By actual count, the Dodgers have 32 pitchers in Spring Training Camp who are vying for 12 spots.  I cannot see any way that Joe Torre decides to go with 13 pitchers.  With the off days and all, I think he will break camp with 12 pitchers.  That means that 20 have to go.

There are 11 Non-Roster invitees:

Also on the 40 man roster are McDonald, Link. Zerpa, Wade, Schlichting, Leach and Elbert as players who have a shot at making the team.

The way I see it, unless Stults and/or Haeger really mess up or get traded or go on the DL, they will both make the team.  That would make 11 pitchers.

Monasterios has a shot unless the Dodgers want to lose him (I have never seen him pitch, so I have no clue).  Then there’s Wade (remember how good he was in 2008?), Weaver (great swingman), Miller (solid), Gagne (no way?  way!) and McDonald and Lindblom (the future, who could all go to AAA).

The Dodgers have plethora of arms.  Who will win the arms race?

It should prove to be interesting.

DODGERS TALK:

• According to Steve Dilbeck of THE LA TIMES, the Dodgers are steamed about Ronald Beliasrio.  Sometimes things like this end badly for a player:

“I think it’s a problem now.  The pitchers need all this time. Of course, he did play winter ball. But I can’t really tell you [his condition]  until I see him.”

• Dylan Hernandez and Bill Shaikin report that Garrett Anderson is a Dodger.  This should prove to be interesting as Mientkiewicz, Giles and Anderson compete for one spot.
• Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus writes on ESPN/LA’s Pay Blog that Clayton Kershaw’s new Slider Makes Him a Cy Young Candidate (Thanks to Jon Weisman)
•  Tony Jacksonreports that Ned Colletti is not happy with Belisario either.  I am beginning to think the guy is a knucklehead!  Tony also reported this:

 The situation ultimately could cost Belisario a considerable amount of money, as well. He has only one year of big-league service time, meaning he will have a split contract with a major-league salary of no more than about $415,000 this season, and he won’t even get that much if he is in the minors.There also is a provision, known as Regulation 6, in the current Basic Agreement between owners and the players’ union that would allow the Dodgers to suspend Belisario without pay and require him to stay behind in extended spring training when the team breaks camp if he doesn’t report at least 33 days before the start of the season.The Dodgers’ season opener is April 5 at Pittsburgh, meaning Belisario already has missed that deadline and the Dodgers already have that option.”In the event of the failure of the Player to report for practice or to participate in the exhibition games, as required or provided for,” the regulation reads, “he shall be required to get into playing condition to the satisfaction of the Club’s team manager, and at the Player’s own expense, before his salary shall commence.”The phrase “to the satisfaction of the Club’s team manager” means the length of such a suspension would be entirely at the Dodgers’ discretion.

Our 2010 Starting Rotation

Well, if you ask me… and you didn’t (but I’m going to tell you anyway), it’s Young Clayton.  Maybe it’s a rush job, but maybe it’s not.  Maybe he’s ready.  Not “maybe” – he ISready!   I think it’s likely that Clayton Kershaw will be even better this year.  His ERA might not reflect that, but he will pitch deeper into games and flirt with 20 wins this year.  After Clayton, will come Chad Billingsley, followedby Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, with the 5th Spot being Eric Stults to lose.

Unless Charlie Haeger is a disaster during the spring, he will battle Jeff Weaver for the “swingman” spot in the pen.  The rest of the bullpen is less clear.  We do know that Jon Broxton, George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso, Hong chih Kuo and James McDonald will probably all make the team barring injury.  I just can’t see Weaver and Haeger both making the team, as they are competing for the same position, but if it comes down to it, they will keep Charlie and send Jeff to AAA (at least for a few weeks under the guise of building arm strength).

That leaves a lot of pitchers up for grabs, including Ronnie Belisario, whom Joe Torre may want to demote for a while after his Visa problems two years in a row.   We also have Cory Wade, who could flat-out make the team out of Spring training, and Carlos Monasterios (who could be bought or have another player sent to his former team, and demoted).  Lindblom, Zerpa, Miller, Towers and Elbert all seem slated for AAA.

While it would be a “feel good” story and great if it happened, the odds are against Eric Gagne making the team.  Would he accept an assignment to AAA?  Maybe for a few weeks, but hey, this is Spring – anything can happen.

Let’s not forget, however, that there is always a pitching surprise.  Belisario was the big one last year.  Who will it be this year?

Rants & Raves

• I keep thinking about it and I can’t see Brian Giles or Doug Mientkiewicz making the team, especially if Xavier Paul has a rousing Spring
• Ronnie Belliard has to weigh below 210 pounds tomorrow – if he doesn’t, is he off the team.  At any rate, I don’t see him as a starter.  He’s a role-player (like last year).
• Russ Martin will be the All-Star Catcher in the NL this year – Write that down!
• Oh, and in case you don’t understand – I still say Clayton Kershaw will be our Opening Day Starter.

… nor am I a hater.  I see the good he has done as the owner of the Dodgers.  I see the mistakes he has made as well.  However, he seems to have learned each time he makes a mistake.   Overall, the Dodgers are in much better shape than when he took over.  His lifestyle seems excessive – in my business, I work with the rich and famous and don’t really care about all their “stuff.”  My “stuff” is fine.  If I had their money, I wouldn’t live the way they live… but that’s just me.  If they want to live excessively (my opinion) that’s their gig. 

However, I am sick of this Dodger Divorce.  It’s a soap opera and I will no longer talk about it until the case is decided.  I’ll take it a step further – I’ll delete any posts or comments on this issue.  I don’t want to hear about it.  It’s something I don’t care about.  I don’t care about “what if.”  I care about “what is.”  The Dodgers IS.

That’s what I want to focus on:  The Dodgers.  The baseball part of the business.  The players.  The coaches.  The minor leagues.  That’s all.  If I can’t do that, I’ll shut this blog down.

This is a Dodger blog – not a McCourt blog.  I don’t want it.  I won’t have it and I’m done with it.  “Frank, I don’t live for you, and hopefully you get that.”

This blog is about Matt Kemp, Jon Broxton, Eric Gagne, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Clayton Kershaw, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin and all the rest of the boys.

I am not against Frank McCourt… nor am I for him.

Whatever happens, happens – the Dodgers will thrive, or survive under Frank McCourt.

This is a Dodgers Zone!

Nothing else!

Pitchers and Catchers report on February 2o, 2010 and the first workout is February 21, 2010, so I am going to take a few days off.  I’ll be back on the 20th or 21st. 

I’ll leave you with a few things to cuss and discuss:

• Is it possible that the Combination of Reed Johnson and Brian Giles will be even better than Juan Pierre last year?  Think about that one really hard.
• Why can’t a guy who hit over .300 for the first two months of 2008 and is in his 6th professional season make the transition to everyday 2B?  Think about this:  9 trips!  That has to have an effect, but also serves to help you grow up real quick.  Is it possible we will see the 2008 April and May Blake DeWitt all year?
• Jamey Carroll can play every infield position and every outfield position (he hasn’t played SS for a couple of years, but he can in an emergency) and hits nearly .350 as a pinch hiiter.  Do you think he might have some value? 
• Could this be THE year Kuroda is injury-free (remember, it’s not his arm that has been the problem)?
• Does anyone in their right mind think that sometime  between September 2008 and August 2009, Manny Ramirez just “lost it?’   OR, is it possible you could see him be a beast in the least year of his contract?
• What are the chances in July or August that a team who (1) loses a closer to injury, or (2)  has a closer who is not getting the job done, elects to trade for Ronnie Belisario and/or George Sherrill?
• The Dodgers will have a shuttle to and from Albaquacky (I can’t spell Albuquerque) all year -especially for the pitching staff.  At any given time, we could have Troncoso,  Wade, Schlichting, Leach, Lindblom, Miller and Felix there at any given minute.  Expect to see a lot of movement to and from there.
• DARKHORSE:  Ivan DeJesus, Jr. – Could he “sieze the day at 2B?s  Brian Barton (who?) – You never know!!!
• Charles Haeger is out of options and so is Eric Stults.  If, for no other reason than that, they will be given a shot at being the #5.   Because of that, I think Scott Elbert starts the year at AAA.  James McDonald might end up back in AAA so that he can start as well, but I think he’ll play out better as a reliever.  We’ll see.
• Could it be that the Dodgers won’t have a  true SS as a backup this year?  Carroll could well be the emergency SS and Hu and Green would only be a cab ride away. 
• There’s a real chance Amezaga won’t play this year.
• I think the Dodgers will go with 11 pitchers in April.
• Belliard is not a lock to make the team!

This could be your Opening Day Lineup & Roster:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Ethier  RF
5. Manny  LF
6. Loney  1B
7. Blake  3B
8. DeWitt  2B
9. Billingsley  P

Reserves:

1. Carroll
2. Belliard or Doug M ( I can’t spell Mientkiewicz)
3. Giles
4. Johnson
5. Ausmus

Pitchers:

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Haeger
6. Stults
7. Kuo
8. Sherrill
9. Belisario
10. Troncoso
11. Broxton

I’ll be in Carmelback from March 20-27, 2010.  See you there.

Carry on!

Written by Ken (“the views expressed herein are not necessarily the opinions of yada, yada, yada” – Legal Disclaimer)

Many years ago Joe Isuzu appeared in several commercials, graduated to a sit com, and then slowly faded away. Recently, Joe Torre also graduated from his Big Elow commercials to cameo appearances in several television series. In this parallel universe it may be time for him to also slowly fade away. Ken, and why do you say this?

I use the Joe Isuzu comparison because Joe Torre appears to be managing the Dodgers like Toyota is managing their car quality and production. From now on I may just call Joe Torre – Joe Toyota.

I am tired of watching Joe Toyota’s accelerator stick causing certain position players to not have enough off days during the season and then crashing in October. In 2010, Blake, Ramirez, Martin and Furcal need more days parked in the garage then in prior years. Joe Toyota, fix your accelerator and allow these position players to pace themselves at an appropriate speed so that they will have the gas left to hit above the Mendoza line in October. Some of the young players only need a few days off to change their oil. However, when observing the age of a car and the more specialized the use of a car, any good mechanic will implement an appropriate preventive maintenance program. Apply the brakes to certain players and give them more rest days so that they can properly recharge their batteries.

I am tired of watching Joe Toyota’s accelerator stick causing him to leave pitchers on the mound like the second coming of Grady Little. It did not take a rocket scientist to see that for several months last year Billingsley had physical, and possibly mental, endurance issues and hit the wall 100 minutes into the game regardless of how many pitches he threw, just like the limitations of the battery of an electric car. If Joe Toyota does not know how to recharge Billingley’s battery, then Joe Toyota should not drive Billingsley in a direction that will cause the battery to die before he returns home (reaches the 6th inning).

I am tired of watching Joe Toyota’s accelerator stick causing him to treat Broxton’s rocket engine like a 4 cylinder engine that can be driven everyday on a 100 mile commute. Joe Toyota, you must know when to apply the brakes. It did not take a rocket scientist to see that Broxtonrarely had any skills in the second inning of a game, after resting for 3 or more days, or pitching three days in a row. You just can not start a rocket engine every day or let it sit for four days in a row and expect it to operate properly for the entire year. I am tired of watching Joe Toyota’s accelerator stick causing him to leave hitters in the game when they refuse to swing at strikes, refuse to hit the ball the other way, and then pull an outside pitch to third base resulting in a ground-ball that starts a double play or kills a rally. Joe Toyota, when are you going to apply the brakes, order the player sent to the shop, and put them up on the rack for a detailed skills inspection?

If the Joe Toyota’s managerial performance is not changed by Cinco de Mayo, then I suggest the following recall:

1. Convert “Bob” to another special assistant to the GM and let him travel 5 days a week and visit the Dodger minor league teams,
2. Let Ausmus call the game and give the signs to the catcher when he is not playing. (Honeycutt can concentrate on teaching the pitchers how to pitch)
3. Let Mattingly give signs to the base coaches when the Dodgers are hitting (This will assist management in determining whether he actually is a viable managerial candidate), and
4. Let Torre concentrate on motivating the players and give them a safe environment.

The Dodger roster is finally coming together and now the discussions are changing from where is the rest of the team to why did they sign these slugs.  For the 2010 season the Dodger management, more than ever, must attempt to simultaneously win the NL West, delay the major league start dates of the future prospects (and their higher salaries), and have a fresh batch of players ready to graduate from the minors to the majors in case any of the players on the 25 man roster go on the DL for any significant length of time.  This is no small task to simultaneously accomplish these, and possibly other, partially contradictory objectives.

Most of us are of the opinion that the Dodger management is behaving as if without trading a player like Sherrill, the Dodgers do not have the budget, or the prospects, to go out and find replacements during the 2010 season.  Supporting this view is the Dodgers stockpiling of veterans on the 25 man bench, has beens in AAA, and prospects in AAA and AA.

In my opinion this is the correct approach for the 2010 season.  One factor is the increasing salary of the Dodger’s young stars.  Even with Manny, Kuroda, Padilla, and a few others probably not coming back for 2011 or 2012, the Dodger projected player salaries for those two future years is already more than $80 mil. With a 2011 team salary of $85 mil that is missing at least 2 starter pitchers, 1-2 position players, and several bench players, I conclude that the Dodger’s organizational Budget and Payroll is going to be a major issue for several years. 

Therefore, the Dodgers can no longer afford to sign multiple free agents.  Now they must develop the young players.  This approach may cause consternation among those of us that hope for a World Series title this decade. The current economic reality is the new reality and I for one will not be an ostrich and pretend otherwise.  (I am not a Politician) Maybe we can hope for another season with players who play most of the season in the zone like 1988.  Who will rise to the top this year?  Will the Coaches allow the players to pace themselves in 2010?  Will the pitchers learn how to trust their stuff, use the same correct pitching motion more than 50 percent of the time, and will the starters be forced to maintain a level of endurance that is necessary for them to actually make more than 90 pitches in a game?

Considering the Dodger’s unfunded future payroll obligations I am content with the following pitching plan for 2010:

Starting Pitching

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Stults

Long Relief

1. Weaver (Add to 40-man roster at the end of spring training)
   1. Heager
   2. Monasterios or Zerpa (Waive one of them at the end of spring training)

Short Relief

1. Broxton
2. Sherrill  (Candidate for a Trade)
3. Belisario
4. Kuo

Starters building innings at AAA or AA for 2011 rotation opportunity

1. McDonald
2. Lindblum
3. Troncoso
4. Elbert
5. Link

Starting Pitching alternatives in case of a starter going on the 15 day DL

1. McDonald
2. Troncoso
3. Elbert
4. Link

Starting Pitching additional alternatives in case of a starter going on the 60 day DL

1. Josh Lindblum
2. Russ Ortiz
3. Ramon Ortiz
4. Alberto Bastardo

Relievers building experience for 2011 bullpen opportunity

1. Wade
2. Schlitling
3. Leach
4. Jensen
5. Guerra

Reliever alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 15 day DL

1. Wade
2. Schlitling
3. Leach
4. Jensen
5. Guerra

Reliever additional alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 60 day DL

1. Justin Miller
2. Luis Ayala
3. Francisco Felix
4. Josh Towers

Some people are saying that the Dodgers are a .500 team (when I say “some people” I don’t mean “informed baseball people”), which I think is just plain delusional.  I think sometimes Dodger fans fail to take into consideration that change is inevitable, and often, it is good.  Will everything be OK?  Seth Godin summed it up today by saying:

It’s natural to seek reassurance. Most of us want to believe that the choices we make will work out, that everything will be okay.

Artists and those that launch the untested, the new and the emotional (and I’d put marketers into all of these categories) wrestle with this need all the time. How can we proceed knowing that there’s a good chance that our actions will fail, that things might get worse, that everything won’t end up okay? In search of solace, we seek reassurance.

So people lie to us. So we lie to ourselves.

No, everything is not going to be okay. It never is. It isn’t okay now. Change, by definition, changes things. It makes some things better and some things worse. But everything is never okay.

Finding the bravery to shun faux reassurance is a critical step in producing important change. Once you free yourself from the need for perfect acceptance, it’s a lot easier to launch work that matters.

Will the Dodgers be OK?  We are so much in the middle of the Forest that we can’t see the trees, or is it we can’t see the Forest for the trees?  I will leaf that alone.  What I will say is that we often look at how a player performed last year and extrapolate that into the next.  What we fail to factor in is that we have a very young team and these guys often get better by leaps and bounds.  In some cases you can count on it.  I think we forget how far some of our young player have come, how much they have matured and how they will almost certainly continue down that same path. 

In the middle of the long, cold winter, I usually pick-up a copy of Lindy’s Fantasy Baseball(I never play it myself), because over the years, I have found that their takes are pretty close to the reality.  I don’t know for sure, but I think that they use a variety of statistical analysis as well as scouting resources to reach their conclusions.  At any rate, I have read them for many years and their accuracy rate is exceptional when predicting what players might do.  I thought I’d share a few of their predictions:

• Russell Martin is the 7th Highest Ranked Catcher in Baseball behind Soto, Posada, Wieters, McCann, Martinez and Mauer – no surprise there. He is rated ahead of Suzuki, Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, Yadier Molina,  Chris Iannetta and Mike Napoli.  I caught a lot of heat from some of you for ranking him that high, but you can see I’m not the only one!   (Projection:  .269/9 HR/58 RBI/470 AB)  Comments:  “He inexplicably morphed into Jason  Kendall with slightly more pop, slipping even in stolen bases, a category he once dominated.  He’ll either return to fantasy relevance or fade into oblivion this season.”
• James Loneyis the 15th Highest Rated First Baseman is Baseball ranked ahead of Chris Davis, Paul Konerko, Adam LaRoche, Jorge Cantu, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Casey Kotchman and Aubrey Huff (Projection:  .281/18 HR/30 DBL/92 RBI) Comments:  “There’s a lack of sizzle and a whole lot of Mark Grace going on here.  A more critical peek at his numbers reveals Loney is becoming more patient (70 walks last season), suggesting a brighter future.  He’s due for a spike … don’t bet on an explosion.”
• Of course, the Dodgers don’t have anyone rated at 2B, but I do hope they give Blake DeWitt the opportunity.  If he and Carroll can’t cut it, then we can make a deal.  Second-basemen are a dime a dozen and that All-Star you all wanted back (Orlando Hudson) is only the 16th rated at his position (and he wants $9 mil a year?  HA!).
• Casey Blake is ranked #17 at 3B, right ahead of Casey McGhee, Andy LaRoche, Garrett Atkins, Jhonny Peralta, Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigington and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  (Projection:  .276/18 HR/ 76 RBI).  The words they use as “consistent” and “solid.”  Certainly, he ’s no star, but we could do worse.  
• Raffy Furcal is ranked the #14 SS and Lindys calls him “No longer an elite fantasy option, as injuries have robbed him of his speed and power.”  (Projection: .283/10 HR/51 RBI/15 SB)  If he can put up those numbers with a .360 OB%, we will be fine. “Hurry up Dee Gordon!”
• Ryan Braun is rated the #1 outfielder, but #2 is none other than our Matt Kemp (Projection: .302/35 DBL/8 TRIP/31 HR/105 RBI/38 SB).  Those are “elite” numbers.  Andre Ethier is rated #16 (Projection: .293/36 DBL/30 HR/102 RBI) and Manny Ramirez is #18 (Projection: .302/26 HR/86 RBI).  They say that they still believe “Ethier will win a batting title” and that “Manny still has an elite batting eye and isn’t done being relevant in our game.”  If that prediction holds up for our outfielders, the Dodgers should be very good offensively.  In fact, that should be baseballs best offensive outfield.
• When it comes to pitching, Lindys has Clayton Kershaw at #16, just ahead of Cliff Lee!  Chris Carpenter was #15.  Other pitchers ranked behind Kershaw are:  Vazquez, Cain, Beckett, Jimenez, Webb, Peavy, Shields and Lackey who was rated #25, just ahead of Chad Billingsley at #26.  (Projections:  Kershaw- 16-6/2.88 ERA /198 IP/156 H/210 K/1.24 WHIP; Billingsley – 14-11/3.72 ERA/202 IP/180 H/188 K/1.29 WHIP).  Here’s what they say about Clayton:  “He’s a still a work in progress, last summer adding a slider to compliment his mid-90’s fastball and all-world curveball.  Check out Fangraphs.com for more on his slider and put a check next to his name on your cheatsheet.  He’s going to be unstoppable in the very near future.”  Yeah, like maybe in 2010?  Billingsley was rated ahead of the likes of Baker, Garza, Rodriguerz, Lilly, Weaver, Dempster, Nolasco, Anderson, Oswalt, Burnett, Bucholz, Jurrjens, Danks, Jackson and Harden.  They regards the 2nd half of 2009 as a “hiccup.”  Hiroki Kuroda was ranked #49, ahead of Hudson, Kazmir, Maine, Sherzer, Saunders, Pineiro, Zambrano and Randy Wolf (who was #65, and they predict 10 wins with an ERA over 4.00 for him).  They project Kuroda at 11-8 with a 3.63 ERA/182 IP and ad WHIP of 1.20.  Of Kuroda they said “his underlying numbers are solid and the injuries were not arm-related.“  Vicente Padilla weighed in at #96 (not bad for a #4), just behind Jon Garland at #95.  They project him at 12-10 with a 4.33 ERA and 169 IP with a 1.43 WHIP.
• Which brings us to Jon Broxton, ranked #5 as a closer.  Here’s the crux of what they say about him (sounds like what I say):  “Perhaps a visit with a sports psychologist is in order…”  ‘Nuff said!  George Sherrill is rated #40 and Lindys thinks he could close more on the road, especially against LH’ers (where Brox has his issues).

So, while Lindy’s is not Bill James or Fangraphs, it’s still very useful, and I have found that their projections are quite accurate.  I think a lot of Dodger fans depreciate the value of a lot of our young players, as well as our role-players.  The 2010 Version of the LA Dodgers is destined to be VERY, VERY GOOD!  Now, depending upon what happens with the divorce, we could be buyers in August.  Get ready for a great season!  I see at leat 93 wins!

DODGER NEWS:

• Jon Weisman has an excellent post on the Dodgers lack of resources at this juncture.
• The Phillies have $130 million committed to 14 players in 2011, which means they may not be abale to sign Jason Werth.  Hummmm…
• The Dodgers could sign Noah Lowery as soon as NOW!

Los Angeles – In what has to be somewhat of a surprise, the Dodgers made two major announcements today.  The first announcement has to do with the divorce proceedings of Frank and Jamie McCourt who agreed to a continuance of their May hearing:

The McCourt’s announced that they have resolved their personal issues and that Jamie will keep all personal property, vehicles, art and personal items.  She also agreed to a $100,000,000.00 payment (payable over 5 years at 6% interest) from Frank McCourt, and assumes her role as CEO of the Dodgers Dream Foundation which will be funded by a $8 million a year grant from the Dodgers.  In return, Frank McCourt gets sole ownership of the Dodgers and has agreed to hire all their sons as club executives. 

Next, Ned Colletti took the dais and said that this is a big burden off the Dodgers and made the following announcement:  “The Dodgers have just completed a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Mariners, who have fallen 26 games below .500. whereby  Chris Withrow, Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert, Casey Blake and  James McDonald have been traded to the Blue Jays for Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Felix Hernandez.  Hernandez has agreed to to a six-year/$125 million deal and Lee has agreed to a 4 year/$90 mil deal.  Our lineup will look like this right now:

1. Figgins  3B
2. Furcal SS
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Martin  C
7. Loney  1B
8. DeWitt 2B

Our Rotation now looks like this as we ready for the stretch run:

Hernandez, Lee, Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda.

Colletti continued:  “With the expiring contracts of Ramirez and Kuroda, we we able to take on more payroll since the ownership issue was resolved and our lenders opened their pockets again.  If we had made all the dope-fiend moves suggested on LaDodgerTalk.com, we would have never had the flexibility to pull this off.  Sure, we gave up a lot, but we are going to win this thing!   I’m glad I listened to Mark Timmons….”

At the age of 24 J.A. Happ of the Phillies was in AAA where he complied a 4-6 record with a 5.02 ERA.  At the age of 25, also in AAA, he improved to 8-7 with a 3.60 ERA, and also had a “cup of coffee” with the Phillies where he went 1-0 with a 3.69 ERA in 31 innings.   However at age 26, he had his “breakout year” and went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA while pitching more innings that he ever had (166).  

I point this out because 2009 was Happ’s 6th season in the Phillie system.   2010 will be Scott Elbert’s 7th season,  Eric Stults’ 9th, James McDonald’s 6th (as a pitcher), Charlie Haeger’s 9th professional season, and Carlos Monasterios’ 5th pro season.  It’s not foolish or wishful thinking to believe that one, maybe two of these guys could step up and fill a rotation spot.  I’m sure that the Dodgers would rather not COUNT on this, but the fact of the matter is that one of those pitchers could easily step up and make it happen. 

I would guess that Charlie Haeger would be the top candidate for the 5th spot, but who can deny James McDonald’s outstanding stuff?  It could be his time to” go J.A. Happ!”  This is what makes baseball so much fun – just when you think you have it figured out, YOU DON’T!  These kids just have a way of stepping up when you least expect it.

I am going to go one step further and say that I still believe there could be a three or four-way trade involving Russ Martin, Jon Broxton, George Sherrill and prospects, which would net us a Top Starter.  If his market stays suppressed, the Dodgers could then sign Molina to a two-year deal.

Around the League:

• The Giants got the LH power bat they were seeking by signing Aubrey Huff (be still my heart).  He is capable of having a very good year now and again, but he’s a journeyman…
• The Reds allegedly have signed Aroldis Chapman.  Hummmmm…

Last off-season, I predicted that it would not be Manny who made the team better, but rather “the kids.” 

Little did I know what would happen to Manny and how he would later struggle.  If the Manny Ramirez of 2008 had played in 2009, the Dodgers might still be shaking the confetti out of their shoes, because the kids made huge strides. 

Well, some did (Kershaw, Kemp, Ethier), some stayed the same (Loney, Broxton) and some regressed (Martin and Billingsley).  I am here to once again submit that Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson would not make us World Series Champs in 2010, but again, it on the kids – Kemp and Loney and Kershaw have to keep marching toward greatness.  Billingsley and Martin have to return to form and Broxton and Loney need to crank it up another notch. 

I believe we have at least four good starting pitchers on our team, but what might win it for us is a late spring or trade deadline deal.  Come July, we may have to decide if we want to trade Chris Withrow, Ivan DeJesus, Jr.  and Andrew Lambo for someones Ace!  Of course, that depends upon a lot of factors, including how those players are doing, but we have the horses to do a deal. 

The Dodgers didn’t want to pay Randy Wolf, who is a guy who averages 148 IP  a year and has a career 4.13 ERA, a long-term deal and they didn’t want to get stuck paying him even $9 mil a year.  There were time last year when Randy Wolf was our best pitcher, but in 2010, he could just as easily be our #5 or worse yet, injured!  If Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda and Haeger can pitch 800 innings, Randy Wolf will be a distant memory.

The Mets who are intent on spending money, recently had their GM recently say that their starting rotation would be Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and Jonathon Niese.  Santana has arm issues and the rest hardly strike fear into anyone’s hearts.  I think WE can do better, by standing pat for the time being.  Dodger fans are crying “Wolf” but come July, they may find they have been out-foxed!  Sometimes the best moves you make are the ones you don’t. 

MORE NEWS:

Interesting List of Top Dodger Prospects by John Sickels.  Here’s a quote from the post:

The Dodgers are strong on the pitching side: Martin and Miller could both be B+ guys a year from now, maybe even an A- if their command really sharpens up. Withrow could rank as the number one prospect ahead of Dee Gordon if you prefer pitching to hitting. His ceiling is terrific, although I’d like to see his walk rate come down. He has Homer Bailey-like risk if they rush him too fast. Elbert’s stuff is right up there with the other pitchers, but there are enough chinks in his armor (command, health history) to keep his grade slightly lower in my mind. I’m probably higher on Gould than some folks, but I see him in the same mold as the others if he develops properly. Other live arms such as Jansen, Eovaldi, Webster, and Wallach all have significant potential but enough doubts or lack of data right now to keep their ratings in the C+ range.

The hitters are led by the electric Dee Gordon, who will need some time to put his game together but has big upside. Possible comp: Rafael Furcal, circa 2000-2006. DeJesus doesn’t have the same ceiling but still has a chance to be a very useful player if his leg is OK. I haven’t given up on Lambo yet, not at age 21.

The hitting in beyond that is thin: there is a mixture of tools guys and polish guys, but they all have questionmarks of one sort of another. Adding some additional impact hitting depth for the system seems like a good idea; we’ll have to see if they address that in the 2010 draft.

Trades and graduations have thinned the system out, but overall I think Logan White and his staff do a fine job and the potential for a quick recharge seems good to me.

I am not going to mention any names (Gammons, Rosethal, Stark, Heyman, Morosi, et al), but I am convinced that some (most or all) of these guys sniff around all their contacts every day and when they hear “Well, we have some interest in so-and-so,” they conclude it’s a done deal.  Most of the rumors the above Alleged “insiders” propound are rubbish.  They have a “feel” for what might, could, will happen and they just extrapolate that into more fact than fiction.  RUBBISH!  Journalists?  More like “National Enquirer Shock Journalists.”  I have seen and heard enough to smell doo-doo when I see (hear) it.  That’s why I typically to refuse to publish such drivel.

Now, I have told you for months that the White Sox would be a good destination for Juan Pierre.  That rumor is flying around the Winter Meetings, but it’s old news.  Even Ray Charles can see the ChiSox would be a good match for Juan, but will the Chi-Sox give up a pitcher for him.  Who could that be?  I don’t have a clue…

Ken Gurnick  (of www.Dodgers.com, who is a great guy by the way) writes that Ned Colletti says that the Dodgers are not shopping Sherrill and that the payroll will not likely go down (this is a good read -I have highlighted important stuff):

INDIANAPOLIS — Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti on Monday disputed reports that he’s shopping reliever George Sherrill at the Winter Meetings and said the Dodgers’ planned payroll for 2010 hasn’t dropped from 2009.

“We’re not shopping anybody,” Colletti said. “I think George Sherrill pitched great for us. He gives us the same component he gave us last year, somebody who can close, can pitch late in the game. He’s a left-handed compliment to the right-handed [Jonathan] Broxton.”

Reports earlier in the day had baseball officials claiming the Dodgers were redirecting other clubs toward Sherrill, who is likely to receive a salary around $4 million through the arbitration process.

Responding to speculation that the divorce of owner Frank McCourt was having a financial impact on player decisions, Colletti said each year’s payroll is impacted by many economic factors. The Dodgers’ payroll last season was around $100 million.

“We’ve got a general idea,” he said of a working 2010 payroll. “This year or 20 years ago in my career, a lot of it depends on how winter unfolds with revenue and different things. You see good signs, it goes up. You don’t see good signs, it probably doesn’t go up. It also depends on the players we’re talking about.”

Asked if next year’s payroll could go down from this year’s, he said: “Not at the moment.”

As for Sherrill, Colletti said the bullpen was one of the team’s strengths in ‘09, and he’d prefer to keep it that way rather than deal from that strength.

“[Dealing Sherrill] would be a rob-Peter-to-pay-Paul type of decision,” he said.

Colletti said there are young relievers in the farm system, but that the club plans to have Scott Elbert and Josh Lindblom open the 2010 season as starters, with James McDonald a possibility for either.

“From time to time, we put starters in the bullpen to help us on the Major League level, but you can’t always rush them,” he said. “You have to have the patience to develop them into starters. We’ll try to maintain patience with Elbert and Lindblom and develop them into starters. Will it work? I can’t tell you that. But the first week of December, that’s what we’re thinking.”

Colletti said he remains focused on adding one or two starting pitchers, a second baseman as security if Blake DeWitt doesn’t pan out and rebuild the bench.

He said the only free agent from last year’s roster that he’s talked to is Brad Ausmus, who hasn’t decided if he will retire. Colletti is interested in bringing back Ausmus as Russell Martin’s backup. He said pitcher Eric Milton, whose season ended with back surgery, would not return. The Dodgers also are in no hurry to sign any free agents coming off a significant injury, but that could change later in the winter.

And Colletti said he’s not alone in taking a patient approach to free agency. He said the players are too, based on what he’s heard from their agents so far.

“They’re not showing me their cards,” he said. “From what I’ve been seeing, it makes [a free-agent signing this week] unlikely.”

Colletti said he spoke to outfielder Juan Pierre (owed $18.5 million for the next two years) about his future. He said Pierre had softened his desire for a trade from a year earlier and told him he would be open to moving him to a team where he would play every day — and likely bring a starting pitcher in return.

“I think he’s in a better place in his own mind about his role and we’ll see what happens,” Colletti said. “He’s someone we’d talk about in the right situation for us and him.”

Also, Gurnick reports that the Dodgers are talking about extending  Joe Torre to manage through 2011 and the presumably take over for Tommy in 2012 (the Big Dodger in the Sky will get him sooner or later).  Interesting….

It was funny to watch Tommy and Ozzie Guillen interacting today….  Two drama Queens!

Maybe some deals tomorrow… or maybe not!

I had a cheesy grin on my face as I read the Top 200 Prospect list put out by True Blue LA.  The Dodgers do not have 200 Prospects.  They have about 20 PROSPECTS and 180 SUSPECTS!  However, the Dodgers Organization is not nearly as bereft of prospects as some think.  We don’t have a bunch that are major-league ready, but DeJesus, Lindblom, Elbert, Haeger, Schlichting and Leach are all close to ready and while I don’t see any as “superstars” I believe that some of them will be very good players.  However, we are in a position where we don’t need a bunch of young players RIGHT NOW.

Behind the players mentioned above are Gordon, Lambo, Robinson, Van Slyke, Russell, Withrow, Adkins, Martin, Eovaldi, May, Mitchell, Baez, Jansen, Delmonico, Gallagher, Miller and Guerra.  Some of those guys will be complete “busts” and others who are not on the radar will step up.   Additionally, last years draft has yielded some very good prospects. 

All-in-all, we have 4 or 5 young players who could make the team this year and the second wave is another year or two away.  We don’t have the Jacksonville Five, but in 2011 you could see the Lambo Leap! Read the full story

It turns out that the Dodgers have 34 minor league free agents, which is more than any other team.  What does that mean?  Does it mean that our farm system is depleted?  Well, we did trade away a few prospects (Santana, Bell, Johnson, Young, LaRoche, Meloan, et al), but the biggest culprit of why we have so many older “career minor leaguers” is simply our success.  In a 2 or 3 year period of time, we had so many players graduate from the farm to the big club that we needed a few “placeholders” – guys like Chick, Choi, Strickland, Maza, Luna and Brown.  Just think about it.  We have promoted Martin, Kemp, Ethier, Loney, DeWitt, Billingsley, Broxton, Kershaw, Troncoso, Kuo and others.  I don’t think the farms is gutted – it’s just that we have a lot of lower level prospects, who will start moving up next year.  Anyway, here’s the list (below), and we will lose some of these guys, but some will be back.  Frankly, I can’t see any occupying a roster spot.  It may mean Goodbye to Greg Miller.  Maybe he needs a new start and with his “live” arm, someone will give him a shot. Read the full story

The Dodgers have improved over 2008.   They won more games, but they still couldn’t get past the Phillies, and the Phillies will still be good next year.  I suspect that Raul Ibanez had his career year and will slip back to reality next year and the Phillies will have some holes to fill, just like the Dodgers.  Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have a former ace who needs to come back and I believe both will.  It would not surprise me to see either one win a Cy Young Award in the future, even as easly as next year.  I fully expect Hamels and Billingsley to both win 16-18 games next year.  Both pitchers have too much talent.

Manny will return as Manny, because he’s playingfor Manny,  and the Dodgers should benefit from his quest for a new contract, in what will certainly be his last year as a Dodger.  Look for Manny to hit .320+ with 35 HR and 130 RBI.  I look for more growth by Kemp and Ethier as both become perennialAll-Stars.   Russ Martin?  He’ll be back with a vengeance!  Count on it!    I do see two areas in which the Dodgers need to improve:  They need more power from 3B and 1B and they will get it from James Loney at 1B, who I believe will hit around 25 dingers.  He has shown he is capable.  3B is another issue.  Casey Blake had a better year than I expected, but he’s still a journeyman at best.   We need a big HR bat at 3B and will will get robbed if we try and trade or one.  Here’s what we do:  Sign Adrian Beltre!  Sign Adrian Beltre.   He loves LA and is a cinch to hit 30 for the Dodgers.  Yeah, I know you don’t believe me, but he will!    If you want to look at stats, then I’ll use the year he hit 48 HR as a stat!  He’s young enough that we can sign him to a 5 year deal.   That means we need to dump Blake, and we can do that in a deal for Roy Halliday. I purpose that we trade Jon Broxton, Casey Blake, James McDonald, Ethan Martin,  and Chris Withrow to Toronto for Roy Halliday (pay a lot, get a lot).  I am not a Blake hater, but we need to get younger and better at 3B! Read the full story

The Top 10 - In No Particular Order

I have no clue where this “Debacle in the Ravine will take us, but I’d say Jamie does not have the upper hand.   No, I’m not going to speculate on who we will sign and who we won’t or who we should trade.  Today, I just want to do some “farming.”  Let’s take a look at the Dodgers top prospects. Read the full story

 This team is far from needing rebuilding, but any good team needs to ”retool” every year.  Last year, the Phillies won the World Series with Pat Burrell in LF.  They evidently decided

Must Be A Padre Fan...

 that he wasn’t the answer this year, so they signed a guy even older who ended up having his career year.   The Phillies may yet be sorry that they signed Raul Ibanez, but right about now, that move is looking pretty good.    They added Shane Victorino and Jason Werth in 2005 and 2007 as key pieces to the puzzle.  How did they get them?  No Big Blockbuster Deals, just incidental signings, which turned out to be pretty good.    I don’t think we need to rebuild – the core of the team is in place, but re-tool, we must!

I have taken the 40-Man Roster, plus some others who are technically not on it and divided them into three (3) groups:

1. Core players who we need to keep – in BLUE;
2. Players who we needs to keep under the right conditions – in BLACK; and
3. Players we need to try and lose, trade, release or not sign – in RED.

It’s not hard to see that our core is young and will get even better.  I have Jon Broxton on the BLUE list (even though I have serious doubts about him), because we don’t currently have better options (that too could change).  Now, I am not saying that I wouldn’t trade Broxton or some of the others, but it would have to be a trade that we would make from a point of strength.  Read the full story

Joe Torre Has Spoken:

Read the full story

Some people have said that you have to get Carpenter early or you don’t get him.  Not true – for the past three years, the league is hitting .305 against Carpenter after 61 pitches. The Dodgers need to be patient… and then NAIL Carpenter.  POUND him!  HAMMER him!  SAW him off!  SCREW him!  If that doesn’t work, then  try something else.

Question:  What do the Dodger Starters for the first three (3) Playoff Games all have in common?

Answer:  None of them (Wolf, Kershaw or Padilla) has ever started a playoff game.  Billingsley is slated for Game 4, unless he is used in relief which he will be.

It should be interesting!  Very interesting! Read the full story

It was a story that the Dodgers scored some runs, let alone 5 (count ‘em 5) runs in one inning.  It was a story that gimpy Casey Blake made plays at 3B no one else would have made, and got key hits and doubled in the clutch.  It was a story that Juan Pierre starts a game, and as has become the custom, the Dodgers’ win with Pierre going 2-4.  It was a story that Jon Broxton retired the side in the 9th on 8 pitches, 5 of which were over 100 MPH, and 7 of which were strikes.  But, make no mistake, the real story was the 21-year old fireballer/magician on the mound.  In what was the most critical and pressure-packed game of his young career, 21 year-old Clayton Kershaw was “as cool as the other side of the pillow.”  His 8-8 record belies his 2.79 ERA.  He didn’t get the win, because neither team had scored when he exited the game, but make no mistake about it – last night’s win belonged to Clayton Kershaw.  He ends the regular season with 171 IP,  119 Hits, 185 K’s and enters the 2010 season as the odds-on-favorite to be the Opening Day starter.  Can you imagine how good this guy will be when he figures it all out?  He’s already got a good idea! Read the full story

… but the fact is, I don’t.  I just don’t!  Yeah, I know all the stats, but the one that bothers me the most is 6.  6 Blown Saves.  That’s not what an elite closer does.  I hold my breath

Impersonating A Closer?

 everytime he enters the game.  I just don’t think he handles pressure well.  Just my opinion, but his 6 blown saves helps support what I say.  The last time I blasted Broxton, I was told we couldn’t count the blown saves he got as a setup man.  Well, I am counting these and 6 blown saves for someone who is purported to be the best closer in the NL is not good.    Maybe I was spoiled by “Game Over” Gagne, but Broxton’s blown saves concern me and I will continue to be nervous when he’s in the game.  Jeff Shaw used to get roasted by many of you for his blown saves, and I can’t believe he had too many more than Broxton.  Maybe someone can look that up (I’m too busy). 

I wish I could be positive about Broxton, but I’m positive I’m not!

That’s all I got.  What an ugly loss!