Just a laundry list of a few things I expect to see this year:

• A healthy Rafael Furcal who is 100% physically and (most importantly) mentally (it takes a while to recover mentally from a surgery) regains his form and is again one of the elite short stops in baseball.  This alone makes a huge difference for the team.
• Blake DeWitt wins the 2B job and hits 18 HR’s silencing his critics, while playing a good 2B.  (Make No Mistake – the Dodgers want DeWitt to be the 2B).
• Reed Johnson and Jamey Carroll (who have been much maligned) become two important components of the team (THESE GUYS ARE BALLPLAYERS) and contribute mightily.
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw become Co-Aces.  Bills is in the best shape I’ve seen him.
• James Loney will hit for more power, as will Russ Martin – I can’t tell you what they will do, but I expect better results.
• George Sherrill will not do well this year – I would love to see the Dodgers trade him.  I can see an ERA of over 4.00.   Pull the trigger, Ned!  Just do it!
• There WILL BE a significant trade this Spring involving the Dodgers.
• Brian Giles will retire by next weekend.
• Ronnie Belliard will be insignificant and ultimately be released.
• Who will step up – Hu?
• Opening Day Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Kemp  CF
3. Ethier  RF
4. Ramirez  LF
5. Loney 1B
6. Blake  3B
7. DeWitt 2B
8. Martin  C
9. Kershaw  P

Televised Game Today at 12:05 PDT or 3:05 EDT

Torre, Ramirez and Loney headline team of Dodger players on international goodwill trip

PHOENIX – The Los Angeles Dodgers today announced the expected roster for the upcoming three-game series in Taiwan. Additional players may be added or changed prior to the March 10 departure.

The Dodgers will bring 33 players, including 17 with Major League experience, in their first team trip to Taiwan since the 1993 Friendship Series. Manager Joe Torre, left fielder Manny Ramirez and first baseman James Loney will be joined by Taiwan natives Hong-Chih Kuo and Chin-lung Hu, Japan native Robert Boothe and South Korea native Hyang-Nam Choi.

Six players on the roster also made the Dodgers’ historic trip to Beijing, China in 2008 for the first-ever games in that country. They are Kuo, Hu, John Lindsey, Lucas May, Xavier Paul and Eric Stults as well as Torre and coaches Lorenzo Bundy and John Shoemaker.

Lindsey registered the first hit, a single to left field, during the two-game series against the Padres in China.

A complete roster is below, subject to change.

Pitchers (15): RHP Mario Alvarez, LHP Alberto Bastardo, RHP Robert Boothe, RHP Jesus Castillo, RHP Hyang-Nam Choi, RHP John Ely, RHP Francisco Felix, RHP Charlie Haeger, RHP Kenley Jansen, LHP Hong-Chih Kuo, RHP Josh Lindblom, RHP Jon Link, LHP Juan Perez, LHP Eric Stults and RHP Josh Towers.

Catchers (4): J.D. Closser, Gabriel Gutierrez, Lucas May, Jesse Mier

Infielders (8): Ronnie Belliard, Angel Berroa, Jamey Carroll, Chin-lung Hu, John Lindsey, James Loney, Russ Mitchell and Ramon Nivar

Outfielders (6): Brian Barton, Xavier Paul, Manny Ramirez, Prentice Redman, Michael Restovich, Trayvon Robinson

Coaches: Manager Joe Torre, first base coach John Shoemaker, third base coach Lorenzo Bundy, pitching coach Jim Slaton, hitting coach/bench coach Tim Wallach and bullpen catcher Mike Borzello.

… nor am I a hater.  I see the good he has done as the owner of the Dodgers.  I see the mistakes he has made as well.  However, he seems to have learned each time he makes a mistake.   Overall, the Dodgers are in much better shape than when he took over.  His lifestyle seems excessive – in my business, I work with the rich and famous and don’t really care about all their “stuff.”  My “stuff” is fine.  If I had their money, I wouldn’t live the way they live… but that’s just me.  If they want to live excessively (my opinion) that’s their gig. 

However, I am sick of this Dodger Divorce.  It’s a soap opera and I will no longer talk about it until the case is decided.  I’ll take it a step further – I’ll delete any posts or comments on this issue.  I don’t want to hear about it.  It’s something I don’t care about.  I don’t care about “what if.”  I care about “what is.”  The Dodgers IS.

That’s what I want to focus on:  The Dodgers.  The baseball part of the business.  The players.  The coaches.  The minor leagues.  That’s all.  If I can’t do that, I’ll shut this blog down.

This is a Dodger blog – not a McCourt blog.  I don’t want it.  I won’t have it and I’m done with it.  “Frank, I don’t live for you, and hopefully you get that.”

This blog is about Matt Kemp, Jon Broxton, Eric Gagne, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Clayton Kershaw, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin and all the rest of the boys.

I am not against Frank McCourt… nor am I for him.

Whatever happens, happens – the Dodgers will thrive, or survive under Frank McCourt.

This is a Dodgers Zone!

Nothing else!

Lawrence Delevingne, a writer at  The Business Insider, sent me this link to his article The Nastiest Billionaire Divorce Ever: Jamie And Frank McCourt.  It deals with the facts and not the rampant speculation that some of you state as facts.  It’s a worthwhile read, if you want to know all the players in this process.

Dodger Stuff:

• Flash!  No Manny next year.  Who knew?  From Dylan Hernandez at THE LA TIMES  Manny is very adept at stating the obvious.
• Tony Jackson of ESPN/LosAngeles weighes in with more about Manny being Manny
• Andrew Lambo profiled

My 2 Cents:

• Jamie Carroll will be a utilityman this year – DeWitt or DeBelli will start.
• It’s possible that the Dodgers may carry only 4 outfielders as Carroll and Blake can both play OF.
• Most of the players on the 40-man roster are in camp.  That’s a good sign.

It turns out that Ronnie Belisario and I have a lot in common – No I don’t have a DUI, but we both have Visa problems that prevented us from reporting yesterday.  He hasn’t been able to obtain his, and I have to work to pay mine off!  So there you go.  Joe Torre isn’t mad at me , but he is mad at Ronnie! 

Spring is that time of year when the “little boy” in us all dreams big dreams: 

• Manny will have an MVP season
• Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier will combine to hit 80 HR and drive in 240
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw will be 1,2 or 2,1 in CY Young voting
• Russell Martin and Rafael Furcal will win Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves
• Eric Gagne will regain his form to become “Game Over” Gagne
• From James McDonald, Eric Stults and Charlie Haeger will emerge a #5 starter who goes 200 innings
• BelliCarroWitt will combine to hit over .300 at 2B
• Casey Blake didn’t have his career year last year – he will have it in 2010 – with a beard, no less

Now, most of those dreams will not happen, but some will and it’s going to be fun to see which ones play out.

Spring Notes:

• The Dodgers and Torre are working on an extension of one more year.
• Russell Martin allegedly looks like a fullback and has muscled up this year.  The last two years, he worked on flexibility and that simply didn’t work.  He’s allegedly about 20+ pounds heavier.
• To those of you who expect Casey Blake to have a bad year at 37, just look back at Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt and Pete Rose at 37.  If a guy takes care of himself, there no reason he can’t be at his peak then and I think that Casey Blake, while not in the category of the three above-mentioned 3B, is a candidate to do as good, probably better than last year.
• Rumor has it that James Loney may have “bulked up” over the winter.  That would make some of those fly balls, “Big Flies.”

Must Reading:

• Tony Jackson on Eric Gagne
• Dylan Hernandez on Chad Billingsley
• TJ Simers with a “Feel Good” Article on “Game Over”

My sources tell me that Manny Ramirez checked into Camelback Ranch one day BEFORE the pitchers and catchers were to report. 

For whatever you think about Manny Ramirez, he is a hard worker and his early arrival (way early) bodes well for the Dodgers upcoming season. 

Without saying a word, he is making a statement: “I’m Serious About Winning This Year!”

He's Here!

Pitchers and Catchers report on February 2o, 2010 and the first workout is February 21, 2010, so I am going to take a few days off.  I’ll be back on the 20th or 21st. 

I’ll leave you with a few things to cuss and discuss:

• Is it possible that the Combination of Reed Johnson and Brian Giles will be even better than Juan Pierre last year?  Think about that one really hard.
• Why can’t a guy who hit over .300 for the first two months of 2008 and is in his 6th professional season make the transition to everyday 2B?  Think about this:  9 trips!  That has to have an effect, but also serves to help you grow up real quick.  Is it possible we will see the 2008 April and May Blake DeWitt all year?
• Jamey Carroll can play every infield position and every outfield position (he hasn’t played SS for a couple of years, but he can in an emergency) and hits nearly .350 as a pinch hiiter.  Do you think he might have some value? 
• Could this be THE year Kuroda is injury-free (remember, it’s not his arm that has been the problem)?
• Does anyone in their right mind think that sometime  between September 2008 and August 2009, Manny Ramirez just “lost it?’   OR, is it possible you could see him be a beast in the least year of his contract?
• What are the chances in July or August that a team who (1) loses a closer to injury, or (2)  has a closer who is not getting the job done, elects to trade for Ronnie Belisario and/or George Sherrill?
• The Dodgers will have a shuttle to and from Albaquacky (I can’t spell Albuquerque) all year -especially for the pitching staff.  At any given time, we could have Troncoso,  Wade, Schlichting, Leach, Lindblom, Miller and Felix there at any given minute.  Expect to see a lot of movement to and from there.
• DARKHORSE:  Ivan DeJesus, Jr. – Could he “sieze the day at 2B?s  Brian Barton (who?) – You never know!!!
• Charles Haeger is out of options and so is Eric Stults.  If, for no other reason than that, they will be given a shot at being the #5.   Because of that, I think Scott Elbert starts the year at AAA.  James McDonald might end up back in AAA so that he can start as well, but I think he’ll play out better as a reliever.  We’ll see.
• Could it be that the Dodgers won’t have a  true SS as a backup this year?  Carroll could well be the emergency SS and Hu and Green would only be a cab ride away. 
• There’s a real chance Amezaga won’t play this year.
• I think the Dodgers will go with 11 pitchers in April.
• Belliard is not a lock to make the team!

This could be your Opening Day Lineup & Roster:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Ethier  RF
5. Manny  LF
6. Loney  1B
7. Blake  3B
8. DeWitt  2B
9. Billingsley  P

Reserves:

1. Carroll
2. Belliard or Doug M ( I can’t spell Mientkiewicz)
3. Giles
4. Johnson
5. Ausmus

Pitchers:

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Haeger
6. Stults
7. Kuo
8. Sherrill
9. Belisario
10. Troncoso
11. Broxton

I’ll be in Carmelback from March 20-27, 2010.  See you there.

Carry on!

It pains me a great deal when fans berate players - ”He’s a bum.”  “He’s worthless.”  “He can’t play.”  

What do we know?  As it turns out, not much.   I will say that anyone who plays at the major league level is so far advanced over anyone else that it’s like comparing my writing ability to Jon Weismans’.  The worst guy in the majors is so much better than any of us ever were.  Think about that for a minute.

When a hitter is in a slump or pitcher just can’t find the strike zone, we fans only look at the results, but fail to consider the underlying circumstances (if they can even be known).  For example, Eric Stults lost his mother to cancer.  In most cases, this is not an “overnight” thing, but something that can consume several years.  By all accounts, Eric was close to his mother, so when he knew she was sick (and maybe no one else knew) how did that affect his ability to pitch?  “He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

What were the dynamics surrounding Manny Ramirez when he was suspended and after his suspension?   He’s a  proud person who was humiliated.  I believe that his problems last year were more “emotional” than physical.   I don’t condone what he did (the steroids), but part of me feels sorry for him because he’s never had to deal with anything like this, and as an elite athlete, he’s ill-equipped to handle it.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

James McDonald seems to get that “deer-in-the-headlights” look when he suddenly walks batters with two outs.  He’s young, inexperienced, and who knows what is going on in his life?  Not me.  Not most reporters!  But, boy-oh-boy, he can pitch when he throws strikes!  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

What about Chad Billingsley?  He’s newly married (I won’t even go there) and he had a broken leg and he’s very young. I mean, there are so many possible distractions and issues in his life that I could write a book about it.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

Rafael Furcal had back surgery before last season and was never the same in 2009.  He was friends with Andruw Jones (who had to leave due to illness – the Dodgers were sick of him)and who knows what else was happening in his life, in addition to rehabbing his back.  It takes time to come back all the way from that – even when you think you are OK, you aren’t… mentally!  In addition, Raffy has his best years in “even years” – look it up – that bodes well for 2010.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

When I think about what goes on in my life – my kids, my wife, my business, my health, my parents and in-laws (actually, I have no parents and in-laws anymore as they have all passed, so maybe that’s easier in some ways), but you get the point – we all have a lot of “stuff” in our lives.  So do ballplayers.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

All of this gives me pause, because the power of the human spirit is incredible!   I have hope (and tangible evidence from others) that Eric Stults, Manny Ramirez, James McDonald, Rafael Furcal and Chad Billingsley could actually harness their vast talent (initially or again) and put up some great numbers.  In fact, I will go on record that there will be no “middle ground” with Manny – he will be very good… or very bad!  I am betting on the VERY GOOD part, like .310/37/124.  That would play well in the middle of our lineup!

I name these five players, because I think they are in a unique position – they are all poised for breakout (or comback) years in 2010!  If that happens, LOOK OUT!  This could be a very SPECIAL season.

Tony Jackson of ESPN.LosAngeles and Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times are both reporting of the Dodgers interest in several players for the 4th outfield spot.  I suppose

A Freakin' Gazelle

 there are reasons to consider Gross, Anderson and maybe even Johnson, but Brian Giles?  He became irrelevant a couple of years ago.  The problem is that none are Center Fielders and unless thay are keeping Repko as #5, it makes no sense.  If they are keeping Repko, then I would pick Garrett Anderson.  He could be our main LH pinch hitter and spell Manny in LF against tough RH and Repko could spell Ethier in RF against tough lefties.  That makes the most sense.

I know this.  We are set with Timo Freaking Perez.  He’s a Freakin’ Gazelle.

… and nothing but the truth!  That’s why you come here, because I am going to tell you the truth.  God knows it’s not because I’m a writer.  At any rate, let’s consider the following and see if what is happening is true or false.

True or False:  Ned Colletti, Frank McCourt and Dennis Mannion have all been “singing out of the same hymnbook” that it’s business as usual for the Dodgers”?

Answer:  True and False!    It’s true that it is “business as usual,” but the “business model” has been changed, so that’s false.  Let me explain.  Ned has made some acquisitions the past few years which have not proven to be (how should I say it?) prudent (how’s that?).   Now, under some circumstances, he might be fired, but not in this case because Frank McCourt, as the new owner of the Dodgers was trying to make an impact and the signings of Pierre (I love Juan Pierre, but he was a bad signing),  Schmidt, Jones and Manny were all approved  (or even “pushed”) by Frank.  So, Ned does not bear all the culpability for those bad deals, and Frank and Ned have come to an understanding:  Frank will be an owner and Ned will be the GM.  Frank has also assured Ned that if he needs more funds to sign a player, he can feel free to come to Frank for more money.  Frank wants to keep the payroll at around $100,000,000 this year, but after the May hearing, he will have a better idea if the Dodgers can be buyers in August and he thinks they can. 

The truth is that the Dodgers have a very good team this year. Maybe it has escaped some of you, but they have some extremely good young players who have gotten better (much better) the past three years.  Even our oft-maligned catcher is rated 4th to 7th in most Fantasy Leagues.  If you can’t have Joe Mauer, the 4th to 7th best Catcher ain’t so bad!   We have some young pitchers who are suddenly just going to “get it.”  BANG!  Our aces-in-waiting will become our aces.  None of  this is lost on savvy baseball people, but it is lost on some of you. 

Forget the TOP 100 or TOP 50 Baseball Prospects.  Ethan Martin is in the Top 50, but I think we have 4 or 5 others who are better than him- Aaron Miller, Chris Withrow, Garrett Gould, Josh Lindblom, Alan Webster and Nate Eavoldi may be among them.   Think Andrew Lambo’s stock has dropped?  Keep thinking that!  Watch him rake this year.  Dee Gordon?  This kid has “star”written all over him! 

What about the big club?  Why did we sign Jamey Carroll only to sign Ronnie Belliard a few weeks later?  Simple – Ned had to make sure we had a veteran second-baseman, and Lopez, Belliard and Hudson were asking Big Bux.  Ned signed Jamey to make sure he had a fallback plan. Plan A is to give Blake DeWitt the opportunity to win the job (forget his season last year, as he bounced around like a yo-yo from the Ravine to Albaquacky 9 times).  The year before, he hit over .300 for 2 months and he has some decent power.  Unless he tanks, the job is his.  Carroll will be a “Dave Hansen Type” Pinch Hitter and Belly will be Belly. 

You naysayers are in for a surprise.  This team isn’t just “good”  – IT’S VERY GOOD! 

Dodger fans – you are in for the ride of your life, and in August, the Dodgers will probably be buyers because they haven’t blown their budget. 

 Like Dave Ramsey says “Live like no one else now, so you can live like no one else later.”

Some people are saying that the Dodgers are a .500 team (when I say “some people” I don’t mean “informed baseball people”), which I think is just plain delusional.  I think sometimes Dodger fans fail to take into consideration that change is inevitable, and often, it is good.  Will everything be OK?  Seth Godin summed it up today by saying:

It’s natural to seek reassurance. Most of us want to believe that the choices we make will work out, that everything will be okay.

Artists and those that launch the untested, the new and the emotional (and I’d put marketers into all of these categories) wrestle with this need all the time. How can we proceed knowing that there’s a good chance that our actions will fail, that things might get worse, that everything won’t end up okay? In search of solace, we seek reassurance.

So people lie to us. So we lie to ourselves.

No, everything is not going to be okay. It never is. It isn’t okay now. Change, by definition, changes things. It makes some things better and some things worse. But everything is never okay.

Finding the bravery to shun faux reassurance is a critical step in producing important change. Once you free yourself from the need for perfect acceptance, it’s a lot easier to launch work that matters.

Will the Dodgers be OK?  We are so much in the middle of the Forest that we can’t see the trees, or is it we can’t see the Forest for the trees?  I will leaf that alone.  What I will say is that we often look at how a player performed last year and extrapolate that into the next.  What we fail to factor in is that we have a very young team and these guys often get better by leaps and bounds.  In some cases you can count on it.  I think we forget how far some of our young player have come, how much they have matured and how they will almost certainly continue down that same path. 

In the middle of the long, cold winter, I usually pick-up a copy of Lindy’s Fantasy Baseball(I never play it myself), because over the years, I have found that their takes are pretty close to the reality.  I don’t know for sure, but I think that they use a variety of statistical analysis as well as scouting resources to reach their conclusions.  At any rate, I have read them for many years and their accuracy rate is exceptional when predicting what players might do.  I thought I’d share a few of their predictions:

• Russell Martin is the 7th Highest Ranked Catcher in Baseball behind Soto, Posada, Wieters, McCann, Martinez and Mauer – no surprise there. He is rated ahead of Suzuki, Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, Yadier Molina,  Chris Iannetta and Mike Napoli.  I caught a lot of heat from some of you for ranking him that high, but you can see I’m not the only one!   (Projection:  .269/9 HR/58 RBI/470 AB)  Comments:  “He inexplicably morphed into Jason  Kendall with slightly more pop, slipping even in stolen bases, a category he once dominated.  He’ll either return to fantasy relevance or fade into oblivion this season.”
• James Loneyis the 15th Highest Rated First Baseman is Baseball ranked ahead of Chris Davis, Paul Konerko, Adam LaRoche, Jorge Cantu, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Casey Kotchman and Aubrey Huff (Projection:  .281/18 HR/30 DBL/92 RBI) Comments:  “There’s a lack of sizzle and a whole lot of Mark Grace going on here.  A more critical peek at his numbers reveals Loney is becoming more patient (70 walks last season), suggesting a brighter future.  He’s due for a spike … don’t bet on an explosion.”
• Of course, the Dodgers don’t have anyone rated at 2B, but I do hope they give Blake DeWitt the opportunity.  If he and Carroll can’t cut it, then we can make a deal.  Second-basemen are a dime a dozen and that All-Star you all wanted back (Orlando Hudson) is only the 16th rated at his position (and he wants $9 mil a year?  HA!).
• Casey Blake is ranked #17 at 3B, right ahead of Casey McGhee, Andy LaRoche, Garrett Atkins, Jhonny Peralta, Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigington and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  (Projection:  .276/18 HR/ 76 RBI).  The words they use as “consistent” and “solid.”  Certainly, he ’s no star, but we could do worse.  
• Raffy Furcal is ranked the #14 SS and Lindys calls him “No longer an elite fantasy option, as injuries have robbed him of his speed and power.”  (Projection: .283/10 HR/51 RBI/15 SB)  If he can put up those numbers with a .360 OB%, we will be fine. “Hurry up Dee Gordon!”
• Ryan Braun is rated the #1 outfielder, but #2 is none other than our Matt Kemp (Projection: .302/35 DBL/8 TRIP/31 HR/105 RBI/38 SB).  Those are “elite” numbers.  Andre Ethier is rated #16 (Projection: .293/36 DBL/30 HR/102 RBI) and Manny Ramirez is #18 (Projection: .302/26 HR/86 RBI).  They say that they still believe “Ethier will win a batting title” and that “Manny still has an elite batting eye and isn’t done being relevant in our game.”  If that prediction holds up for our outfielders, the Dodgers should be very good offensively.  In fact, that should be baseballs best offensive outfield.
• When it comes to pitching, Lindys has Clayton Kershaw at #16, just ahead of Cliff Lee!  Chris Carpenter was #15.  Other pitchers ranked behind Kershaw are:  Vazquez, Cain, Beckett, Jimenez, Webb, Peavy, Shields and Lackey who was rated #25, just ahead of Chad Billingsley at #26.  (Projections:  Kershaw- 16-6/2.88 ERA /198 IP/156 H/210 K/1.24 WHIP; Billingsley – 14-11/3.72 ERA/202 IP/180 H/188 K/1.29 WHIP).  Here’s what they say about Clayton:  “He’s a still a work in progress, last summer adding a slider to compliment his mid-90’s fastball and all-world curveball.  Check out Fangraphs.com for more on his slider and put a check next to his name on your cheatsheet.  He’s going to be unstoppable in the very near future.”  Yeah, like maybe in 2010?  Billingsley was rated ahead of the likes of Baker, Garza, Rodriguerz, Lilly, Weaver, Dempster, Nolasco, Anderson, Oswalt, Burnett, Bucholz, Jurrjens, Danks, Jackson and Harden.  They regards the 2nd half of 2009 as a “hiccup.”  Hiroki Kuroda was ranked #49, ahead of Hudson, Kazmir, Maine, Sherzer, Saunders, Pineiro, Zambrano and Randy Wolf (who was #65, and they predict 10 wins with an ERA over 4.00 for him).  They project Kuroda at 11-8 with a 3.63 ERA/182 IP and ad WHIP of 1.20.  Of Kuroda they said “his underlying numbers are solid and the injuries were not arm-related.“  Vicente Padilla weighed in at #96 (not bad for a #4), just behind Jon Garland at #95.  They project him at 12-10 with a 4.33 ERA and 169 IP with a 1.43 WHIP.
• Which brings us to Jon Broxton, ranked #5 as a closer.  Here’s the crux of what they say about him (sounds like what I say):  “Perhaps a visit with a sports psychologist is in order…”  ‘Nuff said!  George Sherrill is rated #40 and Lindys thinks he could close more on the road, especially against LH’ers (where Brox has his issues).

So, while Lindy’s is not Bill James or Fangraphs, it’s still very useful, and I have found that their projections are quite accurate.  I think a lot of Dodger fans depreciate the value of a lot of our young players, as well as our role-players.  The 2010 Version of the LA Dodgers is destined to be VERY, VERY GOOD!  Now, depending upon what happens with the divorce, we could be buyers in August.  Get ready for a great season!  I see at leat 93 wins!

DODGER NEWS:

• Jon Weisman has an excellent post on the Dodgers lack of resources at this juncture.
• The Phillies have $130 million committed to 14 players in 2011, which means they may not be abale to sign Jason Werth.  Hummmm…
• The Dodgers could sign Noah Lowery as soon as NOW!

There is much debate among baseball professionals and fans regarding the benefit of taking multiple pitches during an at bat in order to drive up the pitch count of the starting pitcher and to see more types of pitches in order to be more productive later in the game.  However, it is well know that a batter’s batting average drops drastically when they get behind in the count. 

Lets’ look at the 7 returning Dodger starters and how they batted last year.

Loney has the best batting average for a specific count three times; Rameriz, Ethier and Kemp twice; and Martin once.  Martin has the worst batting average for a specific count five times; Blake twice; and Rameriz, Kemp, Furcal and Ethier once.

 The seven starter’s combined batting average is above their OBP when hitting at counts 2 – 0; 3 – 1; and 2 – 1. Six starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 2 – 0.  Five starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 3 – 1. Three starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 2 – 1.  So why must the batters take a pitch at these counts.  Certainly when a batter’s average on certain counts is above their OBP for the season they should be hitting.  Maybe taking pitches at these counts is one of the reasons that the Dodger batting average with RISP was so poor last year.

Six batters have an average below .200 when the count is 2 – 2.  Four batters have an average below .200 when the count is 0 – 2 or 1 – 2.  These batters should be more aggressive and tryvery hard not to let the count get to these levels.  Maybe taking extra strikes, that result in these counts, is one of the reasons that the Dodger batting average with RISP was so poor last year.

 Blake has an average below .200 when the count is either 1 – 0; or 0 – 1.  He obviously needs to take many pitches in order to become accustomed to the movement and speed of pitches. Martin even has an average below .200 when the count is 3 – 2.   Obviously Martin’s batting approached is completely screwed up.  He does have a batting average above .400 only when the count is 1 – 0; 2 – 0; and 3 – 1, so for him to take strikes is really insanity.

 In conclusion, each player handles pressure differently and adjusts their swing to the count and situation differently so a blind alliance to taking a lot of pitches is sophomoric.

Los Angeles – In what has to be somewhat of a surprise, the Dodgers made two major announcements today.  The first announcement has to do with the divorce proceedings of Frank and Jamie McCourt who agreed to a continuance of their May hearing:

The McCourt’s announced that they have resolved their personal issues and that Jamie will keep all personal property, vehicles, art and personal items.  She also agreed to a $100,000,000.00 payment (payable over 5 years at 6% interest) from Frank McCourt, and assumes her role as CEO of the Dodgers Dream Foundation which will be funded by a $8 million a year grant from the Dodgers.  In return, Frank McCourt gets sole ownership of the Dodgers and has agreed to hire all their sons as club executives. 

Next, Ned Colletti took the dais and said that this is a big burden off the Dodgers and made the following announcement:  “The Dodgers have just completed a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Mariners, who have fallen 26 games below .500. whereby  Chris Withrow, Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert, Casey Blake and  James McDonald have been traded to the Blue Jays for Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Felix Hernandez.  Hernandez has agreed to to a six-year/$125 million deal and Lee has agreed to a 4 year/$90 mil deal.  Our lineup will look like this right now:

1. Figgins  3B
2. Furcal SS
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Martin  C
7. Loney  1B
8. DeWitt 2B

Our Rotation now looks like this as we ready for the stretch run:

Hernandez, Lee, Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda.

Colletti continued:  “With the expiring contracts of Ramirez and Kuroda, we we able to take on more payroll since the ownership issue was resolved and our lenders opened their pockets again.  If we had made all the dope-fiend moves suggested on LaDodgerTalk.com, we would have never had the flexibility to pull this off.  Sure, we gave up a lot, but we are going to win this thing!   I’m glad I listened to Mark Timmons….”

Look, it is apparent that the Dodgers are trying to stay around $100 mil in payroll.  The Angels are not spenders either, and I would not be surprised if their payroll was lower than the Dodgers.  While attendance was good, I think that other revenue streams in LA have receded.  It apparent from the (in)activity of both teams.  Frank McCourt is sitting on a Gold Mine with all the property around Chavez Ravine to be developed, an upcoming cable deal, and stadium naming rights. 

However, he may (or may not) be the owner of the Dodgers, and pending that resolution, very little money will be spent until the arbitration cases are settled.  Deal with it – it’s the way it is.  We aren’t the Padres with a $35 mil payroll and few scouts and farm system personnel.  The Los Angeles Dodgers have a FULLY STOCKED FRONT OFFICE, with more professional baseball people running it than any other team!  

The Dodgers recently hired Ken Bracey who was one of the top player development people within San Diego’s organization and also added Bruce Hines, who also has 25 years experience to our Minor League Staff.  They continue to have a deep instruction base in the minor leagues.  To say that McCourt just wants to plunder the team, brands you as a crackpot.  To think we didn’t offer arbitration to Wolf and Hudson because we didn’t want to pay a first round draft pick is borderline psychotic!  There may not have been much of a chance either would have accepted, but THERE WAS A CHANCE, and due to the Dodgers payroll limitations, they simply couldn’t take that chance.  If they were really intent upon pillaging the farms system, you get rid of all the suits with six-digit salaries first.  Then, you would quit spending on personnel and development at Camelback Ranch.  GET A GRIP ON REALITY!

The past few seasons, we have signed Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones and Manny Ramirez.  By staying out of the game right now, we may be in a better position come Spring or July.  Big contracts haven’t gotten us much.  It is what it is and it isn’t the end of the Dodgers.  By July, they should have their ownership resolved.  McCourt will be in (or out) and then the Dodgers should have a direction.  Quit raving like lunatics – this too shall pass… and we might (JUST MIGHT) be better for it.

Sometimes you get better from within…

UPDATE:  SI’s Jon Heyman reports that the Dodgers may be interested in Adrian Beltre…

Some people say I am too optimistic and that I always predict career years for the Dodgers, so I thought I’d post what I said last year.  This is from a February 16, 2009 post, which was BEFORE O-Dog and Manny were signed:

1B- James Loney is quietly becoming a force at 1B.  He will win a Gold Glove soon and should be a .300 hitter with 20 HR and 100 RBI.  That puts him near the top at his position.

2B- Blake DeWitt will be the official starter, but Mark Loretta will start against tough LH pitchers.  I predict that this platoon will produce a BA of .270/20 HR and 70 RBI from the #8 hole.

SS- If Rafael Furcal stays healthy, he is one of the top impact players in the game.

3B- Casey Blake provides a very important mental toughness which will help his young teammates.  The versatility of DeWitt (2B, 3B) and Blake (3B, 1B, LF, RF) allows Joe Torre to “rest”  Russell Martin at 3B on certain days.  Blake could also see some time in LF.

LF- Andre Ethier will be a year better and I project him at .300/25/100.  He is an excellent LF as well, with a very good arm.  He’s not as soft as he once was.

CF – Juan Pierre has to play here.  He’s not the greatest CF ever, but he covers more ground than Kemp and has more experience.  He needs to play there if Manny is not signed.

RF – Matt Kemp is possibly the offensive key to our season.  If he continues to improve, and realizes more of his potential (he reported with the pitchers and catchers to Spring Training), he will not be  just be the Bison, but he’ll also be the Monster.  I expect him to hit near .300 with 25-30 HR and 110 RBI from the Cleanup Spot.  He will also have about 15-20 Outfield Assists.

C-  This will be the year that Russell Martin distances himself from most other catchers in baseball.   His hitting and defense will be elevated, but most importantly, he will become the Dodgers captain.

OK, how did I do?  Loney was short of .300  and while he did have 90 RBI, his power didn’t yet amnifest itself, but I wasn’t far off.  O-Dog played 2B so I am returning to my prediction at 2B for DeWitt and Carroll.  Raffy had a bad year – I don’t know if it was injury related but it wasn’t good.  Blake was what he was.  I “underestimated”  Ethier and “overestimated” Martin.    My prediction on Kemp was pretty accurate.

So, where’s the beef?

In the same post I said:

This team is a lot better than most of you think, even without Manny!  For the record, if Manny doesn’t sign with us, it will be with the Yankees, which would make more of their outfielders available.  I still don’t see anyone beating the Dodgers offers to Manny because baseball expects to be hurting this year.  The Dodgers have sold half of the season tickets they projected for spring training and all the teams realize that with the economy more and more people will cut back on games and cut back on what they buy at the park.  You are kidding yourself if you think someone will pay Manny more than the Dodgers – certainly not the Giants!  One final thing.  If Manny doesn’t sign, we still can sign Orlando Hudson and put him at 2B, move Dewitt to 3B and platoon Blake and Pierre in the OF.  Just a thought…

You never know how things will play out, but I wasn’t too far off!

Last off-season, I predicted that it would not be Manny who made the team better, but rather “the kids.” 

Little did I know what would happen to Manny and how he would later struggle.  If the Manny Ramirez of 2008 had played in 2009, the Dodgers might still be shaking the confetti out of their shoes, because the kids made huge strides. 

Well, some did (Kershaw, Kemp, Ethier), some stayed the same (Loney, Broxton) and some regressed (Martin and Billingsley).  I am here to once again submit that Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson would not make us World Series Champs in 2010, but again, it on the kids – Kemp and Loney and Kershaw have to keep marching toward greatness.  Billingsley and Martin have to return to form and Broxton and Loney need to crank it up another notch. 

I believe we have at least four good starting pitchers on our team, but what might win it for us is a late spring or trade deadline deal.  Come July, we may have to decide if we want to trade Chris Withrow, Ivan DeJesus, Jr.  and Andrew Lambo for someones Ace!  Of course, that depends upon a lot of factors, including how those players are doing, but we have the horses to do a deal. 

The Dodgers didn’t want to pay Randy Wolf, who is a guy who averages 148 IP  a year and has a career 4.13 ERA, a long-term deal and they didn’t want to get stuck paying him even $9 mil a year.  There were time last year when Randy Wolf was our best pitcher, but in 2010, he could just as easily be our #5 or worse yet, injured!  If Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda and Haeger can pitch 800 innings, Randy Wolf will be a distant memory.

The Mets who are intent on spending money, recently had their GM recently say that their starting rotation would be Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and Jonathon Niese.  Santana has arm issues and the rest hardly strike fear into anyone’s hearts.  I think WE can do better, by standing pat for the time being.  Dodger fans are crying “Wolf” but come July, they may find they have been out-foxed!  Sometimes the best moves you make are the ones you don’t. 

MORE NEWS:

Interesting List of Top Dodger Prospects by John Sickels.  Here’s a quote from the post:

The Dodgers are strong on the pitching side: Martin and Miller could both be B+ guys a year from now, maybe even an A- if their command really sharpens up. Withrow could rank as the number one prospect ahead of Dee Gordon if you prefer pitching to hitting. His ceiling is terrific, although I’d like to see his walk rate come down. He has Homer Bailey-like risk if they rush him too fast. Elbert’s stuff is right up there with the other pitchers, but there are enough chinks in his armor (command, health history) to keep his grade slightly lower in my mind. I’m probably higher on Gould than some folks, but I see him in the same mold as the others if he develops properly. Other live arms such as Jansen, Eovaldi, Webster, and Wallach all have significant potential but enough doubts or lack of data right now to keep their ratings in the C+ range.

The hitters are led by the electric Dee Gordon, who will need some time to put his game together but has big upside. Possible comp: Rafael Furcal, circa 2000-2006. DeJesus doesn’t have the same ceiling but still has a chance to be a very useful player if his leg is OK. I haven’t given up on Lambo yet, not at age 21.

The hitting in beyond that is thin: there is a mixture of tools guys and polish guys, but they all have questionmarks of one sort of another. Adding some additional impact hitting depth for the system seems like a good idea; we’ll have to see if they address that in the 2010 draft.

Trades and graduations have thinned the system out, but overall I think Logan White and his staff do a fine job and the potential for a quick recharge seems good to me.

Bill Shaikin of The LA Times has an interview with Dennis Mannion, the Dodgers President & Big Kahuna.  While I am not one to believe everything I read, I believe most (maybe all) of what he said.  Here’s one quote I found interesting:

“Our baseball and business decisions have not been impacted by the proceedings. Neither [General Manager] Ned [Colletti] nor I have been asked by anyone to limit long-term liabilities.”

Here’s what wasn’t said:  “We have a budget, and like most other businesses, we cannot go over that budget.  PERIOD!  Within that budget, we are free to do whatever we think makes sense, but we cannot exceed it.”

I may have a different point of view on this than some people, because in business I am used to operating within the confines of a budget.  So while I wish the Dodgers would spend $150 mil on payroll, I believe that $100 mil is the cap this year and the Dodgers really cannot spend until they deal with the arbitration cases or re-sign them long-term.  That, I believe, is the long and short of it!

Then, there was this exchange at the end:

Is there anything other than action in your mind that is going to be able to convince fans that this organization is not limited by severe cost controls, given all the things we’ve talked about?

I think actions are the only way to speak to it.

Are you convinced you’ll be able to show enough action soon?

I would hope so.

Here’s the deal – according to the article, the Dodgers didn’t make money last year.  They just about “broke even.”  I think the economy played more of a role than “the divorce.”  As the economy rebounds and the Dodgers generate more revenue, you will see a higher payroll.  Just my opinion…

I still foresee a VERY BRIGHT year in 2010 for the Dodgers.  A lot of good things have to happen, be we probably have the best outfield in baseball.  It’s possible that we could see 100 HR from the trio of Manny, Matt and Andre.  We have lots of young arms and they will be given every opportunity to “seize the day.”  We have players like Xavier Paul, Chin-lung Hu, Scott Elbert, AJ Ellis, Ronald Belisario, Ramnon Troncoso, Corey Wade, Jason Repko, Josh Lindblom and many others who will be given opportunities to step up.

You can see the glass as half-empty - I see it as “half-full”… and filling…

Here’s what I see with our offense for next season:

1. Furcal  SS -  Raffy rebounds (it is an “even” year) and has his career year with a .303 BA, .381 OB% and 126 Runs Scored, even though he only steels 26 bases
2. Martin C- Perfect #2 hitter rebounds with a .279 BA to go with .388 OB%
3. Loney 1B – Breakout year at 1B with 22 HR. 106 RBI and a .316 BA
4. Kemp CF – Monster year with MVP like numbers - .312 BA, 38 HR and 119 RBI
5. Manny LF – Continues to be a very good player, not not “elite-class” – .299 BA, 27 HR, 96 RBI
6. Ethier RF – A nice year, but not quite as good as 2009 – .274 BA 27 HR and 93 RBI
7. Blake 3B – Solid, but not great with a .267 BA, 18 HR and 78 RBI
8. DeWitt 2B – Nice year with a .258 BA to go with 19 HR and 67 RBI

It’s rare when most players on a team have good years, but I think the numbers I have assigned each player are certainly within their capability!

Feel free to agree… or not!

I also think Doug Mientkiewicz and Jamey Carroll will make a nice L-R pinch-hitting tandem, although neither has much power.  Angel Berroa is insurance in case the Reds wanted Hu in the alleged Harang deal, which is near dead according to Dylan Hernandez of The LA Times.  In the same article he quotes Ned Colletti as saying that Jon Link (acquired in the Pierre deal) is the closest to major league ready:

Of the two pitchers the Dodgers acquired from the Chicago White Sox to complete the Juan Pierre trade, Colletti said 25-year-old reliever Jon Link was the closest to being major-league-ready.

“He has a chance to be on our club this year,” he said.

Link saved 13 games and had a 3.99 earned-run average in 48 relief appearances for triple-A Charlotte last season. The Dodgers also received John Ely in the deal. Ely, 23, was 14-2 with a 2.82 ERA for double-A Birmingham last season.

Colletti said the Dodgers remain interested in re-signing backup catcher Brad Ausmus, but if they fail to do so, they would feel comfortable with A.J. Ellis in that role.

ADRIAN BELTRE

I was asked about Adrian Beltre yesterday on the other thread and while I do not think it is likely the Dodgers will sign him, I think he would be a huge upgrade at 3B.  First, let’s compare stats:

These stats are based upon playing 162 games a year.  At age 36, Casey Blake has 6.5 years of major league service.  Adrian Beltre at age 30 has 10.3 years of major league experience.  Adrian had some serious injuries last year, but at age 30, should be in his prime.  We have to expect a decline for Blake at as 36.  Beltre is a huge defensive upgrade at 3B (Blake was a surprise there last year, however).  

However, the main reason I want Beltre is “JUST A GUT FEELING THAT A RETURN TO THE DODGERS WOULD CATAPULT HIM TO AN ALL-STAR YEAR!”  

Totally rational!

I am sick of talking about the divorce proceedings, so you won’t find much about it here – you know where to look.  However, I do want to address the Free Pass Baseball Fans are giving Arte Moreno while castigating Frank McCourt.   The Angels lost two of their most important free agents – Figgins and Lackey – both of whom they wanted back.  Vlad is likely to walk and the Angels payroll is reported to need to stay around $100,000,000 and yet Moreno is hailed as a genius and McCourt is a miserly idiot. 

Here’s the long and short of it – From day one some people have had a bad opinion about Frank, and anything done by him was proof that he was a horrible owner.  It is sort of like doing your taxes by filling in the bottom line first.  By all accounts, the Dodgers payroll will be $100 million this year.  So will the Angels.   We have youngsters who I believe will step up even more than last year.  Contrary to what you think, the Dodgers prospects are as bright as the Angels. .. probably brighter!  Are the Dodgers cash strapped?  Yes!  Are other teams?  Absolutely!

Frank McCourt isn’t the second coming, but he’s not what many of you make him out to be.  However, due to their opinion of McCourt, some pile on due to the divorce.  Manny Ramirez was not the key to the Dodgers last year.  It was the youngsters.   The Dodgers were forced into signing Manny by their fans last year.  It was $25 mil wasted!  If we would have saved that $25 mil, we might be sitting on Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay right about now.  It is what it is – we have Manny and we don’t have Lee or Halladay, but we have more young power arms than any team in baseball.  We have Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loneyand Russ Martin – 4 young players who figure to get a lot better (yeah, I think Martin WILL bounce back – he’s too good).  How that plays out remains to be seen, but I think you will be surprised.  I also think that Blake DeWitt will surprise us.   I also believe Clayton and Chad will pitch like Aces. 

We won 94 games last year in the regular season after many fans said the Dodgers would be a sub-.500 team without Manny!  Then you say “Yeah, they won’t 94 games BUT….”  No buts!  The Dodgers won 94 games and I expect at least the same next year.  Watch and learn!  Remember on thing:  Frank McCourt knows that he has to put a good product on the field or he will lose more money than he could ever save by not paying players.  He is painfully aware of that – so is Dennis Mannion and the rest of the operations people.  If you think the Dodgers will try and put a crappy product on the field, you are sadly mistaken.  I understand why the Dodgers didn’t sign Wolf or Hudson and why they didn’t offer them arbitration.  It wasn’t the bonuses they had to pay to draft picks – it was because they were afraid the players would accept arbitration.  You may think otherwise, and you are free to do that, but I am one who thinks there was a good chance one or both players would have accepted.  Why?  It’s about the money!  I formed that opinion by talking to a lot of people close to the team, and it’s just my opinion.

You will see the Dodgers sign some players, but if you all hadn’t cried for Manny last year, we’d have our Ace!  Crying is not becoming to Dodger fans!   It’s downright nauseating to me.

UPDATE:

I researched Forbes rankings of the MLB teams and these are their numbers.

You can see that the Dodgers were operating with almost $20 mil negative operating income.  Frank McCourt paid more than $200 million MORE for the Dodgers than Moreno paid for the Angels, and yet the Dodgers are arguably better than the Angels under Franks watch.  Moreno has more than doubled the valve of the Angels, while McCourt has not quite doubled the value of the Dodgers.  It is easier to double a business the lower the initial income.  Their operating incomes are both near 3%, but McCourt has put tens of millions more into the stadium and spring training facilities than Moreno.

It’s no secret that the McCourts are in the midst of a messy divorce, but would things be any different if Frank and Jamie were still together?

Would that have caused the Dodgers to offer arbitration to Randy Wolf and/or Orlando Hudson?  Would that have caused the Dodgers to sign Wolf?  Well, no one can be sure, but do you really want 3 years of Randy Wolf?  I mean, two years ago and even last year, many of you didn’t want him back. 

Yeah, the Randy Wolf of 2009 was pretty nice, so nice that he earned the Type A Free Agent Rating, but what are the odds that he stays healthy or continues his level of success in 2010, 2011 and 2012?  I would say the odds are not good.  That’s just my opinion, but I don’t see him as a workhorse.  I do see a guy who could say that he was a Type A Free Agent who had better stats that D-Lowe, and D-Lowe makes $15 mil a year.  That was the most that Wolf stood to make – $15 mil a year, but if he would have asked for, say $13 million a year, he would have had a decent shot at it, especially if the Dodgers offered less than $10 million. 

You might say that the Brewers offered him about $30 mil over 3 years, but what makes you so sure they would have offered the contract if they had to give up compensation?  You don’t know, and there is no way to ever know, but it’s circular thinking to think it would have happened the same way.   I think the Dodgers decided (change that – I know that the Dodgers decided that they did not want to give Randy Wolf a multi-year deal in the $10 mil per year range and they felt he would accept arbitration because (1) he knew he could get $11-15 mil in arbitration ($15 mil is probably too high, but maybe not); and (2) they did not want to commit to a multi-year deal with him.  This is all conjecture, but offering arbitration would have changed the whole dynamic. 

For similar reasons, Orlando Hudson, who did not want to come back to LA, would have jumped at a chance for a $10 million payday.  He was an All-Star and Gold Glove 2B on multiple occasions, and again – a case could be made that he could command up to $10 million a year.  Likely?  MAYBE NOT, BUT POSSIBLE!   It is an extreme example, but it’s possible that the Dodgers could have had 25% of their $100 million payroll tied up with two players.  Again, it may not have been likely, but it was a scenario that the Dodgers had to consider as possible.  If that had happened it would have crippled the Dodgers ability give raises to their youngsters.

Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson made us better in 2009, but I have reason to believe that one of our youngsters can step in and fill their shoes.   McDonald, Troncoso, Elbert, Lindblom and Haeger are in the mix for the first 2 spots behind Billingsley, Kershaw and Kuroda.  Again, come July, more arms will be on the market at a cheaper price.  I see nothing wrong with trying the youngsters and then shopping in July, if necessary.  Should Ned tell you that?  Why play your cards?  This team is going to be very good next year, if only because our players are another year older and more mature.  Blake DeWitt is a “Ballplayer” at 2B, and I would not even sniff at Belliard or Carroll, unless it’s as a utility-man.

Manny Ramirez will also be playing for a new contract and I think he will return with a vengeance.  I also don’t see the Dodgers buying-down Pierre’s contract.  They will keep him or trade him for a pitcher with a “bad contract.”  I still hope for Harang (because I think he has a higher upside than Arroyo), but who knows?  The Dodgers still need bench help, but we already have Xavier Paul, Jason Repko, Juan Pierre and Chin-lung Hu.  Brad Ausmus is a strong possibility again,  and so all we need is another RH infield bat – not Craig Counsell who is LH.

So, back to the question first propounded – would things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  I can’t answer that, but I will ask, should things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  This is a business and is it prudent to sign players like Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones or, for that matter, Manny Ramirez?  I say no.  I am on record this time last year as saying the Dodgers should not sign Manny (something for which I was castigated), but Manny was mostly a “non-factor.”  Go after “Blue Chip” Players, not “cow chip” players.  If we had went after C.C. Sabathia instead of Manny, we would be talking right now about Hudson or Wolf, and we might have won the Series last year. 

I say that when it comes to Free Agents – Go BIG or Stay Home!  Think about it!  There are no “BIG” ones this year, so we should stay home.  Quit trying to “make a silk purse out of a sows ear.”  So, if you are one of the naysayers who say “The Dodgers Won’t Win With The Pitchers They Have,”  You are probably the same ones who told me the Dodgers wouldn’t win without Manny. They didn’t win WITH him.