12-26-07 - Top Prospect Lists Are Suspect

I had been planning to release my own list of Dodger Top Prospects and as I gathered information, the more I thought about it the more I realized what a crock most lists are.   Of course, just like you, I read these lists and my opinions are certainly skewed by them to some degree.  It’s just that I am not sure they are any more valid than a monkey throwing darts at names on a wall. While I do find it entertaining to read these lists,  and they do have some value, I want you to consider the following:

1. Most authors of the lists have not seen the players more than once and quite frequently, they have never seen them at all;
2. Some authors are better connected to major league officials than others, but I guarantee you won’t hear a bad thing about Dodger minor league players if you talk to Logan White or others in the organization - you need to talk to scouts and officials from other organizations;
3. Most authors rely on some type of statistical analysis of players to acheive these ratings (you know how I feel about statistical analysis - it’s part of the equation, but not the most important part);
4. While I can’t substantiate this, I believe that most authors read what all the others are saying and try to “modify” and develop their own scouting report (I know that a few may also subscribe to some of the scouting services, but that is expensive); and
5. Go back and look at their track record.

The fact is , most of these authors exist to just feed the addictions of baseball junkies like you (and me).  As I have said before, Sandy Koufax would probably not have appeared on any Top Prospect lists because he probably had worse control than Greg Miller currently does.  If you look at past top prospect lists you will find that frequently they do not include players who became very good major league players and include players at the top of the list who never amounted to much (think Choi, Chen, Betemit and others).   

Statistical analysis obfuscates many things, not the least of which are heart, character, hustle and talent!  The Harvard guy who is first in his class doesn’t necesarily make the best CEO and just because a guy has the highest OPS in Jacksonville doesn’t mean he’ll be a star in the majors (it also doesn’t mean that he won’t be a star).  The thing is - you have to balance statistical analysis common sense (i.e., what you see).  Like mutual funds “Past performance is not indicative of future propects.” 

The fact is, I have probably seen as many, probably more, of these minor leaguers than most of these writers.  You can take “thin slices” of a players demeanor or ability and predict with better accuracy how they might fare in the future.  Four years ago, on my annual trip to Vero Beach,  I noticed that at the start of every home game one player was always there first.  He arrived alone, carrying his bag and got started stretching, running and just getting himself mentally prepared.  As I watched him play, I could see that he had some talent.  I could see that he hustled wherever he went.  I could see that he was determined.  While I knew that he was learning a new position and was less than polished, I predicted during that Spring, that this kid was going to be a star.  His stats wouldn’t have led you to that conclusion, but his desire, drive and quiet confidence would.  That kid was Russell Martin!  While not ranking our prospects, let me give you my opinion on a few:

• Clayton Kershaw - Can’t miss - This guy has “Ace” written all over him.  He’ll likely make an impact in 2008.  I think he’ll be a mid-season callup, but if Schmidt isn’t recovered, he could make the team out of the gate.
• Scott Elbert - Great stuff but his mechanics could cause more arm problems.  I think he sould go to the pen.  He may be a closer in waiting.  He could make the team in 2008.
• Jon Meloan - I doubt that he’ll be a success as a starter.  I see him as a good setup guy in the future.  He could be a 6th inning guy in 2008, depending upon his spring.
• Delwyn Young - This guy will be a good 4th OF and may even make a good LF if given the chance.  He has a very quick bat and does strike out a lot, but the ball jumps off his bat.  I think he’s a lock to make the team this year.
• Blake DeWitt - He has tools.  I think his best position will be 2B or LF.  The fact that he’s LH will help him a lot and he has a nice compact swing.  One thing that hurts him is a lack of speed.   I think he’s likely to begin in AAA this year.  It will be interesting to see what position he plays.
• Anthony Raglani - He is not on anyone’s list, but I see him as a guy who could become a journeyman OF in a year or two or three (when he’s 27 or 28).  He’s LH and a classic late bloomer.
• Greg Miller - He has filthy stuff.  This guy had surgery and may have developed some bad mechanics to compensate.  As a result his release point is not consistent.  He’s young, give him time.  If he can smooth out his delivery, he can be a #2 starter.  He’s that good!  He’ll start in AA with no urgency to promote him until he’s in “control.”
• Andy LaRoche - I read that he has an injury “history” and say that is bunk!  He is a decent fielder with a good arm and the best opposite-field swing since Mike Piazza.  He should start at 3B this year and I expect him to put up 20-25 HR and hit .280 out of the chute.
• Tony Abreu - I see flashes with him, but wonder about his motivation.  I wonder if he can be an everyday player.  He will have 15 -18 HR power if he’s a regular.  He is a good 2B with range, but is not a speedy baserunner (Russ Martin is a much better baserunner with slightly less speed).
• Ivan DeJesus - My opinion of him is that he needs to improve his mental game.  I think he looses concentration.  He has a good arm, but committs way too many errors for a SS.  May have a higher hitting upside than Hu.  He could start at AA this year.
• Justin Orenduff - He didn’t pitch much last Spring, but in the past he has had nice stuff.  He does seem to be injury-prone, but seems like a hard worker too.  He’s working his way back.  I think he can be a good back-of-the-rotation starter as soon as next year, if he can stay healthy.
• Xavier Paul -  He was over-hyped in the beginning and really has not developed the skills necessary to play in the majors.  He has a good arm in the OF, but strikes out way too much for a guy with so little power and is a poor baserunner.  I don’t see him ever making the team, except as a 5th OF in an emergency.
• Chin-Lung Hu - He is an extremely slick fielder and will be a Gold Glove SS at some point.  His arm is above average, but I do not see him as a top-of-the-order hitter.  I would like to see what he can do in a full season at AAA.  Barring injury, he’ll be in AAA all year.
• James McDonald - I have only seen him twice, but I was impressed with his command.  He has several nice pitches and has deceptive speed on his pitches.  I think he’s a lock to make the rotation in 2009.  He may being in AAA this year.
• Josh Bell - Very raw, prone to being heavy.  Has a lot of natural talent.  Looks lazy to me, but has great power.  He needs a personal trainer.  Could be a boom or a bust!  He’s 2-3 years away.  Probably starts at Inland Empire.
• Kyle Orr - Extremely raw with a nice swing.  I think he could make an impact in 2-3 years, but he’ll have to learn to play the OF.

I have not seen Withrow, Lambo or Baez and have only seen Adkins once (he looked so-so at the time).  I am only rating the guys I have seen on multiple occasions.

By the way, in the photo at the top of the page, Scott Elbert is bent over talking to Justin Orenduff at the left side of the photo and Greg Miller’s height and curley blond hair makes him obvious to everyone.