Most of what follows come from Ken Gurnick of Dodgers .com:

• A day after losing catcher Russell Martin for four to six weeks with a pulled groin muscle, the Dodgers saw third baseman Casey Blake come out of Monday’s exhibition game against the Giants with a strained rib-cage muscle.
• Joe Torre said this about Josh Lindblom:  ”Am I allowed to say it with my general manager around”  He’s pretty simple to watch. His ball explodes at the end with something on it.“ In my opinion, Lindblom has a great shot at making the team.
• In the regular game against the Giants, the Dodgers received two solid innings from Josh Towers; an impressive inning from Jon Link, who came over from the White Sox in the Juan Pierre trade; and two scoreless innings from Rule 5 Draft pick Carlos Monasterios.
• General manager Ned Colletti said there was no news regarding the status of reliever Ronald Belisario, who is still stuck in Venezuela with visa problems complicated by a driving under the influence arrest last summer. Colletti said if Belisario isn’t ready to start the season, he would be placed on the restricted list.
• Another quote from Torre:  ”Right now, Blake [DeWitt] is swinging as well as anybody.  I believe he’ll hit in the big leagues consistently, not .320, but probably .280 plus do some damage.”  Joe stole that line from me!

The rest is from me:

• Blake DeWitt is now hitting .800 (he’ll keep that up) in his bid to make the team as the everyday 2B.Ned Wants it, Joe Wants it and it looks like Blake Wants it.
• Jamey Carroll haters will enjoy a heaping helping of crow!  This guy will mean a lot to us.
• Nick Green is ahead of schedule.  He doesn’t have the stats, but this guy is also a ballplayer.  Probably no room, but….

By actual count, the Dodgers have 32 pitchers in Spring Training Camp who are vying for 12 spots.  I cannot see any way that Joe Torre decides to go with 13 pitchers.  With the off days and all, I think he will break camp with 12 pitchers.  That means that 20 have to go.

There are 11 Non-Roster invitees:

Also on the 40 man roster are McDonald, Link. Zerpa, Wade, Schlichting, Leach and Elbert as players who have a shot at making the team.

The way I see it, unless Stults and/or Haeger really mess up or get traded or go on the DL, they will both make the team.  That would make 11 pitchers.

Monasterios has a shot unless the Dodgers want to lose him (I have never seen him pitch, so I have no clue).  Then there’s Wade (remember how good he was in 2008?), Weaver (great swingman), Miller (solid), Gagne (no way?  way!) and McDonald and Lindblom (the future, who could all go to AAA).

The Dodgers have plethora of arms.  Who will win the arms race?

It should prove to be interesting.

DODGERS TALK:

• According to Steve Dilbeck of THE LA TIMES, the Dodgers are steamed about Ronald Beliasrio.  Sometimes things like this end badly for a player:

“I think it’s a problem now.  The pitchers need all this time. Of course, he did play winter ball. But I can’t really tell you [his condition]  until I see him.”

• Dylan Hernandez and Bill Shaikin report that Garrett Anderson is a Dodger.  This should prove to be interesting as Mientkiewicz, Giles and Anderson compete for one spot.
• Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus writes on ESPN/LA’s Pay Blog that Clayton Kershaw’s new Slider Makes Him a Cy Young Candidate (Thanks to Jon Weisman)
•  Tony Jacksonreports that Ned Colletti is not happy with Belisario either.  I am beginning to think the guy is a knucklehead!  Tony also reported this:

 The situation ultimately could cost Belisario a considerable amount of money, as well. He has only one year of big-league service time, meaning he will have a split contract with a major-league salary of no more than about $415,000 this season, and he won’t even get that much if he is in the minors.There also is a provision, known as Regulation 6, in the current Basic Agreement between owners and the players’ union that would allow the Dodgers to suspend Belisario without pay and require him to stay behind in extended spring training when the team breaks camp if he doesn’t report at least 33 days before the start of the season.The Dodgers’ season opener is April 5 at Pittsburgh, meaning Belisario already has missed that deadline and the Dodgers already have that option.”In the event of the failure of the Player to report for practice or to participate in the exhibition games, as required or provided for,” the regulation reads, “he shall be required to get into playing condition to the satisfaction of the Club’s team manager, and at the Player’s own expense, before his salary shall commence.”The phrase “to the satisfaction of the Club’s team manager” means the length of such a suspension would be entirely at the Dodgers’ discretion.

Our 2010 Starting Rotation

Well, if you ask me… and you didn’t (but I’m going to tell you anyway), it’s Young Clayton.  Maybe it’s a rush job, but maybe it’s not.  Maybe he’s ready.  Not “maybe” – he ISready!   I think it’s likely that Clayton Kershaw will be even better this year.  His ERA might not reflect that, but he will pitch deeper into games and flirt with 20 wins this year.  After Clayton, will come Chad Billingsley, followedby Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, with the 5th Spot being Eric Stults to lose.

Unless Charlie Haeger is a disaster during the spring, he will battle Jeff Weaver for the “swingman” spot in the pen.  The rest of the bullpen is less clear.  We do know that Jon Broxton, George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso, Hong chih Kuo and James McDonald will probably all make the team barring injury.  I just can’t see Weaver and Haeger both making the team, as they are competing for the same position, but if it comes down to it, they will keep Charlie and send Jeff to AAA (at least for a few weeks under the guise of building arm strength).

That leaves a lot of pitchers up for grabs, including Ronnie Belisario, whom Joe Torre may want to demote for a while after his Visa problems two years in a row.   We also have Cory Wade, who could flat-out make the team out of Spring training, and Carlos Monasterios (who could be bought or have another player sent to his former team, and demoted).  Lindblom, Zerpa, Miller, Towers and Elbert all seem slated for AAA.

While it would be a “feel good” story and great if it happened, the odds are against Eric Gagne making the team.  Would he accept an assignment to AAA?  Maybe for a few weeks, but hey, this is Spring – anything can happen.

Let’s not forget, however, that there is always a pitching surprise.  Belisario was the big one last year.  Who will it be this year?

Rants & Raves

• I keep thinking about it and I can’t see Brian Giles or Doug Mientkiewicz making the team, especially if Xavier Paul has a rousing Spring
• Ronnie Belliard has to weigh below 210 pounds tomorrow – if he doesn’t, is he off the team.  At any rate, I don’t see him as a starter.  He’s a role-player (like last year).
• Russ Martin will be the All-Star Catcher in the NL this year – Write that down!
• Oh, and in case you don’t understand – I still say Clayton Kershaw will be our Opening Day Starter.

Pitchers and Catchers report on February 2o, 2010 and the first workout is February 21, 2010, so I am going to take a few days off.  I’ll be back on the 20th or 21st. 

I’ll leave you with a few things to cuss and discuss:

• Is it possible that the Combination of Reed Johnson and Brian Giles will be even better than Juan Pierre last year?  Think about that one really hard.
• Why can’t a guy who hit over .300 for the first two months of 2008 and is in his 6th professional season make the transition to everyday 2B?  Think about this:  9 trips!  That has to have an effect, but also serves to help you grow up real quick.  Is it possible we will see the 2008 April and May Blake DeWitt all year?
• Jamey Carroll can play every infield position and every outfield position (he hasn’t played SS for a couple of years, but he can in an emergency) and hits nearly .350 as a pinch hiiter.  Do you think he might have some value? 
• Could this be THE year Kuroda is injury-free (remember, it’s not his arm that has been the problem)?
• Does anyone in their right mind think that sometime  between September 2008 and August 2009, Manny Ramirez just “lost it?’   OR, is it possible you could see him be a beast in the least year of his contract?
• What are the chances in July or August that a team who (1) loses a closer to injury, or (2)  has a closer who is not getting the job done, elects to trade for Ronnie Belisario and/or George Sherrill?
• The Dodgers will have a shuttle to and from Albaquacky (I can’t spell Albuquerque) all year -especially for the pitching staff.  At any given time, we could have Troncoso,  Wade, Schlichting, Leach, Lindblom, Miller and Felix there at any given minute.  Expect to see a lot of movement to and from there.
• DARKHORSE:  Ivan DeJesus, Jr. – Could he “sieze the day at 2B?s  Brian Barton (who?) – You never know!!!
• Charles Haeger is out of options and so is Eric Stults.  If, for no other reason than that, they will be given a shot at being the #5.   Because of that, I think Scott Elbert starts the year at AAA.  James McDonald might end up back in AAA so that he can start as well, but I think he’ll play out better as a reliever.  We’ll see.
• Could it be that the Dodgers won’t have a  true SS as a backup this year?  Carroll could well be the emergency SS and Hu and Green would only be a cab ride away. 
• There’s a real chance Amezaga won’t play this year.
• I think the Dodgers will go with 11 pitchers in April.
• Belliard is not a lock to make the team!

This could be your Opening Day Lineup & Roster:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Ethier  RF
5. Manny  LF
6. Loney  1B
7. Blake  3B
8. DeWitt  2B
9. Billingsley  P

Reserves:

1. Carroll
2. Belliard or Doug M ( I can’t spell Mientkiewicz)
3. Giles
4. Johnson
5. Ausmus

Pitchers:

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Haeger
6. Stults
7. Kuo
8. Sherrill
9. Belisario
10. Troncoso
11. Broxton

I’ll be in Carmelback from March 20-27, 2010.  See you there.

Carry on!

The Dodger roster is finally coming together and now the discussions are changing from where is the rest of the team to why did they sign these slugs.  For the 2010 season the Dodger management, more than ever, must attempt to simultaneously win the NL West, delay the major league start dates of the future prospects (and their higher salaries), and have a fresh batch of players ready to graduate from the minors to the majors in case any of the players on the 25 man roster go on the DL for any significant length of time.  This is no small task to simultaneously accomplish these, and possibly other, partially contradictory objectives.

Most of us are of the opinion that the Dodger management is behaving as if without trading a player like Sherrill, the Dodgers do not have the budget, or the prospects, to go out and find replacements during the 2010 season.  Supporting this view is the Dodgers stockpiling of veterans on the 25 man bench, has beens in AAA, and prospects in AAA and AA.

In my opinion this is the correct approach for the 2010 season.  One factor is the increasing salary of the Dodger’s young stars.  Even with Manny, Kuroda, Padilla, and a few others probably not coming back for 2011 or 2012, the Dodger projected player salaries for those two future years is already more than $80 mil. With a 2011 team salary of $85 mil that is missing at least 2 starter pitchers, 1-2 position players, and several bench players, I conclude that the Dodger’s organizational Budget and Payroll is going to be a major issue for several years. 

Therefore, the Dodgers can no longer afford to sign multiple free agents.  Now they must develop the young players.  This approach may cause consternation among those of us that hope for a World Series title this decade. The current economic reality is the new reality and I for one will not be an ostrich and pretend otherwise.  (I am not a Politician) Maybe we can hope for another season with players who play most of the season in the zone like 1988.  Who will rise to the top this year?  Will the Coaches allow the players to pace themselves in 2010?  Will the pitchers learn how to trust their stuff, use the same correct pitching motion more than 50 percent of the time, and will the starters be forced to maintain a level of endurance that is necessary for them to actually make more than 90 pitches in a game?

Considering the Dodger’s unfunded future payroll obligations I am content with the following pitching plan for 2010:

Starting Pitching

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Stults

Long Relief

1. Weaver (Add to 40-man roster at the end of spring training)
   1. Heager
   2. Monasterios or Zerpa (Waive one of them at the end of spring training)

Short Relief

1. Broxton
2. Sherrill  (Candidate for a Trade)
3. Belisario
4. Kuo

Starters building innings at AAA or AA for 2011 rotation opportunity

1. McDonald
2. Lindblum
3. Troncoso
4. Elbert
5. Link

Starting Pitching alternatives in case of a starter going on the 15 day DL

1. McDonald
2. Troncoso
3. Elbert
4. Link

Starting Pitching additional alternatives in case of a starter going on the 60 day DL

1. Josh Lindblum
2. Russ Ortiz
3. Ramon Ortiz
4. Alberto Bastardo

Relievers building experience for 2011 bullpen opportunity

1. Wade
2. Schlitling
3. Leach
4. Jensen
5. Guerra

Reliever alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 15 day DL

1. Wade
2. Schlitling
3. Leach
4. Jensen
5. Guerra

Reliever additional alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 60 day DL

1. Justin Miller
2. Luis Ayala
3. Francisco Felix
4. Josh Towers

… and nothing but the truth!  That’s why you come here, because I am going to tell you the truth.  God knows it’s not because I’m a writer.  At any rate, let’s consider the following and see if what is happening is true or false.

True or False:  Ned Colletti, Frank McCourt and Dennis Mannion have all been “singing out of the same hymnbook” that it’s business as usual for the Dodgers”?

Answer:  True and False!    It’s true that it is “business as usual,” but the “business model” has been changed, so that’s false.  Let me explain.  Ned has made some acquisitions the past few years which have not proven to be (how should I say it?) prudent (how’s that?).   Now, under some circumstances, he might be fired, but not in this case because Frank McCourt, as the new owner of the Dodgers was trying to make an impact and the signings of Pierre (I love Juan Pierre, but he was a bad signing),  Schmidt, Jones and Manny were all approved  (or even “pushed”) by Frank.  So, Ned does not bear all the culpability for those bad deals, and Frank and Ned have come to an understanding:  Frank will be an owner and Ned will be the GM.  Frank has also assured Ned that if he needs more funds to sign a player, he can feel free to come to Frank for more money.  Frank wants to keep the payroll at around $100,000,000 this year, but after the May hearing, he will have a better idea if the Dodgers can be buyers in August and he thinks they can. 

The truth is that the Dodgers have a very good team this year. Maybe it has escaped some of you, but they have some extremely good young players who have gotten better (much better) the past three years.  Even our oft-maligned catcher is rated 4th to 7th in most Fantasy Leagues.  If you can’t have Joe Mauer, the 4th to 7th best Catcher ain’t so bad!   We have some young pitchers who are suddenly just going to “get it.”  BANG!  Our aces-in-waiting will become our aces.  None of  this is lost on savvy baseball people, but it is lost on some of you. 

Forget the TOP 100 or TOP 50 Baseball Prospects.  Ethan Martin is in the Top 50, but I think we have 4 or 5 others who are better than him- Aaron Miller, Chris Withrow, Garrett Gould, Josh Lindblom, Alan Webster and Nate Eavoldi may be among them.   Think Andrew Lambo’s stock has dropped?  Keep thinking that!  Watch him rake this year.  Dee Gordon?  This kid has “star”written all over him! 

What about the big club?  Why did we sign Jamey Carroll only to sign Ronnie Belliard a few weeks later?  Simple – Ned had to make sure we had a veteran second-baseman, and Lopez, Belliard and Hudson were asking Big Bux.  Ned signed Jamey to make sure he had a fallback plan. Plan A is to give Blake DeWitt the opportunity to win the job (forget his season last year, as he bounced around like a yo-yo from the Ravine to Albaquacky 9 times).  The year before, he hit over .300 for 2 months and he has some decent power.  Unless he tanks, the job is his.  Carroll will be a “Dave Hansen Type” Pinch Hitter and Belly will be Belly. 

You naysayers are in for a surprise.  This team isn’t just “good”  – IT’S VERY GOOD! 

Dodger fans – you are in for the ride of your life, and in August, the Dodgers will probably be buyers because they haven’t blown their budget. 

 Like Dave Ramsey says “Live like no one else now, so you can live like no one else later.”

After the addition of Vicente “Gunsmoke” Padilla, Ned Colletti said that it was unlikely that the Dodgers would sign another starter.   Why would they want another starter?  If they can’t get a 5th starter from this list, then they should just quit:  Charlie Haeger, Scott Elbert, Eric Stults and Carlos Monasterios.  I won’t stoop to including Russ Ortiz in that list, although I imagine he’s got a real long-shot at it.   I think it will boil down to Stults and Haeger, but you never know what can happen in the Spring.

What are the odds that Padilla has a better year than Wolf?  Pretty good, I predict!  Padilla has every reason in the world to act right, train hard, pitch good and step up.  If he wins 12-15 games with a sub 4.00 ERA, he’ll be in line for a bigger payoff next year.  It is in situtaions such as this that starters like Padilla can put up their “career year.”

It appears to me that James McDonald is going to pitch out of the pen this year.  I thought that there might be chance that Troncoso would be given a shot at starting, but with the wave of youngsters we have at A headed to AA and beyond (Withrow, Martin, Miller, Eovaldi, Gould and others), McDonald, Troncoso and even Lindblom could be slotted as relievers. 

George Sherrill is still a candidate to be moved – probably in the Summer when someone needs a closer. 

As for me, I’m rooting for Eric Stults.  Indiana Boys have to stick together.

Los Angeles – In what has to be somewhat of a surprise, the Dodgers made two major announcements today.  The first announcement has to do with the divorce proceedings of Frank and Jamie McCourt who agreed to a continuance of their May hearing:

The McCourt’s announced that they have resolved their personal issues and that Jamie will keep all personal property, vehicles, art and personal items.  She also agreed to a $100,000,000.00 payment (payable over 5 years at 6% interest) from Frank McCourt, and assumes her role as CEO of the Dodgers Dream Foundation which will be funded by a $8 million a year grant from the Dodgers.  In return, Frank McCourt gets sole ownership of the Dodgers and has agreed to hire all their sons as club executives. 

Next, Ned Colletti took the dais and said that this is a big burden off the Dodgers and made the following announcement:  “The Dodgers have just completed a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Mariners, who have fallen 26 games below .500. whereby  Chris Withrow, Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert, Casey Blake and  James McDonald have been traded to the Blue Jays for Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Felix Hernandez.  Hernandez has agreed to to a six-year/$125 million deal and Lee has agreed to a 4 year/$90 mil deal.  Our lineup will look like this right now:

1. Figgins  3B
2. Furcal SS
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Martin  C
7. Loney  1B
8. DeWitt 2B

Our Rotation now looks like this as we ready for the stretch run:

Hernandez, Lee, Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda.

Colletti continued:  “With the expiring contracts of Ramirez and Kuroda, we we able to take on more payroll since the ownership issue was resolved and our lenders opened their pockets again.  If we had made all the dope-fiend moves suggested on LaDodgerTalk.com, we would have never had the flexibility to pull this off.  Sure, we gave up a lot, but we are going to win this thing!   I’m glad I listened to Mark Timmons….”

I made my plans and got my tickets yesterday for Camelback Ranch.  I will be there on March 20th through March 27th.  My wife and son will be flying in on the 25th to see the last 3 games with me.  I haven’t gotten the away game tickets, but I’ll work on that next week.  It’s going to be a great Spring Training.   Like Roger mentioned last week, there seems to be gloom and doom by lots of commenters on this board, but that is not a concept shared by most of the national media (which worries me). 

Ride Manny Ride

There is a Mini-Camp in late January at Camelback and I was going to have Rory (Badger) cover it, but after talking with Josh Rawitch, it looks like there will be no media.  Maybe Badger can rent a helicoptor and fly around taking pictures for us. 

Voldomer will be there from March 8-13 and has said that he will provide updates and photos as well.  Badger lives near there, so hopefully he can do the same.

I plan to have LA LodgerTalk T-Shirts available by the End of January – stay tuned, because they will be VERY COOL!   At a very good price I might add….

Some fans have asked which young players have the best chance of making the team.  Here’s my list (in no particular order):

• Josh Lindblom (middle relief)
• Xavier Paul  (4th OF) – This guy has a bat with a lot of pop (great “gap” power) and the best arm in the organization. 
• Carlos Monasterios  (5th Starter) – He has looked good in the Winter League
• Armando Zerpa (middle relief) – Just because he’s LH and they have to keep him or lose him.
• Brent Leach (middle relief) – We have already seen that he has good stuff… and he’s LH
• Travis Schlichting (middle relief) – See Brent Leach, but he’s not LH

Jon Link, Chin-lung Hu, Scott Elbert (who may not be rookies), Jason Repko and AJ Ellis also have a crack at making the team.

Several sources have reported that Jason Repko signed a $500,000.00 deal with the Dodgers to avaoid arbitration.   Just a few weeks ago, most bloggers were saying that he would be “non-tendered.” 

Below is the Spring Training Schedule

Over the past several weeks, I have seen the McCourt Saga gather momentum, like a rock rolling down a hill.  While the divorce is nasty and ugly, a lot of mis-information exists.  It starts with “McCourt might have to sell the team” (a possibility) to “McCourt has to sell the team” to “we want a new owner” to “McCourt won’t spend the money for young players” to “the young players will leave” to “McCourt will sell them off” to “Logan White and the coaches will leave” to “no player will want to play for the Dodgers.”  These are the ramblings of an overactive imagination.  There are several facts of which we can be sure:

1. The Courts are divorcing;
2. A hearing is scheduled for May to determine the ownership of the team – it is likely that it will not be decided until June or even later, depending upon many unknown factors;
3. The Dodgers have been cash strapped as they have been leveraged since McCourt bought the team;
4. This makes the Dodgers even more strapped for cash;
5. The payroll probably CANNOT go much above $100,000,000; and
6. At some point the Dodgers will solely be the property of Frank McCourt or they will be ruled as community property of the divorce.

That’s ALL we know.  You can think and imagine and conjecture, but that is all we KNOW!   You can assume the worst, if you are inclined to make yourself miserable, or you can face reality, which is listed above.  Every legal case is different.  Certain precedents may or may not apply in this case, as we do not have all the facts.  A $100 million payroll is not what any of us expect, but in any business,  certain years bring differing budget needs.  The Dodgers will still be in the TOP Thirty Percent in Baseball Payroll.  They are not the Padres.  Now, I would be unhappy if this were to go on forever, but all indications are that we can compete with a $100 million payroll THIS year. 

Also think about this:  The Boston RedSox had a payroll of $122.6 mil last year, while the Dodgers payroll was $109.1 mil.  So, the RedSox had $13.1 mil MORE payroll than the Dodgers, yet their income was about $30 mil more than the Dodgers!  When you consider that, the Dodgers payroll doesn’t look so bad.  Why doesn’t anyone bash John Henry for not spending more money?  If you put things into perspective,  it looks a lot different.  The sky is not falling and the end is not near!

Come June or July, if ownership of the Dodgers stays with Frank McCourt, then within a year or so, the payroll will creep back up and climb when a new cable deal is implemented.  If ownership is determined to be community property, then in all likelihood, the Dodgers will have to be sold.  Frank  McCourt  is reported to be working on developing land around Chavez Ravine, and I would guess he is also working on “Stadium Naming Rights.“  What role that will play in the divorce remains to be seen.  I have NO OPINION as to what the Court will do.  One can NEVER predict the outcome without all the facts and both sides are sandbagging and stalling discovery.  It is possible that this trial will not be held until after the season. 

You should also know this:  If the team is adjudicated to be “joint property” and has to be sold, it will be worth much more if it is a viable concern and making money with good revenue streams.  Selling players and doing what many of you predict will not happen because both Frank and Jamie would end up with much less money and both are too greedy to do that.  If ownership of the team is awarded to both parties, then the odds are it will be sold – hopefully to someone with deeper pockets who does not have to pay for debt service out of operating income.  Even at that, it is not inevitable that the team will be sold – however I would expect that as long as the front office remains a strength (and it is), the Dodgers will do just fine.

Our prospects are still bright and we have a plethora of good young arms, led by Billingsley and Kershaw.  Not all will make it, but we only need a few to make it, and within this group are some outstanding prospects:

• Haegar
• Troncoso
• Elbert
• McDonald
• Martin
• Eovaldi
• Miller
• Withrow
• Lindblom
• Webster
• Guerra
• Redding
• Jansen
• Schlichting
• Leach

As many as eight on that above list could see time with the big club this year.  A real dark-horse who could grab a spot in the rotation is Josh Lindblom.  He will be 23 years-old next season, and while he has little starting experience, his 6′ 5″ – 240 lb. frame is what you would pick to be an ideal starter.    I think he would be “lights-out” in the pen, but he will be given an opportunity to start, along with Haegar, Elbert and possibly Troncoso.

Cheer up!  We are not rooting for the Padres!

It’s no secret that the McCourts are in the midst of a messy divorce, but would things be any different if Frank and Jamie were still together?

Would that have caused the Dodgers to offer arbitration to Randy Wolf and/or Orlando Hudson?  Would that have caused the Dodgers to sign Wolf?  Well, no one can be sure, but do you really want 3 years of Randy Wolf?  I mean, two years ago and even last year, many of you didn’t want him back. 

Yeah, the Randy Wolf of 2009 was pretty nice, so nice that he earned the Type A Free Agent Rating, but what are the odds that he stays healthy or continues his level of success in 2010, 2011 and 2012?  I would say the odds are not good.  That’s just my opinion, but I don’t see him as a workhorse.  I do see a guy who could say that he was a Type A Free Agent who had better stats that D-Lowe, and D-Lowe makes $15 mil a year.  That was the most that Wolf stood to make – $15 mil a year, but if he would have asked for, say $13 million a year, he would have had a decent shot at it, especially if the Dodgers offered less than $10 million. 

You might say that the Brewers offered him about $30 mil over 3 years, but what makes you so sure they would have offered the contract if they had to give up compensation?  You don’t know, and there is no way to ever know, but it’s circular thinking to think it would have happened the same way.   I think the Dodgers decided (change that – I know that the Dodgers decided that they did not want to give Randy Wolf a multi-year deal in the $10 mil per year range and they felt he would accept arbitration because (1) he knew he could get $11-15 mil in arbitration ($15 mil is probably too high, but maybe not); and (2) they did not want to commit to a multi-year deal with him.  This is all conjecture, but offering arbitration would have changed the whole dynamic. 

For similar reasons, Orlando Hudson, who did not want to come back to LA, would have jumped at a chance for a $10 million payday.  He was an All-Star and Gold Glove 2B on multiple occasions, and again – a case could be made that he could command up to $10 million a year.  Likely?  MAYBE NOT, BUT POSSIBLE!   It is an extreme example, but it’s possible that the Dodgers could have had 25% of their $100 million payroll tied up with two players.  Again, it may not have been likely, but it was a scenario that the Dodgers had to consider as possible.  If that had happened it would have crippled the Dodgers ability give raises to their youngsters.

Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson made us better in 2009, but I have reason to believe that one of our youngsters can step in and fill their shoes.   McDonald, Troncoso, Elbert, Lindblom and Haeger are in the mix for the first 2 spots behind Billingsley, Kershaw and Kuroda.  Again, come July, more arms will be on the market at a cheaper price.  I see nothing wrong with trying the youngsters and then shopping in July, if necessary.  Should Ned tell you that?  Why play your cards?  This team is going to be very good next year, if only because our players are another year older and more mature.  Blake DeWitt is a “Ballplayer” at 2B, and I would not even sniff at Belliard or Carroll, unless it’s as a utility-man.

Manny Ramirez will also be playing for a new contract and I think he will return with a vengeance.  I also don’t see the Dodgers buying-down Pierre’s contract.  They will keep him or trade him for a pitcher with a “bad contract.”  I still hope for Harang (because I think he has a higher upside than Arroyo), but who knows?  The Dodgers still need bench help, but we already have Xavier Paul, Jason Repko, Juan Pierre and Chin-lung Hu.  Brad Ausmus is a strong possibility again,  and so all we need is another RH infield bat – not Craig Counsell who is LH.

So, back to the question first propounded – would things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  I can’t answer that, but I will ask, should things be any different if the McCourts were a couple?  This is a business and is it prudent to sign players like Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones or, for that matter, Manny Ramirez?  I say no.  I am on record this time last year as saying the Dodgers should not sign Manny (something for which I was castigated), but Manny was mostly a “non-factor.”  Go after “Blue Chip” Players, not “cow chip” players.  If we had went after C.C. Sabathia instead of Manny, we would be talking right now about Hudson or Wolf, and we might have won the Series last year. 

I say that when it comes to Free Agents – Go BIG or Stay Home!  Think about it!  There are no “BIG” ones this year, so we should stay home.  Quit trying to “make a silk purse out of a sows ear.”  So, if you are one of the naysayers who say “The Dodgers Won’t Win With The Pitchers They Have,”  You are probably the same ones who told me the Dodgers wouldn’t win without Manny. They didn’t win WITH him.

I am not going to mention any names (Gammons, Rosethal, Stark, Heyman, Morosi, et al), but I am convinced that some (most or all) of these guys sniff around all their contacts every day and when they hear “Well, we have some interest in so-and-so,” they conclude it’s a done deal.  Most of the rumors the above Alleged “insiders” propound are rubbish.  They have a “feel” for what might, could, will happen and they just extrapolate that into more fact than fiction.  RUBBISH!  Journalists?  More like “National Enquirer Shock Journalists.”  I have seen and heard enough to smell doo-doo when I see (hear) it.  That’s why I typically to refuse to publish such drivel.

Now, I have told you for months that the White Sox would be a good destination for Juan Pierre.  That rumor is flying around the Winter Meetings, but it’s old news.  Even Ray Charles can see the ChiSox would be a good match for Juan, but will the Chi-Sox give up a pitcher for him.  Who could that be?  I don’t have a clue…

Ken Gurnick  (of www.Dodgers.com, who is a great guy by the way) writes that Ned Colletti says that the Dodgers are not shopping Sherrill and that the payroll will not likely go down (this is a good read -I have highlighted important stuff):

INDIANAPOLIS — Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti on Monday disputed reports that he’s shopping reliever George Sherrill at the Winter Meetings and said the Dodgers’ planned payroll for 2010 hasn’t dropped from 2009.

“We’re not shopping anybody,” Colletti said. “I think George Sherrill pitched great for us. He gives us the same component he gave us last year, somebody who can close, can pitch late in the game. He’s a left-handed compliment to the right-handed [Jonathan] Broxton.”

Reports earlier in the day had baseball officials claiming the Dodgers were redirecting other clubs toward Sherrill, who is likely to receive a salary around $4 million through the arbitration process.

Responding to speculation that the divorce of owner Frank McCourt was having a financial impact on player decisions, Colletti said each year’s payroll is impacted by many economic factors. The Dodgers’ payroll last season was around $100 million.

“We’ve got a general idea,” he said of a working 2010 payroll. “This year or 20 years ago in my career, a lot of it depends on how winter unfolds with revenue and different things. You see good signs, it goes up. You don’t see good signs, it probably doesn’t go up. It also depends on the players we’re talking about.”

Asked if next year’s payroll could go down from this year’s, he said: “Not at the moment.”

As for Sherrill, Colletti said the bullpen was one of the team’s strengths in ‘09, and he’d prefer to keep it that way rather than deal from that strength.

“[Dealing Sherrill] would be a rob-Peter-to-pay-Paul type of decision,” he said.

Colletti said there are young relievers in the farm system, but that the club plans to have Scott Elbert and Josh Lindblom open the 2010 season as starters, with James McDonald a possibility for either.

“From time to time, we put starters in the bullpen to help us on the Major League level, but you can’t always rush them,” he said. “You have to have the patience to develop them into starters. We’ll try to maintain patience with Elbert and Lindblom and develop them into starters. Will it work? I can’t tell you that. But the first week of December, that’s what we’re thinking.”

Colletti said he remains focused on adding one or two starting pitchers, a second baseman as security if Blake DeWitt doesn’t pan out and rebuild the bench.

He said the only free agent from last year’s roster that he’s talked to is Brad Ausmus, who hasn’t decided if he will retire. Colletti is interested in bringing back Ausmus as Russell Martin’s backup. He said pitcher Eric Milton, whose season ended with back surgery, would not return. The Dodgers also are in no hurry to sign any free agents coming off a significant injury, but that could change later in the winter.

And Colletti said he’s not alone in taking a patient approach to free agency. He said the players are too, based on what he’s heard from their agents so far.

“They’re not showing me their cards,” he said. “From what I’ve been seeing, it makes [a free-agent signing this week] unlikely.”

Colletti said he spoke to outfielder Juan Pierre (owed $18.5 million for the next two years) about his future. He said Pierre had softened his desire for a trade from a year earlier and told him he would be open to moving him to a team where he would play every day — and likely bring a starting pitcher in return.

“I think he’s in a better place in his own mind about his role and we’ll see what happens,” Colletti said. “He’s someone we’d talk about in the right situation for us and him.”

Also, Gurnick reports that the Dodgers are talking about extending  Joe Torre to manage through 2011 and the presumably take over for Tommy in 2012 (the Big Dodger in the Sky will get him sooner or later).  Interesting….

It was funny to watch Tommy and Ozzie Guillen interacting today….  Two drama Queens!

Maybe some deals tomorrow… or maybe not!

I have been at the hotel for a couple of hours and this I know:

1. Several teams are trying to get Juan Pierre, but they are wanting the Dodgers to pick us a substantial portion of his contract.  That won’t happen.  If the Dodgers have to pay to get rid of him, they will keep him.
2. The Dodgers are entertaining offers for Pierre and George Sherrill (who could make a combined $14 million in 2010) and would be willing to take on another bad contract.  Aaron Harang makes $12.5 mil this year with a $2 mil buyout next year.  Pierre is set to make $8.5 million in 2011, which isn’t as bad as $10 mil this year.  The Reds clearly won’t take on this kind of payroll, so it would take a 3rd team to get involved.  Stay tuned!
3. There Dodgers payroll will not be over $90 million next year as they are “cash poor.”  It may be less!
4. Eric Stults will be sold to Japan (what will he bring?).
5. The Winter meetings are just what I thought – a bunch of old baseball guys standing around lying to each other.  It is funny.
6. The rumor involving the Tigers and Cabrera is fiction – the Dodgers have no interest in Cabrera, and Dee Gordon is at least 18 months away!
7. Josh Lindblom is COVETED by lots of teams!  This guy will be a stud!  You have heard that from me for a while…
8. Congratulations to Doug Harvery and Whitey Herzog for their election to the HOF.
9. You know, if Frank McCourt would just come out and say “I’m sorry, but we are going through some tough times and I have have to keep payroll down this year“, I would be fine – JUST TELL US THE WAY IT IS!  NO SPIN, FRANK!
10. Peter Gammons says “HI.”

The Baseball Winter Meetings are being held in Indianapolis beginning on Monday, December 7th thru Thursday, December 10th.  While MLB would not issue me a credential, I will be there and hopefully get lucky.   The only thing that credentials really do is get you inside the interview room when there are news conferences. I can still walk all over the hotel where everything is going on without a problem and report on all that’s going on. Usually, agents or GMs just stop in the hallways and talk to people and I will be right there.  I have one purpose at these meetings – I would like to get a feel of what is really happening with the Dodgers… and I will! 

Ken made a good point yesterday that maybe the Dodgers had a verbal agreement with Wolf and Hudson that they would not offer them arbitration.  That could be a possibility.  I’ll try and find out.  Besides, who should the Dodgers really try and get?   Halladay?  Lackey?  Martinez?  Wolf?  It would take a lot to get Lackey or Halladay and either one is a prospect for arm and/or injury issues.  I am almost of the opinion that we sign Padilla andor Wolf IFthe market is soft and they don’t get better deals elsewhere.  Then, try and get some pitchers line Noach Lowery, Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, et al for insurance.

I’d sooner see the Dodgers get a power hitter for 2B than spend to get Halladay or Lackey.  I may be crazy, but I would not be afraid to go into the season with Kershaw our #1, Billingsley and Kuroda battling for #2 and Haeger as our #5.  Then, let Elbert, McDonald, Troncoso, Lindblom and other battle for the #4 spot.  Something good will come out of that bunch.  You have to bank on internal growth by your young players.  Shoot, I wouldn’t mind a platoon of Jamie Carroll and Blake DeWitt at 2B or maybe try Adrian Beltre at 2B – he’s an excellent athlete.  Think about it!  We’d have power at the position.

I am most concerned about locking up Kemp, Ethier, Kersahw and Billingsley long term.  Are the Dodgers willing to do that?  We have a plethora of pitching prospects who are a yera or so away – trading for a vet who could have arms issue is felony stupid – witness the Jason Schmidt Debacle.

At any rate, I’ll be at the meeting and I’ll be reporting what I see and hear – or maybe I’ll report half of what I see and none of what I hear…

I had a cheesy grin on my face as I read the Top 200 Prospect list put out by True Blue LA.  The Dodgers do not have 200 Prospects.  They have about 20 PROSPECTS and 180 SUSPECTS!  However, the Dodgers Organization is not nearly as bereft of prospects as some think.  We don’t have a bunch that are major-league ready, but DeJesus, Lindblom, Elbert, Haeger, Schlichting and Leach are all close to ready and while I don’t see any as “superstars” I believe that some of them will be very good players.  However, we are in a position where we don’t need a bunch of young players RIGHT NOW.

Behind the players mentioned above are Gordon, Lambo, Robinson, Van Slyke, Russell, Withrow, Adkins, Martin, Eovaldi, May, Mitchell, Baez, Jansen, Delmonico, Gallagher, Miller and Guerra.  Some of those guys will be complete “busts” and others who are not on the radar will step up.   Additionally, last years draft has yielded some very good prospects. 

All-in-all, we have 4 or 5 young players who could make the team this year and the second wave is another year or two away.  We don’t have the Jacksonville Five, but in 2011 you could see the Lambo Leap! Read the full story

The Dodgers have improved over 2008.   They won more games, but they still couldn’t get past the Phillies, and the Phillies will still be good next year.  I suspect that Raul Ibanez had his career year and will slip back to reality next year and the Phillies will have some holes to fill, just like the Dodgers.  Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have a former ace who needs to come back and I believe both will.  It would not surprise me to see either one win a Cy Young Award in the future, even as easly as next year.  I fully expect Hamels and Billingsley to both win 16-18 games next year.  Both pitchers have too much talent.

Manny will return as Manny, because he’s playingfor Manny,  and the Dodgers should benefit from his quest for a new contract, in what will certainly be his last year as a Dodger.  Look for Manny to hit .320+ with 35 HR and 130 RBI.  I look for more growth by Kemp and Ethier as both become perennialAll-Stars.   Russ Martin?  He’ll be back with a vengeance!  Count on it!    I do see two areas in which the Dodgers need to improve:  They need more power from 3B and 1B and they will get it from James Loney at 1B, who I believe will hit around 25 dingers.  He has shown he is capable.  3B is another issue.  Casey Blake had a better year than I expected, but he’s still a journeyman at best.   We need a big HR bat at 3B and will will get robbed if we try and trade or one.  Here’s what we do:  Sign Adrian Beltre!  Sign Adrian Beltre.   He loves LA and is a cinch to hit 30 for the Dodgers.  Yeah, I know you don’t believe me, but he will!    If you want to look at stats, then I’ll use the year he hit 48 HR as a stat!  He’s young enough that we can sign him to a 5 year deal.   That means we need to dump Blake, and we can do that in a deal for Roy Halliday. I purpose that we trade Jon Broxton, Casey Blake, James McDonald, Ethan Martin,  and Chris Withrow to Toronto for Roy Halliday (pay a lot, get a lot).  I am not a Blake hater, but we need to get younger and better at 3B! Read the full story

The Top 10 - In No Particular Order

I have no clue where this “Debacle in the Ravine will take us, but I’d say Jamie does not have the upper hand.   No, I’m not going to speculate on who we will sign and who we won’t or who we should trade.  Today, I just want to do some “farming.”  Let’s take a look at the Dodgers top prospects. Read the full story

 This team is far from needing rebuilding, but any good team needs to ”retool” every year.  Last year, the Phillies won the World Series with Pat Burrell in LF.  They evidently decided

Must Be A Padre Fan...

 that he wasn’t the answer this year, so they signed a guy even older who ended up having his career year.   The Phillies may yet be sorry that they signed Raul Ibanez, but right about now, that move is looking pretty good.    They added Shane Victorino and Jason Werth in 2005 and 2007 as key pieces to the puzzle.  How did they get them?  No Big Blockbuster Deals, just incidental signings, which turned out to be pretty good.    I don’t think we need to rebuild – the core of the team is in place, but re-tool, we must!

I have taken the 40-Man Roster, plus some others who are technically not on it and divided them into three (3) groups:

1. Core players who we need to keep – in BLUE;
2. Players who we needs to keep under the right conditions – in BLACK; and
3. Players we need to try and lose, trade, release or not sign – in RED.

It’s not hard to see that our core is young and will get even better.  I have Jon Broxton on the BLUE list (even though I have serious doubts about him), because we don’t currently have better options (that too could change).  Now, I am not saying that I wouldn’t trade Broxton or some of the others, but it would have to be a trade that we would make from a point of strength.  Read the full story

Look, several (many) players let us down, but that’s the nature of playoff baseball.  Look at A-Rod, and how he failed his first few years in the playoffs.  Players handle the situation differently.  Some step up (Loney, Martin) and others struggle (Kemp, Ethier), while some vets disapear (Blake, Furcal), which is very, very disappointing.  Casey Blake and Rafael Furcal could have made all the difference. They did hit .279 (combined).  They are both seasoned vets and both could not buy a hit.  That was huge.  Manny wasn’t Manny, and likely never will be again.  I TOLD YOU AND TOLD THAT YOU WE SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNED HIM!  Never doubt me again.   I see some players as “keeper” and others as “trade bait.”  Manny can never take over a game like he used to.  That’s history!

It hurts to see that Victorino and Werth, both former Dodgers hurt us badly, but both players are 30 years old (Victorino is actually close) and you can’t keep a player forever.  Werth was constantly hurt as a Dodger, and Victorino wasn’t all that then.  They are “all that” now!  Good for them, but it took years.  Our guys are mid-20’s.  There’s plenty of time.   

I’m rooting for the Phillies in  the World Series.   I love the Phillies.

If Ethier and Kemp are back in the playoffs next year – look for a different result.  Martin will come back with a vengeance and Kershaw and Billingsley will be a year smarter.  Young Clayton got “schooled” in this series.  Don’t hold your breath waiting for it to happen again.   Chad Billingsley will win 20 next year.  Book it! Read the full story

09/02/09 – LOS ANGELES – The Dodgers’ minor league report is a weekly window into the Dodgers’ minor league system, with updated standings, league leaders, team and individual player stats, and the latest team and player news.  Player bios can be found in the Player Development section of the Dodgers’ Guide (Pages 411-478).

Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes
Pacific Coast League American Southern Division
76-63, 1st Place, 8.5 Games Ahead

DIVISION CHAMPS!! – The Albuquerque Isotopes clinched a playoff berth by winning the PCL American Southern Division…the Isotopes will take on the winner of the American Northern Division in a best-of-five series, which begins Wednesday at Isotopes Park.

AWARDS!! – Manager Tim Wallach was selected as Pacific Coast League Manager of the Year by a vote of fellow managers, league General Managers, and the media…in his first season at the helm, Wallach led the Isotopes to a 76-63 record, second best in the league…Wallach was also named “Best Manager Prospect” by Baseball America in a recent issue…a veteran of 17 Major League seasons as a player, he was a five-time National League All-Star, a three-time Gold Glove Winner, and he twice won the Silver Slugger Award. Read the full story