Of course, anything is possible, but being 11 games out of first place on August 17th is not a good position to be in.  It’s highly unlikely that the Dodgers can advance to the playoffs for the third straight year.  There are a variety of reasons for this, but the not the least of which is the disconnect between the coaches and the players.  Joe Torre and Company are not known for being brilliant strategists, and that issue was readily exposed this season.  In my opinion, none of the coaching staff should be back.  There needs to be a clean sweep.  I would give Ned Colletti one more year.  I think he has learned a lot, but I still think giving up James McDonald for Dotel was a bonehead move.  I believe that James McDonald IS BETTER RIGHT NOW than Octavio Dotel.   Giving up Santana was a little more understandable (and the jury is out on that one – I’m not saying it was smart), but McDonald was boneheaded!  I liked Blake DeWitt, but that wasn’t a big deal.  The Dodgers do have to decide what to do with Theriot and Lilly however.

Now, since the Dodgers are effectively out of the race, what happens over the next two weeks will help define their future.  Contrary to the naysayers, who said McCourt wouldn’t spend big on the draft, the Dodgers did just that and broke the bank to sign Zach Lee.  As Jared mentioned, those of you who doubted Logan White’s veracity should be ashamed!   If the Dodgers had offered arbitration to Wolf or Hudson, and one (or both) had accepted, there would have been no Zach Lee signing, and to those who said that they would not have accepted arbitration, I say:  ”You also said McCourt would not pay money for draftees – you have no credibility!”

Now, I freely admit that Frank McCourt has some problems and I think he really has taken too much money from the Dodgers and that his lifestyle is too decadent, but I don’t have all the inside info.  That’s not something anyone has.  I also see all the things he has accomplished and I believe Dodger Fans have an owner who is in it for the long haul.  ”The Divorce” looms large and will go a long in determining the Dodgers future.  It will be interesting as to what happens, but I believe Frank is in the “drivers’ seat.”  That is speculation on my part and I won’t spend much time saying much more because speculation is not worth ZIP!  We just have to wait and see what happens.

• Casey Blake has cleared waivers and it would be nice if someone took him, but I doubt it.  He has slipped badly this year and really can’t be counted on to be a starter next year.  He’ll be an expensive sub!  The Dodgers need a new 3B.
• As bad as Dodger Fans felt Russ Martin was playing, he looks like a Superstar compared to Ellis and Ausmus.  Dodger fans do need to realize that Martin may not be back next year.   Add a catcher to the shopping list.  AJ Ellis probably isn’t even a backup.  Add a catcher to the Dodgers’ shopping list.
• We all know that Manny will be gone after the season.  Let’s hope that he comes back strong and clears waivers, so that some AL team can absorb a little salary to give the Dodgers some relief next year.  Add a left fielder to the shopping list.
• My biggest hope is that Raffy come back and burns up the league and can be traded before August 31st.  I was against his signing because of his injury history and “all out style of play.”  The Dodgers can’t count on him to help much next year.  They should cut bait, if they can!  Add a Starting Shortstop to the equation, although I doubt he can be traded without eating half of his salary.
• As much as the relief pitching has sucked this year, the nature of relievers is that they frequently have off years and then bounce back with stellar seasons.  I believe that the Dodgers are OK in this area, regardless of what the stats say.
• Kuroda, Padilla and Lilly are all Free Agents.  No way the Dodgers offer Kuroda arbitration – maybe Padilla, and if Lilly wants to stay, they might opt to sign him top a 3-year deal.
• Kershaw has shown that he can be the Dodgers ace and Chad Billingsley has been excellent since the end of April with an ERA near 3.00.  I think Lilly fits nicely in the Dodgers rotation – it’s just a question of whether he is affordable.
• As crazy as you think it might be, Charlie Haeger may play the role of the 5th starter next year.  Think RA Dickey!
• Jon Broxton’s star has waned, but he still has good value and the Dodgers just need to trade him over the winter.  He’ll command too much for that position.  If I were the Dodgers, I would not pay it.  Kuo and Jansen can close.  If Belisario gets his head screwed on straight he’ll be an asset too, and Cheryl falls off the books (I hope).
• I have to wonder about the entire coaching staff in the minors and I think that has to be re-evaluated.  We have too many youngstersunderachieving (McDonald, Lindblom, Withrow, Martin, et al).  It’s time for a fresh look.  The Dodgers minor league system is under-preforming with regards to some very good prospects.  Nothing is sacred or off-limits.  The right people are not in place.  Heads must roll.
• I predict Matt Kemp will figure it out and be a Bison again in 2011!
• The Dodgers have a big “re-tooling job” to do in the off-season, which starts now!  C, 3B, SS and LF are wide open!

It pains me greatly to say this.  I never raise the white flag, but Ned tried and it was too little, too late.  

Podsednik, Theriot, Lilly and Dotel arrived at the fort after the troops had already been massacred.

This year is done.  It’s time to hop on the Bus Gus, we don’t need to discuss much.

It is time to look at the core of this team, and decide who has to stay and who can go.  I think it’s really very simple:  most of the core of this team are players who are under team control for the next few years, but not all are “core players.”

Immediately, the following players should be placed on waivers (of course, some like Sherrill , Blake and Anderson will not be claimed, but some will):

• Sherrill
• Anderson
• Lilly
• Podsednik
• Theriot
• Dotel
• Broxton
• Padilla
• Kuroda
• Martin
• Blake
• Furcal
• Ramirez
• Weaver
• Belliard
• Carroll

You don’t need to be coy, Roy, just listen to me. Here’s my rationale:  The Dodgers will actually keep some of those players, but a few could bring us some TOP (I mean TOP) Prospects in return.  Tampa Bay or the White Sox covet Manny, and while the Dodgers won’t get a ton for him, they should be able to recover $2 to $4 mil and a Top 10 Prospect for him.  Broxton and Furcal will both bring two Top Prospects, I mean really good players.  Raffy can help a team win it all THIS year.  The Dodgers only control him one more year and he’s getting older, so they need to see what they can get.  If they can get two Top Prospects for him, they should do it.   Just drop off the key, Lee and set yourself free!

I am a believer that you don’t pay a closer $10 mil, and Broxton will be there soon.  Never mind that I have an “irrational hatred of him” – he needs to go, and get us a couple more top prospects.  Stockpile those bad boys.    Someone may want Podsednik, Theriot, Lilly, Dotel, Padilla, Kuroda, Martin, Weaver and Carroll or Belly.  They won’t all go, but some will.  Jansen, Lindblom, Belisario, Kuo, Guerra and others wait to close.

Just slip out the back, Jack. Look, I like Raffy – but let’s get real.  He’s having a career year.  Trade him before he gets hurt!

Here’s the Dodger’s core:

• Kemp
• Ethier
• Loney
• Kershaw
• Billingsley

That’s it!  Those 5 guys are the Dodgers Core.   I used to love Russ Martin, but he’s not a “core player.”  Matt Kemp showed how good he can be when he is focused, like last night.  He got called out in the press the day before, admitted he needed to do better, and immediately did it!  He has Superstar talent.  The play where Loney got thrown out at 3B could have happened to anyone in that same situation.  I  can’t fault Kemp on that one (and I have been critical of him this year).  Kemp was scoring easily and wasn’t dogging it, but was in a mode that wasn’t top speed (and rightfully so).   If anything, we should be ragging on Loney for going to 3B.

The Dodgers should lock those 5 guys  up long term!    RIGHT NOW!    Belisario, Kuo, Jansen, Monasterios, Paul, Hu, DeJesus, Sands (?), Lindblom,  Ely, Ellis and others will be around also.

Take the prospects the Dodgers can get for Martin, Broxton, Lilly, Manny and others and add them to their stable of prospects.  Oh, and sign Zach Lee!  NOW!

That’s my plan.  Make it so, Ned.

Oh, here’s your short list for managers next year:

• Gibson (if he’s available)
• Scioscia (yeah, I know, but…)
• Ausmus
• Wallach

Pick one!

The Dodgers have placed George Sherrill on outright waivers, according to Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse, meaning he would be able to be claimed by any team in the league. If no team claims him, then he can be re-assigned by the Dodgers. This is interesting, mostly because when Mark and I were at blogger night, Colletti was asked if the Dodgers had explored the idea of sending Sherrill to the minors and answered with only a coy smile.

Jon Broxton again has demonstrated that the bigger the stage, the smaller he is.  I am tired of people making excuses for him.    I have heard that “He hasn’t pitched enough and that’s why he blew the game“ and now I hear “he has pitched too much which is why he blew the game.”  As Broxton walked out to the field you could feel the fear.  I could almost smell it!  I told the family that he was going to blow the game.  My wife says he takes forever between pitches, like he’s afraid to throw it and I said “he is!” Jon Broxton is an elite closer (allegedly) who should be able to get 3 outs without giving up 4 runs.  Yes, Loney made a bonehead play, but Broxton blew the game!

The Dodgers should have never been there if Broxton was not a choke artist!  For those of you who want to overwhelm me with stats, here is where FIGURES LIE!  Broxton blew the game, but he gets no blown save, which is BS!  TOTAL BS!  Jon Broxton blew what was the biggest game of the year for the Dodgers.  Remember this game because if the Dodgers don’t win, this game could have been a pivotal change in the Dodgers fortune, but Jon Broxton wrestled defeat from the jaws of victory.  When you mention the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and all the big name teams, Jon Broxton’s knees turn to jelly.  This loss wasn’t on Torre.  Joe wanted the win and brought what is his best pitcher in to seal the deal.  I’m no Torre fan, but this isn’t on Joe.  Quit making excuses for Broxton.  My wife calls him “a loser.”   He can pitch with the best, but I tend to agree – he’s a loser!

If you are an elite closer, and his stats say that he is, then your manager should be able to bring you in anytime.  Not a closing situation?  BS!  He is allegedly your best pitcher, and that game meant so much to the Dodgers.  I have no quarrel with Joe bringing in Broxton.  Actually, I think it was smart.  I do have a quarrell with him bringing in Cheryl. He is toast.  As I said in the off season, Ned should have traded him because we have seen the best of Cheryl.  THREE LETTERS:  DFA!

This is not a “knee jerk” reaction.I have been saying this about Broxton for years. National TV, Sunday Night, The Yankees, a 4-Run Lead = Flame-out by Broxton. Guaranteed! I said the Dodgers should trade Broxton three years ago, two years ago, a year ago and I am still saying it. Jon Broxton is soft on the big stage. I have said it over and over and I still am saying it. IF (BIG IF) the Dodgers get to the playoffs, or the World Series, Jon Broxton is a lock to blow a game or three. Even after last night’s flameout, his value is still extremely high. Include him in a trade for Cliff Lee or some other starter.

The Dodgers need to explore other possibilities, including Kuo, Belisario, Lindblom McDonald, Jansen, Capps – there are options. Jon Broxton will break your heart. Cut bait, Ned!

Feel free to disagree!

It looked for a while that the Dodgers might have squandered a 3-0 lead through 4 innings in Cincinnati last night, so after a 2-1/2 hour rain delay, the Dodgers took batting practice and

Manny Dancing With Russell

tacked on 9 more runs to spank the Reds 12-0.  That score in itself, doesn’t mean much.  What means the most to me is that Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez (especially Raffy) looked like they were difference-makers again. Raffy went 5-6 and made some outstanding plays in the field, including two back-to-back plays from as deep in the hole as you can get.  He threw out both runners, which is a feat that I am convinced few, if any, other shortstops could have made.  If you didn’t see it, it’s worth a re-play.

There was a lot of good to take from that game:

• Ramirez was 3-4 with a HR and 4 RBI and looked a lot like “Manny” while raising his BA to .298
• James Loney got 4 hits and raised his BA to .304
• Raffy is now at .309
• Matt Kemp went 2-4 to bereak out of his personal malaise (watch out, someone is going to pay, soon)
• Hiroki Kuroda went 5 innings, including 1 inning after the 2-1/2 hour rain delay to get his 6th win and drop his ERA to 3.10.
• Troncoso looked as good as I have ever seen him, hitting 94 MPH and having the bottom fall out of his fastball.
• George Sherrill (he’s not Cheryl today) even looked pretty good and topped out at 90.  I’m not saying he’s “cured,” but it’s a step in the right direction.
• Justin Miller also pitched a scoreless inning and his ERA sits at 3.18.

The Dodgers will allegedly call up a reliever tonight.  It will probably be Link – I think Lindblom needs a few more games as a reliever before being called up.  When Vicente Padilla comes off the DL on Saturday, the pitcher who gets called up tonight, or Miller, or Anderson, or maybe even Blake DeWitt could be gone.

Everyone seems to use the W.I.N. philosophy in business, in sales and motivation, but I don’t see that acronym much applied in sports.

On the way out the door?

What’s Important Now is something the Dodgers need to focus on.  Their hitting (actually the lack thereof) is the direct result of ignoring the Don Mattingly Plan which is to work the count, expose the pitcher and capitalize on high pitch counts.  Here’s what I think is important:

• Listen to Mattingly and work those counts.
• Quit being “homerun happy” – a string of hits can break a pitchers back JUST AS QUICK AS A HOME RUN.
• Find something to do with that sloth in LF – The Dodgers Cannot win with Manny Ramirez in LF – PERIOD!  I tried to tell you all that the Dodgers should not have signed him. I think he can still hit – as a DH in the AL – Ned can move him because his salary is low, but he will have to “eat” the deferred money.  The Dodgers simply have to move him.  I think the Yankees would give up a decent prospect for him – shoot, I’d take Javier Vasquez for him.    They could use a DH like Manny and I think that might be just the ticket.  I would not be opposed to using the X-MAN and Reed Johnson in RF.  I think we would be a better team.  It’s time to cut bait!

Justin Miller has been a nice addition to the pen.  He’s a guy who can pitch 2 innings in the 6th or the 7th and do a credible job, leaving Beliasrio and Kuo for later.  Sherrill and Padilla pitched well last night at IE (see Jared’s Minor League Report).  The Dodgers pitching is in great shape right now and Kuroda pitched well enough to win… and might have without that sloth in LF.

John Ely is simply amazing!  Who knew?  I wonder if his bubble will burst, but here’s the thing – he IS a PITCHER!  Dude flat out knows how to pitch.

On the DL

Matt Kemp is not a Bison.  He’s more like a Puma.  Pooommmm!    Was it me who predicted 40 HR for him (and Walkoff Ethier)?

The Dodgers have now dropped their team ERA to 4.12 (the Padres is rising).

All of the following is from Tony Jackson of ESPN/Los Angeles:

• Vincente Padilla is set to start his rebab this week and has a target date of June 18 for his major league return
• George Cheryl pitched an inning at Inland Empire last night and promptly gave up three hits.  At least he has kept his form.  Honeycutt wants him to pitch at least one game in AAA before coming back.
• And this:

McDonald suffers setback

James McDonald’s path back to the major leagues has taken another unexpected turn.

The lanky right-hander, who was 4-1 with a 5.05 ERA in nine starts for Albuquerque, suffered a serious right-hamstring pull while running the bases last Wednesday night against Reno. McDonald was caught in a moment of indecision as to whether to slide or go into second base standing as he attempted to break up a double play.

McDonald is presently on the seven-day DL and is at the Dodgers’ spring-training facility in Glendale, Ariz., where he is throwing off flat ground. But he isn’t expected to return to pitching competitively anytime soon.

“It’s a significant strain,” Dodgers trainer Stan Conte said. “It’s not a small one. We call it a Grade 2 out of a possible three. We’ll just have to see how long it takes. We don’t believe it’s a matter of days. It’s longer than that.”

McDonald is 5-5 with a 3.65 ERA in four starts and 45 relief appearances for the Dodgers over the past two seasons, and he pitched 5 1/3 shutout innings over two appearances in the postseason two years ago. He came to spring training this year as a slight favorite amid a large field of competitors to win the fifth spot in the starting rotation, but he had a poor showing in the Cactus League and was optioned on March 20.

The Knucklehead:  Getting shot in the leg is enough to cause you to get branded as a knucklehead, but there’s a lot more to it than that.  Vicente Padilla arguably has some one thebest stuff you will ever see, but it’s his “knuckle-headedness”  which has kept him from achieving his potential.  Obviously, something happened in Texas which caused many of his teammates to turn on him and the Rangers to eat his contract.  In spring training this year, he was regarded as a “knucklehead” in several establishments which service alcoholic beverages and he was regarded as a “knucklehead” by people who leased him his expensive sports car and his neighbors around the condo he leased.  Thus, it comes as no surprise that Padilla is involved in some form of “incident” in a hotel room in the 3-4 AM hours.  Once a knucklehead, always a knucklehead.  I thought that since he was a 1-year deal, he might settled down and pitch like he is capable, and his stuff is #1 stuff, but his head is #13.  A True Knucklehead he is!

Linchpins: Matt Kemp, Manny Ramirez, Russell Martin and James Loney are all important to the Dodgers offense, but the Dodgers “Offensive Linchpins” are, without a doubt, Rafael Furcal and Andre Either.   After going 3-4, Raffy looks to be back and Andre is due back at any moment.  The Dodgers are an entirely different team when they are in the lineup.  Raffy sets the tone, but if you have to pick one true “linchpin” it is “Walkoff” Ethier.  I am considering changing his name from “Walkoff” to “Game-Over.”

Leftys:  It’s always something with left-handers.  Case-in-point – George Sherrill, who seems to be very good or very, very bad and lately it has been the later.  Hong-chih Kuo has outstanding “Closer” type stuff, but his arm hangs by a thread and each pitch could be his last.  An MRI could tell a lot, but I am sure that neithe he nor the Dodgers wants to know…  And then we have Mr. Scott Elbert, whose curve-ball and slider should play out much better than in the PCL, but who is wilder than a March Hare.  What is it with these left-handers anyway?  They are all wacky, except for Mr. Clayton Kershaw – he’s OK in my book, and after all, he is our Ace.  The Dodgers last two attempts to trade for an ace were exercises in futility (Brown and Schmidt).  I think the Dodgers have to get an Ace the old-fashioned way – you grow one!

I Told You Sos: In the off-season before this season, I said that I was in favor of not offering Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf arbitration.  Most of you have disagreed with me, but you will change your minds soon enough.  Watch and learn.  You surely have learned that what I said in the off-season before the start of the 2009 season is true.  I said that I was not in favor of signing Manny Ramirez, but if I signed him it would only be for one year.  I was told by most of you that Manny would require a three to five year deal and was called all kinds of names for saying I wouldn’t sign him.  When the Dodgers signed him for two year against no other bidders, I was somewhat relieved, but felt that $45 mil for an aging superstar was too much and too long… and it was!  I root for Manny because he is a Dodger, but I fear that we are seeing the best of this aging-former-steroid-using-superstar-who-can’t-recover-as quickly-as-he-needs to.  I fear that there is little market for him and if the Dodgers can trade him, it will be at the expense of having to eat half his salary or more – they might as well keep him for that.  The only team I can see wanting or affording him is the Yankees and that would be “iffy.”  You got what you wanted with Manny and now you are stuck with him.  I hate to say I told you so, but “I told you so.”

Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke and Roy Oswalt will all be on the market this year.  Randy Wolf makes more than Cliff Lee.  Who would you rather have?  The Dodgers can now be players for those pitchers because they don’t have the salaries of Wolf or Hudson… or both.  They would really be sitting pretty if they didn’t have Ramirez!

2012:

Lineup:

1. Gordon  SS
2. DeWitt 2B
3. Ethier  -  LF
4. Pujols  - 1B
5. Kemp  CF
6. Beltre  3B
7. Sands  RF
8. Ellis  C

Subs:

• May
• Hu
• Paul
• Hoffman
• DeJesus

Rotation:

1. Kershaw
2. Lee
3. Martin
4. Ely
5. Haegar

Bullpen:

• Wade
• McDonald
• Guerra
• Link
• Adkins
• Leach
• Lindblom – Closer

Parting Shots:

• The Dodgers lack of hitting doesn’t concern me, right now – they will hit.
• Garrett Anderson is stealing space from a worthy ballplayer.  He is soooooooooooooo done – stick a fork in him!
• The Dodgers need to convert Lindblom back to a Closer
• James McDonald is back on the road to LA
• Xavier Paul will surprise you – watch and see.
• Rumor has it that Elbert will go back down today to make room for Ethier, and that Paul will go back to make make room for Haegar on Tuesday.  A better move would be to keep Paul and DFA Anderson.  Answer this question:  Are the Dodgers better with XP or GA?  End of discussion…

The Dodger blogosphere was white hot with who was going to be sent down to make room for Rafael Furcal.  Would it be Ramon Ortiz, Nick Green, or

Bruised Ego?

(God forbid) Blake DeWitt?  In the end, it was George “Cheryl” Sherrill who went on the DL with a strained ego, ‘er back.  Yeah, that’s the ticket!  Everyone had their own idea and everyone was wrong.  It just shows how far bloggers are separated from reality.

Blog on dudes!

****************************************************************

UPDATE:

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. Raffy  SS
2. Russ C
3. Matt  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Lone-Dog  1B
6. Casey  3B
7. X-Man  Rf
8. Rake  2B
9. The Kershawshank Redemption  P

• I think James McDonald and Josh Lindblom will both play a big role with the 2010 Dodgers.
• If Hiroki Kuroda can continue to hit 95 MPH on his fastball and mix up his pitches like he has, he will be an All-Star this year.
• The Kiddie Corps of Chad and Clayton are starting to hit their stride.  I’m liking the Dodgers top 3 starters.  You can buy and ace or grow an ace.  I prefer the later.
• With Padilla likely out until June, John Ely and Carlos Monasterios will each get another start or four.
• Charlie Haeger can’t even pitch in a 9-1 blowout?  That doesn’t bode well for his future.  He is in Joe’s doghouse.  Charlie Haeger and Been Sheets have similar ERA’s.  I guess I’d rather be Ned Colletti than Billy Beane on that one.
• George Sherrill needs another pitching coach.  He scares me, but he’s better than he shows.
• What’s not to like about Casey Blake? He gets big hits, makes good plays and is a good teammate.  He’s hitting .263 with 3 HR, 6 Doubles and 15 RBI, which is 3rd on the team.  He’s solid, steady and will benefit if he only has to start 125-130 games, but he can pinch hit in the rest.  Casey Blake can play on my team any time.
• Have the Dodgers fired Joe Torre yet?
• When do Sands and Russell move up?  With Lambo in Limbo, Russell should go to AA and Sands to IE.
• Somebody told me I was crazy last season when I suggested that Andre Ethier could hit 40 HR.  I may be crazy, but he CAN hit 40 HR, like THIS year! No more Mr. Softee.
• Speaking of Soft, Andy LaRoche looks “soft” to me.  It looks like I was wrong in his evaluation.
• Matt Kemp is a streaky hitter.  He’ll hit like crazy for 4 or 5 games and then look horrible the next 4 or 5 games.  Sooner or later, the bad times will be less and less.  I guess the same can be said about Ethier.
• Who likes Garrett Anderson over Xavier Paul? No me!  Paul has better speed, is better defensively, has a cannon on his shoulder compared to Anderson’s popgun and is hitting better than Anderson.  That kind of performance needs to be rewarded.  Paul has to stay on the team when Manny is activated.   Simple as that.  While Paul is not a great CF, he can play there as well, and Anderson can’t.
• Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com has a nice article about the reformed Pedro Guerrero.
• Don’t get too excited – it was only the Pirates…
• It looks like Hu will be called up on Tuesday and Raffy will go on the DL.

It seems to me that many Dodger fans are hyperventilating after seeing their beloved Dodgers start 2-4.  It doesn’t make me happy either, but lets’ not forget that it’s not how you start – it’s how you finish, and the Dodgers stumbled at the finish line last year.  They had a stretch where they went 2-7 before finally clinching from the Rockies. I am going to suggest that the .069 ERA George Sherrill had as a Dodger last year will not be duplicated, but neither will he have  22.50 ERA.  Jeff Weaver was reliable last year, but he had a few hic-ups – all pitchers do.  What can we learn from the first six games?  One thing – Don’t Jump to Conclusions! It’s a long season which is officially 1/27th over for the Dodgers.

Charlie Manual stuck with Brad Lidge last year, even with a 7.21 ERA and 11 blown saves because he believed in him.  Like Yogi used to say, “90% of the game is half mental.” Guys have mechanical issues and guys have mental issues.  The mechanical issues, as hard as they are to work out, are easier than the mental aspects of the game.  Right now, just about everything that can go wrong, is going wrong.  Matt Kemp is not playing the way he should, even though his stats look good.  Our bullpen looks to be a shambles.  Our hitting with RISP is poor.  All of this can change overnight.

Jeff Weaver is part of this team until he blows several games.  George Sherrill is a co-closer, like it or not, and Joe Torre will use him as such (at least until he proves he can’t do it).  Russ Ortiz and Ramon Ortiz are getting a chance to show that they belong (or not), before Belisario and Kuo are re-called.  The team is 2-4 not because of poor managing, but because of poor execution – both hitting and pitching.  The manager will get fired before the players, but right now, the Dodgers are not executing the way they should.  Matt Kemp should be able to get a runner home from 3B with just one out.  George Sherrill has to be able to hold a two-run lead.  Jeff Weaver should not have imploded like yesterday.   Yada, Yada, Yada! .  All of our hitters are to blame in one way or another.  Our starters have to pitch deeper into games, like Hiroki Kuroda.  Some of it is simply bad luck, but luck is often where preparation meets opportunity.

Next man up! Whoever is put out there has to deliver… and I believe they will.  The home opener seems to be what the Dodgers are focused upon.  Maybe the season starts now…

The Dodgers pitching was the best in baseball the past two years.  Has everyone forgotten how to pitch?  I doubt it.  Our offense will be very good, but what is happening is more mental than mechanical.  It’s a mindset.  A mindset I wonder whether our current batting instructors are able to impart.  I’m not saying they can’t.  I’m just saying I’m from Missouri – you have to Show Me!

Jon Weisman has a great blog on RISP or not…

Closer or Impostor?

Now that it’s all over, we can look back and say that Joe Torre should have brought Jon Broxton in and we would have won right? Broxton has never been known to blow a game right.  Broxton breezed last night, right?  Now, if he had brought in Brox and he had lost the game, you be saying the same thing.  Second-guessers are never wrong.  Managers are frequently wrong.  I don’t even have to ask – I can tell you why Joe brought in George Sherrill:  Confidence!   Joe wanted to help restore his confidence by showing that he had confidence in him “You are my guy.  This is your game” is what Joe was saying.  Now, it obviously didn’t work, and us second-guessers had it all figured out.

Was it bullpen mismanagement or was it a calculated decision gone awry? I think some of you may look at it a little differently from Joe.  I think Joe sees Broxton and Sherrill as “almost” interchangeable parts.  I think he wants to use Sherrill in closing situations, and the fact of the matter is, the Dodgers do need  George Sherill to be a general facsimile of himself last season.  Don’t forget, the dude put up a 1.70 ERA last year.  Jon Broxton allowed almost a run more a game!   Now, I am not a big Sherrill fan, and if you are like me, you may feel Broxton should have been in there.  However, in this case, I don’t!  It wasn’t poor planning – Joe wants to see what to expect from George. Right about now, those expectations are pretty low, I would say.

Joe has to see who he can and can’t trust.  Can Troncoso and Sherrill be trusted to close?  Tonight doesn’t say they can’t, but you have to consider what happened.  If it keeps up, then… NO they can’t!  Sherrill has been out of whack all spring, but thought he got straightened out this week.  Maybe.  Maybe not!  There are no excuses, he should have been able to hold a two run lead, but the ump was squeezing him.  Even the Marlins announcers thought so…. and said it as well!  Still no excuse, but it was  a factor.  He wasn’t beat like a rented mule, but he wasn’t effective.

It’s a bitter pill to swallow, but sometimes you can win a war by losing a battle!

Dodger Notes:

• Remember that during Spring Training, I said Raffy looked good and not to worry about his hitting as it would come.  It has!  Raffy is back.
• Brad Ausmus is on the DL according to Tony Jackson of ESPN/LosAngeles and evidently Russ Martin was the only catcher available for the Dodgers last night.
• Russ Martin is defying the skeptics and getting off to a good start.  Pencil him in for an excellent year.
• Padilla will pitch much better than he has… unless he is injured.  He might be…
• The Dodgers hitting with RISP is still poor, but Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are leading the way.  Kemp already has 7 RBI.  This aspect of the game HAS to improve.
• I’m anxious to see Mr. Charlie tomorrow… who will be caught by AJ Ellis.

UPDATE:

• Tony Jackson with info on last night’s game and the Dodger Bullpen woes
• From Dylan Hernandez of The LA Times:

You just have to realize that some people see the glass “half full.” some see it “half empty” and we have a few who see it as parched and barren.  They have been doing that for years – you can figure it out.  They like to throw the baby out with the bathwater.  This is especially true, because most dislike Frank McCourt and therefore they try and see everything in light of their hatred of McCourt.

“The Dodgers won 95 games”

“Yeah, but they won’t keep that up.”

“The Dodgers have been in the playoffs 4 out of the past 6 years.”

“Yeah, but they won’t do it anymore.”

“The Dodgers have some good young players.”

“Yeah but, they won’t be like the last batch.”

And when the Dodgers lose, it’s “I told you so!”

They told me so 67 times last year, but I told them so 95 times.

Some people are just happiest when they can be negative, especially about the Dodgers.

They hate Frank McCourt and desperately want the Dodgers to fail so that their predictions can be justified.

Move along, there’s no reason to argue with them.  It’s a free country and if they want to be miserable all season, then let them.

Me?  These Dodgers have a mission.  I’m going to enjoy watching.

The “Yeah-Buts” always spout off after a loss.  Move along, there’s nothing to see here.

You can’t win an argument with someone who does their evaluations from the bottom up.  No need to even try.

Rants & Raves:

• I was happy Duke won, but found myself pulling for Butler too.  It didn’t feel as good as the other Championships for Duke.  Butler!  What a team and they will be BETTER Next Year!
• I told you Joe Torre was a genius starting Vicente Padilla.  What a move!
• Timely hitting was the problem yesterday (unless you think the pitching could have been a little better) – 12 hits and only 5 runs?
• George Sherrill worries me…
• I will have an announcement later today – a new blogger is joining LAdodgerTalk and I think you will be excited to read him everyday.

Rants & Raves

The Dodgers Second Baseman for the Next 1o Years?

• A few days ago when Joe Torre named Vicente Padilla the Opening Day Starter, eyebrows were raised because the guy who is arguably the #4, maybe the #5 starter on the team was picked.  That is troubling, especially in light of the fact that some of the writers who regularly cover the team believe that Joe did it to spite Ned for not getting him an “Ace pitcher” over the winter.  Of course, no one can answer that but Joe Torre himself.  I am not accusing him of that, merely saying out-loud what some people say in private.
• After a 1.69 Spring ERA and two new pitches, Clayton Kershaw looks like an Ace.  Chad Billingsley, with a 1.84 Spring ERA looks much improved over the second half of last year.  Hiroki Kuroda  (2.51 Spring ERA) and  Charlie Haeger (2.20 Spring ERA) also all had dramatically better Spring ERA than Vicente Padilla’s 5.71 Spring ERA.  You can say all you want about saving Clayton for the home opener, but the Opening Day Starter is almost always bestowed upon your staff Ace and Clayton or Chad are clearly that.
• To name Vicente Padilla the Opening Day Starter nearly two weeks ago was clearly a mistake.  It’s a mistake which can be corrected, if it’s done now.  Vicente Padilla is the Fifth Best Starter on the Dodgers.  Naming him the Opening Day Starter is wrong and simply indefensible.  End of Story!
• To his credit, Joe did name Blake DeWitt the starting 2B, but it took way to long.  According to Tony Jackson of ESPN/LosAngeles, Joe Torre first told DeWitt that he was being sent to AAA as an April Fool’s Joke.  To DeWitt’s credit, he hung his head and showed his class by saying “I understand” before being let in on the prank.  Joe went on to say:

“Ronnie Belliard certainly has been a regular player and could be a regular player for a period of the time, but I think over the long haul Blake DeWitt is the young guy that needs to play every day. If he’s not going to play every day he shouldn’t be here.”

• Charlie Haeger clearly did not have good control of his Knuckleball last night (6 BB), but they weren’t hitting him either.  I look for good things from him.  Joe named him the number 5 starter, but Joe can’t count.  Charlie is the Dodgers #4 starter.
• When the bell rings, if Troncoso and Sherrill keep getting beat like rented mules, we have a big problem.  I am not worried… YET!
• Ramon Ortiz is a real gem in the pen for us.
• Have you ever seen Brandon Webb and Jason Schmidt together?  I think not!   Brandon Webb is either Jason Schmidt or impersonating him.  He looks like toast to me…
• To me it looks like Russ Ortiz can’t make the team.  Wheeeeewwwwww!
• Chad of Memories of Kevin Malone list his Top Dodger Prospects.   I no longer rank them in order because I don’t think it’s possible, but he’s got all the right names on there.  Nice Job Chad!  Here’s his TOP 20:

• My Final Roster:

1. Martin
2. Loney
3. DeWitt
4. Furcal
5. Blake
6. Ramirez
7. Kemp
8. Ethier
9. Ausmus
10. Belliard
11. Carroll
12. Johnson
13. Anderson
14. Hu (but they will probably keep Green-Why?  I have no clue, other than the fact he can play OF too)
15. Kershaw
16. Billingsley
17. Kuroda
18. Haeger
19. Padilla
20. Ortiz, Ramon
21. Troncoso
22. Weaver
23. Sherrill
24. Monasterios
25. Broxton

The Ball is Jumping Off Manny's Bat!

REALITY CHECK

Reality Baseball:  Blake DeWitt has won the second base job – Hands Down!

Fantasy Baseball:  Are the Dodgers stupid enough to send him down to solve “roster issues?”

Reality Baseball: Charlie Haeger is the best Option for the Fifth Starter and absolutely proved it yesterday.

Fantasy Baseball:  Does anyone really believe that Russ Ortiz can pitch effectively at any level?

Reality Baseball:  Jamey Carroll has proven that he is a solid hitter and can even fill in effectively at SS for short periods of time.

Fantasy Baseball:  Would the Dodgers actually consider keeping Nick Green, at the expense of demoting Blake DeWitt?

Reality Baseball:  James Loney is noticeably faster (I asked Logan White about that and he confirmed that Loney is leaner and has been working with a running coach).

Fantasy Baseball:  James Loney is slow and lumbering.

Reality Baseball: Whenever Raffy has been healthy, he has had a good year – AND – it’s usually in EVEN NUMBERED years!

Fantasy Baseball:  Raffy’s best years are behind him.

Reality Baseball:  Manny Ramirez will be in the Top 5 in MVP Voting in the N.L.

Fantasy Baseball: Manny has “lost it!”

Reality Baseball: Hiroki Kuroda (if healthy) is a terriffic pitcher

Fantasy Baseball:  Kuroda is a bum.

Reality Baseball: George Sherrill will be “serviceable” in our bullpen.

Fantasy Baseball:  Sherrill will pitch as effectively as last year.

The Dodgers lost to the Kansas City Royals today 8-4.  I truly believe that many of the players are focused upon Opening Day and are just bored with what is going on.  The coaches are just going through the motions, the writers are just going through the motions, so why not the players as well? 

One player who is not going through the motions is Blake DeWitt, who wants to make sure that Joe Torre writes his name in the Opening Day Lineup.  He may get a definitive answer as soon as NOW!  Come on, Joe – Give him the spot.

Dodgers Notes:

• Russ Martin was 2-6 while catching 6 innings in a minor league game.  He’ll be given an off day tomorrow.
• I just spotted Frank McCourt walking towards the Clubhouse.  He may have been here all game for all I know – this is just the first I have seen him.
• Manny is playing with purpose and looked exceptionally healthy.  He told someone that he’s going the have his best year ever in 2010.  That would be awesome if he did…
• Hong-Chik Kuo is probably headed to the DL and will make his debut in 2010 somewhat later than Opening Day.
• I would say that the #5 Spot is between Haeger and Russ Ortiz.  It would seem likely that Haeger would be the one to go to the bullpen in that case.
• Justin Miller is making a case to be on the roster with a 3.52 ERA
• Carlos Monasterios is a lock to make the staff (not as a starter) with his 2.19 ERA
• Jeff Weaver is on the team.  He’s ready.
• Forget Sherrill’s ad Troncoso’s ERA’s for Spring Training – when the beell rings, they are in.
• This team has a confidence level that is quiet, yet solid. 
• Logan White predicts that Russell Martin will be back to his old offensive self.  That sounds bad.  I don’t mean that you are offensive, Russell.

Just a laundry list of a few things I expect to see this year:

• A healthy Rafael Furcal who is 100% physically and (most importantly) mentally (it takes a while to recover mentally from a surgery) regains his form and is again one of the elite short stops in baseball.  This alone makes a huge difference for the team.
• Blake DeWitt wins the 2B job and hits 18 HR’s silencing his critics, while playing a good 2B.  (Make No Mistake – the Dodgers want DeWitt to be the 2B).
• Reed Johnson and Jamey Carroll (who have been much maligned) become two important components of the team (THESE GUYS ARE BALLPLAYERS) and contribute mightily.
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw become Co-Aces.  Bills is in the best shape I’ve seen him.
• James Loney will hit for more power, as will Russ Martin – I can’t tell you what they will do, but I expect better results.
• George Sherrill will not do well this year – I would love to see the Dodgers trade him.  I can see an ERA of over 4.00.   Pull the trigger, Ned!  Just do it!
• There WILL BE a significant trade this Spring involving the Dodgers.
• Brian Giles will retire by next weekend.
• Ronnie Belliard will be insignificant and ultimately be released.
• Who will step up – Hu?
• Opening Day Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Kemp  CF
3. Ethier  RF
4. Ramirez  LF
5. Loney 1B
6. Blake  3B
7. DeWitt 2B
8. Martin  C
9. Kershaw  P

Televised Game Today at 12:05 PDT or 3:05 EDT

By actual count, the Dodgers have 32 pitchers in Spring Training Camp who are vying for 12 spots.  I cannot see any way that Joe Torre decides to go with 13 pitchers.  With the off days and all, I think he will break camp with 12 pitchers.  That means that 20 have to go.

There are 11 Non-Roster invitees:

Also on the 40 man roster are McDonald, Link. Zerpa, Wade, Schlichting, Leach and Elbert as players who have a shot at making the team.

The way I see it, unless Stults and/or Haeger really mess up or get traded or go on the DL, they will both make the team.  That would make 11 pitchers.

Monasterios has a shot unless the Dodgers want to lose him (I have never seen him pitch, so I have no clue).  Then there’s Wade (remember how good he was in 2008?), Weaver (great swingman), Miller (solid), Gagne (no way?  way!) and McDonald and Lindblom (the future, who could all go to AAA).

The Dodgers have plethora of arms.  Who will win the arms race?

It should prove to be interesting.

DODGERS TALK:

• According to Steve Dilbeck of THE LA TIMES, the Dodgers are steamed about Ronald Beliasrio.  Sometimes things like this end badly for a player:

“I think it’s a problem now.  The pitchers need all this time. Of course, he did play winter ball. But I can’t really tell you [his condition]  until I see him.”

• Dylan Hernandez and Bill Shaikin report that Garrett Anderson is a Dodger.  This should prove to be interesting as Mientkiewicz, Giles and Anderson compete for one spot.
• Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus writes on ESPN/LA’s Pay Blog that Clayton Kershaw’s new Slider Makes Him a Cy Young Candidate (Thanks to Jon Weisman)
•  Tony Jacksonreports that Ned Colletti is not happy with Belisario either.  I am beginning to think the guy is a knucklehead!  Tony also reported this:

 The situation ultimately could cost Belisario a considerable amount of money, as well. He has only one year of big-league service time, meaning he will have a split contract with a major-league salary of no more than about $415,000 this season, and he won’t even get that much if he is in the minors.There also is a provision, known as Regulation 6, in the current Basic Agreement between owners and the players’ union that would allow the Dodgers to suspend Belisario without pay and require him to stay behind in extended spring training when the team breaks camp if he doesn’t report at least 33 days before the start of the season.The Dodgers’ season opener is April 5 at Pittsburgh, meaning Belisario already has missed that deadline and the Dodgers already have that option.”In the event of the failure of the Player to report for practice or to participate in the exhibition games, as required or provided for,” the regulation reads, “he shall be required to get into playing condition to the satisfaction of the Club’s team manager, and at the Player’s own expense, before his salary shall commence.”The phrase “to the satisfaction of the Club’s team manager” means the length of such a suspension would be entirely at the Dodgers’ discretion.

Our 2010 Starting Rotation

Well, if you ask me… and you didn’t (but I’m going to tell you anyway), it’s Young Clayton.  Maybe it’s a rush job, but maybe it’s not.  Maybe he’s ready.  Not “maybe” – he ISready!   I think it’s likely that Clayton Kershaw will be even better this year.  His ERA might not reflect that, but he will pitch deeper into games and flirt with 20 wins this year.  After Clayton, will come Chad Billingsley, followedby Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, with the 5th Spot being Eric Stults to lose.

Unless Charlie Haeger is a disaster during the spring, he will battle Jeff Weaver for the “swingman” spot in the pen.  The rest of the bullpen is less clear.  We do know that Jon Broxton, George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso, Hong chih Kuo and James McDonald will probably all make the team barring injury.  I just can’t see Weaver and Haeger both making the team, as they are competing for the same position, but if it comes down to it, they will keep Charlie and send Jeff to AAA (at least for a few weeks under the guise of building arm strength).

That leaves a lot of pitchers up for grabs, including Ronnie Belisario, whom Joe Torre may want to demote for a while after his Visa problems two years in a row.   We also have Cory Wade, who could flat-out make the team out of Spring training, and Carlos Monasterios (who could be bought or have another player sent to his former team, and demoted).  Lindblom, Zerpa, Miller, Towers and Elbert all seem slated for AAA.

While it would be a “feel good” story and great if it happened, the odds are against Eric Gagne making the team.  Would he accept an assignment to AAA?  Maybe for a few weeks, but hey, this is Spring – anything can happen.

Let’s not forget, however, that there is always a pitching surprise.  Belisario was the big one last year.  Who will it be this year?

Rants & Raves

• I keep thinking about it and I can’t see Brian Giles or Doug Mientkiewicz making the team, especially if Xavier Paul has a rousing Spring
• Ronnie Belliard has to weigh below 210 pounds tomorrow – if he doesn’t, is he off the team.  At any rate, I don’t see him as a starter.  He’s a role-player (like last year).
• Russ Martin will be the All-Star Catcher in the NL this year – Write that down!
• Oh, and in case you don’t understand – I still say Clayton Kershaw will be our Opening Day Starter.

The Dodger roster is finally coming together and now the discussions are changing from where is the rest of the team to why did they sign these slugs.  For the 2010 season the Dodger management, more than ever, must attempt to simultaneously win the NL West, delay the major league start dates of the future prospects (and their higher salaries), and have a fresh batch of players ready to graduate from the minors to the majors in case any of the players on the 25 man roster go on the DL for any significant length of time.  This is no small task to simultaneously accomplish these, and possibly other, partially contradictory objectives.

Most of us are of the opinion that the Dodger management is behaving as if without trading a player like Sherrill, the Dodgers do not have the budget, or the prospects, to go out and find replacements during the 2010 season.  Supporting this view is the Dodgers stockpiling of veterans on the 25 man bench, has beens in AAA, and prospects in AAA and AA.

In my opinion this is the correct approach for the 2010 season.  One factor is the increasing salary of the Dodger’s young stars.  Even with Manny, Kuroda, Padilla, and a few others probably not coming back for 2011 or 2012, the Dodger projected player salaries for those two future years is already more than $80 mil. With a 2011 team salary of $85 mil that is missing at least 2 starter pitchers, 1-2 position players, and several bench players, I conclude that the Dodger’s organizational Budget and Payroll is going to be a major issue for several years. 

Therefore, the Dodgers can no longer afford to sign multiple free agents.  Now they must develop the young players.  This approach may cause consternation among those of us that hope for a World Series title this decade. The current economic reality is the new reality and I for one will not be an ostrich and pretend otherwise.  (I am not a Politician) Maybe we can hope for another season with players who play most of the season in the zone like 1988.  Who will rise to the top this year?  Will the Coaches allow the players to pace themselves in 2010?  Will the pitchers learn how to trust their stuff, use the same correct pitching motion more than 50 percent of the time, and will the starters be forced to maintain a level of endurance that is necessary for them to actually make more than 90 pitches in a game?

Considering the Dodger’s unfunded future payroll obligations I am content with the following pitching plan for 2010:

Starting Pitching

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Stults

Long Relief

1. Weaver (Add to 40-man roster at the end of spring training)
   1. Heager
   2. Monasterios or Zerpa (Waive one of them at the end of spring training)

Short Relief

1. Broxton
2. Sherrill  (Candidate for a Trade)
3. Belisario
4. Kuo

Starters building innings at AAA or AA for 2011 rotation opportunity

1. McDonald
2. Lindblum
3. Troncoso
4. Elbert
5. Link

Starting Pitching alternatives in case of a starter going on the 15 day DL

1. McDonald
2. Troncoso
3. Elbert
4. Link

Starting Pitching additional alternatives in case of a starter going on the 60 day DL

1. Josh Lindblum
2. Russ Ortiz
3. Ramon Ortiz
4. Alberto Bastardo

Relievers building experience for 2011 bullpen opportunity

1. Wade
2. Schlitling
3. Leach
4. Jensen
5. Guerra

Reliever alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 15 day DL

1. Wade
2. Schlitling
3. Leach
4. Jensen
5. Guerra

Reliever additional alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 60 day DL

1. Justin Miller
2. Luis Ayala
3. Francisco Felix
4. Josh Towers