where I thought Ned was high on drugs. Put down the crack pipe, Ned!
• Xavier Paul has a lot of potential and his call-up hinges on Manny Ramirez’ status.  Ned talked about  how challenging it is to try to refine and advance a players’s development at the major league level.
  

  Ron Cey and Jared - Jared doesn't even remember him...

• Matt Kemp – he liked how Kemp’s positive results the last couple of games.  Not mentioning Kemp in particular, he did say how difficult this game is to play, and how the Hall-of-Fame Players that he has seen have had to keep working at it diligently even when they’re at the top of their game, and mentioned how particularly difficult that is to do in baseball.
• Ned emphatically stated that he Dodgers are very determined to sign Zach Lee, and he said it was a challenge to have their first pick in the draft so low in the order, which is why the Dodgers took a chance on him.  He was Top 10 or Top 5 Talent and due to the Dodgers winning ways, they generally don’t pick so high, so Lee was worth the risk.  I got the feeling from Ned that the Dodgers were willing to pay 3 to 4 million for Lee, maybe more!
• Ned said that he is also looking for relief pitching, but that it is is so volatile, it’s hard to find quality relievers at the trade deadline.
• George Sherrill? Ned has no clue why he is struggling (I told you to trade him, Ned).  When asked if Sherill had been asked to go to the minors, Ned paused, long enough to let us know that the Dodgers had asked him and he had refused!  When asked that, Ned didn’t deny it.
• Colletti thinks the time off for Ramon Troncoso will help him work out the kinks in some of his pitches.  He said that his sinker wasn’t sinking.
• He talked about how the Vicente Padilla deal happened and how it involved personal face-to-face contact regarding Padilla’s reputation prior to joining the Dodgers. Colletti appreciates how Padilla has been “a model citizen” for the team.  He said that Padilla promised he would not be a problem (he did not promise that he wouldn’t shoot himself in the foot, however).
• Scott Elbert – He hopes he comes back and fixes whatever was eating him.
• Ned is acting like he will be able to take on payroll if the right opportunity presents itself (which I have been saying all along).
• Ned says that Josh Lindblom’s velocity is down, and they have no clue why.  By the way, I have observed that Jon Broxton’s velocity is also down.  Hummmm….
• Ned recounted his first “disagreement” with Joe Torre.  When Ned had first brought Clayton Kershaw up (because the coaches “begged” for it), Ned told Joe that he needed to be handled with kid gloves.  One particular game, Joe left him in and brought him out in the 8th inning, during which Clayton had problems and was ultimately removed.  Ned said he bit his tongue until he got home and asked Joe “can you explain your thought process in bringing Clayton back for the 8th inning?”  To which Joe, said “I get it boss.  I get it!“
• I also talked to another Dodger employee who said that he was convinced (through conversations with common friends) that Randy Wolf would have “almost certainly” accepted arbitration and would have probably gotten around $12 mil (their number, not mine) and that if Wolf  had accepted arbitration, he could have offered the Dodgers a two year deal in the $18 to $20 mil range.  He also went on to say that the Dodgers felt Wolf had his career year and was not worth that.  He acknowledged that O-Dog was not as likely to have accepted arbitration, but that Ned says “When you OFFER arbitration, you had better be prepared to PAY it.”  It’s easy to say the Dodgers should have offered arbitration to Hudson, but IT’S NOT YOUR MONEY!  IT’S EASY TO SPEND OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY!  He also said that Wolf is miserable in Milwaukee…
  

  Ron and I comparing notes on our hip replacements

All-in-all, this was the best blogger night ever. The Dodgers had Roy Cey, Lou Johnson, Kim Ng, Dennis Mannion, Josh Rawitch, Ned Colletti, the High-Life Man and others drop by the suite for conversation.  Mannion was as engaged as he was engaging.  Josh Rawitch did an awesome job in putting this together and you have to give him credit for being way ahead of the curve by getting bloggers involved.

I left feeling that the Dodgers are in good hands with Ned Colletti as GM.  Some talk about Kim Ng and Logan White being GM’s, and while they may or may not ever become one, Ned is the consummate professional in this respect.  He delegates, is through, thoughtful, scientific, personally probing and level-headed – perfect for a GM!  He admits to learning from his mistakes and is not eager to repeat them.  What more can you ask?

Eleven Things That Will Happen  in the Second Half

1. I expect the Dodgers to acquire an arm.  They didn’t have that hitter to get  Cliff Lee that the Rangers did.  Oswalt is still a possibility…. However, Ned plays his cards close to the vest.  Speculation who the Dodgers will get is just that – speculation.  I do predict that they will get a top-of-the-rotation starter.
2. Manny will get hot and carry the team for a spell.  I think Joe will “ease” him back in.
3. Ace?  Clayton Kershaw is just improving little-by-little EVERY start.  Joe is about ready to anoint him the ace.  Clayton will step into the #1 spot after the All-Star Break.  It will be Kershaw, Kuroda, Billingsley and Padilla.  All Ned has to do is find a Number 2 or Number 3, but Oswalt would do too.
4. Ely will return to AAA.  Classic case of the league catching up to him.
5. Rafael Furcal will continue his hot ways.  He only needs a handful of at-bats to qualify for the lead in the batting average race.  He looks like the Young Raffy!  He is the Dodgers spark plug.  It was good to see him make the All-Star team and he deserved it over Reyes anyway.
6. George Cheryl will be given a few more weeks, but the Dodgers can’t continue to ride a limping horse.  At some point, that horse will have to be “put-down” if it can’t recover.
7. Brad Ausmus will be back and play a large role off the bench, both as a backup to Martin and a pinch hitter.
8. Garrett Anderson will have to be replaced by Xavier Paul.  Jon Weisman made an excellent case why Paul is the better choice and why AAA does nothing for him.  By the way, how about the play where Paul threw to the cutoff man and got the runner at the plate?  Good block by AJ too!  AJ is who we thought he was – a .214 hitter.
9. Look for a hot streak by both Ethier and Kemp.  Kemp is climbing out of the doghouse and is slowly getting his act together.
10. The surprise of the second half will be Vicente Padilla, who has some of the best stuff in all of baseball.   I still think this team will win 94-95 games.
11. The pitching will become rock-solid the second half.  Write it down.  You may see some new faces:  McDonald, Troncoso will be back and maybe a pitcher or two acquired by way of trade.  Cheryl and Miller and Ely will likely be gone soon.

Want an Ace?

Would you trade Manny Ramirez, James McDonald and Chris Withrow for Cliff Lee?

Let’s not stop there.  Seattle sucks.  Their re-building is dead.

How about Manny Ramirez, James McDonald, Vicente Padilla, Dee Gordon, Chris Withrow,  Casey Blake, Xavier Paul and Jon Broxton for Cliff Lee and Ichiro Suzuki?

Eight for two!

Then trade an obscure player for Mike Lowell (the Red Sox will pay most of his salary).

Lineup:

1. Suzuki  CF
2. Furcal  SS
3. Kemp  RF
4. Ethier  LF
5. Loney  1B
6. Lowell  3B
7. DeWitt 2B
8. Martin  C

Rotation:

1. Lee
2. Kuroda
3. Kershaw
4. Billingsley
5. Ely

Think that would make the Dodgers “odds-on-favorites” for the Series?

Drink the Kool-Aid!

Drink it NOW!

Matthew McConaughey and John Ely, Brothers?

Earth time – 5/18/2010, 9:00 AM EDT – After winning 8 straight games, and going 13-3 in their last 16 games, the Dodgers are long gone from the “outhouse” (currently occupied by the vastly overrated D’Backs – I told you in Spring Training that they would be horrid), and just 2.0 games from the Penthouse.  With a 21-17 record, they are on pace for 89 wins (if you extrapolate their winning percentage).  I have heard some Dodgers followers (they are not fans) who are actually mad about what is happening because I guess they can’t bash McCourt anymore.  That’s just plain sad!  Maybe they can trash the farm system, as some of the Dodgers top prospects are under-performing (that’s a joke).  I can always tell when the Dodgers win, because very few people post.  I guess they just love the negativity…

At any rate, the Dodger’s pitching, which so many of you complained about, and said that the Dodgers could not win as a result of not getting more pitching and an ACE, is suddenly their strength.  Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda and Ely are pitching as well as any other quartet in baseball and the Dodgers team ERA dropped to 4.35 last night.  Kershaw, Bills and Kuroda – that’s no surprise to me.  John Ely?  What a huge surprise!  This Matthew McConaughey look-alike throws strikes,  is very adept at changing speeds, and is savvy beyond his years.  I think he’ll be a very nice “middle-of-the-rotation” guy for years.  He’s no “flash in the pan” because he doesn’t walk people.  He didn’t have great control last night and he still didn’t walk anyone.

The bullpen which was bleeding early in the season is now slamming doors. Those of you who “knew” this was what it would be like this year, didn’t know anything!  Admit it and enjoy the ride.  Lawdog who has been one of the most vocal dissidents, freely admitted it yesterday: “I don’t mind giving Mark a tip of the hat for being more accurate in his assessment of our talent than me.” Thanks, Lawdog.  You are ‘da man! It’s a long season and anything can happen, but this team has a chance to be very, very good, and contrary to what many have said, it looks like the Dodgers might have improved their pitching during the off-season.

It’s no coincidence that in their eight game winning streak, the Dodgers have only committed one error.  Blake DeWitt is showing improved range at 2B and Jamey Carroll and Casey Blake have been playing like the sure-handed savvy vets that they are.  Quietly, James Loney has stepped up his play at 1B and is becoming a defensive force.    Matt Kemp is back to his Gold Glove play in CF and Reed Johnson brings outstanding Defense every time he plays.

RANTS & RAVES

• Russ Martin has a 12 game hitting streak and is still hitting .265 – 1 hit a game in most cases…
• They say that Xavier Paul projects as a 4th OF because he doesn’t have the requisite power needed by a corner outfielder.  If I remember correctly, Baseball America said the same thing about Andre Ethier.  There is talk the Dodgers will go after Carl Crawford next year.  I’d try Paul first.
• Andre Ethier – Dodger MVP?   NL MVP?
• Hopefully Kuroda will make it Nine in a row tonight.

I was obviously wrong when I said that Joe Torre had lost this team and Rick Honeycutt couldn’t coach anymore.  My deepest apologies to them both – NOW DON’T LET IT HAPPEN AGAIN!

(smile)

• Team ERA is now 4.53 as the Dodgers leapfrogged the Nats to take the 11th spot.  They need to get to the TOP 3 to win it all.
• Andre Ethier broke his right pinkie – regardless of whether he can play or not, they should DL him.  He’s only have to miss 14 more days.  Paul got hit last night and it is not known if he can return.
• Clayton Kershaw didn’t have his good stuff, but  Tony Jackson says that even when Clayton Kershaw doesn’t have his best stuff, he’s still better than most. After the game Clayton said:  ”To be honest, my command really wasn’t that great,” Kershaw said. “I guess I was what you call effectively wild. I didn’t really hit my spots a whole lot, and I just kind of battled through. Really, I only had my fastball.” You are watching history – Clayton is morphing into the Dodgers ACE .  To those of you who say the Dodgers needed an ace, I say “Grow Your Own.”  Clayton is becoming THAT guy, pitching deeper into games and getting by without his best stuff.  By Fall, he’ll be the stater in game 1 of the playoffs.
• Charlie Haegar pitched 5 innings at IE last night.  He’ll probably get one more rehab start and then return (Ortiz?).
• Jamey Carroll Bashers:  Wear paper bags on your heads!  The guy is hitting .300 and playing an effective SS during the Dodgers 6 game winning streak.
• We are no longer the Padres whipping boys.
• Congrats to Larry Bowa and his daughter who graduated from law school – Now go sue somebody!
• Let’s roll, Chad!

UPDATE:  See New Bios in the ABOUT US Section

From multiple unsubstantiated sources it comes that Nick Green will not make the team.  That leaves a few choices and it’s easy for me to pick one.

The choices are:

• Chin-lung Hu
• Xavier Paul
• Russ Ortiz
• AJ Ellis

So, I would pick….

Doug Mientkiewicz!

Tommy said it’s OK!

Today is an off day, but if everything goes right, I will have photos and the inside story of the Camelback Ranch Minor League Complex.  It should be pretty cool and I think you will be

According to Tommy, the Only Angels are in Heaven and They are all Ex-Dodgers

amazed at the facility.

A LOT WHEN ON YESTERDAY – Charlie Haeger pitched 5 or 7 strong innings against minor league competition (they were all over-matched) and Carlos Monasterios got mixed reviews (although his stuff was pretty good).  Jason Repko didn’t do Carlos any favors by dropping what would have been a Sportscenter Top Catch (there’s a reason why he’s a career minor leaguer).  Clayton Kershaw looked good in 5 strong innings (79 pitches after 27 pitches in the first inning), and so did Russ Ortiz (arrrrggggggahhhhh!)

There are a few things to settle, not the least of which is the starting 2B job.   It appear to be Blake DeWitt’s job to lose.  While not as accomplished as Jamey Carroll on defense, his LH bats fits well in the Dodgers lineup.  I would expect that Blake will win the job even though Carroll is hitting a cool .400.

Who will the subs be?  Here’s what I see

1. Carroll – 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF
2. Belliard – 3B, 2B, 1B
3. Anderson – LF, RF
4. Johnson – LF, CF, RF
5. Ausmus – C
   

   Charlie Throwing His Dancer

6. Mientkiewicz - 1B (maybe 3B, LF & RF – depending upon his shoulder)

Mientkiewicz could be the odd man out if the Dodgers want to keep Hu as a true backup SS, or Belliard could be the odd man out (doubtful) if his belly doesn’t get smaller (he’s not at 209, but no one knows how close he is).   I think Carroll will a real key component for us this year.  He can backup Raffy for a game or two at a time, so I see Hu going to AAA again along with Xavier Paul.  Garrett Anderson looks strong, smooth and healthy.

The biggest questions surround the #5 starter.  It’s any body’s guess.  Here are that stats (which is not how the decision will be made).  You have to factor in minor league games, stats and options.  If I had to guess, right now I’d say that Charlie Haeger will be the #5.  That’s my opinion.  What’s yours?

Manny Getting Tuned Up

What’s your take on the 25 man roster?

"$25,000 for Jamie Hoffman? I'll Take Him!"

Torre, Ramirez and Loney headline team of Dodger players on international goodwill trip

PHOENIX – The Los Angeles Dodgers today announced the expected roster for the upcoming three-game series in Taiwan. Additional players may be added or changed prior to the March 10 departure.

The Dodgers will bring 33 players, including 17 with Major League experience, in their first team trip to Taiwan since the 1993 Friendship Series. Manager Joe Torre, left fielder Manny Ramirez and first baseman James Loney will be joined by Taiwan natives Hong-Chih Kuo and Chin-lung Hu, Japan native Robert Boothe and South Korea native Hyang-Nam Choi.

Six players on the roster also made the Dodgers’ historic trip to Beijing, China in 2008 for the first-ever games in that country. They are Kuo, Hu, John Lindsey, Lucas May, Xavier Paul and Eric Stults as well as Torre and coaches Lorenzo Bundy and John Shoemaker.

Lindsey registered the first hit, a single to left field, during the two-game series against the Padres in China.

A complete roster is below, subject to change.

Pitchers (15): RHP Mario Alvarez, LHP Alberto Bastardo, RHP Robert Boothe, RHP Jesus Castillo, RHP Hyang-Nam Choi, RHP John Ely, RHP Francisco Felix, RHP Charlie Haeger, RHP Kenley Jansen, LHP Hong-Chih Kuo, RHP Josh Lindblom, RHP Jon Link, LHP Juan Perez, LHP Eric Stults and RHP Josh Towers.

Catchers (4): J.D. Closser, Gabriel Gutierrez, Lucas May, Jesse Mier

Infielders (8): Ronnie Belliard, Angel Berroa, Jamey Carroll, Chin-lung Hu, John Lindsey, James Loney, Russ Mitchell and Ramon Nivar

Outfielders (6): Brian Barton, Xavier Paul, Manny Ramirez, Prentice Redman, Michael Restovich, Trayvon Robinson

Coaches: Manager Joe Torre, first base coach John Shoemaker, third base coach Lorenzo Bundy, pitching coach Jim Slaton, hitting coach/bench coach Tim Wallach and bullpen catcher Mike Borzello.

THE Chin

Green, Berroa, Carroll, Belliard, Johnson, Repko, Paul,  Hu, DeWitt, Mientkiewicz and Amezaga are all in the running to be “stuntmen.”  

The reality of the matter is that the majority of them will end up at AAA waiting for a call…  If you look at the stats of each (and I shall not bore you), not much jumps out. 

Maybe you can ascertain that Reed Johnson is a professional hitter (if healthy), and maybe you can even say the same about Carroll and Belliard, but Green, Berroa and Amezaga have never been known as hitters.  Missers, maybe.  Hitters?  Hardly!  Barring injury, I think it’s safe to assume that Johnson, Carroll and Belly will make the team.  So will Brad Ausmus. 

That leaves Green, Berroa, Repko, Paul, DeWitt, Hu, Mientkiewicz and Amezaga to fight for one spot.  May the best man win.  For the record, I think Amezaga will prevail (if healthy).

Oh, and sometimes guys like him have an unexplained “career year” only to fade into oblivion the next. 

You never know…

Have you seen “The Chin?”  When Casey Blake stands at 3B, his chin is on the mound.

If the reports are true, and Reed Johnson is going to sign with the Dodgers, I would think that Jason Rekpo is the “odd man out.”  While I like Jason Repko, he has not “seized the day” and shown that he can hit major league pitching.   Johnson is the not the equal of Repko on defense, but he probably won’t run over the shortstop either. 

Reed can play all three outfield positions and while he isn’t a standout, he is solid as a defender.  Average speed, average arm, but experienced, and he is a professional hitter with a .282 career BA and .344 OB%.  He’s a very solid #4 outfielder.  Teams who aren’t trying to win would just go with a guy like Repko.  Experience counts more than skill.  Johnson will be an excellent addition for the Dodgers.  Now, there are two questions:

1. Does Repko get traded or released? and
2. Will X. Paul make the team too?

With Johnson and Paul, we would have an excellent L-R Duo of subs who can play all 3 outfield positions.   That would take up two of the five utility spots we have.  Ausmus has the 3rd spot and Carroll has the 4th spot.  With Belliard almost assured of a spot, that mean that DeWitt and Hu are headed to AAA unless Paul is demoted.  There are lots of options…

In case you haven’t read it, Tony Jackson has an article with a lot of quotes from Logan White and Ned Colletti.  Check it out…

With the Dodgers pitching rotation settled (1-4 and #5 from a plethora of in-house candidates), Ned has now turned his attention to 2B and the utility players.  At last glance, we had Blake DeWitt and Jamey Carroll at 2B, and I am fine with that, but I doubt that Ned is.  Felipe Lopez and Ronnie Belliard are still out there, last time I checked. 

Carroll  and Belliard are not shortstops, and while Lopez has not played SS for a couple of years, he could play the position in a pinch.  The only real SS we have other than Raffy is Hu, and we may or may not be able to keep him because of his bat.  Lopez made $3.5 mil last year and no one is busting down his door.   He might be a bargain, and might be perfect as a #2 hitter for us.  Since he played for St. Louis the last half of 2008, his OB% has been over .400.  He has good speed and can steal a base, although he hasn’t been asked to lately.  I am intrigued with the possibility of Felipe playing 2B for us.  He’s a switch-hitter and sometimes as a guy nears 30, “it’s right place, right time. ”

Our infield would be set with him at 2B and DeWitt able to spell Blake at 3B against tough right-handers.   Carroll becomes a pinch-hitter and relief at 2B  or 3B.  Hu would probably not make the team under that scenario.  We payed about $9 mil last year for a second baseman who is arguably not an upgrade over Lopez.

In the outfield we have Jason Repko and Xavier Paul and while I am fine with both of them, Ned probably isn’t.  Stay tuned!

I made my plans and got my tickets yesterday for Camelback Ranch.  I will be there on March 20th through March 27th.  My wife and son will be flying in on the 25th to see the last 3 games with me.  I haven’t gotten the away game tickets, but I’ll work on that next week.  It’s going to be a great Spring Training.   Like Roger mentioned last week, there seems to be gloom and doom by lots of commenters on this board, but that is not a concept shared by most of the national media (which worries me). 

Ride Manny Ride

There is a Mini-Camp in late January at Camelback and I was going to have Rory (Badger) cover it, but after talking with Josh Rawitch, it looks like there will be no media.  Maybe Badger can rent a helicoptor and fly around taking pictures for us. 

Voldomer will be there from March 8-13 and has said that he will provide updates and photos as well.  Badger lives near there, so hopefully he can do the same.

I plan to have LA LodgerTalk T-Shirts available by the End of January – stay tuned, because they will be VERY COOL!   At a very good price I might add….

Some fans have asked which young players have the best chance of making the team.  Here’s my list (in no particular order):

• Josh Lindblom (middle relief)
• Xavier Paul  (4th OF) – This guy has a bat with a lot of pop (great “gap” power) and the best arm in the organization. 
• Carlos Monasterios  (5th Starter) – He has looked good in the Winter League
• Armando Zerpa (middle relief) – Just because he’s LH and they have to keep him or lose him.
• Brent Leach (middle relief) – We have already seen that he has good stuff… and he’s LH
• Travis Schlichting (middle relief) – See Brent Leach, but he’s not LH

Jon Link, Chin-lung Hu, Scott Elbert (who may not be rookies), Jason Repko and AJ Ellis also have a crack at making the team.

Several sources have reported that Jason Repko signed a $500,000.00 deal with the Dodgers to avaoid arbitration.   Just a few weeks ago, most bloggers were saying that he would be “non-tendered.” 

Below is the Spring Training Schedule

Here’s a great analysis about Jason Repko from Phil Gurnee of TrueBlueLa:

Based on what Ned Colletti is saying, Jason Repko appears to be staying around for the moment. With the Dodgers trying very hard to trade Juan Pierre and his contract for either a starting pitcher or a 2nd baseman the battle for who becomes the Dodger fourth outfielder looks to come down to Jason Repko or Xavier Paul.  It would seem a given that Paul is the better candidate to be the fourth outfielder but is he?

Xavier Paul does everything as well as Repko in the field. Repko is faster on bases. What Paul does not  do well is hit LHP.  He hits RHP as well as Repko hits LHP but my argument is that this team needs someone to caddy for Andre.  If Manny was to get hurt, then I’d bring up Paul to be the everyday LF not Repko, but for a guy off the bench Repko might be that guy.

Jason Repko does many things well that you would look for in a backup outfielder. The thing he does best however is mash LHP.  His slug% against LHP over the last three minor league season has been greater then .585 every year and twice it has topped .600.  The Dodgers have a need for guy who can hit LHP and play RF. Repko can be that guy. What he can’t do is hit RHP, so the Dodgers will need to have a guy like Minky on the bench who can handle that role.

The Dodgers starting outfield is Manny, Kemp, and Andre. Of those three only one has a serious chink in their armor. That chink is that Andre does not hit left handed pitching very well. For his career Andre has a 200 point split in his OPS between facing RHP and LHP. Last year that split widened to .926 compared to .629. Part of the problem the Dodgers had last year with Pierre on the bench was that we could not use Pierre in RF to sit Andre against some LHP. The gain in moving Kemp to RF and Pierre to CF,with the left handed Pierre facing left handed pitching just wasn’t worth it.

They both can play all the positions of the outfield, they both have plus speed, and they both have guns for arms. So that is how they are the same. How they are different is probably why I think that Repko might be the better fit for a fourth outfielder role.

Keeping Repko is a bsaeball decision, obviously not a $$$$ decision

Dylan Hernandez reports that the Dodger have decided not to sell Eric Stults to Japan.  Another baseball decision.

I think that Pierre will be gone soon and Repko and Paul will be our extra outfielders.

Coming up soon:

Logan White and De Jon Watson discuss the Dodgers Minor Leagues and players like Lambo and Gordon.  Watch for it on Friday right here on LAdodgertalk.com

It’s no secret that the McCourts are in the midst of a messy divorce, but would things be any different if Frank and Jamie were still together?

Would that have caused the Dodgers to offer arbitration to Randy Wolf and/or Orlando Hudson?  Would that have caused the Dodgers to sign Wolf?  Well, no one can be sure, but do you really want 3 years of Randy Wolf?  I mean, two years ago and even last year, many of you didn’t want him back. 

Yeah, the Randy Wolf of 2009 was pretty nice, so nice that he earned the Type A Free Agent Rating, but what are the odds that he stays healthy or continues his level of success in 2010, 2011 and 2012?  I would say the odds are not good.  That’s just my opinion, but I don’t see him as a workhorse.  I do see a guy who could say that he was a Type A Free Agent who had better stats that D-Lowe, and D-Lowe makes $15 mil a year.  That was the most that Wolf stood to make – $15 mil a year, but if he would have asked for, say $13 million a year, he would have had a decent shot at it, especially if the Dodgers offered less than $10 million. 

You might say that the Brewers offered him about $30 mil over 3 years, but what makes you so sure they would have offered the contract if they had to give up compensation?  You don’t know, and there is no way to ever know, but it’s circular thinking to think it would have happened the same way.   I think the Dodgers decided (change that – I know that the Dodgers decided that they did not want to give Randy Wolf a multi-year deal in the $10 mil per year range and they felt he would accept arbitration because (1) he knew he could get $11-15 mil in arbitration ($15 mil is probably too high, but maybe not); and (2) they did not want to commit to a multi-year deal with him.  This is all conjecture, but offering arbitration would have changed the whole dynamic. 

For similar reasons, Orlando Hudson, who did not want to come back to LA, would have jumped at a chance for a $10 million payday.  He was an All-Star and Gold Glove 2B on multiple occasions, and again – a case could be made that he could command up to $10 million a year.  Likely?  MAYBE NOT, BUT POSSIBLE!   It is an extreme example, but it’s possible that the Dodgers could have had 25% of their $100 million payroll tied up with two players.  Again, it may not have been likely, but it was a scenario that the Dodgers had to consider as possible.  If that had happened it would have crippled the Dodgers ability give raises to their youngsters.

Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson made us better in 2009, but I have reason to believe that one of our youngsters can step in and fill their shoes.   McDonald, Troncoso, Elbert, Lindblom and Haeger are in the mix for the first 2 spots behind Billingsley, Kershaw and Kuroda.  Again, come July, more arms will be on the market at a cheaper price.  I see nothing wrong with trying the youngsters and then shopping in July, if necessary.  Should Ned tell you that?  Why play your cards?  This team is going to be very good next year, if only because our players are another year older and more mature.  Blake DeWitt is a “Ballplayer” at 2B, and I would not even sniff at Belliard or Carroll, unless it’s as a utility-man.

Manny Ramirez will also be playing for a new contract and I think he will return with a vengeance.  I also don’t see the Dodgers buying-down Pierre’s contract.  They will keep him or trade him for a pitcher with a “bad contract.”  I still hope for Harang (because I think he has a higher upside than Arroyo), but who knows?  The Dodgers still need bench help, but we already have Xavier Paul, Jason Repko, Juan Pierre and Chin-lung Hu.  Brad Ausmus is a strong possibility again,  and so all we need is another RH infield bat – not Craig Counsell who is LH.

So, back to the question first propounded – would things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  I can’t answer that, but I will ask, should things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  This is a business and is it prudent to sign players like Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones or, for that matter, Manny Ramirez?  I say no.  I am on record this time last year as saying the Dodgers should not sign Manny (something for which I was castigated), but Manny was mostly a “non-factor.”  Go after “Blue Chip” Players, not “cow chip” players.  If we had went after C.C. Sabathia instead of Manny, we would be talking right now about Hudson or Wolf, and we might have won the Series last year. 

I say that when it comes to Free Agents – Go BIG or Stay Home!  Think about it!  There are no “BIG” ones this year, so we should stay home.  Quit trying to “make a silk purse out of a sows ear.”  So, if you are one of the naysayers who say “The Dodgers Won’t Win With The Pitchers They Have,”  You are probably the same ones who told me the Dodgers wouldn’t win without Manny. They didn’t win WITH him.

… of hitters!  I mean, think about it – who do the Dodgers really have that is a major league hitting prospect who looks like  Gordon, maybe Lambo – that’s it.    Gordon has a crazy huge upside, and while I still like Lambo, this is his “make or break” year.  He has to start raking.  He regressed last year, but looked better in the AFL.   It’s wake up-time for him.

• Ivan DeJesus, Jr.?  Not enough pop to justify his lack of speed.  Forget him as a starter at 2B, and he’s certainly not a starting SS.  Utilityman is the best he will be.
• Trayvon Robinson?  4th Outfielder, although he could possibly play LF, if we needed a leadoff hitter, but Gordon should fill that role in two years, so Robinson looks like a 4th outfielder to me.
• Xavier Paul?  This guy could surprise – if there’s a sleeper here, it is the X-Man!
• Lucas May?  He’s not that good as a Catcher and his bat is probably less than Martins.  That doesn’t bode well for him.
• Kyle Russell?  He’ll need at least three more years.  He’s too far away to project anything, although he has crazy power.
• Pedro Baez?  He’ll be on the mound before the season is over!  He can’t hit, but he has a cannon on his shoulder.
• Scott Van Slyke?  He had a nice year, but let’s see him do it at a higher level, then I might say he’s a prospect, but right now, he’s not!
• Brian Cavazos-Galvez?  Jonathan Garcia?  Steven Caseres?   Gorman Erickson?  Too early.  Way too early to even predict, but I lean towards NO!  Don’t get excited.
• Jerry Sands?  Career AA Player!
• Tony Delmonico?  Not as a Catcher, well he doesn’t look like a Catcher.  He has a bat that could be good.  Can he play 2B?
• Austin Gallagher?  Ha!
• Nick Buss?  Probably not!  No, NOT!
• Preston Mattingly?  Please!
• AJ Ellis?  Sub, probably a #3
• Jamie Hoffman?  5th or 7th OF.

The cupboard is bare right about now, which is precisely why the Dodgers need to offer arbitration to Wolf and Hudson.  We should find out very soon.  They need to start drafting some hitters.  Fortunately, the Dodgers are stocked with good young arms, which I shall address in my next column.

Just in case you haven’t figured it out, attendance at Dodger Stadium is not the only source of income for the Dodgers.  While their have attendance has been stellar,

Hu's on the team

 most other teams  have seen substantial declines in attendance, which means that the Dodgers get a smaller cut of the gate and concessions.  It is not clear what the amount of the decline is to me, but I estimate it at around $15 to $20 million a year.  Couple that with MLB Apparel and Memorabilia sales declines and the Dodgers could be losing as much as $20 to $25 million a year in revenue as a result of the recession.  It may get better next year.  It may not.  Some teams (can you say Cincinnati Reds?) are looking to dump payroll.  The Dodgers are looking to stay level or even drop payroll.  I have an idea:

How about Juan Pierre, James McDonald, Ivan DeJesus, Jr., and Blake DeWitt to the Reds for either Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips?  Up-shoot:  The Reds save $10 mil a year and get some prospects (along with a  leadoff hitter – Dusty Baker loves Pierre) and the Dodgers spend only an extra $10 mil to get an “inning eater” pitcher and a 2B.  Next, the Dodgers should offer Hudson and Wolf arbitration, making it clear to Hudson that Phillips is the 2B, and if he won his arbitration case he’d be a backup.  Hudson would decline arbitration, but Wolf could accept.  That’s fine!

Dole out the raises to the youngsters and the Dodgers are done!  Our rotation would look something like this:

1. Kershaw
2. Billingsley
3. Kuroda
4. Arroyo/Harang
5. Wolf or Heager

Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Phillips  2B
7. Loney  1B
8. Blake 3B

I could live with that!  Harang makes $11.5 mil next year and Arroyo makes $11 mil, so pick ‘em.  You never know – they could be a dud or they could be a Godsend!  Sometimes you have to roll the dice.  Castro is headed to Philly and Hu is the logical backup infielder.  Xavier Paul, Jason Repko and Jamie Hoffman are candidates for two outfield spots.  Ausmus may or may not play for a million next year, but if he doesn’t Ellis or another bargain Free Agent will be available. 

The Dodgers should be able to field an excellent team for under (or around) $100 million.  Harang and Arroyo’s average years are not what I expect.  I would hope for a “carrer year” for whichever one come to LA.  You gotta’ believe!  The “kids” will be year better next and Martin and Loney will “breakout.”  Believe it!

GoodNews/BadNews:

• Bud Selig will be commissioner at least 3 more seasons.
• The Marlins are shopping Josh Johnson… Hummmmmm, I may have to revise my thinking…

The Dodgers have improved over 2008.   They won more games, but they still couldn’t get past the Phillies, and the Phillies will still be good next year.  I suspect that Raul Ibanez had his career year and will slip back to reality next year and the Phillies will have some holes to fill, just like the Dodgers.  Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have a former ace who needs to come back and I believe both will.  It would not surprise me to see either one win a Cy Young Award in the future, even as easly as next year.  I fully expect Hamels and Billingsley to both win 16-18 games next year.  Both pitchers have too much talent.

Manny will return as Manny, because he’s playingfor Manny,  and the Dodgers should benefit from his quest for a new contract, in what will certainly be his last year as a Dodger.  Look for Manny to hit .320+ with 35 HR and 130 RBI.  I look for more growth by Kemp and Ethier as both become perennialAll-Stars.   Russ Martin?  He’ll be back with a vengeance!  Count on it!    I do see two areas in which the Dodgers need to improve:  They need more power from 3B and 1B and they will get it from James Loney at 1B, who I believe will hit around 25 dingers.  He has shown he is capable.  3B is another issue.  Casey Blake had a better year than I expected, but he’s still a journeyman at best.   We need a big HR bat at 3B and will will get robbed if we try and trade or one.  Here’s what we do:  Sign Adrian Beltre!  Sign Adrian Beltre.   He loves LA and is a cinch to hit 30 for the Dodgers.  Yeah, I know you don’t believe me, but he will!    If you want to look at stats, then I’ll use the year he hit 48 HR as a stat!  He’s young enough that we can sign him to a 5 year deal.   That means we need to dump Blake, and we can do that in a deal for Roy Halliday. I purpose that we trade Jon Broxton, Casey Blake, James McDonald, Ethan Martin,  and Chris Withrow to Toronto for Roy Halliday (pay a lot, get a lot).  I am not a Blake hater, but we need to get younger and better at 3B! Read the full story

 This team is far from needing rebuilding, but any good team needs to ”retool” every year.  Last year, the Phillies won the World Series with Pat Burrell in LF.  They evidently decided

Must Be A Padre Fan...

 that he wasn’t the answer this year, so they signed a guy even older who ended up having his career year.   The Phillies may yet be sorry that they signed Raul Ibanez, but right about now, that move is looking pretty good.    They added Shane Victorino and Jason Werth in 2005 and 2007 as key pieces to the puzzle.  How did they get them?  No Big Blockbuster Deals, just incidental signings, which turned out to be pretty good.    I don’t think we need to rebuild – the core of the team is in place, but re-tool, we must!

I have taken the 40-Man Roster, plus some others who are technically not on it and divided them into three (3) groups:

1. Core players who we need to keep – in BLUE;
2. Players who we needs to keep under the right conditions – in BLACK; and
3. Players we need to try and lose, trade, release or not sign – in RED.

It’s not hard to see that our core is young and will get even better.  I have Jon Broxton on the BLUE list (even though I have serious doubts about him), because we don’t currently have better options (that too could change).  Now, I am not saying that I wouldn’t trade Broxton or some of the others, but it would have to be a trade that we would make from a point of strength.  Read the full story

Juan Pierre - 3rd Place in Dodger MVP Race?

Now that we have clinched a playoff spot and are within two games of  clinching the NL West Championship, I think it is time to shift the emphasis from our starters, namely Russell Martin, James Loney, Orlando Hudson, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, and recognize the Stuntmen.  Actually, this year they go by the moniker “Bomb Squad.”

It’s appropriate to start with Brad Ausmus, who has appeared in 35 games and sports a .301 Batting average, which is the highest of his career for the defensive specialist.  However, the veteran presence and clubhouse camaraderie fostered by Brad (who, by the way is a REAL smart guy) is hard to quantify.  Ned got his money’s worth on Ausmus play, but his clubhouse presence is priceless.  Ditto on Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Loretta (who swooned mid-season, but seems to be heating-up again), and Juan Castro, who has hit a solid .288, filled in defensively for Raffy and has been an all-round stabilizing influence on this team. Blake DeWitt has to get a hand for bouncing up and down like a yo-yo between AAA and the big club.  He certainly didn’t have the offensive year we expected, but he played 3B, SS and 2B and never complained.  His stock hasn’t dropped in my eyes.  Blake DeWitt is a ballplayer.  Others made some contribution, such as Xavier Paul, AJ Ellis, and Jim Thome who delivered in the clutch last night.  Let’s not forget the late season heroic of Ronnie Belliard, who has hit as many HR in a few weeks for the Dodgers as he did all year for the Nats.

Last, but not least – I saved the best for last is Juan Pierre, who is some respects has been one of the most valuable Dodgers.  Behind Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre has to be somewhere around 3rd in Dodger MVP votingfor what he did while Manny was suspended and how he has played all year.  He just shows up (early), shuts up (no complaints) and steps up (in 360 AB’s he has hit .311 with a .371 OB%, stole 27 bases and scored 56 runs).   Juan Pierre is the Captain of the Bomb Squad! Read the full story