Since the Dodgers failed to offer arbitration the Hudson and Wolf, I have heard such incessant crying and complaining about the Dodgers failure to do so and how stupid it was.  Right about now, I am going to publish what Jon Weisman  wrote today at his new gig at ESPN Los Angeles, where he has evidently softened his stance on the arbitration issue as well.  Take the time and read the article, where he ends up saying:

There’s got to be a middle ground in there with Hudson somewhere. Given the doubts about him and the price for which he signed, which was about $3-5 million less than what he might have won in a salary arbitration case with the Dodgers, maybe there’s more justification for the team not offering him salary arbitration than I originally allowed for. Thoughts are still in flux.

I have been telling you knuckleheads this for quite some time.  Think about it.  Would it have been smart to devote $10 mil to O-Dog?   He’s a nice player, but he obviously isn’t all that.  Yes, he’ll help Minnesota, and I might have wanted him at $5 mil, but the injury factor and diminishing skill factor has to be considered.  Those of you who say he wouldn’t have accepted arbitration because he didn’t like the way Torre treated him are way out of touch.  I can give you $10 million reasons why he would have accepted arbitration.  Also, how can you be mad when you slump and are replaced by a guy who OPS’s over 1.000?  You can’t say a damn thing and O-Dog didn’t! 

Randy Wolf had his career year last year – watch and see what he does this year.  We have a exciting group of young players, some of whom will step-up and seize the day.  Why do you make yourself miserable by hating on an owner who has gotten the Dodgers to  the playoffs more frequently than EVER in the past, and has built a great young team?  

 ”But he isn’t spending enough on draft picks and international scouting…” 

Tour Camelback Ranch and tell me he’s not spending money.  It’s temporary!  We will spend again.  This too shall pass.  Don’t make me keep questioning your sanity!

You will probably say “Yeah but…” 

It’s time to put a sock in it.  I’m sick of it.  Let it play out.  If you want to be miserable , do it on your own time.  Get your own blog.  It wearisome to me!

I am not saying the Dodgers will win the World Series, but we have a good shot.  This team will contend, and when it’s all said and done, that’s what it’s about!  Now, if I am wrong, then come back after the season and remind me.

By the way, the Smart Money is on the Colts – Give the points. 

… and nothing but the truth!  That’s why you come here, because I am going to tell you the truth.  God knows it’s not because I’m a writer.  At any rate, let’s consider the following and see if what is happening is true or false.

True or False:  Ned Colletti, Frank McCourt and Dennis Mannion have all been “singing out of the same hymnbook” that it’s business as usual for the Dodgers”?

Answer:  True and False!    It’s true that it is “business as usual,” but the “business model” has been changed, so that’s false.  Let me explain.  Ned has made some acquisitions the past few years which have not proven to be (how should I say it?) prudent (how’s that?).   Now, under some circumstances, he might be fired, but not in this case because Frank McCourt, as the new owner of the Dodgers was trying to make an impact and the signings of Pierre (I love Juan Pierre, but he was a bad signing),  Schmidt, Jones and Manny were all approved  (or even “pushed”) by Frank.  So, Ned does not bear all the culpability for those bad deals, and Frank and Ned have come to an understanding:  Frank will be an owner and Ned will be the GM.  Frank has also assured Ned that if he needs more funds to sign a player, he can feel free to come to Frank for more money.  Frank wants to keep the payroll at around $100,000,000 this year, but after the May hearing, he will have a better idea if the Dodgers can be buyers in August and he thinks they can. 

The truth is that the Dodgers have a very good team this year. Maybe it has escaped some of you, but they have some extremely good young players who have gotten better (much better) the past three years.  Even our oft-maligned catcher is rated 4th to 7th in most Fantasy Leagues.  If you can’t have Joe Mauer, the 4th to 7th best Catcher ain’t so bad!   We have some young pitchers who are suddenly just going to “get it.”  BANG!  Our aces-in-waiting will become our aces.  None of  this is lost on savvy baseball people, but it is lost on some of you. 

Forget the TOP 100 or TOP 50 Baseball Prospects.  Ethan Martin is in the Top 50, but I think we have 4 or 5 others who are better than him- Aaron Miller, Chris Withrow, Garrett Gould, Josh Lindblom, Alan Webster and Nate Eavoldi may be among them.   Think Andrew Lambo’s stock has dropped?  Keep thinking that!  Watch him rake this year.  Dee Gordon?  This kid has “star”written all over him! 

What about the big club?  Why did we sign Jamey Carroll only to sign Ronnie Belliard a few weeks later?  Simple – Ned had to make sure we had a veteran second-baseman, and Lopez, Belliard and Hudson were asking Big Bux.  Ned signed Jamey to make sure he had a fallback plan. Plan A is to give Blake DeWitt the opportunity to win the job (forget his season last year, as he bounced around like a yo-yo from the Ravine to Albaquacky 9 times).  The year before, he hit over .300 for 2 months and he has some decent power.  Unless he tanks, the job is his.  Carroll will be a “Dave Hansen Type” Pinch Hitter and Belly will be Belly. 

You naysayers are in for a surprise.  This team isn’t just “good”  – IT’S VERY GOOD! 

Dodger fans – you are in for the ride of your life, and in August, the Dodgers will probably be buyers because they haven’t blown their budget. 

 Like Dave Ramsey says “Live like no one else now, so you can live like no one else later.”

Some people are saying that the Dodgers are a .500 team (when I say “some people” I don’t mean “informed baseball people”), which I think is just plain delusional.  I think sometimes Dodger fans fail to take into consideration that change is inevitable, and often, it is good.  Will everything be OK?  Seth Godin summed it up today by saying:

It’s natural to seek reassurance. Most of us want to believe that the choices we make will work out, that everything will be okay.

Artists and those that launch the untested, the new and the emotional (and I’d put marketers into all of these categories) wrestle with this need all the time. How can we proceed knowing that there’s a good chance that our actions will fail, that things might get worse, that everything won’t end up okay? In search of solace, we seek reassurance.

So people lie to us. So we lie to ourselves.

No, everything is not going to be okay. It never is. It isn’t okay now. Change, by definition, changes things. It makes some things better and some things worse. But everything is never okay.

Finding the bravery to shun faux reassurance is a critical step in producing important change. Once you free yourself from the need for perfect acceptance, it’s a lot easier to launch work that matters.

Will the Dodgers be OK?  We are so much in the middle of the Forest that we can’t see the trees, or is it we can’t see the Forest for the trees?  I will leaf that alone.  What I will say is that we often look at how a player performed last year and extrapolate that into the next.  What we fail to factor in is that we have a very young team and these guys often get better by leaps and bounds.  In some cases you can count on it.  I think we forget how far some of our young player have come, how much they have matured and how they will almost certainly continue down that same path. 

In the middle of the long, cold winter, I usually pick-up a copy of Lindy’s Fantasy Baseball(I never play it myself), because over the years, I have found that their takes are pretty close to the reality.  I don’t know for sure, but I think that they use a variety of statistical analysis as well as scouting resources to reach their conclusions.  At any rate, I have read them for many years and their accuracy rate is exceptional when predicting what players might do.  I thought I’d share a few of their predictions:

• Russell Martin is the 7th Highest Ranked Catcher in Baseball behind Soto, Posada, Wieters, McCann, Martinez and Mauer – no surprise there. He is rated ahead of Suzuki, Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, Yadier Molina,  Chris Iannetta and Mike Napoli.  I caught a lot of heat from some of you for ranking him that high, but you can see I’m not the only one!   (Projection:  .269/9 HR/58 RBI/470 AB)  Comments:  “He inexplicably morphed into Jason  Kendall with slightly more pop, slipping even in stolen bases, a category he once dominated.  He’ll either return to fantasy relevance or fade into oblivion this season.”
• James Loneyis the 15th Highest Rated First Baseman is Baseball ranked ahead of Chris Davis, Paul Konerko, Adam LaRoche, Jorge Cantu, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Casey Kotchman and Aubrey Huff (Projection:  .281/18 HR/30 DBL/92 RBI) Comments:  “There’s a lack of sizzle and a whole lot of Mark Grace going on here.  A more critical peek at his numbers reveals Loney is becoming more patient (70 walks last season), suggesting a brighter future.  He’s due for a spike … don’t bet on an explosion.”
• Of course, the Dodgers don’t have anyone rated at 2B, but I do hope they give Blake DeWitt the opportunity.  If he and Carroll can’t cut it, then we can make a deal.  Second-basemen are a dime a dozen and that All-Star you all wanted back (Orlando Hudson) is only the 16th rated at his position (and he wants $9 mil a year?  HA!).
• Casey Blake is ranked #17 at 3B, right ahead of Casey McGhee, Andy LaRoche, Garrett Atkins, Jhonny Peralta, Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigington and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  (Projection:  .276/18 HR/ 76 RBI).  The words they use as “consistent” and “solid.”  Certainly, he ’s no star, but we could do worse.  
• Raffy Furcal is ranked the #14 SS and Lindys calls him “No longer an elite fantasy option, as injuries have robbed him of his speed and power.”  (Projection: .283/10 HR/51 RBI/15 SB)  If he can put up those numbers with a .360 OB%, we will be fine. “Hurry up Dee Gordon!”
• Ryan Braun is rated the #1 outfielder, but #2 is none other than our Matt Kemp (Projection: .302/35 DBL/8 TRIP/31 HR/105 RBI/38 SB).  Those are “elite” numbers.  Andre Ethier is rated #16 (Projection: .293/36 DBL/30 HR/102 RBI) and Manny Ramirez is #18 (Projection: .302/26 HR/86 RBI).  They say that they still believe “Ethier will win a batting title” and that “Manny still has an elite batting eye and isn’t done being relevant in our game.”  If that prediction holds up for our outfielders, the Dodgers should be very good offensively.  In fact, that should be baseballs best offensive outfield.
• When it comes to pitching, Lindys has Clayton Kershaw at #16, just ahead of Cliff Lee!  Chris Carpenter was #15.  Other pitchers ranked behind Kershaw are:  Vazquez, Cain, Beckett, Jimenez, Webb, Peavy, Shields and Lackey who was rated #25, just ahead of Chad Billingsley at #26.  (Projections:  Kershaw- 16-6/2.88 ERA /198 IP/156 H/210 K/1.24 WHIP; Billingsley – 14-11/3.72 ERA/202 IP/180 H/188 K/1.29 WHIP).  Here’s what they say about Clayton:  “He’s a still a work in progress, last summer adding a slider to compliment his mid-90’s fastball and all-world curveball.  Check out Fangraphs.com for more on his slider and put a check next to his name on your cheatsheet.  He’s going to be unstoppable in the very near future.”  Yeah, like maybe in 2010?  Billingsley was rated ahead of the likes of Baker, Garza, Rodriguerz, Lilly, Weaver, Dempster, Nolasco, Anderson, Oswalt, Burnett, Bucholz, Jurrjens, Danks, Jackson and Harden.  They regards the 2nd half of 2009 as a “hiccup.”  Hiroki Kuroda was ranked #49, ahead of Hudson, Kazmir, Maine, Sherzer, Saunders, Pineiro, Zambrano and Randy Wolf (who was #65, and they predict 10 wins with an ERA over 4.00 for him).  They project Kuroda at 11-8 with a 3.63 ERA/182 IP and ad WHIP of 1.20.  Of Kuroda they said “his underlying numbers are solid and the injuries were not arm-related.“  Vicente Padilla weighed in at #96 (not bad for a #4), just behind Jon Garland at #95.  They project him at 12-10 with a 4.33 ERA and 169 IP with a 1.43 WHIP.
• Which brings us to Jon Broxton, ranked #5 as a closer.  Here’s the crux of what they say about him (sounds like what I say):  “Perhaps a visit with a sports psychologist is in order…”  ‘Nuff said!  George Sherrill is rated #40 and Lindys thinks he could close more on the road, especially against LH’ers (where Brox has his issues).

So, while Lindy’s is not Bill James or Fangraphs, it’s still very useful, and I have found that their projections are quite accurate.  I think a lot of Dodger fans depreciate the value of a lot of our young players, as well as our role-players.  The 2010 Version of the LA Dodgers is destined to be VERY, VERY GOOD!  Now, depending upon what happens with the divorce, we could be buyers in August.  Get ready for a great season!  I see at leat 93 wins!

DODGER NEWS:

• Jon Weisman has an excellent post on the Dodgers lack of resources at this juncture.
• The Phillies have $130 million committed to 14 players in 2011, which means they may not be abale to sign Jason Werth.  Hummmm…
• The Dodgers could sign Noah Lowery as soon as NOW!

There is much debate among baseball professionals and fans regarding the benefit of taking multiple pitches during an at bat in order to drive up the pitch count of the starting pitcher and to see more types of pitches in order to be more productive later in the game.  However, it is well know that a batter’s batting average drops drastically when they get behind in the count. 

Lets’ look at the 7 returning Dodger starters and how they batted last year.

Loney has the best batting average for a specific count three times; Rameriz, Ethier and Kemp twice; and Martin once.  Martin has the worst batting average for a specific count five times; Blake twice; and Rameriz, Kemp, Furcal and Ethier once.

 The seven starter’s combined batting average is above their OBP when hitting at counts 2 – 0; 3 – 1; and 2 – 1. Six starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 2 – 0.  Five starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 3 – 1. Three starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 2 – 1.  So why must the batters take a pitch at these counts.  Certainly when a batter’s average on certain counts is above their OBP for the season they should be hitting.  Maybe taking pitches at these counts is one of the reasons that the Dodger batting average with RISP was so poor last year.

Six batters have an average below .200 when the count is 2 – 2.  Four batters have an average below .200 when the count is 0 – 2 or 1 – 2.  These batters should be more aggressive and tryvery hard not to let the count get to these levels.  Maybe taking extra strikes, that result in these counts, is one of the reasons that the Dodger batting average with RISP was so poor last year.

 Blake has an average below .200 when the count is either 1 – 0; or 0 – 1.  He obviously needs to take many pitches in order to become accustomed to the movement and speed of pitches. Martin even has an average below .200 when the count is 3 – 2.   Obviously Martin’s batting approached is completely screwed up.  He does have a batting average above .400 only when the count is 1 – 0; 2 – 0; and 3 – 1, so for him to take strikes is really insanity.

 In conclusion, each player handles pressure differently and adjusts their swing to the count and situation differently so a blind alliance to taking a lot of pitches is sophomoric.

The benching of Orlando Hudson at the end of the season is something that has been talked about by Dodger fans, at the time and up to now.  For the record, I stated that Hudson should have been the starter in the playoffs.  However, I am going to remind everyone that Joe Torre was closer to the situation that any of us and any reporter.  Let’s consider a few quotes from the parties:

On September 19, 2009, Joe Torre stated this about Orlando Hudson and Ronnie Belliard:

 ”…over the course of the season it’s probably taken a little bit of a toll on him, I think there’s some fatigue now. I’m taking advantage right now with Ronnie swinging the bat the way he is to use him, and then decide what choices we’re going to have going forward,” 

On that same date, Orlando Hudson then stated:: 

“I haven’t been doing the job.  My man Belliard came in, they made a great trade to get him in here and he’s doing a great job at second base.  All I can do is cheer for him.”

On November 12, 2009, after the season was over, Orlando Hudson said the following: 

“My teammates talked to me about it more than Joe did, but I never had any answers because Torre and I never talked, there was no conversation.”

Now, that one sentence is a little contradictory, in that he said his “teammates to talked to me about it more than Joe did” implying that there was conversation, but very little.  He then concluded by saying that “Torre and I never talked … there was no conversation.”

A lot has been made about this one sentence, but no one has asked O-Dog “Did Torre EVER talk to you about the benching?”  It’s common knowledge that Joe Torre is a “players manager,” especially a veteran player.  It seems highly unlikely that Torre NEVER talked with O-Dog.  It seems more likely that there was not much conversation.  It also seems likely to me that Hudson was concealing an injury.  Maybe Torre knew about it, maybe he didn’t.  Hudson certainly has a history of late season injuries.  Maybe Orlando was protecting his impending Free Agency.  Maybe Joe was too…

The fact of the matter is, that from where I sit, I still would have started Orlando Hudson!

• In case you haven’t seen it yet, Jose Offerman punched an umpire in the Dominican last night.

For those of you who believe the Giants will be better, consider what Bruce Jenkins of the SF Chronicle wrote:

Pablo Sandoval’s weight is going to be an issue for the rest of his life (he lost 10 pounds through a rigorous conditioning program in Arizona, then gained most of it back when he returned home to play in the Venezuelan winter league). Many scouts around the National League can’t figure out why the Giants simply don’t stick him at first base and leave him there.

The Giants obviously don’t see it that way. They made a two-year offer to Adam LaRoche, who wisely turned it down (no left-handed pull hitter feels an attraction to AT&T Park unless he has Prince Fielder-like power). Then they signed Aubrey Huff, a terrible defensive player at any position. Understand the larger point: The Giants have filled some embarrassing holes with professional hitters, and Huff easily could revert to his 100-RBI form. But in this park, with that pitching staff, defense has to be a priority – and it could be a problem all season.

With Sandoval at third and Edgar Renteria at shortstop, the left side of the infield has a glaring lack of range. Freddy Sanchez is a competent second baseman, but is also 32 years old and coming off knee surgery.

Mark DeRosa, an infielder by trade, should be an ordinary left fielder at best. Aaron Rowand is a noted fly-chaser but has become known for fundamental mistakes in his time with the Giants. Nate Schierholtz is a strong-armed right fielder, but isn’t likely to measure up to Randy Winn defensively.

Some people say I am too optimistic and that I always predict career years for the Dodgers, so I thought I’d post what I said last year.  This is from a February 16, 2009 post, which was BEFORE O-Dog and Manny were signed:

1B- James Loney is quietly becoming a force at 1B.  He will win a Gold Glove soon and should be a .300 hitter with 20 HR and 100 RBI.  That puts him near the top at his position.

2B- Blake DeWitt will be the official starter, but Mark Loretta will start against tough LH pitchers.  I predict that this platoon will produce a BA of .270/20 HR and 70 RBI from the #8 hole.

SS- If Rafael Furcal stays healthy, he is one of the top impact players in the game.

3B- Casey Blake provides a very important mental toughness which will help his young teammates.  The versatility of DeWitt (2B, 3B) and Blake (3B, 1B, LF, RF) allows Joe Torre to “rest”  Russell Martin at 3B on certain days.  Blake could also see some time in LF.

LF- Andre Ethier will be a year better and I project him at .300/25/100.  He is an excellent LF as well, with a very good arm.  He’s not as soft as he once was.

CF – Juan Pierre has to play here.  He’s not the greatest CF ever, but he covers more ground than Kemp and has more experience.  He needs to play there if Manny is not signed.

RF – Matt Kemp is possibly the offensive key to our season.  If he continues to improve, and realizes more of his potential (he reported with the pitchers and catchers to Spring Training), he will not be  just be the Bison, but he’ll also be the Monster.  I expect him to hit near .300 with 25-30 HR and 110 RBI from the Cleanup Spot.  He will also have about 15-20 Outfield Assists.

C-  This will be the year that Russell Martin distances himself from most other catchers in baseball.   His hitting and defense will be elevated, but most importantly, he will become the Dodgers captain.

OK, how did I do?  Loney was short of .300  and while he did have 90 RBI, his power didn’t yet amnifest itself, but I wasn’t far off.  O-Dog played 2B so I am returning to my prediction at 2B for DeWitt and Carroll.  Raffy had a bad year – I don’t know if it was injury related but it wasn’t good.  Blake was what he was.  I “underestimated”  Ethier and “overestimated” Martin.    My prediction on Kemp was pretty accurate.

So, where’s the beef?

In the same post I said:

This team is a lot better than most of you think, even without Manny!  For the record, if Manny doesn’t sign with us, it will be with the Yankees, which would make more of their outfielders available.  I still don’t see anyone beating the Dodgers offers to Manny because baseball expects to be hurting this year.  The Dodgers have sold half of the season tickets they projected for spring training and all the teams realize that with the economy more and more people will cut back on games and cut back on what they buy at the park.  You are kidding yourself if you think someone will pay Manny more than the Dodgers – certainly not the Giants!  One final thing.  If Manny doesn’t sign, we still can sign Orlando Hudson and put him at 2B, move Dewitt to 3B and platoon Blake and Pierre in the OF.  Just a thought…

You never know how things will play out, but I wasn’t too far off!

Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts made a good point yesterday when he asked: 

Honestly, if the Dodgers had done nothing to this point except offer Wolf and Hudson arbitration — if they had gotten those draft picks as compensation, made no roster additions and were just waiting out the market to sign a No. 4 starter at a good price, I don’t think many of us would have complained, right?

He then went on to say:

The question assumes that Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson would have turned down salary arbitration, which I think was likely if not certain. If one or both had accepted, I suppose we would have seen what the Dodgers payroll was really made of. Possibly the Dodgers would have salary-dumped someone like George Sherrill for prospects — essentially reversing this summer’s acquisition of him — which wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Possibly the Dodgers would have just sucked up the additional cost, even if it meant their off-season was over before it began.

I agree that it was likely that Wolf and Hudson would have turned down arbitration, but it was not certain.  That’s the rub – “likely” but not “certain.”   First of all, let’s get the part that the Dodgers didn’t want to pay a first round pick, out of the way.  Depending upon who Wolf and Hudson signed with (assuming they would have been signed), the Dodgers would have probably had to pay around $3,000,000.00 for the picks (combined, more or less).  If you think the reason was that they didn’t want to pay the draft picks $3 mil and that it wasn’t the possibility that they would have to pay $20 mil to Wolf and Hudson, then you might as well stop reading right here.  You have issues!    The Dodgers aren’t broke, but they are strapped for cash.  $3 mil they could handle.  $20 mil?  No way!

It may have been a 10% chance that Wolf and Hudson would have accepted arbitration or it may have been a 40% chance they would have accepted it.  I don’t know and you don’t know and Jon Weisman doesn’t know.  We all have our own ideas, but NO ONE KNOWS!  That much is a fact!  Look, the Dodgers simply didn’t want to take the risk that Wolf and Hudson “might” accept arbitration, because it’s possible they would have gotten $20 mil between them and that would have tied 20% of the Dodgers payroll up with two players who are arguably “journeymen.”   It was a classic “risk vs. reward” and the Dodgers opted not to play a game of “chicken.”

I am also pretty sure that Milwaukee wouldn’t have offered quite the deal Wolf got had he been offered arbitration by the Dodgers – Wolf would have understood that an might have had to accept it.     How the arbitration would have impacted it is something we will never know, but if you think it wouldn’t have affected it, you are Pollyanna.  To date, no one has offered Hudson a contract.  Sure he was pissed off at Torre, but money talks and he could have gotten $7-8 mil from the Dodgers in arbitration.  Some say “Kim Ng has an excellent record at beating players in arbitration” but any attorney knows that anything can happen in court (or arbitration).

The market has been pretty slow for Free Agents.  No one but the Cards have offered a contract to Matt Holiday (arguably this years’ best free agent).  No one is beating down Jason Bays’ door and there are lots of players out there who will not get offers unless they drop their demands.   Adrian Beltre is asking $10-15 mil a year and in my opinion, I think he will be lucky to get $5 mil.  Dodger attendance was not down last year, but “REVENUE” was.   Attendance is one thing, revenue is another issue entirely.  By refusing to offer arbitration the Dodgers are going to be in a good position come February and March.  Randy Wolf had a good year last year, but it was likely his “Career Year.”  He’s the same guy most of you weren’t excited about last year.  

Yes, the Dodgers are “bottom feeders” this year, and they may get just what they need by doing it.  Have you ever considered the “big picture?”  Wait until the off-season is over before passing judgement!

Yeah, Arte Moreno looks really swell – He signed Lackey and Figgins and Matsui, right?  What?  not Lackey and Figgins?  Well, Matsui is a friggin’ gazelle, I tell you!  Moreno is a genius!  Yeah, that’s the ticket! 

You guys kill me with your incessant sobbing!

Come next season, you goofballs are going to look back and say “I must enjoy imagining how bad things were so I could just make myself miserable.”  What a way to live.  NOT!  We must have a $38 million dollar payroll – we are selling off our players right?   WRONG!  Use your heads.  This year we will have to pay our arbitration-eligible players a lot more money and then sign them to EVEN BIGGER contracts in a year or so.  Dope-fiend moves right now will eliminate that possibility. 

This team is going to win.  Now, I am not betting they go to the Series (but I always root for them to do so), but you never know – Remember, big contracts to free agent pitchers seldom work out.   The Dodgers aren’t going to make any more dope-fiend-Jason-Schmidt-Andruw-Jones-Juan-Pierre-Moves. 

I like Jamey Carroll – he is another Indiana Boy  from Don Mattingley’s hometown of Evansville.   His .351 career OB% says what he is about.  I believe we will see a platoon of DeWitt and Carroll at 2B.  Jamey had a .376 OB% against Lefties last year, which is who he will probably face the most.  I would expect to see him maintain that OB% level in Dodger Stadium.  He is a great “Clubhouse guy,” and while not a fast base-runner, he is a very good base-runner.  His defense is solid, if not spectacular, and at www.truebluela.com, Eric Stephen makes a case that Andre Ethiers’ reluctance to charge balls harder may be the result of Orlando Hudson trying to play RF (those are my words not his).  That’s a valid argument.  I would expect to see him and DeWitt fill the #8 hole.   I was not a fan of DeWitt in the beginning, but I believe he is a “Ballplayer” and he just might get us 15-20 HR.

I know that no one is excited to have Luis Ayala, but you have to sign several guys like this every year for the AAA roster, and sometimes you catch “lightening in a bottle.”  Probably not in this case…

On Randy Wolf – some say that he would have not accepted arbitration from the Dodgers with an offer like he got from the Brewers.  HELLO!  The Brewers didn’t make that offer until AFTER he was not offered arbitration.  Randy Wolf would have accepted arbitration – ABSOLUTELY!  Why?  Because he knew that he could get $12+ million in arbitration.  He did not have that $30 mil offer from the Brewers on the table at the time arbitration was to be offered.  He really did not know what his market would be.  He really wanted to stay in SoCal and that was also a factor.  

Just because he was offered arbitration and accepted, would not limit his signing.  So, to say that he would not have accepted is just plain crazy.  He most likely WOULD HAVE accepted.  Why would he NOT keep all his options open?  Ditto with Hudson.  The market did not beat a path to his door last season and they are not doing it again this off-season.  You are delusional if you don’t think he would have accepted arbitration, while still seeking a better deal.  Nobody was willing to pay him much last year and history is repeating itself!  Do any of you really think players who had been “froze out” in last years market would have turned down $12 – 13 mil and $8-9 mil respectively?  THINK PEOPLE!  THINK!

There is uncertainty with the Dodgers situation, especially since the Ownership Issue won’t be resolved until June… at the earliest, but there is no “fire sale” here and the sky is not falling!  The Dodgers have financial constraints, but they will still be around $100 mil in payroll and that’s hardly the San Diego Padres!

CHILL!

According to multiple sources, the Dodgers are chasing Aaron Harang (a player I targeted a while back).  His stats won’t impress you, but he wants to win and was not happy in Cincy.  I don’t predict he’ll be an ace, but he could very well deliver 200+ innings at a 3.75 ERA (or lower) in Dodger Stadium.  Forget the past 3 years stats – this is a case where you have to have “Vision.”  He’ll probably cost the Dodgers McDonald or Elbert, and someone like Repko or Paul.

It’s no secret that the McCourts are in the midst of a messy divorce, but would things be any different if Frank and Jamie were still together?

Would that have caused the Dodgers to offer arbitration to Randy Wolf and/or Orlando Hudson?  Would that have caused the Dodgers to sign Wolf?  Well, no one can be sure, but do you really want 3 years of Randy Wolf?  I mean, two years ago and even last year, many of you didn’t want him back. 

Yeah, the Randy Wolf of 2009 was pretty nice, so nice that he earned the Type A Free Agent Rating, but what are the odds that he stays healthy or continues his level of success in 2010, 2011 and 2012?  I would say the odds are not good.  That’s just my opinion, but I don’t see him as a workhorse.  I do see a guy who could say that he was a Type A Free Agent who had better stats that D-Lowe, and D-Lowe makes $15 mil a year.  That was the most that Wolf stood to make – $15 mil a year, but if he would have asked for, say $13 million a year, he would have had a decent shot at it, especially if the Dodgers offered less than $10 million. 

You might say that the Brewers offered him about $30 mil over 3 years, but what makes you so sure they would have offered the contract if they had to give up compensation?  You don’t know, and there is no way to ever know, but it’s circular thinking to think it would have happened the same way.   I think the Dodgers decided (change that – I know that the Dodgers decided that they did not want to give Randy Wolf a multi-year deal in the $10 mil per year range and they felt he would accept arbitration because (1) he knew he could get $11-15 mil in arbitration ($15 mil is probably too high, but maybe not); and (2) they did not want to commit to a multi-year deal with him.  This is all conjecture, but offering arbitration would have changed the whole dynamic. 

For similar reasons, Orlando Hudson, who did not want to come back to LA, would have jumped at a chance for a $10 million payday.  He was an All-Star and Gold Glove 2B on multiple occasions, and again – a case could be made that he could command up to $10 million a year.  Likely?  MAYBE NOT, BUT POSSIBLE!   It is an extreme example, but it’s possible that the Dodgers could have had 25% of their $100 million payroll tied up with two players.  Again, it may not have been likely, but it was a scenario that the Dodgers had to consider as possible.  If that had happened it would have crippled the Dodgers ability give raises to their youngsters.

Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson made us better in 2009, but I have reason to believe that one of our youngsters can step in and fill their shoes.   McDonald, Troncoso, Elbert, Lindblom and Haeger are in the mix for the first 2 spots behind Billingsley, Kershaw and Kuroda.  Again, come July, more arms will be on the market at a cheaper price.  I see nothing wrong with trying the youngsters and then shopping in July, if necessary.  Should Ned tell you that?  Why play your cards?  This team is going to be very good next year, if only because our players are another year older and more mature.  Blake DeWitt is a “Ballplayer” at 2B, and I would not even sniff at Belliard or Carroll, unless it’s as a utility-man.

Manny Ramirez will also be playing for a new contract and I think he will return with a vengeance.  I also don’t see the Dodgers buying-down Pierre’s contract.  They will keep him or trade him for a pitcher with a “bad contract.”  I still hope for Harang (because I think he has a higher upside than Arroyo), but who knows?  The Dodgers still need bench help, but we already have Xavier Paul, Jason Repko, Juan Pierre and Chin-lung Hu.  Brad Ausmus is a strong possibility again,  and so all we need is another RH infield bat – not Craig Counsell who is LH.

So, back to the question first propounded – would things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  I can’t answer that, but I will ask, should things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  This is a business and is it prudent to sign players like Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones or, for that matter, Manny Ramirez?  I say no.  I am on record this time last year as saying the Dodgers should not sign Manny (something for which I was castigated), but Manny was mostly a “non-factor.”  Go after “Blue Chip” Players, not “cow chip” players.  If we had went after C.C. Sabathia instead of Manny, we would be talking right now about Hudson or Wolf, and we might have won the Series last year. 

I say that when it comes to Free Agents – Go BIG or Stay Home!  Think about it!  There are no “BIG” ones this year, so we should stay home.  Quit trying to “make a silk purse out of a sows ear.”  So, if you are one of the naysayers who say “The Dodgers Won’t Win With The Pitchers They Have,”  You are probably the same ones who told me the Dodgers wouldn’t win without Manny. They didn’t win WITH him.

• After talking with lots and lots of scouts, pro personnel people and writers, I am convinced that the Dodgers did the right thing in refusing arbitration to Wolf and Hudson.  There are lots of reasons why and I will articulate them later this week. 
• I overheard some other scouts talking about the Dodgers Young Arms and one said “they already have better arms than they can trade for or sign.  If I were them, I go with what I have.”
• There’s no doubt the Dodgers have financial constraints – all teams but the Yankees and Mets do too, but it’s not gloom and doom by any means.
• I had a 20 minute interview with De Jon Watson and Logan White today and I think you will be shocked and/or excited to hear what they say about our “much maligned farm system.”   It is a great interview – I hope to have it edited by tomorrow.  I just wish I could have had another 20 minutes.   Josh Rawitch says this may be the first interview of Logan and De Jon together. 
• Wolf is gone – allegedly 3 years/$27 -30 million – not a bad deal, but I’ll tell you why it wouldn’t have been good for the Dodgers tomorrow.
• Rule 5 Draft tomorrow.

• There’s not a lot of movement, so far – Just the D-Backs trade with the Tigers and Yankees.   I find it curious that the D-Backs gave away “Mad-Max” so easily.
• Jamie and Frank have allegedly agreed on her monthly stipend so the hearing is cancelled the 15th!
• Ned is kicking the tires of Pinero and other starters, but he’s not going to be the first to sign someone – and I agree!
• I have did a 180 on the arbitration to Hudson and Wolf – no way the Dodgers  should have offered it.  All the fans say YES they should have, and all the baseball people say NO WAY!
• I am supposed to interview Logan White and De Jon Watson together today.  I have a camera crew ready and will hopefully have it for you tomorrow.  Stay tuned

The Baseball Winter Meetings are being held in Indianapolis beginning on Monday, December 7th thru Thursday, December 10th.  While MLB would not issue me a credential, I will be there and hopefully get lucky.   The only thing that credentials really do is get you inside the interview room when there are news conferences. I can still walk all over the hotel where everything is going on without a problem and report on all that’s going on. Usually, agents or GMs just stop in the hallways and talk to people and I will be right there.  I have one purpose at these meetings – I would like to get a feel of what is really happening with the Dodgers… and I will! 

Ken made a good point yesterday that maybe the Dodgers had a verbal agreement with Wolf and Hudson that they would not offer them arbitration.  That could be a possibility.  I’ll try and find out.  Besides, who should the Dodgers really try and get?   Halladay?  Lackey?  Martinez?  Wolf?  It would take a lot to get Lackey or Halladay and either one is a prospect for arm and/or injury issues.  I am almost of the opinion that we sign Padilla andor Wolf IFthe market is soft and they don’t get better deals elsewhere.  Then, try and get some pitchers line Noach Lowery, Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, et al for insurance.

I’d sooner see the Dodgers get a power hitter for 2B than spend to get Halladay or Lackey.  I may be crazy, but I would not be afraid to go into the season with Kershaw our #1, Billingsley and Kuroda battling for #2 and Haeger as our #5.  Then, let Elbert, McDonald, Troncoso, Lindblom and other battle for the #4 spot.  Something good will come out of that bunch.  You have to bank on internal growth by your young players.  Shoot, I wouldn’t mind a platoon of Jamie Carroll and Blake DeWitt at 2B or maybe try Adrian Beltre at 2B – he’s an excellent athlete.  Think about it!  We’d have power at the position.

I am most concerned about locking up Kemp, Ethier, Kersahw and Billingsley long term.  Are the Dodgers willing to do that?  We have a plethora of pitching prospects who are a yera or so away – trading for a vet who could have arms issue is felony stupid – witness the Jason Schmidt Debacle.

At any rate, I’ll be at the meeting and I’ll be reporting what I see and hear – or maybe I’ll report half of what I see and none of what I hear…

It WAS TRULY a No-Brainer!

The Spin:  “We didn’t think it was prudent to offer Wolf or Hudson arbitration in this down market because we really didn’t want either one and we were afraid they would accept.”

The No-Spin:  “Frank won’t spend a dime and we are a bunch of ignorant jackasses.”

The Spin:  “The divorce won’t have an effect of the Dodgers’ spending.”

The No-Spin:  “Frank McCourt couldn’t run the Dodgers on a good day – watch him really screw it up now.”

The Spin:  “We will have some really good news for Dodger fans shortly.”

The No-Spin:  “We will use Vaseline!”

I said it was a “No Brainer” to offer Wolf and Hudson arbitration.  Frank McCourt has taken a “lethal dose of NO – BRAINS!”

Bottom line:  I have supported Frank McCourt through his debacles.  Now, I understand that he gave up Santana, Bell, Johnson and others becaise he didn’t want to spend a few bucks.  He is not investing in the minor leagues and WE ARE SCREWED!  I am done with these ignorant savages!   The Dodgers will not get another dime from me and NO SUPPORT!  I will call out these Stupid Idiots every chance I get!  You won’t see me at Spring Training – I am going to become a Reds fan!  I am SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO done with these fools!

Dodger Fans Are Screwed!

Just in case you haven’t figured it out, attendance at Dodger Stadium is not the only source of income for the Dodgers.  While their have attendance has been stellar,

Hu's on the team

 most other teams  have seen substantial declines in attendance, which means that the Dodgers get a smaller cut of the gate and concessions.  It is not clear what the amount of the decline is to me, but I estimate it at around $15 to $20 million a year.  Couple that with MLB Apparel and Memorabilia sales declines and the Dodgers could be losing as much as $20 to $25 million a year in revenue as a result of the recession.  It may get better next year.  It may not.  Some teams (can you say Cincinnati Reds?) are looking to dump payroll.  The Dodgers are looking to stay level or even drop payroll.  I have an idea:

How about Juan Pierre, James McDonald, Ivan DeJesus, Jr., and Blake DeWitt to the Reds for either Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips?  Up-shoot:  The Reds save $10 mil a year and get some prospects (along with a  leadoff hitter – Dusty Baker loves Pierre) and the Dodgers spend only an extra $10 mil to get an “inning eater” pitcher and a 2B.  Next, the Dodgers should offer Hudson and Wolf arbitration, making it clear to Hudson that Phillips is the 2B, and if he won his arbitration case he’d be a backup.  Hudson would decline arbitration, but Wolf could accept.  That’s fine!

Dole out the raises to the youngsters and the Dodgers are done!  Our rotation would look something like this:

1. Kershaw
2. Billingsley
3. Kuroda
4. Arroyo/Harang
5. Wolf or Heager

Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Phillips  2B
7. Loney  1B
8. Blake 3B

I could live with that!  Harang makes $11.5 mil next year and Arroyo makes $11 mil, so pick ‘em.  You never know – they could be a dud or they could be a Godsend!  Sometimes you have to roll the dice.  Castro is headed to Philly and Hu is the logical backup infielder.  Xavier Paul, Jason Repko and Jamie Hoffman are candidates for two outfield spots.  Ausmus may or may not play for a million next year, but if he doesn’t Ellis or another bargain Free Agent will be available. 

The Dodgers should be able to field an excellent team for under (or around) $100 million.  Harang and Arroyo’s average years are not what I expect.  I would hope for a “carrer year” for whichever one come to LA.  You gotta’ believe!  The “kids” will be year better next and Martin and Loney will “breakout.”  Believe it!

GoodNews/BadNews:

• Bud Selig will be commissioner at least 3 more seasons.
• The Marlins are shopping Josh Johnson… Hummmmmm, I may have to revise my thinking…

If you have a home which is worth $400,000 or $400,000,000 and you are served divorce papers by your spouse,  what do you do?  It’s obvious that a great part of the parties’ net worth is that asset.  Some people are idiots about this – some have even burned-down the house rather than split the proceeds.  Are the McCourts that stupid?  I doubt it.  Both appear to be greedy, self-absorbed, high-achievement people whom I think  want to maximize their investments.  What should they do?    The biggest asset I think is the Dodgers.  They have to keep that asset shiny and new – to make money now and to make the asset continue to appreciate.  That’s why I think they will “Paint the House, not Blow-Up the House!  We might not have a $120 million payroll, but it won’t be $75 million either!

SECOND BASE- I think that the Dodger Brass has identified 2B as a position that needs a power upgrade.  Casey Blake is not a Big HR Hitter at 3B, Raffy isn’t at SS, Loney currently is not a power hitter at 1B, and Martin is not a HR hitter at C.  Our only power is in the outfield.   I think many people believe the Dodgers “stuck it to” Orlando Hudson so as not to have to pay him.  If it had been $3 million, I’d buy it, but $10,000 or $190,000 (which is actually closer) is “chump change.”  I think Joe Torre played Belliard in the playoffs (which didn’t count on O-Dog’s incentives) so they would have more power.  I believe that’s the long and short of it, which brings me to what they will do at 2B next year.  Read the full story

The Dodgers have improved over 2008.   They won more games, but they still couldn’t get past the Phillies, and the Phillies will still be good next year.  I suspect that Raul Ibanez had his career year and will slip back to reality next year and the Phillies will have some holes to fill, just like the Dodgers.  Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have a former ace who needs to come back and I believe both will.  It would not surprise me to see either one win a Cy Young Award in the future, even as easly as next year.  I fully expect Hamels and Billingsley to both win 16-18 games next year.  Both pitchers have too much talent.

Manny will return as Manny, because he’s playingfor Manny,  and the Dodgers should benefit from his quest for a new contract, in what will certainly be his last year as a Dodger.  Look for Manny to hit .320+ with 35 HR and 130 RBI.  I look for more growth by Kemp and Ethier as both become perennialAll-Stars.   Russ Martin?  He’ll be back with a vengeance!  Count on it!    I do see two areas in which the Dodgers need to improve:  They need more power from 3B and 1B and they will get it from James Loney at 1B, who I believe will hit around 25 dingers.  He has shown he is capable.  3B is another issue.  Casey Blake had a better year than I expected, but he’s still a journeyman at best.   We need a big HR bat at 3B and will will get robbed if we try and trade or one.  Here’s what we do:  Sign Adrian Beltre!  Sign Adrian Beltre.   He loves LA and is a cinch to hit 30 for the Dodgers.  Yeah, I know you don’t believe me, but he will!    If you want to look at stats, then I’ll use the year he hit 48 HR as a stat!  He’s young enough that we can sign him to a 5 year deal.   That means we need to dump Blake, and we can do that in a deal for Roy Halliday. I purpose that we trade Jon Broxton, Casey Blake, James McDonald, Ethan Martin,  and Chris Withrow to Toronto for Roy Halliday (pay a lot, get a lot).  I am not a Blake hater, but we need to get younger and better at 3B! Read the full story

The Top 10 - In No Particular Order

I have no clue where this “Debacle in the Ravine will take us, but I’d say Jamie does not have the upper hand.   No, I’m not going to speculate on who we will sign and who we won’t or who we should trade.  Today, I just want to do some “farming.”  Let’s take a look at the Dodgers top prospects. Read the full story

 This team is far from needing rebuilding, but any good team needs to ”retool” every year.  Last year, the Phillies won the World Series with Pat Burrell in LF.  They evidently decided

Must Be A Padre Fan...

 that he wasn’t the answer this year, so they signed a guy even older who ended up having his career year.   The Phillies may yet be sorry that they signed Raul Ibanez, but right about now, that move is looking pretty good.    They added Shane Victorino and Jason Werth in 2005 and 2007 as key pieces to the puzzle.  How did they get them?  No Big Blockbuster Deals, just incidental signings, which turned out to be pretty good.    I don’t think we need to rebuild – the core of the team is in place, but re-tool, we must!

I have taken the 40-Man Roster, plus some others who are technically not on it and divided them into three (3) groups:

1. Core players who we need to keep – in BLUE;
2. Players who we needs to keep under the right conditions – in BLACK; and
3. Players we need to try and lose, trade, release or not sign – in RED.

It’s not hard to see that our core is young and will get even better.  I have Jon Broxton on the BLUE list (even though I have serious doubts about him), because we don’t currently have better options (that too could change).  Now, I am not saying that I wouldn’t trade Broxton or some of the others, but it would have to be a trade that we would make from a point of strength.  Read the full story

No matter how bleak it looks, and being down 3-1 is bleak, especially after a loss was snatched from the jaws of victory, we have to hope for a miracle.  It’s a big blow, but the Dodgers have to recover and realize that victory is still attainable.  Therefore, I will be watching every pitch in game 5.  I am not convinced that Torre will start Padilla, but we will see.  The hook will be short.  I think Joe Torre should “shake it up a little.”  I would reward James Loney for his play, even if a lefty is on the mound and I would consider leading off with Martin.  Casey Blake is playing well in the field, but he has had no bat in the post-season.  Orlando Hudson needs to play!

Tonight, is for everything!  Anything CAN happen!  Go Dodgers!

Dodger Notes:

• Andrew Lambo continues to destroy pitching in the AFL (.478) and hit his second grand slam in a week.
• Lucas May is hitting .294 and Russ Mitchell has 3 HR, but Lambo is just out of his mind.
• Dylan Hernandez of The LA Times says that Jon Broxton has entered an infamous fraternity.
• Manny is a knucklehead, as evidenced by his leaving the bench in the 9th inning.  Something tells me he may not be a Dodger next year (not because of that).  I can see him getting traded to the AL with the Dodgers eating some $$$$.  Read the full story

No Dumbass Vaccine!

Blame it all on Joe Torre if you want, but when we score ZERO runs, the likelihood of losing is pretty high.  Blame it on Kuroda if you want.  Blame it on Billingsley or the fact that  we left Jon Garland and Jeff Weaver off the playoff roster.  But, the reality of the situation is that we have seen the Dodgers do this before.  The team that lead the league in batting average and on-base percentage and was 4th in runs scored is hitting 46points below their season batting average and 69 points below their seasons OB%,  and have been outscored 20-8!   Now, their 6.92 ERA is horrible, but most of that was acquired yesterday in the 11-0 loss.   The Dodgers have scored 8 runs in 3 games against the Phillies and have been lucky to win one game!  We should be down 3 games to none and facing elimination and yet, we are only down by 1 game.  That’s the good news.

The bad news is that we have all seen this happen before – usually when this teams offense goes into an offensive funk (which is where they are now), it takes a week or two to snap back.  Well, we don’t have a week or two.  We have a game or two.  WE NEED TO WIN TODAY and I won’t put this on Randy Wolf.  I put it on Manny, Raffy, Casey, Andre, Matt, James, Russ, and Orlando (I think he needs to start – not that Ronnie did anything wrong – it’s just a gut feeling), who are our starters.  The offense needs to GET WELL NOW and jump all over the Phillies’ pitching – no matter who is pitching.  Ronnie Belliard has been good, but Orlando Hudson is MOTIVATED to show Joe Torre he deserves to start.  I would start O-Dog today, if for no other reason than to get another left-handed bat in there. 

If the boys don’t bring their bats today, it could be a long, cold winter and I still can’t believe that the morons who own the team couldn’t keep their mouths shut for a couple of weeks.  It just simply proves what Jimmy Buffett sings about (in bold) Read the full story