That’s More Like it!

8 runs on 9 Hits. That’s better… not good! But I’ll take it! Freddie Freeman is smoking hot! Will Smith is white-hot, and Bellinger, Taylor, Turner, and Muncy were 2-14! YIKES! Gavin Lux is hitting .290. I am happy for him, and Trayce Thompson hit a 2-run double that was legit! I am very happy for Trayce.

Andreson struggled but kept the Dodgers in the game. His ERA sits at 3.00, but Vesia got the win. Vesia’s ERA is dropping (3.32) and Almonte and Hudson were filthy. Kimbrel was better, but he still scares the bejesus outta me. He took the place of Reyes Moronta last night: Mop up guy!

A lot of you want to fire Dave Roberts for whatever you can blame him for (hitting Muncy 4th, whatever), but you will also have to fire the entire Front Office as well because baseball is now a collaborative effort with the manager just being their arm. No, the manager is not a puppet but he does communicate extensively with the Braintrust, and they are and should be in agreement. That includes Andrew Friedman and his GM as well as all their minions. I guarantee you that the Front Office is in agreement with the vast majority of what Dave Roberts does, so when you say “Fire Dave Roberts” you really are saying “Get Andrew Friedman and his gang out of LA.” Do you really want to get rid of one of the most successful Front Offices of all time?

They have analytics out of their analytics. They uses to show you that analytics area (which was huge) on the Stadium Tours but they have stopped because it is so much bigger and more robust and is TOP SECRET. Statistics and Probability and Analytics and Sabermetrics rule their world. They play the numbers and if a decision is made, more than likely there was supporting evidence and the more those decisions are correct, the more they make them. Some of you may think it takes the human element out of the game, but not really. You can still play a hunch, but the less it works the more the data support the statistics.

The Dodgers and most other teams make “data-driven” decisions and if Mookie Betts hits #1 (which I do not prefer) you can “bet your sweet bippy” there is support for that.

The same with Muncy hitting 4th ad nauseum or trading for Trayce Thompson. Is it always right? Of course not, but it is right more than “Playing a hunch.” Statistics and Probability are here to stay and evolve every day. The main point I want to drive home is that if you want Doc’s head, you have to ask for Andrew’s as well! They are in this together… and except for occasional blips, they have been pretty damn successful.

We all wonder why there are so many formerly good hitters who are struggling right about now. I have no inside information, but I tend to believe that there have been some “breakthroughs” in the use of analytics and statistics and this data is being used to get some hitters out at a much higher rate… until when (and if) they can adjust. Maybe I am wrong, but I guarantee you that these analytics departments are “mad scientists” cooking up concoctions to get hitters out at the speed of light. For every action, there is a reaction… how will they react? That is the question.

Play of the Game

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1539792787020718083?s=20&t=MlW38Knd4FVZEAr-RlHLZw

Checking on old friends:

  • Ross Stripling – 4-2, 3.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 53 IP
  • Hyun-jin Ryu – Out with TJ Surgery
  • Alex Verdugo – .247, .352 OB%, 4 HR, 35 RBI
  • Kike Hernandez – .209, .273 OB%, 4 HR, 24 RBI
  • Josiah Gray – 6-4, 3.95 ERA, 73 K, 1.26 WHIP
  • Kaybear Ruiz -.254, .314 OB%, 2 HR, 15 RBI
  • Joc Pederson – .266, .342 OB%, 15 HR, 37 RBI (I told you the Dodgers should have signed him)
  • Kenley Jansen – 4-0, 18 Saves in 21 Opportunities, 3.03 ERA, 0.91 WHIP (Damn!)
  • AJ Pollock – .259, .294 OB%, 4 HR, 23 RBI
  • Dean Kremer – 1-1, 2.35 ERA 15 IP, 1.17 WHIP
  • Rylan Bannon – 28 ABs, .143 BA.250 OB%
  • Albert Pujols – 110 AB, .200 BA, .302 OB%
  • Corey Seager – .235, .307 OB%, 15 HR, 32 RBI
  • Zach Reks – .265 BA, .265 OB%

Future Dodgers Down on the Farm

  • Miguel Vargas was 1-3 with a BB in his first game in LF. The OKC Dodgers were shut out 1-0.
  • Mike Grove went 5, gave up 2 Hots, 0 Runs, Walked 2, and struck out 5.
  • Dellin Betances got the loss as he gave up no Hits, no Walks, and allowed no Earned Runs. Here’s how that happened: Jake “I ain’t no 3B” Lamb made an error allowing Bubba Thompson to reach base. Thompson proceeds to steal second and third base. Nick Solak hits a sac fly and Thompson scores.
  • Tulsa was also shutout 4-0, as Bobby Miller gave up 2 runs in the first, then settled down and shut them down through his 5 IP. He walked 1 and struck out 8. If you can’t score, you don’t win.
  • Great Lakes did win as Jonny DeLuca was 3-4.
  • Nick Nastrini went 5 Innings, allowed 5 Hits, and 2 Runs, striking out 7 and walking 2.
  • Rancho Cucamonga scored 3 touchdowns and a field goal (24 runs) as they beat Lake Elsinore like a rented mule,
  • Damon Keith was 4-6 with 4 RBI and Luis Rodriguez was 3-5 with 5 RBI.
  • There were a lot of other stars last night, but I cover the cream of the crop. I cover the players I think have the best shot of making The Show. Of course, others will make it too, but the Dodgers Farm System is so deep, that I would have to write for an hour just to cover that aspect.

If you are on the West Coast, Watch the Dodgers with your Toast!

Did you know I am also a poet? šŸ˜‰

How about some Fall Out Boy?

This article has 80 Comments

    1. Bubba Thompson, the guy that stole the 2 bases has 33 steals this season against 1 CS. Betances is also bad at holding runners. Perfect Storm.

      1. Good to know!

        They should have told Jake Lamb not to make that error! šŸ˜‰

        1. Maybe they told Lamb that dude is fast, and he made the error rushing the play?

  1. 12:35 PM ET

    Dodgers (42-25)
    Reds (23-45)
    SP Clayton Kershaw L
    4-1 2.08 ERA 39IP 40K

    Confirmed Lineup
    SS Trea Turner R
    1B F. Freeman L
    DH Will Smith R
    2B Max Muncy L
    RF Chris Taylor R
    3B J. Turner R
    LF Gavin Lux L
    CF C. Bellinger L
    C A. Barnes R

    Clear-day
    0% Rain
    82Ā° Wind 8 mph L-R

  2. Tho I think it might have been the water guru who was calling for Robertā€™s head a week ago! Just sayin!

    1. I am not denying that.

      I am a rabid fan too, but occasionally I have a modicum of common sense!

  3. I think at some point analytics leads to self fulfilling prophecy. For example, analytics led to the pull and lift everything approach at the plate, which led to extreme shifts, which led to everyone hitting to into the shift.

    Last night was an example of analytics gone wrong. The Dodgers started Alvarez, a left handed batter against the right handed Castillo (0-2 was the result). He was pulled for Trace Thompson against the left handed reliever, Detwiler and Trayce promptly strikes out. So that’s 0-3 against opposite side pitchers until Trace delivered the kill shot against the right handed reliever, going oppo for the double.

    All the analytics produced nothing. But, Trayce came through in spite of the analytics going oppo against a same side pitcher.

    Analytics is slow to adjust to changes because the sample size has to be large enough to be considered for decision making. Being overly reliant on analytics could be one of the reasons why it doesn’t work well in post-season series where your opponent adjusts while you’re waiting for the sample to be large enough to counter the adjustments.

    Anyone can see that you don’t want a guy that isn’t hitting his weight and is towards the bottom of the team in RBI, despite batting cleanup isn’t the right move. But, those algorithm writers somehow know better? I think not. This is a case where past performance isn’t indicative of present performance and is a slow adjustment which leads to undesired results.

    1. Ummm. What?

      why it doesnā€™t work well in post-season series where your opponent adjusts while youā€™re waiting for the sample to be large enough to counter the adjustments.

      I may be mistaken, but the teams that have won in the post-series for the past half-decade plus:
      Braves, Dodgers, Nats, Red Sox, Astros and Cubs are all at the fore-front of the “lead by analytics movement”?

      Also, I’m not sure I follow your first line about a self-fulfilling prophecy. I may be wrong, but I thought the 3-true outcomes movement (what I believe to be the pull and lift approach?) is precisely favored because of the analytically led changes in pitching and the analytically led defensive positioning (shifting) which makes it much harder to score regularly through singles and “small ball”. But you posit it the other way around? I’m not sure this matters, because I think the end result is the same?

      1. I guess you aren’t watching the same postseason as me and others on this site. Maybe here have stated that you need some small ball and manufacturing runs in the post season.

        Let me spell the first line out for you since you didn’t understand it the first time.

        Analytics is based on statistics.
        Statistics is a record of past outcomes.
        Analytics created pull and lift
        Pull and lift lead to shifts
        Instead of adjusting, people keep hitting into the shift. A self fulfilling prophecy as we see batting averages decrease steadily. Less action and less scoring overall.

        So you think that Pull and Lift came as result of shifting? And that to pull into the shift, hoping for a fly ball is favored analytically? I’m not sure I follow that reasoning. The third outcome is a strikeout, so I’m not sure that 3-true outcome approach at the plate is indeed favored. I think it’s a byproduct of Pull and Lift.

        1. “Many here have stated” That’s very far from anything of an informed viewpoint! I find the playoffs to be the distillation of analytically driven baseball. Pitchers barely go 5. Lots of match-up play in bullpen moves. VERY little small ball.

          Yeah, I think you have it backwards. I think as it because harder and harder to string together outs, and as it became more and more evident how important it is to avoid outs, that led hitters to adopt the lift and launch angle approach.

          No worries.

      1. That’s interesting. I think it’s linear. Pull and Lift > Defensive Shift > Hitting into the shift. This is called evolution. Hitters started to pull everything and focus on putting it over the fence. Once they started pulling everything, defenses adjusted and now you’re seeing less ground ball hits. Yet, we are still hitting into the shift, even though the desired outcome has diminished (Because of the shift taking away hits) from when they developed the Pull and Lift strategy. Some teams are adjusting more quickly than others as more teams beat the shift by bunting and going the other way. Many here praise the Giants for doing this.

  4. Kike to me has always been over rated, He is good at being a super sub, not so good when he is in the lineup everyday. He was a spark plug type player who did some good things, but I never thought the guy should be out there everyday. They probably should have brought Joc back. He is playing better than most of the guys they have out there now. But hindsight is always 20-20. Getting the win was nice, having to come from behind again was not. The eight inning has proved this season at least to be the Dodgers big inning. But just once I would love to see them jump all over a starter and give their pitcher some room to breathe.

    1. I totally agree about Kike. I don’t agree with you about Joc. I’ve heard that song before. He’s hot, he’ll cool. He still sucks against lefties, so you have to platoon him. He’s not very good defensively and overall he wasn’t very good last year. He’s playing on a one year contract, so it isn’t like Farhan some brilliant insight leading to the confidence that he would have a career year this year.

      1. True, but I said probably. He is better so far than what they did sign. Joc is just one of those guys you have to love come October.

  5. When he was a free agent, Joc didnā€™t want to come back and platoon with Pollock in LF. He was only going to sign someplace where he could play full time. AF wasnā€™t going to promise him that. I love Joc and Iā€™m wearing his jersey going to Atlanta this weekend but it was time for him to move on.

  6. Muncy and JT have 2 hits each today.

    Look out, but if they finally wake up, we’re about to take off.

    1. I don’t need to state the obvious “my god if Belly wakes up, we’re about to take off”

  7. Before start dreaming of an awakening hitter, don’t forget they are playing against perhaps THE WORST TEAM IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES.

  8. Max Muncy just had his first three-hit game of the year.

    Cody seems to be stirring too.

    Freddie is on a tear and again, it looks like the Dodger Front Office and Dave Roberts had more info than us, We were playing checkers while they were playing chess.

  9. Cody and Max with HR’s and Max is 3 for3 so far. Are they back? If so, the NL West should wave the white flag now. Freddie is red hot, Will Smith is looking great, Mookie back soon, and now a resurgent Cody and Max (hope so). Lets go Dodgers!

    1. Guys,we get up and down like a kid on a trampoline with our Dodgers.I am the same way.This time tomorrow night I will be at the Dodger Braves game.It will be my first game in 25 years.I feel like a little kid.We are going to 2 games.I love my Dodgers,way too much!

  10. Friedman has to stack that bullpen with guys without flaws because Doc has a hard time managing a bullpen. In other words the bullpen has to be flawless due to the manager that the Dodgers have.

    1. Bulltwinky! What bullpen in baseball has 8 all stars? Cmon man you have to be realistic here. Itā€™s 8-1. Youā€™re not bringing in your top relievers!

      1. Iā€™m not saying the bullpen isnā€™t good. Iā€™m just saying due to the manager that the Dodgers have the bullpen needs to be flawless. Iā€™m just thinking playoff time.

        1. Sorry but Iā€™m not buying itā€™s Roberts fault every time. Players are on the roster for a reason and they have to perform. Up 8-1 how is it Roberts fault Bickford had a bad day? Leaving Kersh in to pitch to Soto and Rendon was a mistake but most of the time players just dont deliver

          1. It was the right move to make. In a blowout game you use your worst relievers. I’m just thinking about the playoffs. I’ve watched Doc make some moves with the bullpen that stats don’t back up.

  11. Is it as easy as this? We complain and they respond! Why is Muncy hitting clean up? What a great at bat by Bellinger during his home run at bat. He had 3 great takes on pitches he canā€™t hit. Breaking stuff down and out of the zone and high fastballs. Then 3-0 and Iā€™m thinking no way theyā€™re letting him swing and kaboom. If he can tighten up his zone and swing at strikes then heā€™s got a chance to get back

  12. Ironic that the three players that everyone complains about most each have 3 hits and each have a big extra base hit. What now, David Price and Craig Kimbrel having scoreless outings? Yeah, that also happened.

  13. I’m not sure, but I think all the hits against Bickford were already 2 strikes, poor pitching selection (catcher) or poor pitcher execution?

    1. Every hit, including the home run was on the edge of the plate, or just out of the strike zone.

  14. Our new closer finishes the sweep! That was 94 low and in on 2nd K. What in the world am I gonna complain about now? Dodgers are just no fun anymore!

      1. Iā€™m already practicing! Iā€™m booing my wife right now over what sheā€™s cooking for dinner tonight!

    1. Somehow, I think if we were 9th overall in ERA, you wouldn’t think we had a “Very real MLB pitching staff”.

  15. Nice to see Max, JT and Belli finally put together a great game on the same day.

    Also nice to see Vargas getting a look at LF. Heā€™s the opposite of the ā€œ3 outcome hitterā€, unless the MLB hitting coaches mess with his approach (always possible). He strikes out 20% of the time but walks 15% of the time. His early scouting reports praised his pure bat to ball skills, rated him high if he could transform his raw power to in game. Heā€™s done that the past two years. Best case scenario. Looking forward to seeing him the LA outfield soon.

    Mark, thatā€™s an interesting theory on the analytics effecting these slumping stars. Iā€™m not sure if that can explain it. But itā€™s certainly possible. It would take one hell of a ā€œbreakthroughā€ to have such a massive effect across so many teams simultaneously. Especially given how much effort teams devote to keeping their secret sauce secret. Several years ago I was talking to a buddy who was a minor league scout for the Blue Jays. Heā€™d be sent all over the country before the trade deadline to evaluate potential trade chips in the lower levels. Weā€™d meet up before 66ers or Quakes games for a beer when he was in town (btw, minor league scouts are paid like crap too. Heā€™s in real estate now). He told me the Blue Jays didnā€™t even let their scouts speak to the deep analytic people. And many of of analytic people were separated from the people they had working on the ā€œblack boxā€ coding in some bunker somewhere. Departmentalized like the damn CIA. If someone jumped ship, nobody had the full recipe for how they were analyzing players. So I doubt that if some team discovered a really effective pitching strategy that the word would spread across the league all at ounce. It would happen more gradually as other teams reverse engineered the reason why a team was changing their strategy. I still think itā€™s the ball. Thatā€™s the most simple, and likely explanation IMHO. I remember when people began speculating in the early 90s as to why players were hitting HRs at a record pace. Many said roids. Many other countered with nutrition, training, advanced statsā€¦ ect. Well, it was roids. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

    But you could be right. If you are, that would be good for the Dodgers. Because their brain trust and ā€œblack boxā€ will eventually figure out how to counter any new strategies in time. That would be good for us. If itā€™s the ball, that would be worse. If they have players completely change their approach and swings to counter a dead ball only to have Manfred change em out for new ā€œlivelierā€ balls in the playoffsā€¦ that would be frustrating. Heā€™s done that before.

    1. Occam’s razor.

      Yes, it’s the ball. Yes, just keep punching yourself in the face while all those big flies die on the warning track while waiting for the next ball to be released.

      Maybe someone the humidors aren’t being maintained optimally.

      1. I certainly am not advocating for that. Obviously the team has to make any adjustment necessary based on the circumstances with which they find themselves. My point is, if this is some new advance stat strategy, the adjustment will be permanent. If it’s the ball, the adjustment may only be temporary. Which would require a re-adjustment if that changed. I have no doubt Manfred is working on fixing the ball. Reworking a players swing isn’t easy. If they have re-work them all again in the same season, that’s even more difficult.

  16. OK, I am going to tease you a little, but it looks like I am going to be granted the opportunity to interview Diego Cartaya, Austin Chubb, Emmet Sheehan, and Nick Nastini tomorrow or Saturday at Parkview Field in Ft. Wayne.

    STAY TUNED!

    1. If you get that chance, I hope you’ll ask better questions than Kirsten does.

      1. Kirsten and I were the finalists for her job. I asked better questions but she had a “slight” edge in the “looks” department!

  17. Previous comment on analytics:

    Analytics is based on statistics.
    Statistics is a record of past outcomes.

    Thatā€™s not quite right. Analytics is based on both probability and statistics. So while statistics are a record of past outcomes, an analytic department would then use probability to predict future outcomes.

    What is key for any probabilistic assessment is an acceptable sample size. Sample size can be a function of both game data as well as numerical simulations. It would be relatively easy to simulate game data via Monte Carlo methods. So sample should not be an issue.

    With respect to why is Muncy batting 4th. I suspect it has more to do with believing in the player then any analytics.

    1. With all the different players, swing paths, pitchers, arm angles, different pitches, spin rates on each pitch, humidity, wind, etc. I’m doubtful a model using Monte Carlo methods could be used. Way too many variables. Good try though.

      Monte Carlo methods can be used to predict probability when you have a set number of outcomes, like dice rolls, or roulette spins. When you’re speaking of player positioning and all the other things already mentioned, I doubt you can use a model like that to make decisions on a baseball field.

  18. I just got my media request approved, and my cameraman and I (my son-in-law who runs US Water Systems Video Department) are headed to Ft. Wayne tomorrow afternoon for the 7:05 Game. Woo-Hoo! Do you have any special questions you want to ask?

    1. Ask him what part of his game needs to improve the most before he gets to the majors.

  19. Mark,

    Ask the hitters you’re interviewing who is the toughest pitcher they faced thus far and conversely ask the pitchers who is toughest hitter to get out? Ask them what they have found to be the biggest difference between A ball(Rancho) and A+ ball (Great Lakes)?Ask them have the minor living conditions improved from last year to this year? Does each player have a specific goal or timeline they’re striving towards and think they can make it the SHOW?

      1. Ask Cartaya what Doc should do with Smith when he takes over as catcher.

  20. My opinion on all above is all the opinions above are flawed as you can play the same exact scenario with any given pitch to any player and each time will have different results, even a player like Ted Williams who had his own analytics that included small ball and launch angle. So there’s something on both sides of every coin. What works one day doesn’t work the next, Unless you have a lineup of 9 Ted Williams which that end result would be a win every game. Unless Koufax were on the bump. At any rate it’s all guessing but an educated guess usually is best IF you’re lucky that is. Max was confident because the park was what the doctor ordered. My analytics tell me Manfred is screwing up the game making it all about guessing and stats mean less because past performance mean less. Someone shoot the bastard.

      1. You have to be very careful if you don’t know where you’re going, because you might not get there. Yogi Berra.

          1. Am I okay? I think I am. I also were thinking I was humorous – so maybe I’m not okay. Still thanx for asking.

  21. Fun game to watch. Heading back home next week. Not going to stop in Az like I was planning. Found out the truck needs some work on the rack and pinon steering when I get home. Have enjoyed myself, but I am more than ready to head back.

  22. Looking forward to the interviews.
    I’m curious about what Nastrini and Sheehan have to say about the Dodgers’ reputation for improving pitchers. What is their experience and what have they witnessed with others?
    Also curious whether these minor leagues ever wish to be traded to a franchise that isn’t so deep and could provide a better, faster shot at the majors. The political answer, of course, is to say they love the Dodger organization and plan to succeed here. But clearly Nastrini and Sheehan would be higher on the depth chart on many teams.
    Thanks for the update on the old friends….
    Happy to see Stripling playing well. He’s a class act and is a good example of a guy who probably benefited by a trade to a team that needed him more.
    The numbers for Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz look pretty solid. It’s good when a big deal works for both sides. (Still amazed that AF snagged Trea.)
    Happy, also, that Kenley is doing well. Pretty fun that Joc homered off him–but he still got the save.
    And yeah, maybe bringing back Joc would have been a good idea…. but I’m sure glad it was the Rangers, not AF, who overpaid Seager. (Wish him well–but glad he’s moved on.)
    It’s great to see Joc getting love for the All-Star game. He’s been popular everywhere he’s played–and had that epic HR derby match against Vlad Jr.
    And of course going blonde and rocking the pearls….Hey, whatever works.

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