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Opening Day Roster Initial Prediction for 2010

Opening Day Roster Initial Prediction for 2010

Starting Pitching ($22,800,000):

  1. Kershaw (He will pitch great but with a losing record) $425K
  2. Billingsley (He will figure “IT” out this year) $3,850,000
  3. Padilla (Will surprise us this year) $5,025,000
  4. Kuroda (50% probability of injury) $13,000,000
  5. Stults (Will continue to pitch very erratically until Torre gives up on him) $500K

Relievers ($11,550,000):

  1. Broxton (Will have an erratic year with some Great weeks) $4 mil
  2. Kuo (Will have a great year unless Torre overuses him) $950K
  3. Troncoso (Will probably have a sore arm in 2010) $460K
  4. Sherrill (Will have an average year) $4.5 mil
  5. Monasterios (Mop up guy for 2010 preparing for a good 2011 year) $410K
  6. Weaver – (Swing Man will have a below average year/may be released) $750K
  7. Heager – (Relieving will improve his game until he becomes a Starter) $430K

Others on 40 man Roster:

  1. Elbert – (AAA) MLB Starter in waiting
  2. McDonald – (AAA) MLB Starter in waiting
  3. Link – AAA
  4. Wade – AAA
  5. Belisario – Released or traded
  6. Schlitling – Sept Call up
  7. Leach – Sept Call up
  8. Jensen – Sept Call up
  9. Guerra – AA
  10. Zerpa – Released under Rule 5 rules

Position Players ($38,410,000):

  1. Ellis (Will play good enough until Martin gets “IT”) $430K
  2. Loney (2010 better than Wes Parker’s best year) $3.1 mil
  3. DeWitt (Will play erratically until he finally uses the whole field) $410K
  4. Furcal (Will have an above average year) $8.5 mil
  5. Blake (Will have an average year with many minor injuries) $6 mil
  6. Rameriz (Will have an erratic year) $10 mil
  7. Kemp (Women weaken legs – Will play bad at home & good on the road) $4 mil
  8. Either (Same as 2009) $6 mil

Bench Players ($4,375,000):

  1. Ausmus (Will be passed by Ellis and converted to Coach) $850K
  2. Carroll (Will play well & often but not worth the price) $1.35 mil
  3. Belliard (Will be traded in mid-year) $825K
  4. Anderson OF & 1B (Will be better than Sweeney) $550K
  5. Johnson (Will play good enough until injured) $800K

Others on 40 man Roster ($5,050,000):

  1. Martin – (Will struggle as the coaches attempt to correct his swing) $5.05 mil
  2. Repko – Waived to create roster spot for Anderson
  3. May – AAA
  4. Robinson – AAA
  5. DeJesus – AA
  6. Paul – AAA until he replaces Johnson
  7. Hu – AAA until he replaces Belliard

Written by Ken

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The Big Chill

The Big Chill

For those of you that have complained about the Dodgers opening the season in Pittsburg, think again.  During part of World War II, all of the MLB teams were required to abandon the Grapefruit League and the warming air of the Southwest, and hold spring training in cities located above the Mason-Dixon Line.  Six of the then 16 MLB teams held spring training in Indiana and formed the short lived “Limestone League”. Only some of these teams actually were able to train in nice weather. You can presume that those teams chose to play in a college town whose university had a field house.

The Limestone League included teams that held spring training in the following “metropolitan” areas:

  • Reds – Bloomington, IN -1943-1945
  • Tigers – Evansville, IN -1943-1945
  • White Sox – French Lick, IN – 1943-1944; Terre Haute – 1945
  • Cubs – French Lick, IN – 1943-1945
  • Indians – Lafayette, IN – 1943–1945
  • Pirates – Muncie, IN – 1943–1945

Although the Cubs played in the World Series in 1945, none of these 6 teams won the World Series during those 3 years.

As a side note, two teams actually chose to hold spring training in Indiana in lieu of going to an area with a warm climate:

  • Browns – French Lick, IN – 1902
  • Cardinals – West Baden, IN – 1911 (10 miles from French Lick)

Currently there are 15 teams holding spring training in the State of Florida, constituting the Grapefruit league, and 15 teams holding spring training in the State of Arizona, constituting the Cactus League, (including 2 in Tucson). Strangely, during the last 20 years (19 World Series), 16 of the World Series winners held their spring training in Florida as part of the Grapefruit League; 2 winners held spring training in Tucson and only 1 winner held spring training in Phoenix (the Los Angeles Angels) of the Cactus League.

Based upon the above “stats” Florida has it hands down over Phoenix as the place to hold spring training and Phoenix appears to be only slightly better than French Lick, Indiana, as a place to hold spring training! It appears that even though Phoenix is a warm place it has put a chill on the ability of the teams in the Cactus league to win the World Series.

Mark – If you were born 90 years ago you could have enjoyed your spring vacations in Indiana!

–Written by Ken

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The Lawsuit

The Lawsuit

Despite the wishes of many I have decided to write an in depth article about THE “Lawsuit”. From time to time lawsuits with significant and/or minor issues are filed between baseball team owners, or between fans and their favorite team. Some of these lawsuits will affect one local team and others will affect all of major league baseball. One lawsuit has been filed recently that might have significant, lasting and broad effects upon all of baseball.

That law suit is John Coomer v. Kansas City Royals Baseball Corporation, Case No. 1016-CV04073, Filed February 8, 2010. The causes of action are Negligence and Battery.

According to Mr. Coomer’s petition, he purchased a premium ticket to the Royals’ game, against the Tigers, on September 8, 2009 and sat a mere 6 rows behind the third base dugout. The Royals’ mascot “Sluggerrr” undertook his task of shooting steaming hotdogs, and their buns, into the stands with his air gun.

Just like a hot-dogging sniper “Sluggerrr” was standing atop the third base dugout without any protection. However, the fans had no protection either. Obviously the baseball fans who sit just six rows behind the third-base dugout at Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium know that there is a chance that they must be aware of, and might have to dodge a few foul balls during the game. Little did Mr. Coomer know that he would have to protect himself against steaming hotdog projectiles being propelled at a high speed into his personal space.

“Sluggerrr” then put down his air gun and commenced to throwing the hot dog projectiles into the stands, including one that he threw behind his back. This misguided missile, struck Mr. Coomer in his left eye. Mr. Coomer claims that the Mascot “lost control of his throw or was reckless with his throw, and threw the hotdog directly into the Plaintiff.”

Mr. Coomer alleges that the wayward wiener caused him to have a detached retina and that as a result cataracts have developed in his left eye. He was required to undergo two eye surgeries to correct these problems. Mr. Coomer also claims that he has suffered permanent impairment to his vision and is now at an increased risk of disabling eye problems in the future.

In addition to seeking restitution of $25,000 for medical expenses that he incurred, Coomer is also seeking damages for the team’s failure to adequately train its’ mascot on the proper method of throwing hot dogs into the stands at Kauffman Stadium.

Of course the plaintiff is a resident of Kansas so this case might have something to do with the long held bitterness between Kansas and Missouri residents that began around the time of the Civil War. Or he may just have some type of phobia against Mascots like “Sluggerrr” who are allowed to behave like militia with their hotdog propelling air guns.

However, we should also be concerned that some California trained judge may hear this case and hold for Mr. Coomer on all causes of action and impose a new standard of care for Mascots. Why not? Does the back of your ticket expressly warn you to be aware of flying hotdogs? You may have assumed the risk of being hit with a baseball when you purchased a ticket, but a hotdog?

What about the Vegans? Don’t they have a Right of Privacy to not have slaughtered remains of a pig, cow, turkey, and/or chicken propelled uninvited into their area of seating?

Maybe the Judge will not just hold for Mr. Coomer, but will also turn this matter into a class action lawsuit for all of us fans and order the Royals, and any other team propelling missiles into the stands, to provide protective eye ware free of charge to all persons in attendance. - Written by Ken

 DODGER NEWS:

  • Dylan Hernandez writes about Russ Martin and a Return to Glory (where have we heard that?)
  • Hernandez also writes about Matt Kemp’s new found fame
  • In both articles you have to be impressesd with how serious Kemp and Martin are about thier workouts.  If Kermp can improve and Martin can return to his best season, LOOKOUT!
  • TJ Simers Slimes Frank McCourt
  • Jon Weisman is a good read.

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Baseball in Los Angeles with a Wealthy Owner

Baseball in Los Angeles with a Wealthy Owner

Twenty- six miles across the sea

Santa Catalina is a-waitin’ for me

Santa Catalina, the island of spring training,

spring training, spring training, spring training

The Cubs in Catalina

Some of the best baseball ever played in Los Angeles was due to the efforts of a man and his wife who spent money on their team and its facilities while investing in commercial and residential real estate. Yes, I am talking about the Wrigley family.

Several teams played in Los Angeles and nearby cities as long ago as the 1880s. The cities of Pasadena and Long Beach were early hotbeds of baseball, and in 1911 the Boston Red Sox held their spring training camp in Redondo Beach, then a resort and recreation area for Southern California’s rapidly expanding population. By 1910, spring training was a formalized institution, with most MLB teams establishing facilities east of the Mississippi and many teams joining the new Grapefruit League.

William K. Wrigley, Jr., the chewing-gum magnate, purchased a significant interest in the Chicago Cubs in 1915. The Chicago Cubs have a long history of training in Southern California including Los Angeles (1903-04, 1948-1949), Santa Monica (1905); Pasadena, (1917-1921); Catalina Island (1922-1942, 1946-1947, 1950-1951); and Long Beach (1966). The Chicago Cubs have made it to the World Series 10 times in their long history. A total of five times prior to holding spring training on Catalina island, five times after beginning the Catalina Island spring training era, and zero times since permanently leaving Catalina and moving to the Phoenix area in the early 50s.

Catalina Island, located 26 miles outside of Los Angeles, became a majority investment of Cubs owner William Wrigley Jr. in 1919. Mr. Wrigley constructed a Wrigley field dimensional duplicate ballpark and a clubhouse on the island for the Cubs as their spring training facility. The old Cub clubhouse still exists today and is part of the Catalina County Club. His former home on Catalina Island now is a high-end bed and breakfast called the Inn on Mt. Ada.

In 1914, Mr. Wrigley purchased for his wife, Ada, a home, with adjacent gardens, on “Millionaires Row” in Pasadena so that she could watch the Rose Parade in comfort. Their former home is now the headquarters of the Tournament of Roses.

Tournament House

Many years later, Mr. Wrigley built the Wrigley Mansion as a 50th wedding anniversary gift for his wife, near the Arizona Biltmore, a hotel Mr. Wrigley once owned. The Wrigley’s winter cottage was a modest house, covering only 16,850 square feet, with 24 rooms and 17 bathrooms. It was appropriately named “La Colina Solana” – the sunny hill. It affords dramatic views of the Valley of the Sun, downtown Phoenix, and nearby Camelback mountain.

Mr. Wrigley purchased the Los Angeles Angels of the Pacific Coast League in 1921 and in 1925; their west coast Wrigley Field was opened in a then nice neighborhood, South Central Los Angeles. The park was designed to be similar to the Chicago Wrigley Field, but with only 20,500 seats. After training on Catalina Island for several weeks the Cubs would often travel to Los Angeles and play spring training games against local competition, including Mr. Wrigley’s Los Angeles Angels, and periodically a MLB team would travel to Los Angeles for a series of games.

During the first half of the 20th Century, one of the main attractions in Los Angeles, after spring training, was the baseball games played in the legendary Pacific Coast League. In the opinion of many, it was a third major league, with its own traditions and records. There were no MLB teams in the west, and some players actually turned down major-league offers because they would receive a higher salary in the PCL. Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams played a season for their hometown teams. In 1952, the PCL was temporarily given AAAA status, thus raising it above farm league status and protecting their players from the major league draft.

In the Angels’ fifty-five year history, they were one of the most successful Pacific Coast League franchises, winning titles in 1905, 1907, 1908, 1916, 1918, 1926, 1933, 1934, 1938, 1943, 1947, and 1956. They actually won over 1000 games in the decade of the 30’s.

The team was called “Yankees-West,” and dominated the league into the 1950’s. The 1934 team had a record of 137-50 (.733), almost 30 games ahead of the Seals, led by Joe DiMaggio. Over the years the team featured players like Tommy Lasorda, Sparky Anderson, and Gene Mauch. In 1956, the Angels won the pennant with what many baseball historians consider to be the greatest minor league team ever built.

Then in 1957, Phil Wrigley sold both the team and Wrigley Field to Walter O’Malley for $3,000,000 and the rights to the Dodgers’ Texas League franchise in Fort Worth. O’Malley reassured PCL directors that the Angels would continue as part of the Pacific Coast League, but rumors spread quickly that he was considering moving the Dodgers out of old Ebbets Field to Los Angeles. O’Malley’s purchasing of the Angels and their stadium gave him territorial rights to the Los Angeles area.

The Dodgers finally moved to Los Angeles in 1958, and since the fans choose the Dodgers over the Angels, a “minor league team”, the Angels’ franchise was moved to Spokane in order to eliminate competition; I mean to find a new fan base. The former Angels’ team stayed in Spokane until 1972, and then was moved to Albuquerque. The Albuquerque Dukes then moved in 2000, and are now the Portland Beavers, a Padre AAA team. – Written by Ken

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What Ever Happened to Joe Isuzu?

What Ever Happened to Joe Isuzu?

Written by Ken (“the views expressed herein are not necessarily the opinions of yada, yada, yada” – Legal Disclaimer)

Many years ago Joe Isuzu appeared in several commercials, graduated to a sit com, and then slowly faded away. Recently, Joe Torre also graduated from his Big Elow commercials to cameo appearances in several television series. In this parallel universe it may be time for him to also slowly fade away. Ken, and why do you say this?

I use the Joe Isuzu comparison because Joe Torre appears to be managing the Dodgers like Toyota is managing their car quality and production. From now on I may just call Joe Torre – Joe Toyota.

I am tired of watching Joe Toyota’s accelerator stick causing certain position players to not have enough off days during the season and then crashing in October. In 2010, Blake, Ramirez, Martin and Furcal need more days parked in the garage then in prior years. Joe Toyota, fix your accelerator and allow these position players to pace themselves at an appropriate speed so that they will have the gas left to hit above the Mendoza line in October. Some of the young players only need a few days off to change their oil. However, when observing the age of a car and the more specialized the use of a car, any good mechanic will implement an appropriate preventive maintenance program. Apply the brakes to certain players and give them more rest days so that they can properly recharge their batteries.

I am tired of watching Joe Toyota’s accelerator stick causing him to leave pitchers on the mound like the second coming of Grady Little. It did not take a rocket scientist to see that for several months last year Billingsley had physical, and possibly mental, endurance issues and hit the wall 100 minutes into the game regardless of how many pitches he threw, just like the limitations of the battery of an electric car. If Joe Toyota does not know how to recharge Billingley’s battery, then Joe Toyota should not drive Billingsley in a direction that will cause the battery to die before he returns home (reaches the 6th inning).

I am tired of watching Joe Toyota’s accelerator stick causing him to treat Broxton’s rocket engine like a 4 cylinder engine that can be driven everyday on a 100 mile commute. Joe Toyota, you must know when to apply the brakes. It did not take a rocket scientist to see that Broxtonrarely had any skills in the second inning of a game, after resting for 3 or more days, or pitching three days in a row. You just can not start a rocket engine every day or let it sit for four days in a row and expect it to operate properly for the entire year. I am tired of watching Joe Toyota’s accelerator stick causing him to leave hitters in the game when they refuse to swing at strikes, refuse to hit the ball the other way, and then pull an outside pitch to third base resulting in a ground-ball that starts a double play or kills a rally. Joe Toyota, when are you going to apply the brakes, order the player sent to the shop, and put them up on the rack for a detailed skills inspection?

If the Joe Toyota’s managerial performance is not changed by Cinco de Mayo, then I suggest the following recall:

1. Convert “Bob” to another special assistant to the GM and let him travel 5 days a week and visit the Dodger minor league teams,
2. Let Ausmus call the game and give the signs to the catcher when he is not playing. (Honeycutt can concentrate on teaching the pitchers how to pitch)
3. Let Mattingly give signs to the base coaches when the Dodgers are hitting (This will assist management in determining whether he actually is a viable managerial candidate), and
4. Let Torre concentrate on motivating the players and give them a safe environment.

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WANNBE A GM –  OR A GM WANNABE (THINKING OUTSIDE THE BOX)

WANNBE A GM – OR A GM WANNABE (THINKING OUTSIDE THE BOX)

The Dodger roster is finally coming together and now the discussions are changing from where is the rest of the team to why did they sign these slugs.  For the 2010 season the Dodger management, more than ever, must attempt to simultaneously win the NL West, delay the major league start dates of the future prospects (and their higher salaries), and have a fresh batch of players ready to graduate from the minors to the majors in case any of the players on the 25 man roster go on the DL for any significant length of time.  This is no small task to simultaneously accomplish these, and possibly other, partially contradictory objectives.

Most of us are of the opinion that the Dodger management is behaving as if without trading a player like Sherrill, the Dodgers do not have the budget, or the prospects, to go out and find replacements during the 2010 season.  Supporting this view is the Dodgers stockpiling of veterans on the 25 man bench, has beens in AAA, and prospects in AAA and AA.

In my opinion this is the correct approach for the 2010 season.  One factor is the increasing salary of the Dodger’s young stars.  Even with Manny, Kuroda, Padilla, and a few others probably not coming back for 2011 or 2012, the Dodger projected player salaries for those two future years is already more than $80 mil. With a 2011 team salary of $85 mil that is missing at least 2 starter pitchers, 1-2 position players, and several bench players, I conclude that the Dodger’s organizational Budget and Payroll is going to be a major issue for several years. 

Therefore, the Dodgers can no longer afford to sign multiple free agents.  Now they must develop the young players.  This approach may cause consternation among those of us that hope for a World Series title this decade. The current economic reality is the new reality and I for one will not be an ostrich and pretend otherwise.  (I am not a Politician) Maybe we can hope for another season with players who play most of the season in the zone like 1988.  Who will rise to the top this year?  Will the Coaches allow the players to pace themselves in 2010?  Will the pitchers learn how to trust their stuff, use the same correct pitching motion more than 50 percent of the time, and will the starters be forced to maintain a level of endurance that is necessary for them to actually make more than 90 pitches in a game?

Considering the Dodger’s unfunded future payroll obligations I am content with the following pitching plan for 2010:

Starting Pitching

  1. Billingsley
  2. Kershaw
  3. Kuroda
  4. Padilla
  5. Stults

Long Relief

  1. Weaver (Add to 40-man roster at the end of spring training)
    1. Heager
    2. Monasterios or Zerpa (Waive one of them at the end of spring training)

Short Relief

  1. Broxton
  2. Sherrill  (Candidate for a Trade)
  3. Belisario
  4. Kuo

Starters building innings at AAA or AA for 2011 rotation opportunity

  1. McDonald
  2. Lindblum
  3. Troncoso
  4. Elbert
  5. Link

Starting Pitching alternatives in case of a starter going on the 15 day DL

  1. McDonald
  2. Troncoso
  3. Elbert
  4. Link

Starting Pitching additional alternatives in case of a starter going on the 60 day DL

  1. Josh Lindblum
  2. Russ Ortiz
  3. Ramon Ortiz
  4. Alberto Bastardo

Relievers building experience for 2011 bullpen opportunity

  1. Wade
  2. Schlitling
  3. Leach
  4. Jensen
  5. Guerra

Reliever alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 15 day DL

  1. Wade
  2. Schlitling
  3. Leach
  4. Jensen
  5. Guerra

Reliever additional alternatives in case of a reliever going on the 60 day DL

  1. Justin Miller
  2. Luis Ayala
  3. Francisco Felix
  4. Josh Towers

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The State Of The Dodger Union

The State Of The Dodger Union

There have been many seasons where the Dodger fans wondered whether they would have a winning season.  There have been times when the fans were frustrated and angry. They do not understand why the owners have been unwilling or unable to sign better players.  They are tired of the bitterness and petty bickering between Beans and Franks.

The fans have many anxieties regarding the 2010 season. Will they be able to afford season tickets?  Will they be able to afford a single ticket? Many fans are struggling but encouraged. Mark has never been more hopeful then he is tonight. Despite the hardships the Team is strong.  In this new decade the Dodger management will embody our hopes.

It all begins with the budget.  First the Dodger must increase the revenue and decrease expenses.  One thing that we all hate is the spin from management and the deferred salaries.  Most of the high salaried players have been released.   If the Dodgers can afford to pay big bonuses to the players than they should also reduce the ticket prices for the fans that keep the team financially alive.  The hot dogs should be 65% cheaper.  Prices should be cut on 25% of the merchandise.   

The Dodger management has done much for the fans.  Maybe they should promise not to raise prices a single dime this coming year.  There is not a single fan that is now unable to afford a ticket.  All union employees are now able to afford to buy at least one ticket per year.  A Dodger stimulus bill should provide all you can eat in more areas of the stadium.

The fans send daily e-mails to the blog hoping for an increase in the Dodger Budget.  The true engine for World Series winners will always be dedication of the players and intelligent coaching decisions.  It all begins with the young players receiving proper instruction in the low minors.  When you talk to these young players they tell us that all of the salaries go to the free agents.  Why not give 30 million each year to each minor league and development budget?  Why not increase the daily food allowance for all minor league players.  There is no reason why the dodgers should have only 2 of the top 100 prospects in the minors.  More of the budgets should be allocated to player development.

Bonuses should be paid to players who keep their weight done and perform their core exercises.

The fans are hurting for a World Series title.  They only way to win is to lay a firm foundation for the future.  The Dodgers can not afford a player development bubble caused by lucky drafts picking.  How long will player development be on hold?  How long must we wait for a World Series title?  The Red Sox are not waiting, the Yankees are not waiting.  They do not settle for second place.  We do not accept second place for the dodgers any longer.  We want a World Series title.

It is time to get serious.  I am not interested in punishing the owners. The owners must guard against the same poor contracts given to injured players.  They can not afford this risk any longer. If the direction of management does not change then all fans should protest by not purchasing season tickets.

Last year investment in Camelback Ranch was a good start for player development.  But in order to create better players in the minor league system the Dodgers must develop new off shore areas for player development, continued investment in the Orient, and yes hiring a new coaching staff.

The team must seek new batting styles and pitching styles in order to compete with the rest of the teams. Only success should be rewarded.  More incentive contracts should be offered to players.  World class player development is needed for the future success of the young players.  Just being drafted does not guarantee that a player will get to the majors.

A task force should be created so that every fan can have access to at least game per year.  Millions of fans should be allowed to attend one game per year.  Each fan should be allowed a ticket credit so that if they only purchase one ticket per year the price will be reduced 25 percent.

I am not taking on these issues because I want any praise from the fans.  No I am writing this article in order to assist the fans in their attempt to express their long held desire to have they Dodger management fund the budget and make the proper player and personnel choices so that the Dodgers will win another World Series title.  Perhaps the fans have not expressed their thoughts to management properly.  We all take part of the blame.  We will not walk away from the Dodgers and neither should any of the fans.

Every fan should prepare their thoughts for improving the Dodgers and submit their ideas via mail, internet, or pony express.  – Written by Ken

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More On Hitting – Thank You Kindly Pass Me By

More On Hitting – Thank You Kindly Pass Me By

There is much debate among baseball professionals and fans regarding the benefit of taking multiple pitches during an at bat in order to drive up the pitch count of the starting pitcher and to see more types of pitches in order to be more productive later in the game.  However, it is well know that a batter’s batting average drops drastically when they get behind in the count. 

Lets’ look at the 7 returning Dodger starters and how they batted last year.

Count Seven Player  Average   Best Average Worst Average
             
2-0             0.470    Martin      0.583 Ethier      0.350
3-1             0.417   Kemp      0.533 Furcal      0.294
2-1             0.366   Rameriz      0.529  Martin      0.261
OBP             0.363   Rameriz      0.418 Furcal      0.335
0-0             0.356   Ethier      0.421  Martin      0.324
1-0             0.328   Rameriz      0.429 Blake      0.188
1-1             0.326   Loney      0.412  Martin      0.231
0-1             0.301   Kemp      0.482 Blake      0.175
3-2             0.260   Ethier      0.324  Martin      0.154
1-2             0.196   Furcal      0.231  Martin      0.162
2-2             0.180   Loney      0.211 Kemp      0.152
0-2             0.180   Loney      0.250 Rameriz      0.065

Loney has the best batting average for a specific count three times; Rameriz, Ethier and Kemp twice; and Martin once.  Martin has the worst batting average for a specific count five times; Blake twice; and Rameriz, Kemp, Furcal and Ethier once.

 The seven starter’s combined batting average is above their OBP when hitting at counts 2 – 0; 3 – 1; and 2 – 1. Six starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 2 – 0.  Five starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 3 – 1. Three starters have a batting average above their OBP when the count is 2 – 1.  So why must the batters take a pitch at these counts.  Certainly when a batter’s average on certain counts is above their OBP for the season they should be hitting.  Maybe taking pitches at these counts is one of the reasons that the Dodger batting average with RISP was so poor last year.

Six batters have an average below .200 when the count is 2 – 2.  Four batters have an average below .200 when the count is 0 – 2 or 1 – 2.  These batters should be more aggressive and tryvery hard not to let the count get to these levels.  Maybe taking extra strikes, that result in these counts, is one of the reasons that the Dodger batting average with RISP was so poor last year.

 Blake has an average below .200 when the count is either 1 – 0; or 0 – 1.  He obviously needs to take many pitches in order to become accustomed to the movement and speed of pitches. Martin even has an average below .200 when the count is 3 – 2.   Obviously Martin’s batting approached is completely screwed up.  He does have a batting average above .400 only when the count is 1 – 0; 2 – 0; and 3 – 1, so for him to take strikes is really insanity.

 In conclusion, each player handles pressure differently and adjusts their swing to the count and situation differently so a blind alliance to taking a lot of pitches is sophomoric.

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Kim Ng is the Daisy

Kim Ng is the Daisy

As the Dodgers make plans to go to Camelback Mountain, a mere 4 hour drive from Tombstone, we all wonder if this year will be the near death experience of the current Dodger ownership.  Just like Wyatt Earp, who had as many lives as a cat, Frank is desperately attempting to hang on to his gold mine, the LA Dodgers. One of the key players in this reality show is Kim Ng.  She is more than just Frank and Ned’s Huckleberry, she is the Daisy.

As Kim prepares her quantitative, qualitative, objective, subjective, player’s analysis, with more information than even a Boras Player’s Information Memorandum, you know that the players and their agents do not want the arbitrator to hear all of the negative information that Ng will present on behalf of the Dodger’s in their attempt to turn the player’s anticipated gold strike into mere pyrite.

As a result some of the Dodger players are contemplating accepting a 2 year contract.  This is actually to the benefit of both the players and the team.  The players are able to reduce their second year economic risk, should they fall to an injury, and the Dodgers will receive a discount and more importantly, payroll certainty. 

When the Dodgers have payroll certainty and are able to accurately budget their aggregate player salaries for 2010 and 2011 they simultaneously can (1) budget a higher level of player salaries, (2) appropriately sign free agent pitchers to 1 or 2 year contracts, and (3) not rush the potential future stars from Low A to the majors.  Additional positive consequences are (1) the increased stability observed by the fans will increase season ticket purchases, (2) increased stability will increase player productivity, (3) increased player productivity should increase the number of wins achieved during the season, (4) a higher probability of making the playoffs, and (5) the value of the Dodgers will not evaporate like the Padres.

It is time for the McBluffs to put their cards on the table and show the Dodger fans their actual business plan for the next two years in order to maintain true loyalty from the fans. Frank will probably win the Battle at OK Corral later this year; however, even if he does the consequence should not be a bankrupt team with Frank riding off into the sunset as broke and hopeless as Wyatt Earp.   Kim Ng is not just Frank’s Doc Holliday, she is the Daisy.  -  Ken

UPDATE FROM MARK:  This Just in:

Frank McCourt speaks  Here’s the crux of what Ken Gurnick quoted:

“When you talk about California, a community property state, and a divorce and sports teams, people might come to the conclusion that the team gets split and so forth, and perhaps that’s the situation in San Diego,” he said. “My situation is different. There were agreements signed and those agreements alter what is normally the case in a community property state. That’s my case. I have agreements, they are public record and they show very clearly I own the team, 100 percent of the team, and I have since I arrived. It’s a totally different situation.

I own the team, it’s not for sale and my hope someday is that my four boys will own the team. When people process this situation, they go down a path that the team is owned 50/50 and one party has to buy out the other. That’s when you need a partner and that’s not this situation. I own 100 percent. There’s nothing to buy.”

So, if Jamie tries to wrestle the team from Frank, she could be stealing her “boys” legacy.  Does she really want to be the villian to her sons?

 

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Fade to Blue…

Fade to Blue…

During the last season I constantly harped upon the idea that the Dodgers should rest their position players more often so that they would be rested for the playoffs.  The following tables show the overall trends of the Dodgers, Phillies and Yankees on a monthly basis for 2009.

    Dodgers Phillies Yankees
Won-Loss        
April   15-8 11-9 12-10
May   20-9 17-11 17-11
June   14-12 11-15 15-11
July   15-10 20-7 18-9
August   14-15 16-11 21-7
September   17-13 18-16 20-11
    95-67 93-69 103-59
Ranking   3rd Best 5th Best Best

For the first 4 months of the season the Dodgers had the best record in baseball and yet faded and were passed by the eventual World Series winner the Yankees.

    Dodgers Phillies Yankees
Batting Averages      
April   0.290 0.270 0.281
May   0.286 0.259 0.282
June   0.241 0.248 0.253
July   0.288 0.266 0.288
August   0.264 0.254 0.296
September   0.255 0.255 0.295
    0.270 0.258 0.283
Ranking   4th Best 8th Worst 2nd Best

 The Dodgers had a very good team batting average for most of the season and faded during the dog days of summer, while the Yankees surpassed their 2009 average during each of the last 3 months of the season.

    Dodgers Phillies Yankees
Batting Averages – Balls In Play    
April   0.333 0.289 0.305
May   0.345 0.290 0.300
June   0.273 0.279 0.269
July   0.326 0.308 0.319
August   0.303 0.282 0.321
September   0.292 0.288 0.333
    0.312 0.289 0.309
Ranking   3rd Best 3rd Worst 8th Best

 The Dodgers had a significantly better batting average when actively swinging their bats so maybe they should not have kept their bats on their shoulders so often.  Many observers noticed, and commented, during the season that the opposition were obviously taking advantage of the overly patient Dodger hitters thus allowing the pitchers to grove fastballs early in the count and throw off speed pitcher later in the count, resulting in the Dodger hitters swinging at pitches that traditionally have a lower probability of successful contact.  This failure to make a proper adjustment seemed to haunt the Dodgers in many areas late in the season, especially against the Phillies.

    Dodgers Phillies Yankees
ERA        
April   4.16 5.63 5.79
May   3.42 4.58 4.28
June   3.34 4.38 3.55
July   3.61 3.22 4.19
August   3.17 3.33 4.10
September   3.00 4.19 4.03
    3.41 4.16 4.28
Ranking   Best 9th Best 12th Best

The Dodgers had the best Team ERA during 2009, even without a true ACE.  The depth of the pitching staff was able to overcome the lack of innings by the starting pitching and the excessive wildness evidenced by the significant number of balls and wild pitches.  The staff performed above their season average from August through the Cardinal series. It is unfortunate that the pitch calling during the Phillies series was so predictable.

Win Probability Added Dodgers Phillies Yankees
2009   7.56 9.90 12.82
Ranking   4th Best 2nd Best Best
         
Win Probability Added – Positive    
2009   121.09 112.84 123.46
Ranking   2nd Best 7th Best Best
         
Win Probability Added – Negative    
2009   -113.83 -102.94 -110.64
Ranking   5th Worst 2nd Best 11th Worst

 Although the Dodgers had a superior WPA, and second only to the Yankees in exciting successful outcomes, they also had a significant number of untimely failures which were amplified during the series with the Phillies.  The Dodgers seemed to be unable to handle the superior pitchers and extremely stressful situations, which may be a result of their inner makeup not being improved with proper coaching.

In conclusion, the Dodger position players may have played a few too many games before the All-Star break, but it appears that (1) they were too erratic in pressure situations, and (2) the opposing teams made better adjustments during the season which resulted in their superior post season play as compared to the Dodgers.

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