Baseball seems to put Spring in your step when Spring is in the air.  It’s been a long, cold winter here – I usually enjoy the winter, but my surgeon told me that the first winter would be rough on my hip and it has been a bear.  Stiff, sore and constantly aware of it, I am.  I am counting the days until Florida – March 7th, and then Camelback on March 20-27th.  I will have the Spring back in my step when the Boys of Summer start reporting tomorrow. 

“Pitchers & Catchers, Start Your Engines.”

 Here are a few things to chew on until then:

• Jon Weisman reports that Ned Colletti said he believed that Randy Wolf would have accepted the Dodgers offer of arbitration (which is something I have been telling you for some time now).  According to Jon, Ned offered the following:

“The reason (we didn’t offer arbitration) was we thought he would take it.  At $12-13 million a year, we weren’t prepared to do that. And you know what, the people I’ve talked to since, that are very close to him, say that ‘You know what, he would have taken it.’ And I wasn’t prepared to pay him $12-13 million for one year, nor was I prepared to pay him $8 or $9 million for three years.”

Now, I suppose if you have been in the camp where you have accused McCourtof being Cheap and now wanting to sign draft picks (which is absurd) you now have the options of choosing one of three responses in order to save face, especially after what happened with Orlando Hudson: 

1. “Ned is a liar.  He doesn’t really think that!”
2. “Ned doesn’t have a clue.  He doesn’t know of what he speaks.”
3. “Maybe Ned know more than me.  Maybe he’s closer to the situation than me and knows more than I do.”

You pick it! 

• Tony Jackson of ESPN/Los Angeles reports that the Dodgers have signed Eric Gagne to a minor league deal.  The question on the table, is not whether he is “Game Over” but whether his “Game is Over.”   You can speculate all you want, but we will see in the Spring or Summer.  It would be great to see him return to the mound in LA, but that seems like a long-shot.  In part, Tony writes:

Gagne received offers from the Dodgers and Colorado Rockiesafter separate throwing sessions in front of club officials, although multiple sources said his session for the Rockies was underwhelming. Not that it mattered, because Gagne had made it clear to the Dodgers that he preferred to pitch for them.

The move carries virtually no financial risk because it includes no guaranteed major league money unless Gagne makes the club in spring training, and it is difficult to envision him accepting a minor league assignment if he doesn’t. The deal contains an escape clause, allowing Gagne to again become a free agent if he doesn’t make the team, something that is fairly standard for minor league deals signed by major league veterans.

They say you can never go home again!  Who is “They?”

• What better option than to have Joe Torre hit Matt Kemp #2?   30 HR/30 SB/40 Doubles/10 Triples to go with a .300 BA and 100 RBI would be nice in the number two spot!
• There comes a time, when you have to just trust your minor league system to supply you with the answers you are seeking.  This is especially true with pitching and our #5 starter, in particular.  Starting this year, we have about 15-20 pitchers who will be “major league ready” by 2012.  They will start filtering in as soon as NOW.  I like Stults or Haeger for the #5 spot right now (subject to change).
• Whether the Dodgers contend for the Championship will depend a lot upon which Manny Ramirez we get.
• I believe the most OVERRATED team in baseball is the Colorado Rockies. 
• As your stomach turns:  Jamie McCourt has asked for about $1 mil a month in temporary support, according to Bill Shaikin of The LA Times.  Sounds about right to me. 
• If you pay players $25 mil a year and want to take $30 mil a year home, well that’s your business.  It is a business afterall…

Since the Dodgers failed to offer arbitration the Hudson and Wolf, I have heard such incessant crying and complaining about the Dodgers failure to do so and how stupid it was.  Right about now, I am going to publish what Jon Weisman  wrote today at his new gig at ESPN Los Angeles, where he has evidently softened his stance on the arbitration issue as well.  Take the time and read the article, where he ends up saying:

There’s got to be a middle ground in there with Hudson somewhere. Given the doubts about him and the price for which he signed, which was about $3-5 million less than what he might have won in a salary arbitration case with the Dodgers, maybe there’s more justification for the team not offering him salary arbitration than I originally allowed for. Thoughts are still in flux.

I have been telling you knuckleheads this for quite some time.  Think about it.  Would it have been smart to devote $10 mil to O-Dog?   He’s a nice player, but he obviously isn’t all that.  Yes, he’ll help Minnesota, and I might have wanted him at $5 mil, but the injury factor and diminishing skill factor has to be considered.  Those of you who say he wouldn’t have accepted arbitration because he didn’t like the way Torre treated him are way out of touch.  I can give you $10 million reasons why he would have accepted arbitration.  Also, how can you be mad when you slump and are replaced by a guy who OPS’s over 1.000?  You can’t say a damn thing and O-Dog didn’t! 

Randy Wolf had his career year last year – watch and see what he does this year.  We have a exciting group of young players, some of whom will step-up and seize the day.  Why do you make yourself miserable by hating on an owner who has gotten the Dodgers to  the playoffs more frequently than EVER in the past, and has built a great young team?  

 ”But he isn’t spending enough on draft picks and international scouting…” 

Tour Camelback Ranch and tell me he’s not spending money.  It’s temporary!  We will spend again.  This too shall pass.  Don’t make me keep questioning your sanity!

You will probably say “Yeah but…” 

It’s time to put a sock in it.  I’m sick of it.  Let it play out.  If you want to be miserable , do it on your own time.  Get your own blog.  It wearisome to me!

I am not saying the Dodgers will win the World Series, but we have a good shot.  This team will contend, and when it’s all said and done, that’s what it’s about!  Now, if I am wrong, then come back after the season and remind me.

By the way, the Smart Money is on the Colts – Give the points. 

• The Orioles have signed Joe Guzman to a minor league deal.  Is he Jack Cust?  Maybe.  Maybe not!  Do you remember when…?
• Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin, Manny and Furcal should be better,  Blake should be the same.  DeWitt/Carroll/Belliard may be worse than 2B last year (maybe not).  How does that make us not as good as last year?  Is this the new math?
• Carlos Santana (who has been “annointed” the chosen one) has never played above AA.  Who knew?
• Steven Johnson (the pitcher in the Sherrill trade) was released and is now a Giant.  Steve, We’ll blast you if you come to the Ravine.
• The Cincinnati Reds are going to surprise you. 
• To those of you who think the Dodgers didn’t affer arbitration to Wolf and Hudson because they couldn’t afford it:  “GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF WHEREVER IT IS.”
• The Cubs will tank again and Sweet Lou will be given the pink slip by August.
• The Dodgers and the Cards will play in the NLCS.
• Roy Halladay will win 7 games this year.  Cliff Lee will win the AL Cy Young.
• Camelback will be a “hoot” this Spring.
• Who wants a LaDdodgerTalk polo and what size?
• Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson were 50-50 odds to accept arbitration.  I know these things!
• Raffy will have his best year ever in 2010, with only 16 stolen bases.
• Vicente Padilla will have more wins and a better ERA than Randy Wolf.
• The Rockies will win 82 games.
• Andre Ethier will win the NL MVP.
• Chad Billingsley will be the Chad we USED to know.
• Who ‘dat?  Colts ‘dat!  Yes they are!

Some people are saying that the Dodgers are a .500 team (when I say “some people” I don’t mean “informed baseball people”), which I think is just plain delusional.  I think sometimes Dodger fans fail to take into consideration that change is inevitable, and often, it is good.  Will everything be OK?  Seth Godin summed it up today by saying:

It’s natural to seek reassurance. Most of us want to believe that the choices we make will work out, that everything will be okay.

Artists and those that launch the untested, the new and the emotional (and I’d put marketers into all of these categories) wrestle with this need all the time. How can we proceed knowing that there’s a good chance that our actions will fail, that things might get worse, that everything won’t end up okay? In search of solace, we seek reassurance.

So people lie to us. So we lie to ourselves.

No, everything is not going to be okay. It never is. It isn’t okay now. Change, by definition, changes things. It makes some things better and some things worse. But everything is never okay.

Finding the bravery to shun faux reassurance is a critical step in producing important change. Once you free yourself from the need for perfect acceptance, it’s a lot easier to launch work that matters.

Will the Dodgers be OK?  We are so much in the middle of the Forest that we can’t see the trees, or is it we can’t see the Forest for the trees?  I will leaf that alone.  What I will say is that we often look at how a player performed last year and extrapolate that into the next.  What we fail to factor in is that we have a very young team and these guys often get better by leaps and bounds.  In some cases you can count on it.  I think we forget how far some of our young player have come, how much they have matured and how they will almost certainly continue down that same path. 

In the middle of the long, cold winter, I usually pick-up a copy of Lindy’s Fantasy Baseball(I never play it myself), because over the years, I have found that their takes are pretty close to the reality.  I don’t know for sure, but I think that they use a variety of statistical analysis as well as scouting resources to reach their conclusions.  At any rate, I have read them for many years and their accuracy rate is exceptional when predicting what players might do.  I thought I’d share a few of their predictions:

• Russell Martin is the 7th Highest Ranked Catcher in Baseball behind Soto, Posada, Wieters, McCann, Martinez and Mauer – no surprise there. He is rated ahead of Suzuki, Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, Yadier Molina,  Chris Iannetta and Mike Napoli.  I caught a lot of heat from some of you for ranking him that high, but you can see I’m not the only one!   (Projection:  .269/9 HR/58 RBI/470 AB)  Comments:  “He inexplicably morphed into Jason  Kendall with slightly more pop, slipping even in stolen bases, a category he once dominated.  He’ll either return to fantasy relevance or fade into oblivion this season.”
• James Loneyis the 15th Highest Rated First Baseman is Baseball ranked ahead of Chris Davis, Paul Konerko, Adam LaRoche, Jorge Cantu, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Casey Kotchman and Aubrey Huff (Projection:  .281/18 HR/30 DBL/92 RBI) Comments:  “There’s a lack of sizzle and a whole lot of Mark Grace going on here.  A more critical peek at his numbers reveals Loney is becoming more patient (70 walks last season), suggesting a brighter future.  He’s due for a spike … don’t bet on an explosion.”
• Of course, the Dodgers don’t have anyone rated at 2B, but I do hope they give Blake DeWitt the opportunity.  If he and Carroll can’t cut it, then we can make a deal.  Second-basemen are a dime a dozen and that All-Star you all wanted back (Orlando Hudson) is only the 16th rated at his position (and he wants $9 mil a year?  HA!).
• Casey Blake is ranked #17 at 3B, right ahead of Casey McGhee, Andy LaRoche, Garrett Atkins, Jhonny Peralta, Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigington and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  (Projection:  .276/18 HR/ 76 RBI).  The words they use as “consistent” and “solid.”  Certainly, he ’s no star, but we could do worse.  
• Raffy Furcal is ranked the #14 SS and Lindys calls him “No longer an elite fantasy option, as injuries have robbed him of his speed and power.”  (Projection: .283/10 HR/51 RBI/15 SB)  If he can put up those numbers with a .360 OB%, we will be fine. “Hurry up Dee Gordon!”
• Ryan Braun is rated the #1 outfielder, but #2 is none other than our Matt Kemp (Projection: .302/35 DBL/8 TRIP/31 HR/105 RBI/38 SB).  Those are “elite” numbers.  Andre Ethier is rated #16 (Projection: .293/36 DBL/30 HR/102 RBI) and Manny Ramirez is #18 (Projection: .302/26 HR/86 RBI).  They say that they still believe “Ethier will win a batting title” and that “Manny still has an elite batting eye and isn’t done being relevant in our game.”  If that prediction holds up for our outfielders, the Dodgers should be very good offensively.  In fact, that should be baseballs best offensive outfield.
• When it comes to pitching, Lindys has Clayton Kershaw at #16, just ahead of Cliff Lee!  Chris Carpenter was #15.  Other pitchers ranked behind Kershaw are:  Vazquez, Cain, Beckett, Jimenez, Webb, Peavy, Shields and Lackey who was rated #25, just ahead of Chad Billingsley at #26.  (Projections:  Kershaw- 16-6/2.88 ERA /198 IP/156 H/210 K/1.24 WHIP; Billingsley – 14-11/3.72 ERA/202 IP/180 H/188 K/1.29 WHIP).  Here’s what they say about Clayton:  “He’s a still a work in progress, last summer adding a slider to compliment his mid-90’s fastball and all-world curveball.  Check out Fangraphs.com for more on his slider and put a check next to his name on your cheatsheet.  He’s going to be unstoppable in the very near future.”  Yeah, like maybe in 2010?  Billingsley was rated ahead of the likes of Baker, Garza, Rodriguerz, Lilly, Weaver, Dempster, Nolasco, Anderson, Oswalt, Burnett, Bucholz, Jurrjens, Danks, Jackson and Harden.  They regards the 2nd half of 2009 as a “hiccup.”  Hiroki Kuroda was ranked #49, ahead of Hudson, Kazmir, Maine, Sherzer, Saunders, Pineiro, Zambrano and Randy Wolf (who was #65, and they predict 10 wins with an ERA over 4.00 for him).  They project Kuroda at 11-8 with a 3.63 ERA/182 IP and ad WHIP of 1.20.  Of Kuroda they said “his underlying numbers are solid and the injuries were not arm-related.“  Vicente Padilla weighed in at #96 (not bad for a #4), just behind Jon Garland at #95.  They project him at 12-10 with a 4.33 ERA and 169 IP with a 1.43 WHIP.
• Which brings us to Jon Broxton, ranked #5 as a closer.  Here’s the crux of what they say about him (sounds like what I say):  “Perhaps a visit with a sports psychologist is in order…”  ‘Nuff said!  George Sherrill is rated #40 and Lindys thinks he could close more on the road, especially against LH’ers (where Brox has his issues).

So, while Lindy’s is not Bill James or Fangraphs, it’s still very useful, and I have found that their projections are quite accurate.  I think a lot of Dodger fans depreciate the value of a lot of our young players, as well as our role-players.  The 2010 Version of the LA Dodgers is destined to be VERY, VERY GOOD!  Now, depending upon what happens with the divorce, we could be buyers in August.  Get ready for a great season!  I see at leat 93 wins!

DODGER NEWS:

• Jon Weisman has an excellent post on the Dodgers lack of resources at this juncture.
• The Phillies have $130 million committed to 14 players in 2011, which means they may not be abale to sign Jason Werth.  Hummmm…
• The Dodgers could sign Noah Lowery as soon as NOW!

After the addition of Vicente “Gunsmoke” Padilla, Ned Colletti said that it was unlikely that the Dodgers would sign another starter.   Why would they want another starter?  If they can’t get a 5th starter from this list, then they should just quit:  Charlie Haeger, Scott Elbert, Eric Stults and Carlos Monasterios.  I won’t stoop to including Russ Ortiz in that list, although I imagine he’s got a real long-shot at it.   I think it will boil down to Stults and Haeger, but you never know what can happen in the Spring.

What are the odds that Padilla has a better year than Wolf?  Pretty good, I predict!  Padilla has every reason in the world to act right, train hard, pitch good and step up.  If he wins 12-15 games with a sub 4.00 ERA, he’ll be in line for a bigger payoff next year.  It is in situtaions such as this that starters like Padilla can put up their “career year.”

It appears to me that James McDonald is going to pitch out of the pen this year.  I thought that there might be chance that Troncoso would be given a shot at starting, but with the wave of youngsters we have at A headed to AA and beyond (Withrow, Martin, Miller, Eovaldi, Gould and others), McDonald, Troncoso and even Lindblom could be slotted as relievers. 

George Sherrill is still a candidate to be moved – probably in the Summer when someone needs a closer. 

As for me, I’m rooting for Eric Stults.  Indiana Boys have to stick together.

Last off-season, I predicted that it would not be Manny who made the team better, but rather “the kids.” 

Little did I know what would happen to Manny and how he would later struggle.  If the Manny Ramirez of 2008 had played in 2009, the Dodgers might still be shaking the confetti out of their shoes, because the kids made huge strides. 

Well, some did (Kershaw, Kemp, Ethier), some stayed the same (Loney, Broxton) and some regressed (Martin and Billingsley).  I am here to once again submit that Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson would not make us World Series Champs in 2010, but again, it on the kids – Kemp and Loney and Kershaw have to keep marching toward greatness.  Billingsley and Martin have to return to form and Broxton and Loney need to crank it up another notch. 

I believe we have at least four good starting pitchers on our team, but what might win it for us is a late spring or trade deadline deal.  Come July, we may have to decide if we want to trade Chris Withrow, Ivan DeJesus, Jr.  and Andrew Lambo for someones Ace!  Of course, that depends upon a lot of factors, including how those players are doing, but we have the horses to do a deal. 

The Dodgers didn’t want to pay Randy Wolf, who is a guy who averages 148 IP  a year and has a career 4.13 ERA, a long-term deal and they didn’t want to get stuck paying him even $9 mil a year.  There were time last year when Randy Wolf was our best pitcher, but in 2010, he could just as easily be our #5 or worse yet, injured!  If Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda and Haeger can pitch 800 innings, Randy Wolf will be a distant memory.

The Mets who are intent on spending money, recently had their GM recently say that their starting rotation would be Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and Jonathon Niese.  Santana has arm issues and the rest hardly strike fear into anyone’s hearts.  I think WE can do better, by standing pat for the time being.  Dodger fans are crying “Wolf” but come July, they may find they have been out-foxed!  Sometimes the best moves you make are the ones you don’t. 

MORE NEWS:

Interesting List of Top Dodger Prospects by John Sickels.  Here’s a quote from the post:

The Dodgers are strong on the pitching side: Martin and Miller could both be B+ guys a year from now, maybe even an A- if their command really sharpens up. Withrow could rank as the number one prospect ahead of Dee Gordon if you prefer pitching to hitting. His ceiling is terrific, although I’d like to see his walk rate come down. He has Homer Bailey-like risk if they rush him too fast. Elbert’s stuff is right up there with the other pitchers, but there are enough chinks in his armor (command, health history) to keep his grade slightly lower in my mind. I’m probably higher on Gould than some folks, but I see him in the same mold as the others if he develops properly. Other live arms such as Jansen, Eovaldi, Webster, and Wallach all have significant potential but enough doubts or lack of data right now to keep their ratings in the C+ range.

The hitters are led by the electric Dee Gordon, who will need some time to put his game together but has big upside. Possible comp: Rafael Furcal, circa 2000-2006. DeJesus doesn’t have the same ceiling but still has a chance to be a very useful player if his leg is OK. I haven’t given up on Lambo yet, not at age 21.

The hitting in beyond that is thin: there is a mixture of tools guys and polish guys, but they all have questionmarks of one sort of another. Adding some additional impact hitting depth for the system seems like a good idea; we’ll have to see if they address that in the 2010 draft.

Trades and graduations have thinned the system out, but overall I think Logan White and his staff do a fine job and the potential for a quick recharge seems good to me.

Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts made a good point yesterday when he asked: 

Honestly, if the Dodgers had done nothing to this point except offer Wolf and Hudson arbitration — if they had gotten those draft picks as compensation, made no roster additions and were just waiting out the market to sign a No. 4 starter at a good price, I don’t think many of us would have complained, right?

He then went on to say:

The question assumes that Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson would have turned down salary arbitration, which I think was likely if not certain. If one or both had accepted, I suppose we would have seen what the Dodgers payroll was really made of. Possibly the Dodgers would have salary-dumped someone like George Sherrill for prospects — essentially reversing this summer’s acquisition of him — which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Possibly the Dodgers would have just sucked up the additional cost, even if it meant their off-season was over before it began.

I agree that it was likely that Wolf and Hudson would have turned down arbitration, but it was not certain.  That’s the rub – “likely” but not “certain.”   First of all, let’s get the part that the Dodgers didn’t want to pay a first round pick, out of the way.  Depending upon who Wolf and Hudson signed with (assuming they would have been signed), the Dodgers would have probably had to pay around $3,000,000.00 for the picks (combined, more or less).  If you think the reason was that they didn’t want to pay the draft picks $3 mil and that it wasn’t the possibility that they would have to pay $20 mil to Wolf and Hudson, then you might as well stop reading right here.  You have issues!    The Dodgers aren’t broke, but they are strapped for cash.  $3 mil they could handle.  $20 mil?  No way!

It may have been a 10% chance that Wolf and Hudson would have accepted arbitration or it may have been a 40% chance they would have accepted it.  I don’t know and you don’t know and Jon Weisman doesn’t know.  We all have our own ideas, but NO ONE KNOWS!  That much is a fact!  Look, the Dodgers simply didn’t want to take the risk that Wolf and Hudson “might” accept arbitration, because it’s possible they would have gotten $20 mil between them and that would have tied 20% of the Dodgers payroll up with two players who are arguably “journeymen.”   It was a classic “risk vs. reward” and the Dodgers opted not to play a game of “chicken.”

I am also pretty sure that Milwaukee wouldn’t have offered quite the deal Wolf got had he been offered arbitration by the Dodgers – Wolf would have understood that an might have had to accept it.     How the arbitration would have impacted it is something we will never know, but if you think it wouldn’t have affected it, you are Pollyanna.  To date, no one has offered Hudson a contract.  Sure he was pissed off at Torre, but money talks and he could have gotten $7-8 mil from the Dodgers in arbitration.  Some say “Kim Ng has an excellent record at beating players in arbitration” but any attorney knows that anything can happen in court (or arbitration).

The market has been pretty slow for Free Agents.  No one but the Cards have offered a contract to Matt Holiday (arguably this years’ best free agent).  No one is beating down Jason Bays’ door and there are lots of players out there who will not get offers unless they drop their demands.   Adrian Beltre is asking $10-15 mil a year and in my opinion, I think he will be lucky to get $5 mil.  Dodger attendance was not down last year, but “REVENUE” was.   Attendance is one thing, revenue is another issue entirely.  By refusing to offer arbitration the Dodgers are going to be in a good position come February and March.  Randy Wolf had a good year last year, but it was likely his “Career Year.”  He’s the same guy most of you weren’t excited about last year.  

Yes, the Dodgers are “bottom feeders” this year, and they may get just what they need by doing it.  Have you ever considered the “big picture?”  Wait until the off-season is over before passing judgement!

Yeah, Arte Moreno looks really swell – He signed Lackey and Figgins and Matsui, right?  What?  not Lackey and Figgins?  Well, Matsui is a friggin’ gazelle, I tell you!  Moreno is a genius!  Yeah, that’s the ticket! 

You guys kill me with your incessant sobbing!

Come next season, you goofballs are going to look back and say “I must enjoy imagining how bad things were so I could just make myself miserable.”  What a way to live.  NOT!  We must have a $38 million dollar payroll – we are selling off our players right?   WRONG!  Use your heads.  This year we will have to pay our arbitration-eligible players a lot more money and then sign them to EVEN BIGGER contracts in a year or so.  Dope-fiend moves right now will eliminate that possibility. 

This team is going to win.  Now, I am not betting they go to the Series (but I always root for them to do so), but you never know – Remember, big contracts to free agent pitchers seldom work out.   The Dodgers aren’t going to make any more dope-fiend-Jason-Schmidt-Andruw-Jones-Juan-Pierre-Moves. 

I like Jamey Carroll – he is another Indiana Boy  from Don Mattingley’s hometown of Evansville.   His .351 career OB% says what he is about.  I believe we will see a platoon of DeWitt and Carroll at 2B.  Jamey had a .376 OB% against Lefties last year, which is who he will probably face the most.  I would expect to see him maintain that OB% level in Dodger Stadium.  He is a great “Clubhouse guy,” and while not a fast base-runner, he is a very good base-runner.  His defense is solid, if not spectacular, and at www.truebluela.com, Eric Stephen makes a case that Andre Ethiers’ reluctance to charge balls harder may be the result of Orlando Hudson trying to play RF (those are my words not his).  That’s a valid argument.  I would expect to see him and DeWitt fill the #8 hole.   I was not a fan of DeWitt in the beginning, but I believe he is a “Ballplayer” and he just might get us 15-20 HR.

I know that no one is excited to have Luis Ayala, but you have to sign several guys like this every year for the AAA roster, and sometimes you catch “lightening in a bottle.”  Probably not in this case…

On Randy Wolf – some say that he would have not accepted arbitration from the Dodgers with an offer like he got from the Brewers.  HELLO!  The Brewers didn’t make that offer until AFTER he was not offered arbitration.  Randy Wolf would have accepted arbitration – ABSOLUTELY!  Why?  Because he knew that he could get $12+ million in arbitration.  He did not have that $30 mil offer from the Brewers on the table at the time arbitration was to be offered.  He really did not know what his market would be.  He really wanted to stay in SoCal and that was also a factor.  

Just because he was offered arbitration and accepted, would not limit his signing.  So, to say that he would not have accepted is just plain crazy.  He most likely WOULD HAVE accepted.  Why would he NOT keep all his options open?  Ditto with Hudson.  The market did not beat a path to his door last season and they are not doing it again this off-season.  You are delusional if you don’t think he would have accepted arbitration, while still seeking a better deal.  Nobody was willing to pay him much last year and history is repeating itself!  Do any of you really think players who had been “froze out” in last years market would have turned down $12 – 13 mil and $8-9 mil respectively?  THINK PEOPLE!  THINK!

There is uncertainty with the Dodgers situation, especially since the Ownership Issue won’t be resolved until June… at the earliest, but there is no “fire sale” here and the sky is not falling!  The Dodgers have financial constraints, but they will still be around $100 mil in payroll and that’s hardly the San Diego Padres!

CHILL!

According to multiple sources, the Dodgers are chasing Aaron Harang (a player I targeted a while back).  His stats won’t impress you, but he wants to win and was not happy in Cincy.  I don’t predict he’ll be an ace, but he could very well deliver 200+ innings at a 3.75 ERA (or lower) in Dodger Stadium.  Forget the past 3 years stats – this is a case where you have to have “Vision.”  He’ll probably cost the Dodgers McDonald or Elbert, and someone like Repko or Paul.

It’s 12 degrees F outside in Indy today, but the windchill factor is -7 below Zero (wind gusts up to 30 MPH).  -7 below ZERO wind chill in Indianapolis in December!  Who knew?   It will be 30 years before the Winter Meetings are back here.

From Diamond Leung in Diamond Notes:

Dodgers GM Ned Colletti revealed in an interview yesterday on SIRIUS XM that he has spoken to All-Star pitcher Chad Billingsley numerous times this winter about his late-season struggles. Colletti is not inclined to trade the young right-hander.

“It’s tough to replace a Chad Billingsley. I know people are disappointed with what transpired the last two-plus months of the season. Prior to that, you could probably compare him to a lot of the upper echelon starting pitching in the game who’s 26, 27 years old and younger. What we need to do is we don’t need to subtract as much as we need to add. He struggled. We’ll see what he learns from the struggle because everybody loses. It’s what you learn when you lose. If I’m going to trade a good young pitcher, we’d have to get two pretty good starters back, which people just don’t have to trade. I’m confident in Chad that he can come back. I’ve talked to him a handful of times this winter…

“Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

“A lot of people were down on Matt Kemp a couple of years ago. It takes time. You have to be patient. I think the toughest thing for a lot of us to do is to fight off the urge to be impatient.”

I am DOWN Wit’ ‘dat!

Lots of rumors – little movement.

From Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times:

The Dodgers didn’t offer Wolf arbitration out of fear that he would accept it and earn a $15-million salary reward in the process. 

There, you heard it – you can disagree, but I think Wolf had a good shot at $15 million in arbitration.

Dylan also reports that the Mets have interest in Wade and Belisario – Sell high if you can, Ned!

Frank McCourt wants the trial to determine ownership of the Dodgers to begin in February, while Jamie wants it later…

It’s no secret that the McCourts are in the midst of a messy divorce, but would things be any different if Frank and Jamie were still together?

Would that have caused the Dodgers to offer arbitration to Randy Wolf and/or Orlando Hudson?  Would that have caused the Dodgers to sign Wolf?  Well, no one can be sure, but do you really want 3 years of Randy Wolf?  I mean, two years ago and even last year, many of you didn’t want him back. 

Yeah, the Randy Wolf of 2009 was pretty nice, so nice that he earned the Type A Free Agent Rating, but what are the odds that he stays healthy or continues his level of success in 2010, 2011 and 2012?  I would say the odds are not good.  That’s just my opinion, but I don’t see him as a workhorse.  I do see a guy who could say that he was a Type A Free Agent who had better stats that D-Lowe, and D-Lowe makes $15 mil a year.  That was the most that Wolf stood to make – $15 mil a year, but if he would have asked for, say $13 million a year, he would have had a decent shot at it, especially if the Dodgers offered less than $10 million. 

You might say that the Brewers offered him about $30 mil over 3 years, but what makes you so sure they would have offered the contract if they had to give up compensation?  You don’t know, and there is no way to ever know, but it’s circular thinking to think it would have happened the same way.   I think the Dodgers decided (change that – I know that the Dodgers decided that they did not want to give Randy Wolf a multi-year deal in the $10 mil per year range and they felt he would accept arbitration because (1) he knew he could get $11-15 mil in arbitration ($15 mil is probably too high, but maybe not); and (2) they did not want to commit to a multi-year deal with him.  This is all conjecture, but offering arbitration would have changed the whole dynamic. 

For similar reasons, Orlando Hudson, who did not want to come back to LA, would have jumped at a chance for a $10 million payday.  He was an All-Star and Gold Glove 2B on multiple occasions, and again – a case could be made that he could command up to $10 million a year.  Likely?  MAYBE NOT, BUT POSSIBLE!   It is an extreme example, but it’s possible that the Dodgers could have had 25% of their $100 million payroll tied up with two players.  Again, it may not have been likely, but it was a scenario that the Dodgers had to consider as possible.  If that had happened it would have crippled the Dodgers ability give raises to their youngsters.

Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson made us better in 2009, but I have reason to believe that one of our youngsters can step in and fill their shoes.   McDonald, Troncoso, Elbert, Lindblom and Haeger are in the mix for the first 2 spots behind Billingsley, Kershaw and Kuroda.  Again, come July, more arms will be on the market at a cheaper price.  I see nothing wrong with trying the youngsters and then shopping in July, if necessary.  Should Ned tell you that?  Why play your cards?  This team is going to be very good next year, if only because our players are another year older and more mature.  Blake DeWitt is a “Ballplayer” at 2B, and I would not even sniff at Belliard or Carroll, unless it’s as a utility-man.

Manny Ramirez will also be playing for a new contract and I think he will return with a vengeance.  I also don’t see the Dodgers buying-down Pierre’s contract.  They will keep him or trade him for a pitcher with a “bad contract.”  I still hope for Harang (because I think he has a higher upside than Arroyo), but who knows?  The Dodgers still need bench help, but we already have Xavier Paul, Jason Repko, Juan Pierre and Chin-lung Hu.  Brad Ausmus is a strong possibility again,  and so all we need is another RH infield bat – not Craig Counsell who is LH.

So, back to the question first propounded – would things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  I can’t answer that, but I will ask, should things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  This is a business and is it prudent to sign players like Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones or, for that matter, Manny Ramirez?  I say no.  I am on record this time last year as saying the Dodgers should not sign Manny (something for which I was castigated), but Manny was mostly a “non-factor.”  Go after “Blue Chip” Players, not “cow chip” players.  If we had went after C.C. Sabathia instead of Manny, we would be talking right now about Hudson or Wolf, and we might have won the Series last year. 

I say that when it comes to Free Agents – Go BIG or Stay Home!  Think about it!  There are no “BIG” ones this year, so we should stay home.  Quit trying to “make a silk purse out of a sows ear.”  So, if you are one of the naysayers who say “The Dodgers Won’t Win With The Pitchers They Have,”  You are probably the same ones who told me the Dodgers wouldn’t win without Manny. They didn’t win WITH him.

• After talking with lots and lots of scouts, pro personnel people and writers, I am convinced that the Dodgers did the right thing in refusing arbitration to Wolf and Hudson.  There are lots of reasons why and I will articulate them later this week. 
• I overheard some other scouts talking about the Dodgers Young Arms and one said “they already have better arms than they can trade for or sign.  If I were them, I go with what I have.”
• There’s no doubt the Dodgers have financial constraints – all teams but the Yankees and Mets do too, but it’s not gloom and doom by any means.
• I had a 20 minute interview with De Jon Watson and Logan White today and I think you will be shocked and/or excited to hear what they say about our “much maligned farm system.”   It is a great interview – I hope to have it edited by tomorrow.  I just wish I could have had another 20 minutes.   Josh Rawitch says this may be the first interview of Logan and De Jon together. 
• Wolf is gone – allegedly 3 years/$27 -30 million – not a bad deal, but I’ll tell you why it wouldn’t have been good for the Dodgers tomorrow.
• Rule 5 Draft tomorrow.

• There’s not a lot of movement, so far – Just the D-Backs trade with the Tigers and Yankees.   I find it curious that the D-Backs gave away “Mad-Max” so easily.
• Jamie and Frank have allegedly agreed on her monthly stipend so the hearing is cancelled the 15th!
• Ned is kicking the tires of Pinero and other starters, but he’s not going to be the first to sign someone – and I agree!
• I have did a 180 on the arbitration to Hudson and Wolf – no way the Dodgers  should have offered it.  All the fans say YES they should have, and all the baseball people say NO WAY!
• I am supposed to interview Logan White and De Jon Watson together today.  I have a camera crew ready and will hopefully have it for you tomorrow.  Stay tuned

The Baseball Winter Meetings are being held in Indianapolis beginning on Monday, December 7th thru Thursday, December 10th.  While MLB would not issue me a credential, I will be there and hopefully get lucky.   The only thing that credentials really do is get you inside the interview room when there are news conferences. I can still walk all over the hotel where everything is going on without a problem and report on all that’s going on. Usually, agents or GMs just stop in the hallways and talk to people and I will be right there.  I have one purpose at these meetings – I would like to get a feel of what is really happening with the Dodgers… and I will! 

Ken made a good point yesterday that maybe the Dodgers had a verbal agreement with Wolf and Hudson that they would not offer them arbitration.  That could be a possibility.  I’ll try and find out.  Besides, who should the Dodgers really try and get?   Halladay?  Lackey?  Martinez?  Wolf?  It would take a lot to get Lackey or Halladay and either one is a prospect for arm and/or injury issues.  I am almost of the opinion that we sign Padilla andor Wolf IFthe market is soft and they don’t get better deals elsewhere.  Then, try and get some pitchers line Noach Lowery, Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, et al for insurance.

I’d sooner see the Dodgers get a power hitter for 2B than spend to get Halladay or Lackey.  I may be crazy, but I would not be afraid to go into the season with Kershaw our #1, Billingsley and Kuroda battling for #2 and Haeger as our #5.  Then, let Elbert, McDonald, Troncoso, Lindblom and other battle for the #4 spot.  Something good will come out of that bunch.  You have to bank on internal growth by your young players.  Shoot, I wouldn’t mind a platoon of Jamie Carroll and Blake DeWitt at 2B or maybe try Adrian Beltre at 2B – he’s an excellent athlete.  Think about it!  We’d have power at the position.

I am most concerned about locking up Kemp, Ethier, Kersahw and Billingsley long term.  Are the Dodgers willing to do that?  We have a plethora of pitching prospects who are a yera or so away – trading for a vet who could have arms issue is felony stupid – witness the Jason Schmidt Debacle.

At any rate, I’ll be at the meeting and I’ll be reporting what I see and hear – or maybe I’ll report half of what I see and none of what I hear…

Answer:  One is a bottom-dwelling garbage-eater and the other is a fish!

There's Something Fishy Here!

Get used to it.  The Dodgers are now officially bottom-dwelling, garbage-eaters.  They love to eat up cheap, journeyman-like players who may not have much upside but are cheap, cheap, cheap.  Warm bodies to stock AAA… and maybe, if a Randy Wolf or Adrian Beltre is not signed by March, the Dodgers will try to get them on the cheap as well. 

From the Class of Baseball to Bottom-Dwelling Garbage Eaters. 

Thank your Frank McCourt!

It may come as a surprise to you, I am not all gloom and doom – I actually think the Dodgers will be better in 2010 than we were in 2009.  It’s beyond that which worries me.  I don’t think that even Jamie could screw up next year.  Frank is obviously not allowing the system to be re-stocked.  Draft picks are out.  International signings?  Forget-about-it!  However,   the Dodgers will be better next year for five (5) reasons:

1. Manny is playing for a new contract.  To those who think he has lost it:  you have never been more wrong!
2. Kemp, Ethier and Loney will be a year more mature and even better than last year.
3. Russell Martin is playing for his career and his pride.  Watch for a big rebound.
4. Our young pitching will take a big stride forward next year, led by Opening Day Starter Clayton Kershaw.  Broxton may master a change up, and the real Chad Billingsley will return.
5. Experience will hold the day.

I am not saying “World Series,” but the Dodgers will be better and then, who knows what can happen. 

The only problem is that I feel like I have vomited in my mouth whenever I think of the name McCourt – talk about “acid reflux!”

It WAS TRULY a No-Brainer!

The Spin:  “We didn’t think it was prudent to offer Wolf or Hudson arbitration in this down market because we really didn’t want either one and we were afraid they would accept.”

The No-Spin:  “Frank won’t spend a dime and we are a bunch of ignorant jackasses.”

The Spin:  “The divorce won’t have an effect of the Dodgers’ spending.”

The No-Spin:  “Frank McCourt couldn’t run the Dodgers on a good day – watch him really screw it up now.”

The Spin:  “We will have some really good news for Dodger fans shortly.”

The No-Spin:  “We will use Vaseline!”

I said it was a “No Brainer” to offer Wolf and Hudson arbitration.  Frank McCourt has taken a “lethal dose of NO – BRAINS!”

Bottom line:  I have supported Frank McCourt through his debacles.  Now, I understand that he gave up Santana, Bell, Johnson and others becaise he didn’t want to spend a few bucks.  He is not investing in the minor leagues and WE ARE SCREWED!  I am done with these ignorant savages!   The Dodgers will not get another dime from me and NO SUPPORT!  I will call out these Stupid Idiots every chance I get!  You won’t see me at Spring Training – I am going to become a Reds fan!  I am SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO done with these fools!

Dodger Fans Are Screwed!

If you have a home which is worth $400,000 or $400,000,000 and you are served divorce papers by your spouse,  what do you do?  It’s obvious that a great part of the parties’ net worth is that asset.  Some people are idiots about this – some have even burned-down the house rather than split the proceeds.  Are the McCourts that stupid?  I doubt it.  Both appear to be greedy, self-absorbed, high-achievement people whom I think  want to maximize their investments.  What should they do?    The biggest asset I think is the Dodgers.  They have to keep that asset shiny and new – to make money now and to make the asset continue to appreciate.  That’s why I think they will “Paint the House, not Blow-Up the House!  We might not have a $120 million payroll, but it won’t be $75 million either!

SECOND BASE- I think that the Dodger Brass has identified 2B as a position that needs a power upgrade.  Casey Blake is not a Big HR Hitter at 3B, Raffy isn’t at SS, Loney currently is not a power hitter at 1B, and Martin is not a HR hitter at C.  Our only power is in the outfield.   I think many people believe the Dodgers “stuck it to” Orlando Hudson so as not to have to pay him.  If it had been $3 million, I’d buy it, but $10,000 or $190,000 (which is actually closer) is “chump change.”  I think Joe Torre played Belliard in the playoffs (which didn’t count on O-Dog’s incentives) so they would have more power.  I believe that’s the long and short of it, which brings me to what they will do at 2B next year.  Read the full story

The Dodgers have improved over 2008.   They won more games, but they still couldn’t get past the Phillies, and the Phillies will still be good next year.  I suspect that Raul Ibanez had his career year and will slip back to reality next year and the Phillies will have some holes to fill, just like the Dodgers.  Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have a former ace who needs to come back and I believe both will.  It would not surprise me to see either one win a Cy Young Award in the future, even as easly as next year.  I fully expect Hamels and Billingsley to both win 16-18 games next year.  Both pitchers have too much talent.

Manny will return as Manny, because he’s playingfor Manny,  and the Dodgers should benefit from his quest for a new contract, in what will certainly be his last year as a Dodger.  Look for Manny to hit .320+ with 35 HR and 130 RBI.  I look for more growth by Kemp and Ethier as both become perennialAll-Stars.   Russ Martin?  He’ll be back with a vengeance!  Count on it!    I do see two areas in which the Dodgers need to improve:  They need more power from 3B and 1B and they will get it from James Loney at 1B, who I believe will hit around 25 dingers.  He has shown he is capable.  3B is another issue.  Casey Blake had a better year than I expected, but he’s still a journeyman at best.   We need a big HR bat at 3B and will will get robbed if we try and trade or one.  Here’s what we do:  Sign Adrian Beltre!  Sign Adrian Beltre.   He loves LA and is a cinch to hit 30 for the Dodgers.  Yeah, I know you don’t believe me, but he will!    If you want to look at stats, then I’ll use the year he hit 48 HR as a stat!  He’s young enough that we can sign him to a 5 year deal.   That means we need to dump Blake, and we can do that in a deal for Roy Halliday. I purpose that we trade Jon Broxton, Casey Blake, James McDonald, Ethan Martin,  and Chris Withrow to Toronto for Roy Halliday (pay a lot, get a lot).  I am not a Blake hater, but we need to get younger and better at 3B! Read the full story

The Top 10 - In No Particular Order

I have no clue where this “Debacle in the Ravine will take us, but I’d say Jamie does not have the upper hand.   No, I’m not going to speculate on who we will sign and who we won’t or who we should trade.  Today, I just want to do some “farming.”  Let’s take a look at the Dodgers top prospects. Read the full story

 This team is far from needing rebuilding, but any good team needs to ”retool” every year.  Last year, the Phillies won the World Series with Pat Burrell in LF.  They evidently decided

Must Be A Padre Fan...

 that he wasn’t the answer this year, so they signed a guy even older who ended up having his career year.   The Phillies may yet be sorry that they signed Raul Ibanez, but right about now, that move is looking pretty good.    They added Shane Victorino and Jason Werth in 2005 and 2007 as key pieces to the puzzle.  How did they get them?  No Big Blockbuster Deals, just incidental signings, which turned out to be pretty good.    I don’t think we need to rebuild – the core of the team is in place, but re-tool, we must!

I have taken the 40-Man Roster, plus some others who are technically not on it and divided them into three (3) groups:

1. Core players who we need to keep – in BLUE;
2. Players who we needs to keep under the right conditions – in BLACK; and
3. Players we need to try and lose, trade, release or not sign – in RED.

It’s not hard to see that our core is young and will get even better.  I have Jon Broxton on the BLUE list (even though I have serious doubts about him), because we don’t currently have better options (that too could change).  Now, I am not saying that I wouldn’t trade Broxton or some of the others, but it would have to be a trade that we would make from a point of strength.  Read the full story

No Dumbass Vaccine!

Blame it all on Joe Torre if you want, but when we score ZERO runs, the likelihood of losing is pretty high.  Blame it on Kuroda if you want.  Blame it on Billingsley or the fact that  we left Jon Garland and Jeff Weaver off the playoff roster.  But, the reality of the situation is that we have seen the Dodgers do this before.  The team that lead the league in batting average and on-base percentage and was 4th in runs scored is hitting 46points below their season batting average and 69 points below their seasons OB%,  and have been outscored 20-8!   Now, their 6.92 ERA is horrible, but most of that was acquired yesterday in the 11-0 loss.   The Dodgers have scored 8 runs in 3 games against the Phillies and have been lucky to win one game!  We should be down 3 games to none and facing elimination and yet, we are only down by 1 game.  That’s the good news.

The bad news is that we have all seen this happen before – usually when this teams offense goes into an offensive funk (which is where they are now), it takes a week or two to snap back.  Well, we don’t have a week or two.  We have a game or two.  WE NEED TO WIN TODAY and I won’t put this on Randy Wolf.  I put it on Manny, Raffy, Casey, Andre, Matt, James, Russ, and Orlando (I think he needs to start – not that Ronnie did anything wrong – it’s just a gut feeling), who are our starters.  The offense needs to GET WELL NOW and jump all over the Phillies’ pitching – no matter who is pitching.  Ronnie Belliard has been good, but Orlando Hudson is MOTIVATED to show Joe Torre he deserves to start.  I would start O-Dog today, if for no other reason than to get another left-handed bat in there. 

If the boys don’t bring their bats today, it could be a long, cold winter and I still can’t believe that the morons who own the team couldn’t keep their mouths shut for a couple of weeks.  It just simply proves what Jimmy Buffett sings about (in bold) Read the full story