Starting Pitching ($22,800,000):

1. Kershaw (He will pitch great but with a losing record) $425K
2. Billingsley (He will figure “IT” out this year) $3,850,000
3. Padilla (Will surprise us this year) $5,025,000
4. Kuroda (50% probability of injury) $13,000,000
5. Stults (Will continue to pitch very erratically until Torre gives up on him) $500K

Relievers ($11,550,000):

1. Broxton (Will have an erratic year with some Great weeks) $4 mil
2. Kuo (Will have a great year unless Torre overuses him) $950K
3. Troncoso (Will probably have a sore arm in 2010) $460K
4. Sherrill (Will have an average year) $4.5 mil
5. Monasterios (Mop up guy for 2010 preparing for a good 2011 year) $410K
6. Weaver – (Swing Man will have a below average year/may be released) $750K
7. Heager – (Relieving will improve his game until he becomes a Starter) $430K

Others on 40 man Roster:

1. Elbert – (AAA) MLB Starter in waiting
2. McDonald – (AAA) MLB Starter in waiting
3. Link – AAA
4. Wade – AAA
5. Belisario – Released or traded
6. Schlitling – Sept Call up
7. Leach – Sept Call up
8. Jensen – Sept Call up
9. Guerra – AA
10. Zerpa – Released under Rule 5 rules

Position Players ($38,410,000):

1. Ellis (Will play good enough until Martin gets “IT”) $430K
2. Loney (2010 better than Wes Parker’s best year) $3.1 mil
3. DeWitt (Will play erratically until he finally uses the whole field) $410K
4. Furcal (Will have an above average year) $8.5 mil
5. Blake (Will have an average year with many minor injuries) $6 mil
6. Rameriz (Will have an erratic year) $10 mil
7. Kemp (Women weaken legs – Will play bad at home & good on the road) $4 mil
8. Either (Same as 2009) $6 mil

Bench Players ($4,375,000):

1. Ausmus (Will be passed by Ellis and converted to Coach) $850K
2. Carroll (Will play well & often but not worth the price) $1.35 mil
3. Belliard (Will be traded in mid-year) $825K
4. Anderson OF & 1B (Will be better than Sweeney) $550K
5. Johnson (Will play good enough until injured) $800K

Others on 40 man Roster ($5,050,000):

1. Martin – (Will struggle as the coaches attempt to correct his swing) $5.05 mil
2. Repko – Waived to create roster spot for Anderson
3. May – AAA
4. Robinson – AAA
5. DeJesus – AA
6. Paul – AAA until he replaces Johnson
7. Hu – AAA until he replaces Belliard

Written by Ken

Just a laundry list of a few things I expect to see this year:

• A healthy Rafael Furcal who is 100% physically and (most importantly) mentally (it takes a while to recover mentally from a surgery) regains his form and is again one of the elite short stops in baseball.  This alone makes a huge difference for the team.
• Blake DeWitt wins the 2B job and hits 18 HR’s silencing his critics, while playing a good 2B.  (Make No Mistake – the Dodgers want DeWitt to be the 2B).
• Reed Johnson and Jamey Carroll (who have been much maligned) become two important components of the team (THESE GUYS ARE BALLPLAYERS) and contribute mightily.
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw become Co-Aces.  Bills is in the best shape I’ve seen him.
• James Loney will hit for more power, as will Russ Martin – I can’t tell you what they will do, but I expect better results.
• George Sherrill will not do well this year – I would love to see the Dodgers trade him.  I can see an ERA of over 4.00.   Pull the trigger, Ned!  Just do it!
• There WILL BE a significant trade this Spring involving the Dodgers.
• Brian Giles will retire by next weekend.
• Ronnie Belliard will be insignificant and ultimately be released.
• Who will step up – Hu?
• Opening Day Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Kemp  CF
3. Ethier  RF
4. Ramirez  LF
5. Loney 1B
6. Blake  3B
7. DeWitt 2B
8. Martin  C
9. Kershaw  P

Televised Game Today at 12:05 PDT or 3:05 EDT

Spring Training has broken out at Camelback Ranch and the news is pouring in:

• According to Ken Gurnick, Dodgers’ Bullpen Coach Ken Howell discovered a flaw in Eric Gagne’s delivery which he is attempting to correct.

The former Cy Young Award-winning closer made a quick adjustment and, according to Howell, immediately gained velocity on his fastball and drop on his changeup, although not yet with enough consistency.

• Sandy Koufax toutors young Dodger pitchers
• Eric Stults gets first shot as the 5th Starter
• Joe Torre gets Koufax and Kershaw together for some quality time
• The best part of the interview with Koufax was when TJ Simers asked “What bugs you?” to which Sandy responded “Sportswriters like you.” Classic Koufax
• By introducing Clayton Kershaw at the interview, it is obvious the Dodgers are anointing him the opening day starter, and evidently Joe Torre and the Dodger Brass believe he is ready and able to take a huge step forward this year and be our ACE!
• Dylan Hernandez on whether Andre Ethier is moody (maybe he’s just focused)
• Hong-Chih Kuo from Dylan Hernandez
• Steve Dilbeck on Eric Stults and that the job is his to lose
• Stults starts the game today against the ChiSox

… nor am I a hater.  I see the good he has done as the owner of the Dodgers.  I see the mistakes he has made as well.  However, he seems to have learned each time he makes a mistake.   Overall, the Dodgers are in much better shape than when he took over.  His lifestyle seems excessive – in my business, I work with the rich and famous and don’t really care about all their “stuff.”  My “stuff” is fine.  If I had their money, I wouldn’t live the way they live… but that’s just me.  If they want to live excessively (my opinion) that’s their gig. 

However, I am sick of this Dodger Divorce.  It’s a soap opera and I will no longer talk about it until the case is decided.  I’ll take it a step further – I’ll delete any posts or comments on this issue.  I don’t want to hear about it.  It’s something I don’t care about.  I don’t care about “what if.”  I care about “what is.”  The Dodgers IS.

That’s what I want to focus on:  The Dodgers.  The baseball part of the business.  The players.  The coaches.  The minor leagues.  That’s all.  If I can’t do that, I’ll shut this blog down.

This is a Dodger blog – not a McCourt blog.  I don’t want it.  I won’t have it and I’m done with it.  “Frank, I don’t live for you, and hopefully you get that.”

This blog is about Matt Kemp, Jon Broxton, Eric Gagne, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Clayton Kershaw, Casey Blake, Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin and all the rest of the boys.

I am not against Frank McCourt… nor am I for him.

Whatever happens, happens – the Dodgers will thrive, or survive under Frank McCourt.

This is a Dodgers Zone!

Nothing else!

It turns out that Ronnie Belisario and I have a lot in common – No I don’t have a DUI, but we both have Visa problems that prevented us from reporting yesterday.  He hasn’t been able to obtain his, and I have to work to pay mine off!  So there you go.  Joe Torre isn’t mad at me , but he is mad at Ronnie! 

Spring is that time of year when the “little boy” in us all dreams big dreams: 

• Manny will have an MVP season
• Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier will combine to hit 80 HR and drive in 240
• Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw will be 1,2 or 2,1 in CY Young voting
• Russell Martin and Rafael Furcal will win Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves
• Eric Gagne will regain his form to become “Game Over” Gagne
• From James McDonald, Eric Stults and Charlie Haeger will emerge a #5 starter who goes 200 innings
• BelliCarroWitt will combine to hit over .300 at 2B
• Casey Blake didn’t have his career year last year – he will have it in 2010 – with a beard, no less

Now, most of those dreams will not happen, but some will and it’s going to be fun to see which ones play out.

Spring Notes:

• The Dodgers and Torre are working on an extension of one more year.
• Russell Martin allegedly looks like a fullback and has muscled up this year.  The last two years, he worked on flexibility and that simply didn’t work.  He’s allegedly about 20+ pounds heavier.
• To those of you who expect Casey Blake to have a bad year at 37, just look back at Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt and Pete Rose at 37.  If a guy takes care of himself, there no reason he can’t be at his peak then and I think that Casey Blake, while not in the category of the three above-mentioned 3B, is a candidate to do as good, probably better than last year.
• Rumor has it that James Loney may have “bulked up” over the winter.  That would make some of those fly balls, “Big Flies.”

Must Reading:

• Tony Jackson on Eric Gagne
• Dylan Hernandez on Chad Billingsley
• TJ Simers with a “Feel Good” Article on “Game Over”

Pitchers and Catchers report on February 2o, 2010 and the first workout is February 21, 2010, so I am going to take a few days off.  I’ll be back on the 20th or 21st. 

I’ll leave you with a few things to cuss and discuss:

• Is it possible that the Combination of Reed Johnson and Brian Giles will be even better than Juan Pierre last year?  Think about that one really hard.
• Why can’t a guy who hit over .300 for the first two months of 2008 and is in his 6th professional season make the transition to everyday 2B?  Think about this:  9 trips!  That has to have an effect, but also serves to help you grow up real quick.  Is it possible we will see the 2008 April and May Blake DeWitt all year?
• Jamey Carroll can play every infield position and every outfield position (he hasn’t played SS for a couple of years, but he can in an emergency) and hits nearly .350 as a pinch hiiter.  Do you think he might have some value? 
• Could this be THE year Kuroda is injury-free (remember, it’s not his arm that has been the problem)?
• Does anyone in their right mind think that sometime  between September 2008 and August 2009, Manny Ramirez just “lost it?’   OR, is it possible you could see him be a beast in the least year of his contract?
• What are the chances in July or August that a team who (1) loses a closer to injury, or (2)  has a closer who is not getting the job done, elects to trade for Ronnie Belisario and/or George Sherrill?
• The Dodgers will have a shuttle to and from Albaquacky (I can’t spell Albuquerque) all year -especially for the pitching staff.  At any given time, we could have Troncoso,  Wade, Schlichting, Leach, Lindblom, Miller and Felix there at any given minute.  Expect to see a lot of movement to and from there.
• DARKHORSE:  Ivan DeJesus, Jr. – Could he “sieze the day at 2B?s  Brian Barton (who?) – You never know!!!
• Charles Haeger is out of options and so is Eric Stults.  If, for no other reason than that, they will be given a shot at being the #5.   Because of that, I think Scott Elbert starts the year at AAA.  James McDonald might end up back in AAA so that he can start as well, but I think he’ll play out better as a reliever.  We’ll see.
• Could it be that the Dodgers won’t have a  true SS as a backup this year?  Carroll could well be the emergency SS and Hu and Green would only be a cab ride away. 
• There’s a real chance Amezaga won’t play this year.
• I think the Dodgers will go with 11 pitchers in April.
• Belliard is not a lock to make the team!

This could be your Opening Day Lineup & Roster:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Ethier  RF
5. Manny  LF
6. Loney  1B
7. Blake  3B
8. DeWitt  2B
9. Billingsley  P

Reserves:

1. Carroll
2. Belliard or Doug M ( I can’t spell Mientkiewicz)
3. Giles
4. Johnson
5. Ausmus

Pitchers:

1. Billingsley
2. Kershaw
3. Kuroda
4. Padilla
5. Haeger
6. Stults
7. Kuo
8. Sherrill
9. Belisario
10. Troncoso
11. Broxton

I’ll be in Carmelback from March 20-27, 2010.  See you there.

Carry on!

• The Orioles have signed Joe Guzman to a minor league deal.  Is he Jack Cust?  Maybe.  Maybe not!  Do you remember when…?
• Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin, Manny and Furcal should be better,  Blake should be the same.  DeWitt/Carroll/Belliard may be worse than 2B last year (maybe not).  How does that make us not as good as last year?  Is this the new math?
• Carlos Santana (who has been “annointed” the chosen one) has never played above AA.  Who knew?
• Steven Johnson (the pitcher in the Sherrill trade) was released and is now a Giant.  Steve, We’ll blast you if you come to the Ravine.
• The Cincinnati Reds are going to surprise you. 
• To those of you who think the Dodgers didn’t affer arbitration to Wolf and Hudson because they couldn’t afford it:  “GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF WHEREVER IT IS.”
• The Cubs will tank again and Sweet Lou will be given the pink slip by August.
• The Dodgers and the Cards will play in the NLCS.
• Roy Halladay will win 7 games this year.  Cliff Lee will win the AL Cy Young.
• Camelback will be a “hoot” this Spring.
• Who wants a LaDdodgerTalk polo and what size?
• Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson were 50-50 odds to accept arbitration.  I know these things!
• Raffy will have his best year ever in 2010, with only 16 stolen bases.
• Vicente Padilla will have more wins and a better ERA than Randy Wolf.
• The Rockies will win 82 games.
• Andre Ethier will win the NL MVP.
• Chad Billingsley will be the Chad we USED to know.
• Who ‘dat?  Colts ‘dat!  Yes they are!

Tony Jackson of ESPN.LosAngeles and Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times are both reporting of the Dodgers interest in several players for the 4th outfield spot.  I suppose

A Freakin' Gazelle

 there are reasons to consider Gross, Anderson and maybe even Johnson, but Brian Giles?  He became irrelevant a couple of years ago.  The problem is that none are Center Fielders and unless thay are keeping Repko as #5, it makes no sense.  If they are keeping Repko, then I would pick Garrett Anderson.  He could be our main LH pinch hitter and spell Manny in LF against tough RH and Repko could spell Ethier in RF against tough lefties.  That makes the most sense.

I know this.  We are set with Timo Freaking Perez.  He’s a Freakin’ Gazelle.

Some people are saying that the Dodgers are a .500 team (when I say “some people” I don’t mean “informed baseball people”), which I think is just plain delusional.  I think sometimes Dodger fans fail to take into consideration that change is inevitable, and often, it is good.  Will everything be OK?  Seth Godin summed it up today by saying:

It’s natural to seek reassurance. Most of us want to believe that the choices we make will work out, that everything will be okay.

Artists and those that launch the untested, the new and the emotional (and I’d put marketers into all of these categories) wrestle with this need all the time. How can we proceed knowing that there’s a good chance that our actions will fail, that things might get worse, that everything won’t end up okay? In search of solace, we seek reassurance.

So people lie to us. So we lie to ourselves.

No, everything is not going to be okay. It never is. It isn’t okay now. Change, by definition, changes things. It makes some things better and some things worse. But everything is never okay.

Finding the bravery to shun faux reassurance is a critical step in producing important change. Once you free yourself from the need for perfect acceptance, it’s a lot easier to launch work that matters.

Will the Dodgers be OK?  We are so much in the middle of the Forest that we can’t see the trees, or is it we can’t see the Forest for the trees?  I will leaf that alone.  What I will say is that we often look at how a player performed last year and extrapolate that into the next.  What we fail to factor in is that we have a very young team and these guys often get better by leaps and bounds.  In some cases you can count on it.  I think we forget how far some of our young player have come, how much they have matured and how they will almost certainly continue down that same path. 

In the middle of the long, cold winter, I usually pick-up a copy of Lindy’s Fantasy Baseball(I never play it myself), because over the years, I have found that their takes are pretty close to the reality.  I don’t know for sure, but I think that they use a variety of statistical analysis as well as scouting resources to reach their conclusions.  At any rate, I have read them for many years and their accuracy rate is exceptional when predicting what players might do.  I thought I’d share a few of their predictions:

• Russell Martin is the 7th Highest Ranked Catcher in Baseball behind Soto, Posada, Wieters, McCann, Martinez and Mauer – no surprise there. He is rated ahead of Suzuki, Bengie Molina, Ryan Doumit, Yadier Molina,  Chris Iannetta and Mike Napoli.  I caught a lot of heat from some of you for ranking him that high, but you can see I’m not the only one!   (Projection:  .269/9 HR/58 RBI/470 AB)  Comments:  “He inexplicably morphed into Jason  Kendall with slightly more pop, slipping even in stolen bases, a category he once dominated.  He’ll either return to fantasy relevance or fade into oblivion this season.”
• James Loneyis the 15th Highest Rated First Baseman is Baseball ranked ahead of Chris Davis, Paul Konerko, Adam LaRoche, Jorge Cantu, Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado, Casey Kotchman and Aubrey Huff (Projection:  .281/18 HR/30 DBL/92 RBI) Comments:  “There’s a lack of sizzle and a whole lot of Mark Grace going on here.  A more critical peek at his numbers reveals Loney is becoming more patient (70 walks last season), suggesting a brighter future.  He’s due for a spike … don’t bet on an explosion.”
• Of course, the Dodgers don’t have anyone rated at 2B, but I do hope they give Blake DeWitt the opportunity.  If he and Carroll can’t cut it, then we can make a deal.  Second-basemen are a dime a dozen and that All-Star you all wanted back (Orlando Hudson) is only the 16th rated at his position (and he wants $9 mil a year?  HA!).
• Casey Blake is ranked #17 at 3B, right ahead of Casey McGhee, Andy LaRoche, Garrett Atkins, Jhonny Peralta, Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigington and Kevin Kouzmanoff.  (Projection:  .276/18 HR/ 76 RBI).  The words they use as “consistent” and “solid.”  Certainly, he ’s no star, but we could do worse.  
• Raffy Furcal is ranked the #14 SS and Lindys calls him “No longer an elite fantasy option, as injuries have robbed him of his speed and power.”  (Projection: .283/10 HR/51 RBI/15 SB)  If he can put up those numbers with a .360 OB%, we will be fine. “Hurry up Dee Gordon!”
• Ryan Braun is rated the #1 outfielder, but #2 is none other than our Matt Kemp (Projection: .302/35 DBL/8 TRIP/31 HR/105 RBI/38 SB).  Those are “elite” numbers.  Andre Ethier is rated #16 (Projection: .293/36 DBL/30 HR/102 RBI) and Manny Ramirez is #18 (Projection: .302/26 HR/86 RBI).  They say that they still believe “Ethier will win a batting title” and that “Manny still has an elite batting eye and isn’t done being relevant in our game.”  If that prediction holds up for our outfielders, the Dodgers should be very good offensively.  In fact, that should be baseballs best offensive outfield.
• When it comes to pitching, Lindys has Clayton Kershaw at #16, just ahead of Cliff Lee!  Chris Carpenter was #15.  Other pitchers ranked behind Kershaw are:  Vazquez, Cain, Beckett, Jimenez, Webb, Peavy, Shields and Lackey who was rated #25, just ahead of Chad Billingsley at #26.  (Projections:  Kershaw- 16-6/2.88 ERA /198 IP/156 H/210 K/1.24 WHIP; Billingsley – 14-11/3.72 ERA/202 IP/180 H/188 K/1.29 WHIP).  Here’s what they say about Clayton:  “He’s a still a work in progress, last summer adding a slider to compliment his mid-90’s fastball and all-world curveball.  Check out Fangraphs.com for more on his slider and put a check next to his name on your cheatsheet.  He’s going to be unstoppable in the very near future.”  Yeah, like maybe in 2010?  Billingsley was rated ahead of the likes of Baker, Garza, Rodriguerz, Lilly, Weaver, Dempster, Nolasco, Anderson, Oswalt, Burnett, Bucholz, Jurrjens, Danks, Jackson and Harden.  They regards the 2nd half of 2009 as a “hiccup.”  Hiroki Kuroda was ranked #49, ahead of Hudson, Kazmir, Maine, Sherzer, Saunders, Pineiro, Zambrano and Randy Wolf (who was #65, and they predict 10 wins with an ERA over 4.00 for him).  They project Kuroda at 11-8 with a 3.63 ERA/182 IP and ad WHIP of 1.20.  Of Kuroda they said “his underlying numbers are solid and the injuries were not arm-related.“  Vicente Padilla weighed in at #96 (not bad for a #4), just behind Jon Garland at #95.  They project him at 12-10 with a 4.33 ERA and 169 IP with a 1.43 WHIP.
• Which brings us to Jon Broxton, ranked #5 as a closer.  Here’s the crux of what they say about him (sounds like what I say):  “Perhaps a visit with a sports psychologist is in order…”  ‘Nuff said!  George Sherrill is rated #40 and Lindys thinks he could close more on the road, especially against LH’ers (where Brox has his issues).

So, while Lindy’s is not Bill James or Fangraphs, it’s still very useful, and I have found that their projections are quite accurate.  I think a lot of Dodger fans depreciate the value of a lot of our young players, as well as our role-players.  The 2010 Version of the LA Dodgers is destined to be VERY, VERY GOOD!  Now, depending upon what happens with the divorce, we could be buyers in August.  Get ready for a great season!  I see at leat 93 wins!

DODGER NEWS:

• Jon Weisman has an excellent post on the Dodgers lack of resources at this juncture.
• The Phillies have $130 million committed to 14 players in 2011, which means they may not be abale to sign Jason Werth.  Hummmm…
• The Dodgers could sign Noah Lowery as soon as NOW!

There is much debate among baseball professionals and fans regarding the benefit of taking multiple pitches during an at bat in order to drive up the pitch count of the starting pitcher and to see more types of pitches in order to be more productive later in the game.  However, it is well know that a batter’s batting average drops drastically when they get behind in the count. 

Lets’ look at the 7 returning Dodger starters and how they batted last year.

Loney has the best batting average for a specific count three times; Rameriz, Ethier and Kemp twice; and Martin once.  Martin has the worst batting average for a specific count five times; Blake twice; and Rameriz, Kemp, Furcal and Ethier once.

 The seven starter’s combined batting average is above their OBP when hitting at counts 2 – 0; 3 – 1; and 2 – 1. Six starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 2 – 0.  Five starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 3 – 1. Three starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 2 – 1.  So why must the batters take a pitch at these counts.  Certainly when a batter’s average on certain counts is above their OBP for the season they should be hitting.  Maybe taking pitches at these counts is one of the reasons that the Dodger batting average with RISP was so poor last year.

Six batters have an average below .200 when the count is 2 – 2.  Four batters have an average below .200 when the count is 0 – 2 or 1 – 2.  These batters should be more aggressive and tryvery hard not to let the count get to these levels.  Maybe taking extra strikes, that result in these counts, is one of the reasons that the Dodger batting average with RISP was so poor last year.

 Blake has an average below .200 when the count is either 1 – 0; or 0 – 1.  He obviously needs to take many pitches in order to become accustomed to the movement and speed of pitches. Martin even has an average below .200 when the count is 3 – 2.   Obviously Martin’s batting approached is completely screwed up.  He does have a batting average above .400 only when the count is 1 – 0; 2 – 0; and 3 – 1, so for him to take strikes is really insanity.

 In conclusion, each player handles pressure differently and adjusts their swing to the count and situation differently so a blind alliance to taking a lot of pitches is sophomoric.

Los Angeles – In what has to be somewhat of a surprise, the Dodgers made two major announcements today.  The first announcement has to do with the divorce proceedings of Frank and Jamie McCourt who agreed to a continuance of their May hearing:

The McCourt’s announced that they have resolved their personal issues and that Jamie will keep all personal property, vehicles, art and personal items.  She also agreed to a $100,000,000.00 payment (payable over 5 years at 6% interest) from Frank McCourt, and assumes her role as CEO of the Dodgers Dream Foundation which will be funded by a $8 million a year grant from the Dodgers.  In return, Frank McCourt gets sole ownership of the Dodgers and has agreed to hire all their sons as club executives. 

Next, Ned Colletti took the dais and said that this is a big burden off the Dodgers and made the following announcement:  “The Dodgers have just completed a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Mariners, who have fallen 26 games below .500. whereby  Chris Withrow, Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert, Casey Blake and  James McDonald have been traded to the Blue Jays for Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Felix Hernandez.  Hernandez has agreed to to a six-year/$125 million deal and Lee has agreed to a 4 year/$90 mil deal.  Our lineup will look like this right now:

1. Figgins  3B
2. Furcal SS
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Martin  C
7. Loney  1B
8. DeWitt 2B

Our Rotation now looks like this as we ready for the stretch run:

Hernandez, Lee, Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda.

Colletti continued:  “With the expiring contracts of Ramirez and Kuroda, we we able to take on more payroll since the ownership issue was resolved and our lenders opened their pockets again.  If we had made all the dope-fiend moves suggested on LaDodgerTalk.com, we would have never had the flexibility to pull this off.  Sure, we gave up a lot, but we are going to win this thing!   I’m glad I listened to Mark Timmons….”

Some people say I am too optimistic and that I always predict career years for the Dodgers, so I thought I’d post what I said last year.  This is from a February 16, 2009 post, which was BEFORE O-Dog and Manny were signed:

1B- James Loney is quietly becoming a force at 1B.  He will win a Gold Glove soon and should be a .300 hitter with 20 HR and 100 RBI.  That puts him near the top at his position.

2B- Blake DeWitt will be the official starter, but Mark Loretta will start against tough LH pitchers.  I predict that this platoon will produce a BA of .270/20 HR and 70 RBI from the #8 hole.

SS- If Rafael Furcal stays healthy, he is one of the top impact players in the game.

3B- Casey Blake provides a very important mental toughness which will help his young teammates.  The versatility of DeWitt (2B, 3B) and Blake (3B, 1B, LF, RF) allows Joe Torre to “rest”  Russell Martin at 3B on certain days.  Blake could also see some time in LF.

LF- Andre Ethier will be a year better and I project him at .300/25/100.  He is an excellent LF as well, with a very good arm.  He’s not as soft as he once was.

CF – Juan Pierre has to play here.  He’s not the greatest CF ever, but he covers more ground than Kemp and has more experience.  He needs to play there if Manny is not signed.

RF – Matt Kemp is possibly the offensive key to our season.  If he continues to improve, and realizes more of his potential (he reported with the pitchers and catchers to Spring Training), he will not be  just be the Bison, but he’ll also be the Monster.  I expect him to hit near .300 with 25-30 HR and 110 RBI from the Cleanup Spot.  He will also have about 15-20 Outfield Assists.

C-  This will be the year that Russell Martin distances himself from most other catchers in baseball.   His hitting and defense will be elevated, but most importantly, he will become the Dodgers captain.

OK, how did I do?  Loney was short of .300  and while he did have 90 RBI, his power didn’t yet amnifest itself, but I wasn’t far off.  O-Dog played 2B so I am returning to my prediction at 2B for DeWitt and Carroll.  Raffy had a bad year – I don’t know if it was injury related but it wasn’t good.  Blake was what he was.  I “underestimated”  Ethier and “overestimated” Martin.    My prediction on Kemp was pretty accurate.

So, where’s the beef?

In the same post I said:

This team is a lot better than most of you think, even without Manny!  For the record, if Manny doesn’t sign with us, it will be with the Yankees, which would make more of their outfielders available.  I still don’t see anyone beating the Dodgers offers to Manny because baseball expects to be hurting this year.  The Dodgers have sold half of the season tickets they projected for spring training and all the teams realize that with the economy more and more people will cut back on games and cut back on what they buy at the park.  You are kidding yourself if you think someone will pay Manny more than the Dodgers – certainly not the Giants!  One final thing.  If Manny doesn’t sign, we still can sign Orlando Hudson and put him at 2B, move Dewitt to 3B and platoon Blake and Pierre in the OF.  Just a thought…

You never know how things will play out, but I wasn’t too far off!

Last off-season, I predicted that it would not be Manny who made the team better, but rather “the kids.” 

Little did I know what would happen to Manny and how he would later struggle.  If the Manny Ramirez of 2008 had played in 2009, the Dodgers might still be shaking the confetti out of their shoes, because the kids made huge strides. 

Well, some did (Kershaw, Kemp, Ethier), some stayed the same (Loney, Broxton) and some regressed (Martin and Billingsley).  I am here to once again submit that Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson would not make us World Series Champs in 2010, but again, it on the kids – Kemp and Loney and Kershaw have to keep marching toward greatness.  Billingsley and Martin have to return to form and Broxton and Loney need to crank it up another notch. 

I believe we have at least four good starting pitchers on our team, but what might win it for us is a late spring or trade deadline deal.  Come July, we may have to decide if we want to trade Chris Withrow, Ivan DeJesus, Jr.  and Andrew Lambo for someones Ace!  Of course, that depends upon a lot of factors, including how those players are doing, but we have the horses to do a deal. 

The Dodgers didn’t want to pay Randy Wolf, who is a guy who averages 148 IP  a year and has a career 4.13 ERA, a long-term deal and they didn’t want to get stuck paying him even $9 mil a year.  There were time last year when Randy Wolf was our best pitcher, but in 2010, he could just as easily be our #5 or worse yet, injured!  If Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda and Haeger can pitch 800 innings, Randy Wolf will be a distant memory.

The Mets who are intent on spending money, recently had their GM recently say that their starting rotation would be Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and Jonathon Niese.  Santana has arm issues and the rest hardly strike fear into anyone’s hearts.  I think WE can do better, by standing pat for the time being.  Dodger fans are crying “Wolf” but come July, they may find they have been out-foxed!  Sometimes the best moves you make are the ones you don’t. 

MORE NEWS:

Interesting List of Top Dodger Prospects by John Sickels.  Here’s a quote from the post:

The Dodgers are strong on the pitching side: Martin and Miller could both be B+ guys a year from now, maybe even an A- if their command really sharpens up. Withrow could rank as the number one prospect ahead of Dee Gordon if you prefer pitching to hitting. His ceiling is terrific, although I’d like to see his walk rate come down. He has Homer Bailey-like risk if they rush him too fast. Elbert’s stuff is right up there with the other pitchers, but there are enough chinks in his armor (command, health history) to keep his grade slightly lower in my mind. I’m probably higher on Gould than some folks, but I see him in the same mold as the others if he develops properly. Other live arms such as Jansen, Eovaldi, Webster, and Wallach all have significant potential but enough doubts or lack of data right now to keep their ratings in the C+ range.

The hitters are led by the electric Dee Gordon, who will need some time to put his game together but has big upside. Possible comp: Rafael Furcal, circa 2000-2006. DeJesus doesn’t have the same ceiling but still has a chance to be a very useful player if his leg is OK. I haven’t given up on Lambo yet, not at age 21.

The hitting in beyond that is thin: there is a mixture of tools guys and polish guys, but they all have questionmarks of one sort of another. Adding some additional impact hitting depth for the system seems like a good idea; we’ll have to see if they address that in the 2010 draft.

Trades and graduations have thinned the system out, but overall I think Logan White and his staff do a fine job and the potential for a quick recharge seems good to me.

Bill Shaikin of The LA Times has an interview with Dennis Mannion, the Dodgers President & Big Kahuna.  While I am not one to believe everything I read, I believe most (maybe all) of what he said.  Here’s one quote I found interesting:

“Our baseball and business decisions have not been impacted by the proceedings. Neither [General Manager] Ned [Colletti] nor I have been asked by anyone to limit long-term liabilities.”

Here’s what wasn’t said:  “We have a budget, and like most other businesses, we cannot go over that budget.  PERIOD!  Within that budget, we are free to do whatever we think makes sense, but we cannot exceed it.”

I may have a different point of view on this than some people, because in business I am used to operating within the confines of a budget.  So while I wish the Dodgers would spend $150 mil on payroll, I believe that $100 mil is the cap this year and the Dodgers really cannot spend until they deal with the arbitration cases or re-sign them long-term.  That, I believe, is the long and short of it!

Then, there was this exchange at the end:

Is there anything other than action in your mind that is going to be able to convince fans that this organization is not limited by severe cost controls, given all the things we’ve talked about?

I think actions are the only way to speak to it.

Are you convinced you’ll be able to show enough action soon?

I would hope so.

Here’s the deal – according to the article, the Dodgers didn’t make money last year.  They just about “broke even.”  I think the economy played more of a role than “the divorce.”  As the economy rebounds and the Dodgers generate more revenue, you will see a higher payroll.  Just my opinion…

I still foresee a VERY BRIGHT year in 2010 for the Dodgers.  A lot of good things have to happen, be we probably have the best outfield in baseball.  It’s possible that we could see 100 HR from the trio of Manny, Matt and Andre.  We have lots of young arms and they will be given every opportunity to “seize the day.”  We have players like Xavier Paul, Chin-lung Hu, Scott Elbert, AJ Ellis, Ronald Belisario, Ramnon Troncoso, Corey Wade, Jason Repko, Josh Lindblom and many others who will be given opportunities to step up.

You can see the glass as half-empty - I see it as “half-full”… and filling…

Here’s what I see with our offense for next season:

1. Furcal  SS -  Raffy rebounds (it is an “even” year) and has his career year with a .303 BA, .381 OB% and 126 Runs Scored, even though he only steels 26 bases
2. Martin C- Perfect #2 hitter rebounds with a .279 BA to go with .388 OB%
3. Loney 1B – Breakout year at 1B with 22 HR. 106 RBI and a .316 BA
4. Kemp CF – Monster year with MVP like numbers - .312 BA, 38 HR and 119 RBI
5. Manny LF – Continues to be a very good player, not not “elite-class” – .299 BA, 27 HR, 96 RBI
6. Ethier RF – A nice year, but not quite as good as 2009 – .274 BA 27 HR and 93 RBI
7. Blake 3B – Solid, but not great with a .267 BA, 18 HR and 78 RBI
8. DeWitt 2B – Nice year with a .258 BA to go with 19 HR and 67 RBI

It’s rare when most players on a team have good years, but I think the numbers I have assigned each player are certainly within their capability!

Feel free to agree… or not!

I also think Doug Mientkiewicz and Jamey Carroll will make a nice L-R pinch-hitting tandem, although neither has much power.  Angel Berroa is insurance in case the Reds wanted Hu in the alleged Harang deal, which is near dead according to Dylan Hernandez of The LA Times.  In the same article he quotes Ned Colletti as saying that Jon Link (acquired in the Pierre deal) is the closest to major league ready:

Of the two pitchers the Dodgers acquired from the Chicago White Sox to complete the Juan Pierre trade, Colletti said 25-year-old reliever Jon Link was the closest to being major-league-ready.

“He has a chance to be on our club this year,” he said.

Link saved 13 games and had a 3.99 earned-run average in 48 relief appearances for triple-A Charlotte last season. The Dodgers also received John Ely in the deal. Ely, 23, was 14-2 with a 2.82 ERA for double-A Birmingham last season.

Colletti said the Dodgers remain interested in re-signing backup catcher Brad Ausmus, but if they fail to do so, they would feel comfortable with A.J. Ellis in that role.

ADRIAN BELTRE

I was asked about Adrian Beltre yesterday on the other thread and while I do not think it is likely the Dodgers will sign him, I think he would be a huge upgrade at 3B.  First, let’s compare stats:

These stats are based upon playing 162 games a year.  At age 36, Casey Blake has 6.5 years of major league service.  Adrian Beltre at age 30 has 10.3 years of major league experience.  Adrian had some serious injuries last year, but at age 30, should be in his prime.  We have to expect a decline for Blake at as 36.  Beltre is a huge defensive upgrade at 3B (Blake was a surprise there last year, however).  

However, the main reason I want Beltre is “JUST A GUT FEELING THAT A RETURN TO THE DODGERS WOULD CATAPULT HIM TO AN ALL-STAR YEAR!”  

Totally rational!

I am sick of talking about the divorce proceedings, so you won’t find much about it here – you know where to look.  However, I do want to address the Free Pass Baseball Fans are giving Arte Moreno while castigating Frank McCourt.   The Angels lost two of their most important free agents – Figgins and Lackey – both of whom they wanted back.  Vlad is likely to walk and the Angels payroll is reported to need to stay around $100,000,000 and yet Moreno is hailed as a genius and McCourt is a miserly idiot. 

Here’s the long and short of it – From day one some people have had a bad opinion about Frank, and anything done by him was proof that he was a horrible owner.  It is sort of like doing your taxes by filling in the bottom line first.  By all accounts, the Dodgers payroll will be $100 million this year.  So will the Angels.   We have youngsters who I believe will step up even more than last year.  Contrary to what you think, the Dodgers prospects are as bright as the Angels. .. probably brighter!  Are the Dodgers cash strapped?  Yes!  Are other teams?  Absolutely!

Frank McCourt isn’t the second coming, but he’s not what many of you make him out to be.  However, due to their opinion of McCourt, some pile on due to the divorce.  Manny Ramirez was not the key to the Dodgers last year.  It was the youngsters.   The Dodgers were forced into signing Manny by their fans last year.  It was $25 mil wasted!  If we would have saved that $25 mil, we might be sitting on Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay right about now.  It is what it is – we have Manny and we don’t have Lee or Halladay, but we have more young power arms than any team in baseball.  We have Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loneyand Russ Martin – 4 young players who figure to get a lot better (yeah, I think Martin WILL bounce back – he’s too good).  How that plays out remains to be seen, but I think you will be surprised.  I also think that Blake DeWitt will surprise us.   I also believe Clayton and Chad will pitch like Aces. 

We won 94 games last year in the regular season after many fans said the Dodgers would be a sub-.500 team without Manny!  Then you say “Yeah, they won’t 94 games BUT….”  No buts!  The Dodgers won 94 games and I expect at least the same next year.  Watch and learn!  Remember on thing:  Frank McCourt knows that he has to put a good product on the field or he will lose more money than he could ever save by not paying players.  He is painfully aware of that – so is Dennis Mannion and the rest of the operations people.  If you think the Dodgers will try and put a crappy product on the field, you are sadly mistaken.  I understand why the Dodgers didn’t sign Wolf or Hudson and why they didn’t offer them arbitration.  It wasn’t the bonuses they had to pay to draft picks – it was because they were afraid the players would accept arbitration.  You may think otherwise, and you are free to do that, but I am one who thinks there was a good chance one or both players would have accepted.  Why?  It’s about the money!  I formed that opinion by talking to a lot of people close to the team, and it’s just my opinion.

You will see the Dodgers sign some players, but if you all hadn’t cried for Manny last year, we’d have our Ace!  Crying is not becoming to Dodger fans!   It’s downright nauseating to me.

UPDATE:

I researched Forbes rankings of the MLB teams and these are their numbers.

You can see that the Dodgers were operating with almost $20 mil negative operating income.  Frank McCourt paid more than $200 million MORE for the Dodgers than Moreno paid for the Angels, and yet the Dodgers are arguably better than the Angels under Franks watch.  Moreno has more than doubled the valve of the Angels, while McCourt has not quite doubled the value of the Dodgers.  It is easier to double a business the lower the initial income.  Their operating incomes are both near 3%, but McCourt has put tens of millions more into the stadium and spring training facilities than Moreno.

OK, like I promised, here is  the video of the interview I did with Logan White and De Jon Watson on Wednesday, December 9th at the Winter Meetings.

We had to break it down into two video files because of the length.  I think you can sense their excitement and enthusiasm for the farm system and the youngsters.  When I finished, I felt very confident in the future.

The Baseball Winter Meetings are being held in Indianapolis beginning on Monday, December 7th thru Thursday, December 10th.  While MLB would not issue me a credential, I will be there and hopefully get lucky.   The only thing that credentials really do is get you inside the interview room when there are news conferences. I can still walk all over the hotel where everything is going on without a problem and report on all that’s going on. Usually, agents or GMs just stop in the hallways and talk to people and I will be right there.  I have one purpose at these meetings – I would like to get a feel of what is really happening with the Dodgers… and I will! 

Ken made a good point yesterday that maybe the Dodgers had a verbal agreement with Wolf and Hudson that they would not offer them arbitration.  That could be a possibility.  I’ll try and find out.  Besides, who should the Dodgers really try and get?   Halladay?  Lackey?  Martinez?  Wolf?  It would take a lot to get Lackey or Halladay and either one is a prospect for arm and/or injury issues.  I am almost of the opinion that we sign Padilla andor Wolf IFthe market is soft and they don’t get better deals elsewhere.  Then, try and get some pitchers line Noach Lowery, Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, et al for insurance.

I’d sooner see the Dodgers get a power hitter for 2B than spend to get Halladay or Lackey.  I may be crazy, but I would not be afraid to go into the season with Kershaw our #1, Billingsley and Kuroda battling for #2 and Haeger as our #5.  Then, let Elbert, McDonald, Troncoso, Lindblom and other battle for the #4 spot.  Something good will come out of that bunch.  You have to bank on internal growth by your young players.  Shoot, I wouldn’t mind a platoon of Jamie Carroll and Blake DeWitt at 2B or maybe try Adrian Beltre at 2B – he’s an excellent athlete.  Think about it!  We’d have power at the position.

I am most concerned about locking up Kemp, Ethier, Kersahw and Billingsley long term.  Are the Dodgers willing to do that?  We have a plethora of pitching prospects who are a yera or so away – trading for a vet who could have arms issue is felony stupid – witness the Jason Schmidt Debacle.

At any rate, I’ll be at the meeting and I’ll be reporting what I see and hear – or maybe I’ll report half of what I see and none of what I hear…

Answer:  One is a bottom-dwelling garbage-eater and the other is a fish!

There's Something Fishy Here!

Get used to it.  The Dodgers are now officially bottom-dwelling, garbage-eaters.  They love to eat up cheap, journeyman-like players who may not have much upside but are cheap, cheap, cheap.  Warm bodies to stock AAA… and maybe, if a Randy Wolf or Adrian Beltre is not signed by March, the Dodgers will try to get them on the cheap as well. 

From the Class of Baseball to Bottom-Dwelling Garbage Eaters. 

Thank your Frank McCourt!

It may come as a surprise to you, I am not all gloom and doom – I actually think the Dodgers will be better in 2010 than we were in 2009.  It’s beyond that which worries me.  I don’t think that even Jamie could screw up next year.  Frank is obviously not allowing the system to be re-stocked.  Draft picks are out.  International signings?  Forget-about-it!  However,   the Dodgers will be better next year for five (5) reasons:

1. Manny is playing for a new contract.  To those who think he has lost it:  you have never been more wrong!
2. Kemp, Ethier and Loney will be a year more mature and even better than last year.
3. Russell Martin is playing for his career and his pride.  Watch for a big rebound.
4. Our young pitching will take a big stride forward next year, led by Opening Day Starter Clayton Kershaw.  Broxton may master a change up, and the real Chad Billingsley will return.
5. Experience will hold the day.

I am not saying “World Series,” but the Dodgers will be better and then, who knows what can happen. 

The only problem is that I feel like I have vomited in my mouth whenever I think of the name McCourt – talk about “acid reflux!”

Just in case you haven’t figured it out, attendance at Dodger Stadium is not the only source of income for the Dodgers.  While their have attendance has been stellar,

Hu's on the team

 most other teams  have seen substantial declines in attendance, which means that the Dodgers get a smaller cut of the gate and concessions.  It is not clear what the amount of the decline is to me, but I estimate it at around $15 to $20 million a year.  Couple that with MLB Apparel and Memorabilia sales declines and the Dodgers could be losing as much as $20 to $25 million a year in revenue as a result of the recession.  It may get better next year.  It may not.  Some teams (can you say Cincinnati Reds?) are looking to dump payroll.  The Dodgers are looking to stay level or even drop payroll.  I have an idea:

How about Juan Pierre, James McDonald, Ivan DeJesus, Jr., and Blake DeWitt to the Reds for either Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips?  Up-shoot:  The Reds save $10 mil a year and get some prospects (along with a  leadoff hitter – Dusty Baker loves Pierre) and the Dodgers spend only an extra $10 mil to get an “inning eater” pitcher and a 2B.  Next, the Dodgers should offer Hudson and Wolf arbitration, making it clear to Hudson that Phillips is the 2B, and if he won his arbitration case he’d be a backup.  Hudson would decline arbitration, but Wolf could accept.  That’s fine!

Dole out the raises to the youngsters and the Dodgers are done!  Our rotation would look something like this:

1. Kershaw
2. Billingsley
3. Kuroda
4. Arroyo/Harang
5. Wolf or Heager

Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  CF
4. Manny  LF
5. Ethier  RF
6. Phillips  2B
7. Loney  1B
8. Blake 3B

I could live with that!  Harang makes $11.5 mil next year and Arroyo makes $11 mil, so pick ‘em.  You never know – they could be a dud or they could be a Godsend!  Sometimes you have to roll the dice.  Castro is headed to Philly and Hu is the logical backup infielder.  Xavier Paul, Jason Repko and Jamie Hoffman are candidates for two outfield spots.  Ausmus may or may not play for a million next year, but if he doesn’t Ellis or another bargain Free Agent will be available. 

The Dodgers should be able to field an excellent team for under (or around) $100 million.  Harang and Arroyo’s average years are not what I expect.  I would hope for a “carrer year” for whichever one come to LA.  You gotta’ believe!  The “kids” will be year better next and Martin and Loney will “breakout.”  Believe it!

GoodNews/BadNews:

• Bud Selig will be commissioner at least 3 more seasons.
• The Marlins are shopping Josh Johnson… Hummmmmm, I may have to revise my thinking…