Just a laundry list of a few things I expect to see this year:

• A healthy Rafael Furcal who is 100% physically and (most importantly) mentally (it takes a while to recover mentally from a surgery) regains his form and is again one of the elite short stops in baseball.  This alone makes a huge difference for the team.
• Blake DeWitt wins the 2B job and hits 18 HR’s silencing his critics, while playing a good 2B.  (Make No Mistake – the Dodgers want DeWitt to be the 2B).
• Reed Johnson and Jamey Carroll (who have been much maligned) become two important components of the team (THESE GUYS ARE BALLPLAYERS) and contribute mightily.
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw become Co-Aces.  Bills is in the best shape I’ve seen him.
• James Loney will hit for more power, as will Russ Martin – I can’t tell you what they will do, but I expect better results.
• George Sherrill will not do well this year – I would love to see the Dodgers trade him.  I can see an ERA of over 4.00.   Pull the trigger, Ned!  Just do it!
• There WILL BE a significant trade this Spring involving the Dodgers.
• Brian Giles will retire by next weekend.
• Ronnie Belliard will be insignificant and ultimately be released.
• Who will step up – Hu?
• Opening Day Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Kemp  CF
3. Ethier  RF
4. Ramirez  LF
5. Loney 1B
6. Blake  3B
7. DeWitt 2B
8. Martin  C
9. Kershaw  P

Televised Game Today at 12:05 PDT or 3:05 EDT

Spring Training has broken out at Camelback Ranch and the news is pouring in:

• According to Ken Gurnick, Dodgers’ Bullpen Coach Ken Howell discovered a flaw in Eric Gagne’s delivery which he is attempting to correct.

The former Cy Young Award-winning closer made a quick adjustment and, according to Howell, immediately gained velocity on his fastball and drop on his changeup, although not yet with enough consistency.

• Sandy Koufax toutors young Dodger pitchers
• Eric Stults gets first shot as the 5th Starter
• Joe Torre gets Koufax and Kershaw together for some quality time
• The best part of the interview with Koufax was when TJ Simers asked “What bugs you?” to which Sandy responded “Sportswriters like you.” Classic Koufax
• By introducing Clayton Kershaw at the interview, it is obvious the Dodgers are anointing him the opening day starter, and evidently Joe Torre and the Dodger Brass believe he is ready and able to take a huge step forward this year and be our ACE!
• Dylan Hernandez on whether Andre Ethier is moody (maybe he’s just focused)
• Hong-Chih Kuo from Dylan Hernandez
• Steve Dilbeck on Eric Stults and that the job is his to lose
• Stults starts the game today against the ChiSox

After looking at the #5 Starter competition, I have concluded that anything is possible.  I believe that the favorites to win that position are as follows (in the order I think it most likely along with questions):

1. Eric Stults (his time?)
2. Charlie Haegar (was last year a fluke or a peek?)
3. James McDonald (he’s determined to win the spot, but can he?)
4. Jeff Weaver (can he return to being a solid-pitchers every 5 days?)
5. Scott Elbert (is his arm ready for this?)
6. Carlos Monasterios (can he jump that far?)

These six pitchers all have a shot and deserve consideration.  One will step-up.  Maybe two or three?   I can see only three of those pitchers making the team, maybe just two.  There will be some tough battles this Spring.  What do you think?

What other teams in the NL do you think will be in the playoffs?  I have already stated that I think the Rockies will not make the playoffs and I am now picking the Cardinals to be the best team in the league (behind the Dodgers, of course).  I hate to say it, but Brad Penny could win 20 under Dave Duncan (he has always had million-dollar talent to go with a 10 cent brain), and Kyle Lohse could also win 15-16 games.  If Wainright and Carpenter stay healthy, this could be an excellent rotation.  Dave Duncan is the master!

Around the WEB:

• Steve Dilbeck writes about Chad Billingsley’s Mental Toughness (or lack thereof)
• Ken Gurnick says that Cory Wade is in great shape and eager to re-gain his spot in the pen.  I found this part especially interesting:

“Wade brushed off the suggestion that middle relievers get abused and are particularly vulnerable to injuries of overuse.

“It really is an honor when a Hall of Fame manager has confidence to give the ball to a rookie,” he said. “It’s my own fault I ended up breaking down. I wasn’t as strong as I should have been. I wasn’t really prepared for the role.

“I did what I could do. As a first-year guy, you think you can handle it. I’d be happy with the role again. I’d do anything to help the club win. Last year was a big-time learning experience for me.”‘

• About a week ago, I wrote that I had heard James Loney had been working out and bulking up.  It turns out I was partially right.  Dylan Hernandez confirms that he is slimmer and stronger.  That bodes well for the Dodgers.
• It seems to me that the Dodger Kids are becoming grown men and they are determined to make their mark.  They are more mentally tough and they are prepared and planning for big years.
• Again, I don’t think that Russ Martin will continue his decline.  His character won’t allow it, and he’s not old.  Look for a big rebound.
• As much as it worries me, Rafael Furcal is a big key to 2010.  If he stays healthy and can put up good on-base numbers, the offense should be very good.  It all starts at the top.  It will be interesting who bats #2.  I vote for Kemp, due to his speed.
• If it comes down to Jeff Weaver or Charlie Haeger for the “swingman” role.  I’d keep Haegar – he’s much younger with a bigger upside.  Of course, theres’a  lot of time between now and then.  Too many scenarios to play out.
• Tony Jackson talks about Belli’s Belly and other issues at 2B.
• Jon Weisman thinks Xavier Paul could make the team if Giles and Mientkiewicz health issues keep up (and both have major issues)
• Jon Weisman opines what could happen with Ronald Belisario.
• MSTI discusses that Having a Good Team With No Ace is Better Than The Inverse- Good read
• Memories of Kevin Malone (hereafter “MKM”) profiles Chris Withrow.

Our 2010 Starting Rotation

Well, if you ask me… and you didn’t (but I’m going to tell you anyway), it’s Young Clayton.  Maybe it’s a rush job, but maybe it’s not.  Maybe he’s ready.  Not “maybe” – he ISready!   I think it’s likely that Clayton Kershaw will be even better this year.  His ERA might not reflect that, but he will pitch deeper into games and flirt with 20 wins this year.  After Clayton, will come Chad Billingsley, followedby Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, with the 5th Spot being Eric Stults to lose.

Unless Charlie Haeger is a disaster during the spring, he will battle Jeff Weaver for the “swingman” spot in the pen.  The rest of the bullpen is less clear.  We do know that Jon Broxton, George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso, Hong chih Kuo and James McDonald will probably all make the team barring injury.  I just can’t see Weaver and Haeger both making the team, as they are competing for the same position, but if it comes down to it, they will keep Charlie and send Jeff to AAA (at least for a few weeks under the guise of building arm strength).

That leaves a lot of pitchers up for grabs, including Ronnie Belisario, whom Joe Torre may want to demote for a while after his Visa problems two years in a row.   We also have Cory Wade, who could flat-out make the team out of Spring training, and Carlos Monasterios (who could be bought or have another player sent to his former team, and demoted).  Lindblom, Zerpa, Miller, Towers and Elbert all seem slated for AAA.

While it would be a “feel good” story and great if it happened, the odds are against Eric Gagne making the team.  Would he accept an assignment to AAA?  Maybe for a few weeks, but hey, this is Spring – anything can happen.

Let’s not forget, however, that there is always a pitching surprise.  Belisario was the big one last year.  Who will it be this year?

Rants & Raves

• I keep thinking about it and I can’t see Brian Giles or Doug Mientkiewicz making the team, especially if Xavier Paul has a rousing Spring
• Ronnie Belliard has to weigh below 210 pounds tomorrow – if he doesn’t, is he off the team.  At any rate, I don’t see him as a starter.  He’s a role-player (like last year).
• Russ Martin will be the All-Star Catcher in the NL this year – Write that down!
• Oh, and in case you don’t understand – I still say Clayton Kershaw will be our Opening Day Starter.

It turns out that Ronnie Belisario and I have a lot in common – No I don’t have a DUI, but we both have Visa problems that prevented us from reporting yesterday.  He hasn’t been able to obtain his, and I have to work to pay mine off!  So there you go.  Joe Torre isn’t mad at me , but he is mad at Ronnie! 

Spring is that time of year when the “little boy” in us all dreams big dreams: 

• Manny will have an MVP season
• Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier will combine to hit 80 HR and drive in 240
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw will be 1,2 or 2,1 in CY Young voting
• Russell Martin and Rafael Furcal will win Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves
• Eric Gagne will regain his form to become “Game Over” Gagne
• From James McDonald, Eric Stults and Charlie Haeger will emerge a #5 starter who goes 200 innings
• BelliCarroWitt will combine to hit over .300 at 2B
• Casey Blake didn’t have his career year last year – he will have it in 2010 – with a beard, no less

Now, most of those dreams will not happen, but some will and it’s going to be fun to see which ones play out.

Spring Notes:

• The Dodgers and Torre are working on an extension of one more year.
• Russell Martin allegedly looks like a fullback and has muscled up this year.  The last two years, he worked on flexibility and that simply didn’t work.  He’s allegedly about 20+ pounds heavier.
• To those of you who expect Casey Blake to have a bad year at 37, just look back at Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt and Pete Rose at 37.  If a guy takes care of himself, there no reason he can’t be at his peak then and I think that Casey Blake, while not in the category of the three above-mentioned 3B, is a candidate to do as good, probably better than last year.
• Rumor has it that James Loney may have “bulked up” over the winter.  That would make some of those fly balls, “Big Flies.”

Must Reading:

• Tony Jackson on Eric Gagne
• Dylan Hernandez on Chad Billingsley
• TJ Simers with a “Feel Good” Article on “Game Over”

Some people are saying that the Dodgers are a .500 team (when I say “some people” I don’t mean “informed baseball people”), which I think is just plain delusional.  I think sometimes Dodger fans fail to take into consideration that change is inevitable, and often, it is good.  Will everything be OK?  Seth Godin summed it up today by saying:

It’s natural to seek reassurance. Most of us want to believe that the choices we make will work out, that everything will be okay.

Artists and those that launch the untested, the new and the emotional (and I’d put marketers into all of these categories) wrestle with this need all the time. How can we proceed knowing that there’s a good chance that our actions will fail, that things might get worse, that everything won’t end up okay? In search of solace, we seek reassurance.

So people lie to us. So we lie to ourselves.

No, everything is not going to be okay. It never is. It isn’t okay now. Change, by definition, changes things. It makes some things better and some things worse. But everything is never okay.

Finding the bravery to shun faux reassurance is a critical step in producing important change. Once you free yourself from the need for perfect acceptance, it’s a lot easier to launch work that matters.

Will the Dodgers be OK?  We are so much in the middle of the Forest that we can’t see the trees, or is it we can’t see the Forest for the trees?  I will leaf that alone.  What I will say is that we often look at how a player performed last year and extrapolate that into the next.  What we fail to factor in is that we have a very young team and these guys often get better by leaps and bounds.  In some cases you can count on it.  I think we forget how far some of our young player have come, how much they have matured and how they will almost certainly continue down that same path. 

In the middle of the long, cold winter, I usually pick-up a copy of Lindy’s Fantasy Baseball(I never play it myself), because over the years, I have found that their takes are pretty close to the reality.  I don’t know for sure, but I think that they use a variety of statistical analysis as well as scouting resources to reach their conclusions.  At any rate, I have read them for many years and their accuracy rate is exceptional when predicting what players might do.  I thought I’d share a few of their predictions:

• Russell Martin is the 7th Highest Ranked Catcher in Baseball behind Soto, Posada, Wieters, McCann, Martinez and Mauer – no surprise there. He is rated ahead of Suzuki, Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, Yadier Molina,  Chris Iannetta and Mike Napoli.  I caught a lot of heat from some of you for ranking him that high, but you can see I’m not the only one!   (Projection:  .269/9 HR/58 RBI/470 AB)  Comments:  “He inexplicably morphed into Jason  Kendall with slightly more pop, slipping even in stolen bases, a category he once dominated.  He’ll either return to fantasy relevance or fade into oblivion this season.”
• James Loneyis the 15th Highest Rated First Baseman is Baseball ranked ahead of Chris Davis, Paul Konerko, Adam LaRoche, Jorge Cantu, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Casey Kotchman and Aubrey Huff (Projection:  .281/18 HR/30 DBL/92 RBI) Comments:  “There’s a lack of sizzle and a whole lot of Mark Grace going on here.  A more critical peek at his numbers reveals Loney is becoming more patient (70 walks last season), suggesting a brighter future.  He’s due for a spike … don’t bet on an explosion.”
• Of course, the Dodgers don’t have anyone rated at 2B, but I do hope they give Blake DeWitt the opportunity.  If he and Carroll can’t cut it, then we can make a deal.  Second-basemen are a dime a dozen and that All-Star you all wanted back (Orlando Hudson) is only the 16th rated at his position (and he wants $9 mil a year?  HA!).
• Casey Blake is ranked #17 at 3B, right ahead of Casey McGhee, Andy LaRoche, Garrett Atkins, Jhonny Peralta, Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigington and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  (Projection:  .276/18 HR/ 76 RBI).  The words they use as “consistent” and “solid.”  Certainly, he ’s no star, but we could do worse.  
• Raffy Furcal is ranked the #14 SS and Lindys calls him “No longer an elite fantasy option, as injuries have robbed him of his speed and power.”  (Projection: .283/10 HR/51 RBI/15 SB)  If he can put up those numbers with a .360 OB%, we will be fine. “Hurry up Dee Gordon!”
• Ryan Braun is rated the #1 outfielder, but #2 is none other than our Matt Kemp (Projection: .302/35 DBL/8 TRIP/31 HR/105 RBI/38 SB).  Those are “elite” numbers.  Andre Ethier is rated #16 (Projection: .293/36 DBL/30 HR/102 RBI) and Manny Ramirez is #18 (Projection: .302/26 HR/86 RBI).  They say that they still believe “Ethier will win a batting title” and that “Manny still has an elite batting eye and isn’t done being relevant in our game.”  If that prediction holds up for our outfielders, the Dodgers should be very good offensively.  In fact, that should be baseballs best offensive outfield.
• When it comes to pitching, Lindys has Clayton Kershaw at #16, just ahead of Cliff Lee!  Chris Carpenter was #15.  Other pitchers ranked behind Kershaw are:  Vazquez, Cain, Beckett, Jimenez, Webb, Peavy, Shields and Lackey who was rated #25, just ahead of Chad Billingsley at #26.  (Projections:  Kershaw- 16-6/2.88 ERA /198 IP/156 H/210 K/1.24 WHIP; Billingsley – 14-11/3.72 ERA/202 IP/180 H/188 K/1.29 WHIP).  Here’s what they say about Clayton:  “He’s a still a work in progress, last summer adding a slider to compliment his mid-90’s fastball and all-world curveball.  Check out Fangraphs.com for more on his slider and put a check next to his name on your cheatsheet.  He’s going to be unstoppable in the very near future.”  Yeah, like maybe in 2010?  Billingsley was rated ahead of the likes of Baker, Garza, Rodriguerz, Lilly, Weaver, Dempster, Nolasco, Anderson, Oswalt, Burnett, Bucholz, Jurrjens, Danks, Jackson and Harden.  They regards the 2nd half of 2009 as a “hiccup.”  Hiroki Kuroda was ranked #49, ahead of Hudson, Kazmir, Maine, Sherzer, Saunders, Pineiro, Zambrano and Randy Wolf (who was #65, and they predict 10 wins with an ERA over 4.00 for him).  They project Kuroda at 11-8 with a 3.63 ERA/182 IP and ad WHIP of 1.20.  Of Kuroda they said “his underlying numbers are solid and the injuries were not arm-related.“  Vicente Padilla weighed in at #96 (not bad for a #4), just behind Jon Garland at #95.  They project him at 12-10 with a 4.33 ERA and 169 IP with a 1.43 WHIP.
• Which brings us to Jon Broxton, ranked #5 as a closer.  Here’s the crux of what they say about him (sounds like what I say):  “Perhaps a visit with a sports psychologist is in order…”  ‘Nuff said!  George Sherrill is rated #40 and Lindys thinks he could close more on the road, especially against LH’ers (where Brox has his issues).

So, while Lindy’s is not Bill James or Fangraphs, it’s still very useful, and I have found that their projections are quite accurate.  I think a lot of Dodger fans depreciate the value of a lot of our young players, as well as our role-players.  The 2010 Version of the LA Dodgers is destined to be VERY, VERY GOOD!  Now, depending upon what happens with the divorce, we could be buyers in August.  Get ready for a great season!  I see at leat 93 wins!

DODGER NEWS:

• Jon Weisman has an excellent post on the Dodgers lack of resources at this juncture.
• The Phillies have $130 million committed to 14 players in 2011, which means they may not be abale to sign Jason Werth.  Hummmm…
• The Dodgers could sign Noah Lowery as soon as NOW!

Los Angeles – In what has to be somewhat of a surprise, the Dodgers made two major announcements today.  The first announcement has to do with the divorce proceedings of Frank and Jamie McCourt who agreed to a continuance of their May hearing:

The McCourt’s announced that they have resolved their personal issues and that Jamie will keep all personal property, vehicles, art and personal items.  She also agreed to a $100,000,000.00 payment (payable over 5 years at 6% interest) from Frank McCourt, and assumes her role as CEO of the Dodgers Dream Foundation which will be funded by a $8 million a year grant from the Dodgers.  In return, Frank McCourt gets sole ownership of the Dodgers and has agreed to hire all their sons as club executives. 

Next, Ned Colletti took the dais and said that this is a big burden off the Dodgers and made the following announcement:  “The Dodgers have just completed a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Mariners, who have fallen 26 games below .500. whereby  Chris Withrow, Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert, Casey Blake and  James McDonald have been traded to the Blue Jays for Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Felix Hernandez.  Hernandez has agreed to to a six-year/$125 million deal and Lee has agreed to a 4 year/$90 mil deal.  Our lineup will look like this right now:

1. Figgins  3B
2. Furcal SS
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Martin  C
7. Loney  1B
8. DeWitt 2B

Our Rotation now looks like this as we ready for the stretch run:

Hernandez, Lee, Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda.

Colletti continued:  “With the expiring contracts of Ramirez and Kuroda, we we able to take on more payroll since the ownership issue was resolved and our lenders opened their pockets again.  If we had made all the dope-fiend moves suggested on LaDodgerTalk.com, we would have never had the flexibility to pull this off.  Sure, we gave up a lot, but we are going to win this thing!   I’m glad I listened to Mark Timmons….”

I made my plans and got my tickets yesterday for Camelback Ranch.  I will be there on March 20th through March 27th.  My wife and son will be flying in on the 25th to see the last 3 games with me.  I haven’t gotten the away game tickets, but I’ll work on that next week.  It’s going to be a great Spring Training.   Like Roger mentioned last week, there seems to be gloom and doom by lots of commenters on this board, but that is not a concept shared by most of the national media (which worries me). 

Ride Manny Ride

There is a Mini-Camp in late January at Camelback and I was going to have Rory (Badger) cover it, but after talking with Josh Rawitch, it looks like there will be no media.  Maybe Badger can rent a helicoptor and fly around taking pictures for us. 

Voldomer will be there from March 8-13 and has said that he will provide updates and photos as well.  Badger lives near there, so hopefully he can do the same.

I plan to have LA LodgerTalk T-Shirts available by the End of January – stay tuned, because they will be VERY COOL!   At a very good price I might add….

Some fans have asked which young players have the best chance of making the team.  Here’s my list (in no particular order):

• Josh Lindblom (middle relief)
• Xavier Paul  (4th OF) – This guy has a bat with a lot of pop (great “gap” power) and the best arm in the organization. 
• Carlos Monasterios  (5th Starter) – He has looked good in the Winter League
• Armando Zerpa (middle relief) – Just because he’s LH and they have to keep him or lose him.
• Brent Leach (middle relief) – We have already seen that he has good stuff… and he’s LH
• Travis Schlichting (middle relief) – See Brent Leach, but he’s not LH

Jon Link, Chin-lung Hu, Scott Elbert (who may not be rookies), Jason Repko and AJ Ellis also have a crack at making the team.

Several sources have reported that Jason Repko signed a $500,000.00 deal with the Dodgers to avaoid arbitration.   Just a few weeks ago, most bloggers were saying that he would be “non-tendered.” 

Below is the Spring Training Schedule

Here it is January already and with Spring Training right around the corner, there is very little to talk about it in Dodgerland. As we wait to see if there will be a starting pitcher fall out of a tree before Spring Training, what do we do with our Dodger time? We read what other fans are saying.

In perusing other blogs I see some who are trying to pass the time gathering nostalgic facts and living in a time when all seemed right with the Dodgers – and that time of course is “the past”.

On one site they are talking about the All Decade Dodger team, and some of the names are very interesting. Here is an update:

C: Russell Martin (68%)
1B: James Loney (62%)
2B: Jeff Kent (88%)
3B: Adrian Beltre (80%)
SS: Rafael Furcal (87%)
LF: Gary Sheffield (62%)
CF: Matt Kemp (94%)
RF: Shawn Green (79%)
LH starter: Clayton Kershaw (56%)
RH starter: Kevin Brown (42%)
LH reliever: Hong-Chih Kuo (57%)
RH reliever: Paul Quantrill

Beltre with one good year leads the list of 3rd baseman, which I find sadly revealing.  Jeff Kent? Please.  Loney, Kemp, Martin and Kershaw are ours, as is Kuo. Hopefully they will be around for their prime years. But looking at that list of overpaid hired guns (some were very unlikeable with nasty temperments) makes me rather pensive and I find myself longing for the years when I knew who my team was and I actually liked them.

The Garvey, Lopes, Russell, Cey era was a good one. Yeager, John, and Sutton. Hooten didn’t come up with the Dodgers but was with them ten years. I remember when Valenzuela came up as a 20 year old and blew people away. That was fun. Pedro Guererro was an odd duck, but he could sure hit. From ‘79 through ‘96 the Dodgers had 9 Rookie of the Year Awards, with 4 in a row and 5 in row during that period. We haven’t had one since, and it doesn’t look like we will have one any time soon. Hershiser had some magic in him. Shaun Green was likeable, but wasn’t worth the money. Mike Piazza was a Dodger favorite, until he was traded because he wanted $100 million. We then turned around and gave $105 million to Kevin Brown. Kevin Brown. Surly prima donna. Yuck.

I am beginning to sound a bit like Andy Rooney here.

So, I put together my favorite All L.A. Dodger Team. I started following them as a 5th grader in ‘59. Some of these picks may date me, and I am partial to the O’Malley ownership years. Good memories, falling asleep on warm summer nights in Canoga Park listening to Vin Scully and Jerry Doggett on my turquoise Admiral radio. Those were good years.

• 1b Gil Hodges (I saw the end of his career, but he was a class act)
• 2b Davey Lopes (Charlie Neal a close second)
• SS Maury Wills (had dinner with him in Palm Springs and he is a great guy)
• 3bRon Cey
• OF Wally Moon (still love those Moon shots)
• OFDuke Snider (met him at his restaurant in Fallbrook. Nice man)
• OF Tommy Davis (I met him at a clinic and learned a lot from him)
• OFReggie Smith
• C   Mike Piazza (Johnny Roseboro a close second)
• SP Sandy Koufax
• SP Fernando Valenzuela
• SP Don Sutton
• SP Don Drysdale
• SPOrel Hershisher
• RRPEric Gagne
• LRPRon Perranoski

Feel free to disagree.

I hope the Dodgers can rediscover what it was that made them great over the years. I believe the current owner is well intended and that is a good thing. But intentions and results don’t always match up. I miss the O’Malley years.

Last off-season, I predicted that it would not be Manny who made the team better, but rather “the kids.” 

Little did I know what would happen to Manny and how he would later struggle.  If the Manny Ramirez of 2008 had played in 2009, the Dodgers might still be shaking the confetti out of their shoes, because the kids made huge strides. 

Well, some did (Kershaw, Kemp, Ethier), some stayed the same (Loney, Broxton) and some regressed (Martin and Billingsley).  I am here to once again submit that Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson would not make us World Series Champs in 2010, but again, it on the kids – Kemp and Loney and Kershaw have to keep marching toward greatness.  Billingsley and Martin have to return to form and Broxton and Loney need to crank it up another notch. 

I believe we have at least four good starting pitchers on our team, but what might win it for us is a late spring or trade deadline deal.  Come July, we may have to decide if we want to trade Chris Withrow, Ivan DeJesus, Jr.  and Andrew Lambo for someones Ace!  Of course, that depends upon a lot of factors, including how those players are doing, but we have the horses to do a deal. 

The Dodgers didn’t want to pay Randy Wolf, who is a guy who averages 148 IP  a year and has a career 4.13 ERA, a long-term deal and they didn’t want to get stuck paying him even $9 mil a year.  There were time last year when Randy Wolf was our best pitcher, but in 2010, he could just as easily be our #5 or worse yet, injured!  If Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda and Haeger can pitch 800 innings, Randy Wolf will be a distant memory.

The Mets who are intent on spending money, recently had their GM recently say that their starting rotation would be Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and Jonathon Niese.  Santana has arm issues and the rest hardly strike fear into anyone’s hearts.  I think WE can do better, by standing pat for the time being.  Dodger fans are crying “Wolf” but come July, they may find they have been out-foxed!  Sometimes the best moves you make are the ones you don’t. 

MORE NEWS:

Interesting List of Top Dodger Prospects by John Sickels.  Here’s a quote from the post:

The Dodgers are strong on the pitching side: Martin and Miller could both be B+ guys a year from now, maybe even an A- if their command really sharpens up. Withrow could rank as the number one prospect ahead of Dee Gordon if you prefer pitching to hitting. His ceiling is terrific, although I’d like to see his walk rate come down. He has Homer Bailey-like risk if they rush him too fast. Elbert’s stuff is right up there with the other pitchers, but there are enough chinks in his armor (command, health history) to keep his grade slightly lower in my mind. I’m probably higher on Gould than some folks, but I see him in the same mold as the others if he develops properly. Other live arms such as Jansen, Eovaldi, Webster, and Wallach all have significant potential but enough doubts or lack of data right now to keep their ratings in the C+ range.

The hitters are led by the electric Dee Gordon, who will need some time to put his game together but has big upside. Possible comp: Rafael Furcal, circa 2000-2006. DeJesus doesn’t have the same ceiling but still has a chance to be a very useful player if his leg is OK. I haven’t given up on Lambo yet, not at age 21.

The hitting in beyond that is thin: there is a mixture of tools guys and polish guys, but they all have questionmarks of one sort of another. Adding some additional impact hitting depth for the system seems like a good idea; we’ll have to see if they address that in the 2010 draft.

Trades and graduations have thinned the system out, but overall I think Logan White and his staff do a fine job and the potential for a quick recharge seems good to me.

ESPN Los Angeles has a good interview with Clayton Kershaw today.  Here’s the transcript:

ESPN Los Angeles

By the way, this is Tony Jackson’s new home:

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/columns/archive?name=tony-jackson

It’s good to see him back on the beat!

ESPN Los Angeles has lots of good stuff – I’ll have a link to it on the home page soon.

Los Angeles, CA- Going into the 2010 season, who knew that Clayton Kershaw would have his breakout season in 2010?  The unassuming, mild-mannered Texas kid is a solid condidate for the Cy Young Award with his 21-8 record and 3.09 ERA.  Chad Billingsley figures to get a few votes along with Jon Broxton.  Billingsley with his 18-12 record and 3.34 ERA rebounded nicely from an up and down 2009.  His 234 Innings Pitched led the Dodgers.   Jon Broxton was lights-out all season after mastering the change-up, and had 57 saves to go with his 1.97 ERA.   Clayton Kershaw was the leader of a Dodgers staff which had 4 starters with 10 or more wins:  Kershaw with 21, Billingsley with 18, Kuroda with 15 and Haeger with 12.  Scott Elbert finished with 9 wins. 

As a side note, James McDonald, Josh Lindblom, Hong-chih Kuo and Ronnald Belisario joined Jon Broxton as the only bullpen history with an ERA below 2.00.

… and then I woke up!

Over the past several weeks, I have seen the McCourt Saga gather momentum, like a rock rolling down a hill.  While the divorce is nasty and ugly, a lot of mis-information exists.  It starts with “McCourt might have to sell the team” (a possibility) to “McCourt has to sell the team” to “we want a new owner” to “McCourt won’t spend the money for young players” to “the young players will leave” to “McCourt will sell them off” to “Logan White and the coaches will leave” to “no player will want to play for the Dodgers.”  These are the ramblings of an overactive imagination.  There are several facts of which we can be sure:

1. The Courts are divorcing;
2. A hearing is scheduled for May to determine the ownership of the team – it is likely that it will not be decided until June or even later, depending upon many unknown factors;
3. The Dodgers have been cash strapped as they have been leveraged since McCourt bought the team;
4. This makes the Dodgers even more strapped for cash;
5. The payroll probably CANNOT go much above $100,000,000; and
6. At some point the Dodgers will solely be the property of Frank McCourt or they will be ruled as community property of the divorce.

That’s ALL we know.  You can think and imagine and conjecture, but that is all we KNOW!   You can assume the worst, if you are inclined to make yourself miserable, or you can face reality, which is listed above.  Every legal case is different.  Certain precedents may or may not apply in this case, as we do not have all the facts.  A $100 million payroll is not what any of us expect, but in any business,  certain years bring differing budget needs.  The Dodgers will still be in the TOP Thirty Percent in Baseball Payroll.  They are not the Padres.  Now, I would be unhappy if this were to go on forever, but all indications are that we can compete with a $100 million payroll THIS year. 

Also think about this:  The Boston RedSox had a payroll of $122.6 mil last year, while the Dodgers payroll was $109.1 mil.  So, the RedSox had $13.1 mil MORE payroll than the Dodgers, yet their income was about $30 mil more than the Dodgers!  When you consider that, the Dodgers payroll doesn’t look so bad.  Why doesn’t anyone bash John Henry for not spending more money?  If you put things into perspective,  it looks a lot different.  The sky is not falling and the end is not near!

Come June or July, if ownership of the Dodgers stays with Frank McCourt, then within a year or so, the payroll will creep back up and climb when a new cable deal is implemented.  If ownership is determined to be community property, then in all likelihood, the Dodgers will have to be sold.  Frank  McCourt  is reported to be working on developing land around Chavez Ravine, and I would guess he is also working on “Stadium Naming Rights.“  What role that will play in the divorce remains to be seen.  I have NO OPINION as to what the Court will do.  One can NEVER predict the outcome without all the facts and both sides are sandbagging and stalling discovery.  It is possible that this trial will not be held until after the season. 

You should also know this:  If the team is adjudicated to be “joint property” and has to be sold, it will be worth much more if it is a viable concern and making money with good revenue streams.  Selling players and doing what many of you predict will not happen because both Frank and Jamie would end up with much less money and both are too greedy to do that.  If ownership of the team is awarded to both parties, then the odds are it will be sold – hopefully to someone with deeper pockets who does not have to pay for debt service out of operating income.  Even at that, it is not inevitable that the team will be sold – however I would expect that as long as the front office remains a strength (and it is), the Dodgers will do just fine.

Our prospects are still bright and we have a plethora of good young arms, led by Billingsley and Kershaw.  Not all will make it, but we only need a few to make it, and within this group are some outstanding prospects:

• Haegar
• Troncoso
• Elbert
• McDonald
• Martin
• Eovaldi
• Miller
• Withrow
• Lindblom
• Webster
• Guerra
• Redding
• Jansen
• Schlichting
• Leach

As many as eight on that above list could see time with the big club this year.  A real dark-horse who could grab a spot in the rotation is Josh Lindblom.  He will be 23 years-old next season, and while he has little starting experience, his 6′ 5″ – 240 lb. frame is what you would pick to be an ideal starter.    I think he would be “lights-out” in the pen, but he will be given an opportunity to start, along with Haegar, Elbert and possibly Troncoso.

Cheer up!  We are not rooting for the Padres!

It’s no secret that the McCourts are in the midst of a messy divorce, but would things be any different if Frank and Jamie were still together?

Would that have caused the Dodgers to offer arbitration to Randy Wolf and/or Orlando Hudson?  Would that have caused the Dodgers to sign Wolf?  Well, no one can be sure, but do you really want 3 years of Randy Wolf?  I mean, two years ago and even last year, many of you didn’t want him back. 

Yeah, the Randy Wolf of 2009 was pretty nice, so nice that he earned the Type A Free Agent Rating, but what are the odds that he stays healthy or continues his level of success in 2010, 2011 and 2012?  I would say the odds are not good.  That’s just my opinion, but I don’t see him as a workhorse.  I do see a guy who could say that he was a Type A Free Agent who had better stats that D-Lowe, and D-Lowe makes $15 mil a year.  That was the most that Wolf stood to make – $15 mil a year, but if he would have asked for, say $13 million a year, he would have had a decent shot at it, especially if the Dodgers offered less than $10 million. 

You might say that the Brewers offered him about $30 mil over 3 years, but what makes you so sure they would have offered the contract if they had to give up compensation?  You don’t know, and there is no way to ever know, but it’s circular thinking to think it would have happened the same way.   I think the Dodgers decided (change that – I know that the Dodgers decided that they did not want to give Randy Wolf a multi-year deal in the $10 mil per year range and they felt he would accept arbitration because (1) he knew he could get $11-15 mil in arbitration ($15 mil is probably too high, but maybe not); and (2) they did not want to commit to a multi-year deal with him.  This is all conjecture, but offering arbitration would have changed the whole dynamic. 

For similar reasons, Orlando Hudson, who did not want to come back to LA, would have jumped at a chance for a $10 million payday.  He was an All-Star and Gold Glove 2B on multiple occasions, and again – a case could be made that he could command up to $10 million a year.  Likely?  MAYBE NOT, BUT POSSIBLE!   It is an extreme example, but it’s possible that the Dodgers could have had 25% of their $100 million payroll tied up with two players.  Again, it may not have been likely, but it was a scenario that the Dodgers had to consider as possible.  If that had happened it would have crippled the Dodgers ability give raises to their youngsters.

Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson made us better in 2009, but I have reason to believe that one of our youngsters can step in and fill their shoes.   McDonald, Troncoso, Elbert, Lindblom and Haeger are in the mix for the first 2 spots behind Billingsley, Kershaw and Kuroda.  Again, come July, more arms will be on the market at a cheaper price.  I see nothing wrong with trying the youngsters and then shopping in July, if necessary.  Should Ned tell you that?  Why play your cards?  This team is going to be very good next year, if only because our players are another year older and more mature.  Blake DeWitt is a “Ballplayer” at 2B, and I would not even sniff at Belliard or Carroll, unless it’s as a utility-man.

Manny Ramirez will also be playing for a new contract and I think he will return with a vengeance.  I also don’t see the Dodgers buying-down Pierre’s contract.  They will keep him or trade him for a pitcher with a “bad contract.”  I still hope for Harang (because I think he has a higher upside than Arroyo), but who knows?  The Dodgers still need bench help, but we already have Xavier Paul, Jason Repko, Juan Pierre and Chin-lung Hu.  Brad Ausmus is a strong possibility again,  and so all we need is another RH infield bat – not Craig Counsell who is LH.

So, back to the question first propounded – would things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  I can’t answer that, but I will ask, should things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  This is a business and is it prudent to sign players like Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones or, for that matter, Manny Ramirez?  I say no.  I am on record this time last year as saying the Dodgers should not sign Manny (something for which I was castigated), but Manny was mostly a “non-factor.”  Go after “Blue Chip” Players, not “cow chip” players.  If we had went after C.C. Sabathia instead of Manny, we would be talking right now about Hudson or Wolf, and we might have won the Series last year. 

I say that when it comes to Free Agents – Go BIG or Stay Home!  Think about it!  There are no “BIG” ones this year, so we should stay home.  Quit trying to “make a silk purse out of a sows ear.”  So, if you are one of the naysayers who say “The Dodgers Won’t Win With The Pitchers They Have,”  You are probably the same ones who told me the Dodgers wouldn’t win without Manny. They didn’t win WITH him.

The Baseball Winter Meetings are being held in Indianapolis beginning on Monday, December 7th thru Thursday, December 10th.  While MLB would not issue me a credential, I will be there and hopefully get lucky.   The only thing that credentials really do is get you inside the interview room when there are news conferences. I can still walk all over the hotel where everything is going on without a problem and report on all that’s going on. Usually, agents or GMs just stop in the hallways and talk to people and I will be right there.  I have one purpose at these meetings – I would like to get a feel of what is really happening with the Dodgers… and I will! 

Ken made a good point yesterday that maybe the Dodgers had a verbal agreement with Wolf and Hudson that they would not offer them arbitration.  That could be a possibility.  I’ll try and find out.  Besides, who should the Dodgers really try and get?   Halladay?  Lackey?  Martinez?  Wolf?  It would take a lot to get Lackey or Halladay and either one is a prospect for arm and/or injury issues.  I am almost of the opinion that we sign Padilla andor Wolf IFthe market is soft and they don’t get better deals elsewhere.  Then, try and get some pitchers line Noach Lowery, Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, et al for insurance.

I’d sooner see the Dodgers get a power hitter for 2B than spend to get Halladay or Lackey.  I may be crazy, but I would not be afraid to go into the season with Kershaw our #1, Billingsley and Kuroda battling for #2 and Haeger as our #5.  Then, let Elbert, McDonald, Troncoso, Lindblom and other battle for the #4 spot.  Something good will come out of that bunch.  You have to bank on internal growth by your young players.  Shoot, I wouldn’t mind a platoon of Jamie Carroll and Blake DeWitt at 2B or maybe try Adrian Beltre at 2B – he’s an excellent athlete.  Think about it!  We’d have power at the position.

I am most concerned about locking up Kemp, Ethier, Kersahw and Billingsley long term.  Are the Dodgers willing to do that?  We have a plethora of pitching prospects who are a yera or so away – trading for a vet who could have arms issue is felony stupid – witness the Jason Schmidt Debacle.

At any rate, I’ll be at the meeting and I’ll be reporting what I see and hear – or maybe I’ll report half of what I see and none of what I hear…

Answer:  One is a bottom-dwelling garbage-eater and the other is a fish!

There's Something Fishy Here!

Get used to it.  The Dodgers are now officially bottom-dwelling, garbage-eaters.  They love to eat up cheap, journeyman-like players who may not have much upside but are cheap, cheap, cheap.  Warm bodies to stock AAA… and maybe, if a Randy Wolf or Adrian Beltre is not signed by March, the Dodgers will try to get them on the cheap as well. 

From the Class of Baseball to Bottom-Dwelling Garbage Eaters. 

Thank your Frank McCourt!

It may come as a surprise to you, I am not all gloom and doom – I actually think the Dodgers will be better in 2010 than we were in 2009.  It’s beyond that which worries me.  I don’t think that even Jamie could screw up next year.  Frank is obviously not allowing the system to be re-stocked.  Draft picks are out.  International signings?  Forget-about-it!  However,   the Dodgers will be better next year for five (5) reasons:

1. Manny is playing for a new contract.  To those who think he has lost it:  you have never been more wrong!
2. Kemp, Ethier and Loney will be a year more mature and even better than last year.
3. Russell Martin is playing for his career and his pride.  Watch for a big rebound.
4. Our young pitching will take a big stride forward next year, led by Opening Day Starter Clayton Kershaw.  Broxton may master a change up, and the real Chad Billingsley will return.
5. Experience will hold the day.

I am not saying “World Series,” but the Dodgers will be better and then, who knows what can happen. 

The only problem is that I feel like I have vomited in my mouth whenever I think of the name McCourt – talk about “acid reflux!”

Just in case you haven’t figured it out, attendance at Dodger Stadium is not the only source of income for the Dodgers.  While their have attendance has been stellar,

Hu's on the team

 most other teams  have seen substantial declines in attendance, which means that the Dodgers get a smaller cut of the gate and concessions.  It is not clear what the amount of the decline is to me, but I estimate it at around $15 to $20 million a year.  Couple that with MLB Apparel and Memorabilia sales declines and the Dodgers could be losing as much as $20 to $25 million a year in revenue as a result of the recession.  It may get better next year.  It may not.  Some teams (can you say Cincinnati Reds?) are looking to dump payroll.  The Dodgers are looking to stay level or even drop payroll.  I have an idea:

How about Juan Pierre, James McDonald, Ivan DeJesus, Jr., and Blake DeWitt to the Reds for either Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips?  Up-shoot:  The Reds save $10 mil a year and get some prospects (along with a  leadoff hitter – Dusty Baker loves Pierre) and the Dodgers spend only an extra $10 mil to get an “inning eater” pitcher and a 2B.  Next, the Dodgers should offer Hudson and Wolf arbitration, making it clear to Hudson that Phillips is the 2B, and if he won his arbitration case he’d be a backup.  Hudson would decline arbitration, but Wolf could accept.  That’s fine!

Dole out the raises to the youngsters and the Dodgers are done!  Our rotation would look something like this:

1. Kershaw
2. Billingsley
3. Kuroda
4. Arroyo/Harang
5. Wolf or Heager

Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Phillips  2B
7. Loney  1B
8. Blake 3B

I could live with that!  Harang makes $11.5 mil next year and Arroyo makes $11 mil, so pick ‘em.  You never know – they could be a dud or they could be a Godsend!  Sometimes you have to roll the dice.  Castro is headed to Philly and Hu is the logical backup infielder.  Xavier Paul, Jason Repko and Jamie Hoffman are candidates for two outfield spots.  Ausmus may or may not play for a million next year, but if he doesn’t Ellis or another bargain Free Agent will be available. 

The Dodgers should be able to field an excellent team for under (or around) $100 million.  Harang and Arroyo’s average years are not what I expect.  I would hope for a “carrer year” for whichever one come to LA.  You gotta’ believe!  The “kids” will be year better next and Martin and Loney will “breakout.”  Believe it!

GoodNews/BadNews:

• Bud Selig will be commissioner at least 3 more seasons.
• The Marlins are shopping Josh Johnson… Hummmmmm, I may have to revise my thinking…

It turns out that the Dodgers have 34 minor league free agents, which is more than any other team.  What does that mean?  Does it mean that our farm system is depleted?  Well, we did trade away a few prospects (Santana, Bell, Johnson, Young, LaRoche, Meloan, et al), but the biggest culprit of why we have so many older “career minor leaguers” is simply our success.  In a 2 or 3 year period of time, we had so many players graduate from the farm to the big club that we needed a few “placeholders” – guys like Chick, Choi, Strickland, Maza, Luna and Brown.  Just think about it.  We have promoted Martin, Kemp, Ethier, Loney, DeWitt, Billingsley, Broxton, Kershaw, Troncoso, Kuo and others.  I don’t think the farms is gutted – it’s just that we have a lot of lower level prospects, who will start moving up next year.  Anyway, here’s the list (below), and we will lose some of these guys, but some will be back.  Frankly, I can’t see any occupying a roster spot.  It may mean Goodbye to Greg Miller.  Maybe he needs a new start and with his “live” arm, someone will give him a shot. Read the full story

If you have a home which is worth $400,000 or $400,000,000 and you are served divorce papers by your spouse,  what do you do?  It’s obvious that a great part of the parties’ net worth is that asset.  Some people are idiots about this – some have even burned-down the house rather than split the proceeds.  Are the McCourts that stupid?  I doubt it.  Both appear to be greedy, self-absorbed, high-achievement people whom I think  want to maximize their investments.  What should they do?    The biggest asset I think is the Dodgers.  They have to keep that asset shiny and new – to make money now and to make the asset continue to appreciate.  That’s why I think they will “Paint the House, not Blow-Up the House!  We might not have a $120 million payroll, but it won’t be $75 million either!

SECOND BASE- I think that the Dodger Brass has identified 2B as a position that needs a power upgrade.  Casey Blake is not a Big HR Hitter at 3B, Raffy isn’t at SS, Loney currently is not a power hitter at 1B, and Martin is not a HR hitter at C.  Our only power is in the outfield.   I think many people believe the Dodgers “stuck it to” Orlando Hudson so as not to have to pay him.  If it had been $3 million, I’d buy it, but $10,000 or $190,000 (which is actually closer) is “chump change.”  I think Joe Torre played Belliard in the playoffs (which didn’t count on O-Dog’s incentives) so they would have more power.  I believe that’s the long and short of it, which brings me to what they will do at 2B next year.  Read the full story

The Dodgers have improved over 2008.   They won more games, but they still couldn’t get past the Phillies, and the Phillies will still be good next year.  I suspect that Raul Ibanez had his career year and will slip back to reality next year and the Phillies will have some holes to fill, just like the Dodgers.  Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have a former ace who needs to come back and I believe both will.  It would not surprise me to see either one win a Cy Young Award in the future, even as easly as next year.  I fully expect Hamels and Billingsley to both win 16-18 games next year.  Both pitchers have too much talent.

Manny will return as Manny, because he’s playingfor Manny,  and the Dodgers should benefit from his quest for a new contract, in what will certainly be his last year as a Dodger.  Look for Manny to hit .320+ with 35 HR and 130 RBI.  I look for more growth by Kemp and Ethier as both become perennialAll-Stars.   Russ Martin?  He’ll be back with a vengeance!  Count on it!    I do see two areas in which the Dodgers need to improve:  They need more power from 3B and 1B and they will get it from James Loney at 1B, who I believe will hit around 25 dingers.  He has shown he is capable.  3B is another issue.  Casey Blake had a better year than I expected, but he’s still a journeyman at best.   We need a big HR bat at 3B and will will get robbed if we try and trade or one.  Here’s what we do:  Sign Adrian Beltre!  Sign Adrian Beltre.   He loves LA and is a cinch to hit 30 for the Dodgers.  Yeah, I know you don’t believe me, but he will!    If you want to look at stats, then I’ll use the year he hit 48 HR as a stat!  He’s young enough that we can sign him to a 5 year deal.   That means we need to dump Blake, and we can do that in a deal for Roy Halliday. I purpose that we trade Jon Broxton, Casey Blake, James McDonald, Ethan Martin,  and Chris Withrow to Toronto for Roy Halliday (pay a lot, get a lot).  I am not a Blake hater, but we need to get younger and better at 3B! Read the full story