Most of what follows come from Ken Gurnick of Dodgers .com:

• A day after losing catcher Russell Martin for four to six weeks with a pulled groin muscle, the Dodgers saw third baseman Casey Blake come out of Monday’s exhibition game against the Giants with a strained rib-cage muscle.
• Joe Torre said this about Josh Lindblom:  ”Am I allowed to say it with my general manager around”  He’s pretty simple to watch. His ball explodes at the end with something on it.“  In my opinion, Lindblom has a great shot at making the team.
• In the regular game against the Giants, the Dodgers received two solid innings from Josh Towers; an impressive inning from Jon Link, who came over from the White Sox in the Juan Pierre trade; and two scoreless innings from Rule 5 Draft pick Carlos Monasterios.
• General manager Ned Colletti said there was no news regarding the status of reliever Ronald Belisario, who is still stuck in Venezuela with visa problems complicated by a driving under the influence arrest last summer. Colletti said if Belisario isn’t ready to start the season, he would be placed on the restricted list.
• Another quote from Torre:  ”Right now, Blake [DeWitt] is swinging as well as anybody.  I believe he’ll hit in the big leagues consistently, not .320, but probably .280 plus do some damage.”  Joe stole that line from me!

The rest is from me:

• Blake DeWitt is now hitting .800 (he’ll keep that up) in his bid to make the team as the everyday 2B.Ned Wants it, Joe Wants it and it looks like Blake Wants it.
• Jamey Carroll haters will enjoy a heaping helping of crow!  This guy will mean a lot to us.
• Nick Green is ahead of schedule.  He doesn’t have the stats, but this guy is also a ballplayer.  Probably no room, but….

Just a laundry list of a few things I expect to see this year:

• A healthy Rafael Furcal who is 100% physically and (most importantly) mentally (it takes a while to recover mentally from a surgery) regains his form and is again one of the elite short stops in baseball.  This alone makes a huge difference for the team.
• Blake DeWitt wins the 2B job and hits 18 HR’s silencing his critics, while playing a good 2B.  (Make No Mistake – the Dodgers want DeWitt to be the 2B).
• Reed Johnson and Jamey Carroll (who have been much maligned) become two important components of the team (THESE GUYS ARE BALLPLAYERS) and contribute mightily.
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw become Co-Aces.  Bills is in the best shape I’ve seen him.
• James Loney will hit for more power, as will Russ Martin – I can’t tell you what they will do, but I expect better results.
• George Sherrill will not do well this year – I would love to see the Dodgers trade him.  I can see an ERA of over 4.00.   Pull the trigger, Ned!  Just do it!
• There WILL BE a significant trade this Spring involving the Dodgers.
• Brian Giles will retire by next weekend.
• Ronnie Belliard will be insignificant and ultimately be released.
• Who will step up – Hu?
• Opening Day Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Kemp  CF
3. Ethier  RF
4. Ramirez  LF
5. Loney 1B
6. Blake  3B
7. DeWitt 2B
8. Martin  C
9. Kershaw  P

Televised Game Today at 12:05 PDT or 3:05 EDT

… nor am I a hater.  I see the good he has done as the owner of the Dodgers.  I see the mistakes he has made as well.  However, he seems to have learned each time he makes a mistake.   Overall, the Dodgers are in much better shape than when he took over.  His lifestyle seems excessive – in my business, I work with the rich and famous and don’t really care about all their “stuff.”  My “stuff” is fine.  If I had their money, I wouldn’t live the way they live… but that’s just me.  If they want to live excessively (my opinion) that’s their gig. 

However, I am sick of this Dodger Divorce.  It’s a soap opera and I will no longer talk about it until the case is decided.  I’ll take it a step further – I’ll delete any posts or comments on this issue.  I don’t want to hear about it.  It’s something I don’t care about.  I don’t care about “what if.”  I care about “what is.”  The Dodgers IS.

That’s what I want to focus on:  The Dodgers.  The baseball part of the business.  The players.  The coaches.  The minor leagues.  That’s all.  If I can’t do that, I’ll shut this blog down.

This is a Dodger blog – not a McCourt blog.  I don’t want it.  I won’t have it and I’m done with it.  “Frank, I don’t live for you, and hopefully you get that.”

This blog is about Matt Kemp, Jon Broxton, Eric Gagne, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Clayton Kershaw, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin and all the rest of the boys.

I am not against Frank McCourt… nor am I for him.

Whatever happens, happens – the Dodgers will thrive, or survive under Frank McCourt.

This is a Dodgers Zone!

Nothing else!

It turns out that Ronnie Belisario and I have a lot in common – No I don’t have a DUI, but we both have Visa problems that prevented us from reporting yesterday.  He hasn’t been able to obtain his, and I have to work to pay mine off!  So there you go.  Joe Torre isn’t mad at me , but he is mad at Ronnie! 

Spring is that time of year when the “little boy” in us all dreams big dreams: 

• Manny will have an MVP season
• Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier will combine to hit 80 HR and drive in 240
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw will be 1,2 or 2,1 in CY Young voting
• Russell Martin and Rafael Furcal will win Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves
• Eric Gagne will regain his form to become “Game Over” Gagne
• From James McDonald, Eric Stults and Charlie Haeger will emerge a #5 starter who goes 200 innings
• BelliCarroWitt will combine to hit over .300 at 2B
• Casey Blake didn’t have his career year last year – he will have it in 2010 – with a beard, no less

Now, most of those dreams will not happen, but some will and it’s going to be fun to see which ones play out.

Spring Notes:

• The Dodgers and Torre are working on an extension of one more year.
• Russell Martin allegedly looks like a fullback and has muscled up this year.  The last two years, he worked on flexibility and that simply didn’t work.  He’s allegedly about 20+ pounds heavier.
• To those of you who expect Casey Blake to have a bad year at 37, just look back at Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt and Pete Rose at 37.  If a guy takes care of himself, there no reason he can’t be at his peak then and I think that Casey Blake, while not in the category of the three above-mentioned 3B, is a candidate to do as good, probably better than last year.
• Rumor has it that James Loney may have “bulked up” over the winter.  That would make some of those fly balls, “Big Flies.”

Must Reading:

• Tony Jackson on Eric Gagne
• Dylan Hernandez on Chad Billingsley
• TJ Simers with a “Feel Good” Article on “Game Over”

The Dodger roster is finally coming together and now the discussions are changing from where is the rest of the team to why did they sign these slugs.  For the 2010 season the Dodger management, more than ever, must attempt to simultaneously win the NL West, delay the major league start dates of the future prospects (and their higher salaries), and have a fresh batch of players ready to graduate from the minors to the majors in case any of the players on the 25 man roster go on the DL for any significant length of time.  This is no small task to simultaneously accomplish these, and possibly other, partially contradictory objectives.

Most of us are of the opinion that the Dodger management is behaving as if without trading a player like Sherrill, the Dodgers do not have the budget, or the prospects, to go out and find replacements during the 2010 season.  Supporting this view is the Dodgers stockpiling of veterans on the 25 man bench, has beens in AAA, and prospects in AAA and AA.

In my opinion this is the correct approach for the 2010 season.  One factor is the increasing salary of the Dodger’s young stars.  Even with Manny, Kuroda, Padilla, and a few others probably not coming back for 2011 or 2012, the Dodger projected player salaries for those two future years is already more than $80 mil. With a 2011 team salary of $85 mil that is missing at least 2 starter pitchers, 1-2 position players, and several bench players, I conclude that the Dodger’s organizational Budget and Payroll is going to be a major issue for several years. 

Therefore, the Dodgers can no longer afford to sign multiple free agents.  Now they must develop the young players.  This approach may cause consternation among those of us that hope for a World Series title this decade. The current economic reality is the new reality and I for one will not be an ostrich and pretend otherwise.  (I am not a Politician) Maybe we can hope for another season with players who play most of the season in the zone like 1988.  Who will rise to the top this year?  Will the Coaches allow the players to pace themselves in 2010?  Will the pitchers learn how to trust their stuff, use the same correct pitching motion more than 50 percent of the time, and will the starters be forced to maintain a level of endurance that is necessary for them to actually make more than 90 pitches in a game?

Considering the Dodger’s unfunded future payroll obligations I am content with the following pitching plan for 2010:

Starting Pitching

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Stults

Long Relief

1. Weaver (Add to 40-man roster at the end of spring training)
   1. Heager
   2. Monasterios or Zerpa (Waive one of them at the end of spring training)

Short Relief

1. Broxton
2. Sherrill  (Candidate for a Trade)
3. Belisario
4. Kuo

Starters building innings at AAA or AA for 2011 rotation opportunity

1. McDonald
2. Lindblum
3. Troncoso
4. Elbert
5. Link

Starting Pitching alternatives in case of a starter going on the 15 day DL

1. McDonald
2. Troncoso
3. Elbert
4. Link

Starting Pitching additional alternatives in case of a starter going on the 60 day DL

1. Josh Lindblum
2. Russ Ortiz
3. Ramon Ortiz
4. Alberto Bastardo

Relievers building experience for 2011 bullpen opportunity

1. Wade
2. Schlitling
3. Leach
4. Jensen
5. Guerra

Reliever alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 15 day DL

1. Wade
2. Schlitling
3. Leach
4. Jensen
5. Guerra

Reliever additional alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 60 day DL

1. Justin Miller
2. Luis Ayala
3. Francisco Felix
4. Josh Towers

THE Chin

Green, Berroa, Carroll, Belliard, Johnson, Repko, Paul,  Hu, DeWitt, Mientkiewicz and Amezaga are all in the running to be “stuntmen.”  

The reality of the matter is that the majority of them will end up at AAA waiting for a call…  If you look at the stats of each (and I shall not bore you), not much jumps out. 

Maybe you can ascertain that Reed Johnson is a professional hitter (if healthy), and maybe you can even say the same about Carroll and Belliard, but Green, Berroa and Amezaga have never been known as hitters.  Missers, maybe.  Hitters?  Hardly!  Barring injury, I think it’s safe to assume that Johnson, Carroll and Belly will make the team.  So will Brad Ausmus. 

That leaves Green, Berroa, Repko, Paul, DeWitt, Hu, Mientkiewicz and Amezaga to fight for one spot.  May the best man win.  For the record, I think Amezaga will prevail (if healthy).

Oh, and sometimes guys like him have an unexplained “career year” only to fade into oblivion the next. 

You never know…

Have you seen “The Chin?”  When Casey Blake stands at 3B, his chin is on the mound.

Some people are saying that the Dodgers are a .500 team (when I say “some people” I don’t mean “informed baseball people”), which I think is just plain delusional.  I think sometimes Dodger fans fail to take into consideration that change is inevitable, and often, it is good.  Will everything be OK?  Seth Godin summed it up today by saying:

It’s natural to seek reassurance. Most of us want to believe that the choices we make will work out, that everything will be okay.

Artists and those that launch the untested, the new and the emotional (and I’d put marketers into all of these categories) wrestle with this need all the time. How can we proceed knowing that there’s a good chance that our actions will fail, that things might get worse, that everything won’t end up okay? In search of solace, we seek reassurance.

So people lie to us. So we lie to ourselves.

No, everything is not going to be okay. It never is. It isn’t okay now. Change, by definition, changes things. It makes some things better and some things worse. But everything is never okay.

Finding the bravery to shun faux reassurance is a critical step in producing important change. Once you free yourself from the need for perfect acceptance, it’s a lot easier to launch work that matters.

Will the Dodgers be OK?  We are so much in the middle of the Forest that we can’t see the trees, or is it we can’t see the Forest for the trees?  I will leaf that alone.  What I will say is that we often look at how a player performed last year and extrapolate that into the next.  What we fail to factor in is that we have a very young team and these guys often get better by leaps and bounds.  In some cases you can count on it.  I think we forget how far some of our young player have come, how much they have matured and how they will almost certainly continue down that same path. 

In the middle of the long, cold winter, I usually pick-up a copy of Lindy’s Fantasy Baseball(I never play it myself), because over the years, I have found that their takes are pretty close to the reality.  I don’t know for sure, but I think that they use a variety of statistical analysis as well as scouting resources to reach their conclusions.  At any rate, I have read them for many years and their accuracy rate is exceptional when predicting what players might do.  I thought I’d share a few of their predictions:

• Russell Martin is the 7th Highest Ranked Catcher in Baseball behind Soto, Posada, Wieters, McCann, Martinez and Mauer – no surprise there. He is rated ahead of Suzuki, Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, Yadier Molina,  Chris Iannetta and Mike Napoli.  I caught a lot of heat from some of you for ranking him that high, but you can see I’m not the only one!   (Projection:  .269/9 HR/58 RBI/470 AB)  Comments:  “He inexplicably morphed into Jason  Kendall with slightly more pop, slipping even in stolen bases, a category he once dominated.  He’ll either return to fantasy relevance or fade into oblivion this season.”
• James Loneyis the 15th Highest Rated First Baseman is Baseball ranked ahead of Chris Davis, Paul Konerko, Adam LaRoche, Jorge Cantu, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Casey Kotchman and Aubrey Huff (Projection:  .281/18 HR/30 DBL/92 RBI) Comments:  “There’s a lack of sizzle and a whole lot of Mark Grace going on here.  A more critical peek at his numbers reveals Loney is becoming more patient (70 walks last season), suggesting a brighter future.  He’s due for a spike … don’t bet on an explosion.”
• Of course, the Dodgers don’t have anyone rated at 2B, but I do hope they give Blake DeWitt the opportunity.  If he and Carroll can’t cut it, then we can make a deal.  Second-basemen are a dime a dozen and that All-Star you all wanted back (Orlando Hudson) is only the 16th rated at his position (and he wants $9 mil a year?  HA!).
• Casey Blake is ranked #17 at 3B, right ahead of Casey McGhee, Andy LaRoche, Garrett Atkins, Jhonny Peralta, Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigington and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  (Projection:  .276/18 HR/ 76 RBI).  The words they use as “consistent” and “solid.”  Certainly, he ’s no star, but we could do worse.  
• Raffy Furcal is ranked the #14 SS and Lindys calls him “No longer an elite fantasy option, as injuries have robbed him of his speed and power.”  (Projection: .283/10 HR/51 RBI/15 SB)  If he can put up those numbers with a .360 OB%, we will be fine. “Hurry up Dee Gordon!”
• Ryan Braun is rated the #1 outfielder, but #2 is none other than our Matt Kemp (Projection: .302/35 DBL/8 TRIP/31 HR/105 RBI/38 SB).  Those are “elite” numbers.  Andre Ethier is rated #16 (Projection: .293/36 DBL/30 HR/102 RBI) and Manny Ramirez is #18 (Projection: .302/26 HR/86 RBI).  They say that they still believe “Ethier will win a batting title” and that “Manny still has an elite batting eye and isn’t done being relevant in our game.”  If that prediction holds up for our outfielders, the Dodgers should be very good offensively.  In fact, that should be baseballs best offensive outfield.
• When it comes to pitching, Lindys has Clayton Kershaw at #16, just ahead of Cliff Lee!  Chris Carpenter was #15.  Other pitchers ranked behind Kershaw are:  Vazquez, Cain, Beckett, Jimenez, Webb, Peavy, Shields and Lackey who was rated #25, just ahead of Chad Billingsley at #26.  (Projections:  Kershaw- 16-6/2.88 ERA /198 IP/156 H/210 K/1.24 WHIP; Billingsley – 14-11/3.72 ERA/202 IP/180 H/188 K/1.29 WHIP).  Here’s what they say about Clayton:  “He’s a still a work in progress, last summer adding a slider to compliment his mid-90’s fastball and all-world curveball.  Check out Fangraphs.com for more on his slider and put a check next to his name on your cheatsheet.  He’s going to be unstoppable in the very near future.”  Yeah, like maybe in 2010?  Billingsley was rated ahead of the likes of Baker, Garza, Rodriguerz, Lilly, Weaver, Dempster, Nolasco, Anderson, Oswalt, Burnett, Bucholz, Jurrjens, Danks, Jackson and Harden.  They regards the 2nd half of 2009 as a “hiccup.”  Hiroki Kuroda was ranked #49, ahead of Hudson, Kazmir, Maine, Sherzer, Saunders, Pineiro, Zambrano and Randy Wolf (who was #65, and they predict 10 wins with an ERA over 4.00 for him).  They project Kuroda at 11-8 with a 3.63 ERA/182 IP and ad WHIP of 1.20.  Of Kuroda they said “his underlying numbers are solid and the injuries were not arm-related.“  Vicente Padilla weighed in at #96 (not bad for a #4), just behind Jon Garland at #95.  They project him at 12-10 with a 4.33 ERA and 169 IP with a 1.43 WHIP.
• Which brings us to Jon Broxton, ranked #5 as a closer.  Here’s the crux of what they say about him (sounds like what I say):  “Perhaps a visit with a sports psychologist is in order…”  ‘Nuff said!  George Sherrill is rated #40 and Lindys thinks he could close more on the road, especially against LH’ers (where Brox has his issues).

So, while Lindy’s is not Bill James or Fangraphs, it’s still very useful, and I have found that their projections are quite accurate.  I think a lot of Dodger fans depreciate the value of a lot of our young players, as well as our role-players.  The 2010 Version of the LA Dodgers is destined to be VERY, VERY GOOD!  Now, depending upon what happens with the divorce, we could be buyers in August.  Get ready for a great season!  I see at leat 93 wins!

DODGER NEWS:

• Jon Weisman has an excellent post on the Dodgers lack of resources at this juncture.
• The Phillies have $130 million committed to 14 players in 2011, which means they may not be abale to sign Jason Werth.  Hummmm…
• The Dodgers could sign Noah Lowery as soon as NOW!

There is much debate among baseball professionals and fans regarding the benefit of taking multiple pitches during an at bat in order to drive up the pitch count of the starting pitcher and to see more types of pitches in order to be more productive later in the game.  However, it is well know that a batter’s batting average drops drastically when they get behind in the count. 

Lets’ look at the 7 returning Dodger starters and how they batted last year.

Loney has the best batting average for a specific count three times; Rameriz, Ethier and Kemp twice; and Martin once.  Martin has the worst batting average for a specific count five times; Blake twice; and Rameriz, Kemp, Furcal and Ethier once.

 The seven starter’s combined batting average is above their OBP when hitting at counts 2 – 0; 3 – 1; and 2 – 1. Six starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 2 – 0.  Five starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 3 – 1. Three starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 2 – 1.  So why must the batters take a pitch at these counts.  Certainly when a batter’s average on certain counts is above their OBP for the season they should be hitting.  Maybe taking pitches at these counts is one of the reasons that the Dodger batting average with RISP was so poor last year.

Six batters have an average below .200 when the count is 2 – 2.  Four batters have an average below .200 when the count is 0 – 2 or 1 – 2.  These batters should be more aggressive and tryvery hard not to let the count get to these levels.  Maybe taking extra strikes, that result in these counts, is one of the reasons that the Dodger batting average with RISP was so poor last year.

 Blake has an average below .200 when the count is either 1 – 0; or 0 – 1.  He obviously needs to take many pitches in order to become accustomed to the movement and speed of pitches. Martin even has an average below .200 when the count is 3 – 2.   Obviously Martin’s batting approached is completely screwed up.  He does have a batting average above .400 only when the count is 1 – 0; 2 – 0; and 3 – 1, so for him to take strikes is really insanity.

 In conclusion, each player handles pressure differently and adjusts their swing to the count and situation differently so a blind alliance to taking a lot of pitches is sophomoric.

Los Angeles – In what has to be somewhat of a surprise, the Dodgers made two major announcements today.  The first announcement has to do with the divorce proceedings of Frank and Jamie McCourt who agreed to a continuance of their May hearing:

The McCourt’s announced that they have resolved their personal issues and that Jamie will keep all personal property, vehicles, art and personal items.  She also agreed to a $100,000,000.00 payment (payable over 5 years at 6% interest) from Frank McCourt, and assumes her role as CEO of the Dodgers Dream Foundation which will be funded by a $8 million a year grant from the Dodgers.  In return, Frank McCourt gets sole ownership of the Dodgers and has agreed to hire all their sons as club executives. 

Next, Ned Colletti took the dais and said that this is a big burden off the Dodgers and made the following announcement:  “The Dodgers have just completed a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Mariners, who have fallen 26 games below .500. whereby  Chris Withrow, Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert, Casey Blake and  James McDonald have been traded to the Blue Jays for Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Felix Hernandez.  Hernandez has agreed to to a six-year/$125 million deal and Lee has agreed to a 4 year/$90 mil deal.  Our lineup will look like this right now:

1. Figgins  3B
2. Furcal SS
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Martin  C
7. Loney  1B
8. DeWitt 2B

Our Rotation now looks like this as we ready for the stretch run:

Hernandez, Lee, Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda.

Colletti continued:  “With the expiring contracts of Ramirez and Kuroda, we we able to take on more payroll since the ownership issue was resolved and our lenders opened their pockets again.  If we had made all the dope-fiend moves suggested on LaDodgerTalk.com, we would have never had the flexibility to pull this off.  Sure, we gave up a lot, but we are going to win this thing!   I’m glad I listened to Mark Timmons….”

I made my plans and got my tickets yesterday for Camelback Ranch.  I will be there on March 20th through March 27th.  My wife and son will be flying in on the 25th to see the last 3 games with me.  I haven’t gotten the away game tickets, but I’ll work on that next week.  It’s going to be a great Spring Training.   Like Roger mentioned last week, there seems to be gloom and doom by lots of commenters on this board, but that is not a concept shared by most of the national media (which worries me). 

Ride Manny Ride

There is a Mini-Camp in late January at Camelback and I was going to have Rory (Badger) cover it, but after talking with Josh Rawitch, it looks like there will be no media.  Maybe Badger can rent a helicoptor and fly around taking pictures for us. 

Voldomer will be there from March 8-13 and has said that he will provide updates and photos as well.  Badger lives near there, so hopefully he can do the same.

I plan to have LA LodgerTalk T-Shirts available by the End of January – stay tuned, because they will be VERY COOL!   At a very good price I might add….

Some fans have asked which young players have the best chance of making the team.  Here’s my list (in no particular order):

• Josh Lindblom (middle relief)
• Xavier Paul  (4th OF) – This guy has a bat with a lot of pop (great “gap” power) and the best arm in the organization. 
• Carlos Monasterios  (5th Starter) – He has looked good in the Winter League
• Armando Zerpa (middle relief) – Just because he’s LH and they have to keep him or lose him.
• Brent Leach (middle relief) – We have already seen that he has good stuff… and he’s LH
• Travis Schlichting (middle relief) – See Brent Leach, but he’s not LH

Jon Link, Chin-lung Hu, Scott Elbert (who may not be rookies), Jason Repko and AJ Ellis also have a crack at making the team.

Several sources have reported that Jason Repko signed a $500,000.00 deal with the Dodgers to avaoid arbitration.   Just a few weeks ago, most bloggers were saying that he would be “non-tendered.” 

Below is the Spring Training Schedule

Some people say I am too optimistic and that I always predict career years for the Dodgers, so I thought I’d post what I said last year.  This is from a February 16, 2009 post, which was BEFORE O-Dog and Manny were signed:

1B- James Loney is quietly becoming a force at 1B.  He will win a Gold Glove soon and should be a .300 hitter with 20 HR and 100 RBI.  That puts him near the top at his position.

2B- Blake DeWitt will be the official starter, but Mark Loretta will start against tough LH pitchers.  I predict that this platoon will produce a BA of .270/20 HR and 70 RBI from the #8 hole.

SS- If Rafael Furcal stays healthy, he is one of the top impact players in the game.

3B- Casey Blake provides a very important mental toughness which will help his young teammates.  The versatility of DeWitt (2B, 3B) and Blake (3B, 1B, LF, RF) allows Joe Torre to “rest”  Russell Martin at 3B on certain days.  Blake could also see some time in LF.

LF- Andre Ethier will be a year better and I project him at .300/25/100.  He is an excellent LF as well, with a very good arm.  He’s not as soft as he once was.

CF – Juan Pierre has to play here.  He’s not the greatest CF ever, but he covers more ground than Kemp and has more experience.  He needs to play there if Manny is not signed.

RF – Matt Kemp is possibly the offensive key to our season.  If he continues to improve, and realizes more of his potential (he reported with the pitchers and catchers to Spring Training), he will not be  just be the Bison, but he’ll also be the Monster.  I expect him to hit near .300 with 25-30 HR and 110 RBI from the Cleanup Spot.  He will also have about 15-20 Outfield Assists.

C-  This will be the year that Russell Martin distances himself from most other catchers in baseball.   His hitting and defense will be elevated, but most importantly, he will become the Dodgers captain.

OK, how did I do?  Loney was short of .300  and while he did have 90 RBI, his power didn’t yet amnifest itself, but I wasn’t far off.  O-Dog played 2B so I am returning to my prediction at 2B for DeWitt and Carroll.  Raffy had a bad year – I don’t know if it was injury related but it wasn’t good.  Blake was what he was.  I “underestimated”  Ethier and “overestimated” Martin.    My prediction on Kemp was pretty accurate.

So, where’s the beef?

In the same post I said:

This team is a lot better than most of you think, even without Manny!  For the record, if Manny doesn’t sign with us, it will be with the Yankees, which would make more of their outfielders available.  I still don’t see anyone beating the Dodgers offers to Manny because baseball expects to be hurting this year.  The Dodgers have sold half of the season tickets they projected for spring training and all the teams realize that with the economy more and more people will cut back on games and cut back on what they buy at the park.  You are kidding yourself if you think someone will pay Manny more than the Dodgers – certainly not the Giants!  One final thing.  If Manny doesn’t sign, we still can sign Orlando Hudson and put him at 2B, move Dewitt to 3B and platoon Blake and Pierre in the OF.  Just a thought…

You never know how things will play out, but I wasn’t too far off!

Here’s what I see with our offense for next season:

1. Furcal  SS -  Raffy rebounds (it is an “even” year) and has his career year with a .303 BA, .381 OB% and 126 Runs Scored, even though he only steels 26 bases
2. Martin C- Perfect #2 hitter rebounds with a .279 BA to go with .388 OB%
3. Loney 1B – Breakout year at 1B with 22 HR. 106 RBI and a .316 BA
4. Kemp CF – Monster year with MVP like numbers - .312 BA, 38 HR and 119 RBI
5. Manny LF – Continues to be a very good player, not not “elite-class” – .299 BA, 27 HR, 96 RBI
6. Ethier RF – A nice year, but not quite as good as 2009 – .274 BA 27 HR and 93 RBI
7. Blake 3B – Solid, but not great with a .267 BA, 18 HR and 78 RBI
8. DeWitt 2B – Nice year with a .258 BA to go with 19 HR and 67 RBI

It’s rare when most players on a team have good years, but I think the numbers I have assigned each player are certainly within their capability!

Feel free to agree… or not!

I also think Doug Mientkiewicz and Jamey Carroll will make a nice L-R pinch-hitting tandem, although neither has much power.  Angel Berroa is insurance in case the Reds wanted Hu in the alleged Harang deal, which is near dead according to Dylan Hernandez of The LA Times.  In the same article he quotes Ned Colletti as saying that Jon Link (acquired in the Pierre deal) is the closest to major league ready:

Of the two pitchers the Dodgers acquired from the Chicago White Sox to complete the Juan Pierre trade, Colletti said 25-year-old reliever Jon Link was the closest to being major-league-ready.

“He has a chance to be on our club this year,” he said.

Link saved 13 games and had a 3.99 earned-run average in 48 relief appearances for triple-A Charlotte last season. The Dodgers also received John Ely in the deal. Ely, 23, was 14-2 with a 2.82 ERA for double-A Birmingham last season.

Colletti said the Dodgers remain interested in re-signing backup catcher Brad Ausmus, but if they fail to do so, they would feel comfortable with A.J. Ellis in that role.

ADRIAN BELTRE

I was asked about Adrian Beltre yesterday on the other thread and while I do not think it is likely the Dodgers will sign him, I think he would be a huge upgrade at 3B.  First, let’s compare stats:

These stats are based upon playing 162 games a year.  At age 36, Casey Blake has 6.5 years of major league service.  Adrian Beltre at age 30 has 10.3 years of major league experience.  Adrian had some serious injuries last year, but at age 30, should be in his prime.  We have to expect a decline for Blake at as 36.  Beltre is a huge defensive upgrade at 3B (Blake was a surprise there last year, however).  

However, the main reason I want Beltre is “JUST A GUT FEELING THAT A RETURN TO THE DODGERS WOULD CATAPULT HIM TO AN ALL-STAR YEAR!”  

Totally rational!

This is off-topic, but I can do that:

The Only Dallas Assured of a Playoff Spot

Oh the weather outside is frightful,

But the Colts are so delightful.

As the Broncos already know,

13-0, 13-0, 13-0!

DODGER NEWS:

Now, back to your regularly scheduled Dodger programming:

• The Mets allegedly offered Luis Castillo to the Dodgers for Juan Pierre, but were turned down.  That should tell Blake DeWitt that the Dodgers like him better than Castillo.  So do I!
• Ken Rosenthal purposes that a trade be made whereby the Dodgers get Cliff Lee and the Phillies get Roy Halladay.  I think he’s been hitting the crack pipe too much!
• In case you missed it earlier, Eric Stults is not going to Japan – probably a smart move to keep the depth we have.
• There are a few players who were non-tendered that might be on the Dodgers radar – Kelly Johnson, Garrett Adkins, Chien-Ming Wang, Johnny Gomes, Alfredo Amezaga  and D.J. Carrosco.   Maybe nothing, maybe something. 
• I still believe the Dodgers will move Juan Pierre… and possibly Casey Blake.  Blake is cheap (we could always throw in a couple of mil) and KC or Cleveland could take him.  If we could move Pierre and Blake, I would sign Adrian Beltre (yeah, yeah, yeah).  Adkins is a big risk.  His stats were never great outside of Colorado and he really sucked everywhere last year!

Just in case you haven’t figured it out, attendance at Dodger Stadium is not the only source of income for the Dodgers.  While their have attendance has been stellar,

Hu's on the team

 most other teams  have seen substantial declines in attendance, which means that the Dodgers get a smaller cut of the gate and concessions.  It is not clear what the amount of the decline is to me, but I estimate it at around $15 to $20 million a year.  Couple that with MLB Apparel and Memorabilia sales declines and the Dodgers could be losing as much as $20 to $25 million a year in revenue as a result of the recession.  It may get better next year.  It may not.  Some teams (can you say Cincinnati Reds?) are looking to dump payroll.  The Dodgers are looking to stay level or even drop payroll.  I have an idea:

How about Juan Pierre, James McDonald, Ivan DeJesus, Jr., and Blake DeWitt to the Reds for either Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips?  Up-shoot:  The Reds save $10 mil a year and get some prospects (along with a  leadoff hitter – Dusty Baker loves Pierre) and the Dodgers spend only an extra $10 mil to get an “inning eater” pitcher and a 2B.  Next, the Dodgers should offer Hudson and Wolf arbitration, making it clear to Hudson that Phillips is the 2B, and if he won his arbitration case he’d be a backup.  Hudson would decline arbitration, but Wolf could accept.  That’s fine!

Dole out the raises to the youngsters and the Dodgers are done!  Our rotation would look something like this:

1. Kershaw
2. Billingsley
3. Kuroda
4. Arroyo/Harang
5. Wolf or Heager

Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Phillips  2B
7. Loney  1B
8. Blake 3B

I could live with that!  Harang makes $11.5 mil next year and Arroyo makes $11 mil, so pick ‘em.  You never know – they could be a dud or they could be a Godsend!  Sometimes you have to roll the dice.  Castro is headed to Philly and Hu is the logical backup infielder.  Xavier Paul, Jason Repko and Jamie Hoffman are candidates for two outfield spots.  Ausmus may or may not play for a million next year, but if he doesn’t Ellis or another bargain Free Agent will be available. 

The Dodgers should be able to field an excellent team for under (or around) $100 million.  Harang and Arroyo’s average years are not what I expect.  I would hope for a “carrer year” for whichever one come to LA.  You gotta’ believe!  The “kids” will be year better next and Martin and Loney will “breakout.”  Believe it!

GoodNews/BadNews:

• Bud Selig will be commissioner at least 3 more seasons.
• The Marlins are shopping Josh Johnson… Hummmmmm, I may have to revise my thinking…

I had a cheesy grin on my face as I read the Top 200 Prospect list put out by True Blue LA.  The Dodgers do not have 200 Prospects.  They have about 20 PROSPECTS and 180 SUSPECTS!  However, the Dodgers Organization is not nearly as bereft of prospects as some think.  We don’t have a bunch that are major-league ready, but DeJesus, Lindblom, Elbert, Haeger, Schlichting and Leach are all close to ready and while I don’t see any as “superstars” I believe that some of them will be very good players.  However, we are in a position where we don’t need a bunch of young players RIGHT NOW.

Behind the players mentioned above are Gordon, Lambo, Robinson, Van Slyke, Russell, Withrow, Adkins, Martin, Eovaldi, May, Mitchell, Baez, Jansen, Delmonico, Gallagher, Miller and Guerra.  Some of those guys will be complete “busts” and others who are not on the radar will step up.   Additionally, last years draft has yielded some very good prospects. 

All-in-all, we have 4 or 5 young players who could make the team this year and the second wave is another year or two away.  We don’t have the Jacksonville Five, but in 2011 you could see the Lambo Leap! Read the full story

Don’t throw your stats at me.  This is just a gut feeling.  The stats say Adrian Beltre is a good (not great) 3B, but I think he could be a  Great 3B for us at age 30!  Just a gut feeling.  I want Adrian Beltre back, but first we have to move Casey Blake.  Blake’s contract isn’t huge, so hecould easily be moved, maybe packaged in the right deal.  The Tigers could use infield help (Cabrera would be DH) at 1B and 3B, especially if Polonco walks.  The Tigers also covet Sherrill, so how about sending them Blake, Sherrill and McDonald for Edwin Jackson.  I found the trade of Sherrill for Jackson laughable – the Tigers would want more, and I think Blake and McDonald would fill that need.  They could even use a SS such as Hu. 

Forget signing a 2B.  Adrian Beltre would get us 25-30 HR at 3B (maybe more) and we would be solid defensively.  Let 2B be a platoon of DeWitt and Hu or DeJesus.  Use 2B as a minimum salary position.  I think this is do-able!  It’s just a gut feeling, but I believe that Adrian Beltre would be an All-Star with the Dodgers.  He would be like a “hog in sloop” back in LA.  Just do it Ned!  Pull the triggers!

Jackson would be a solid #3 and would give us an “inning eater.”  Beltre gives the Dodgers the power they crave.  It’s a risk, but it was also a risk when Bill Belicheck went on 4th down last Sunday.   Oh….

If you have a home which is worth $400,000 or $400,000,000 and you are served divorce papers by your spouse,  what do you do?  It’s obvious that a great part of the parties’ net worth is that asset.  Some people are idiots about this – some have even burned-down the house rather than split the proceeds.  Are the McCourts that stupid?  I doubt it.  Both appear to be greedy, self-absorbed, high-achievement people whom I think  want to maximize their investments.  What should they do?    The biggest asset I think is the Dodgers.  They have to keep that asset shiny and new – to make money now and to make the asset continue to appreciate.  That’s why I think they will “Paint the House, not Blow-Up the House!  We might not have a $120 million payroll, but it won’t be $75 million either!

SECOND BASE- I think that the Dodger Brass has identified 2B as a position that needs a power upgrade.  Casey Blake is not a Big HR Hitter at 3B, Raffy isn’t at SS, Loney currently is not a power hitter at 1B, and Martin is not a HR hitter at C.  Our only power is in the outfield.   I think many people believe the Dodgers “stuck it to” Orlando Hudson so as not to have to pay him.  If it had been $3 million, I’d buy it, but $10,000 or $190,000 (which is actually closer) is “chump change.”  I think Joe Torre played Belliard in the playoffs (which didn’t count on O-Dog’s incentives) so they would have more power.  I believe that’s the long and short of it, which brings me to what they will do at 2B next year.  Read the full story

The Dodgers have improved over 2008.   They won more games, but they still couldn’t get past the Phillies, and the Phillies will still be good next year.  I suspect that Raul Ibanez had his career year and will slip back to reality next year and the Phillies will have some holes to fill, just like the Dodgers.  Like the Dodgers, the Phillies have a former ace who needs to come back and I believe both will.  It would not surprise me to see either one win a Cy Young Award in the future, even as easly as next year.  I fully expect Hamels and Billingsley to both win 16-18 games next year.  Both pitchers have too much talent.

Manny will return as Manny, because he’s playingfor Manny,  and the Dodgers should benefit from his quest for a new contract, in what will certainly be his last year as a Dodger.  Look for Manny to hit .320+ with 35 HR and 130 RBI.  I look for more growth by Kemp and Ethier as both become perennialAll-Stars.   Russ Martin?  He’ll be back with a vengeance!  Count on it!    I do see two areas in which the Dodgers need to improve:  They need more power from 3B and 1B and they will get it from James Loney at 1B, who I believe will hit around 25 dingers.  He has shown he is capable.  3B is another issue.  Casey Blake had a better year than I expected, but he’s still a journeyman at best.   We need a big HR bat at 3B and will will get robbed if we try and trade or one.  Here’s what we do:  Sign Adrian Beltre!  Sign Adrian Beltre.   He loves LA and is a cinch to hit 30 for the Dodgers.  Yeah, I know you don’t believe me, but he will!    If you want to look at stats, then I’ll use the year he hit 48 HR as a stat!  He’s young enough that we can sign him to a 5 year deal.   That means we need to dump Blake, and we can do that in a deal for Roy Halliday. I purpose that we trade Jon Broxton, Casey Blake, James McDonald, Ethan Martin,  and Chris Withrow to Toronto for Roy Halliday (pay a lot, get a lot).  I am not a Blake hater, but we need to get younger and better at 3B! Read the full story

 This team is far from needing rebuilding, but any good team needs to ”retool” every year.  Last year, the Phillies won the World Series with Pat Burrell in LF.  They evidently decided

Must Be A Padre Fan...

 that he wasn’t the answer this year, so they signed a guy even older who ended up having his career year.   The Phillies may yet be sorry that they signed Raul Ibanez, but right about now, that move is looking pretty good.    They added Shane Victorino and Jason Werth in 2005 and 2007 as key pieces to the puzzle.  How did they get them?  No Big Blockbuster Deals, just incidental signings, which turned out to be pretty good.    I don’t think we need to rebuild – the core of the team is in place, but re-tool, we must!

I have taken the 40-Man Roster, plus some others who are technically not on it and divided them into three (3) groups:

1. Core players who we need to keep – in BLUE;
2. Players who we needs to keep under the right conditions – in BLACK; and
3. Players we need to try and lose, trade, release or not sign – in RED.

It’s not hard to see that our core is young and will get even better.  I have Jon Broxton on the BLUE list (even though I have serious doubts about him), because we don’t currently have better options (that too could change).  Now, I am not saying that I wouldn’t trade Broxton or some of the others, but it would have to be a trade that we would make from a point of strength.  Read the full story

Look, several (many) players let us down, but that’s the nature of playoff baseball.  Look at A-Rod, and how he failed his first few years in the playoffs.  Players handle the situation differently.  Some step up (Loney, Martin) and others struggle (Kemp, Ethier), while some vets disapear (Blake, Furcal), which is very, very disappointing.  Casey Blake and Rafael Furcal could have made all the difference. They did hit .279 (combined).  They are both seasoned vets and both could not buy a hit.  That was huge.  Manny wasn’t Manny, and likely never will be again.  I TOLD YOU AND TOLD THAT YOU WE SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNED HIM!  Never doubt me again.   I see some players as “keeper” and others as “trade bait.”  Manny can never take over a game like he used to.  That’s history!

It hurts to see that Victorino and Werth, both former Dodgers hurt us badly, but both players are 30 years old (Victorino is actually close) and you can’t keep a player forever.  Werth was constantly hurt as a Dodger, and Victorino wasn’t all that then.  They are “all that” now!  Good for them, but it took years.  Our guys are mid-20’s.  There’s plenty of time.   

I’m rooting for the Phillies in  the World Series.   I love the Phillies.

If Ethier and Kemp are back in the playoffs next year – look for a different result.  Martin will come back with a vengeance and Kershaw and Billingsley will be a year smarter.  Young Clayton got “schooled” in this series.  Don’t hold your breath waiting for it to happen again.   Chad Billingsley will win 20 next year.  Book it! Read the full story