Belisario is stuck in a time warp (but says he hasn’t missed any appointments-not the first time the government has lied).  George Sherrill has nagging injuries.  James McDonald has been getting shelled, and Eric Gagne isn’t Eric Gagne anymore.  

Now, we hear that Hong chih Kuo was scratched from a start in the far East because of a sore elbow, which almost “made him cry”.  Details from  Ken Gurnick

Kuo’s elbow is holding on by a thread.  How long can we count on him?  Or not?

Eric Stults continued to impress with 3 shutout innings (0 Walks, 4 K’s).  Ditto with Carlos Monasterios!  Throw in the Ortiz’s and things are interesting.

Oh, and it’s way early – anything can happen.  And, probably will!

By actual count, the Dodgers have 32 pitchers in Spring Training Camp who are vying for 12 spots.  I cannot see any way that Joe Torre decides to go with 13 pitchers.  With the off days and all, I think he will break camp with 12 pitchers.  That means that 20 have to go.

There are 11 Non-Roster invitees:

Also on the 40 man roster are McDonald, Link. Zerpa, Wade, Schlichting, Leach and Elbert as players who have a shot at making the team.

The way I see it, unless Stults and/or Haeger really mess up or get traded or go on the DL, they will both make the team.  That would make 11 pitchers.

Monasterios has a shot unless the Dodgers want to lose him (I have never seen him pitch, so I have no clue).  Then there’s Wade (remember how good he was in 2008?), Weaver (great swingman), Miller (solid), Gagne (no way?  way!) and McDonald and Lindblom (the future, who could all go to AAA).

The Dodgers have plethora of arms.  Who will win the arms race?

It should prove to be interesting.

DODGERS TALK:

• According to Steve Dilbeck of THE LA TIMES, the Dodgers are steamed about Ronald Beliasrio.  Sometimes things like this end badly for a player:

“I think it’s a problem now.  The pitchers need all this time. Of course, he did play winter ball. But I can’t really tell you [his condition]  until I see him.”

• Dylan Hernandez and Bill Shaikin report that Garrett Anderson is a Dodger.  This should prove to be interesting as Mientkiewicz, Giles and Anderson compete for one spot.
• Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus writes on ESPN/LA’s Pay Blog that Clayton Kershaw’s new Slider Makes Him a Cy Young Candidate (Thanks to Jon Weisman)
•  Tony Jacksonreports that Ned Colletti is not happy with Belisario either.  I am beginning to think the guy is a knucklehead!  Tony also reported this:

 The situation ultimately could cost Belisario a considerable amount of money, as well. He has only one year of big-league service time, meaning he will have a split contract with a major-league salary of no more than about $415,000 this season, and he won’t even get that much if he is in the minors.There also is a provision, known as Regulation 6, in the current Basic Agreement between owners and the players’ union that would allow the Dodgers to suspend Belisario without pay and require him to stay behind in extended spring training when the team breaks camp if he doesn’t report at least 33 days before the start of the season.The Dodgers’ season opener is April 5 at Pittsburgh, meaning Belisario already has missed that deadline and the Dodgers already have that option.”In the event of the failure of the Player to report for practice or to participate in the exhibition games, as required or provided for,” the regulation reads, “he shall be required to get into playing condition to the satisfaction of the Club’s team manager, and at the Player’s own expense, before his salary shall commence.”The phrase “to the satisfaction of the Club’s team manager” means the length of such a suspension would be entirely at the Dodgers’ discretion.

Spring Training has broken out at Camelback Ranch and the news is pouring in:

• According to Ken Gurnick, Dodgers’ Bullpen Coach Ken Howell discovered a flaw in Eric Gagne’s delivery which he is attempting to correct.

The former Cy Young Award-winning closer made a quick adjustment and, according to Howell, immediately gained velocity on his fastball and drop on his changeup, although not yet with enough consistency.

• Sandy Koufax toutors young Dodger pitchers
• Eric Stults gets first shot as the 5th Starter
• Joe Torre gets Koufax and Kershaw together for some quality time
• The best part of the interview with Koufax was when TJ Simers asked “What bugs you?” to which Sandy responded “Sportswriters like you.” Classic Koufax
• By introducing Clayton Kershaw at the interview, it is obvious the Dodgers are anointing him the opening day starter, and evidently Joe Torre and the Dodger Brass believe he is ready and able to take a huge step forward this year and be our ACE!
• Dylan Hernandez on whether Andre Ethier is moody (maybe he’s just focused)
• Hong-Chih Kuo from Dylan Hernandez
• Steve Dilbeck on Eric Stults and that the job is his to lose
• Stults starts the game today against the ChiSox

Our 2010 Starting Rotation

Well, if you ask me… and you didn’t (but I’m going to tell you anyway), it’s Young Clayton.  Maybe it’s a rush job, but maybe it’s not.  Maybe he’s ready.  Not “maybe” – he ISready!   I think it’s likely that Clayton Kershaw will be even better this year.  His ERA might not reflect that, but he will pitch deeper into games and flirt with 20 wins this year.  After Clayton, will come Chad Billingsley, followedby Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, with the 5th Spot being Eric Stults to lose.

Unless Charlie Haeger is a disaster during the spring, he will battle Jeff Weaver for the “swingman” spot in the pen.  The rest of the bullpen is less clear.  We do know that Jon Broxton, George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso, Hong chih Kuo and James McDonald will probably all make the team barring injury.  I just can’t see Weaver and Haeger both making the team, as they are competing for the same position, but if it comes down to it, they will keep Charlie and send Jeff to AAA (at least for a few weeks under the guise of building arm strength).

That leaves a lot of pitchers up for grabs, including Ronnie Belisario, whom Joe Torre may want to demote for a while after his Visa problems two years in a row.   We also have Cory Wade, who could flat-out make the team out of Spring training, and Carlos Monasterios (who could be bought or have another player sent to his former team, and demoted).  Lindblom, Zerpa, Miller, Towers and Elbert all seem slated for AAA.

While it would be a “feel good” story and great if it happened, the odds are against Eric Gagne making the team.  Would he accept an assignment to AAA?  Maybe for a few weeks, but hey, this is Spring – anything can happen.

Let’s not forget, however, that there is always a pitching surprise.  Belisario was the big one last year.  Who will it be this year?

Rants & Raves

• I keep thinking about it and I can’t see Brian Giles or Doug Mientkiewicz making the team, especially if Xavier Paul has a rousing Spring
• Ronnie Belliard has to weigh below 210 pounds tomorrow – if he doesn’t, is he off the team.  At any rate, I don’t see him as a starter.  He’s a role-player (like last year).
• Russ Martin will be the All-Star Catcher in the NL this year – Write that down!
• Oh, and in case you don’t understand – I still say Clayton Kershaw will be our Opening Day Starter.

It turns out that Ronnie Belisario and I have a lot in common – No I don’t have a DUI, but we both have Visa problems that prevented us from reporting yesterday.  He hasn’t been able to obtain his, and I have to work to pay mine off!  So there you go.  Joe Torre isn’t mad at me , but he is mad at Ronnie! 

Spring is that time of year when the “little boy” in us all dreams big dreams: 

• Manny will have an MVP season
• Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier will combine to hit 80 HR and drive in 240
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw will be 1,2 or 2,1 in CY Young voting
• Russell Martin and Rafael Furcal will win Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves
• Eric Gagne will regain his form to become “Game Over” Gagne
• From James McDonald, Eric Stults and Charlie Haeger will emerge a #5 starter who goes 200 innings
• BelliCarroWitt will combine to hit over .300 at 2B
• Casey Blake didn’t have his career year last year – he will have it in 2010 – with a beard, no less

Now, most of those dreams will not happen, but some will and it’s going to be fun to see which ones play out.

Spring Notes:

• The Dodgers and Torre are working on an extension of one more year.
• Russell Martin allegedly looks like a fullback and has muscled up this year.  The last two years, he worked on flexibility and that simply didn’t work.  He’s allegedly about 20+ pounds heavier.
• To those of you who expect Casey Blake to have a bad year at 37, just look back at Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt and Pete Rose at 37.  If a guy takes care of himself, there no reason he can’t be at his peak then and I think that Casey Blake, while not in the category of the three above-mentioned 3B, is a candidate to do as good, probably better than last year.
• Rumor has it that James Loney may have “bulked up” over the winter.  That would make some of those fly balls, “Big Flies.”

Must Reading:

• Tony Jackson on Eric Gagne
• Dylan Hernandez on Chad Billingsley
• TJ Simers with a “Feel Good” Article on “Game Over”

Pitchers and Catchers report on February 2o, 2010 and the first workout is February 21, 2010, so I am going to take a few days off.  I’ll be back on the 20th or 21st. 

I’ll leave you with a few things to cuss and discuss:

• Is it possible that the Combination of Reed Johnson and Brian Giles will be even better than Juan Pierre last year?  Think about that one really hard.
• Why can’t a guy who hit over .300 for the first two months of 2008 and is in his 6th professional season make the transition to everyday 2B?  Think about this:  9 trips!  That has to have an effect, but also serves to help you grow up real quick.  Is it possible we will see the 2008 April and May Blake DeWitt all year?
• Jamey Carroll can play every infield position and every outfield position (he hasn’t played SS for a couple of years, but he can in an emergency) and hits nearly .350 as a pinch hiiter.  Do you think he might have some value? 
• Could this be THE year Kuroda is injury-free (remember, it’s not his arm that has been the problem)?
• Does anyone in their right mind think that sometime  between September 2008 and August 2009, Manny Ramirez just “lost it?’   OR, is it possible you could see him be a beast in the least year of his contract?
• What are the chances in July or August that a team who (1) loses a closer to injury, or (2)  has a closer who is not getting the job done, elects to trade for Ronnie Belisario and/or George Sherrill?
• The Dodgers will have a shuttle to and from Albaquacky (I can’t spell Albuquerque) all year -especially for the pitching staff.  At any given time, we could have Troncoso,  Wade, Schlichting, Leach, Lindblom, Miller and Felix there at any given minute.  Expect to see a lot of movement to and from there.
• DARKHORSE:  Ivan DeJesus, Jr. – Could he “sieze the day at 2B?s  Brian Barton (who?) – You never know!!!
• Charles Haeger is out of options and so is Eric Stults.  If, for no other reason than that, they will be given a shot at being the #5.   Because of that, I think Scott Elbert starts the year at AAA.  James McDonald might end up back in AAA so that he can start as well, but I think he’ll play out better as a reliever.  We’ll see.
• Could it be that the Dodgers won’t have a  true SS as a backup this year?  Carroll could well be the emergency SS and Hu and Green would only be a cab ride away. 
• There’s a real chance Amezaga won’t play this year.
• I think the Dodgers will go with 11 pitchers in April.
• Belliard is not a lock to make the team!

This could be your Opening Day Lineup & Roster:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Ethier  RF
5. Manny  LF
6. Loney  1B
7. Blake  3B
8. DeWitt  2B
9. Billingsley  P

Reserves:

1. Carroll
2. Belliard or Doug M ( I can’t spell Mientkiewicz)
3. Giles
4. Johnson
5. Ausmus

Pitchers:

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Haeger
6. Stults
7. Kuo
8. Sherrill
9. Belisario
10. Troncoso
11. Broxton

I’ll be in Carmelback from March 20-27, 2010.  See you there.

Carry on!

It pains me a great deal when fans berate players - ”He’s a bum.”  “He’s worthless.”  “He can’t play.”  

What do we know?  As it turns out, not much.   I will say that anyone who plays at the major league level is so far advanced over anyone else that it’s like comparing my writing ability to Jon Weismans’.  The worst guy in the majors is so much better than any of us ever were.  Think about that for a minute.

When a hitter is in a slump or pitcher just can’t find the strike zone, we fans only look at the results, but fail to consider the underlying circumstances (if they can even be known).  For example, Eric Stults lost his mother to cancer.  In most cases, this is not an “overnight” thing, but something that can consume several years.  By all accounts, Eric was close to his mother, so when he knew she was sick (and maybe no one else knew) how did that affect his ability to pitch?  “He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

What were the dynamics surrounding Manny Ramirez when he was suspended and after his suspension?   He’s a  proud person who was humiliated.  I believe that his problems last year were more “emotional” than physical.   I don’t condone what he did (the steroids), but part of me feels sorry for him because he’s never had to deal with anything like this, and as an elite athlete, he’s ill-equipped to handle it.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

James McDonald seems to get that “deer-in-the-headlights” look when he suddenly walks batters with two outs.  He’s young, inexperienced, and who knows what is going on in his life?  Not me.  Not most reporters!  But, boy-oh-boy, he can pitch when he throws strikes!  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

What about Chad Billingsley?  He’s newly married (I won’t even go there) and he had a broken leg and he’s very young. I mean, there are so many possible distractions and issues in his life that I could write a book about it.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

Rafael Furcal had back surgery before last season and was never the same in 2009.  He was friends with Andruw Jones (who had to leave due to illness – the Dodgers were sick of him)and who knows what else was happening in his life, in addition to rehabbing his back.  It takes time to come back all the way from that – even when you think you are OK, you aren’t… mentally!  In addition, Raffy has his best years in “even years” – look it up – that bodes well for 2010.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

When I think about what goes on in my life – my kids, my wife, my business, my health, my parents and in-laws (actually, I have no parents and in-laws anymore as they have all passed, so maybe that’s easier in some ways), but you get the point – we all have a lot of “stuff” in our lives.  So do ballplayers.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

All of this gives me pause, because the power of the human spirit is incredible!   I have hope (and tangible evidence from others) that Eric Stults, Manny Ramirez, James McDonald, Rafael Furcal and Chad Billingsley could actually harness their vast talent (initially or again) and put up some great numbers.  In fact, I will go on record that there will be no “middle ground” with Manny – he will be very good… or very bad!  I am betting on the VERY GOOD part, like .310/37/124.  That would play well in the middle of our lineup!

I name these five players, because I think they are in a unique position – they are all poised for breakout (or comback) years in 2010!  If that happens, LOOK OUT!  This could be a very SPECIAL season.

The Dodger roster is finally coming together and now the discussions are changing from where is the rest of the team to why did they sign these slugs.  For the 2010 season the Dodger management, more than ever, must attempt to simultaneously win the NL West, delay the major league start dates of the future prospects (and their higher salaries), and have a fresh batch of players ready to graduate from the minors to the majors in case any of the players on the 25 man roster go on the DL for any significant length of time.  This is no small task to simultaneously accomplish these, and possibly other, partially contradictory objectives.

Most of us are of the opinion that the Dodger management is behaving as if without trading a player like Sherrill, the Dodgers do not have the budget, or the prospects, to go out and find replacements during the 2010 season.  Supporting this view is the Dodgers stockpiling of veterans on the 25 man bench, has beens in AAA, and prospects in AAA and AA.

In my opinion this is the correct approach for the 2010 season.  One factor is the increasing salary of the Dodger’s young stars.  Even with Manny, Kuroda, Padilla, and a few others probably not coming back for 2011 or 2012, the Dodger projected player salaries for those two future years is already more than $80 mil. With a 2011 team salary of $85 mil that is missing at least 2 starter pitchers, 1-2 position players, and several bench players, I conclude that the Dodger’s organizational Budget and Payroll is going to be a major issue for several years. 

Therefore, the Dodgers can no longer afford to sign multiple free agents.  Now they must develop the young players.  This approach may cause consternation among those of us that hope for a World Series title this decade. The current economic reality is the new reality and I for one will not be an ostrich and pretend otherwise.  (I am not a Politician) Maybe we can hope for another season with players who play most of the season in the zone like 1988.  Who will rise to the top this year?  Will the Coaches allow the players to pace themselves in 2010?  Will the pitchers learn how to trust their stuff, use the same correct pitching motion more than 50 percent of the time, and will the starters be forced to maintain a level of endurance that is necessary for them to actually make more than 90 pitches in a game?

Considering the Dodger’s unfunded future payroll obligations I am content with the following pitching plan for 2010:

Starting Pitching

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Stults

Long Relief

1. Weaver (Add to 40-man roster at the end of spring training)
   1. Heager
   2. Monasterios or Zerpa (Waive one of them at the end of spring training)

Short Relief

1. Broxton
2. Sherrill  (Candidate for a Trade)
3. Belisario
4. Kuo

Starters building innings at AAA or AA for 2011 rotation opportunity

1. McDonald
2. Lindblum
3. Troncoso
4. Elbert
5. Link

Starting Pitching alternatives in case of a starter going on the 15 day DL

1. McDonald
2. Troncoso
3. Elbert
4. Link

Starting Pitching additional alternatives in case of a starter going on the 60 day DL

1. Josh Lindblum
2. Russ Ortiz
3. Ramon Ortiz
4. Alberto Bastardo

Relievers building experience for 2011 bullpen opportunity

1. Wade
2. Schlitling
3. Leach
4. Jensen
5. Guerra

Reliever alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 15 day DL

1. Wade
2. Schlitling
3. Leach
4. Jensen
5. Guerra

Reliever additional alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 60 day DL

1. Justin Miller
2. Luis Ayala
3. Francisco Felix
4. Josh Towers

After the addition of Vicente “Gunsmoke” Padilla, Ned Colletti said that it was unlikely that the Dodgers would sign another starter.   Why would they want another starter?  If they can’t get a 5th starter from this list, then they should just quit:  Charlie Haeger, Scott Elbert, Eric Stults and Carlos Monasterios.  I won’t stoop to including Russ Ortiz in that list, although I imagine he’s got a real long-shot at it.   I think it will boil down to Stults and Haeger, but you never know what can happen in the Spring.

What are the odds that Padilla has a better year than Wolf?  Pretty good, I predict!  Padilla has every reason in the world to act right, train hard, pitch good and step up.  If he wins 12-15 games with a sub 4.00 ERA, he’ll be in line for a bigger payoff next year.  It is in situtaions such as this that starters like Padilla can put up their “career year.”

It appears to me that James McDonald is going to pitch out of the pen this year.  I thought that there might be chance that Troncoso would be given a shot at starting, but with the wave of youngsters we have at A headed to AA and beyond (Withrow, Martin, Miller, Eovaldi, Gould and others), McDonald, Troncoso and even Lindblom could be slotted as relievers. 

George Sherrill is still a candidate to be moved – probably in the Summer when someone needs a closer. 

As for me, I’m rooting for Eric Stults.  Indiana Boys have to stick together.

At the age of 24 J.A. Happ of the Phillies was in AAA where he complied a 4-6 record with a 5.02 ERA.  At the age of 25, also in AAA, he improved to 8-7 with a 3.60 ERA, and also had a “cup of coffee” with the Phillies where he went 1-0 with a 3.69 ERA in 31 innings.   However at age 26, he had his “breakout year” and went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA while pitching more innings that he ever had (166).  

I point this out because 2009 was Happ’s 6th season in the Phillie system.   2010 will be Scott Elbert’s 7th season,  Eric Stults’ 9th, James McDonald’s 6th (as a pitcher), Charlie Haeger’s 9th professional season, and Carlos Monasterios’ 5th pro season.  It’s not foolish or wishful thinking to believe that one, maybe two of these guys could step up and fill a rotation spot.  I’m sure that the Dodgers would rather not COUNT on this, but the fact of the matter is that one of those pitchers could easily step up and make it happen. 

I would guess that Charlie Haeger would be the top candidate for the 5th spot, but who can deny James McDonald’s outstanding stuff?  It could be his time to” go J.A. Happ!”  This is what makes baseball so much fun – just when you think you have it figured out, YOU DON’T!  These kids just have a way of stepping up when you least expect it.

I am going to go one step further and say that I still believe there could be a three or four-way trade involving Russ Martin, Jon Broxton, George Sherrill and prospects, which would net us a Top Starter.  If his market stays suppressed, the Dodgers could then sign Molina to a two-year deal.

Around the League:

• The Giants got the LH power bat they were seeking by signing Aubrey Huff (be still my heart).  He is capable of having a very good year now and again, but he’s a journeyman…
• The Reds allegedly have signed Aroldis Chapman.  Hummmmm…

Here’s a great analysis about Jason Repko from Phil Gurnee of TrueBlueLa:

Based on what Ned Colletti is saying, Jason Repko appears to be staying around for the moment. With the Dodgers trying very hard to trade Juan Pierre and his contract for either a starting pitcher or a 2nd baseman the battle for who becomes the Dodger fourth outfielder looks to come down to Jason Repko or Xavier Paul.  It would seem a given that Paul is the better candidate to be the fourth outfielder but is he?

Xavier Paul does everything as well as Repko in the field. Repko is faster on bases. What Paul does not  do well is hit LHP.  He hits RHP as well as Repko hits LHP but my argument is that this team needs someone to caddy for Andre.  If Manny was to get hurt, then I’d bring up Paul to be the everyday LF not Repko, but for a guy off the bench Repko might be that guy.

Jason Repko does many things well that you would look for in a backup outfielder. The thing he does best however is mash LHP.  His slug% against LHP over the last three minor league season has been greater then .585 every year and twice it has topped .600.  The Dodgers have a need for guy who can hit LHP and play RF. Repko can be that guy. What he can’t do is hit RHP, so the Dodgers will need to have a guy like Minky on the bench who can handle that role.

The Dodgers starting outfield is Manny, Kemp, and Andre. Of those three only one has a serious chink in their armor. That chink is that Andre does not hit left handed pitching very well. For his career Andre has a 200 point split in his OPS between facing RHP and LHP. Last year that split widened to .926 compared to .629. Part of the problem the Dodgers had last year with Pierre on the bench was that we could not use Pierre in RF to sit Andre against some LHP. The gain in moving Kemp to RF and Pierre to CF,with the left handed Pierre facing left handed pitching just wasn’t worth it.

They both can play all the positions of the outfield, they both have plus speed, and they both have guns for arms. So that is how they are the same. How they are different is probably why I think that Repko might be the better fit for a fourth outfielder role.

Keeping Repko is a bsaeball decision, obviously not a $$$$ decision

Dylan Hernandez reports that the Dodger have decided not to sell Eric Stults to Japan.  Another baseball decision.

I think that Pierre will be gone soon and Repko and Paul will be our extra outfielders.

Coming up soon:

Logan White and De Jon Watson discuss the Dodgers Minor Leagues and players like Lambo and Gordon.  Watch for it on Friday right here on LAdodgertalk.com

I had a cheesy grin on my face as I read the Top 200 Prospect list put out by True Blue LA.  The Dodgers do not have 200 Prospects.  They have about 20 PROSPECTS and 180 SUSPECTS!  However, the Dodgers Organization is not nearly as bereft of prospects as some think.  We don’t have a bunch that are major-league ready, but DeJesus, Lindblom, Elbert, Haeger, Schlichting and Leach are all close to ready and while I don’t see any as “superstars” I believe that some of them will be very good players.  However, we are in a position where we don’t need a bunch of young players RIGHT NOW.

Behind the players mentioned above are Gordon, Lambo, Robinson, Van Slyke, Russell, Withrow, Adkins, Martin, Eovaldi, May, Mitchell, Baez, Jansen, Delmonico, Gallagher, Miller and Guerra.  Some of those guys will be complete “busts” and others who are not on the radar will step up.   Additionally, last years draft has yielded some very good prospects. 

All-in-all, we have 4 or 5 young players who could make the team this year and the second wave is another year or two away.  We don’t have the Jacksonville Five, but in 2011 you could see the Lambo Leap! Read the full story

The Dodgers have improved over 2008.   They won more games, but they still couldn’t get past the Phillies, and the Phillies will still be good next year.  I suspect that Raul Ibanez had his career year and will slip back to reality next year and the Phillies will have some holes to fill, just like the Dodgers.  Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have a former ace who needs to come back and I believe both will.  It would not surprise me to see either one win a Cy Young Award in the future, even as easly as next year.  I fully expect Hamels and Billingsley to both win 16-18 games next year.  Both pitchers have too much talent.

Manny will return as Manny, because he’s playingfor Manny,  and the Dodgers should benefit from his quest for a new contract, in what will certainly be his last year as a Dodger.  Look for Manny to hit .320+ with 35 HR and 130 RBI.  I look for more growth by Kemp and Ethier as both become perennialAll-Stars.   Russ Martin?  He’ll be back with a vengeance!  Count on it!    I do see two areas in which the Dodgers need to improve:  They need more power from 3B and 1B and they will get it from James Loney at 1B, who I believe will hit around 25 dingers.  He has shown he is capable.  3B is another issue.  Casey Blake had a better year than I expected, but he’s still a journeyman at best.   We need a big HR bat at 3B and will will get robbed if we try and trade or one.  Here’s what we do:  Sign Adrian Beltre!  Sign Adrian Beltre.   He loves LA and is a cinch to hit 30 for the Dodgers.  Yeah, I know you don’t believe me, but he will!    If you want to look at stats, then I’ll use the year he hit 48 HR as a stat!  He’s young enough that we can sign him to a 5 year deal.   That means we need to dump Blake, and we can do that in a deal for Roy Halliday. I purpose that we trade Jon Broxton, Casey Blake, James McDonald, Ethan Martin,  and Chris Withrow to Toronto for Roy Halliday (pay a lot, get a lot).  I am not a Blake hater, but we need to get younger and better at 3B! Read the full story

 This team is far from needing rebuilding, but any good team needs to ”retool” every year.  Last year, the Phillies won the World Series with Pat Burrell in LF.  They evidently decided

Must Be A Padre Fan...

 that he wasn’t the answer this year, so they signed a guy even older who ended up having his career year.   The Phillies may yet be sorry that they signed Raul Ibanez, but right about now, that move is looking pretty good.    They added Shane Victorino and Jason Werth in 2005 and 2007 as key pieces to the puzzle.  How did they get them?  No Big Blockbuster Deals, just incidental signings, which turned out to be pretty good.    I don’t think we need to rebuild – the core of the team is in place, but re-tool, we must!

I have taken the 40-Man Roster, plus some others who are technically not on it and divided them into three (3) groups:

1. Core players who we need to keep – in BLUE;
2. Players who we needs to keep under the right conditions – in BLACK; and
3. Players we need to try and lose, trade, release or not sign – in RED.

It’s not hard to see that our core is young and will get even better.  I have Jon Broxton on the BLUE list (even though I have serious doubts about him), because we don’t currently have better options (that too could change).  Now, I am not saying that I wouldn’t trade Broxton or some of the others, but it would have to be a trade that we would make from a point of strength.  Read the full story

But, they might just help us win the World Series.  I love Juan Pierre, but would you rather have him or Jim Thome as DH in the World Series?  Well, we now have a choice.  Thome says that he is not physically able to play 1B (although I suspect we will see him there from time-to-time), but he is a potent LH batter and even though he is in the twilight of his career, he has a .373 OB% and still slugs .500.    Jon Garland has “been there, done that” and is a solid starter who could benefit immensely by pitching in the Ravine.  We now have 7 starters (as soon as Kuroda comes back).  Torre has lots of options, including a 6-man rotation and giving Clayton some rest. 

The down side is that we have to give up Tony Abreu, but this is war and there are casualities.  I hate to see him go…

Dave Duncan, Anyone?

The NY Times Dave Waldstein broke an article on August 30th that Dave Duncan might leave the Cardinals next year.  The Dodgers should jump into that fray, assuming that only 29 other teams would be interested.   Here’s a couple of excerpts from the article:

Duncan has expressed displeasure over the way his son Chris, a Cardinals outfielder who was traded to Boston earlier this summer, had been treated in the news media, and he ceased speaking to the St. Louis-area newspapers. He did take time to speak to an out-of-town reporter and pondered for a moment the notion that the highly successful partnership he and La Russa forged during the 1980s might soon be disbanded.

“It would be different,” he said. “Who knows what the future will bring?”

I am sure that there are lots of hidden dynamics here, not the least of which is the relationship between Duncan and LaRussa: over 25 years!  But hey, when we trade Russ Martin to the Red Sox, all we have to do is insist that Theo throw in Chris Duncan and then pay Plaschke and Simers to never write anything bad about the kid.  That could put the Dodgers at the head of the class.

Smart Stuff From Around the Web Read the full story

I was impressed by Vicente Padilla yesterday – he has a “live arm – ” that’s a given.   He has multiple pitches and excellent stuff, topping out at 96

Padilla Pounding Nick Swisher

 MPH.  Listen-Up!  These guys don’t grow on trees, and he must have really ticked-off the Rangers.  He entered the season as the number 2 starter behind Kevin Millwood, but didn’t finish the deal.  He has a bad reputation for being combative and a quitter.  That’s not good!  Can he be re-habilitated?  Who knows?  People usually aren’t as bad as they seem, and frequently, they are not as good as they seem.   He’s our first Nicaraguan-born player.  I remember another one, Dennis Martinez,  who had his best years from age 32 to 40, when he has double-digits in wins for 9 straight seasons.  Maybe Padilla has that in him too. 

Let’s look at what we now have as starting material:

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Chad Billingsley
3. Hiroki Huroda (He’ll probably be activated September 1st)
4. Randy Wolf (will be re-sign next year or will he be overwhelmed with another Read the full story

After his last start I had relegated him to the scrap heap and if anyone says that they thought Jason Schmidt would pitch 6 innings of 1 hit baseball last night, they are either lying or delusional!  But, he did it  and I couldn’t be happier – maybe that’s a tear in my eye.  If anyone deserves it, it Jason who has worked so hard to get back.  Maybe he can build on this and be even better…  He didn’t have great control (never has), but he was effectively wild (always was) and make the big pitch when he needed it.  Schmidt is a “fly-ball pitcher” (2 ground Read the full story

With the addition of Cliff Lee, the Phillies became the odds-on favorites to win the NL.  The Cardinals have improved their hitting with the additions of DeRosa and Holliday.  This simply means that there is one less buyer for Doc Halladay, now that the Phils have Cliff Lee.  “When you have a chance to win today, you take it and worry about tomorrow later” according to no less an expert than Earl Weaver.   It is now incumbent upon Ned Colletti to acquire Roy Halladay.  Cliff Lee (last years’ AL Cy Young Award Winner) was acquired without any Read the full story

The Dodgers had 11 hits but, 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position coupled with 4 twin-killings doomed the dodgers.  We hit, but not when we needed to.  Wasted opportunities was the games’ byline, and finally it was sad to see the wasted opportunity that was James McDonald.   After James McDonald was re-called from AAA on June 20th, Joe Torre refused to use him but on occasion.  He pitched 3 innings in June and so far has 8 innings in July.   When James came up last September he was full of confidence and showed how effective he can Read the full story

With 88 games completed the Dodgers have 56 wins, which is the best in baseball.  The last Dodger team to do this well was the 1977 Dodgers who had 57 wins at the same juncture, and went on to win 98 games.  If  we just play .500 ball the rest of the way, we will 93 games, and I cannot see us not playing any worse than that.   Unless we lose 4 or 5 regulars and a couple of starting pitchers, that is simply not going to happen.  It seems more likely that we should win at least 40-43 games.  This team is better and more experienced than last year Read the full story