Carp can taste like crap, but in this case, it probably a good deal for Eric Stults, who is allegedly going to the Hiroshima “Carp” (not “Crap”).  He most

Holy Crap, I'm a Carp!

likely will nearly triple his salary, and get paid for being a solid, if not spectacular starter.  For whatever reason, Joe Torre never trusted him or gave him a real chance.  Maybe Joe was right, but in the end, this will hopefully be good for Eric.   Goodbye Eric!  We hardly knew ‘ya, although it seems like you have been around forever.

Today’s Lineup:

1. Xavier Paul, RF
2. Jamey Carroll, 3B
3. James Loney, 1B
4. Reed Johnson, LF
5. Ronnie Belliard, 2B
6. Nick Green, CF
7. A.J. Ellis, C
8. Chin-Lung Hu, SS
9. Josh Lindblom, P

With Nick Green in CF, you are seeing part of the reason he’ll probably make the club.

Logan Reacting When I Told Him De Jon Wants Him to Draft Better Players

Today should go a long way in determining who will be the Fifth Starter for the Dodgers. Charlie Haeger starts the game against the Mariner,s and will allegedly be followed  by Russ Ortiz.  Dylan Hernandez of  The LA Times predicts that Ramon Ortiz will be the fifth starter, Tony Jackson of  ESPN/LosAngeles has anointed Russ Ortiz, and I am proclaiming that it will be Charlie Haeger.  I think Dylan is out of the running, because Ramon appears headed to the bullpen, based upon the way Joe is utilizing him.  I think it’s down to Russ Ortiz and Charlie Haeger, with whoever has the best outing making it.

A bigger question is who comes off the roster to make room for Carlos Monasterios (who will make the team), Russ Ortiz, Ramon Ortiz and probably Jeff Weaver?  Justin Miller has also pitched well- enough to make the squad, but that might require too much roster surgery, and Justin Miller’s opt-out clause is for May 1st.   So, who comes off the roster?  It would seem that Hu, Repko and Stults are obvious choices.  I would hope that the Dodgers don’t send Blake DeWitt down because he still has options, so that they won’t lose a player.  He has won the second base job, fair and square – Give it to him!

Other Dodger News:

• Hong-Chih Kuo is headed to the DL again – some day he’ll head there and never return.  Let’s hope that this isn’t the day!
• In talking to people who watched Russell Martin play, it was the consensus that he looked absolutely fine.  No lingering effects of the injury.  He’s be given today off as a precaution, however.
• One prediction:  Manny will hit .300 with 30 HR and 100 RBI – Write it down!  I said it.  I meant it, and I’m here to represent it!

A Few Tidbits From the Logan White Interview:

Q.  Of all the players who have been moved or traded over the past five years, which one would you most like to have back?

A.  ”That’s a tough one, but based upon where he is playing, it would have to be Edwin Jackson.  Carlos Santana would be in that equation too, although we aren’t sure if he can be a major league catcher, and Josh Bell because of his great power.”

Q.  Can Ethan Martin play 3B in the major leagues and can Pedro Baez pitch in the majors?

A.  ”Yes! …. and if Pedro doesn’t continue to progress, we won’t hesitate to put him on the mound.”

More on the Interview with Logan later…

Today is an off day, but if everything goes right, I will have photos and the inside story of the Camelback Ranch Minor League Complex.  It should be pretty cool and I think you will be

According to Tommy, the Only Angels are in Heaven and They are all Ex-Dodgers

amazed at the facility.

A LOT WHEN ON YESTERDAY – Charlie Haeger pitched 5 or 7 strong innings against minor league competition (they were all over-matched) and Carlos Monasterios got mixed reviews (although his stuff was pretty good).  Jason Repko didn’t do Carlos any favors by dropping what would have been a Sportscenter Top Catch (there’s a reason why he’s a career minor leaguer).  Clayton Kershaw looked good in 5 strong innings (79 pitches after 27 pitches in the first inning), and so did Russ Ortiz (arrrrggggggahhhhh!)

There are a few things to settle, not the least of which is the starting 2B job.   It appear to be Blake DeWitt’s job to lose.  While not as accomplished as Jamey Carroll on defense, his LH bats fits well in the Dodgers lineup.  I would expect that Blake will win the job even though Carroll is hitting a cool .400.

Who will the subs be?  Here’s what I see

1. Carroll – 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF
2. Belliard – 3B, 2B, 1B
3. Anderson – LF, RF
4. Johnson – LF, CF, RF
5. Ausmus – C
   

   Charlie Throwing His Dancer

6. Mientkiewicz - 1B (maybe 3B, LF & RF – depending upon his shoulder)

Mientkiewicz could be the odd man out if the Dodgers want to keep Hu as a true backup SS, or Belliard could be the odd man out (doubtful) if his belly doesn’t get smaller (he’s not at 209, but no one knows how close he is).   I think Carroll will a real key component for us this year.  He can backup Raffy for a game or two at a time, so I see Hu going to AAA again along with Xavier Paul.  Garrett Anderson looks strong, smooth and healthy.

The biggest questions surround the #5 starter.  It’s any body’s guess.  Here are that stats (which is not how the decision will be made).  You have to factor in minor league games, stats and options.  If I had to guess, right now I’d say that Charlie Haeger will be the #5.  That’s my opinion.  What’s yours?

Manny Getting Tuned Up

What’s your take on the 25 man roster?

"$25,000 for Jamie Hoffman? I'll Take Him!"

For the second game in a row, the Dodgers “mailed it in.”  Playing without passion, they managed only 1 run on 9 hits throughout seven innings.  The tone was set when Xavier Paul doubled

Russ Martin After Batting Practice

to lead off the game, was sacrificed to third by DeWitt and then stranded at 3B by Ethier and Loney.  It was a classic case of untimely hitting.  The Dodgers scored four more in the eighth inning when some fringe players and minor leaguers strung some hits together.

Managerial extension talks with the Dodegrs, have been shelved by Joe Torre.  While it has always been common knowledge, Don Mattingly actually stated that it was himself, not Joe Torre, who has been managing this Spring.  He revealed that Joe is allowing him to make all the decisions.  When Ken Gurnick then asked him to name the #5 starter and starting 2B, he said “I didn’t think TJ Simers was here today.”

Russ Martin had 15 simulated game at-bats and then took live batting practice yesterday.  He looked stringer, but not that much bigger.  He was walking easily, but did not run.  He said that he felt no pain and it was completely normal.  There is an outside chance he will be ready for Opening Day, but it’s a very long, long shot.  I don’t think the Dodgers want to risk it.  If I were him, I’d take it slow.

Highlights and Lowlights:

• Blake DeWitt hit a HR… and committed his 3rd error.
• Eric Stults was pitching a no-hitter through three inning, then allowed a base runner and imploded.  What happened to Eric was obviously mental and it doesn’t infuse confidence into the Dodger brass.  His ERA is now 5.06 and I would say that he is no longer the front-runner for the #5 spot.  He’s not out of the running, but what happened yesterday did hurt his chances.  Carlos Monasterios starts the home game today, and we all will be watching what he does as a starter.  This should be very interesting…   Mattingly went on to say: “It just seemed like once he got guys on base, the tempo slowed down.”  All of a sudden, after getting ahead in the count for three innings, he was behind in the count, behind in the count, behind in the count, and that will get you in trouble most of the time.”
• Garrett Anderson was 3-3 and looked like a freakin’ gazelle on the bases.
• Charlie Hough and Charlie Haeger have been locked at the hip.  He will pitch a minor league game today.  So far, he has not impressed, but also has not looked bad.
• Aaron Miller clearly is not ready for prime time.  After his shelling today he has a 67.50 ERA.
• Eric Gagne’s Game is Over with the Dodger – he was released.
  

  Bill Russell and Daughter (OK, wife)

• On Xavier Paul’s 2 hits, Mattingley stated “His time has come.  We like X.  We know he can hit.  He knows what he is doing.  He has a quick bat and a short swing.” He still probably won’t make the team this year, but I like his chances next year.  On a down note, he played what should have been an out in CF into a triple and an error which allowed the batter to score, with Aaron Miller on the mound.  He certainly doesn’t impress me in CF.  I’d say he’s an Emergency CF – like when everyone else has a broken leg.

Other Info:

• Ben Sheets – 17.28 ERA, 20 Hits, and 19 Runs in 8.1 IP – $10 mil doesn’t buy what it used to.  Billy Beane is a genius!
• No, it the Bill Russell on this blog, not THAT Bill Russell!
• Dodgers minor league hitting coach Lenny Harris underwent an emergency quadruple bypass operation after being rushed to a Phoenix-area hospital on Friday with chest pains.  Harris didn’t suffer a heart attack, but he was found to have life-threatening blockages in four arteries.  Godspeed Lenny!
• Alfredo Amezago, who is still re-habbing was re-assigned, just like I thought when he was signed.
• Clayton Kershaw pitches the away game today.  Could an announcement as to opening day starter be forthcoming?

Pitchers Working in "The Strings" Area

Chattanooga Hitting Coach John Valentin Hitting

Just a couple of weeks ago, I had this all figured out.  Stults was our #5 and Belisario, Kuo, Elbert, Elbert, Gagne, McDonald, Zerpa and Wade were all in thebullpen picture.

Fast Forward two weeks and Eric Stults is still a leading candidate (and has pitched very well in the starting role), but most of the above names are no longer candidates to be on the opening day roster.   It’s possible Kuo and Belisario could make the team, but time is running out because Kuo could be on the DL and Belisario could be on the “Felony Stupid List” for not showing up  on time.  James McDonald is “on-the-bubble” and could easily be sent to AAA as well.  Josh Lindblom has an outside chance, but I think the Dodgers would like to send him to AAA to see if he can cut it as a starter all season.  It’s a “given” that he will be an outstanding reliever, but some in the organization think he has the stuff to be a soild #3 Starter.

Armando Zerpa was sent back to Boston.  Eric Gagne was sent to Minor League Camp and Cory Wade is sporting a sore wing, but Ramon Ortiz has been the surprise of the spring.  He used to be a guy who tried to blow every pitch past the hitters at 95 MPH, but has now learned some new tricks.  In fact he has pitched 9 innings this Spring and allowed 5 hits while striking out 11 and only walking 2.  It has been reported that he developed a nasty new pitch in Japan in 2008.

Russ Ortiz is also pitching well with 5 scoreless innings so far (that’s a small sampling – let’s see what he does in his next start), and these two guys are screwing up my projections. I still don’t think it’s likely that Russ makes the team, but Ramon has the stuff to be the Dodgers #5. Eric Stults has his hands full.  A few weeks ago, I said there would be a big surprise.  So far, it has been Ramon Ortiz.  Jon Weisman makes good points about the “Ortiz Tease”, as he calls it.

NEXT YEAR FOR XAVIER PAUL

X. Paul has no chance to make the team this year, unless someone gets injured.  As of right now, Doug Mientkiewicz AND Garrett Anderson could BOTH make the team – You can’t have too many bats.  Xavier won’t like it, but he could benefit from a full season at AAA and the become the Dodgers LF in 2011.  Most people think he’s a 4th OF, but he could be a very serviceable LF in the future.  Good Speed, Decent Power, Excellent Glove, Cannon Arm.  Watch him!

WHO BATS #2?

I really am not invested emotionally as to who hits #2.  There is no RIGHT answer.  You typically only bat 2nd one time a game, but if Matt Kemp is the second batter, I think the Dodgers will score more runs in the first inning.  Also, while he is a good baserunner, Blake DeWitt has average speed (at best) – I like him lower in the order because of the speed issue.  Russ Martin is faster than DeWitt!  It’s an argument for which I can play both sides, but these’s just one thing to consider:  If you are an opposing manager, and knew you were going to have to face 4 batters in the first inning, which 4 would you rather face:

1. Furcal
2. Kemp
3. Ethier
4. Ramirez

OR

1. Furcal
2. DeWitt
3. Kemp
4. Ethier

It’s an EASY answer, no explanation necessary!

GET WITH..ROW IT!

By all accounts Chris Withrow looked outstanding in his 1 inning of work.  He struck out the side and displayed a 92-95 MPH fastball with a lot of late movement.  He’ll see time in the Majors as soon as next season!  Like Clayton Kershaw, he’s not going to need a lot of time in the minors.

CUTS THAT COUNT:

Travis Schlichting,  Brent Leach and Ivan De Jesus Jr. were all sent to minor league camp.  Both pitchers could be part of the “AAA Shuttle” this year.  DeJesus will be a nice utilityman, as early as next season.  He does not possess enough speed to hit high in the order, not enough power to hit above #7 and not enough range to be an everyday SS.  He has a good bat, but his lack of other skills makes him a sub, in my opinion.

RUMBLINGS

• Scouts are more than amazed at Dee Gordon’s speed.  He can nearly beat out a routine groundball to 2B!   The fielder has to execute perfectly every time or he’s on.  He may skip High A ball and go to AA.  It will depend upon his maturity level.
• Scott Van Slyke looks like a player, but then again, so does Preston Mattingly.  2010 is a make or break season for both.
• “Boy, do those Dodgers have arms!”  A comment frequently heard among opposing scouts and officials.
• Jamie McCourt wants to be President of the United States (no thanks) – Bill Shaikin of The LA Times
• Must Read:  Steve Dilbeck of The LA Times on Casey Blake (the one you don’t see)
• Tony Jackson’s Mailbag

GAME NOT OVER?

According to Ken Gurnick, Eric Gagne texted this upon his demotion to the Minors:

“I’m on my way back,” he wrote. “I knew it wasn’t gonna be easy. But I’m gonna go down there and work my butt off and be ready if they need help!! Long season.”

We’ll see….

FIVE DAYS UNTIL CAMELBACK RANCH!

Belisario is stuck in a time warp (but says he hasn’t missed any appointments-not the first time the government has lied).  George Sherrill has nagging injuries.  James McDonald has been getting shelled, and Eric Gagne isn’t Eric Gagne anymore.  

Now, we hear that Hong chih Kuo was scratched from a start in the far East because of a sore elbow, which almost “made him cry”.  Details from  Ken Gurnick

Kuo’s elbow is holding on by a thread.  How long can we count on him?  Or not?

Eric Stults continued to impress with 3 shutout innings (0 Walks, 4 K’s).  Ditto with Carlos Monasterios!  Throw in the Ortiz’s and things are interesting.

Oh, and it’s way early – anything can happen.  And, probably will!

By actual count, the Dodgers have 32 pitchers in Spring Training Camp who are vying for 12 spots.  I cannot see any way that Joe Torre decides to go with 13 pitchers.  With the off days and all, I think he will break camp with 12 pitchers.  That means that 20 have to go.

There are 11 Non-Roster invitees:

Also on the 40 man roster are McDonald, Link. Zerpa, Wade, Schlichting, Leach and Elbert as players who have a shot at making the team.

The way I see it, unless Stults and/or Haeger really mess up or get traded or go on the DL, they will both make the team.  That would make 11 pitchers.

Monasterios has a shot unless the Dodgers want to lose him (I have never seen him pitch, so I have no clue).  Then there’s Wade (remember how good he was in 2008?), Weaver (great swingman), Miller (solid), Gagne (no way?  way!) and McDonald and Lindblom (the future, who could all go to AAA).

The Dodgers have plethora of arms.  Who will win the arms race?

It should prove to be interesting.

DODGERS TALK:

• According to Steve Dilbeck of THE LA TIMES, the Dodgers are steamed about Ronald Beliasrio.  Sometimes things like this end badly for a player:

“I think it’s a problem now.  The pitchers need all this time. Of course, he did play winter ball. But I can’t really tell you [his condition]  until I see him.”

• Dylan Hernandez and Bill Shaikin report that Garrett Anderson is a Dodger.  This should prove to be interesting as Mientkiewicz, Giles and Anderson compete for one spot.
• Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus writes on ESPN/LA’s Pay Blog that Clayton Kershaw’s new Slider Makes Him a Cy Young Candidate (Thanks to Jon Weisman)
•  Tony Jacksonreports that Ned Colletti is not happy with Belisario either.  I am beginning to think the guy is a knucklehead!  Tony also reported this:

 The situation ultimately could cost Belisario a considerable amount of money, as well. He has only one year of big-league service time, meaning he will have a split contract with a major-league salary of no more than about $415,000 this season, and he won’t even get that much if he is in the minors.There also is a provision, known as Regulation 6, in the current Basic Agreement between owners and the players’ union that would allow the Dodgers to suspend Belisario without pay and require him to stay behind in extended spring training when the team breaks camp if he doesn’t report at least 33 days before the start of the season.The Dodgers’ season opener is April 5 at Pittsburgh, meaning Belisario already has missed that deadline and the Dodgers already have that option.”In the event of the failure of the Player to report for practice or to participate in the exhibition games, as required or provided for,” the regulation reads, “he shall be required to get into playing condition to the satisfaction of the Club’s team manager, and at the Player’s own expense, before his salary shall commence.”The phrase “to the satisfaction of the Club’s team manager” means the length of such a suspension would be entirely at the Dodgers’ discretion.

Spring Training has broken out at Camelback Ranch and the news is pouring in:

• According to Ken Gurnick, Dodgers’ Bullpen Coach Ken Howell discovered a flaw in Eric Gagne’s delivery which he is attempting to correct.

The former Cy Young Award-winning closer made a quick adjustment and, according to Howell, immediately gained velocity on his fastball and drop on his changeup, although not yet with enough consistency.

• Sandy Koufax toutors young Dodger pitchers
• Eric Stults gets first shot as the 5th Starter
• Joe Torre gets Koufax and Kershaw together for some quality time
• The best part of the interview with Koufax was when TJ Simers asked “What bugs you?” to which Sandy responded “Sportswriters like you.” Classic Koufax
• By introducing Clayton Kershaw at the interview, it is obvious the Dodgers are anointing him the opening day starter, and evidently Joe Torre and the Dodger Brass believe he is ready and able to take a huge step forward this year and be our ACE!
• Dylan Hernandez on whether Andre Ethier is moody (maybe he’s just focused)
• Hong-Chih Kuo from Dylan Hernandez
• Steve Dilbeck on Eric Stults and that the job is his to lose
• Stults starts the game today against the ChiSox

Our 2010 Starting Rotation

Well, if you ask me… and you didn’t (but I’m going to tell you anyway), it’s Young Clayton.  Maybe it’s a rush job, but maybe it’s not.  Maybe he’s ready.  Not “maybe” – he ISready!   I think it’s likely that Clayton Kershaw will be even better this year.  His ERA might not reflect that, but he will pitch deeper into games and flirt with 20 wins this year.  After Clayton, will come Chad Billingsley, followedby Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, with the 5th Spot being Eric Stults to lose.

Unless Charlie Haeger is a disaster during the spring, he will battle Jeff Weaver for the “swingman” spot in the pen.  The rest of the bullpen is less clear.  We do know that Jon Broxton, George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso, Hong chih Kuo and James McDonald will probably all make the team barring injury.  I just can’t see Weaver and Haeger both making the team, as they are competing for the same position, but if it comes down to it, they will keep Charlie and send Jeff to AAA (at least for a few weeks under the guise of building arm strength).

That leaves a lot of pitchers up for grabs, including Ronnie Belisario, whom Joe Torre may want to demote for a while after his Visa problems two years in a row.   We also have Cory Wade, who could flat-out make the team out of Spring training, and Carlos Monasterios (who could be bought or have another player sent to his former team, and demoted).  Lindblom, Zerpa, Miller, Towers and Elbert all seem slated for AAA.

While it would be a “feel good” story and great if it happened, the odds are against Eric Gagne making the team.  Would he accept an assignment to AAA?  Maybe for a few weeks, but hey, this is Spring – anything can happen.

Let’s not forget, however, that there is always a pitching surprise.  Belisario was the big one last year.  Who will it be this year?

Rants & Raves

• I keep thinking about it and I can’t see Brian Giles or Doug Mientkiewicz making the team, especially if Xavier Paul has a rousing Spring
• Ronnie Belliard has to weigh below 210 pounds tomorrow – if he doesn’t, is he off the team.  At any rate, I don’t see him as a starter.  He’s a role-player (like last year).
• Russ Martin will be the All-Star Catcher in the NL this year – Write that down!
• Oh, and in case you don’t understand – I still say Clayton Kershaw will be our Opening Day Starter.

It turns out that Ronnie Belisario and I have a lot in common – No I don’t have a DUI, but we both have Visa problems that prevented us from reporting yesterday.  He hasn’t been able to obtain his, and I have to work to pay mine off!  So there you go.  Joe Torre isn’t mad at me , but he is mad at Ronnie! 

Spring is that time of year when the “little boy” in us all dreams big dreams: 

• Manny will have an MVP season
• Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier will combine to hit 80 HR and drive in 240
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw will be 1,2 or 2,1 in CY Young voting
• Russell Martin and Rafael Furcal will win Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves
• Eric Gagne will regain his form to become “Game Over” Gagne
• From James McDonald, Eric Stults and Charlie Haeger will emerge a #5 starter who goes 200 innings
• BelliCarroWitt will combine to hit over .300 at 2B
• Casey Blake didn’t have his career year last year – he will have it in 2010 – with a beard, no less

Now, most of those dreams will not happen, but some will and it’s going to be fun to see which ones play out.

Spring Notes:

• The Dodgers and Torre are working on an extension of one more year.
• Russell Martin allegedly looks like a fullback and has muscled up this year.  The last two years, he worked on flexibility and that simply didn’t work.  He’s allegedly about 20+ pounds heavier.
• To those of you who expect Casey Blake to have a bad year at 37, just look back at Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt and Pete Rose at 37.  If a guy takes care of himself, there no reason he can’t be at his peak then and I think that Casey Blake, while not in the category of the three above-mentioned 3B, is a candidate to do as good, probably better than last year.
• Rumor has it that James Loney may have “bulked up” over the winter.  That would make some of those fly balls, “Big Flies.”

Must Reading:

• Tony Jackson on Eric Gagne
• Dylan Hernandez on Chad Billingsley
• TJ Simers with a “Feel Good” Article on “Game Over”

Pitchers and Catchers report on February 2o, 2010 and the first workout is February 21, 2010, so I am going to take a few days off.  I’ll be back on the 20th or 21st. 

I’ll leave you with a few things to cuss and discuss:

• Is it possible that the Combination of Reed Johnson and Brian Giles will be even better than Juan Pierre last year?  Think about that one really hard.
• Why can’t a guy who hit over .300 for the first two months of 2008 and is in his 6th professional season make the transition to everyday 2B?  Think about this:  9 trips!  That has to have an effect, but also serves to help you grow up real quick.  Is it possible we will see the 2008 April and May Blake DeWitt all year?
• Jamey Carroll can play every infield position and every outfield position (he hasn’t played SS for a couple of years, but he can in an emergency) and hits nearly .350 as a pinch hiiter.  Do you think he might have some value? 
• Could this be THE year Kuroda is injury-free (remember, it’s not his arm that has been the problem)?
• Does anyone in their right mind think that sometime  between September 2008 and August 2009, Manny Ramirez just “lost it?’   OR, is it possible you could see him be a beast in the least year of his contract?
• What are the chances in July or August that a team who (1) loses a closer to injury, or (2)  has a closer who is not getting the job done, elects to trade for Ronnie Belisario and/or George Sherrill?
• The Dodgers will have a shuttle to and from Albaquacky (I can’t spell Albuquerque) all year -especially for the pitching staff.  At any given time, we could have Troncoso,  Wade, Schlichting, Leach, Lindblom, Miller and Felix there at any given minute.  Expect to see a lot of movement to and from there.
• DARKHORSE:  Ivan DeJesus, Jr. – Could he “sieze the day at 2B?s  Brian Barton (who?) – You never know!!!
• Charles Haeger is out of options and so is Eric Stults.  If, for no other reason than that, they will be given a shot at being the #5.   Because of that, I think Scott Elbert starts the year at AAA.  James McDonald might end up back in AAA so that he can start as well, but I think he’ll play out better as a reliever.  We’ll see.
• Could it be that the Dodgers won’t have a  true SS as a backup this year?  Carroll could well be the emergency SS and Hu and Green would only be a cab ride away. 
• There’s a real chance Amezaga won’t play this year.
• I think the Dodgers will go with 11 pitchers in April.
• Belliard is not a lock to make the team!

This could be your Opening Day Lineup & Roster:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Ethier  RF
5. Manny  LF
6. Loney  1B
7. Blake  3B
8. DeWitt  2B
9. Billingsley  P

Reserves:

1. Carroll
2. Belliard or Doug M ( I can’t spell Mientkiewicz)
3. Giles
4. Johnson
5. Ausmus

Pitchers:

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Haeger
6. Stults
7. Kuo
8. Sherrill
9. Belisario
10. Troncoso
11. Broxton

I’ll be in Carmelback from March 20-27, 2010.  See you there.

Carry on!

It pains me a great deal when fans berate players - ”He’s a bum.”  “He’s worthless.”  “He can’t play.”  

What do we know?  As it turns out, not much.   I will say that anyone who plays at the major league level is so far advanced over anyone else that it’s like comparing my writing ability to Jon Weismans’.  The worst guy in the majors is so much better than any of us ever were.  Think about that for a minute.

When a hitter is in a slump or pitcher just can’t find the strike zone, we fans only look at the results, but fail to consider the underlying circumstances (if they can even be known).  For example, Eric Stults lost his mother to cancer.  In most cases, this is not an “overnight” thing, but something that can consume several years.  By all accounts, Eric was close to his mother, so when he knew she was sick (and maybe no one else knew) how did that affect his ability to pitch?  “He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

What were the dynamics surrounding Manny Ramirez when he was suspended and after his suspension?   He’s a  proud person who was humiliated.  I believe that his problems last year were more “emotional” than physical.   I don’t condone what he did (the steroids), but part of me feels sorry for him because he’s never had to deal with anything like this, and as an elite athlete, he’s ill-equipped to handle it.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

James McDonald seems to get that “deer-in-the-headlights” look when he suddenly walks batters with two outs.  He’s young, inexperienced, and who knows what is going on in his life?  Not me.  Not most reporters!  But, boy-oh-boy, he can pitch when he throws strikes!  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

What about Chad Billingsley?  He’s newly married (I won’t even go there) and he had a broken leg and he’s very young. I mean, there are so many possible distractions and issues in his life that I could write a book about it.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

Rafael Furcal had back surgery before last season and was never the same in 2009.  He was friends with Andruw Jones (who had to leave due to illness – the Dodgers were sick of him)and who knows what else was happening in his life, in addition to rehabbing his back.  It takes time to come back all the way from that – even when you think you are OK, you aren’t… mentally!  In addition, Raffy has his best years in “even years” – look it up – that bodes well for 2010.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

When I think about what goes on in my life – my kids, my wife, my business, my health, my parents and in-laws (actually, I have no parents and in-laws anymore as they have all passed, so maybe that’s easier in some ways), but you get the point – we all have a lot of “stuff” in our lives.  So do ballplayers.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

All of this gives me pause, because the power of the human spirit is incredible!   I have hope (and tangible evidence from others) that Eric Stults, Manny Ramirez, James McDonald, Rafael Furcal and Chad Billingsley could actually harness their vast talent (initially or again) and put up some great numbers.  In fact, I will go on record that there will be no “middle ground” with Manny – he will be very good… or very bad!  I am betting on the VERY GOOD part, like .310/37/124.  That would play well in the middle of our lineup!

I name these five players, because I think they are in a unique position – they are all poised for breakout (or comback) years in 2010!  If that happens, LOOK OUT!  This could be a very SPECIAL season.

The Dodger roster is finally coming together and now the discussions are changing from where is the rest of the team to why did they sign these slugs.  For the 2010 season the Dodger management, more than ever, must attempt to simultaneously win the NL West, delay the major league start dates of the future prospects (and their higher salaries), and have a fresh batch of players ready to graduate from the minors to the majors in case any of the players on the 25 man roster go on the DL for any significant length of time.  This is no small task to simultaneously accomplish these, and possibly other, partially contradictory objectives.

Most of us are of the opinion that the Dodger management is behaving as if without trading a player like Sherrill, the Dodgers do not have the budget, or the prospects, to go out and find replacements during the 2010 season.  Supporting this view is the Dodgers stockpiling of veterans on the 25 man bench, has beens in AAA, and prospects in AAA and AA.

In my opinion this is the correct approach for the 2010 season.  One factor is the increasing salary of the Dodger’s young stars.  Even with Manny, Kuroda, Padilla, and a few others probably not coming back for 2011 or 2012, the Dodger projected player salaries for those two future years is already more than $80 mil. With a 2011 team salary of $85 mil that is missing at least 2 starter pitchers, 1-2 position players, and several bench players, I conclude that the Dodger’s organizational Budget and Payroll is going to be a major issue for several years. 

Therefore, the Dodgers can no longer afford to sign multiple free agents.  Now they must develop the young players.  This approach may cause consternation among those of us that hope for a World Series title this decade. The current economic reality is the new reality and I for one will not be an ostrich and pretend otherwise.  (I am not a Politician) Maybe we can hope for another season with players who play most of the season in the zone like 1988.  Who will rise to the top this year?  Will the Coaches allow the players to pace themselves in 2010?  Will the pitchers learn how to trust their stuff, use the same correct pitching motion more than 50 percent of the time, and will the starters be forced to maintain a level of endurance that is necessary for them to actually make more than 90 pitches in a game?

Considering the Dodger’s unfunded future payroll obligations I am content with the following pitching plan for 2010:

Starting Pitching

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Stults

Long Relief

1. Weaver (Add to 40-man roster at the end of spring training)
   1. Heager
   2. Monasterios or Zerpa (Waive one of them at the end of spring training)

Short Relief

1. Broxton
2. Sherrill  (Candidate for a Trade)
3. Belisario
4. Kuo

Starters building innings at AAA or AA for 2011 rotation opportunity

1. McDonald
2. Lindblum
3. Troncoso
4. Elbert
5. Link

Starting Pitching alternatives in case of a starter going on the 15 day DL

1. McDonald
2. Troncoso
3. Elbert
4. Link

Starting Pitching additional alternatives in case of a starter going on the 60 day DL

1. Josh Lindblum
2. Russ Ortiz
3. Ramon Ortiz
4. Alberto Bastardo

Relievers building experience for 2011 bullpen opportunity

1. Wade
2. Schlitling
3. Leach
4. Jensen
5. Guerra

Reliever alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 15 day DL

1. Wade
2. Schlitling
3. Leach
4. Jensen
5. Guerra

Reliever additional alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 60 day DL

1. Justin Miller
2. Luis Ayala
3. Francisco Felix
4. Josh Towers

After the addition of Vicente “Gunsmoke” Padilla, Ned Colletti said that it was unlikely that the Dodgers would sign another starter.   Why would they want another starter?  If they can’t get a 5th starter from this list, then they should just quit:  Charlie Haeger, Scott Elbert, Eric Stults and Carlos Monasterios.  I won’t stoop to including Russ Ortiz in that list, although I imagine he’s got a real long-shot at it.   I think it will boil down to Stults and Haeger, but you never know what can happen in the Spring.

What are the odds that Padilla has a better year than Wolf?  Pretty good, I predict!  Padilla has every reason in the world to act right, train hard, pitch good and step up.  If he wins 12-15 games with a sub 4.00 ERA, he’ll be in line for a bigger payoff next year.  It is in situtaions such as this that starters like Padilla can put up their “career year.”

It appears to me that James McDonald is going to pitch out of the pen this year.  I thought that there might be chance that Troncoso would be given a shot at starting, but with the wave of youngsters we have at A headed to AA and beyond (Withrow, Martin, Miller, Eovaldi, Gould and others), McDonald, Troncoso and even Lindblom could be slotted as relievers. 

George Sherrill is still a candidate to be moved – probably in the Summer when someone needs a closer. 

As for me, I’m rooting for Eric Stults.  Indiana Boys have to stick together.

At the age of 24 J.A. Happ of the Phillies was in AAA where he complied a 4-6 record with a 5.02 ERA.  At the age of 25, also in AAA, he improved to 8-7 with a 3.60 ERA, and also had a “cup of coffee” with the Phillies where he went 1-0 with a 3.69 ERA in 31 innings.   However at age 26, he had his “breakout year” and went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA while pitching more innings that he ever had (166).  

I point this out because 2009 was Happ’s 6th season in the Phillie system.   2010 will be Scott Elbert’s 7th season,  Eric Stults’ 9th, James McDonald’s 6th (as a pitcher), Charlie Haeger’s 9th professional season, and Carlos Monasterios’ 5th pro season.  It’s not foolish or wishful thinking to believe that one, maybe two of these guys could step up and fill a rotation spot.  I’m sure that the Dodgers would rather not COUNT on this, but the fact of the matter is that one of those pitchers could easily step up and make it happen. 

I would guess that Charlie Haeger would be the top candidate for the 5th spot, but who can deny James McDonald’s outstanding stuff?  It could be his time to” go J.A. Happ!”  This is what makes baseball so much fun – just when you think you have it figured out, YOU DON’T!  These kids just have a way of stepping up when you least expect it.

I am going to go one step further and say that I still believe there could be a three or four-way trade involving Russ Martin, Jon Broxton, George Sherrill and prospects, which would net us a Top Starter.  If his market stays suppressed, the Dodgers could then sign Molina to a two-year deal.

Around the League:

• The Giants got the LH power bat they were seeking by signing Aubrey Huff (be still my heart).  He is capable of having a very good year now and again, but he’s a journeyman…
• The Reds allegedly have signed Aroldis Chapman.  Hummmmm…

Here’s a great analysis about Jason Repko from Phil Gurnee of TrueBlueLa:

Based on what Ned Colletti is saying, Jason Repko appears to be staying around for the moment. With the Dodgers trying very hard to trade Juan Pierre and his contract for either a starting pitcher or a 2nd baseman the battle for who becomes the Dodger fourth outfielder looks to come down to Jason Repko or Xavier Paul.  It would seem a given that Paul is the better candidate to be the fourth outfielder but is he?

Xavier Paul does everything as well as Repko in the field. Repko is faster on bases. What Paul does not  do well is hit LHP.  He hits RHP as well as Repko hits LHP but my argument is that this team needs someone to caddy for Andre.  If Manny was to get hurt, then I’d bring up Paul to be the everyday LF not Repko, but for a guy off the bench Repko might be that guy.

Jason Repko does many things well that you would look for in a backup outfielder. The thing he does best however is mash LHP.  His slug% against LHP over the last three minor league season has been greater then .585 every year and twice it has topped .600.  The Dodgers have a need for guy who can hit LHP and play RF. Repko can be that guy. What he can’t do is hit RHP, so the Dodgers will need to have a guy like Minky on the bench who can handle that role.

The Dodgers starting outfield is Manny, Kemp, and Andre. Of those three only one has a serious chink in their armor. That chink is that Andre does not hit left handed pitching very well. For his career Andre has a 200 point split in his OPS between facing RHP and LHP. Last year that split widened to .926 compared to .629. Part of the problem the Dodgers had last year with Pierre on the bench was that we could not use Pierre in RF to sit Andre against some LHP. The gain in moving Kemp to RF and Pierre to CF,with the left handed Pierre facing left handed pitching just wasn’t worth it.

They both can play all the positions of the outfield, they both have plus speed, and they both have guns for arms. So that is how they are the same. How they are different is probably why I think that Repko might be the better fit for a fourth outfielder role.

Keeping Repko is a bsaeball decision, obviously not a $$$$ decision

Dylan Hernandez reports that the Dodger have decided not to sell Eric Stults to Japan.  Another baseball decision.

I think that Pierre will be gone soon and Repko and Paul will be our extra outfielders.

Coming up soon:

Logan White and De Jon Watson discuss the Dodgers Minor Leagues and players like Lambo and Gordon.  Watch for it on Friday right here on LAdodgertalk.com

I had a cheesy grin on my face as I read the Top 200 Prospect list put out by True Blue LA.  The Dodgers do not have 200 Prospects.  They have about 20 PROSPECTS and 180 SUSPECTS!  However, the Dodgers Organization is not nearly as bereft of prospects as some think.  We don’t have a bunch that are major-league ready, but DeJesus, Lindblom, Elbert, Haeger, Schlichting and Leach are all close to ready and while I don’t see any as “superstars” I believe that some of them will be very good players.  However, we are in a position where we don’t need a bunch of young players RIGHT NOW.

Behind the players mentioned above are Gordon, Lambo, Robinson, Van Slyke, Russell, Withrow, Adkins, Martin, Eovaldi, May, Mitchell, Baez, Jansen, Delmonico, Gallagher, Miller and Guerra.  Some of those guys will be complete “busts” and others who are not on the radar will step up.   Additionally, last years draft has yielded some very good prospects. 

All-in-all, we have 4 or 5 young players who could make the team this year and the second wave is another year or two away.  We don’t have the Jacksonville Five, but in 2011 you could see the Lambo Leap! Read the full story

The Dodgers have improved over 2008.   They won more games, but they still couldn’t get past the Phillies, and the Phillies will still be good next year.  I suspect that Raul Ibanez had his career year and will slip back to reality next year and the Phillies will have some holes to fill, just like the Dodgers.  Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have a former ace who needs to come back and I believe both will.  It would not surprise me to see either one win a Cy Young Award in the future, even as easly as next year.  I fully expect Hamels and Billingsley to both win 16-18 games next year.  Both pitchers have too much talent.

Manny will return as Manny, because he’s playingfor Manny,  and the Dodgers should benefit from his quest for a new contract, in what will certainly be his last year as a Dodger.  Look for Manny to hit .320+ with 35 HR and 130 RBI.  I look for more growth by Kemp and Ethier as both become perennialAll-Stars.   Russ Martin?  He’ll be back with a vengeance!  Count on it!    I do see two areas in which the Dodgers need to improve:  They need more power from 3B and 1B and they will get it from James Loney at 1B, who I believe will hit around 25 dingers.  He has shown he is capable.  3B is another issue.  Casey Blake had a better year than I expected, but he’s still a journeyman at best.   We need a big HR bat at 3B and will will get robbed if we try and trade or one.  Here’s what we do:  Sign Adrian Beltre!  Sign Adrian Beltre.   He loves LA and is a cinch to hit 30 for the Dodgers.  Yeah, I know you don’t believe me, but he will!    If you want to look at stats, then I’ll use the year he hit 48 HR as a stat!  He’s young enough that we can sign him to a 5 year deal.   That means we need to dump Blake, and we can do that in a deal for Roy Halliday. I purpose that we trade Jon Broxton, Casey Blake, James McDonald, Ethan Martin,  and Chris Withrow to Toronto for Roy Halliday (pay a lot, get a lot).  I am not a Blake hater, but we need to get younger and better at 3B! Read the full story

 This team is far from needing rebuilding, but any good team needs to ”retool” every year.  Last year, the Phillies won the World Series with Pat Burrell in LF.  They evidently decided

Must Be A Padre Fan...

 that he wasn’t the answer this year, so they signed a guy even older who ended up having his career year.   The Phillies may yet be sorry that they signed Raul Ibanez, but right about now, that move is looking pretty good.    They added Shane Victorino and Jason Werth in 2005 and 2007 as key pieces to the puzzle.  How did they get them?  No Big Blockbuster Deals, just incidental signings, which turned out to be pretty good.    I don’t think we need to rebuild – the core of the team is in place, but re-tool, we must!

I have taken the 40-Man Roster, plus some others who are technically not on it and divided them into three (3) groups:

1. Core players who we need to keep – in BLUE;
2. Players who we needs to keep under the right conditions – in BLACK; and
3. Players we need to try and lose, trade, release or not sign – in RED.

It’s not hard to see that our core is young and will get even better.  I have Jon Broxton on the BLUE list (even though I have serious doubts about him), because we don’t currently have better options (that too could change).  Now, I am not saying that I wouldn’t trade Broxton or some of the others, but it would have to be a trade that we would make from a point of strength.  Read the full story

But, they might just help us win the World Series.  I love Juan Pierre, but would you rather have him or Jim Thome as DH in the World Series?  Well, we now have a choice.  Thome says that he is not physically able to play 1B (although I suspect we will see him there from time-to-time), but he is a potent LH batter and even though he is in the twilight of his career, he has a .373 OB% and still slugs .500.    Jon Garland has “been there, done that” and is a solid starter who could benefit immensely by pitching in the Ravine.  We now have 7 starters (as soon as Kuroda comes back).  Torre has lots of options, including a 6-man rotation and giving Clayton some rest. 

The down side is that we have to give up Tony Abreu, but this is war and there are casualities.  I hate to see him go…

Dave Duncan, Anyone?

The NY Times Dave Waldstein broke an article on August 30th that Dave Duncan might leave the Cardinals next year.  The Dodgers should jump into that fray, assuming that only 29 other teams would be interested.   Here’s a couple of excerpts from the article:

Duncan has expressed displeasure over the way his son Chris, a Cardinals outfielder who was traded to Boston earlier this summer, had been treated in the news media, and he ceased speaking to the St. Louis-area newspapers. He did take time to speak to an out-of-town reporter and pondered for a moment the notion that the highly successful partnership he and La Russa forged during the 1980s might soon be disbanded.

“It would be different,” he said. “Who knows what the future will bring?”

I am sure that there are lots of hidden dynamics here, not the least of which is the relationship between Duncan and LaRussa: over 25 years!  But hey, when we trade Russ Martin to the Red Sox, all we have to do is insist that Theo throw in Chris Duncan and then pay Plaschke and Simers to never write anything bad about the kid.  That could put the Dodgers at the head of the class.

Smart Stuff From Around the Web Read the full story