Jared Massey and I were both at Blogger Night in LA on Monday Night and during the six plus hours at Dodger Stadium we gained a lot of insight into the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers.  So,

Ned Colletti chatting with us stinkin'bloggers

here is some of what we have learned:

Ned Colletti spoke with us for nearly an hour and was forthright, honest, never-hedging questions and downright frank.  He answered every question and gave Dodger fans some reasons to believe.  Here’s some of what he said:

• Ned Colletti admitted that during his Dodger tenure, he’s made good and bad deals and said that in the beginning he tried too hard to make things happen, which resulted in bad deals.   He showed me that he can be critical of himself and look at things with a rational and scientific mind.
• Is he worried about Russ Martin?  Yes, but it’s not for a lack of trying – he’s still one of the hardest workers on the team (Vicente Padilla is another).
• Jerry Sands – “Professional approach and great leadership.”  Cautious, yet very optimistic!
• Ned expects James McDonald to get back into the swing of things, and has not ruled him being a starter. It is natural for McDonald at this stage to be working on his pitch consistency and Ned likened him to Eric Gagne in this respect.
• John Ely – Ned Colletti shared a story of discussing options with Juan Pierre after the 2009 season. Colletti’s relationship with Ely’s college coach at Miami gave him confidence in Ely as part of the deal. Colletti had great things to say about Ely; he likes how he competes and “how his thought process adapts mid-game.” Colletti also gave Ely a lot of credit for his start at Wrigley Field, especially being a native Chicago boy and having the hometown pressure, but he was cautious about not reading too much into Ely’s early success and recent lack of it.  Personally, I think Ely is AAA bound.
• Blake DeWtt – Ned appreciates  how hard Blake works. He talked about DeWitt being a great guy to be on the team for his character, and Ned values character, which brings me to…
• Garret Anderson, who according to Colletti, still has a lot of value to the club and “can be a threat.” This is the part where I thought Ned was high on drugs. Put down the crack pipe, Ned!
• Xavier Paul has a lot of potential and his call-up hinges on Manny Ramirez’ status.  Ned talked about  how challenging it is to try to refine and advance a players’s development at the major league level.
  

  Ron Cey and Jared - Jared doesn't even remember him...

• Matt Kemp – he liked how Kemp’s positive results the last couple of games.  Not mentioning Kemp in particular, he did say how difficult this game is to play, and how the Hall-of-Fame Players that he has seen have had to keep working at it diligently even when they’re at the top of their game, and mentioned how particularly difficult that is to do in baseball.
• Ned emphatically stated that he Dodgers are very determined to sign Zach Lee, and he said it was a challenge to have their first pick in the draft so low in the order, which is why the Dodgers took a chance on him.  He was Top 10 or Top 5 Talent and due to the Dodgers winning ways, they generally don’t pick so high, so Lee was worth the risk.  I got the feeling from Ned that the Dodgers were willing to pay 3 to 4 million for Lee, maybe more!
• Ned said that he is also looking for relief pitching, but that it is is so volatile, it’s hard to find quality relievers at the trade deadline.
• George Sherrill? Ned has no clue why he is struggling (I told you to trade him, Ned).  When asked if Sherill had been asked to go to the minors, Ned paused, long enough to let us know that the Dodgers had asked him and he had refused!  When asked that, Ned didn’t deny it.
• Colletti thinks the time off for Ramon Troncoso will help him work out the kinks in some of his pitches.  He said that his sinker wasn’t sinking.
• He talked about how the Vicente Padilla deal happened and how it involved personal face-to-face contact regarding Padilla’s reputation prior to joining the Dodgers. Colletti appreciates how Padilla has been “a model citizen” for the team.  He said that Padilla promised he would not be a problem (he did not promise that he wouldn’t shoot himself in the foot, however).
• Scott Elbert – He hopes he comes back and fixes whatever was eating him.
• Ned is acting like he will be able to take on payroll if the right opportunity presents itself (which I have been saying all along).
• Ned says that Josh Lindblom’s velocity is down, and they have no clue why.  By the way, I have observed that Jon Broxton’s velocity is also down.  Hummmm….
• Ned recounted his first “disagreement” with Joe Torre.  When Ned had first brought Clayton Kershaw up (because the coaches “begged” for it), Ned told Joe that he needed to be handled with kid gloves.  One particular game, Joe left him in and brought him out in the 8th inning, during which Clayton had problems and was ultimately removed.  Ned said he bit his tongue until he got home and asked Joe “can you explain your thought process in bringing Clayton back for the 8th inning?”  To which Joe, said “I get it boss.  I get it!“
• I also talked to another Dodger employee who said that he was convinced (through conversations with common friends) that Randy Wolf would have “almost certainly” accepted arbitration and would have probably gotten around $12 mil (their number, not mine) and that if Wolf  had accepted arbitration, he could have offered the Dodgers a two year deal in the $18 to $20 mil range.  He also went on to say that the Dodgers felt Wolf had his career year and was not worth that.  He acknowledged that O-Dog was not as likely to have accepted arbitration, but that Ned says “When you OFFER arbitration, you had better be prepared to PAY it.”  It’s easy to say the Dodgers should have offered arbitration to Hudson, but IT’S NOT YOUR MONEY!  IT’S EASY TO SPEND OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY!  He also said that Wolf is miserable in Milwaukee…
  

  Ron and I comparing notes on our hip replacements

All-in-all, this was the best blogger night ever. The Dodgers had Roy Cey, Lou Johnson, Kim Ng, Dennis Mannion, Josh Rawitch, Ned Colletti, the High-Life Man and others drop by the suite for conversation.  Mannion was as engaged as he was engaging.  Josh Rawitch did an awesome job in putting this together and you have to give him credit for being way ahead of the curve by getting bloggers involved.

I left feeling that the Dodgers are in good hands with Ned Colletti as GM.  Some talk about Kim Ng and Logan White being GM’s, and while they may or may not ever become one, Ned is the consummate professional in this respect.  He delegates, is through, thoughtful, scientific, personally probing and level-headed – perfect for a GM!  He admits to learning from his mistakes and is not eager to repeat them.  What more can you ask?

Eleven Things That Will Happen  in the Second Half

1. I expect the Dodgers to acquire an arm.  They didn’t have that hitter to get  Cliff Lee that the Rangers did.  Oswalt is still a possibility…. However, Ned plays his cards close to the vest.  Speculation who the Dodgers will get is just that – speculation.  I do predict that they will get a top-of-the-rotation starter.
2. Manny will get hot and carry the team for a spell.  I think Joe will “ease” him back in.
3. Ace?  Clayton Kershaw is just improving little-by-little EVERY start.  Joe is about ready to anoint him the ace.  Clayton will step into the #1 spot after the All-Star Break.  It will be Kershaw, Kuroda, Billingsley and Padilla.  All Ned has to do is find a Number 2 or Number 3, but Oswalt would do too.
4. Ely will return to AAA.  Classic case of the league catching up to him.
5. Rafael Furcal will continue his hot ways.  He only needs a handful of at-bats to qualify for the lead in the batting average race.  He looks like the Young Raffy!  He is the Dodgers spark plug.  It was good to see him make the All-Star team and he deserved it over Reyes anyway.
6. George Cheryl will be given a few more weeks, but the Dodgers can’t continue to ride a limping horse.  At some point, that horse will have to be “put-down” if it can’t recover.
7. Brad Ausmus will be back and play a large role off the bench, both as a backup to Martin and a pinch hitter.
8. Garrett Anderson will have to be replaced by Xavier Paul.  Jon Weisman made an excellent case why Paul is the better choice and why AAA does nothing for him.  By the way, how about the play where Paul threw to the cutoff man and got the runner at the plate?  Good block by AJ too!  AJ is who we thought he was – a .214 hitter.
9. Look for a hot streak by both Ethier and Kemp.  Kemp is climbing out of the doghouse and is slowly getting his act together.
10. The surprise of the second half will be Vicente Padilla, who has some of the best stuff in all of baseball.   I still think this team will win 94-95 games.
11. The pitching will become rock-solid the second half.  Write it down.  You may see some new faces:  McDonald, Troncoso will be back and maybe a pitcher or two acquired by way of trade.  Cheryl and Miller and Ely will likely be gone soon.

I used to call him “Mr. Softee” because he often got hits which padded his stats but didn’t mean much.  He’d hit a home run when the Dodgers were ahead by 5 runs or behind by 6, but he didn’t deliver in the clutch.  I sensed that he could do so much better, so I hung the moniker “Mr. Softee” on him.  Well, Andre Ethier has put that nickname to rest.  It was dead and buried long ago, but now he has taken his game to a whole new plateau.   He’s on pace to hit .371, with 62 HR and 185 RBI (that would probably win him the Triple Crown, right?).  He’s OPS’ing 1.162 and has only struck out 11 times all year.  Guys like Mark Reynolds strike out 11 times in two games!  Andre Ethier will no longer be called “Andre.”  Henceforth, he is to be addressed as “Walkoff” Ethier or “Mr. Walkoff” to you.  While I don’t expect him to keep up that pace, I did say that he might hit 40 one year and this could be that year.

John Ely deserved to win last night.  He looked poised and in command and I love his intensity.  He looks like he could be a nice “back-of-the-rotation” starter.  See, Juan Pierre wasn’t worthless… and if Jon Link pans out, well all the better!  Before the game, the Dodgers had indicated that Ely was going to be sent down when Jeff Weaver was activated this weekend, but Weaver and Ortiz are the same guy and Ortiz is plain awful.  Ned and Joe would be ignorant savages to send Ely down and keep Weaver AND Ortiz.  After the way Ely pitched last night, that’s a no-brainer.  Let’s hope that Joe and Ned have not taken leave of their senses.

Rants & Raves:

• Maybe Charlie Haeger will turn it around at the last minute, before he is demoted.  I’m surprised Joe is giving him another shot, but he deserved it after his last relief appearance.  This one will determine his fate.
• Manny will be back soon and regardless of whether you think Xavier Paul needs to bat everyday, you should always put the best team on the field and Paul is flat-0ut better than Anderson – IN EVERY WAY!
• Raffy looks ready for a rehab game or two. He should be back next week.
• In case no one noticed, Russ Martin has settled back in as .250 hitter.
• Jon Broxton needs to pitch at a minimum of every 2-3 days Joe.  Write that down on your hand in a black Sharpie so that you don’t forget again.    I call Brox out when he blows one and it’s his fault.  This one was Joe’s fault!

Pitchers and Catchers report on February 2o, 2010 and the first workout is February 21, 2010, so I am going to take a few days off.  I’ll be back on the 20th or 21st. 

I’ll leave you with a few things to cuss and discuss:

• Is it possible that the Combination of Reed Johnson and Brian Giles will be even better than Juan Pierre last year?  Think about that one really hard.
• Why can’t a guy who hit over .300 for the first two months of 2008 and is in his 6th professional season make the transition to everyday 2B?  Think about this:  9 trips!  That has to have an effect, but also serves to help you grow up real quick.  Is it possible we will see the 2008 April and May Blake DeWitt all year?
• Jamey Carroll can play every infield position and every outfield position (he hasn’t played SS for a couple of years, but he can in an emergency) and hits nearly .350 as a pinch hiiter.  Do you think he might have some value? 
• Could this be THE year Kuroda is injury-free (remember, it’s not his arm that has been the problem)?
• Does anyone in their right mind think that sometime  between September 2008 and August 2009, Manny Ramirez just “lost it?’   OR, is it possible you could see him be a beast in the least year of his contract?
• What are the chances in July or August that a team who (1) loses a closer to injury, or (2)  has a closer who is not getting the job done, elects to trade for Ronnie Belisario and/or George Sherrill?
• The Dodgers will have a shuttle to and from Albaquacky (I can’t spell Albuquerque) all year -especially for the pitching staff.  At any given time, we could have Troncoso,  Wade, Schlichting, Leach, Lindblom, Miller and Felix there at any given minute.  Expect to see a lot of movement to and from there.
• DARKHORSE:  Ivan DeJesus, Jr. – Could he “sieze the day at 2B?s  Brian Barton (who?) – You never know!!!
• Charles Haeger is out of options and so is Eric Stults.  If, for no other reason than that, they will be given a shot at being the #5.   Because of that, I think Scott Elbert starts the year at AAA.  James McDonald might end up back in AAA so that he can start as well, but I think he’ll play out better as a reliever.  We’ll see.
• Could it be that the Dodgers won’t have a  true SS as a backup this year?  Carroll could well be the emergency SS and Hu and Green would only be a cab ride away. 
• There’s a real chance Amezaga won’t play this year.
• I think the Dodgers will go with 11 pitchers in April.
• Belliard is not a lock to make the team!

This could be your Opening Day Lineup & Roster:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Ethier  RF
5. Manny  LF
6. Loney  1B
7. Blake  3B
8. DeWitt  2B
9. Billingsley  P

Reserves:

1. Carroll
2. Belliard or Doug M ( I can’t spell Mientkiewicz)
3. Giles
4. Johnson
5. Ausmus

Pitchers:

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Haeger
6. Stults
7. Kuo
8. Sherrill
9. Belisario
10. Troncoso
11. Broxton

I’ll be in Carmelback from March 20-27, 2010.  See you there.

Carry on!

… and nothing but the truth!  That’s why you come here, because I am going to tell you the truth.  God knows it’s not because I’m a writer.  At any rate, let’s consider the following and see if what is happening is true or false.

True or False:  Ned Colletti, Frank McCourt and Dennis Mannion have all been “singing out of the same hymnbook” that it’s business as usual for the Dodgers”?

Answer:  True and False!    It’s true that it is “business as usual,” but the “business model” has been changed, so that’s false.  Let me explain.  Ned has made some acquisitions the past few years which have not proven to be (how should I say it?) prudent (how’s that?).   Now, under some circumstances, he might be fired, but not in this case because Frank McCourt, as the new owner of the Dodgers was trying to make an impact and the signings of Pierre (I love Juan Pierre, but he was a bad signing),  Schmidt, Jones and Manny were all approved  (or even “pushed”) by Frank.  So, Ned does not bear all the culpability for those bad deals, and Frank and Ned have come to an understanding:  Frank will be an owner and Ned will be the GM.  Frank has also assured Ned that if he needs more funds to sign a player, he can feel free to come to Frank for more money.  Frank wants to keep the payroll at around $100,000,000 this year, but after the May hearing, he will have a better idea if the Dodgers can be buyers in August and he thinks they can. 

The truth is that the Dodgers have a very good team this year. Maybe it has escaped some of you, but they have some extremely good young players who have gotten better (much better) the past three years.  Even our oft-maligned catcher is rated 4th to 7th in most Fantasy Leagues.  If you can’t have Joe Mauer, the 4th to 7th best Catcher ain’t so bad!   We have some young pitchers who are suddenly just going to “get it.”  BANG!  Our aces-in-waiting will become our aces.  None of  this is lost on savvy baseball people, but it is lost on some of you. 

Forget the TOP 100 or TOP 50 Baseball Prospects.  Ethan Martin is in the Top 50, but I think we have 4 or 5 others who are better than him- Aaron Miller, Chris Withrow, Garrett Gould, Josh Lindblom, Alan Webster and Nate Eavoldi may be among them.   Think Andrew Lambo’s stock has dropped?  Keep thinking that!  Watch him rake this year.  Dee Gordon?  This kid has “star”written all over him! 

What about the big club?  Why did we sign Jamey Carroll only to sign Ronnie Belliard a few weeks later?  Simple – Ned had to make sure we had a veteran second-baseman, and Lopez, Belliard and Hudson were asking Big Bux.  Ned signed Jamey to make sure he had a fallback plan. Plan A is to give Blake DeWitt the opportunity to win the job (forget his season last year, as he bounced around like a yo-yo from the Ravine to Albaquacky 9 times).  The year before, he hit over .300 for 2 months and he has some decent power.  Unless he tanks, the job is his.  Carroll will be a “Dave Hansen Type” Pinch Hitter and Belly will be Belly. 

You naysayers are in for a surprise.  This team isn’t just “good”  – IT’S VERY GOOD! 

Dodger fans – you are in for the ride of your life, and in August, the Dodgers will probably be buyers because they haven’t blown their budget. 

 Like Dave Ramsey says “Live like no one else now, so you can live like no one else later.”

After changing his GM horse, and his approach to owning a Major League baseball team, it seemed that Frank McCourt was finally getting to a point that he understood what it takes to consistently put a competitive team on the field. His first choice of GM, Paul DePodesta, suggested that it was a moneyball approach in which he believed. OK, I can live with that. But then after less than two years with this strategy, he dumped the plan and went with a Sabean approach – old vets with a history of success.  At least during this period of self discovery, Frank did not go “all in” by selling the farm. We have our own on the field, and a few left in the stable. McCourt came into this somewhat underfunded, and now with his personal life in shambles, we don’t know if he will land on both feet, and if those feet will even have shoes on them after Jamie and her lawyers are done.

As for where we stand as of this moment and to continue yesterdays thread:

I don’t put Pierre in the same category as Schmidt and Jones. Pierre was a guy who came to play everyday and without him last year, do the Dodgers get to the finish line in first place? I think not.

But H I agree with the general premise of your post. We are treading water and the reason we are is because of the mess in which our owner finds himself. I don’t think any of us are whining about it, we are just frustrated that the owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers, one of the most storied and valuable franchises in Major League Baseball, is in this precarious position.

And I have a fundamental disagreement with the idea that having money to spend, and spending it, doesn’t guarantee success.  Sure, it doesn’t guarantee a championship, but take a look at the teams that have a lot of money and compare their success to the franchises that don’t. Every now and then a team like Tampa sneaks into the fun zone of the play-offs, but the teams that always have a chance or the ones with the high payrolls. This coming year who you gonna bet on? – the Yankees, Red Sox and the Mets, or the Nationals, Pirates and Padres.

The Dodgers should be in the running every year, and frankly they have been for a couple of years now. I think if we are honest with ourselves, we knew we didn’t have the best team in the NL last year. We had a shot, and that is all fans ask for, but the Phillies are better and deserved to be there the last two years. To tell the truth, I wasn’t so confident in the series against the Cards. They had better starting pitching than we did.

Again, I am just frustrated that our owner is handcuffed. We won’t know much about the end game of this situation until June. We watch as other franchises spend the money and make the trades that improve their chances while two of our best players walk without offers or compensation for their leaving. Maddening.

Maybe it is business as usual. 

Maybe it’s really not “the divorce” that is keeping the Dodgers out of the Free Agent Market.

Maybe the Dodger brass has concluded that paying big bucks (in most cases) for Free Agents simply isn’t worth it.

The Dodgers sought a CF for a few years and signed Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones over Aaron Rowand, Gary Matthews, Jr. and Torri Hunter.  Only Hunter was a wise signing, but it didn’t get the Angels a title.  Big bucks spent on Jason Schmidt was wasted and there are lots of stories like that on the market. 

Even the money for Manny could have ben allocated better.

Maybe the Dodgers have decided that by waiting they might get a much better deal.  Maybe this was decided BEFORE the divorce.

Belliard isn’t signed – he could be a bargin.

Sheets, Padilla, Garland – all might be had for a song.  Or maybe, the Dodgers will just wait until the trade deadline and get what they want.

By the way, we got our CF from “within.” 

Sometimes, it’s best to make a list of who you want and go in that direction, instead of just settling for “who’s available!”

Of course, if the Dodgers are heading that direction, they have no obligation to tell you or me.  In fact, they would be silly to do so. 

Watch and see – I have a hunch everyone is wrong about the Dodgers!

Look, it is apparent that the Dodgers are trying to stay around $100 mil in payroll.  The Angels are not spenders either, and I would not be surprised if their payroll was lower than the Dodgers.  While attendance was good, I think that other revenue streams in LA have receded.  It apparent from the (in)activity of both teams.  Frank McCourt is sitting on a Gold Mine with all the property around Chavez Ravine to be developed, an upcoming cable deal, and stadium naming rights. 

However, he may (or may not) be the owner of the Dodgers, and pending that resolution, very little money will be spent until the arbitration cases are settled.  Deal with it – it’s the way it is.  We aren’t the Padres with a $35 mil payroll and few scouts and farm system personnel.  The Los Angeles Dodgers have a FULLY STOCKED FRONT OFFICE, with more professional baseball people running it than any other team!  

The Dodgers recently hired Ken Bracey who was one of the top player development people within San Diego’s organization and also added Bruce Hines, who also has 25 years experience to our Minor League Staff.  They continue to have a deep instruction base in the minor leagues.  To say that McCourt just wants to plunder the team, brands you as a crackpot.  To think we didn’t offer arbitration to Wolf and Hudson because we didn’t want to pay a first round draft pick is borderline psychotic!  There may not have been much of a chance either would have accepted, but THERE WAS A CHANCE, and due to the Dodgers payroll limitations, they simply couldn’t take that chance.  If they were really intent upon pillaging the farms system, you get rid of all the suits with six-digit salaries first.  Then, you would quit spending on personnel and development at Camelback Ranch.  GET A GRIP ON REALITY!

The past few seasons, we have signed Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones and Manny Ramirez.  By staying out of the game right now, we may be in a better position come Spring or July.  Big contracts haven’t gotten us much.  It is what it is and it isn’t the end of the Dodgers.  By July, they should have their ownership resolved.  McCourt will be in (or out) and then the Dodgers should have a direction.  Quit raving like lunatics – this too shall pass… and we might (JUST MIGHT) be better for it.

Sometimes you get better from within…

UPDATE:  SI’s Jon Heyman reports that the Dodgers may be interested in Adrian Beltre…

Some people say I am too optimistic and that I always predict career years for the Dodgers, so I thought I’d post what I said last year.  This is from a February 16, 2009 post, which was BEFORE O-Dog and Manny were signed:

1B- James Loney is quietly becoming a force at 1B.  He will win a Gold Glove soon and should be a .300 hitter with 20 HR and 100 RBI.  That puts him near the top at his position.

2B- Blake DeWitt will be the official starter, but Mark Loretta will start against tough LH pitchers.  I predict that this platoon will produce a BA of .270/20 HR and 70 RBI from the #8 hole.

SS- If Rafael Furcal stays healthy, he is one of the top impact players in the game.

3B- Casey Blake provides a very important mental toughness which will help his young teammates.  The versatility of DeWitt (2B, 3B) and Blake (3B, 1B, LF, RF) allows Joe Torre to “rest”  Russell Martin at 3B on certain days.  Blake could also see some time in LF.

LF- Andre Ethier will be a year better and I project him at .300/25/100.  He is an excellent LF as well, with a very good arm.  He’s not as soft as he once was.

CF – Juan Pierre has to play here.  He’s not the greatest CF ever, but he covers more ground than Kemp and has more experience.  He needs to play there if Manny is not signed.

RF – Matt Kemp is possibly the offensive key to our season.  If he continues to improve, and realizes more of his potential (he reported with the pitchers and catchers to Spring Training), he will not be  just be the Bison, but he’ll also be the Monster.  I expect him to hit near .300 with 25-30 HR and 110 RBI from the Cleanup Spot.  He will also have about 15-20 Outfield Assists.

C-  This will be the year that Russell Martin distances himself from most other catchers in baseball.   His hitting and defense will be elevated, but most importantly, he will become the Dodgers captain.

OK, how did I do?  Loney was short of .300  and while he did have 90 RBI, his power didn’t yet amnifest itself, but I wasn’t far off.  O-Dog played 2B so I am returning to my prediction at 2B for DeWitt and Carroll.  Raffy had a bad year – I don’t know if it was injury related but it wasn’t good.  Blake was what he was.  I “underestimated”  Ethier and “overestimated” Martin.    My prediction on Kemp was pretty accurate.

So, where’s the beef?

In the same post I said:

This team is a lot better than most of you think, even without Manny!  For the record, if Manny doesn’t sign with us, it will be with the Yankees, which would make more of their outfielders available.  I still don’t see anyone beating the Dodgers offers to Manny because baseball expects to be hurting this year.  The Dodgers have sold half of the season tickets they projected for spring training and all the teams realize that with the economy more and more people will cut back on games and cut back on what they buy at the park.  You are kidding yourself if you think someone will pay Manny more than the Dodgers – certainly not the Giants!  One final thing.  If Manny doesn’t sign, we still can sign Orlando Hudson and put him at 2B, move Dewitt to 3B and platoon Blake and Pierre in the OF.  Just a thought…

You never know how things will play out, but I wasn’t too far off!

Here’s what I see with our offense for next season:

1. Furcal  SS -  Raffy rebounds (it is an “even” year) and has his career year with a .303 BA, .381 OB% and 126 Runs Scored, even though he only steels 26 bases
2. Martin C- Perfect #2 hitter rebounds with a .279 BA to go with .388 OB%
3. Loney 1B – Breakout year at 1B with 22 HR. 106 RBI and a .316 BA
4. Kemp CF – Monster year with MVP like numbers - .312 BA, 38 HR and 119 RBI
5. Manny LF – Continues to be a very good player, not not “elite-class” – .299 BA, 27 HR, 96 RBI
6. Ethier RF – A nice year, but not quite as good as 2009 – .274 BA 27 HR and 93 RBI
7. Blake 3B – Solid, but not great with a .267 BA, 18 HR and 78 RBI
8. DeWitt 2B – Nice year with a .258 BA to go with 19 HR and 67 RBI

It’s rare when most players on a team have good years, but I think the numbers I have assigned each player are certainly within their capability!

Feel free to agree… or not!

I also think Doug Mientkiewicz and Jamey Carroll will make a nice L-R pinch-hitting tandem, although neither has much power.  Angel Berroa is insurance in case the Reds wanted Hu in the alleged Harang deal, which is near dead according to Dylan Hernandez of The LA Times.  In the same article he quotes Ned Colletti as saying that Jon Link (acquired in the Pierre deal) is the closest to major league ready:

Of the two pitchers the Dodgers acquired from the Chicago White Sox to complete the Juan Pierre trade, Colletti said 25-year-old reliever Jon Link was the closest to being major-league-ready.

“He has a chance to be on our club this year,” he said.

Link saved 13 games and had a 3.99 earned-run average in 48 relief appearances for triple-A Charlotte last season. The Dodgers also received John Ely in the deal. Ely, 23, was 14-2 with a 2.82 ERA for double-A Birmingham last season.

Colletti said the Dodgers remain interested in re-signing backup catcher Brad Ausmus, but if they fail to do so, they would feel comfortable with A.J. Ellis in that role.

ADRIAN BELTRE

I was asked about Adrian Beltre yesterday on the other thread and while I do not think it is likely the Dodgers will sign him, I think he would be a huge upgrade at 3B.  First, let’s compare stats:

These stats are based upon playing 162 games a year.  At age 36, Casey Blake has 6.5 years of major league service.  Adrian Beltre at age 30 has 10.3 years of major league experience.  Adrian had some serious injuries last year, but at age 30, should be in his prime.  We have to expect a decline for Blake at as 36.  Beltre is a huge defensive upgrade at 3B (Blake was a surprise there last year, however).  

However, the main reason I want Beltre is “JUST A GUT FEELING THAT A RETURN TO THE DODGERS WOULD CATAPULT HIM TO AN ALL-STAR YEAR!”  

Totally rational!

LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today announced that they have traded outfielder Juan Pierre to the White Sox for two players to be named. Dodger General Manager Ned Colletti made the announcement. “Juan always put the Dodgers first, even when it wasn’t in his personal best interest,” said Colletti. “In this day, that is a rare attribute. When he and I spoke at the end of the season, we agreed that if an opportunity presented itself in which his chance to play would be enhanced, we would pursue it and that’s what we’ve done. He deserved the chance to play more.” During his three seasons with Los Angeles, Pierre batted .294 with a .339 on-base percentage and 134 stolen bases in 173 attempts. Last season, his 10th in the Majors, Pierre hit .308 (117-for-380) with a .365 on-base percentage in 145 games. The Dodgers will receive the two players to be named on or before Jan. 7, 2010.

Here’s a great analysis about Jason Repko from Phil Gurnee of TrueBlueLa:

Based on what Ned Colletti is saying, Jason Repko appears to be staying around for the moment. With the Dodgers trying very hard to trade Juan Pierre and his contract for either a starting pitcher or a 2nd baseman the battle for who becomes the Dodger fourth outfielder looks to come down to Jason Repko or Xavier Paul.  It would seem a given that Paul is the better candidate to be the fourth outfielder but is he?

Xavier Paul does everything as well as Repko in the field. Repko is faster on bases. What Paul does not  do well is hit LHP.  He hits RHP as well as Repko hits LHP but my argument is that this team needs someone to caddy for Andre.  If Manny was to get hurt, then I’d bring up Paul to be the everyday LF not Repko, but for a guy off the bench Repko might be that guy.

Jason Repko does many things well that you would look for in a backup outfielder. The thing he does best however is mash LHP.  His slug% against LHP over the last three minor league season has been greater then .585 every year and twice it has topped .600.  The Dodgers have a need for guy who can hit LHP and play RF. Repko can be that guy. What he can’t do is hit RHP, so the Dodgers will need to have a guy like Minky on the bench who can handle that role.

The Dodgers starting outfield is Manny, Kemp, and Andre. Of those three only one has a serious chink in their armor. That chink is that Andre does not hit left handed pitching very well. For his career Andre has a 200 point split in his OPS between facing RHP and LHP. Last year that split widened to .926 compared to .629. Part of the problem the Dodgers had last year with Pierre on the bench was that we could not use Pierre in RF to sit Andre against some LHP. The gain in moving Kemp to RF and Pierre to CF,with the left handed Pierre facing left handed pitching just wasn’t worth it.

They both can play all the positions of the outfield, they both have plus speed, and they both have guns for arms. So that is how they are the same. How they are different is probably why I think that Repko might be the better fit for a fourth outfielder role.

Keeping Repko is a bsaeball decision, obviously not a $$$$ decision

Dylan Hernandez reports that the Dodger have decided not to sell Eric Stults to Japan.  Another baseball decision.

I think that Pierre will be gone soon and Repko and Paul will be our extra outfielders.

Coming up soon:

Logan White and De Jon Watson discuss the Dodgers Minor Leagues and players like Lambo and Gordon.  Watch for it on Friday right here on LAdodgertalk.com

It’s no secret that the McCourts are in the midst of a messy divorce, but would things be any different if Frank and Jamie were still together?

Would that have caused the Dodgers to offer arbitration to Randy Wolf and/or Orlando Hudson?  Would that have caused the Dodgers to sign Wolf?  Well, no one can be sure, but do you really want 3 years of Randy Wolf?  I mean, two years ago and even last year, many of you didn’t want him back. 

Yeah, the Randy Wolf of 2009 was pretty nice, so nice that he earned the Type A Free Agent Rating, but what are the odds that he stays healthy or continues his level of success in 2010, 2011 and 2012?  I would say the odds are not good.  That’s just my opinion, but I don’t see him as a workhorse.  I do see a guy who could say that he was a Type A Free Agent who had better stats that D-Lowe, and D-Lowe makes $15 mil a year.  That was the most that Wolf stood to make – $15 mil a year, but if he would have asked for, say $13 million a year, he would have had a decent shot at it, especially if the Dodgers offered less than $10 million. 

You might say that the Brewers offered him about $30 mil over 3 years, but what makes you so sure they would have offered the contract if they had to give up compensation?  You don’t know, and there is no way to ever know, but it’s circular thinking to think it would have happened the same way.   I think the Dodgers decided (change that – I know that the Dodgers decided that they did not want to give Randy Wolf a multi-year deal in the $10 mil per year range and they felt he would accept arbitration because (1) he knew he could get $11-15 mil in arbitration ($15 mil is probably too high, but maybe not); and (2) they did not want to commit to a multi-year deal with him.  This is all conjecture, but offering arbitration would have changed the whole dynamic. 

For similar reasons, Orlando Hudson, who did not want to come back to LA, would have jumped at a chance for a $10 million payday.  He was an All-Star and Gold Glove 2B on multiple occasions, and again – a case could be made that he could command up to $10 million a year.  Likely?  MAYBE NOT, BUT POSSIBLE!   It is an extreme example, but it’s possible that the Dodgers could have had 25% of their $100 million payroll tied up with two players.  Again, it may not have been likely, but it was a scenario that the Dodgers had to consider as possible.  If that had happened it would have crippled the Dodgers ability give raises to their youngsters.

Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson made us better in 2009, but I have reason to believe that one of our youngsters can step in and fill their shoes.   McDonald, Troncoso, Elbert, Lindblom and Haeger are in the mix for the first 2 spots behind Billingsley, Kershaw and Kuroda.  Again, come July, more arms will be on the market at a cheaper price.  I see nothing wrong with trying the youngsters and then shopping in July, if necessary.  Should Ned tell you that?  Why play your cards?  This team is going to be very good next year, if only because our players are another year older and more mature.  Blake DeWitt is a “Ballplayer” at 2B, and I would not even sniff at Belliard or Carroll, unless it’s as a utility-man.

Manny Ramirez will also be playing for a new contract and I think he will return with a vengeance.  I also don’t see the Dodgers buying-down Pierre’s contract.  They will keep him or trade him for a pitcher with a “bad contract.”  I still hope for Harang (because I think he has a higher upside than Arroyo), but who knows?  The Dodgers still need bench help, but we already have Xavier Paul, Jason Repko, Juan Pierre and Chin-lung Hu.  Brad Ausmus is a strong possibility again,  and so all we need is another RH infield bat – not Craig Counsell who is LH.

So, back to the question first propounded – would things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  I can’t answer that, but I will ask, should things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  This is a business and is it prudent to sign players like Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones or, for that matter, Manny Ramirez?  I say no.  I am on record this time last year as saying the Dodgers should not sign Manny (something for which I was castigated), but Manny was mostly a “non-factor.”  Go after “Blue Chip” Players, not “cow chip” players.  If we had went after C.C. Sabathia instead of Manny, we would be talking right now about Hudson or Wolf, and we might have won the Series last year. 

I say that when it comes to Free Agents – Go BIG or Stay Home!  Think about it!  There are no “BIG” ones this year, so we should stay home.  Quit trying to “make a silk purse out of a sows ear.”  So, if you are one of the naysayers who say “The Dodgers Won’t Win With The Pitchers They Have,”  You are probably the same ones who told me the Dodgers wouldn’t win without Manny. They didn’t win WITH him.

I am not going to mention any names (Gammons, Rosethal, Stark, Heyman, Morosi, et al), but I am convinced that some (most or all) of these guys sniff around all their contacts every day and when they hear “Well, we have some interest in so-and-so,” they conclude it’s a done deal.  Most of the rumors the above Alleged “insiders” propound are rubbish.  They have a “feel” for what might, could, will happen and they just extrapolate that into more fact than fiction.  RUBBISH!  Journalists?  More like “National Enquirer Shock Journalists.”  I have seen and heard enough to smell doo-doo when I see (hear) it.  That’s why I typically to refuse to publish such drivel.

Now, I have told you for months that the White Sox would be a good destination for Juan Pierre.  That rumor is flying around the Winter Meetings, but it’s old news.  Even Ray Charles can see the ChiSox would be a good match for Juan, but will the Chi-Sox give up a pitcher for him.  Who could that be?  I don’t have a clue…

Ken Gurnick  (of www.Dodgers.com, who is a great guy by the way) writes that Ned Colletti says that the Dodgers are not shopping Sherrill and that the payroll will not likely go down (this is a good read -I have highlighted important stuff):

INDIANAPOLIS — Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti on Monday disputed reports that he’s shopping reliever George Sherrill at the Winter Meetings and said the Dodgers’ planned payroll for 2010 hasn’t dropped from 2009.

“We’re not shopping anybody,” Colletti said. “I think George Sherrill pitched great for us. He gives us the same component he gave us last year, somebody who can close, can pitch late in the game. He’s a left-handed compliment to the right-handed [Jonathan] Broxton.”

Reports earlier in the day had baseball officials claiming the Dodgers were redirecting other clubs toward Sherrill, who is likely to receive a salary around $4 million through the arbitration process.

Responding to speculation that the divorce of owner Frank McCourt was having a financial impact on player decisions, Colletti said each year’s payroll is impacted by many economic factors. The Dodgers’ payroll last season was around $100 million.

“We’ve got a general idea,” he said of a working 2010 payroll. “This year or 20 years ago in my career, a lot of it depends on how winter unfolds with revenue and different things. You see good signs, it goes up. You don’t see good signs, it probably doesn’t go up. It also depends on the players we’re talking about.”

Asked if next year’s payroll could go down from this year’s, he said: “Not at the moment.”

As for Sherrill, Colletti said the bullpen was one of the team’s strengths in ’09, and he’d prefer to keep it that way rather than deal from that strength.

“[Dealing Sherrill] would be a rob-Peter-to-pay-Paul type of decision,” he said.

Colletti said there are young relievers in the farm system, but that the club plans to have Scott Elbert and Josh Lindblom open the 2010 season as starters, with James McDonald a possibility for either.

“From time to time, we put starters in the bullpen to help us on the Major League level, but you can’t always rush them,” he said. “You have to have the patience to develop them into starters. We’ll try to maintain patience with Elbert and Lindblom and develop them into starters. Will it work? I can’t tell you that. But the first week of December, that’s what we’re thinking.”

Colletti said he remains focused on adding one or two starting pitchers, a second baseman as security if Blake DeWitt doesn’t pan out and rebuild the bench.

He said the only free agent from last year’s roster that he’s talked to is Brad Ausmus, who hasn’t decided if he will retire. Colletti is interested in bringing back Ausmus as Russell Martin’s backup. He said pitcher Eric Milton, whose season ended with back surgery, would not return. The Dodgers also are in no hurry to sign any free agents coming off a significant injury, but that could change later in the winter.

And Colletti said he’s not alone in taking a patient approach to free agency. He said the players are too, based on what he’s heard from their agents so far.

“They’re not showing me their cards,” he said. “From what I’ve been seeing, it makes [a free-agent signing this week] unlikely.”

Colletti said he spoke to outfielder Juan Pierre (owed $18.5 million for the next two years) about his future. He said Pierre had softened his desire for a trade from a year earlier and told him he would be open to moving him to a team where he would play every day — and likely bring a starting pitcher in return.

“I think he’s in a better place in his own mind about his role and we’ll see what happens,” Colletti said. “He’s someone we’d talk about in the right situation for us and him.”

Also, Gurnick reports that the Dodgers are talking about extending  Joe Torre to manage through 2011 and the presumably take over for Tommy in 2012 (the Big Dodger in the Sky will get him sooner or later).  Interesting….

It was funny to watch Tommy and Ozzie Guillen interacting today….  Two drama Queens!

Maybe some deals tomorrow… or maybe not!

Just in case you haven’t figured it out, attendance at Dodger Stadium is not the only source of income for the Dodgers.  While their have attendance has been stellar,

Hu's on the team

 most other teams  have seen substantial declines in attendance, which means that the Dodgers get a smaller cut of the gate and concessions.  It is not clear what the amount of the decline is to me, but I estimate it at around $15 to $20 million a year.  Couple that with MLB Apparel and Memorabilia sales declines and the Dodgers could be losing as much as $20 to $25 million a year in revenue as a result of the recession.  It may get better next year.  It may not.  Some teams (can you say Cincinnati Reds?) are looking to dump payroll.  The Dodgers are looking to stay level or even drop payroll.  I have an idea:

How about Juan Pierre, James McDonald, Ivan DeJesus, Jr., and Blake DeWitt to the Reds for either Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips?  Up-shoot:  The Reds save $10 mil a year and get some prospects (along with a  leadoff hitter – Dusty Baker loves Pierre) and the Dodgers spend only an extra $10 mil to get an “inning eater” pitcher and a 2B.  Next, the Dodgers should offer Hudson and Wolf arbitration, making it clear to Hudson that Phillips is the 2B, and if he won his arbitration case he’d be a backup.  Hudson would decline arbitration, but Wolf could accept.  That’s fine!

Dole out the raises to the youngsters and the Dodgers are done!  Our rotation would look something like this:

1. Kershaw
2. Billingsley
3. Kuroda
4. Arroyo/Harang
5. Wolf or Heager

Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Phillips  2B
7. Loney  1B
8. Blake 3B

I could live with that!  Harang makes $11.5 mil next year and Arroyo makes $11 mil, so pick ‘em.  You never know – they could be a dud or they could be a Godsend!  Sometimes you have to roll the dice.  Castro is headed to Philly and Hu is the logical backup infielder.  Xavier Paul, Jason Repko and Jamie Hoffman are candidates for two outfield spots.  Ausmus may or may not play for a million next year, but if he doesn’t Ellis or another bargain Free Agent will be available. 

The Dodgers should be able to field an excellent team for under (or around) $100 million.  Harang and Arroyo’s average years are not what I expect.  I would hope for a “carrer year” for whichever one come to LA.  You gotta’ believe!  The “kids” will be year better next and Martin and Loney will “breakout.”  Believe it!

GoodNews/BadNews:

• Bud Selig will be commissioner at least 3 more seasons.
• The Marlins are shopping Josh Johnson… Hummmmmm, I may have to revise my thinking…

The Dodgers have improved over 2008.   They won more games, but they still couldn’t get past the Phillies, and the Phillies will still be good next year.  I suspect that Raul Ibanez had his career year and will slip back to reality next year and the Phillies will have some holes to fill, just like the Dodgers.  Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have a former ace who needs to come back and I believe both will.  It would not surprise me to see either one win a Cy Young Award in the future, even as easly as next year.  I fully expect Hamels and Billingsley to both win 16-18 games next year.  Both pitchers have too much talent.

Manny will return as Manny, because he’s playingfor Manny,  and the Dodgers should benefit from his quest for a new contract, in what will certainly be his last year as a Dodger.  Look for Manny to hit .320+ with 35 HR and 130 RBI.  I look for more growth by Kemp and Ethier as both become perennialAll-Stars.   Russ Martin?  He’ll be back with a vengeance!  Count on it!    I do see two areas in which the Dodgers need to improve:  They need more power from 3B and 1B and they will get it from James Loney at 1B, who I believe will hit around 25 dingers.  He has shown he is capable.  3B is another issue.  Casey Blake had a better year than I expected, but he’s still a journeyman at best.   We need a big HR bat at 3B and will will get robbed if we try and trade or one.  Here’s what we do:  Sign Adrian Beltre!  Sign Adrian Beltre.   He loves LA and is a cinch to hit 30 for the Dodgers.  Yeah, I know you don’t believe me, but he will!    If you want to look at stats, then I’ll use the year he hit 48 HR as a stat!  He’s young enough that we can sign him to a 5 year deal.   That means we need to dump Blake, and we can do that in a deal for Roy Halliday. I purpose that we trade Jon Broxton, Casey Blake, James McDonald, Ethan Martin,  and Chris Withrow to Toronto for Roy Halliday (pay a lot, get a lot).  I am not a Blake hater, but we need to get younger and better at 3B! Read the full story

 This team is far from needing rebuilding, but any good team needs to ”retool” every year.  Last year, the Phillies won the World Series with Pat Burrell in LF.  They evidently decided

Must Be A Padre Fan...

 that he wasn’t the answer this year, so they signed a guy even older who ended up having his career year.   The Phillies may yet be sorry that they signed Raul Ibanez, but right about now, that move is looking pretty good.    They added Shane Victorino and Jason Werth in 2005 and 2007 as key pieces to the puzzle.  How did they get them?  No Big Blockbuster Deals, just incidental signings, which turned out to be pretty good.    I don’t think we need to rebuild – the core of the team is in place, but re-tool, we must!

I have taken the 40-Man Roster, plus some others who are technically not on it and divided them into three (3) groups:

1. Core players who we need to keep – in BLUE;
2. Players who we needs to keep under the right conditions – in BLACK; and
3. Players we need to try and lose, trade, release or not sign – in RED.

It’s not hard to see that our core is young and will get even better.  I have Jon Broxton on the BLUE list (even though I have serious doubts about him), because we don’t currently have better options (that too could change).  Now, I am not saying that I wouldn’t trade Broxton or some of the others, but it would have to be a trade that we would make from a point of strength.  Read the full story

Some people have said that you have to get Carpenter early or you don’t get him.  Not true – for the past three years, the league is hitting .305 against Carpenter after 61 pitches. The Dodgers need to be patient… and then NAIL Carpenter.  POUND him!  HAMMER him!  SAW him off!  SCREW him!  If that doesn’t work, then  try something else.

Question:  What do the Dodger Starters for the first three (3) Playoff Games all have in common?

Answer:  None of them (Wolf, Kershaw or Padilla) has ever started a playoff game.  Billingsley is slated for Game 4, unless he is used in relief which he will be.

It should be interesting!  Very interesting! Read the full story

This is it!  These last three games determine home-field advantage as well as the division championship.  I say “Captain Insano Shows No Mercy!”  We have beat the Rockies like rented mules all year.  No reason to show mercy now.  Just beat them down!  Ubaldo Jimenez is 0-3 with a 7.77 earned-run average in four starts against the Dodgers this season.  We should serve him more of the same.   “Captain Insano Shows No Mercy!”  Our record against the Rockies is 12-3.  We need to break their will and make it 15-3!

It time for Manny Ramirez to take matters into his own hands and I believe that he will, starting tonight.  Matt Kemp has been our best hitter all season.  Hands down, he’s our MVP.  Andre Ethier has been struggling mightily of late.   Ethier is mired in a 1 for 29 (.034) slump.  Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times writes this: Read the full story

Juan Pierre - 3rd Place in Dodger MVP Race?

Now that we have clinched a playoff spot and are within two games of  clinching the NL West Championship, I think it is time to shift the emphasis from our starters, namely Russell Martin, James Loney, Orlando Hudson, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, and recognize the Stuntmen.  Actually, this year they go by the moniker “Bomb Squad.”

It’s appropriate to start with Brad Ausmus, who has appeared in 35 games and sports a .301 Batting average, which is the highest of his career for the defensive specialist.  However, the veteran presence and clubhouse camaraderie fostered by Brad (who, by the way is a REAL smart guy) is hard to quantify.  Ned got his money’s worth on Ausmus play, but his clubhouse presence is priceless.  Ditto on Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Loretta (who swooned mid-season, but seems to be heating-up again), and Juan Castro, who has hit a solid .288, filled in defensively for Raffy and has been an all-round stabilizing influence on this team. Blake DeWitt has to get a hand for bouncing up and down like a yo-yo between AAA and the big club.  He certainly didn’t have the offensive year we expected, but he played 3B, SS and 2B and never complained.  His stock hasn’t dropped in my eyes.  Blake DeWitt is a ballplayer.  Others made some contribution, such as Xavier Paul, AJ Ellis, and Jim Thome who delivered in the clutch last night.  Let’s not forget the late season heroic of Ronnie Belliard, who has hit as many HR in a few weeks for the Dodgers as he did all year for the Nats.

Last, but not least – I saved the best for last is Juan Pierre, who is some respects has been one of the most valuable Dodgers.  Behind Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre has to be somewhere around 3rd in Dodger MVP votingfor what he did while Manny was suspended and how he has played all year.  He just shows up (early), shuts up (no complaints) and steps up (in 360 AB’s he has hit .311 with a .371 OB%, stole 27 bases and scored 56 runs).   Juan Pierre is the Captain of the Bomb Squad! Read the full story

I think some of you may misunderstand why I said Chad Billingsley “has deep-seated psychological problems.”  First, you need to know that I have been a Chad Billingsley fan way back to the beginning of his career.  I am still a big proponent of Chad Billingsley and… I’ll say it:  I think he should be in the playoff rotation.  I don’t think he nuts, psycho or a moron.  I think he is someone who has hit the wall because of his thought process.  Somehow, someway, he has a deep-seated issue with success and unknowingly sabotages his own journey to success.  Yes, he had a one-hitter on Wednesday, but after walking two batters in the 6th inning, his HR was too predictable, and he chose THAT MOMENT to hang a pitch.  This has become a pattern this year.  He pitches well for 4-6 innings and BANG, he blows it up.  It’s mental.  It’s psychological and it’s beatable!   Chad Billingsley is a winner and maybe he is already working on his problem.  This is a common problem which people in various walks of life face.  Chad is just on a public stage and his struggles are well publicized.  Chad will come back with a vengeance.  I am betting on it.  The immediate question is “Can he be effective in the playoffs?”  I say YES!  I like Chad, as our #2 for a long time, but he has to conquer this psychological issue first!

When I say he has psychological problems, I’m not saying he’s nuts.  We are all nuts anyway.  I am and so are you.  YES, YOU!  Get over it already.  Do you know how hard it is to do what Chad does?  He has been too good for too long for this to define his career.  Watch and see!  Our playoff  hopes hinge on two guys whose combined age is the same as Jamie Moyers – Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw!  If they step-up in the playoffs, we will be hard to beat! Read the full story