Q.  Why did Ned Colletti sign Jamey Carroll for $1.7 mil a year when he could have signed Felipe Lopez for $1 mil?

A.  Come one, can’t you figure this out on your own?  OK, I’m going to explain it to you r-e-a-l   s-l-o-w:  Ned just had some money in his pocket and wanted to spend it, before it burnt the proverbial hole.   Yeah, that’s the ticket!  COME ON!   Here’s the deal – when free agency started, the Dodgers knew that they were not going to re-sign Orlando Hudson and they did not want to be stuck without a second-baseman.  They knew that Lopez, Belliard and Company were wanting multi-year contracts North of $4 mil a year, so they made sure they had a 2B and signed Jamey, knowing that he could start if necessary, or be a utility player.  Lopez, Hudson and Belliard over-estimated the market.  Second Basemen who hit .280 and have single-digit home-run totals are a dime-a-dozen.  Yes, Ned may overpaid, but he had to secure a 2B early, if Blake DeWitt didn’t step-up.  To his credit, when the market dried up, he got another (Belliard).  Hindsight is 20/20 and it’s easy to look back and criticize a decision, but Ned did the prudent thing and locked up a 2B early.  It turns out there wasn’t much of a market for a 2B who’s not a hitter like Dan Uggla or Chase Utley.

Q.  The Dodgers were a .500 team in 2008 without Manny, why should we believe they can be any better in 2010?

A.  Hello?  Does the fact that the Dodger youngsters are 2 more years on the mature side have any bearing?  Hello?  Is anybody home?  Hello?  Hello?

Q.  Did getting sent up and down in 2009 really affect Blake DeWitt’s production last year?

A.  No, going back and forth between AAA was a piece of cake especially since DeWitt knew he wouldn’t win the 2B job anyway.  NOT!  Blake DeWitt thought he had the 2B job and then the Dodgers signed Hudson and bounced him back and forth like a yo-yo.  No, it had no effect!  ARE YOU CRAZY?  Of course it had a MAJOR EFFECT… unless he’s not human!

Dodger Notes:

• Russ Ortiz and Ramon Ortiz are both pitching “lights out.”  Russ is in the running for the #5 spot.  Who wooda thunk?  Could we really have 2 Ortiz’s come Opening Day?
• If Haeger doesn’t make the team, could he make the DL?  Stay tuned…
• The Number 5 Spot is Eric Stults to lose…
• Don Mattingley has once again proved he is not a rocket scientist!
• Don Mattingley should not be “automatic.”  I can think of two other managers I would rather have – Gibson & Wallach!
• As I suspected, Brian Giles could not handle playing anymore, so he retired.  1  down, 1 to go.
• Dylan Hernandez suggests that Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are now the “face of the organization.” – I have to agree.
• It turns out that Belisario IS a Knucklehead!  Read Tony Jackson’s piece about the moron.
• For the record, I think Matt Kemp would be awesome in the #2 spot and give teams fits there.  He would elevate the games of everyone in the lineup.   He’s a 40/40 threat – as soon as this year!
• I expect good things from these guys – THIS YEAR!

Starting Pitching ($22,800,000):

1. Kershaw (He will pitch great but with a losing record) $425K
2. Billingsley (He will figure “IT” out this year) $3,850,000
3. Padilla (Will surprise us this year) $5,025,000
4. Kuroda (50% probability of injury) $13,000,000
5. Stults (Will continue to pitch very erratically until Torre gives up on him) $500K

Relievers ($11,550,000):

1. Broxton (Will have an erratic year with some Great weeks) $4 mil
2. Kuo (Will have a great year unless Torre overuses him) $950K
3. Troncoso (Will probably have a sore arm in 2010) $460K
4. Sherrill (Will have an average year) $4.5 mil
5. Monasterios (Mop up guy for 2010 preparing for a good 2011 year) $410K
6. Weaver – (Swing Man will have a below average year/may be released) $750K
7. Heager – (Relieving will improve his game until he becomes a Starter) $430K

Others on 40 man Roster:

1. Elbert – (AAA) MLB Starter in waiting
2. McDonald – (AAA) MLB Starter in waiting
3. Link – AAA
4. Wade – AAA
5. Belisario – Released or traded
6. Schlitling – Sept Call up
7. Leach – Sept Call up
8. Jensen – Sept Call up
9. Guerra – AA
10. Zerpa – Released under Rule 5 rules

Position Players ($38,410,000):

1. Ellis (Will play good enough until Martin gets “IT”) $430K
2. Loney (2010 better than Wes Parker’s best year) $3.1 mil
3. DeWitt (Will play erratically until he finally uses the whole field) $410K
4. Furcal (Will have an above average year) $8.5 mil
5. Blake (Will have an average year with many minor injuries) $6 mil
6. Rameriz (Will have an erratic year) $10 mil
7. Kemp (Women weaken legs – Will play bad at home & good on the road) $4 mil
8. Either (Same as 2009) $6 mil

Bench Players ($4,375,000):

1. Ausmus (Will be passed by Ellis and converted to Coach) $850K
2. Carroll (Will play well & often but not worth the price) $1.35 mil
3. Belliard (Will be traded in mid-year) $825K
4. Anderson OF & 1B (Will be better than Sweeney) $550K
5. Johnson (Will play good enough until injured) $800K

Others on 40 man Roster ($5,050,000):

1. Martin – (Will struggle as the coaches attempt to correct his swing) $5.05 mil
2. Repko – Waived to create roster spot for Anderson
3. May – AAA
4. Robinson – AAA
5. DeJesus – AA
6. Paul – AAA until he replaces Johnson
7. Hu – AAA until he replaces Belliard

Written by Ken

Just a laundry list of a few things I expect to see this year:

• A healthy Rafael Furcal who is 100% physically and (most importantly) mentally (it takes a while to recover mentally from a surgery) regains his form and is again one of the elite short stops in baseball.  This alone makes a huge difference for the team.
• Blake DeWitt wins the 2B job and hits 18 HR’s silencing his critics, while playing a good 2B.  (Make No Mistake – the Dodgers want DeWitt to be the 2B).
• Reed Johnson and Jamey Carroll (who have been much maligned) become two important components of the team (THESE GUYS ARE BALLPLAYERS) and contribute mightily.
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw become Co-Aces.  Bills is in the best shape I’ve seen him.
• James Loney will hit for more power, as will Russ Martin – I can’t tell you what they will do, but I expect better results.
• George Sherrill will not do well this year – I would love to see the Dodgers trade him.  I can see an ERA of over 4.00.   Pull the trigger, Ned!  Just do it!
• There WILL BE a significant trade this Spring involving the Dodgers.
• Brian Giles will retire by next weekend.
• Ronnie Belliard will be insignificant and ultimately be released.
• Who will step up – Hu?
• Opening Day Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Kemp  CF
3. Ethier  RF
4. Ramirez  LF
5. Loney 1B
6. Blake  3B
7. DeWitt 2B
8. Martin  C
9. Kershaw  P

Televised Game Today at 12:05 PDT or 3:05 EDT

By actual count, the Dodgers have 32 pitchers in Spring Training Camp who are vying for 12 spots.  I cannot see any way that Joe Torre decides to go with 13 pitchers.  With the off days and all, I think he will break camp with 12 pitchers.  That means that 20 have to go.

There are 11 Non-Roster invitees:

Also on the 40 man roster are McDonald, Link. Zerpa, Wade, Schlichting, Leach and Elbert as players who have a shot at making the team.

The way I see it, unless Stults and/or Haeger really mess up or get traded or go on the DL, they will both make the team.  That would make 11 pitchers.

Monasterios has a shot unless the Dodgers want to lose him (I have never seen him pitch, so I have no clue).  Then there’s Wade (remember how good he was in 2008?), Weaver (great swingman), Miller (solid), Gagne (no way?  way!) and McDonald and Lindblom (the future, who could all go to AAA).

The Dodgers have plethora of arms.  Who will win the arms race?

It should prove to be interesting.

DODGERS TALK:

• According to Steve Dilbeck of THE LA TIMES, the Dodgers are steamed about Ronald Beliasrio.  Sometimes things like this end badly for a player:

“I think it’s a problem now.  The pitchers need all this time. Of course, he did play winter ball. But I can’t really tell you [his condition]  until I see him.”

• Dylan Hernandez and Bill Shaikin report that Garrett Anderson is a Dodger.  This should prove to be interesting as Mientkiewicz, Giles and Anderson compete for one spot.
• Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus writes on ESPN/LA’s Pay Blog that Clayton Kershaw’s new Slider Makes Him a Cy Young Candidate (Thanks to Jon Weisman)
•  Tony Jacksonreports that Ned Colletti is not happy with Belisario either.  I am beginning to think the guy is a knucklehead!  Tony also reported this:

 The situation ultimately could cost Belisario a considerable amount of money, as well. He has only one year of big-league service time, meaning he will have a split contract with a major-league salary of no more than about $415,000 this season, and he won’t even get that much if he is in the minors.There also is a provision, known as Regulation 6, in the current Basic Agreement between owners and the players’ union that would allow the Dodgers to suspend Belisario without pay and require him to stay behind in extended spring training when the team breaks camp if he doesn’t report at least 33 days before the start of the season.The Dodgers’ season opener is April 5 at Pittsburgh, meaning Belisario already has missed that deadline and the Dodgers already have that option.”In the event of the failure of the Player to report for practice or to participate in the exhibition games, as required or provided for,” the regulation reads, “he shall be required to get into playing condition to the satisfaction of the Club’s team manager, and at the Player’s own expense, before his salary shall commence.”The phrase “to the satisfaction of the Club’s team manager” means the length of such a suspension would be entirely at the Dodgers’ discretion.

… because my old buddy, Tony Jackson hit this one out of the park:  Billingsley Learning To Let Go. Whatever needs to be said about Chad has now been said by Tony, and it justneeds to play out.  In a nutshell, Tony summarizes Chad’s struggles like this:

“Billingsley’s biggest problem, the one that has plagued him at various times since he reached the majors in 2006 and the one that probably is the biggest reason he hasn’t fully morphed into the staff ace he was projected to be, is that he appears to have trouble letting go of his mistakes.

“There were times in the middle of a game — and it might not have just been when a guy drove in a run, but maybe it was a guy leading off an inning with a double, something like that — where I would think maybe I should have used a different pitch selection,” Billingsley said. “Then maybe you try to overthrow or try to do too much. That’s the mental part of it. But the only way to get better is by doing it, by being out there on the mound. You can’t simulate it in the bullpen or by throwing batting practice. You have to be out there facing hitters in a game situation.

“You can’t dwell on it. Sometimes, you throw your best pitch and a guy gets a hit and drives in a run. You can’t do anything about that now. You just have to bear down and go after the next guy.”

Read the article and you will see  that Chad is working on his problem.  Tony sums it up like this:

“Billingsley grasps these lessons easily enough. But Dodgers officials won’t have their questions answered for a few more weeks, when they get the chance to see whether he can actually put those lessons into practice in the heat of a major league game.

If he can do that, he has the potential to be a true, front-of-the-rotation ace.”

Just because C-Bil had a bad 2nd half of last season doesn’t mean he’ll pitch the same way in 2010, anymore than the fact that Rafael Furcal having a good conclusion to his season means that he’ll do well in 2010 – you have to look at both players “body of work” and their body of work suggests that they are capable of a very good 2010.  How much would that mean to the team?  Raffy and Chad returning to All-Star Status?  Think about it.  Will it happen?  Don’t know!  Are they capable – YES, they are!

Never mention Chad again until the All-Star Break!  Tony said it all!

Dodger Notes:

• Don’t put much stock into Charlie Haegar’s bad outing – I wouldn’t expect that Knuckleball to dance for a couple of weeks!
• MSTI thinks James Loney will have a big year.  So Do I!  It’s his time.
• It turns out that the most important pitcher in camp might be Sandy Koufax who is working with all the Dodger pitchers for the week.  How huge could this be?

I don’t think most of you realize how good this version of the Dodgers can be.  I am sure that the National Media, including Plaschke and Simers don’t.  I do think that Jackson and Weisman do.   We may be in for the ride of our lives.

After looking at the #5 Starter competition, I have concluded that anything is possible.  I believe that the favorites to win that position are as follows (in the order I think it most likely along with questions):

1. Eric Stults (his time?)
2. Charlie Haegar (was last year a fluke or a peek?)
3. James McDonald (he’s determined to win the spot, but can he?)
4. Jeff Weaver (can he return to being a solid-pitchers every 5 days?)
5. Scott Elbert (is his arm ready for this?)
6. Carlos Monasterios (can he jump that far?)

These six pitchers all have a shot and deserve consideration.  One will step-up.  Maybe two or three?   I can see only three of those pitchers making the team, maybe just two.  There will be some tough battles this Spring.  What do you think?

What other teams in the NL do you think will be in the playoffs?  I have already stated that I think the Rockies will not make the playoffs and I am now picking the Cardinals to be the best team in the league (behind the Dodgers, of course).  I hate to say it, but Brad Penny could win 20 under Dave Duncan (he has always had million-dollar talent to go with a 10 cent brain), and Kyle Lohse could also win 15-16 games.  If Wainright and Carpenter stay healthy, this could be an excellent rotation.  Dave Duncan is the master!

Around the WEB:

• Steve Dilbeck writes about Chad Billingsley’s Mental Toughness (or lack thereof)
• Ken Gurnick says that Cory Wade is in great shape and eager to re-gain his spot in the pen.  I found this part especially interesting:

“Wade brushed off the suggestion that middle relievers get abused and are particularly vulnerable to injuries of overuse.

“It really is an honor when a Hall of Fame manager has confidence to give the ball to a rookie,” he said. “It’s my own fault I ended up breaking down. I wasn’t as strong as I should have been. I wasn’t really prepared for the role.

“I did what I could do. As a first-year guy, you think you can handle it. I’d be happy with the role again. I’d do anything to help the club win. Last year was a big-time learning experience for me.”‘

• About a week ago, I wrote that I had heard James Loney had been working out and bulking up.  It turns out I was partially right.  Dylan Hernandez confirms that he is slimmer and stronger.  That bodes well for the Dodgers.
• It seems to me that the Dodger Kids are becoming grown men and they are determined to make their mark.  They are more mentally tough and they are prepared and planning for big years.
• Again, I don’t think that Russ Martin will continue his decline.  His character won’t allow it, and he’s not old.  Look for a big rebound.
• As much as it worries me, Rafael Furcal is a big key to 2010.  If he stays healthy and can put up good on-base numbers, the offense should be very good.  It all starts at the top.  It will be interesting who bats #2.  I vote for Kemp, due to his speed.
• If it comes down to Jeff Weaver or Charlie Haeger for the “swingman” role.  I’d keep Haegar – he’s much younger with a bigger upside.  Of course, theres’a  lot of time between now and then.  Too many scenarios to play out.
• Tony Jackson talks about Belli’s Belly and other issues at 2B.
• Jon Weisman thinks Xavier Paul could make the team if Giles and Mientkiewicz health issues keep up (and both have major issues)
• Jon Weisman opines what could happen with Ronald Belisario.
• MSTI discusses that Having a Good Team With No Ace is Better Than The Inverse- Good read
• Memories of Kevin Malone (hereafter “MKM”) profiles Chris Withrow.

Our 2010 Starting Rotation

Well, if you ask me… and you didn’t (but I’m going to tell you anyway), it’s Young Clayton.  Maybe it’s a rush job, but maybe it’s not.  Maybe he’s ready.  Not “maybe” – he ISready!   I think it’s likely that Clayton Kershaw will be even better this year.  His ERA might not reflect that, but he will pitch deeper into games and flirt with 20 wins this year.  After Clayton, will come Chad Billingsley, followedby Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, with the 5th Spot being Eric Stults to lose.

Unless Charlie Haeger is a disaster during the spring, he will battle Jeff Weaver for the “swingman” spot in the pen.  The rest of the bullpen is less clear.  We do know that Jon Broxton, George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso, Hong chih Kuo and James McDonald will probably all make the team barring injury.  I just can’t see Weaver and Haeger both making the team, as they are competing for the same position, but if it comes down to it, they will keep Charlie and send Jeff to AAA (at least for a few weeks under the guise of building arm strength).

That leaves a lot of pitchers up for grabs, including Ronnie Belisario, whom Joe Torre may want to demote for a while after his Visa problems two years in a row.   We also have Cory Wade, who could flat-out make the team out of Spring training, and Carlos Monasterios (who could be bought or have another player sent to his former team, and demoted).  Lindblom, Zerpa, Miller, Towers and Elbert all seem slated for AAA.

While it would be a “feel good” story and great if it happened, the odds are against Eric Gagne making the team.  Would he accept an assignment to AAA?  Maybe for a few weeks, but hey, this is Spring – anything can happen.

Let’s not forget, however, that there is always a pitching surprise.  Belisario was the big one last year.  Who will it be this year?

Rants & Raves

• I keep thinking about it and I can’t see Brian Giles or Doug Mientkiewicz making the team, especially if Xavier Paul has a rousing Spring
• Ronnie Belliard has to weigh below 210 pounds tomorrow – if he doesn’t, is he off the team.  At any rate, I don’t see him as a starter.  He’s a role-player (like last year).
• Russ Martin will be the All-Star Catcher in the NL this year – Write that down!
• Oh, and in case you don’t understand – I still say Clayton Kershaw will be our Opening Day Starter.

… nor am I a hater.  I see the good he has done as the owner of the Dodgers.  I see the mistakes he has made as well.  However, he seems to have learned each time he makes a mistake.   Overall, the Dodgers are in much better shape than when he took over.  His lifestyle seems excessive – in my business, I work with the rich and famous and don’t really care about all their “stuff.”  My “stuff” is fine.  If I had their money, I wouldn’t live the way they live… but that’s just me.  If they want to live excessively (my opinion) that’s their gig. 

However, I am sick of this Dodger Divorce.  It’s a soap opera and I will no longer talk about it until the case is decided.  I’ll take it a step further – I’ll delete any posts or comments on this issue.  I don’t want to hear about it.  It’s something I don’t care about.  I don’t care about “what if.”  I care about “what is.”  The Dodgers IS.

That’s what I want to focus on:  The Dodgers.  The baseball part of the business.  The players.  The coaches.  The minor leagues.  That’s all.  If I can’t do that, I’ll shut this blog down.

This is a Dodger blog – not a McCourt blog.  I don’t want it.  I won’t have it and I’m done with it.  “Frank, I don’t live for you, and hopefully you get that.”

This blog is about Matt Kemp, Jon Broxton, Eric Gagne, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Clayton Kershaw, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin and all the rest of the boys.

I am not against Frank McCourt… nor am I for him.

Whatever happens, happens – the Dodgers will thrive, or survive under Frank McCourt.

This is a Dodgers Zone!

Nothing else!

It turns out that Ronnie Belisario and I have a lot in common – No I don’t have a DUI, but we both have Visa problems that prevented us from reporting yesterday.  He hasn’t been able to obtain his, and I have to work to pay mine off!  So there you go.  Joe Torre isn’t mad at me , but he is mad at Ronnie! 

Spring is that time of year when the “little boy” in us all dreams big dreams: 

• Manny will have an MVP season
• Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier will combine to hit 80 HR and drive in 240
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw will be 1,2 or 2,1 in CY Young voting
• Russell Martin and Rafael Furcal will win Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves
• Eric Gagne will regain his form to become “Game Over” Gagne
• From James McDonald, Eric Stults and Charlie Haeger will emerge a #5 starter who goes 200 innings
• BelliCarroWitt will combine to hit over .300 at 2B
• Casey Blake didn’t have his career year last year – he will have it in 2010 – with a beard, no less

Now, most of those dreams will not happen, but some will and it’s going to be fun to see which ones play out.

Spring Notes:

• The Dodgers and Torre are working on an extension of one more year.
• Russell Martin allegedly looks like a fullback and has muscled up this year.  The last two years, he worked on flexibility and that simply didn’t work.  He’s allegedly about 20+ pounds heavier.
• To those of you who expect Casey Blake to have a bad year at 37, just look back at Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt and Pete Rose at 37.  If a guy takes care of himself, there no reason he can’t be at his peak then and I think that Casey Blake, while not in the category of the three above-mentioned 3B, is a candidate to do as good, probably better than last year.
• Rumor has it that James Loney may have “bulked up” over the winter.  That would make some of those fly balls, “Big Flies.”

Must Reading:

• Tony Jackson on Eric Gagne
• Dylan Hernandez on Chad Billingsley
• TJ Simers with a “Feel Good” Article on “Game Over”

Pitchers and Catchers report on February 2o, 2010 and the first workout is February 21, 2010, so I am going to take a few days off.  I’ll be back on the 20th or 21st. 

I’ll leave you with a few things to cuss and discuss:

• Is it possible that the Combination of Reed Johnson and Brian Giles will be even better than Juan Pierre last year?  Think about that one really hard.
• Why can’t a guy who hit over .300 for the first two months of 2008 and is in his 6th professional season make the transition to everyday 2B?  Think about this:  9 trips!  That has to have an effect, but also serves to help you grow up real quick.  Is it possible we will see the 2008 April and May Blake DeWitt all year?
• Jamey Carroll can play every infield position and every outfield position (he hasn’t played SS for a couple of years, but he can in an emergency) and hits nearly .350 as a pinch hiiter.  Do you think he might have some value? 
• Could this be THE year Kuroda is injury-free (remember, it’s not his arm that has been the problem)?
• Does anyone in their right mind think that sometime  between September 2008 and August 2009, Manny Ramirez just “lost it?’   OR, is it possible you could see him be a beast in the least year of his contract?
• What are the chances in July or August that a team who (1) loses a closer to injury, or (2)  has a closer who is not getting the job done, elects to trade for Ronnie Belisario and/or George Sherrill?
• The Dodgers will have a shuttle to and from Albaquacky (I can’t spell Albuquerque) all year -especially for the pitching staff.  At any given time, we could have Troncoso,  Wade, Schlichting, Leach, Lindblom, Miller and Felix there at any given minute.  Expect to see a lot of movement to and from there.
• DARKHORSE:  Ivan DeJesus, Jr. – Could he “sieze the day at 2B?s  Brian Barton (who?) – You never know!!!
• Charles Haeger is out of options and so is Eric Stults.  If, for no other reason than that, they will be given a shot at being the #5.   Because of that, I think Scott Elbert starts the year at AAA.  James McDonald might end up back in AAA so that he can start as well, but I think he’ll play out better as a reliever.  We’ll see.
• Could it be that the Dodgers won’t have a  true SS as a backup this year?  Carroll could well be the emergency SS and Hu and Green would only be a cab ride away. 
• There’s a real chance Amezaga won’t play this year.
• I think the Dodgers will go with 11 pitchers in April.
• Belliard is not a lock to make the team!

This could be your Opening Day Lineup & Roster:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Ethier  RF
5. Manny  LF
6. Loney  1B
7. Blake  3B
8. DeWitt  2B
9. Billingsley  P

Reserves:

1. Carroll
2. Belliard or Doug M ( I can’t spell Mientkiewicz)
3. Giles
4. Johnson
5. Ausmus

Pitchers:

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Haeger
6. Stults
7. Kuo
8. Sherrill
9. Belisario
10. Troncoso
11. Broxton

I’ll be in Carmelback from March 20-27, 2010.  See you there.

Carry on!

It pains me a great deal when fans berate players - ”He’s a bum.”  “He’s worthless.”  “He can’t play.”  

What do we know?  As it turns out, not much.   I will say that anyone who plays at the major league level is so far advanced over anyone else that it’s like comparing my writing ability to Jon Weismans’.  The worst guy in the majors is so much better than any of us ever were.  Think about that for a minute.

When a hitter is in a slump or pitcher just can’t find the strike zone, we fans only look at the results, but fail to consider the underlying circumstances (if they can even be known).  For example, Eric Stults lost his mother to cancer.  In most cases, this is not an “overnight” thing, but something that can consume several years.  By all accounts, Eric was close to his mother, so when he knew she was sick (and maybe no one else knew) how did that affect his ability to pitch?  “He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

What were the dynamics surrounding Manny Ramirez when he was suspended and after his suspension?   He’s a  proud person who was humiliated.  I believe that his problems last year were more “emotional” than physical.   I don’t condone what he did (the steroids), but part of me feels sorry for him because he’s never had to deal with anything like this, and as an elite athlete, he’s ill-equipped to handle it.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

James McDonald seems to get that “deer-in-the-headlights” look when he suddenly walks batters with two outs.  He’s young, inexperienced, and who knows what is going on in his life?  Not me.  Not most reporters!  But, boy-oh-boy, he can pitch when he throws strikes!  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

What about Chad Billingsley?  He’s newly married (I won’t even go there) and he had a broken leg and he’s very young. I mean, there are so many possible distractions and issues in his life that I could write a book about it.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

Rafael Furcal had back surgery before last season and was never the same in 2009.  He was friends with Andruw Jones (who had to leave due to illness – the Dodgers were sick of him)and who knows what else was happening in his life, in addition to rehabbing his back.  It takes time to come back all the way from that – even when you think you are OK, you aren’t… mentally!  In addition, Raffy has his best years in “even years” – look it up – that bodes well for 2010.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

When I think about what goes on in my life – my kids, my wife, my business, my health, my parents and in-laws (actually, I have no parents and in-laws anymore as they have all passed, so maybe that’s easier in some ways), but you get the point – we all have a lot of “stuff” in our lives.  So do ballplayers.  He’s a professional – he gets paid to produce.”   HE’S A HUMAN BEING!

All of this gives me pause, because the power of the human spirit is incredible!   I have hope (and tangible evidence from others) that Eric Stults, Manny Ramirez, James McDonald, Rafael Furcal and Chad Billingsley could actually harness their vast talent (initially or again) and put up some great numbers.  In fact, I will go on record that there will be no “middle ground” with Manny – he will be very good… or very bad!  I am betting on the VERY GOOD part, like .310/37/124.  That would play well in the middle of our lineup!

I name these five players, because I think they are in a unique position – they are all poised for breakout (or comback) years in 2010!  If that happens, LOOK OUT!  This could be a very SPECIAL season.

• The Orioles have signed Joe Guzman to a minor league deal.  Is he Jack Cust?  Maybe.  Maybe not!  Do you remember when…?
• Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin, Manny and Furcal should be better,  Blake should be the same.  DeWitt/Carroll/Belliard may be worse than 2B last year (maybe not).  How does that make us not as good as last year?  Is this the new math?
• Carlos Santana (who has been “annointed” the chosen one) has never played above AA.  Who knew?
• Steven Johnson (the pitcher in the Sherrill trade) was released and is now a Giant.  Steve, We’ll blast you if you come to the Ravine.
• The Cincinnati Reds are going to surprise you. 
• To those of you who think the Dodgers didn’t affer arbitration to Wolf and Hudson because they couldn’t afford it:  “GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF WHEREVER IT IS.”
• The Cubs will tank again and Sweet Lou will be given the pink slip by August.
• The Dodgers and the Cards will play in the NLCS.
• Roy Halladay will win 7 games this year.  Cliff Lee will win the AL Cy Young.
• Camelback will be a “hoot” this Spring.
• Who wants a LaDdodgerTalk polo and what size?
• Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson were 50-50 odds to accept arbitration.  I know these things!
• Raffy will have his best year ever in 2010, with only 16 stolen bases.
• Vicente Padilla will have more wins and a better ERA than Randy Wolf.
• The Rockies will win 82 games.
• Andre Ethier will win the NL MVP.
• Chad Billingsley will be the Chad we USED to know.
• Who ‘dat?  Colts ‘dat!  Yes they are!

Some people are saying that the Dodgers are a .500 team (when I say “some people” I don’t mean “informed baseball people”), which I think is just plain delusional.  I think sometimes Dodger fans fail to take into consideration that change is inevitable, and often, it is good.  Will everything be OK?  Seth Godin summed it up today by saying:

It’s natural to seek reassurance. Most of us want to believe that the choices we make will work out, that everything will be okay.

Artists and those that launch the untested, the new and the emotional (and I’d put marketers into all of these categories) wrestle with this need all the time. How can we proceed knowing that there’s a good chance that our actions will fail, that things might get worse, that everything won’t end up okay? In search of solace, we seek reassurance.

So people lie to us. So we lie to ourselves.

No, everything is not going to be okay. It never is. It isn’t okay now. Change, by definition, changes things. It makes some things better and some things worse. But everything is never okay.

Finding the bravery to shun faux reassurance is a critical step in producing important change. Once you free yourself from the need for perfect acceptance, it’s a lot easier to launch work that matters.

Will the Dodgers be OK?  We are so much in the middle of the Forest that we can’t see the trees, or is it we can’t see the Forest for the trees?  I will leaf that alone.  What I will say is that we often look at how a player performed last year and extrapolate that into the next.  What we fail to factor in is that we have a very young team and these guys often get better by leaps and bounds.  In some cases you can count on it.  I think we forget how far some of our young player have come, how much they have matured and how they will almost certainly continue down that same path. 

In the middle of the long, cold winter, I usually pick-up a copy of Lindy’s Fantasy Baseball(I never play it myself), because over the years, I have found that their takes are pretty close to the reality.  I don’t know for sure, but I think that they use a variety of statistical analysis as well as scouting resources to reach their conclusions.  At any rate, I have read them for many years and their accuracy rate is exceptional when predicting what players might do.  I thought I’d share a few of their predictions:

• Russell Martin is the 7th Highest Ranked Catcher in Baseball behind Soto, Posada, Wieters, McCann, Martinez and Mauer – no surprise there. He is rated ahead of Suzuki, Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, Yadier Molina,  Chris Iannetta and Mike Napoli.  I caught a lot of heat from some of you for ranking him that high, but you can see I’m not the only one!   (Projection:  .269/9 HR/58 RBI/470 AB)  Comments:  “He inexplicably morphed into Jason  Kendall with slightly more pop, slipping even in stolen bases, a category he once dominated.  He’ll either return to fantasy relevance or fade into oblivion this season.”
• James Loneyis the 15th Highest Rated First Baseman is Baseball ranked ahead of Chris Davis, Paul Konerko, Adam LaRoche, Jorge Cantu, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Casey Kotchman and Aubrey Huff (Projection:  .281/18 HR/30 DBL/92 RBI) Comments:  “There’s a lack of sizzle and a whole lot of Mark Grace going on here.  A more critical peek at his numbers reveals Loney is becoming more patient (70 walks last season), suggesting a brighter future.  He’s due for a spike … don’t bet on an explosion.”
• Of course, the Dodgers don’t have anyone rated at 2B, but I do hope they give Blake DeWitt the opportunity.  If he and Carroll can’t cut it, then we can make a deal.  Second-basemen are a dime a dozen and that All-Star you all wanted back (Orlando Hudson) is only the 16th rated at his position (and he wants $9 mil a year?  HA!).
• Casey Blake is ranked #17 at 3B, right ahead of Casey McGhee, Andy LaRoche, Garrett Atkins, Jhonny Peralta, Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigington and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  (Projection:  .276/18 HR/ 76 RBI).  The words they use as “consistent” and “solid.”  Certainly, he ’s no star, but we could do worse.  
• Raffy Furcal is ranked the #14 SS and Lindys calls him “No longer an elite fantasy option, as injuries have robbed him of his speed and power.”  (Projection: .283/10 HR/51 RBI/15 SB)  If he can put up those numbers with a .360 OB%, we will be fine. “Hurry up Dee Gordon!”
• Ryan Braun is rated the #1 outfielder, but #2 is none other than our Matt Kemp (Projection: .302/35 DBL/8 TRIP/31 HR/105 RBI/38 SB).  Those are “elite” numbers.  Andre Ethier is rated #16 (Projection: .293/36 DBL/30 HR/102 RBI) and Manny Ramirez is #18 (Projection: .302/26 HR/86 RBI).  They say that they still believe “Ethier will win a batting title” and that “Manny still has an elite batting eye and isn’t done being relevant in our game.”  If that prediction holds up for our outfielders, the Dodgers should be very good offensively.  In fact, that should be baseballs best offensive outfield.
• When it comes to pitching, Lindys has Clayton Kershaw at #16, just ahead of Cliff Lee!  Chris Carpenter was #15.  Other pitchers ranked behind Kershaw are:  Vazquez, Cain, Beckett, Jimenez, Webb, Peavy, Shields and Lackey who was rated #25, just ahead of Chad Billingsley at #26.  (Projections:  Kershaw- 16-6/2.88 ERA /198 IP/156 H/210 K/1.24 WHIP; Billingsley – 14-11/3.72 ERA/202 IP/180 H/188 K/1.29 WHIP).  Here’s what they say about Clayton:  “He’s a still a work in progress, last summer adding a slider to compliment his mid-90’s fastball and all-world curveball.  Check out Fangraphs.com for more on his slider and put a check next to his name on your cheatsheet.  He’s going to be unstoppable in the very near future.”  Yeah, like maybe in 2010?  Billingsley was rated ahead of the likes of Baker, Garza, Rodriguerz, Lilly, Weaver, Dempster, Nolasco, Anderson, Oswalt, Burnett, Bucholz, Jurrjens, Danks, Jackson and Harden.  They regards the 2nd half of 2009 as a “hiccup.”  Hiroki Kuroda was ranked #49, ahead of Hudson, Kazmir, Maine, Sherzer, Saunders, Pineiro, Zambrano and Randy Wolf (who was #65, and they predict 10 wins with an ERA over 4.00 for him).  They project Kuroda at 11-8 with a 3.63 ERA/182 IP and ad WHIP of 1.20.  Of Kuroda they said “his underlying numbers are solid and the injuries were not arm-related.“  Vicente Padilla weighed in at #96 (not bad for a #4), just behind Jon Garland at #95.  They project him at 12-10 with a 4.33 ERA and 169 IP with a 1.43 WHIP.
• Which brings us to Jon Broxton, ranked #5 as a closer.  Here’s the crux of what they say about him (sounds like what I say):  “Perhaps a visit with a sports psychologist is in order…”  ‘Nuff said!  George Sherrill is rated #40 and Lindys thinks he could close more on the road, especially against LH’ers (where Brox has his issues).

So, while Lindy’s is not Bill James or Fangraphs, it’s still very useful, and I have found that their projections are quite accurate.  I think a lot of Dodger fans depreciate the value of a lot of our young players, as well as our role-players.  The 2010 Version of the LA Dodgers is destined to be VERY, VERY GOOD!  Now, depending upon what happens with the divorce, we could be buyers in August.  Get ready for a great season!  I see at leat 93 wins!

DODGER NEWS:

• Jon Weisman has an excellent post on the Dodgers lack of resources at this juncture.
• The Phillies have $130 million committed to 14 players in 2011, which means they may not be abale to sign Jason Werth.  Hummmm…
• The Dodgers could sign Noah Lowery as soon as NOW!

I know that a lot is riding on the young arms of Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw this season.  How well the Dodgers do will certainly be determined in part, by how well the two young Aces perform.  I also believe that a BIG KEY TO 2010 is how well Russell Martin plays.

Some people think he should be rested more or that he should play 3B on occasion.   Russ Martin has been a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glover. 

In 2010, he needs to be both.

Where Martin plays and how much he plays depends upon how well he hits.  I would say that this is his “make-or-break” year with the Dodgers.  I would not be surprised if he hit .297 with a .401 OB%, nor would I be surprised if he hit .251 with a .348 OB%. 

Is he the second best catcher in baseball, or is he second-string?

Will the real Russ Martin please step up?

Los Angeles – In what has to be somewhat of a surprise, the Dodgers made two major announcements today.  The first announcement has to do with the divorce proceedings of Frank and Jamie McCourt who agreed to a continuance of their May hearing:

The McCourt’s announced that they have resolved their personal issues and that Jamie will keep all personal property, vehicles, art and personal items.  She also agreed to a $100,000,000.00 payment (payable over 5 years at 6% interest) from Frank McCourt, and assumes her role as CEO of the Dodgers Dream Foundation which will be funded by a $8 million a year grant from the Dodgers.  In return, Frank McCourt gets sole ownership of the Dodgers and has agreed to hire all their sons as club executives. 

Next, Ned Colletti took the dais and said that this is a big burden off the Dodgers and made the following announcement:  “The Dodgers have just completed a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Mariners, who have fallen 26 games below .500. whereby  Chris Withrow, Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert, Casey Blake and  James McDonald have been traded to the Blue Jays for Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Felix Hernandez.  Hernandez has agreed to to a six-year/$125 million deal and Lee has agreed to a 4 year/$90 mil deal.  Our lineup will look like this right now:

1. Figgins  3B
2. Furcal SS
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Martin  C
7. Loney  1B
8. DeWitt 2B

Our Rotation now looks like this as we ready for the stretch run:

Hernandez, Lee, Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda.

Colletti continued:  “With the expiring contracts of Ramirez and Kuroda, we we able to take on more payroll since the ownership issue was resolved and our lenders opened their pockets again.  If we had made all the dope-fiend moves suggested on LaDodgerTalk.com, we would have never had the flexibility to pull this off.  Sure, we gave up a lot, but we are going to win this thing!   I’m glad I listened to Mark Timmons….”

I made my plans and got my tickets yesterday for Camelback Ranch.  I will be there on March 20th through March 27th.  My wife and son will be flying in on the 25th to see the last 3 games with me.  I haven’t gotten the away game tickets, but I’ll work on that next week.  It’s going to be a great Spring Training.   Like Roger mentioned last week, there seems to be gloom and doom by lots of commenters on this board, but that is not a concept shared by most of the national media (which worries me). 

Ride Manny Ride

There is a Mini-Camp in late January at Camelback and I was going to have Rory (Badger) cover it, but after talking with Josh Rawitch, it looks like there will be no media.  Maybe Badger can rent a helicoptor and fly around taking pictures for us. 

Voldomer will be there from March 8-13 and has said that he will provide updates and photos as well.  Badger lives near there, so hopefully he can do the same.

I plan to have LA LodgerTalk T-Shirts available by the End of January – stay tuned, because they will be VERY COOL!   At a very good price I might add….

Some fans have asked which young players have the best chance of making the team.  Here’s my list (in no particular order):

• Josh Lindblom (middle relief)
• Xavier Paul  (4th OF) – This guy has a bat with a lot of pop (great “gap” power) and the best arm in the organization. 
• Carlos Monasterios  (5th Starter) – He has looked good in the Winter League
• Armando Zerpa (middle relief) – Just because he’s LH and they have to keep him or lose him.
• Brent Leach (middle relief) – We have already seen that he has good stuff… and he’s LH
• Travis Schlichting (middle relief) – See Brent Leach, but he’s not LH

Jon Link, Chin-lung Hu, Scott Elbert (who may not be rookies), Jason Repko and AJ Ellis also have a crack at making the team.

Several sources have reported that Jason Repko signed a $500,000.00 deal with the Dodgers to avaoid arbitration.   Just a few weeks ago, most bloggers were saying that he would be “non-tendered.” 

Below is the Spring Training Schedule

Last off-season, I predicted that it would not be Manny who made the team better, but rather “the kids.” 

Little did I know what would happen to Manny and how he would later struggle.  If the Manny Ramirez of 2008 had played in 2009, the Dodgers might still be shaking the confetti out of their shoes, because the kids made huge strides. 

Well, some did (Kershaw, Kemp, Ethier), some stayed the same (Loney, Broxton) and some regressed (Martin and Billingsley).  I am here to once again submit that Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson would not make us World Series Champs in 2010, but again, it on the kids – Kemp and Loney and Kershaw have to keep marching toward greatness.  Billingsley and Martin have to return to form and Broxton and Loney need to crank it up another notch. 

I believe we have at least four good starting pitchers on our team, but what might win it for us is a late spring or trade deadline deal.  Come July, we may have to decide if we want to trade Chris Withrow, Ivan DeJesus, Jr.  and Andrew Lambo for someones Ace!  Of course, that depends upon a lot of factors, including how those players are doing, but we have the horses to do a deal. 

The Dodgers didn’t want to pay Randy Wolf, who is a guy who averages 148 IP  a year and has a career 4.13 ERA, a long-term deal and they didn’t want to get stuck paying him even $9 mil a year.  There were time last year when Randy Wolf was our best pitcher, but in 2010, he could just as easily be our #5 or worse yet, injured!  If Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda and Haeger can pitch 800 innings, Randy Wolf will be a distant memory.

The Mets who are intent on spending money, recently had their GM recently say that their starting rotation would be Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and Jonathon Niese.  Santana has arm issues and the rest hardly strike fear into anyone’s hearts.  I think WE can do better, by standing pat for the time being.  Dodger fans are crying “Wolf” but come July, they may find they have been out-foxed!  Sometimes the best moves you make are the ones you don’t. 

MORE NEWS:

Interesting List of Top Dodger Prospects by John Sickels.  Here’s a quote from the post:

The Dodgers are strong on the pitching side: Martin and Miller could both be B+ guys a year from now, maybe even an A- if their command really sharpens up. Withrow could rank as the number one prospect ahead of Dee Gordon if you prefer pitching to hitting. His ceiling is terrific, although I’d like to see his walk rate come down. He has Homer Bailey-like risk if they rush him too fast. Elbert’s stuff is right up there with the other pitchers, but there are enough chinks in his armor (command, health history) to keep his grade slightly lower in my mind. I’m probably higher on Gould than some folks, but I see him in the same mold as the others if he develops properly. Other live arms such as Jansen, Eovaldi, Webster, and Wallach all have significant potential but enough doubts or lack of data right now to keep their ratings in the C+ range.

The hitters are led by the electric Dee Gordon, who will need some time to put his game together but has big upside. Possible comp: Rafael Furcal, circa 2000-2006. DeJesus doesn’t have the same ceiling but still has a chance to be a very useful player if his leg is OK. I haven’t given up on Lambo yet, not at age 21.

The hitting in beyond that is thin: there is a mixture of tools guys and polish guys, but they all have questionmarks of one sort of another. Adding some additional impact hitting depth for the system seems like a good idea; we’ll have to see if they address that in the 2010 draft.

Trades and graduations have thinned the system out, but overall I think Logan White and his staff do a fine job and the potential for a quick recharge seems good to me.

Los Angeles, CA- Going into the 2010 season, who knew that Clayton Kershaw would have his breakout season in 2010?  The unassuming, mild-mannered Texas kid is a solid condidate for the Cy Young Award with his 21-8 record and 3.09 ERA.  Chad Billingsley figures to get a few votes along with Jon Broxton.  Billingsley with his 18-12 record and 3.34 ERA rebounded nicely from an up and down 2009.  His 234 Innings Pitched led the Dodgers.   Jon Broxton was lights-out all season after mastering the change-up, and had 57 saves to go with his 1.97 ERA.   Clayton Kershaw was the leader of a Dodgers staff which had 4 starters with 10 or more wins:  Kershaw with 21, Billingsley with 18, Kuroda with 15 and Haeger with 12.  Scott Elbert finished with 9 wins. 

As a side note, James McDonald, Josh Lindblom, Hong-chih Kuo and Ronnald Belisario joined Jon Broxton as the only bullpen history with an ERA below 2.00.

… and then I woke up!

Over the past several weeks, I have seen the McCourt Saga gather momentum, like a rock rolling down a hill.  While the divorce is nasty and ugly, a lot of mis-information exists.  It starts with “McCourt might have to sell the team” (a possibility) to “McCourt has to sell the team” to “we want a new owner” to “McCourt won’t spend the money for young players” to “the young players will leave” to “McCourt will sell them off” to “Logan White and the coaches will leave” to “no player will want to play for the Dodgers.”  These are the ramblings of an overactive imagination.  There are several facts of which we can be sure:

1. The Courts are divorcing;
2. A hearing is scheduled for May to determine the ownership of the team – it is likely that it will not be decided until June or even later, depending upon many unknown factors;
3. The Dodgers have been cash strapped as they have been leveraged since McCourt bought the team;
4. This makes the Dodgers even more strapped for cash;
5. The payroll probably CANNOT go much above $100,000,000; and
6. At some point the Dodgers will solely be the property of Frank McCourt or they will be ruled as community property of the divorce.

That’s ALL we know.  You can think and imagine and conjecture, but that is all we KNOW!   You can assume the worst, if you are inclined to make yourself miserable, or you can face reality, which is listed above.  Every legal case is different.  Certain precedents may or may not apply in this case, as we do not have all the facts.  A $100 million payroll is not what any of us expect, but in any business,  certain years bring differing budget needs.  The Dodgers will still be in the TOP Thirty Percent in Baseball Payroll.  They are not the Padres.  Now, I would be unhappy if this were to go on forever, but all indications are that we can compete with a $100 million payroll THIS year. 

Also think about this:  The Boston RedSox had a payroll of $122.6 mil last year, while the Dodgers payroll was $109.1 mil.  So, the RedSox had $13.1 mil MORE payroll than the Dodgers, yet their income was about $30 mil more than the Dodgers!  When you consider that, the Dodgers payroll doesn’t look so bad.  Why doesn’t anyone bash John Henry for not spending more money?  If you put things into perspective,  it looks a lot different.  The sky is not falling and the end is not near!

Come June or July, if ownership of the Dodgers stays with Frank McCourt, then within a year or so, the payroll will creep back up and climb when a new cable deal is implemented.  If ownership is determined to be community property, then in all likelihood, the Dodgers will have to be sold.  Frank  McCourt  is reported to be working on developing land around Chavez Ravine, and I would guess he is also working on “Stadium Naming Rights.“  What role that will play in the divorce remains to be seen.  I have NO OPINION as to what the Court will do.  One can NEVER predict the outcome without all the facts and both sides are sandbagging and stalling discovery.  It is possible that this trial will not be held until after the season. 

You should also know this:  If the team is adjudicated to be “joint property” and has to be sold, it will be worth much more if it is a viable concern and making money with good revenue streams.  Selling players and doing what many of you predict will not happen because both Frank and Jamie would end up with much less money and both are too greedy to do that.  If ownership of the team is awarded to both parties, then the odds are it will be sold – hopefully to someone with deeper pockets who does not have to pay for debt service out of operating income.  Even at that, it is not inevitable that the team will be sold – however I would expect that as long as the front office remains a strength (and it is), the Dodgers will do just fine.

Our prospects are still bright and we have a plethora of good young arms, led by Billingsley and Kershaw.  Not all will make it, but we only need a few to make it, and within this group are some outstanding prospects:

• Haegar
• Troncoso
• Elbert
• McDonald
• Martin
• Eovaldi
• Miller
• Withrow
• Lindblom
• Webster
• Guerra
• Redding
• Jansen
• Schlichting
• Leach

As many as eight on that above list could see time with the big club this year.  A real dark-horse who could grab a spot in the rotation is Josh Lindblom.  He will be 23 years-old next season, and while he has little starting experience, his 6′ 5″ – 240 lb. frame is what you would pick to be an ideal starter.    I think he would be “lights-out” in the pen, but he will be given an opportunity to start, along with Haegar, Elbert and possibly Troncoso.

Cheer up!  We are not rooting for the Padres!

I am sick of talking about the divorce proceedings, so you won’t find much about it here – you know where to look.  However, I do want to address the Free Pass Baseball Fans are giving Arte Moreno while castigating Frank McCourt.   The Angels lost two of their most important free agents – Figgins and Lackey – both of whom they wanted back.  Vlad is likely to walk and the Angels payroll is reported to need to stay around $100,000,000 and yet Moreno is hailed as a genius and McCourt is a miserly idiot. 

Here’s the long and short of it – From day one some people have had a bad opinion about Frank, and anything done by him was proof that he was a horrible owner.  It is sort of like doing your taxes by filling in the bottom line first.  By all accounts, the Dodgers payroll will be $100 million this year.  So will the Angels.   We have youngsters who I believe will step up even more than last year.  Contrary to what you think, the Dodgers prospects are as bright as the Angels. .. probably brighter!  Are the Dodgers cash strapped?  Yes!  Are other teams?  Absolutely!

Frank McCourt isn’t the second coming, but he’s not what many of you make him out to be.  However, due to their opinion of McCourt, some pile on due to the divorce.  Manny Ramirez was not the key to the Dodgers last year.  It was the youngsters.   The Dodgers were forced into signing Manny by their fans last year.  It was $25 mil wasted!  If we would have saved that $25 mil, we might be sitting on Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay right about now.  It is what it is – we have Manny and we don’t have Lee or Halladay, but we have more young power arms than any team in baseball.  We have Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loneyand Russ Martin – 4 young players who figure to get a lot better (yeah, I think Martin WILL bounce back – he’s too good).  How that plays out remains to be seen, but I think you will be surprised.  I also think that Blake DeWitt will surprise us.   I also believe Clayton and Chad will pitch like Aces. 

We won 94 games last year in the regular season after many fans said the Dodgers would be a sub-.500 team without Manny!  Then you say “Yeah, they won’t 94 games BUT….”  No buts!  The Dodgers won 94 games and I expect at least the same next year.  Watch and learn!  Remember on thing:  Frank McCourt knows that he has to put a good product on the field or he will lose more money than he could ever save by not paying players.  He is painfully aware of that – so is Dennis Mannion and the rest of the operations people.  If you think the Dodgers will try and put a crappy product on the field, you are sadly mistaken.  I understand why the Dodgers didn’t sign Wolf or Hudson and why they didn’t offer them arbitration.  It wasn’t the bonuses they had to pay to draft picks – it was because they were afraid the players would accept arbitration.  You may think otherwise, and you are free to do that, but I am one who thinks there was a good chance one or both players would have accepted.  Why?  It’s about the money!  I formed that opinion by talking to a lot of people close to the team, and it’s just my opinion.

You will see the Dodgers sign some players, but if you all hadn’t cried for Manny last year, we’d have our Ace!  Crying is not becoming to Dodger fans!   It’s downright nauseating to me.

UPDATE:

I researched Forbes rankings of the MLB teams and these are their numbers.

You can see that the Dodgers were operating with almost $20 mil negative operating income.  Frank McCourt paid more than $200 million MORE for the Dodgers than Moreno paid for the Angels, and yet the Dodgers are arguably better than the Angels under Franks watch.  Moreno has more than doubled the valve of the Angels, while McCourt has not quite doubled the value of the Dodgers.  It is easier to double a business the lower the initial income.  Their operating incomes are both near 3%, but McCourt has put tens of millions more into the stadium and spring training facilities than Moreno.