Some people are saying that the Dodgers are a .500 team (when I say “some people” I don’t mean “informed baseball people”), which I think is just plain delusional.  I think sometimes Dodger fans fail to take into consideration that change is inevitable, and often, it is good.  Will everything be OK?  Seth Godin summed it up today by saying:

It’s natural to seek reassurance. Most of us want to believe that the choices we make will work out, that everything will be okay.

Artists and those that launch the untested, the new and the emotional (and I’d put marketers into all of these categories) wrestle with this need all the time. How can we proceed knowing that there’s a good chance that our actions will fail, that things might get worse, that everything won’t end up okay? In search of solace, we seek reassurance.

So people lie to us. So we lie to ourselves.

No, everything is not going to be okay. It never is. It isn’t okay now. Change, by definition, changes things. It makes some things better and some things worse. But everything is never okay.

Finding the bravery to shun faux reassurance is a critical step in producing important change. Once you free yourself from the need for perfect acceptance, it’s a lot easier to launch work that matters.

Will the Dodgers be OK?  We are so much in the middle of the Forest that we can’t see the trees, or is it we can’t see the Forest for the trees?  I will leaf that alone.  What I will say is that we often look at how a player performed last year and extrapolate that into the next.  What we fail to factor in is that we have a very young team and these guys often get better by leaps and bounds.  In some cases you can count on it.  I think we forget how far some of our young player have come, how much they have matured and how they will almost certainly continue down that same path. 

In the middle of the long, cold winter, I usually pick-up a copy of Lindy’s Fantasy Baseball(I never play it myself), because over the years, I have found that their takes are pretty close to the reality.  I don’t know for sure, but I think that they use a variety of statistical analysis as well as scouting resources to reach their conclusions.  At any rate, I have read them for many years and their accuracy rate is exceptional when predicting what players might do.  I thought I’d share a few of their predictions:

• Russell Martin is the 7th Highest Ranked Catcher in Baseball behind Soto, Posada, Wieters, McCann, Martinez and Mauer – no surprise there. He is rated ahead of Suzuki, Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, Yadier Molina,  Chris Iannetta and Mike Napoli.  I caught a lot of heat from some of you for ranking him that high, but you can see I’m not the only one!   (Projection:  .269/9 HR/58 RBI/470 AB)  Comments:  “He inexplicably morphed into Jason  Kendall with slightly more pop, slipping even in stolen bases, a category he once dominated.  He’ll either return to fantasy relevance or fade into oblivion this season.”
• James Loneyis the 15th Highest Rated First Baseman is Baseball ranked ahead of Chris Davis, Paul Konerko, Adam LaRoche, Jorge Cantu, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Casey Kotchman and Aubrey Huff (Projection:  .281/18 HR/30 DBL/92 RBI) Comments:  “There’s a lack of sizzle and a whole lot of Mark Grace going on here.  A more critical peek at his numbers reveals Loney is becoming more patient (70 walks last season), suggesting a brighter future.  He’s due for a spike … don’t bet on an explosion.”
• Of course, the Dodgers don’t have anyone rated at 2B, but I do hope they give Blake DeWitt the opportunity.  If he and Carroll can’t cut it, then we can make a deal.  Second-basemen are a dime a dozen and that All-Star you all wanted back (Orlando Hudson) is only the 16th rated at his position (and he wants $9 mil a year?  HA!).
• Casey Blake is ranked #17 at 3B, right ahead of Casey McGhee, Andy LaRoche, Garrett Atkins, Jhonny Peralta, Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigington and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  (Projection:  .276/18 HR/ 76 RBI).  The words they use as “consistent” and “solid.”  Certainly, he ’s no star, but we could do worse.  
• Raffy Furcal is ranked the #14 SS and Lindys calls him “No longer an elite fantasy option, as injuries have robbed him of his speed and power.”  (Projection: .283/10 HR/51 RBI/15 SB)  If he can put up those numbers with a .360 OB%, we will be fine. “Hurry up Dee Gordon!”
• Ryan Braun is rated the #1 outfielder, but #2 is none other than our Matt Kemp (Projection: .302/35 DBL/8 TRIP/31 HR/105 RBI/38 SB).  Those are “elite” numbers.  Andre Ethier is rated #16 (Projection: .293/36 DBL/30 HR/102 RBI) and Manny Ramirez is #18 (Projection: .302/26 HR/86 RBI).  They say that they still believe “Ethier will win a batting title” and that “Manny still has an elite batting eye and isn’t done being relevant in our game.”  If that prediction holds up for our outfielders, the Dodgers should be very good offensively.  In fact, that should be baseballs best offensive outfield.
• When it comes to pitching, Lindys has Clayton Kershaw at #16, just ahead of Cliff Lee!  Chris Carpenter was #15.  Other pitchers ranked behind Kershaw are:  Vazquez, Cain, Beckett, Jimenez, Webb, Peavy, Shields and Lackey who was rated #25, just ahead of Chad Billingsley at #26.  (Projections:  Kershaw- 16-6/2.88 ERA /198 IP/156 H/210 K/1.24 WHIP; Billingsley – 14-11/3.72 ERA/202 IP/180 H/188 K/1.29 WHIP).  Here’s what they say about Clayton:  “He’s a still a work in progress, last summer adding a slider to compliment his mid-90’s fastball and all-world curveball.  Check out Fangraphs.com for more on his slider and put a check next to his name on your cheatsheet.  He’s going to be unstoppable in the very near future.”  Yeah, like maybe in 2010?  Billingsley was rated ahead of the likes of Baker, Garza, Rodriguerz, Lilly, Weaver, Dempster, Nolasco, Anderson, Oswalt, Burnett, Bucholz, Jurrjens, Danks, Jackson and Harden.  They regards the 2nd half of 2009 as a “hiccup.”  Hiroki Kuroda was ranked #49, ahead of Hudson, Kazmir, Maine, Sherzer, Saunders, Pineiro, Zambrano and Randy Wolf (who was #65, and they predict 10 wins with an ERA over 4.00 for him).  They project Kuroda at 11-8 with a 3.63 ERA/182 IP and ad WHIP of 1.20.  Of Kuroda they said “his underlying numbers are solid and the injuries were not arm-related.“  Vicente Padilla weighed in at #96 (not bad for a #4), just behind Jon Garland at #95.  They project him at 12-10 with a 4.33 ERA and 169 IP with a 1.43 WHIP.
• Which brings us to Jon Broxton, ranked #5 as a closer.  Here’s the crux of what they say about him (sounds like what I say):  “Perhaps a visit with a sports psychologist is in order…”  ‘Nuff said!  George Sherrill is rated #40 and Lindys thinks he could close more on the road, especially against LH’ers (where Brox has his issues).

So, while Lindy’s is not Bill James or Fangraphs, it’s still very useful, and I have found that their projections are quite accurate.  I think a lot of Dodger fans depreciate the value of a lot of our young players, as well as our role-players.  The 2010 Version of the LA Dodgers is destined to be VERY, VERY GOOD!  Now, depending upon what happens with the divorce, we could be buyers in August.  Get ready for a great season!  I see at leat 93 wins!

DODGER NEWS:

• Jon Weisman has an excellent post on the Dodgers lack of resources at this juncture.
• The Phillies have $130 million committed to 14 players in 2011, which means they may not be abale to sign Jason Werth.  Hummmm…
• The Dodgers could sign Noah Lowery as soon as NOW!

I had a cheesy grin on my face as I read the Top 200 Prospect list put out by True Blue LA.  The Dodgers do not have 200 Prospects.  They have about 20 PROSPECTS and 180 SUSPECTS!  However, the Dodgers Organization is not nearly as bereft of prospects as some think.  We don’t have a bunch that are major-league ready, but DeJesus, Lindblom, Elbert, Haeger, Schlichting and Leach are all close to ready and while I don’t see any as “superstars” I believe that some of them will be very good players.  However, we are in a position where we don’t need a bunch of young players RIGHT NOW.

Behind the players mentioned above are Gordon, Lambo, Robinson, Van Slyke, Russell, Withrow, Adkins, Martin, Eovaldi, May, Mitchell, Baez, Jansen, Delmonico, Gallagher, Miller and Guerra.  Some of those guys will be complete “busts” and others who are not on the radar will step up.   Additionally, last years draft has yielded some very good prospects. 

All-in-all, we have 4 or 5 young players who could make the team this year and the second wave is another year or two away.  We don’t have the Jacksonville Five, but in 2011 you could see the Lambo Leap! Read the full story

The Dodgers have improved over 2008.   They won more games, but they still couldn’t get past the Phillies, and the Phillies will still be good next year.  I suspect that Raul Ibanez had his career year and will slip back to reality next year and the Phillies will have some holes to fill, just like the Dodgers.  Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have a former ace who needs to come back and I believe both will.  It would not surprise me to see either one win a Cy Young Award in the future, even as easly as next year.  I fully expect Hamels and Billingsley to both win 16-18 games next year.  Both pitchers have too much talent.

Manny will return as Manny, because he’s playingfor Manny,  and the Dodgers should benefit from his quest for a new contract, in what will certainly be his last year as a Dodger.  Look for Manny to hit .320+ with 35 HR and 130 RBI.  I look for more growth by Kemp and Ethier as both become perennialAll-Stars.   Russ Martin?  He’ll be back with a vengeance!  Count on it!    I do see two areas in which the Dodgers need to improve:  They need more power from 3B and 1B and they will get it from James Loney at 1B, who I believe will hit around 25 dingers.  He has shown he is capable.  3B is another issue.  Casey Blake had a better year than I expected, but he’s still a journeyman at best.   We need a big HR bat at 3B and will will get robbed if we try and trade or one.  Here’s what we do:  Sign Adrian Beltre!  Sign Adrian Beltre.   He loves LA and is a cinch to hit 30 for the Dodgers.  Yeah, I know you don’t believe me, but he will!    If you want to look at stats, then I’ll use the year he hit 48 HR as a stat!  He’s young enough that we can sign him to a 5 year deal.   That means we need to dump Blake, and we can do that in a deal for Roy Halliday. I purpose that we trade Jon Broxton, Casey Blake, James McDonald, Ethan Martin,  and Chris Withrow to Toronto for Roy Halliday (pay a lot, get a lot).  I am not a Blake hater, but we need to get younger and better at 3B! Read the full story

The Top 10 - In No Particular Order

I have no clue where this “Debacle in the Ravine will take us, but I’d say Jamie does not have the upper hand.   No, I’m not going to speculate on who we will sign and who we won’t or who we should trade.  Today, I just want to do some “farming.”  Let’s take a look at the Dodgers top prospects. Read the full story

Do the Dodgers already have a ticket to the dance with Destiny this October?  After flirting with mediocrity for a couple of months, theDodgers are starting to peak late in the season.  It’s too early to anoint them Champs of anything, but they do have a magic number that we will post that until they clench.   The Rockies are fading as the Dodgers are surging (sure we are playing the AAA affiliate of the Indianapolis Indians)

MAGIC NUMBERS: 

• 11 to clinch the NL West
• 10 to clinch a Playoff spot  

Stats Matter But The Human Spirit Rules!

The Dodgers lead the league in team ERA and bullpen ERA, and baring a total collapse will end the year with the best ERA in baseball.   The Dodgers are first in batting average and forth in runs scored, and forth in fielding.   Stats matter, because of our stats, we are in first place.  Stats do matter, but stats aren’t the “end-all, be-all.”  Stats matter, but the human spirit rules!  How do you explain the power of the only at-bat in the 1988 World Series and how that one at-bat changed the course of Dodger history?  How can a lame, cold, bench-sitting  injured player with two bad legs hit a home-run off Dennis Eckersley, arguably the best relief pitcher of all time and turn the Series around with just one at-bat?  Get me a stat on that! Read the full story

• The Great Lakes Loons were the last Dodger team to be eliminated from the playoffs, losing to the Ft. Wayne Tin Caps last night 4-3 in 10
  

  Minor League Pitcher of The Year

  innings.  Dee Gordon was 1-5 with a stolen base, Kyle Russell was 1-2 with a BB and an RBI, Silverio hit a HR and Aaron Miller pitched a stellar 6 innings, allowing just 1 run and 1 hit.  It was all for naught as the Loons closer, Cole St. Clair blew the save in the 8th and lost the game in the 10th.  It was a good year for the Loons.

• It’s nice to play a minor league team for a change.  The Pirates are AAA, at best!
• Great article on our Dynamic Duo (Kemp & Ethier) by mlb.coms Doug Miller.
• Jon Garland has been a nice pickup hasn’t he?
• Andre is going to get 30 HR it appears!
• O-Dog is playing like a guy who gets $10,000 for every at bat!
• Can Russ Martin get his BA to .270 by the end of the year?  He’s hot, as is Loney.
• We just play different with Casey Blake in the lineup.
• Andy LaRoche went 2-3 against his former mates and is hitting a paltry .248.
• A Press Release from the Dodgers:

DODGERS NAME LEFT-HANDER SCOTT ELBERT AND SHORTSTOP DEE GORDON AS THE BRANCH RICKEY MINOR LEAGUE PITCHER AND PLAYER OF THE YEAR Read the full story

LOS ANGELES – The Dodgers’ minor league report is a weekly window into the Dodgers’ minor league system, with updated standings, league leaders, team and individual player stats, and the latest team and player news.  Player bios can be found in the Player Development section of the Dodgers’ Guide (Pages 411-478). by Jon Chapper, Dodger PR DepartmentTriple-A Albuquerque Isotopes
Pacific Coast League American South Division
73-59, 1st Place, 7.0 Games Ahead
Playoff Picture: In lead for playoff spot – Magic number is 7

DON’T BE J-ELLIS: C A.J. Ellis has hit safely in 15 of his last 16 games, batting .377 (20-for-53) with eight doubles and nine RBI…the 28-year-old is batting .358 (24-for-67) with eight doubles and 13 RBI in 21 August games…he is hitting .338 (27-for-80) with runners in scoring position…overall, he is batting .314 with 13 doubles and 37 RBI in 86 games…the Missouri native was selected in the 18th round of the 2003 draft. Read the full story

DODGERS SINGLE-A GREAT LAKES LOONS SHORTSTOP  DEE GORDON NAMED MIDWEST LEAGUE “PROSPECT OF THE YEAR”  - by Jon Chapper, Dodgers PR Department
Gordon also named Co-Most Valuable Player with teammate Kyle Russell.

LOS ANGELES – Dodgers Single-A Great Lake Loons shortstop Dee Gordon was selected Midwest League’s “Prospect of the Year” and shares the

Raffy's Replacement in 2011

 league’s Most Valuable Player honor with teammate Kyle Russell.  The announcement was made today by Midwest League President George Spelius.

Gordon currently leads the league with 153 hits, 69 stolen bases, and 11 triples and is tied for the league lead with teammate Jaime Pedroza with 88 runs scored.  The 21-year-old from Avon Park, FL is tied for first amongst all full-season minor league players in stolen bases, tied for sixth in hits, and tied for 13th in runs.  The fourth-round selection in the 2008 draft is batting .306 with three home runs and 32 RBI in 123 games.

Gordon entered the season ranked as the Dodgers’ No. 7 prospect according to Baseball America. The publication also ranked him as the fastest baserunner, best athlete, and best defensive infielder in the Dodgers’ minor league system. Gordon is the son of former major league pitcher Tom “Flash” Gordon.

Gordon becomes the second Loons player to be named Prospect of the Year, joining current Dodgers left-handed pitcher Clayton Kershaw who took the honor in 2007.

Co-MVP outfielder Kyle Russell is the current league leader with 25 home runs, 241 total bases, 65 extra base hits, and a .551 slugging percentage, and is tied for the top spot with 89 RBI. The 23-year-old is tied for fifth in all of Minor League Baseball in extra base hits and is batting .273 with 34 doubles in 121 games. Read the full story

That’s what we think, now that we expect a lot from him, but the fact of the matter is that Clayton Kershaw “getting bombed” means he gave up a few walks and 2 doubles.  He still has a

It's Time For The Offense to Rise Up

 2.91 ERA and has given up the fewest HR of any starter in baseball.  When Clayton gets bombed, the other team still doesn’t hit much – he just usually beats himself.  It happens to the best – in Dan Haren’s previous two starts he gave up 15 hits and 10 earned runs!  Clayton struggled with his release point last night and the results were evident.  Some guys give up the home-run ball when they don’t have it.   Dan Haren who is one of the best pitchers in the NL, has given up 18 HR in 169 IP.  Cole Hamels who has a 4.77 ERA has given up 20 in 121 innings.  Santana has given up 18, Cain 16,  Halladay 15, Sabathia 15, Verlander 14 and Linecum has given up 6.  Kershaw has only allowed 5 HR this year and 95 hits in 136 IP.  Even when he gets bombed, there are no bombs!  Clayton is actually better than I thought he would be this year.  Watch him grow and enjoy it!  I am.

Rants & Raves:

• Quietly,Josh Johnson is becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball.  He beat the Rockies last night to elevate his record to 12-2 and sports a 2.85 ERA.  This guy is tough!  He’s 25 and will be on the market in a couple of years.  I like his style a lot.  Keep rooting for the Marlins this weekend.
• Is Joe Torre aware he has Charlie Haeger on the staff?  Maybe he didn’t get the memo…
• The Dodgers signed Garrett Gould (6′ 4″  RH) who was their 65th pick, but was regarded as a first-round talent.  Many thought he would attend college at Witcha State.  That means that the Dodgers have signed thier first 11 picks!
• TJ Slimers of The LA Times says he is back from vacation and that the Dodgers could be gagging.  He was gone?  Who knew?
• Will Ohman says he’s pain-free and ready to help the Dodgers according to Jim Peltz of The LA Times.
• Our pitching was good enough to win last night, but only Manny and Kemp brought their bats.  Everyone else wore their dresses!
• I still say Raffy has to move to #8.  He’s impersonating a leadoff hitter and doing a poor job!  I like him on my team, but I don’t like him at leadoff.  It’s time to try something different…
• The Dodgers have moved Greg Miller to the Arizona Rookie League (their lowest classification).
• Tony Abreu is a better option than Mark “Get Back” Loretta.
• Dee Gordon will likely have over 80 SB’s this year.  He’s nearly as untouchable as Kershaw.
• Is Jon Broxton still on the team?  I think they are resting his toe…
• Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com says Billingsley is ready to return.

Minor League Recap – 8/14/09 by Jared of http://thinkbluela.blogspot.com/

Albuquerque won 12-6

Tony Abreu – 3 for 6, 2B, RBI, R, K (.347 BA)
Blake DeWitt – 1 for 5, R, BB, K (.255 BA)
Chin Lung Hu – 2 for 5, 3B, HR (4), 2 RBI, 3 R (.283 BA)

http://tinyurl.com/od85rm
Chattanooga lost 9-1

Andrew Lambo – 0 for 3, BB, K (.261 BA)

James Adkins – 3 IP, 7 Hits, 6 R (3 ER), 4 BB, 2 K’s (4.86 ERA)
Javy Guerra – 2 IP, Hit, ER, 2 BB, K (4.19 ERA)

http://tinyurl.com/qjq53k
Inland Empire won 6-5

Trayvon Robinson – 2 for 4, HR (15), RBI, R, BB, K, E (.306 BA)
Scott Van Slyke – 2 for 5, HR (20), RBI, 2 R, OF Assist (.290 BA)
Steven Caseres – 0 for 4, RBI, 2 K’s (.265 BA)

http://tinyurl.com/qb2xm6
Great Lakes won 6-5

Dee Gordon – 2 for 3, BB, K, 2 SB, CS (.302 BA)
Kyle Russell – 1 for 2, 2 R, 2 BB, K (.271 BA)
Mario Songco – 0 for 3, BB, K (.150 BA)
Alfredo Silverio – 1 for 3, HR (12), 3 RBI, 2 R, BB, K (.285 BA)
Jerry Sands – 2 for 4, 3B, HR (1), 3 RBI, R (.229 BA)

Cole St Clair – 1 IP, 0 Hits, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K’s (3.07 ERA)

http://tinyurl.com/q68cxf
Ogden lost 6-4

BCG – 2 for 4, HR (13), RBI, R, K, SB, OF Assist (.340 BA)
Nick Akins – 0 for 4, 2 K’s (.208 BA)
Kyle Orr – 0 for 4, K (.230 BA)
Blake Smith – 1 for 4, R, K (.208 BA)

http://tinyurl.com/ps22zo
AZL won 2-1

Michael Pericht – 0 for 3, RBI, 2 K’s, E (.230 BA)
Jonathan Garcia – 1 for 2, 2B, BB, HBP (.286 BA)

Greg Miller – 1 IP, Hit, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K’s (0.00 ERA)
Carlos Frias – 5 IP, 3 Hits, 0 R, 3 BB, 6 K’s (4.81 ERA)

http://tinyurl.com/q8ed42
Player of the Day – Jerry Sands, OF

Through 5 games, Sands’ production hasn’t dropped off since leaving the cozy confines of the Pioneer league. After clubbing 14 HR in 41 games with the Raptors, Jerry finally hit his first in 10 with the Loons. The strikeouts are back up (6 in 18 at bats), though half of those came in 1 game. While he was drafted out of college, Sands doesn’t turn 22 until the end of next month and could be a candidate to spend 2010 in the Inland Empire.