Just a laundry list of a few things I expect to see this year:

• A healthy Rafael Furcal who is 100% physically and (most importantly) mentally (it takes a while to recover mentally from a surgery) regains his form and is again one of the elite short stops in baseball.  This alone makes a huge difference for the team.
• Blake DeWitt wins the 2B job and hits 18 HR’s silencing his critics, while playing a good 2B.  (Make No Mistake – the Dodgers want DeWitt to be the 2B).
• Reed Johnson and Jamey Carroll (who have been much maligned) become two important components of the team (THESE GUYS ARE BALLPLAYERS) and contribute mightily.
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw become Co-Aces.  Bills is in the best shape I’ve seen him.
• James Loney will hit for more power, as will Russ Martin – I can’t tell you what they will do, but I expect better results.
• George Sherrill will not do well this year – I would love to see the Dodgers trade him.  I can see an ERA of over 4.00.   Pull the trigger, Ned!  Just do it!
• There WILL BE a significant trade this Spring involving the Dodgers.
• Brian Giles will retire by next weekend.
• Ronnie Belliard will be insignificant and ultimately be released.
• Who will step up – Hu?
• Opening Day Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Kemp  CF
3. Ethier  RF
4. Ramirez  LF
5. Loney 1B
6. Blake  3B
7. DeWitt 2B
8. Martin  C
9. Kershaw  P

Televised Game Today at 12:05 PDT or 3:05 EDT

… because my old buddy, Tony Jackson hit this one out of the park:  Billingsley Learning To Let Go. Whatever needs to be said about Chad has now been said by Tony, and it justneeds to play out.  In a nutshell, Tony summarizes Chad’s struggles like this:

“Billingsley’s biggest problem, the one that has plagued him at various times since he reached the majors in 2006 and the one that probably is the biggest reason he hasn’t fully morphed into the staff ace he was projected to be, is that he appears to have trouble letting go of his mistakes.

“There were times in the middle of a game — and it might not have just been when a guy drove in a run, but maybe it was a guy leading off an inning with a double, something like that — where I would think maybe I should have used a different pitch selection,” Billingsley said. “Then maybe you try to overthrow or try to do too much. That’s the mental part of it. But the only way to get better is by doing it, by being out there on the mound. You can’t simulate it in the bullpen or by throwing batting practice. You have to be out there facing hitters in a game situation.

“You can’t dwell on it. Sometimes, you throw your best pitch and a guy gets a hit and drives in a run. You can’t do anything about that now. You just have to bear down and go after the next guy.”

Read the article and you will see  that Chad is working on his problem.  Tony sums it up like this:

“Billingsley grasps these lessons easily enough. But Dodgers officials won’t have their questions answered for a few more weeks, when they get the chance to see whether he can actually put those lessons into practice in the heat of a major league game.

If he can do that, he has the potential to be a true, front-of-the-rotation ace.”

Just because C-Bil had a bad 2nd half of last season doesn’t mean he’ll pitch the same way in 2010, anymore than the fact that Rafael Furcal having a good conclusion to his season means that he’ll do well in 2010 – you have to look at both players “body of work” and their body of work suggests that they are capable of a very good 2010.  How much would that mean to the team?  Raffy and Chad returning to All-Star Status?  Think about it.  Will it happen?  Don’t know!  Are they capable – YES, they are!

Never mention Chad again until the All-Star Break!  Tony said it all!

Dodger Notes:

• Don’t put much stock into Charlie Haegar’s bad outing – I wouldn’t expect that Knuckleball to dance for a couple of weeks!
• MSTI thinks James Loney will have a big year.  So Do I!  It’s his time.
• It turns out that the most important pitcher in camp might be Sandy Koufax who is working with all the Dodger pitchers for the week.  How huge could this be?

I don’t think most of you realize how good this version of the Dodgers can be.  I am sure that the National Media, including Plaschke and Simers don’t.  I do think that Jackson and Weisman do.   We may be in for the ride of our lives.

After looking at the #5 Starter competition, I have concluded that anything is possible.  I believe that the favorites to win that position are as follows (in the order I think it most likely along with questions):

1. Eric Stults (his time?)
2. Charlie Haegar (was last year a fluke or a peek?)
3. James McDonald (he’s determined to win the spot, but can he?)
4. Jeff Weaver (can he return to being a solid-pitchers every 5 days?)
5. Scott Elbert (is his arm ready for this?)
6. Carlos Monasterios (can he jump that far?)

These six pitchers all have a shot and deserve consideration.  One will step-up.  Maybe two or three?   I can see only three of those pitchers making the team, maybe just two.  There will be some tough battles this Spring.  What do you think?

What other teams in the NL do you think will be in the playoffs?  I have already stated that I think the Rockies will not make the playoffs and I am now picking the Cardinals to be the best team in the league (behind the Dodgers, of course).  I hate to say it, but Brad Penny could win 20 under Dave Duncan (he has always had million-dollar talent to go with a 10 cent brain), and Kyle Lohse could also win 15-16 games.  If Wainright and Carpenter stay healthy, this could be an excellent rotation.  Dave Duncan is the master!

Around the WEB:

• Steve Dilbeck writes about Chad Billingsley’s Mental Toughness (or lack thereof)
• Ken Gurnick says that Cory Wade is in great shape and eager to re-gain his spot in the pen.  I found this part especially interesting:

“Wade brushed off the suggestion that middle relievers get abused and are particularly vulnerable to injuries of overuse.

“It really is an honor when a Hall of Fame manager has confidence to give the ball to a rookie,” he said. “It’s my own fault I ended up breaking down. I wasn’t as strong as I should have been. I wasn’t really prepared for the role.

“I did what I could do. As a first-year guy, you think you can handle it. I’d be happy with the role again. I’d do anything to help the club win. Last year was a big-time learning experience for me.”‘

• About a week ago, I wrote that I had heard James Loney had been working out and bulking up.  It turns out I was partially right.  Dylan Hernandez confirms that he is slimmer and stronger.  That bodes well for the Dodgers.
• It seems to me that the Dodger Kids are becoming grown men and they are determined to make their mark.  They are more mentally tough and they are prepared and planning for big years.
• Again, I don’t think that Russ Martin will continue his decline.  His character won’t allow it, and he’s not old.  Look for a big rebound.
• As much as it worries me, Rafael Furcal is a big key to 2010.  If he stays healthy and can put up good on-base numbers, the offense should be very good.  It all starts at the top.  It will be interesting who bats #2.  I vote for Kemp, due to his speed.
• If it comes down to Jeff Weaver or Charlie Haeger for the “swingman” role.  I’d keep Haegar – he’s much younger with a bigger upside.  Of course, theres’a  lot of time between now and then.  Too many scenarios to play out.
• Tony Jackson talks about Belli’s Belly and other issues at 2B.
• Jon Weisman thinks Xavier Paul could make the team if Giles and Mientkiewicz health issues keep up (and both have major issues)
• Jon Weisman opines what could happen with Ronald Belisario.
• MSTI discusses that Having a Good Team With No Ace is Better Than The Inverse- Good read
• Memories of Kevin Malone (hereafter “MKM”) profiles Chris Withrow.

It turns out that Ronnie Belisario and I have a lot in common – No I don’t have a DUI, but we both have Visa problems that prevented us from reporting yesterday.  He hasn’t been able to obtain his, and I have to work to pay mine off!  So there you go.  Joe Torre isn’t mad at me , but he is mad at Ronnie! 

Spring is that time of year when the “little boy” in us all dreams big dreams: 

• Manny will have an MVP season
• Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier will combine to hit 80 HR and drive in 240
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw will be 1,2 or 2,1 in CY Young voting
• Russell Martin and Rafael Furcal will win Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves
• Eric Gagne will regain his form to become “Game Over” Gagne
• From James McDonald, Eric Stults and Charlie Haeger will emerge a #5 starter who goes 200 innings
• BelliCarroWitt will combine to hit over .300 at 2B
• Casey Blake didn’t have his career year last year – he will have it in 2010 – with a beard, no less

Now, most of those dreams will not happen, but some will and it’s going to be fun to see which ones play out.

Spring Notes:

• The Dodgers and Torre are working on an extension of one more year.
• Russell Martin allegedly looks like a fullback and has muscled up this year.  The last two years, he worked on flexibility and that simply didn’t work.  He’s allegedly about 20+ pounds heavier.
• To those of you who expect Casey Blake to have a bad year at 37, just look back at Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt and Pete Rose at 37.  If a guy takes care of himself, there no reason he can’t be at his peak then and I think that Casey Blake, while not in the category of the three above-mentioned 3B, is a candidate to do as good, probably better than last year.
• Rumor has it that James Loney may have “bulked up” over the winter.  That would make some of those fly balls, “Big Flies.”

Must Reading:

• Tony Jackson on Eric Gagne
• Dylan Hernandez on Chad Billingsley
• TJ Simers with a “Feel Good” Article on “Game Over”

Pitchers and Catchers report on February 2o, 2010 and the first workout is February 21, 2010, so I am going to take a few days off.  I’ll be back on the 20th or 21st. 

I’ll leave you with a few things to cuss and discuss:

• Is it possible that the Combination of Reed Johnson and Brian Giles will be even better than Juan Pierre last year?  Think about that one really hard.
• Why can’t a guy who hit over .300 for the first two months of 2008 and is in his 6th professional season make the transition to everyday 2B?  Think about this:  9 trips!  That has to have an effect, but also serves to help you grow up real quick.  Is it possible we will see the 2008 April and May Blake DeWitt all year?
• Jamey Carroll can play every infield position and every outfield position (he hasn’t played SS for a couple of years, but he can in an emergency) and hits nearly .350 as a pinch hiiter.  Do you think he might have some value? 
• Could this be THE year Kuroda is injury-free (remember, it’s not his arm that has been the problem)?
• Does anyone in their right mind think that sometime  between September 2008 and August 2009, Manny Ramirez just “lost it?’   OR, is it possible you could see him be a beast in the least year of his contract?
• What are the chances in July or August that a team who (1) loses a closer to injury, or (2)  has a closer who is not getting the job done, elects to trade for Ronnie Belisario and/or George Sherrill?
• The Dodgers will have a shuttle to and from Albaquacky (I can’t spell Albuquerque) all year -especially for the pitching staff.  At any given time, we could have Troncoso,  Wade, Schlichting, Leach, Lindblom, Miller and Felix there at any given minute.  Expect to see a lot of movement to and from there.
• DARKHORSE:  Ivan DeJesus, Jr. – Could he “sieze the day at 2B?s  Brian Barton (who?) – You never know!!!
• Charles Haeger is out of options and so is Eric Stults.  If, for no other reason than that, they will be given a shot at being the #5.   Because of that, I think Scott Elbert starts the year at AAA.  James McDonald might end up back in AAA so that he can start as well, but I think he’ll play out better as a reliever.  We’ll see.
• Could it be that the Dodgers won’t have a  true SS as a backup this year?  Carroll could well be the emergency SS and Hu and Green would only be a cab ride away. 
• There’s a real chance Amezaga won’t play this year.
• I think the Dodgers will go with 11 pitchers in April.
• Belliard is not a lock to make the team!

This could be your Opening Day Lineup & Roster:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Ethier  RF
5. Manny  LF
6. Loney  1B
7. Blake  3B
8. DeWitt  2B
9. Billingsley  P

Reserves:

1. Carroll
2. Belliard or Doug M ( I can’t spell Mientkiewicz)
3. Giles
4. Johnson
5. Ausmus

Pitchers:

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Haeger
6. Stults
7. Kuo
8. Sherrill
9. Belisario
10. Troncoso
11. Broxton

I’ll be in Carmelback from March 20-27, 2010.  See you there.

Carry on!

It pains me a great deal when fans berate players - ”He’s a bum.”  “He’s worthless.”  “He can’t play.”  

What do we know?  As it turns out, not much.   I will say that anyone who plays at the major league level is so far advanced over anyone else that it’s like comparing my writing ability to Jon Weismans’.  The worst guy in the majors is so much better than any of us ever were.  Think about that for a minute.

When a hitter is in a slump or pitcher just can’t find the strike zone, we fans only look at the results, but fail to consider the underlying circumstances (if they can even be known).  For example, Eric Stults lost his mother to cancer.  In most cases, this is not an “overnight” thing, but something that can consume several years.  By all accounts, Eric was close to his mother, so when he knew she was sick (and maybe no one else knew) how did that affect his ability to pitch?  “He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

What were the dynamics surrounding Manny Ramirez when he was suspended and after his suspension?   He’s a  proud person who was humiliated.  I believe that his problems last year were more “emotional” than physical.   I don’t condone what he did (the steroids), but part of me feels sorry for him because he’s never had to deal with anything like this, and as an elite athlete, he’s ill-equipped to handle it.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

James McDonald seems to get that “deer-in-the-headlights” look when he suddenly walks batters with two outs.  He’s young, inexperienced, and who knows what is going on in his life?  Not me.  Not most reporters!  But, boy-oh-boy, he can pitch when he throws strikes!  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

What about Chad Billingsley?  He’s newly married (I won’t even go there) and he had a broken leg and he’s very young. I mean, there are so many possible distractions and issues in his life that I could write a book about it.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

Rafael Furcal had back surgery before last season and was never the same in 2009.  He was friends with Andruw Jones (who had to leave due to illness – the Dodgers were sick of him)and who knows what else was happening in his life, in addition to rehabbing his back.  It takes time to come back all the way from that – even when you think you are OK, you aren’t… mentally!  In addition, Raffy has his best years in “even years” – look it up – that bodes well for 2010.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

When I think about what goes on in my life – my kids, my wife, my business, my health, my parents and in-laws (actually, I have no parents and in-laws anymore as they have all passed, so maybe that’s easier in some ways), but you get the point – we all have a lot of “stuff” in our lives.  So do ballplayers.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

All of this gives me pause, because the power of the human spirit is incredible!   I have hope (and tangible evidence from others) that Eric Stults, Manny Ramirez, James McDonald, Rafael Furcal and Chad Billingsley could actually harness their vast talent (initially or again) and put up some great numbers.  In fact, I will go on record that there will be no “middle ground” with Manny – he will be very good… or very bad!  I am betting on the VERY GOOD part, like .310/37/124.  That would play well in the middle of our lineup!

I name these five players, because I think they are in a unique position – they are all poised for breakout (or comback) years in 2010!  If that happens, LOOK OUT!  This could be a very SPECIAL season.

With the Dodgers pitching rotation settled (1-4 and #5 from a plethora of in-house candidates), Ned has now turned his attention to 2B and the utility players.  At last glance, we had Blake DeWitt and Jamey Carroll at 2B, and I am fine with that, but I doubt that Ned is.  Felipe Lopez and Ronnie Belliard are still out there, last time I checked. 

Carroll  and Belliard are not shortstops, and while Lopez has not played SS for a couple of years, he could play the position in a pinch.  The only real SS we have other than Raffy is Hu, and we may or may not be able to keep him because of his bat.  Lopez made $3.5 mil last year and no one is busting down his door.   He might be a bargain, and might be perfect as a #2 hitter for us.  Since he played for St. Louis the last half of 2008, his OB% has been over .400.  He has good speed and can steal a base, although he hasn’t been asked to lately.  I am intrigued with the possibility of Felipe playing 2B for us.  He’s a switch-hitter and sometimes as a guy nears 30, “it’s right place, right time. ”

Our infield would be set with him at 2B and DeWitt able to spell Blake at 3B against tough right-handers.   Carroll becomes a pinch-hitter and relief at 2B  or 3B.  Hu would probably not make the team under that scenario.  We payed about $9 mil last year for a second baseman who is arguably not an upgrade over Lopez.

In the outfield we have Jason Repko and Xavier Paul and while I am fine with both of them, Ned probably isn’t.  Stay tuned!

Some people are saying that the Dodgers are a .500 team (when I say “some people” I don’t mean “informed baseball people”), which I think is just plain delusional.  I think sometimes Dodger fans fail to take into consideration that change is inevitable, and often, it is good.  Will everything be OK?  Seth Godin summed it up today by saying:

It’s natural to seek reassurance. Most of us want to believe that the choices we make will work out, that everything will be okay.

Artists and those that launch the untested, the new and the emotional (and I’d put marketers into all of these categories) wrestle with this need all the time. How can we proceed knowing that there’s a good chance that our actions will fail, that things might get worse, that everything won’t end up okay? In search of solace, we seek reassurance.

So people lie to us. So we lie to ourselves.

No, everything is not going to be okay. It never is. It isn’t okay now. Change, by definition, changes things. It makes some things better and some things worse. But everything is never okay.

Finding the bravery to shun faux reassurance is a critical step in producing important change. Once you free yourself from the need for perfect acceptance, it’s a lot easier to launch work that matters.

Will the Dodgers be OK?  We are so much in the middle of the Forest that we can’t see the trees, or is it we can’t see the Forest for the trees?  I will leaf that alone.  What I will say is that we often look at how a player performed last year and extrapolate that into the next.  What we fail to factor in is that we have a very young team and these guys often get better by leaps and bounds.  In some cases you can count on it.  I think we forget how far some of our young player have come, how much they have matured and how they will almost certainly continue down that same path. 

In the middle of the long, cold winter, I usually pick-up a copy of Lindy’s Fantasy Baseball(I never play it myself), because over the years, I have found that their takes are pretty close to the reality.  I don’t know for sure, but I think that they use a variety of statistical analysis as well as scouting resources to reach their conclusions.  At any rate, I have read them for many years and their accuracy rate is exceptional when predicting what players might do.  I thought I’d share a few of their predictions:

• Russell Martin is the 7th Highest Ranked Catcher in Baseball behind Soto, Posada, Wieters, McCann, Martinez and Mauer – no surprise there. He is rated ahead of Suzuki, Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, Yadier Molina,  Chris Iannetta and Mike Napoli.  I caught a lot of heat from some of you for ranking him that high, but you can see I’m not the only one!   (Projection:  .269/9 HR/58 RBI/470 AB)  Comments:  “He inexplicably morphed into Jason  Kendall with slightly more pop, slipping even in stolen bases, a category he once dominated.  He’ll either return to fantasy relevance or fade into oblivion this season.”
• James Loneyis the 15th Highest Rated First Baseman is Baseball ranked ahead of Chris Davis, Paul Konerko, Adam LaRoche, Jorge Cantu, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Casey Kotchman and Aubrey Huff (Projection:  .281/18 HR/30 DBL/92 RBI) Comments:  “There’s a lack of sizzle and a whole lot of Mark Grace going on here.  A more critical peek at his numbers reveals Loney is becoming more patient (70 walks last season), suggesting a brighter future.  He’s due for a spike … don’t bet on an explosion.”
• Of course, the Dodgers don’t have anyone rated at 2B, but I do hope they give Blake DeWitt the opportunity.  If he and Carroll can’t cut it, then we can make a deal.  Second-basemen are a dime a dozen and that All-Star you all wanted back (Orlando Hudson) is only the 16th rated at his position (and he wants $9 mil a year?  HA!).
• Casey Blake is ranked #17 at 3B, right ahead of Casey McGhee, Andy LaRoche, Garrett Atkins, Jhonny Peralta, Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigington and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  (Projection:  .276/18 HR/ 76 RBI).  The words they use as “consistent” and “solid.”  Certainly, he ’s no star, but we could do worse.  
• Raffy Furcal is ranked the #14 SS and Lindys calls him “No longer an elite fantasy option, as injuries have robbed him of his speed and power.”  (Projection: .283/10 HR/51 RBI/15 SB)  If he can put up those numbers with a .360 OB%, we will be fine. “Hurry up Dee Gordon!”
• Ryan Braun is rated the #1 outfielder, but #2 is none other than our Matt Kemp (Projection: .302/35 DBL/8 TRIP/31 HR/105 RBI/38 SB).  Those are “elite” numbers.  Andre Ethier is rated #16 (Projection: .293/36 DBL/30 HR/102 RBI) and Manny Ramirez is #18 (Projection: .302/26 HR/86 RBI).  They say that they still believe “Ethier will win a batting title” and that “Manny still has an elite batting eye and isn’t done being relevant in our game.”  If that prediction holds up for our outfielders, the Dodgers should be very good offensively.  In fact, that should be baseballs best offensive outfield.
• When it comes to pitching, Lindys has Clayton Kershaw at #16, just ahead of Cliff Lee!  Chris Carpenter was #15.  Other pitchers ranked behind Kershaw are:  Vazquez, Cain, Beckett, Jimenez, Webb, Peavy, Shields and Lackey who was rated #25, just ahead of Chad Billingsley at #26.  (Projections:  Kershaw- 16-6/2.88 ERA /198 IP/156 H/210 K/1.24 WHIP; Billingsley – 14-11/3.72 ERA/202 IP/180 H/188 K/1.29 WHIP).  Here’s what they say about Clayton:  “He’s a still a work in progress, last summer adding a slider to compliment his mid-90’s fastball and all-world curveball.  Check out Fangraphs.com for more on his slider and put a check next to his name on your cheatsheet.  He’s going to be unstoppable in the very near future.”  Yeah, like maybe in 2010?  Billingsley was rated ahead of the likes of Baker, Garza, Rodriguerz, Lilly, Weaver, Dempster, Nolasco, Anderson, Oswalt, Burnett, Bucholz, Jurrjens, Danks, Jackson and Harden.  They regards the 2nd half of 2009 as a “hiccup.”  Hiroki Kuroda was ranked #49, ahead of Hudson, Kazmir, Maine, Sherzer, Saunders, Pineiro, Zambrano and Randy Wolf (who was #65, and they predict 10 wins with an ERA over 4.00 for him).  They project Kuroda at 11-8 with a 3.63 ERA/182 IP and ad WHIP of 1.20.  Of Kuroda they said “his underlying numbers are solid and the injuries were not arm-related.“  Vicente Padilla weighed in at #96 (not bad for a #4), just behind Jon Garland at #95.  They project him at 12-10 with a 4.33 ERA and 169 IP with a 1.43 WHIP.
• Which brings us to Jon Broxton, ranked #5 as a closer.  Here’s the crux of what they say about him (sounds like what I say):  “Perhaps a visit with a sports psychologist is in order…”  ‘Nuff said!  George Sherrill is rated #40 and Lindys thinks he could close more on the road, especially against LH’ers (where Brox has his issues).

So, while Lindy’s is not Bill James or Fangraphs, it’s still very useful, and I have found that their projections are quite accurate.  I think a lot of Dodger fans depreciate the value of a lot of our young players, as well as our role-players.  The 2010 Version of the LA Dodgers is destined to be VERY, VERY GOOD!  Now, depending upon what happens with the divorce, we could be buyers in August.  Get ready for a great season!  I see at leat 93 wins!

DODGER NEWS:

• Jon Weisman has an excellent post on the Dodgers lack of resources at this juncture.
• The Phillies have $130 million committed to 14 players in 2011, which means they may not be abale to sign Jason Werth.  Hummmm…
• The Dodgers could sign Noah Lowery as soon as NOW!

There is much debate among baseball professionals and fans regarding the benefit of taking multiple pitches during an at bat in order to drive up the pitch count of the starting pitcher and to see more types of pitches in order to be more productive later in the game.  However, it is well know that a batter’s batting average drops drastically when they get behind in the count. 

Lets’ look at the 7 returning Dodger starters and how they batted last year.

Loney has the best batting average for a specific count three times; Rameriz, Ethier and Kemp twice; and Martin once.  Martin has the worst batting average for a specific count five times; Blake twice; and Rameriz, Kemp, Furcal and Ethier once.

 The seven starter’s combined batting average is above their OBP when hitting at counts 2 – 0; 3 – 1; and 2 – 1. Six starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 2 – 0.  Five starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 3 – 1. Three starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 2 – 1.  So why must the batters take a pitch at these counts.  Certainly when a batter’s average on certain counts is above their OBP for the season they should be hitting.  Maybe taking pitches at these counts is one of the reasons that the Dodger batting average with RISP was so poor last year.

Six batters have an average below .200 when the count is 2 – 2.  Four batters have an average below .200 when the count is 0 – 2 or 1 – 2.  These batters should be more aggressive and tryvery hard not to let the count get to these levels.  Maybe taking extra strikes, that result in these counts, is one of the reasons that the Dodger batting average with RISP was so poor last year.

 Blake has an average below .200 when the count is either 1 – 0; or 0 – 1.  He obviously needs to take many pitches in order to become accustomed to the movement and speed of pitches. Martin even has an average below .200 when the count is 3 – 2.   Obviously Martin’s batting approached is completely screwed up.  He does have a batting average above .400 only when the count is 1 – 0; 2 – 0; and 3 – 1, so for him to take strikes is really insanity.

 In conclusion, each player handles pressure differently and adjusts their swing to the count and situation differently so a blind alliance to taking a lot of pitches is sophomoric.

Los Angeles – In what has to be somewhat of a surprise, the Dodgers made two major announcements today.  The first announcement has to do with the divorce proceedings of Frank and Jamie McCourt who agreed to a continuance of their May hearing:

The McCourt’s announced that they have resolved their personal issues and that Jamie will keep all personal property, vehicles, art and personal items.  She also agreed to a $100,000,000.00 payment (payable over 5 years at 6% interest) from Frank McCourt, and assumes her role as CEO of the Dodgers Dream Foundation which will be funded by a $8 million a year grant from the Dodgers.  In return, Frank McCourt gets sole ownership of the Dodgers and has agreed to hire all their sons as club executives. 

Next, Ned Colletti took the dais and said that this is a big burden off the Dodgers and made the following announcement:  “The Dodgers have just completed a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Mariners, who have fallen 26 games below .500. whereby  Chris Withrow, Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert, Casey Blake and  James McDonald have been traded to the Blue Jays for Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Felix Hernandez.  Hernandez has agreed to to a six-year/$125 million deal and Lee has agreed to a 4 year/$90 mil deal.  Our lineup will look like this right now:

1. Figgins  3B
2. Furcal SS
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Martin  C
7. Loney  1B
8. DeWitt 2B

Our Rotation now looks like this as we ready for the stretch run:

Hernandez, Lee, Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda.

Colletti continued:  “With the expiring contracts of Ramirez and Kuroda, we we able to take on more payroll since the ownership issue was resolved and our lenders opened their pockets again.  If we had made all the dope-fiend moves suggested on LaDodgerTalk.com, we would have never had the flexibility to pull this off.  Sure, we gave up a lot, but we are going to win this thing!   I’m glad I listened to Mark Timmons….”

Some people say I am too optimistic and that I always predict career years for the Dodgers, so I thought I’d post what I said last year.  This is from a February 16, 2009 post, which was BEFORE O-Dog and Manny were signed:

1B- James Loney is quietly becoming a force at 1B.  He will win a Gold Glove soon and should be a .300 hitter with 20 HR and 100 RBI.  That puts him near the top at his position.

2B- Blake DeWitt will be the official starter, but Mark Loretta will start against tough LH pitchers.  I predict that this platoon will produce a BA of .270/20 HR and 70 RBI from the #8 hole.

SS- If Rafael Furcal stays healthy, he is one of the top impact players in the game.

3B- Casey Blake provides a very important mental toughness which will help his young teammates.  The versatility of DeWitt (2B, 3B) and Blake (3B, 1B, LF, RF) allows Joe Torre to “rest”  Russell Martin at 3B on certain days.  Blake could also see some time in LF.

LF- Andre Ethier will be a year better and I project him at .300/25/100.  He is an excellent LF as well, with a very good arm.  He’s not as soft as he once was.

CF – Juan Pierre has to play here.  He’s not the greatest CF ever, but he covers more ground than Kemp and has more experience.  He needs to play there if Manny is not signed.

RF – Matt Kemp is possibly the offensive key to our season.  If he continues to improve, and realizes more of his potential (he reported with the pitchers and catchers to Spring Training), he will not be  just be the Bison, but he’ll also be the Monster.  I expect him to hit near .300 with 25-30 HR and 110 RBI from the Cleanup Spot.  He will also have about 15-20 Outfield Assists.

C-  This will be the year that Russell Martin distances himself from most other catchers in baseball.   His hitting and defense will be elevated, but most importantly, he will become the Dodgers captain.

OK, how did I do?  Loney was short of .300  and while he did have 90 RBI, his power didn’t yet amnifest itself, but I wasn’t far off.  O-Dog played 2B so I am returning to my prediction at 2B for DeWitt and Carroll.  Raffy had a bad year – I don’t know if it was injury related but it wasn’t good.  Blake was what he was.  I “underestimated”  Ethier and “overestimated” Martin.    My prediction on Kemp was pretty accurate.

So, where’s the beef?

In the same post I said:

This team is a lot better than most of you think, even without Manny!  For the record, if Manny doesn’t sign with us, it will be with the Yankees, which would make more of their outfielders available.  I still don’t see anyone beating the Dodgers offers to Manny because baseball expects to be hurting this year.  The Dodgers have sold half of the season tickets they projected for spring training and all the teams realize that with the economy more and more people will cut back on games and cut back on what they buy at the park.  You are kidding yourself if you think someone will pay Manny more than the Dodgers – certainly not the Giants!  One final thing.  If Manny doesn’t sign, we still can sign Orlando Hudson and put him at 2B, move Dewitt to 3B and platoon Blake and Pierre in the OF.  Just a thought…

You never know how things will play out, but I wasn’t too far off!

The Dodgers have improved over 2008.   They won more games, but they still couldn’t get past the Phillies, and the Phillies will still be good next year.  I suspect that Raul Ibanez had his career year and will slip back to reality next year and the Phillies will have some holes to fill, just like the Dodgers.  Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have a former ace who needs to come back and I believe both will.  It would not surprise me to see either one win a Cy Young Award in the future, even as easly as next year.  I fully expect Hamels and Billingsley to both win 16-18 games next year.  Both pitchers have too much talent.

Manny will return as Manny, because he’s playingfor Manny,  and the Dodgers should benefit from his quest for a new contract, in what will certainly be his last year as a Dodger.  Look for Manny to hit .320+ with 35 HR and 130 RBI.  I look for more growth by Kemp and Ethier as both become perennialAll-Stars.   Russ Martin?  He’ll be back with a vengeance!  Count on it!    I do see two areas in which the Dodgers need to improve:  They need more power from 3B and 1B and they will get it from James Loney at 1B, who I believe will hit around 25 dingers.  He has shown he is capable.  3B is another issue.  Casey Blake had a better year than I expected, but he’s still a journeyman at best.   We need a big HR bat at 3B and will will get robbed if we try and trade or one.  Here’s what we do:  Sign Adrian Beltre!  Sign Adrian Beltre.   He loves LA and is a cinch to hit 30 for the Dodgers.  Yeah, I know you don’t believe me, but he will!    If you want to look at stats, then I’ll use the year he hit 48 HR as a stat!  He’s young enough that we can sign him to a 5 year deal.   That means we need to dump Blake, and we can do that in a deal for Roy Halliday. I purpose that we trade Jon Broxton, Casey Blake, James McDonald, Ethan Martin,  and Chris Withrow to Toronto for Roy Halliday (pay a lot, get a lot).  I am not a Blake hater, but we need to get younger and better at 3B! Read the full story

The Top 10 - In No Particular Order

I have no clue where this “Debacle in the Ravine will take us, but I’d say Jamie does not have the upper hand.   No, I’m not going to speculate on who we will sign and who we won’t or who we should trade.  Today, I just want to do some “farming.”  Let’s take a look at the Dodgers top prospects. Read the full story

 This team is far from needing rebuilding, but any good team needs to ”retool” every year.  Last year, the Phillies won the World Series with Pat Burrell in LF.  They evidently decided

Must Be A Padre Fan...

 that he wasn’t the answer this year, so they signed a guy even older who ended up having his career year.   The Phillies may yet be sorry that they signed Raul Ibanez, but right about now, that move is looking pretty good.    They added Shane Victorino and Jason Werth in 2005 and 2007 as key pieces to the puzzle.  How did they get them?  No Big Blockbuster Deals, just incidental signings, which turned out to be pretty good.    I don’t think we need to rebuild – the core of the team is in place, but re-tool, we must!

I have taken the 40-Man Roster, plus some others who are technically not on it and divided them into three (3) groups:

1. Core players who we need to keep – in BLUE;
2. Players who we needs to keep under the right conditions – in BLACK; and
3. Players we need to try and lose, trade, release or not sign – in RED.

It’s not hard to see that our core is young and will get even better.  I have Jon Broxton on the BLUE list (even though I have serious doubts about him), because we don’t currently have better options (that too could change).  Now, I am not saying that I wouldn’t trade Broxton or some of the others, but it would have to be a trade that we would make from a point of strength.  Read the full story

Who Wants The Ball? "I DO!"

I’m talking baseball – not football.  The Dodgers have one win down and ten more to go to win the World Series.  You have to play them one at a time, but we need ten more wins in order to call this season a complete success. 

Again, conventional wisdom was wrong – we beat Carpenter and like I said, YOU NEVER KNOW WHO WILL STEP UP.  Randy Wolf kept us in the game for 4 innings, even though he struggled with his control, and then Jeff Weaver stepped up BIG TIME!  I didn’t even think he would be on the roster (shows what I know).  Rafael Furcal played like the Raffy of 2007 and Loney, Blake and Ethier all had a pair of hits.  Matt Kemp “Bisonized” Carpenter in the first inning, and that HR BLAST set the tone, even though he didn’t get another hit.   He was tentative on a couple of plays however. 

I really didn’t understand the Billiard switch.  I’d rather have a LH hitting Hudson against the RH Carpenter than RH Belliard, and even though it didn’t cost us the game, Belliard could not make some of the plays that Hudson would have (at least 2 plays) at 2B.  All I can think is that Hudson is hurting more than anyone knows.

Is Thome a wasted roster spot?  Was Kirk Gibson?  Even though Thome has not produced stellar results as a Dodger, you can throw this years’ record out the window and look at his career.  Something tells me that Jim Thome will win a game for us before this series is over.  This is a classic case of where figures lie!  YOU CANNOT MEASURE THE VALVE OF EXPERIENCE! Read the full story

Some people have said that you have to get Carpenter early or you don’t get him.  Not true – for the past three years, the league is hitting .305 against Carpenter after 61 pitches. The Dodgers need to be patient… and then NAIL Carpenter.  POUND him!  HAMMER him!  SAW him off!  SCREW him!  If that doesn’t work, then  try something else.

Question:  What do the Dodger Starters for the first three (3) Playoff Games all have in common?

Answer:  None of them (Wolf, Kershaw or Padilla) has ever started a playoff game.  Billingsley is slated for Game 4, unless he is used in relief which he will be.

It should be interesting!  Very interesting! Read the full story

Juan Pierre - 3rd Place in Dodger MVP Race?

Now that we have clinched a playoff spot and are within two games of  clinching the NL West Championship, I think it is time to shift the emphasis from our starters, namely Russell Martin, James Loney, Orlando Hudson, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, and recognize the Stuntmen.  Actually, this year they go by the moniker “Bomb Squad.”

It’s appropriate to start with Brad Ausmus, who has appeared in 35 games and sports a .301 Batting average, which is the highest of his career for the defensive specialist.  However, the veteran presence and clubhouse camaraderie fostered by Brad (who, by the way is a REAL smart guy) is hard to quantify.  Ned got his money’s worth on Ausmus play, but his clubhouse presence is priceless.  Ditto on Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Loretta (who swooned mid-season, but seems to be heating-up again), and Juan Castro, who has hit a solid .288, filled in defensively for Raffy and has been an all-round stabilizing influence on this team. Blake DeWitt has to get a hand for bouncing up and down like a yo-yo between AAA and the big club.  He certainly didn’t have the offensive year we expected, but he played 3B, SS and 2B and never complained.  His stock hasn’t dropped in my eyes.  Blake DeWitt is a ballplayer.  Others made some contribution, such as Xavier Paul, AJ Ellis, and Jim Thome who delivered in the clutch last night.  Let’s not forget the late season heroic of Ronnie Belliard, who has hit as many HR in a few weeks for the Dodgers as he did all year for the Nats.

Last, but not least – I saved the best for last is Juan Pierre, who is some respects has been one of the most valuable Dodgers.  Behind Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre has to be somewhere around 3rd in Dodger MVP votingfor what he did while Manny was suspended and how he has played all year.  He just shows up (early), shuts up (no complaints) and steps up (in 360 AB’s he has hit .311 with a .371 OB%, stole 27 bases and scored 56 runs).   Juan Pierre is the Captain of the Bomb Squad! Read the full story

I think some of you may misunderstand why I said Chad Billingsley “has deep-seated psychological problems.”  First, you need to know that I have been a Chad Billingsley fan way back to the beginning of his career.  I am still a big proponent of Chad Billingsley and… I’ll say it:  I think he should be in the playoff rotation.  I don’t think he nuts, psycho or a moron.  I think he is someone who has hit the wall because of his thought process.  Somehow, someway, he has a deep-seated issue with success and unknowingly sabotages his own journey to success.  Yes, he had a one-hitter on Wednesday, but after walking two batters in the 6th inning, his HR was too predictable, and he chose THAT MOMENT to hang a pitch.  This has become a pattern this year.  He pitches well for 4-6 innings and BANG, he blows it up.  It’s mental.  It’s psychological and it’s beatable!   Chad Billingsley is a winner and maybe he is already working on his problem.  This is a common problem which people in various walks of life face.  Chad is just on a public stage and his struggles are well publicized.  Chad will come back with a vengeance.  I am betting on it.  The immediate question is “Can he be effective in the playoffs?”  I say YES!  I like Chad, as our #2 for a long time, but he has to conquer this psychological issue first!

When I say he has psychological problems, I’m not saying he’s nuts.  We are all nuts anyway.  I am and so are you.  YES, YOU!  Get over it already.  Do you know how hard it is to do what Chad does?  He has been too good for too long for this to define his career.  Watch and see!  Our playoff  hopes hinge on two guys whose combined age is the same as Jamie Moyers – Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw!  If they step-up in the playoffs, we will be hard to beat! Read the full story

“We know we are a good team.”- Andre Ethier

Just shut up and do it!

“The one thing I found out about them, is every time they’ve been tested they’ve done all right.” – Joe Torre

“We’re just going through a bad stretch right now.”  – Russell Martin

“We’re all right.  We’ll come back tomorrow and have a better game.” – Matt Kemp

“We have more games to play.”- Ramon Troncoso

I DON’T WANT TO HEAR THE RHETORIC!  QUIT TALKING AND START CHALKING. 

If you are a good team, step-up and show it. 

If you are a bad or mediocre team, shut-up and go home, you bunch of losers. 

The time for talking is over.  Someone needs to pitch a shutout, someone needs to hit a 3-run homer.  Read the full story

Of course they do.  I know and you know it.  How else do you explain the following:

The Lone Dog

1. Earlier in the season, I trashed Andre Ethier and call him Mr. Softee – presto, he’s an MVP Candidate.
2. In the middle of August, I said we couldn’t win with Broxton as our closer after some blown games – bingo, he’s lights out with nine consecutive saves!
3. Yesterday, I call for Raffy to hit 8th – bang, he’s 3-4 last night!
4. Last month, I said Loney would be “white hot” in September – boom, he’s hitting .438 for the month.

Yes, the Dodgers get up early every morning and read what I say about them and react accordingly.  The Dodgers should put me on their payroll for supplying the motivation for the team.    Tomorrow, I am going to say that Chad Billingsley is Don Drysdale, Clayton Kershaw is Sandy Koufax, Matt Kemp is better than Kirk Gibson and Hiroki Kuroda is Johnny Podres.  Oh, and Russell Martin is Roy Campanella.  Yes, that should about do it, except for that Manny guy.  Hummmmmmm… Read the full story