I just signed off on it, leaving it up to Ned Colletti to complete the deal.  No, it’s not Cliff Lee and it’s not John Lackey.  It’s also not Jon Lester because while he could be persuaded to stay in LA, there is no guarantee he wouldn’t go back to Boston.

The deal I have approved is for the Dodgers to trade Joc Pederson, Julio Urias, Pedro Baez and Chris Reed to the Phillies for Cole Hamels.  I will grudgingly give up Pederson and Urias for 4 years of Hamels.  Corey Seager cannot be traded under any circumstances.  A Dodger official likened him to Cal Ripken (GASP!) this week.  Yes, THAT Cal Ripken!

I would like to figure out how to get Andere Ethier in the deal too (Philly could use another bat), but the Dodgers might have to pay too much, so I approved the deal as is.

It is painfully apparent to me that Dan Haren and Josh Beckett are mere shells of what they can be or used to be.  The Dodgers can get by with a Black Hole at #5 but not with a Black Hole at #4 AND #5.  The pen was outstanding last night and I believe there are prospects within the organization to fill any holes there.  In fact, I would let Red Patterson be the #5 if necessary.  Try it – you might like it!

Haren and Beckett only cost about $27 million this year and the Dodgers got 14 wins out of them, so a win costs about $2 million – that’s what it averages, I guess. Cheap at twice the price!

Now, we can see why I have never wanted to get rid of Kemp.  The Bison is back!

I think the Dodgers believe Scott Elbert will clear waivers – I wouldn’t be so sure.  The last time I checked he was left-handed!

Very Cool Video Here:

WaterTesting

  1. Badger says:

    I heard somewhere yesterday the Fillies want to keep their ace. But that bountiful offer you just made might change their minds.

    Agree with your 4 and 5 analysis. Red Patterson? It would be really cool to pull off a deal for another ace, but I’m trying to be realistic here. I’m also thinking Beckett and Haren aren’t done. Maybe they need extra days off.

    Dave and I had a fun discussion about the metrics craze. My contention is, if the old stats we used to use are good (BA, slg %, OBP, WRISP production) then the others (wOBA, wRC+ WAR etc) will be weighted as well. I’ve checked and it’s true. It’s been fun to learn some of this new stuff and all GMs are using it now, but the eye test, and old fashioned stats, still give plenty of info. My teller for decades has been OBP. Don’t make an out. Get on base any way you can. Another is slg %. Total bases is a crucial stat. I like the OPS and OPS+ numbers as well as WAR. Many of the others parallel those.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/

  2. BOB says:

    I thought that I heard somewhere that all intelligent managers and pitching coaches understood that 95 pitches in 4 innings, especially high stress innings with 11 runners on base, was essentially equivalent to 120 pitches in 7 innings, and only a healthy pitcher should pitch that many innings in this era. I thought that Beckett had at least 2 injuries. Very Strange!

    Vin Scully = Happy Happy!

    Elbert apparently has AAAA stuff and has not gained all of his velocity back. Someone will probably claim him and then release him before the year is over.

    Out of the box. I am ok with the Dodgers making no trades this week if the price for everyone continues to be above the clouds. However, if they want to win it all then a few roster changes will be needed. One radical move would be to call up Urias and let him be the designated long man for Beckett, with Maholm serving the same role for Haren. Beckett could go 4 innings and if Urias goes 3 innings, for approximately 11 games, he would reach 102 innings which is pretty close to his target of 100 innings for the year. The obvious additional plan would be to claim at least one player off of waivers during August, especially one or more relief pitchers and maybe a starter if the above plan does not work. However, most people will argue that you do not want to start Urias’ clock. So what, this is the year to both not sell the farm and to actually use the farm wherever possible. How else do you win the World Series both this year and in the future? Use the future now, don’t sell the future today.

    Ned should stay in the bidding wars just to run up the price that other teams end up paying.

    First NL team and 3rd MLB team to achieve 60 wins.

    Go Pirates! (for a couple days)

  3. Roger Dodger says:

    See what happens (again) when we rag on a Dodger players — pronounce them almost dead; make possible trades for them; speak for them — they wake up and have a big game. Kemp heard the hoof prints and had a big night.

    These guys are on their biggest roll of the season now.

  4. bobbie17 says:

    Colletti said in USA Today that the front office is more aware of when someone is ready for the bigs than the fans or the press. I believe that. Don’t expect trades or callups soon. Beckett, Haren, and Maholm are here to stay, I think. The more the lead widens, the less the urgency. Then you look to the postseason, where a 3 man rotation might get you by. First place feels good. Beating a couple of playoff caliber teams feels good. Keep it going with Greinke.

  5. Bobby says:

    I don’t give up 2 of our top 3 prospects, plus 2 more useful prospects, unless Philly pays a substantial part of Hamels’ salary. I would give up Pederson (as I think outfielders can be more easily obtained than a ss/3b or a 17 year old leftie) plus other prospects AND take on Hamels entire salary.

    We are doing them a gigantic favor by taking over 80mil in salary off their books (yes he’s a very good pitcher, but 80mil off the books is a tremendous help to any organization; just ask Boston) This is a Boston-type deal all over again where we absorb all the salary AND give up the prospects as well.

    Anyone else dealing with Philly would be getting substantial salary relief in any Hamels deal; we should be as well.

    NOW, If we get Hamels, and he wins 2 games in the world series and we win it all, then ignore everything I say and we’ll all drink from a Macallan bottle and do toasts to Pederson, Urias, and whomever else we deal!

  6. Badger says:

    “A Dodger official likened him to Cal Ripken (GASP!) this week.”

    I wonder what a Baltomre official might say? Me? I REALLY doubt it. At age 21 Ripken had an OPS+ over 100. At age 22 he was leading the league in a few offensive categories. Maybe the Dodger official meant they were the same size.

    Can Urias sustain? Or does he go the way of Elbert? You never know. But for Hamels? Or for Price? Yeah, I think I do it. But I don’t give them everybody. Pederson and Urias and we take on the salary with Hamels. Pederson, Urias and one other for Price. If they say no, screw it, we ride into the playoffs with a pretty good 1-3. But…….. I still get one more inning eater somewhere just in case Beckett is done. If we can’t find one #5 within our own organization then Logan White has some explaining to do.

    • Badger says:

      One more thing – Lester. If he will sign an extension with us, I make the same offer. If he’s a rental, we may be facing him in the playoffs. He’s been very consistent in saying he wants to stay in Boston. However, it’s being reported right now on ESPN That if Boston isn’t extending him now, they don’t intend to this winter. That makes getting him, so the Cardinals don’t, more compelling. To get an ace, it will probably cost Urias or Seager. Heck, I would insist for both.

  7. Michael says:

    Sure he would resign with them but there’s this one caveat. If Boston doesn’t give Lester what he wants now, I really doubt they will pay what he’ll command as a FA. Not my preference really anyway.
    Masterson to Cards.
    There must be 5 or 6 times that I’ve seen Matt go yard to right or right center and I’ve thought, he’s back. Obviously I was wrong . He always hit em in bunches when he was right, so here’s hoping he can convince me. Couple tonight could WOW me over.

  8. Badger says:

    Orioles close to deal with Lester? Fine by me. Masterson to the Cards? Rather face him than Lester or Hamels.

    Looks like nothing large is on the horizon. Surprise me Jed.

  9. BOB says:

    I just do not want to trade the top 3 prospects for anyone. Tell the players that make $20 mil per year with a WAR of 1.0 to man up and start playing. Can you give away a 2014 draftee this winter if today you obtain a player in a trade for a PTBNL. I think that I heard once that was doable. Not sure. It sounds a little sneaky so MLB may have stopped that procedure.

    How about Ethier and $10 mil per year for Colon.

    Maybe on September 1st Donnie will insist that every pitcher on the 40-man roster be called up and pitch the same days as Haren and Beckett! Forget the minor league playoffs. No Dodger team is going to make them anyway.

  10. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    If memory serves, I believe that draftees cannot be traded until a year after the draft (or maybe it’s a year after they sign). So I don’t believe any of our 2014 draftees can be traded until at least June 2015.

    Here’s hoping that what we saw from Matt Kemp last night is a harbinger of things to come. I’m encouraged when I begin to see him hitting the ball hard to CF and right CF. I was beginning to think that perhaps he needed an off-season dedicated totally to workouts instead of the post-surgical rehabs of the past two seasons. And I still think that will be needed for him to be totally back. But if last night is any indication, he’s back far enough to make a huge difference this year. So I only trade him if the haul is commensurate with what a superstar brings back. And that’s more than a two month rental of a pitcher, any pitcher. And in addition to any players received, his ENTIRE CONTRACT gets picked up.

    Assuming that Kemp stays, and assuming that what we saw last night is harbinger hoped for, then I believe, our pitching needs are a bit more modest. It would be nice to add another ace to the staff, but quite honestly, if Kemp had been healthy last year, then Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, would have been quite enough to take home a world championship. We only needed a healthy Hanley to beat the Cardinals last year. If we have a healthy Kemp this year, and a healthy Hanley, and everyone else remains healthy, then there is no reason to believe that we won’t score enough to go all the way.

    In any case, I think the Dodgers will add pitching, but maybe just good pitching, of the non-ace variety. To obtain an ace quality pitcher, I would be very reluctant to part with two or more of our top prospects. And if I can believe everything I hear, then Corey Seager is off limits, and so perhaps Urias as well. I believe that win now is a focus, but so too is the re-building of this teams infrastructure. We’re getting a little older in some places, and a strong farm system, turning out real big league ready stars to be is also an essential element of the Dodgers’ long term success. I want to win this year, next year, the year after, and so on and so forth. Just call me greedy.

    “Colletti said in USA Today that the front office is more aware of when someone is ready for the bigs than the fans or the press. I believe that.” — B17

    Those are my exact sentiments, and why on several occasions I’ve indicated that I would go along with the judgment of Dodgers’ management, since they’re the ones who see or get reports on our prospects everyday. They have an insight into these players far deeper and more knowledgeable than any of us. Yes, they make mistakes. But then again, so do all of us. And it’s why I often have a problem determining what prospects I would include in deals. How can I make those judgments without any real first hand knowledge of the players involved. And the same goes for the player(s) being acquired. I may hear wonderful things about a player, only to find out when I see him play, that he’s nowhere near the player I read about.

    Just saw on my iPhone that the Dodgers optioned Darwin Barney to ALBQ., and completed the trade by sending pitcher Jonathan Martinez to the Cubs. I believe I’ve seen Martinez’s name before, just don’t remember how highly (or lowly) he’s ranked in the Dodgers’ system. For the time being, Miguel Rojas stays, and the Dodgers are stockpiling big league depth at ALBQ. (Barney and Figgins). Given their need for a second baseman, maybe we can trade Barney/Figgins to the midgets for Buster Posey. I’m sure that would solve our catching problem, and give us a first baseman for the time when Agon retires.

  11. Badger says:

    I just tuned into the Pirates game a few minutes ago and saw two of the dumbest base running blunders (same play) that I have ever seen on the Major League level. Might cost the Pirates the game. You will no doubt see it played frequently on ESPN.

  12. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I turned that game on just in time to see that play. And came to the same conclusion you did. And I think the midget announcers put the onus on the runner on second who must have thought the bases were loaded. However, I don’t recall them saying anything about the stupid runner at 3B going home instead of just staying planted there. Seeing the runner trotting over from 2B must have made him also think the bases were loaded.

  13. Badger says:

    Yep. Two blunders. The guy on third took off when the idiot from second was in the run down. He should have just froze. From bases loaded one out to inning over. Pirates also gave up 2 unearned. Looked like a Little League game.

  14. idahoal says:

    Brooklyn, I agree with what you say that GM’s know when a prospect is ready better than the fans and press. Except when it comes to Ned. He has five outfielders on the present club. There is no room for Pederson. So Brooklyn, he has to say Pederson is not ready. Ned got himself in this problem. He is paying Eithier approx. 15 million a year to sit on the bench and cannot get rid of him. Eithier has been in decline ever since he hurt his little finger. Ned has done the same thing with the bull pen. He signed Maholm in case Beckett could not go. Now Maholm is in the bull pen and cannot get rid of him. The point I am making is that he does not give himself an option or flexibility where he could bring up a prospect if a player failed. He covers his back side by signing over the hill, old guys, who nobody else wants. He just does not look very far ahead. I am firmly convinced Ned is the worst in the entire Dodger organization. Again, I said this before, the Dodgers just do not have the best 25 players on their team.

  15. Badger says:

    Ned has had his issues that’s for sure. But with proper ownership he’s got us in first place. And last year we were one broken rib (and an unexpected Kershaw meltdown …….. btw, that wouldn’t have happened to Koufax) from the World Series. And nobody can successfully predict injuries. Remember, according to the metrics that everybody is living and dying with, Ethier only needs to put up a 2.2 WAR to earn his money. If he was an everyday RFer somewhere I think he would still do it. He was over 3 before this trade happened. Crawford is seriously overpaid but Andre isn’t. This situation is not his fault. There had to be some team out there that recognizes his value as an every day player. Unless Kershaw and Greinke say no, I would trade Pederson+ and Ethier for a catcher and a bullpen arm. Ethier to Boston still makes sense to me.

  16. Badger says:

    I keep waiting for Ramirez to snap out of it. He just looked at two fastballs over the plate and overswung wildly at a 3-2 curve low and inside. Hope he comes around offensively. That’s is only worth. If he can’t hit, he is of no use.

  17. Quasimodo says:

    HanRam is gonna do big things. How do I know that?-Because he can. We’ll even see sign tonight! Oh, and that Kemp guy……..well we can go back to cheering him again. CHEERS, friends!

  18. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    If Kemp has indeed turned a corner, then all we need is for Hanley to join the party and start hitting. No question that he’s useless in the field. Like you noted last night Badger, there were two balls (one to his left and the other to his right) that he should have gotten to.

    Other than Lee, who did the Dodgers have in their system to open the season in their rotation? He’s not even on the 40 man roster. Maholm was signed to a one year $1.5 million contract. The Dodgers could afford to let him go whenever they please. Same goes for Chris Perez who is only signed to a one year 2.3 million contract. My guess is, that if anyone in the minors had stepped up big this year, either Maholm or Perez would have been gone by now. And it didn’t hurt that Paco melted down again like he did at the end of last season. As for Ethier, my guess is that his signing was an organizational decision, not just Ned. Stan Kasten was just as culpable in that one. I had forgotten about the Ethier pinky injury. Maybe that has something to do with his decline. Whatever the case, no one could have predicted that he would have such a complete power outage.

    Good chance that by this time tomorrow night there will be some changes, and we’ll have some answers.

      • Quasimodo says:

        Indeed! Scoring 1st two runs and then his very timely walk-off! This turner cat…..how was it possible that he slipped through Mets fingers??? He’s quite the weapon. Thanx, Mets! CHEERS!

        • Quasimodo says:

          After reading my above post I see I should of been clearer I was talking about Kemp before jumping into Justin Turner. Geez my mind is slipping. So much so that I’m finding it hard to recall anything the 2014 ASG. Maybe there wasn’t anything worth remembering in it!

  19. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I wanted to kill Dee Gordon when he jumped on Matt Kemp’s back. That’s all we need, Kemp getting injured during the celebration of his winning hit. I certainly hope someone talks to Dee and let’s him know that that’s a no no.

    Still a great win. Now it’s just time to hold our collective breaths and see what happens between now and tomorrow’s trade deadline. I believe the Dodgers will do something, but it could happen in August.

  20. Badger says:

    Good win. It’s fun to see the Dodgers jumping around.

    Rumors:

    “The Cardinals and Dodgers are the two teams that are most aggressively competing for Lester’s services, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. They’re also the most aggressive clubs on David Price,”

    Aggressive? What does that mean?

    Collettii insists NONE of the top 3 prospects are in the mix for any starting pitcher. That doesn’t sound aggressive to me. I’m fine with it if that is the play but these last several days have been exasperating. Trying to get a read on what is actually happening is impossible. It’s like trying to follow politics. Nobody is telling the truth and everything is back room deals. You gonna believe what you see or what I tell you?

    The latest is we are still in on Lackey and could offer last years first round pick Chris Anderson. That might do it.

    I just checked fangraphs and Ramirez, with a -1 dWAR and seemingly vapid with a bat in his hand, is somehow putting up a 2+ WAR. For me this is a case of my lyin eyes cuz I just haven’t seen a 3.5 oWAR out of him. But the last 28 days he has an .815 OPS so I’m missing something. He’s done that without a home run. Maybe that’s what I’m missing.

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