Before this season started and “The Divorce” was in full swing, many readers and fans held Arte Moreno up is as an ideal owner, and held FrankMcCourt up as a “scumbag owner.”  Now, on August 24, 2010, both Dodgers and Angels fans find themselves in just about the same predicament:  The Dodgers are one game over .500 and out of the pennant race (and wild card race), and the Angels are one game below .500 and out of the pennant race for all practical purposes.

It could happen to anyone.

The Yankees have spent over $2 billion on payroll since 2000 and have only one World Series Championship to show for it.

It could happen top anyone.

The Red Sox, whose GM is touted as among the smartest in baseball and have a payroll of over $160 million are also out of it for all practical purposes.

It could happen to anyone.

That’s what losers say.  I prefer to say that while it can happen to anyone, the good teams make sure that it doesn’t happen to them again.

Nothing is so constant as change and unless the Dodgers are insane (insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results), they need to make some big changes.  While those changes can’t all me made immediately, the white flag needs to be raised and the purge needs to begin.  12 games have been overcame in less time, but not with this team.  This is a team whose biggest question going into the season was lack of starting pitching.  Even the naysayers who predicted a .500 record said they didn’t doubt that the team would score runs.

Well, they haven’t scored – at least on the field!  Since the All-Star break the Dodgers have averaged about 3 runs a game.  That in itself, is horrible, but then the bullpen imploded and blew nearly every winnable game.  Surprisingly, the starting pitching has been solid.  The lack of hitting and lack of a bullpen has killed the Dodgers.  I also think there is one other factor:  The Manager and Coaches Have Lost This Team!

When it happened, I don’t know.

How it happened, I don’t know.

Look, Joe Torre is nor a cerebral manager.  He is a Hall-Of-Famer, but sometimes being a Hall-of-Famer is just being in the right place at the right time.   Maybe Joe Torre was the perfect manager for the Yankees and their big contracts and big egos and the bigger pressures of playing in NY.  I am not going to take away his HOF status, but this team has quit on him.

Speaking of being in the right place at the right time, I wonder if we would look at Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks differently if Dan Mario had played for the 49′ers with All-Pros 2 or 3 deep at every position and an offensive genius as a coach, and Joe Montana had played for the Dolphins with no running game and few All-Pros.  Time and place are everything.

Ned Colletti is part of the problem.  He has done some very good things and also some very bad things in his tenure.  I believe he deserves another year, but the last time the Dodgers had such a disappointing year, both the GM (Paul DePodesta) and the Manager (Jim Tracy) were shown the door.  That’s possible here as well, but I would give Ned another year, because he seems to learn from his mistakes, James McDoanld and Blake DeWitt notwithstanding.  In my opinion, this year is a bigger disappointment, because of the level of talent on this team.

Joe Torre and Company need to be shown the door.  We don’t need a manager who is ineffective as a hitting coach, and our pitching needs a fresh approach.  The new manager needs to be a younger guy (in my opinion) and needs to be someone who can “work a room.”  He needs to be a motivator, a disciplinarian and a tactician.  Could that guy be our backup catcher?    Maybe.  Maybe not!

I just know that change must come.  How sweeping it is needs to be determined soon.  At this juncture, Ned should make sure that Manny, Blake, Kuroda, Lilly, Theriot, Podsednik and Broxton are all on waivers.  The Dodgers could get lucky on one or two of them.

Russ Martin may never return and Loney, Kemp and Ethier have not blossomed as they should have.  It could happen to anyone is something that I will not accept as an excuse.

It’s time to turn the page!

Of course, anything is possible, but being 11 games out of first place on August 17th is not a good position to be in.  It’s highly unlikely that the Dodgers can advance to the playoffs for the third straight year.  There are a variety of reasons for this, but the not the least of which is the disconnect between the coaches and the players.  Joe Torre and Company are not known for being brilliant strategists, and that issue was readily exposed this season.  In my opinion, none of the coaching staff should be back.  There needs to be a clean sweep.  I would give Ned Colletti one more year.  I think he has learned a lot, but I still think giving up James McDonald for Dotel was a bonehead move.  I believe that James McDonald IS BETTER RIGHT NOW than Octavio Dotel.   Giving up Santana was a little more understandable (and the jury is out on that one – I’m not saying it was smart), but McDonald was boneheaded!  I liked Blake DeWitt, but that wasn’t a big deal.  The Dodgers do have to decide what to do with Theriot and Lilly however.

Now, since the Dodgers are effectively out of the race, what happens over the next two weeks will help define their future.  Contrary to the naysayers, who said McCourt wouldn’t spend big on the draft, the Dodgers did just that and broke the bank to sign Zach Lee.  As Jared mentioned, those of you who doubted Logan White’s veracity should be ashamed!   If the Dodgers had offered arbitration to Wolf or Hudson, and one (or both) had accepted, there would have been no Zach Lee signing, and to those who said that they would not have accepted arbitration, I say:  ”You also said McCourt would not pay money for draftees – you have no credibility!”

Now, I freely admit that Frank McCourt has some problems and I think he really has taken too much money from the Dodgers and that his lifestyle is too decadent, but I don’t have all the inside info.  That’s not something anyone has.  I also see all the things he has accomplished and I believe Dodger Fans have an owner who is in it for the long haul.  ”The Divorce” looms large and will go a long in determining the Dodgers future.  It will be interesting as to what happens, but I believe Frank is in the “drivers’ seat.”  That is speculation on my part and I won’t spend much time saying much more because speculation is not worth ZIP!  We just have to wait and see what happens.

• Casey Blake has cleared waivers and it would be nice if someone took him, but I doubt it.  He has slipped badly this year and really can’t be counted on to be a starter next year.  He’ll be an expensive sub!  The Dodgers need a new 3B.
• As bad as Dodger Fans felt Russ Martin was playing, he looks like a Superstar compared to Ellis and Ausmus.  Dodger fans do need to realize that Martin may not be back next year.   Add a catcher to the shopping list.  AJ Ellis probably isn’t even a backup.  Add a catcher to the Dodgers’ shopping list.
• We all know that Manny will be gone after the season.  Let’s hope that he comes back strong and clears waivers, so that some AL team can absorb a little salary to give the Dodgers some relief next year.  Add a left fielder to the shopping list.
• My biggest hope is that Raffy come back and burns up the league and can be traded before August 31st.  I was against his signing because of his injury history and “all out style of play.”  The Dodgers can’t count on him to help much next year.  They should cut bait, if they can!  Add a Starting Shortstop to the equation, although I doubt he can be traded without eating half of his salary.
• As much as the relief pitching has sucked this year, the nature of relievers is that they frequently have off years and then bounce back with stellar seasons.  I believe that the Dodgers are OK in this area, regardless of what the stats say.
• Kuroda, Padilla and Lilly are all Free Agents.  No way the Dodgers offer Kuroda arbitration – maybe Padilla, and if Lilly wants to stay, they might opt to sign him top a 3-year deal.
• Kershaw has shown that he can be the Dodgers ace and Chad Billingsley has been excellent since the end of April with an ERA near 3.00.  I think Lilly fits nicely in the Dodgers rotation – it’s just a question of whether he is affordable.
• As crazy as you think it might be, Charlie Haeger may play the role of the 5th starter next year.  Think RA Dickey!
• Jon Broxton’s star has waned, but he still has good value and the Dodgers just need to trade him over the winter.  He’ll command too much for that position.  If I were the Dodgers, I would not pay it.  Kuo and Jansen can close.  If Belisario gets his head screwed on straight he’ll be an asset too, and Cheryl falls off the books (I hope).
• I have to wonder about the entire coaching staff in the minors and I think that has to be re-evaluated.  We have too many youngstersunderachieving (McDonald, Lindblom, Withrow, Martin, et al).  It’s time for a fresh look.  The Dodgers minor league system is under-preforming with regards to some very good prospects.  Nothing is sacred or off-limits.  The right people are not in place.  Heads must roll.
• I predict Matt Kemp will figure it out and be a Bison again in 2011!
• The Dodgers have a big “re-tooling job” to do in the off-season, which starts now!  C, 3B, SS and LF are wide open!

It pains me greatly to say this.  I never raise the white flag, but Ned tried and it was too little, too late.  

Podsednik, Theriot, Lilly and Dotel arrived at the fort after the troops had already been massacred.

This year is done.  It’s time to hop on the Bus Gus, we don’t need to discuss much.

It is time to look at the core of this team, and decide who has to stay and who can go.  I think it’s really very simple:  most of the core of this team are players who are under team control for the next few years, but not all are “core players.”

Immediately, the following players should be placed on waivers (of course, some like Sherrill , Blake and Anderson will not be claimed, but some will):

• Sherrill
• Anderson
• Lilly
• Podsednik
• Theriot
• Dotel
• Broxton
• Padilla
• Kuroda
• Martin
• Blake
• Furcal
• Ramirez
• Weaver
• Belliard
• Carroll

You don’t need to be coy, Roy, just listen to me. Here’s my rationale:  The Dodgers will actually keep some of those players, but a few could bring us some TOP (I mean TOP) Prospects in return.  Tampa Bay or the White Sox covet Manny, and while the Dodgers won’t get a ton for him, they should be able to recover $2 to $4 mil and a Top 10 Prospect for him.  Broxton and Furcal will both bring two Top Prospects, I mean really good players.  Raffy can help a team win it all THIS year.  The Dodgers only control him one more year and he’s getting older, so they need to see what they can get.  If they can get two Top Prospects for him, they should do it.   Just drop off the key, Lee and set yourself free!

I am a believer that you don’t pay a closer $10 mil, and Broxton will be there soon.  Never mind that I have an “irrational hatred of him” – he needs to go, and get us a couple more top prospects.  Stockpile those bad boys.    Someone may want Podsednik, Theriot, Lilly, Dotel, Padilla, Kuroda, Martin, Weaver and Carroll or Belly.  They won’t all go, but some will.  Jansen, Lindblom, Belisario, Kuo, Guerra and others wait to close.

Just slip out the back, Jack. Look, I like Raffy – but let’s get real.  He’s having a career year.  Trade him before he gets hurt!

Here’s the Dodger’s core:

• Kemp
• Ethier
• Loney
• Kershaw
• Billingsley

That’s it!  Those 5 guys are the Dodgers Core.   I used to love Russ Martin, but he’s not a “core player.”  Matt Kemp showed how good he can be when he is focused, like last night.  He got called out in the press the day before, admitted he needed to do better, and immediately did it!  He has Superstar talent.  The play where Loney got thrown out at 3B could have happened to anyone in that same situation.  I  can’t fault Kemp on that one (and I have been critical of him this year).  Kemp was scoring easily and wasn’t dogging it, but was in a mode that wasn’t top speed (and rightfully so).   If anything, we should be ragging on Loney for going to 3B.

The Dodgers should lock those 5 guys  up long term!    RIGHT NOW!    Belisario, Kuo, Jansen, Monasterios, Paul, Hu, DeJesus, Sands (?), Lindblom,  Ely, Ellis and others will be around also.

Take the prospects the Dodgers can get for Martin, Broxton, Lilly, Manny and others and add them to their stable of prospects.  Oh, and sign Zach Lee!  NOW!

That’s my plan.  Make it so, Ned.

Oh, here’s your short list for managers next year:

• Gibson (if he’s available)
• Scioscia (yeah, I know, but…)
• Ausmus
• Wallach

Pick one!

1. We have all watched the hitters on this bipolar team for 3 years, and it seems that they are all smoking hot or all ice cold. Some of it was predictable.  When Andre Ethier was hitting .393 we all knew he couldn’t keep that up.  That his batting average has dropped a .100 points is no shock.  What will be a shock is if he doesn’t go on a tear and get it back up to the .310+ range.  I think his time off with family will help him re-focus and heal.  I will be shocked if he doesn’t start his late-inning heroics again.
2. Why this team runs hot and cold has to have some root in the coaching.  The Dodgers have 2 batting coaches and I see Torre talking to guys about hitting as well.  Could it be that they are irrelevant… or worse?  That has to be considered.  In my opinion, everything is on the table, up to and including the firing of Mattingly and Pentland!   Bring in a fresh face.  I know it’s late in the season, but in what way could it hurt?  Could they hit any worse?  It might serve as a “wake-up call.”
3. It’s probably too late in the year for Matt Kemp to recover his focus and screw his head on straight.  Matt Kemp should be carrying this team, but he is dragging it down.  The whispers around the ballpark are that he has a crappy attitude, and it is obvious to everyone that he has lost focus on the field.  He could regain it with a big SLAP IN THE FACE (like sit him for the next series and announce why), but it will probably take the whole off-season to do it, IF he can do it.    Matt Kemp is a classic case that proves the difference between a superstar and a journeyman lies almost solely between the ears!  Matt is at a crossroads in his career.  Robinson Cano was at a similar crossroads in 2008, when he hit .246 the first half of the season with 6 HR – he has rebounded nicely!  Is Kemp closer to being Robinson Cano or Raul Mondesi? That is the question.
4. Russ Martin and Casey Blake both hitting 20 to 30 points below their career averages does nothing but garner support that Pentland and Mattingly must go! I already have serious questions about Mattingly’s mangerial ability anyway!
5. I am certain that Ned had to take Theriot and give up DeWitt in order to get Lilly, and that may or may not have been a good move – time will tell.  This I do know – Blake DeWitt doesn’t have the arm and the power for 3B, so forget that nonsense.  He was never going to be the Dodgers (or for that matter, anyone’s) third baseman.  I think Blake DeWitt will be a fine 2B and I still believe he will hit 15-20 HR, especially at Wrigley.
6. Now, that I have pretty much trashed the team, I will say that we all know they are capable of getting “white hot.”   I can see a big run left in this team, say where they win 22 out of 25 games!  They have done it before.  Belisario will be back soon.  Reed Johnson will be back and Manny will return in a couple of weeks, and hopefully Garrett Anderson will retire.  I still think that they have one last BIG RUN left in them.  With Lilly filling the #5 spot, and the rotation very solid, the bullpen better with Dotel and the return of Belisario, I do not think the Dodgers are dead.  The next series will determine their fate.  They just need to bring their brooms!
7. Kershaw and Billingsley and Kuroda and Padilla are among the best quartets of starters in baseball right now.  Kershaw and Billingsley have certainly been stellar lately.  The Matt Kemp of 2009 may have caught the double in the gap last night…
8. I have also resolved to only say good things about Jon Broxton:  So here goes:  When he is gone – GOOD!

BTW – Lilly is an A Free Agent – The rest of the new trades are all B’s.

I will preface what I am about to say, by stating that the Dodgers are capable of reeling off a 15 game winning streak!

Matt Kemp's Addiction

1. Jon Broxton can be a great closer, but he just lacks the “C” in closer, which makes him a loser.  According to some pin-headed bloggers (Jon Weisman not included), I have an irrational hatred of Broxton.   You are entitled to your own opinion and you are just as entitled to be a moron.  ”Broxton is great, look at his stats, la,la, la, la.”  You are fine.  Take your Prozac, Carry on!  Dig this:  Broxton needs to be traded.  NOW!
2. Rhianna!  The sooner she dumps Kemp, the sooner he heads to superstardom!  No explanation necessary.
3. Manny Ramirez needs to just go away.  He doesn’t want to play the field.  Even Ray Charles can see that!  Trade him to the Yanks or Tampa Bay.  Do it now!  X-Paul in LF makes us better. Live with it.  (I TOLD YOU THE DODGERS SHOULDN’T HAVE SIGNED MANNY, DIDN’T I?)
4. Cheryl and Anderson. They must go.  End of story!
5. Russell Martin needs to quit being a slugger and just be Russell Martin. Don’t be an idiot, Russ.  Let me re-phrase that:  Stop being and idiot, Russ!
6. Will the real Ronald Belisario Stand Up?  If he can’t come back strong, the Dodgers are screwed!
7. Can Ramon Troncoso re-discover his outstanding sinker?  (See Ronald Belisario)
8. Kenley Jansen needs to be in the Dodgers bullpen.  End of story!  What are you waiting for, Ned?
9. Joe Torre needs to be sipping Mint Julips at the Kentucky Derby and taking his Geritol with his Bigelow Tea.  His fire is gone.  Stick a fork in him, he’s done!  Ditto on Mattingly, Bowa, Schafer, Pentland and Honeycutt – It’s time for a new perspective!
10. If Frank McCourt doesn’t allow the Dodgers to get a  #1 or #2 Starter, then he has to go.  I have defended the fact that he would spend to get an arm, and with Broxton as a trading chip, he should be able to get Roy Oswalt.  If that doesn’t happen, then I hope Jamie’s argument is ruled upon favorably and the Dodgers will be sold.

CHAD BILLINGSLEY ROCKS!

Russell Martin?

Pavolv had this dog who heard a bell ring and he proceeded to salivate all over himself. That sometimes happens when you see an young attractive lady walking down the street too.  In the instant case, I think that Russell Martin is “Pavlov’s Dog.”

Jeff Pentland, Joe Torre and Don Mattingly work with him, and work with him, and work with him about “going the other way,” but when he sees a fastball, it’s like a bell goes off in his head and he salivates all over himself to pull the pitch.  Pavlov’s Dog – that’s what he is!

The cost of RBI’s for 1B is pretty steep these days.

Ryan Howard – $19 mil – 65 RBI

Albert Pujols –  $16 mil – 64 RBI

James Loney –  $3.1 mil – 63 RBI

I’m just sayin’….

Forget all the stats – James Loney IS the Dodgers MVP for the first half of the season. James Loney is 2 RBI’s away from being tied with the league leader.  He has accomplished that from mostly the 5th or 6th spot, whereas the leaders have mostly been #3 or #4 hitters.  I’d like to see James Loney hit more HR and I do think he will, but he’s pretty good right now.

The Dodgers  had another first basemen discover his power later and that would be Steve Garvey.  Through 2,159 AB’s, James Loney (Age 26) has 51 HR’s.  Through 2,424 AB’s Steve Garvey (Age 26) had 64 HR’s and he hit 37 of those at age 25 and 26.  You saw the HR James hit yesterday.  As he gets a little older, he’ll have more power and more ability to recognize when he can pull.

While Matt Kemp has been better lately, his base-running, fielding and lack of hitting has hurt his ability to be considered for MVP.  Andre Ethier and Manny have been injured too much.  Truth be known, Rafael Furcal is right up there too.

Right here, right now, if there are runners on 2B and 3B and you need an RBI, there’s no one on the Dodgers I’d rather see up there than James Loney!  Give him his props!

Congrats to the Dodgers All-Stars:

• Jon Broxton
• Andre Ethier
• Rafael Furcal
• Hong-chih Kuo

Make us proud!

Next blog post:  Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance

Jared Massey and I were both at Blogger Night in LA on Monday Night and during the six plus hours at Dodger Stadium we gained a lot of insight into the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers.  So,

Ned Colletti chatting with us stinkin'bloggers

here is some of what we have learned:

Ned Colletti spoke with us for nearly an hour and was forthright, honest, never-hedging questions and downright frank.  He answered every question and gave Dodger fans some reasons to believe.  Here’s some of what he said:

• Ned Colletti admitted that during his Dodger tenure, he’s made good and bad deals and said that in the beginning he tried too hard to make things happen, which resulted in bad deals.   He showed me that he can be critical of himself and look at things with a rational and scientific mind.
• Is he worried about Russ Martin?  Yes, but it’s not for a lack of trying – he’s still one of the hardest workers on the team (Vicente Padilla is another).
• Jerry Sands – “Professional approach and great leadership.”  Cautious, yet very optimistic!
• Ned expects James McDonald to get back into the swing of things, and has not ruled him being a starter. It is natural for McDonald at this stage to be working on his pitch consistency and Ned likened him to Eric Gagne in this respect.
• John Ely – Ned Colletti shared a story of discussing options with Juan Pierre after the 2009 season. Colletti’s relationship with Ely’s college coach at Miami gave him confidence in Ely as part of the deal. Colletti had great things to say about Ely; he likes how he competes and “how his thought process adapts mid-game.” Colletti also gave Ely a lot of credit for his start at Wrigley Field, especially being a native Chicago boy and having the hometown pressure, but he was cautious about not reading too much into Ely’s early success and recent lack of it.  Personally, I think Ely is AAA bound.
• Blake DeWtt – Ned appreciates  how hard Blake works. He talked about DeWitt being a great guy to be on the team for his character, and Ned values character, which brings me to…
• Garret Anderson, who according to Colletti, still has a lot of value to the club and “can be a threat.” This is the part where I thought Ned was high on drugs. Put down the crack pipe, Ned!
• Xavier Paul has a lot of potential and his call-up hinges on Manny Ramirez’ status.  Ned talked about  how challenging it is to try to refine and advance a players’s development at the major league level.
  

  Ron Cey and Jared - Jared doesn't even remember him...

• Matt Kemp – he liked how Kemp’s positive results the last couple of games.  Not mentioning Kemp in particular, he did say how difficult this game is to play, and how the Hall-of-Fame Players that he has seen have had to keep working at it diligently even when they’re at the top of their game, and mentioned how particularly difficult that is to do in baseball.
• Ned emphatically stated that he Dodgers are very determined to sign Zach Lee, and he said it was a challenge to have their first pick in the draft so low in the order, which is why the Dodgers took a chance on him.  He was Top 10 or Top 5 Talent and due to the Dodgers winning ways, they generally don’t pick so high, so Lee was worth the risk.  I got the feeling from Ned that the Dodgers were willing to pay 3 to 4 million for Lee, maybe more!
• Ned said that he is also looking for relief pitching, but that it is is so volatile, it’s hard to find quality relievers at the trade deadline.
• George Sherrill? Ned has no clue why he is struggling (I told you to trade him, Ned).  When asked if Sherill had been asked to go to the minors, Ned paused, long enough to let us know that the Dodgers had asked him and he had refused!  When asked that, Ned didn’t deny it.
• Colletti thinks the time off for Ramon Troncoso will help him work out the kinks in some of his pitches.  He said that his sinker wasn’t sinking.
• He talked about how the Vicente Padilla deal happened and how it involved personal face-to-face contact regarding Padilla’s reputation prior to joining the Dodgers. Colletti appreciates how Padilla has been “a model citizen” for the team.  He said that Padilla promised he would not be a problem (he did not promise that he wouldn’t shoot himself in the foot, however).
• Scott Elbert – He hopes he comes back and fixes whatever was eating him.
• Ned is acting like he will be able to take on payroll if the right opportunity presents itself (which I have been saying all along).
• Ned says that Josh Lindblom’s velocity is down, and they have no clue why.  By the way, I have observed that Jon Broxton’s velocity is also down.  Hummmm….
• Ned recounted his first “disagreement” with Joe Torre.  When Ned had first brought Clayton Kershaw up (because the coaches “begged” for it), Ned told Joe that he needed to be handled with kid gloves.  One particular game, Joe left him in and brought him out in the 8th inning, during which Clayton had problems and was ultimately removed.  Ned said he bit his tongue until he got home and asked Joe “can you explain your thought process in bringing Clayton back for the 8th inning?”  To which Joe, said “I get it boss.  I get it!“
• I also talked to another Dodger employee who said that he was convinced (through conversations with common friends) that Randy Wolf would have “almost certainly” accepted arbitration and would have probably gotten around $12 mil (their number, not mine) and that if Wolf  had accepted arbitration, he could have offered the Dodgers a two year deal in the $18 to $20 mil range.  He also went on to say that the Dodgers felt Wolf had his career year and was not worth that.  He acknowledged that O-Dog was not as likely to have accepted arbitration, but that Ned says “When you OFFER arbitration, you had better be prepared to PAY it.”  It’s easy to say the Dodgers should have offered arbitration to Hudson, but IT’S NOT YOUR MONEY!  IT’S EASY TO SPEND OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY!  He also said that Wolf is miserable in Milwaukee…
  

  Ron and I comparing notes on our hip replacements

All-in-all, this was the best blogger night ever. The Dodgers had Roy Cey, Lou Johnson, Kim Ng, Dennis Mannion, Josh Rawitch, Ned Colletti, the High-Life Man and others drop by the suite for conversation.  Mannion was as engaged as he was engaging.  Josh Rawitch did an awesome job in putting this together and you have to give him credit for being way ahead of the curve by getting bloggers involved.

I left feeling that the Dodgers are in good hands with Ned Colletti as GM.  Some talk about Kim Ng and Logan White being GM’s, and while they may or may not ever become one, Ned is the consummate professional in this respect.  He delegates, is through, thoughtful, scientific, personally probing and level-headed – perfect for a GM!  He admits to learning from his mistakes and is not eager to repeat them.  What more can you ask?

Eleven Things That Will Happen  in the Second Half

1. I expect the Dodgers to acquire an arm.  They didn’t have that hitter to get  Cliff Lee that the Rangers did.  Oswalt is still a possibility…. However, Ned plays his cards close to the vest.  Speculation who the Dodgers will get is just that – speculation.  I do predict that they will get a top-of-the-rotation starter.
2. Manny will get hot and carry the team for a spell.  I think Joe will “ease” him back in.
3. Ace?  Clayton Kershaw is just improving little-by-little EVERY start.  Joe is about ready to anoint him the ace.  Clayton will step into the #1 spot after the All-Star Break.  It will be Kershaw, Kuroda, Billingsley and Padilla.  All Ned has to do is find a Number 2 or Number 3, but Oswalt would do too.
4. Ely will return to AAA.  Classic case of the league catching up to him.
5. Rafael Furcal will continue his hot ways.  He only needs a handful of at-bats to qualify for the lead in the batting average race.  He looks like the Young Raffy!  He is the Dodgers spark plug.  It was good to see him make the All-Star team and he deserved it over Reyes anyway.
6. George Cheryl will be given a few more weeks, but the Dodgers can’t continue to ride a limping horse.  At some point, that horse will have to be “put-down” if it can’t recover.
7. Brad Ausmus will be back and play a large role off the bench, both as a backup to Martin and a pinch hitter.
8. Garrett Anderson will have to be replaced by Xavier Paul.  Jon Weisman made an excellent case why Paul is the better choice and why AAA does nothing for him.  By the way, how about the play where Paul threw to the cutoff man and got the runner at the plate?  Good block by AJ too!  AJ is who we thought he was – a .214 hitter.
9. Look for a hot streak by both Ethier and Kemp.  Kemp is climbing out of the doghouse and is slowly getting his act together.
10. The surprise of the second half will be Vicente Padilla, who has some of the best stuff in all of baseball.   I still think this team will win 94-95 games.
11. The pitching will become rock-solid the second half.  Write it down.  You may see some new faces:  McDonald, Troncoso will be back and maybe a pitcher or two acquired by way of trade.  Cheryl and Miller and Ely will likely be gone soon.

• Charlie Haeger cleared waivers (nobody, but nobody, wanted him).  That sums it up pretty well.
• Andre Ethier will be a starter in the All-Star Game.  Good for him.
• Other Dodgers who should be on the team:  Clayton Kershaw, Jon Broxton, Rafael Furcal.
• 5 – The over and under on how many games Manny misses.  Vote now, vote often.
• Casey Blake is better than you think and he’s better defensively than LaRoche.  Maybe Ned knew something we didn’t.  Josh Bell was called up after hitting just .266 at AAA.  Maybe the Dodgers had no 3B in the pipeline…
• I though Andy LaRoche would be much better than what he has shown.
• Raffy makes a huge difference on this team.  If he stays healthy, the Dodgers will be hard to beat.  He’s playing as well as he ever have.  EVER!
• The D-Backs fired Hinch and Byrnes – WOW! is all I can say…  But, what I really dislike is that Dodger Legend, Kirk Gibson is now manager.  This is just wrong…
• For those of you who think I hate Jon Broxton:  You can think what you want.  I like the Big Guy, I just think he melt’s down on the big stage too often.  Can he change that?  Andre Ethier did.  I used to rag on Andre…  Look, I run a business.  I own my own business and I manage people, and people who have talent, I often push harder.  Jon Broxton should be so much better than he is and that’s why it upsets me when he flames out.  Can he fix it?  Yes, Andre did.  Will he?  I don’t know.  I think his personality is as such that he is a “gentle giant.”  I think he lacks a “mean streak.”  So, if it makes you feel better that I irrationally hate JB, then think it.  I think it’s just as irrational to look only at “stats.”  Maybe Jon will “evolve,” but if he doesn’t, you will figure out later what I already know now!
• Will the real Matt Kemp please step up?
• For whatever it is worth, Cory Wade was outrighted to AAA, which opened up a roster spot.  I can think of no reason the Dodgers would do that now, except for a pending trade…
• Cheryl needs to go.  Now!  Ditto on GA!

There isn’t much difference between a dude and a dud – One Little Letter!

An offseason ago, it was proposed that the Yankees trade Robinson Cano for Matt Kemp.  It made sense for the Yankees:  Cano was under-performing and they needed a CF.  To me, it made no sense for the Dodgers – after all Matt was a “budding superstar”  and was growing into a Gold Glove center fielder, a feared base-stealer and a difference maker.  Through the first month of the season, Matt Kemp was taking the next step (at least offensively) to becoming an Elite Player.

Now, it’s nearly July and Robinson Cano and Matt Kemp both have three letters by their names:  Cano is MVP and Kemp is DFA!

Matt Kemp has went from one of the best center-fielders in baseball to one of the worst, and has went from a feared base-stealer to a sure out! Add in the fact that  he has hit .191 in June and you can see that Matt kemp has went from being anchor on the Dodgers team, to a boat anchor who is bringing the team down.  What is happening to Matt Kemp?  This we know:  He has incredible talent, talent to be a Superstar.  Most Fantasy Baseball guides had him in the Top 3 Outfielders.  So, if he’s not and yet shown on the major league level that he can excel (and he has), then the problem is in his head (unless he has lost his ability to see).  Head problems are hard to fix.  I don’t know Matt well and while I don’t know his parents well either, I can see that he was raised to be respectful, responsible and hard-working.  Matt was not raised to be a prima donna, and I am not saying he is, but I can only go by what I see, and what I see looks awful!  At times (like last night) he flashes leather in CF, but that’s not the usual.

Matt Kemp looks to me like a guy who just got a multi-million dollar contract and is living on his past press clippings. It’s not to last to do a 180 and get back on track, but Matt is going to have to re-dedicate himself to the game of baseball.  Something is missing – maybe he knows.  He best identify it before he becomes Raul Mondesi!

The same applies to one Russell Martin. While he is throwing out baserunners at  a 34% clip (his high), his defense has regressed and his hitting is putrid.  His OB% is decent at .351, but his bat is no longer feared.  Russell Martin is becoming a non-factor.  Look at the team woes right now and it’s easy to see that Martin and Kemp are almost single-handedly responsible for the lack of offense.  Sure, Andre Ethier has been declining, but he has a reason – he needs to nurse his pinkie back to health.   Kemp and Ethier combined for 6 K’s last night!

The Dodgers have a nice 2B combination with DeWitt and Carroll and Casey Blake is Casey Blake at 3B.  Raffy looks primed to have a good year, Manny is picking it up at bat, and the Dodger subs are doing their jobs.  Even Garrett Anderson has a pulse.  James Loney is the teams’ RBI Leader and is becoming more of a vocal leader by showing some fire with the umpires.  Atta Boy, James!  The fact is that the Dodgers cannot win unless Matt Kemp and Russ Martin play up to their talent level.  Dodger fans are calling you out!  Are you Dudes or Duds?

Dodger Notes:

• Charlie Haeger was DFA’ed – someone will probably give him a chance.  I’d be surprised if he goes back to the minors as a Dodger, but you never know.  He sure tanked… with a quickness!  Jon Link will probably get the call until C-Bill comes of the DL next week.
• I have not been impressed with Jerry Sands because of his lack of athleticism, but it’s starting to look like he could be a stone-cold hitter.  I would love to eat my words.
• Kyle Russell – AA Stats:  60 AB/26 K/5 BB – Can you say OVERMATCHED?
• Vicente Padilla was nearly as good as CC last night.  If Padilla and Ely can both pitch like they have the last two games, the back of the rotation will be solid, but I still want Lee or Oswalt!
• Josh Lindblom is excelling out of the pen for Albuquerque Isotopes – he has not allowed a run in his last 5 innings.

I think there comes a time when you have to assess what you have and what you could have if you are willing to roll the dice. Sure, the hitters have been slumping

Do it, Ned! Just Do It!

lately, but that’s only temporary.  This is a very good hitting team, especially when all the parts are in place.  I think the time has come for the Dodgers to pull the trigger, gut the farm and go for broke THIS year.  This is Manny’s last year in LA, Raffy is getting older and so is Casey Blake.  The hitting is fine – Manny is heating up, Matt will get his stroke back and Andre will take up where he left off a few weeks ago.  Offensively, I believe the Dodgers can play with anyone.  Pitching is the issue.  Starting pitching in particular.  Now I happen to believe that Kershaw, Kuroda and Billingsley are among the best trios in the league.  But to get past the NLCS, the Dodgers need more.   They need Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt!

The Dodgers will be loathe to give up any major league players, so they will have to overpay in prospects.  What would it take to get Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt?  Here’s the list and I think it would take every last one:

• Ethan Martin
• Aaron Miller
• Chris Withrow
• Dee Gordon
• Kyle Russell
• Ivan DeJesus, Jr.
• James McDonald
• Scott Elbert

That would effectively “gut” the farm.  I also think the Astros and Mariners would take Padilla and Ely in lieu of a couple of the prospects.

Me?  I would do it.  I’d go for it all.  Clayton Kershaw would be your #3.  Hiroki Kuroda would be the #4 and Chad Billingsley the #5 starter with Lee and Oswalt the 1,2 punch.  I think the Dodgers could win with that team… and I mean WIN IT ALL!

They would pay for it down the road, but it could be sweet this year!

Before you go off on “McCourt won’t spend the money”  you need to realize that Frank knows a Championship would pay off in much greater revenue.  If this deal doesn’t happen, a similar one will.  Watch and learn!

It looked for a while that the Dodgers might have squandered a 3-0 lead through 4 innings in Cincinnati last night, so after a 2-1/2 hour rain delay, the Dodgers took batting practice and

Manny Dancing With Russell

tacked on 9 more runs to spank the Reds 12-0.  That score in itself, doesn’t mean much.  What means the most to me is that Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez (especially Raffy) looked like they were difference-makers again. Raffy went 5-6 and made some outstanding plays in the field, including two back-to-back plays from as deep in the hole as you can get.  He threw out both runners, which is a feat that I am convinced few, if any, other shortstops could have made.  If you didn’t see it, it’s worth a re-play.

There was a lot of good to take from that game:

• Ramirez was 3-4 with a HR and 4 RBI and looked a lot like “Manny” while raising his BA to .298
• James Loney got 4 hits and raised his BA to .304
• Raffy is now at .309
• Matt Kemp went 2-4 to bereak out of his personal malaise (watch out, someone is going to pay, soon)
• Hiroki Kuroda went 5 innings, including 1 inning after the 2-1/2 hour rain delay to get his 6th win and drop his ERA to 3.10.
• Troncoso looked as good as I have ever seen him, hitting 94 MPH and having the bottom fall out of his fastball.
• George Sherrill (he’s not Cheryl today) even looked pretty good and topped out at 90.  I’m not saying he’s “cured,” but it’s a step in the right direction.
• Justin Miller also pitched a scoreless inning and his ERA sits at 3.18.

The Dodgers will allegedly call up a reliever tonight.  It will probably be Link – I think Lindblom needs a few more games as a reliever before being called up.  When Vicente Padilla comes off the DL on Saturday, the pitcher who gets called up tonight, or Miller, or Anderson, or maybe even Blake DeWitt could be gone.

John Ely is simply amazing!  Who knew?  I wonder if his bubble will burst, but here’s the thing – he IS a PITCHER!  Dude flat out knows how to pitch.

On the DL

Matt Kemp is not a Bison.  He’s more like a Puma.  Pooommmm!    Was it me who predicted 40 HR for him (and Walkoff Ethier)?

The Dodgers have now dropped their team ERA to 4.12 (the Padres is rising).

All of the following is from Tony Jackson of ESPN/Los Angeles:

• Vincente Padilla is set to start his rebab this week and has a target date of June 18 for his major league return
• George Cheryl pitched an inning at Inland Empire last night and promptly gave up three hits.  At least he has kept his form.  Honeycutt wants him to pitch at least one game in AAA before coming back.
• And this:

McDonald suffers setback

James McDonald’s path back to the major leagues has taken another unexpected turn.

The lanky right-hander, who was 4-1 with a 5.05 ERA in nine starts for Albuquerque, suffered a serious right-hamstring pull while running the bases last Wednesday night against Reno. McDonald was caught in a moment of indecision as to whether to slide or go into second base standing as he attempted to break up a double play.

McDonald is presently on the seven-day DL and is at the Dodgers’ spring-training facility in Glendale, Ariz., where he is throwing off flat ground. But he isn’t expected to return to pitching competitively anytime soon.

“It’s a significant strain,” Dodgers trainer Stan Conte said. “It’s not a small one. We call it a Grade 2 out of a possible three. We’ll just have to see how long it takes. We don’t believe it’s a matter of days. It’s longer than that.”

McDonald is 5-5 with a 3.65 ERA in four starts and 45 relief appearances for the Dodgers over the past two seasons, and he pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings over two appearances in the postseason two years ago. He came to spring training this year as a slight favorite amid a large field of competitors to win the fifth spot in the starting rotation, but he had a poor showing in the Cactus League and was optioned on March 20.

• Was it Larry Bowa who suggested that Matt Kemp be traded?  Was it because he sometimes runs through Bowa’s stop signs, like yesterday?  Casey Blake ran through Bowa’sStop Sign yesterday as well. Take aways those two runs which Bowa tried to strand at 3B and the Dodgers may have lost.  The question is:  Is Bowa losing it at 3B?
• Matt Kemp looked like superman with his game-saving diving catch in CF.  The X-Man made a leaping catch in RF to also save the day.
• Here’s ALL you need to know to decide whether to keep Anderson or Paul –  Which player makes the Dodgers a better team?  That’s all that needs to be considered. Paul is better defensively, has a better arm, has speed that can serve the Dodgers well as a pinch runner, and has shown he can hit major league pitching.  Paul has nothing more to learn at AAA  and the Dodgers need their best players on the big league roster.  The Dodgers need 5 outfielders because of Manny being a liability in LF and requiring more rest and defensive replacements.  The Dodgers will do a disservice to their fans, players and Paul by demoting him.  That’s the long and short of it.
• Dontrelle Willis wants to play for a West Coast team – he worth a “look see.”  He’s only 28 – maybe some one can resurrect his career.  He’ll only cost the minimum…
• Roy Halladay – Perfect!  What can you say?  He’s the best in baseball!
• Here’s what the following Dodger players will do if they keep up their current pace:

Additionally, Ely is on pace to be 10-6, Billingsley 19-6 and Kershaw and Kuroda are projected at 16-10.  Of course, it doesn’t mean that will happen, but you never know…

• Scott Elbert was optioned and Travis Schlichting was recalled from AAA – pay no attention to his stats.  The PCL skews everything.
• Since Charlie Haegar has an injured toe, Carlos Monasterios is getting another start.  This is good!
• If you think the reason the Dodgers didn’t offer arbitration to Hudson and Wolf was so they wouldn’t have to pay draft picks, you are clinically insane.

The Knucklehead:  Getting shot in the leg is enough to cause you to get branded as a knucklehead, but there’s a lot more to it than that.  Vicente Padilla arguably has some one thebest stuff you will ever see, but it’s his “knuckle-headedness”  which has kept him from achieving his potential.  Obviously, something happened in Texas which caused many of his teammates to turn on him and the Rangers to eat his contract.  In spring training this year, he was regarded as a “knucklehead” in several establishments which service alcoholic beverages and he was regarded as a “knucklehead” by people who leased him his expensive sports car and his neighbors around the condo he leased.  Thus, it comes as no surprise that Padilla is involved in some form of “incident” in a hotel room in the 3-4 AM hours.  Once a knucklehead, always a knucklehead.  I thought that since he was a 1-year deal, he might settled down and pitch like he is capable, and his stuff is #1 stuff, but his head is #13.  A True Knucklehead he is!

Linchpins: Matt Kemp, Manny Ramirez, Russell Martin and James Loney are all important to the Dodgers offense, but the Dodgers “Offensive Linchpins” are, without a doubt, Rafael Furcal and Andre Either.   After going 3-4, Raffy looks to be back and Andre is due back at any moment.  The Dodgers are an entirely different team when they are in the lineup.  Raffy sets the tone, but if you have to pick one true “linchpin” it is “Walkoff” Ethier.  I am considering changing his name from “Walkoff” to “Game-Over.”

Leftys:  It’s always something with left-handers.  Case-in-point – George Sherrill, who seems to be very good or very, very bad and lately it has been the later.  Hong-chih Kuo has outstanding “Closer” type stuff, but his arm hangs by a thread and each pitch could be his last.  An MRI could tell a lot, but I am sure that neithe he nor the Dodgers wants to know…  And then we have Mr. Scott Elbert, whose curve-ball and slider should play out much better than in the PCL, but who is wilder than a March Hare.  What is it with these left-handers anyway?  They are all wacky, except for Mr. Clayton Kershaw – he’s OK in my book, and after all, he is our Ace.  The Dodgers last two attempts to trade for an ace were exercises in futility (Brown and Schmidt).  I think the Dodgers have to get an Ace the old-fashioned way – you grow one!

I Told You Sos: In the off-season before this season, I said that I was in favor of not offering Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf arbitration.  Most of you have disagreed with me, but you will change your minds soon enough.  Watch and learn.  You surely have learned that what I said in the off-season before the start of the 2009 season is true.  I said that I was not in favor of signing Manny Ramirez, but if I signed him it would only be for one year.  I was told by most of you that Manny would require a three to five year deal and was called all kinds of names for saying I wouldn’t sign him.  When the Dodgers signed him for two year against no other bidders, I was somewhat relieved, but felt that $45 mil for an aging superstar was too much and too long… and it was!  I root for Manny because he is a Dodger, but I fear that we are seeing the best of this aging-former-steroid-using-superstar-who-can’t-recover-as quickly-as-he-needs to.  I fear that there is little market for him and if the Dodgers can trade him, it will be at the expense of having to eat half his salary or more – they might as well keep him for that.  The only team I can see wanting or affording him is the Yankees and that would be “iffy.”  You got what you wanted with Manny and now you are stuck with him.  I hate to say I told you so, but “I told you so.”

Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke and Roy Oswalt will all be on the market this year.  Randy Wolf makes more than Cliff Lee.  Who would you rather have?  The Dodgers can now be players for those pitchers because they don’t have the salaries of Wolf or Hudson… or both.  They would really be sitting pretty if they didn’t have Ramirez!

2012:

Lineup:

1. Gordon  SS
2. DeWitt 2B
3. Ethier  -  LF
4. Pujols  - 1B
5. Kemp  CF
6. Beltre  3B
7. Sands  RF
8. Ellis  C

Subs:

• May
• Hu
• Paul
• Hoffman
• DeJesus

Rotation:

1. Kershaw
2. Lee
3. Martin
4. Ely
5. Haegar

Bullpen:

• Wade
• McDonald
• Guerra
• Link
• Adkins
• Leach
• Lindblom – Closer

Parting Shots:

• The Dodgers lack of hitting doesn’t concern me, right now – they will hit.
• Garrett Anderson is stealing space from a worthy ballplayer.  He is soooooooooooooo done – stick a fork in him!
• The Dodgers need to convert Lindblom back to a Closer
• James McDonald is back on the road to LA
• Xavier Paul will surprise you – watch and see.
• Rumor has it that Elbert will go back down today to make room for Ethier, and that Paul will go back to make make room for Haegar on Tuesday.  A better move would be to keep Paul and DFA Anderson.  Answer this question:  Are the Dodgers better with XP or GA?  End of discussion…

• The beat goes on…
• It seems like it’s a different player stepping up every day.  Lat night it was Ely, Paul, Kemp, Blake and Loney.  Kemp and Blake both had 3 hits for the “white-hot” Dodgers.
• It looks to me that Jon Ely is the “real-deal”  - he struggled last night, but had a quality start and got the win.
• Joe Torre was able to get Scott Proctor’s and Cory Wade’s ams to fall off – now he’s working on Troncoso’s…
• Garrett Anderson – .138 – Need I say more?
• Joe Torre has indicated that it’s possible Blake DeWitt (not Nick Green) will go down when Raffy returns, because DeWitt has options left and Green doesn’t.  Two Words:  ”Felony Stupid!”
• Andre Ethier could be back in two weeks…
• Where are the Billingsley bashers now?
• Bill Shaikin of the LA Times discusses a Roy Oswalt deal.  The Dodgers do have long-time Oswalt friend Brad Ausmus…
• One good thing about the current Dodgers winning streak:  Bill Plaschke and TJ Slimers have nothing to say!

Many of you had the Dodgers dead and buried a couple of weeks ago (no, I am not going to just let it go – you need to learn a lesson) and now they are red-hot-on-fire-the-hottest-

Excellent Defense

team-in-baseball! Like it or not, here is what you are seeing:

• You are seeing the maturation of some young pitchers like Kershaw, Billingsley, Ely, Kuo, Belisario and Broxton;
• You are seeing the maturation of  some young hitters like Loney, Kemp, Martin, DeWitt and Walkoff Ethier;
• You are seeing Ned’s signing of Jamey Carroll pay off in spades (Garrett Anderson still sucks);
• You are seeing a team win seven in as row, 9 out of the last 10 games and 12 out of the last 15 games;
• You are seeing this team grow their own ace and number two in Kershaw and C-Bill;
• You are seeing a TEAM unite for a common goal; and
• You just might see history in the making if the Dodgers make the playoffs for the third straight year.

I am accused of seeing the baseball world through “BLUE” glasses and while I bleed Dodger Blue, I also have my eyes wide-open.  This Dodger team has warts.  It lacks a true ace (as yet) and it is young.  Some of our subs are old and some call them “geezers” but did you see the ages of the “Geezers” who won the last World Series?  Look it up!

However, I knew that this team would be “hungry” and want to win.  You have a few players who have experience and are of an age that they need to win NOW.  Players like Blake, Manny, Raffy, Belliard, Johnson and others.  Then you have the young bucks, like Kemp, Loney, Martin, Ethier, DeWitt, Broxton, Kershaw, Billingsley, Ely, Kuo, Belisario, Ellis and others who are trying to make a name (and fortune) for themselves.

Like it our not, Ned has put together a pretty effective team and I would not be surprised if Vicente Padilla wins 12 games!  Write that down.  He is motivated!  Charlie Haegar may still surprise us.

Lindblom, McDonald, Paul, Hoffman, May, Hu and others are at-the-ready.

You can continue to moan and bitch about the McCourt fisaco, or you can focus on the team and this team is REALLY GOOD… just like I told you two months ago!

You can believe what the fish hacks say (“Joe is tired of the McCourt penny-pinching and wants out”, “the Dodgers won’t spend any money”) or you can face reality.  Yes, you will get a lot of info from the “fish hacks”  but their conclusions are often erroneous.  Think what you want about Joe Torre, but do you really think he’s going to tell his friends and fish hacks anything confidential?

Use your brains, people!  Critics are everywhere, and critics are just people who criticize people about things they can’t do themselves!  They are “small” individuals.

The Dodgers haven’t swept the Padres in San Diego, since George Washington was in the White House!

Celebrate!

While still leading all of major league baseball in hitting at .277, the Los Angeles Dodgers are quietly lowering their team ERA and raising their fielding percentage.  They have climbed from 15th to 12th in fielding and have shaved almost a run off their team ERA.  It now sits at 4.63…  and dropping.   The Dodgers have now won 5 in a row and 6 out of their last 7 games, causing the McCourt bashers to disappear because their BS doesn’t play well when the Dodgers are winning.   A lot can happen in baseball, and while I can’t predict that the Dodgers will win it all, I still say they are capable.  The Dodgers have as good a chance as any and a better chance than most teams to make it to the Wold Series.

Many of you were piling on early in the season, when practically the entire pitching staff was “blowing up” and the team fielding was deplorable.  You said stuff like:

• “This team is going nowhere.”
• “The Dodgers will be sellers.”  BY THE WAY, IF YOU BELIEVE THAT ONE YOU ARE A FOOL!
• “We’ll never win with McCourt and Ned.”
• “I told you this team was not built to win.”
• “McCourt is spending all the money on Jamie and himself, so he can’t afford to field a good team.”

I can’t believe some of the silly (ie., stupid) things that are said by some of you.  Maybe what I said was stupid too when I wrote that the Dodgers should fire Torre and Honeycutt, but I said it because I KNEW that this team was capable of winning it all and surmised that it had to be the manager and coaches.   Now that they have turned the corner, I will lay off, but some of you need to get a grip.  THIS IS A VERY GOOD TEAM. If you think the Padres will continue to have a 2.60 team ERA, you are silly.  If you don’t think the Dodgers will drop their team ERA to below 4.00 very soon, you are even sillier.  The NL West has some good teams, but the Dodgers are still as good, probably better than any of them.

I am beginning to think that some of you love to bash McCourt more than root for the Dodgers, because you disappear when the Dodgers win.  For the last time, Frank McCourt is irrelevant to me.  I don’t like him.  I don’t hate him.  While I wouldn’t live my life the way he does, that’s on him.   The Dodgers have been to the playoffs for two straight seasons and if they make it this year it will be an accomplishment that has never been achieved in the history of the franchise.  So, are you on the Bandwagon or do you just enjoy bitching?   Do you enjoy winning or whining?   Climb aboard!

RANTS & RAVES

• Still think Kemp can’t hit?   All players go through slumps, but it looks like Matt’s game is coming back.  He’s hitting, walking, stealing bases and playing good defense.
• Andre Ethier is playing as good as anyone I have ever seen over the past month.
• Russ Martin has a new-found aggressiveness about him at the bat and a quiet confidence when throwing.
• Ramon Ortiz tantalizes you by making some really outstanding pitches, but EVERY at-bat, he groves one right into the hitters’ “wheelhouse” – I think that’s the book on him:  Wait and he’ll give you a great pitch to hit EVERY at-bat. He needs to disappear as soon as possible.
• I hold my breath every time Hong-chih Kuo takes the mound – each pitch can be his last.
• James Loney is quietly playing at a very high level.
• The Dodger Keystone Combo during this current winning streak has been solid and efficient.  That has not been a problem area for the Dodgers.

• I think James McDonald and Josh Lindblom will both play a big role with the 2010 Dodgers.
• If Hiroki Kuroda can continue to hit 95 MPH on his fastball and mix up his pitches like he has, he will be an All-Star this year.
• The Kiddie Corps of Chad and Clayton are starting to hit their stride.  I’m liking the Dodgers top 3 starters.  You can buy and ace or grow an ace.  I prefer the later.
• With Padilla likely out until June, John Ely and Carlos Monasterios will each get another start or four.
• Charlie Haeger can’t even pitch in a 9-1 blowout?  That doesn’t bode well for his future.  He is in Joe’s doghouse.  Charlie Haeger and Been Sheets have similar ERA’s.  I guess I’d rather be Ned Colletti than Billy Beane on that one.
• George Sherrill needs another pitching coach.  He scares me, but he’s better than he shows.
• What’s not to like about Casey Blake? He gets big hits, makes good plays and is a good teammate.  He’s hitting .263 with 3 HR, 6 Doubles and 15 RBI, which is 3rd on the team.  He’s solid, steady and will benefit if he only has to start 125-130 games, but he can pinch hit in the rest.  Casey Blake can play on my team any time.
• Have the Dodgers fired Joe Torre yet?
• When do Sands and Russell move up?  With Lambo in Limbo, Russell should go to AA and Sands to IE.
• Somebody told me I was crazy last season when I suggested that Andre Ethier could hit 40 HR.  I may be crazy, but he CAN hit 40 HR, like THIS year! No more Mr. Softee.
• Speaking of Soft, Andy LaRoche looks “soft” to me.  It looks like I was wrong in his evaluation.
• Matt Kemp is a streaky hitter.  He’ll hit like crazy for 4 or 5 games and then look horrible the next 4 or 5 games.  Sooner or later, the bad times will be less and less.  I guess the same can be said about Ethier.
• Who likes Garrett Anderson over Xavier Paul? No me!  Paul has better speed, is better defensively, has a cannon on his shoulder compared to Anderson’s popgun and is hitting better than Anderson.  That kind of performance needs to be rewarded.  Paul has to stay on the team when Manny is activated.   Simple as that.  While Paul is not a great CF, he can play there as well, and Anderson can’t.
• Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com has a nice article about the reformed Pedro Guerrero.
• Don’t get too excited – it was only the Pirates…
• It looks like Hu will be called up on Tuesday and Raffy will go on the DL.

Maybe you have wondered why the Dodgers didn’t spend much money over the past off-season.  Maybe?  You have absolutely wondered that if you are a Dodger fan.  After all, the owners were getting a divorce and arguing over money and control, so that’s it – McCourt is bad and he won’t spend any money. Many fans have this position.  I am here to tell you right now that conventional wisdom is usually wrong.  However, in this case, it’s not conventional wisdom.  It’s conventional “piling on”!

You all know that a A player with six or more years of major-league service (on the team’s 40-man roster) who is not under contract for the following season is eligible to file for free agency.  Teams can receive compensation for the player with a draft pick in the following year’s draft in June. In order to receive compensation, the team must offer the player salary arbitration.

It is then up to the player to either accept arbitration or sign with another team. The team must offer salary arbitration to the player by early December or the team will not be allowed to negotiate with or sign the player until the following May 1.   After arbitration is offered, the player has two weeks to accept or refuse salary arbitration. If it is refused, the player can only negotiate with the club until January 7th after which no more negotiation can take place until May 1st.

Top free agents are classified as Type A (the top 20 percent at their position as determined by the Elias Sports Bureau), Type B (between 21 and 40 percent at his position). If a Type A free agent who had been offered arbitration signs with another team, the team receives two first-round draft picks the following June – either a first- or second-round pick of the new team (depending on a team’s record the previous season) and a “sandwich” pick between the first and second rounds. Type B free agents earn just a “sandwich” pick.

If there are 14 or fewer Type A or Type B free agents available, no team can sign more than one type A or B player. If there are between 15-38, no team can sign more than two. If there are between 39 and 62, there’s a limit of three. However, teams can sign as many Type A or B free agents as they’ve lost, regardless of the limits above.

Now, think about this for a minute.  If a Type A player like Wolf and Hudson refuses free agency, then the team who loses them get compensation.  On the other hand, if they accept arbitration, it is binding.  Do you actually think it would be fair that a team could “opt out” if the player got more than they wanted to pay?   It is beyond foolish to think that has any root in reality.  You should know better than that.  A deal is a deal!  There is no rescinding it !  If you offer arbitration, it is binding!  Duh!

If the Dodgers had offered arbitration to Randy Wolf and  Orlando Hudson, then they would be bound to have accepted the results, contrary to what some people on this board may think.  They would have had to pay that player their number or the players number.  No recourse!

Now that we all understand what could have happened if the Dodgers offered arbitration to Wolf and Hudson, let’s consider the underlying reasons why the Dodgers did not offer either of them arbitration.  Wolf and Hudson were at the “right place at the right time” to both have made a fortune at arbitration.  Randy Wolf was a good pitcher for the Dodgers in 2009, but he has never been all that.  However, after stringing together some solid seasons, he qualified as a Type A Free Agent and was one of the top free agent pitchers in a very thin class of pitchers.  The same can be said of Orlando Hudson.  While he was never a perennial All-Star, he did win some Gold Gloves and made two All-Star appearances.  O-Dog also qualified as a Type A Free Agent and was one of the Top 2B in baseball… but he wasn’t “all that” either.  Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson were good players, but if the Dodgers had offered them arbitration, there is a chance they would have accepted.  What that chance was depends upon who you ask.  It might have been 10% or it might have been 60% – no one knows, but here is what we do know:

If the Dodgers had offered arbitration to them and they had accepted, in all likelihood, here is what they might have asked:  Wolf would have gotten $10-13 mil and Hudson would have gotten $8-11 mil. You can say that the Dodger’s Kim Ng wouldn’t lose, but it all depends upon what is asked and offered as well.  I think the minimum the Dodger would have had to pay them both would have been $18 mil and the maximum may have been $24 million.  To put that in perspective, the Dodgers could have signed CC Sabathia for that, and that’s what Ryan Howard just signed his new deal for.

The Dodgers have made the mistake in the past of signing who was available, not who was really needed.  Juan Pierre, Jason Schmidt, Andrew Jones, even Jeff Kent were signings which maybe didn’t make sense.  You don’t just look at who is available – you have to look at what you need.  If Ned and Frank had not signed Schmidt, Jones and Pierre, you might just be looking  a staff with CC Sabathia as ACE.  What would make the Dodgers better – Hudson and Wolf or Sabathia or Hudson and Wolf or Ryan Howard (then you could trade Loney for pitching)?  Forget these five-and-dime guys.

But, the Dodgers are blasted for not getting an ace.  Wait a minute –  they tried to get Cliff Lee – the Indians just liked the Phillies offer better.  There was no chance Doc Halladay was coming to the Left Coast.  Not in a million years!    That left Lacky – no thanks.  Good things come to those who wait.  The Dodgers are waiting.  They didn’t sign Wolf or Hudson because they know that something better is out there.  It may be Cliff Lee next winter, or maybe by the All-Star Break.  You don’t know.  Zach Greinke could suddenly become available, if KC really stinks and wants a multitude of prospects to rebuild (again).

Don’t expect the Dodgers to tell you this.  They can’t – it’s not something you share with your competitors, but when Ned says it’s business as usual, it is – in the sense that this is now the plan. The Dodgers won’t pay $15 – $18 mil for a player like Lackey, Schmidt, Jones, but they will pony up $20+ mil for a Cliff Lee or  $25 mil for a Zach Greinke.  You have to have both the Superstars and the Role Players.  The Phillies are built that way with Utley, Howard, Rollins, Halladay and all the rest.  I think they make a mistake in signing Raul Ibanez, because that might prevent them from re-signing Jason Werth.  Ibanez was important to them last year, but this year he stinks, and they have to pay him one more year.

In three years, the Dodgers could have contract obligations of $65 million a year to three players – Kemp, Ethier and Kershaw.  Frank McCourt knows that to build the empire he wants – he has to put a winner on the field.  He can’t do it with players like nickel-and-dime  players like Hudson and Wolf.  He needs about 4 or 5 superstars, a strong farm system and some role players to plug in.  Many have interpreted the fact that the Dodgers would not offer arbitration to Wolf and Hudson as Cheapness.  Actually, it’s the opposite – the Dodgers are now in a position to trade for a big arm THIS YEAR.  I believe the Dodgers could have a payroll closer to $120 mil by the end of the season.

Some people choose to believe fiction (such as it is possible to refuse to pay the arbitration settlement, or that Bud Selig told the Dodgers not to go to arbitration).  HOGWASH!   Some people choose to believe that McCourt will not spend the money necessary to win.  HOGWASH!  What the Dodgers did last off-season was about “positioning.”  The Dodgers are trying to get positioned to get some impact players, not the five and dime variety like Wolf and Hudson.  The Dodgers won’t spend the money?  HOGWASH!  The Dodgers are just going to be positioned to spend the money where it can make a difference.  The Dodgers are still paying for their (Ned’s) mistakes to Pierre, Schmidt and Jones, but they did get Link and Ely for Pierre (who has been a disappointment for the ChiSox).  Both of those player have promise.

The “mistakes” gradually come off the books over the next year or two.  On the horizon are Dee Gordon, Jerry Sands, and a bunch of pitchers who throw 95+ MPH.

The Dodgers have learned (the hard way) that you don’t sign the “five-and-dime” free agents – you have to go after the big boys!  Watch and see what happens.  In a few months, the people who ridiculed Frank McCourt will be wearing brown grocery bags over their heads with “eye slits.”

All I am saying is “Give the Dodgers a Chance!”

Oh….  Fire Joe Torre!  His horse finished 16th out of 20 in the derby.  Say no more!

Rants & Raves:

• I thought Andrew Lambo had put his character issues behind him.  I guess I was wrong.  I am officially off the LamboWagon!
• Ramon Ortiz – 3 IP/ 2 Hits/ 5 K’s to get the win.  He can stay!
• Carlos Monasterios looked like  24 year-old making his first major league start, but I saw promise.  He could just stick in the rotation.
• Charlie Haeger’s butt is glued to the pine.
• Andre Ethier is a beast!

• Charlie Haeger has a 6.46 ERA – It is what it is, and thus far, he is not the Dodger’s Savior.  It was Joe Torre who said “you don’t catch a knuckleball, you defend against it.“
• The Dodgers have 18 errors.  The manager and coaches have to take a large portion of the blame for this.
• Sit tight.  It’s not as bad as you think.  You should see what you were posting the last two years…
• I could see Matt Kemp as a RF in the near future with Ethier moving to LF.  Ethier has a good arm, but is a below average RF.  He would be better in LF.  Who plays CF?  Not Paul.  Robinson is a CF, but probably won’t be ready next year.  The Dodgers could sign one…  or convert Gordon to CF (I think outside of the box).  Put Gordon in CF and you could have the RF and LF sit down – he’d cover it all.
• As good as Manny was hitting, I think the Dodgers will be fine with him sitting down for 15 days.  Growth is painful, but necessary.
• The National Announcers said that “Ronnie Belliard was singing to his fat in the locker room before the game.”   Well, that explains a lot!
• It’s about time Clayton Kershaw stepped up and pitched 8 or 9 innings.  Tomorrow is his hour.
• On April 20, 2008, I wrote:

Chad Billingsley will never be a TOP Starter – he throws too many pitches and has never pitched deep into games. I see the stats. You are going to try and say “well, look what he does when….” I am basing this on what I see – now and in the past 2 seasons. Chad Billingsley can run it up to 98, 99 MPH when he has to pitch in short bursts. He was 95 consistently yesterday. He’s a PERFECT CLOSER! Trade Saito and move C-Bill to the pen.

How different would things be if that had happened?