Categorized | Mark Timmons

85 to 105

I can see a scenario where the Dodgers win 105 games this year and I can see where they could win 85 games.  This is a hard team to predict.  Here’s why – consider this:

  • Dee Gordon could be the starting 2B or back at AAA;
  • Alex Guerrero could be the starting 2B or in AA;
  • Chone Figgins could be the starting 2B or at home on the couch;
  • Justin Turner could make the team or not;
  • Matt Kemp could be ready in May or miss the whole season;
  • Hanley Ramirez could play 150 games or 50 games;
  • Carl Crawford could hit .255 or .320;
  • Adrian Gonzalez could show MVP form or slip mightily;
  • Injuries could plague the rotation… or not; and
  • The pen could be great… or collapse!

There are lots of variables.  Predictions are simply wishes by fans.  It should be an interesting season.

Here’s my prediction:  NO ONE WILL NAIL THIS!

By the way – I miss that guy in the middle!  Josh Rawitch is on the Darkside now.  BTW, that’s Roger Dodger on the left.

 

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

45 Responses to “85 to 105”

  1. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    “NO ONE WILL NAIL THIS!

    Actually someone probably will. Not because they’re prescient, but because they’re lucky. Predictions for the Dodgers will be all over the map, so by simple chance, there will be those who get it right. 85-105 is probably correct. There is no doubt that this team has the talent to get to 105 or even a little higher. But the trick will be to keep everyone on the field, and for most everyone to have good seasons. So Kemp might be MVP or he might be MDP (Most Disappointing Player). Guerrero and Gordon might both have wonderful seasons, and they might not. And so on and so forth. And you’re right, “predictions” are “wishes”. Which is why I don’t “predict” that the Dodgers will win, but simply “hope” that they will. That doesn’t mean I don’t look at the talent and form an opinion about what I think they will do. But I understand the almost infinite number of variables, and the almost complete lack of control anyone has over those variables.

    I think the Dodgers have the capability to run away and hide, and I also understand that without health they could become a colossal disappointment. Nothing is guaranteed, but like Badger always says, I am confident. But like any knowledgeable fan, I know that there is truth in the words, “that’s why they play the games.”

  2. Adam says:

    Mark, are at Camelback Ranch right now? If so, have you spoken with Logan White about the farm? You did a great interview with him a few years ago.

    • Mark_Timmons says:

      Adam,

      I am not at Camelback, nor will I be this year. I have not spoken to Logan since my last interview.

      Here\’s the kicker… I DON\’T CARE!

  3. Roger Dodger says:

    And here Mark, I thought you would be putting ICE on Grienke’s hurting calf.

    For those going to Camelback (for the first time) — the best time is between 9 am and 1 pm — at the practice fields behind the main game field — for practice drills and minor league games. Talking with other fans and just walking around.

  4. Badger says:

    So who is predicting what?

    You all know I got Guerrero at 2b. The rest of the team will be the limping millionaires sharing time and splitting the ab’s all the way to the finish line. We will win the West and we will do it with around 95 wins. I’ll wait to throw out my individual projections but I will say this with conviction – there are no 162 game players on this team and there are no 20 game winners, but there will be multiple Dodgers on this year’s NL All Star team.

  5. Rob says:

    I with you on this badger, the team may be limping at points but they do have depth.

  6. Badger says:

    “It definitely doesn’t take me out of the mix,” he said. “Hopefully, it doesn’t. But we’ll see how it feels tomorrow.” Zach Greinke

    Definitely it doesn’t. Hopefully it doesn’t. I think that sums up how the rest of us feel. We are definitely hopeful. We are definitely both he and Kemp can actually play baseball.

    In the mean time stay loose Seth. Grab a glove Joc. Everybody else, please do your running.

  7. Pete M. says:

    Mark, I’ll go with 92-94 W easy and if the Queen had a pkg. she’d be King…
    No 20 gm. winners??? Hmmm, you get me to the 6th or 7th with the Beard and Jansen and I think with some luck I could squeeze out a couple…
    I’ll be on the road to Camelback this time next friday for a 4 gm. set… I too will be wandering the back fields admiring the layout and seeing the kids in training…

    • Badger says:

      I may be down there one of those days Pete.

      Even 92 wins should be good enough to win the West. I don’t have any other teams with 90.

      I wonder what these rich guys do over the winter. We know what Puig did. Ate a lot of donuts and drove his car fast. I just wonder if some of them get soft. Crawford allegedly worked out here in Arizona but what did he do? Why, on his first trip around the bases full speed, does he come up lame? Greinke – on the second batter he faces? And Kemp looked like grandpa trying to slide on that play at the plate. I think the Dodgers need some boot camp type training for the first 2 weeks of ST. Come to camp in shape or be gaggin and puking on the outfield grass. I pay you a hundred grand a day to play a game? You are gonna be in shape. I own you dammit. Drop and give me 50.

  8. Pete M. says:

    Wouldnt you love to see the re-instatement of fines or yelling at the player rather than his agent???
    Billy Martin and the good old boys rolling over in their graves… Could you see Donnie pulling CC, Dre or ?? for an OF blunder or lack of hustle???
    Joc staying??? It wont happen with Ned and Donnie…Look at Puig last year and where did his monster numbers get him!??!

  9. Bob says:

    Raining in LA! Rain hopefully heading to Spring Training.

    Funny meaningless LAD stats so far
    9 Pitchers with an ERA of 0.00
    12 Batters with AVE over .300
    8 Batters with BA of .000
    8 Batters with OPS greater than 1.000
    Only 1 Error so far – That is actually a stat to ponder.

    How many of the pitchers with an ERA of 0.00 and a BA over .300 will not make the team?

    Hazelbaker’s best stats of his life?
    Rojas full of hope?
    Baez, Demel, Moskos, Patterson, and Rosin calling home to tell mom there is hope to make the team?

    Spring training is the time for eternal hope, and I am full of hope and beans, but hope should still be within reason for the prospects!

  10. Bobbie17 says:

    I prefer low expectations. That way, you can’t lose. As long as they finish ahead of the Giants, it will be a successful season for me. I do think the team is on the right track in terms of player development, scouting, etc. But the fruits of that labor will be a few years from now when a steady stream of big league players start coming through the minors. I agree with Mark–still a lot of uncertainty. Don’t forget this team played like …until it went 42-8. Don’t expect the good part of that sentence to happen again.

  11. Badger says:

    We have some terrific athletes in our system now.

    Moskos was a 4th overall? I don’t remember him.

    We should have some very good numbers coming out of AA. I don’t really care much about the numbers from AAA. They don’t translate.

    I still believe all our guys will play and play well. Just not every day.

  12. Badger says:

    “The tricky part of the comeback is that if Kemp returns too soon, the bone can be damaged permanently, and there is no way to accurately predict when the bone is fully healed. If Anderson gives the green light, Kemp might begin jogging.”

    The tricky part? Can be damaged permanently? Screw it. I think I might keep Kemp off the field for a LONG time. Maybe even until June.

  13. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I think June is a reasonable return date for Kemp. After he’s ready, take some more time just out of precaution. “Permanently” is a long time. We won the division last year without Kemp. Let’s hope we can do that again, and bring him back later rather than sooner. SVS can occasionally substitute for Crawford/Ethier. Pederson probably needs more time in the minors, if only because he needs to be playing everyday at this stage. And his being lefthanded doesn’t work well with our mix of outfielders.

    • Badger says:

      At this point I don’t care much what the MRI says. I don’t trust the Dodgers medical staff. Or maybe I just don’t trust the Dodgers PR department. Remember when they told us the injury wasn’t serious? It was like – you gonna believe us or your lyin’ eyes. Only a moron would have watched the video of that amatuerish slide into home and the subsequent ankle roll that looked like his foot was about to be torn completely off and believed Kemp would be back soon.

      No. This is too serious. Give him another 3 months of intense therapy and re-evaluate. We need him 100%, or as close to it as he is ever going to get. He is making 5+ WAR money. The only way he gets to that again is to be 100%.

      Actually, according to this article, each win now costs $7 million.

      Yoiks.

      http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/10/15/4818740/how-much-does-a-win-really-cost

      We got less than 3 WAR out of him the last two years combined (for $30 million) so the way I look at it – he owes us.

  14. jerry says:

    kemp will never be the same..three major injury..and a i dont give a shit type guy,

  15. Bob says:

    Another day another injury. Mark’s boy Stripling to have MRI on his, oh sh.., Elbow.

    Can’t wait for the day that the gint mole Conte is fired.

    Need more depth, need more depth, need more depth,

  16. Bob says:

    Lovin the Dodger spring training TV product

    From the box score, nice shutout win, great pitching, 2 HRS, 44 position players in 9 innings. Guess this week is like the first week of 7 year old’s little league.

  17. Quasimodo says:

    I’m able to say I’ve witnessed enough reactions from Kemp when he is interviewed that he very much does give a shit. You can tell when he’s asked a question about the mansion he’s building or anything about his contract that it’ll be the last time he gives any time to that media person. His shoulder wasn’t right and his ankle was still DISLOCATED with torn ligaments and tissue when he slapped center field wall as a statement that is still the guy who was the best in the game. For whatever reasons the franchise was against disclosing the truth and hid what all experts around the world would diagnose the MRI. The expert who diagnosed my MRI when I had a massive stroke did so from who knows where via the web. So I have to guess Dodgers knew the real dope and chose to lie to us. I wish I were able view these ST games. Simply watching them by proxy sucks!

  18. Watford Dodger says:

    Quas – sign up to MLB at bat for the season & watch em on your computer.
    It’s good quality and as your out of area I believe – you should get nearly every game.

    • Badger says:

      I’m thinking about that. Can you sign up for just Dodgers games or do you buy the big package and get them all? Also, if I do this can I easily stream them to my tv? I don’t really want to watch them on a small screen.

  19. Anonymous says:

    “For me, the toughest part is making the double play,” Castro said. “It took me a whole season to feel comfortable, then I asked to go to Instructional League to get better.

    “The double play is harder, because the shortstop has everything in front of him. He can see the runner. The second baseman has his back to the runner and doesn’t know where he’s at, where he’s sliding, if he’s going to get hit.”
    Guerrero

    The pivot at second is determined by where and how hard the ball is hit to left side. Geez. Give me an hour with this kid and he will have it down.

    • Badger says:

      I taught my 13 year old son all the pivot moves in one afternoon. As far as the runner is concerned, you know how close he is getting. It’s a timing thing. Catch pivot release and clear. You need to work on the throw but SS also throw and clear at the same time. I find it hard to believe these professional athletes have a hard time with this. It’s just not that complicated.

  20. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I have MLB.TV Premium, and the quality is fine. Costs $129.99/yr. or $24.99/mo. The non-Premium version costs $109.99/yr., or $19.99/mo. I use my laptop connected to a 27″ monitor. I don’t do it, but I’m almost certain that a large TV screen could be used to stream the games. Here’s a link to MLB.TV.

    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/subscriptions/index.jsp?product=mlbtv&affiliateId=MLBTVREDIRECT

    Stripling is clearly a rocket scientist:

    “Pitching prospect Ross Stripling underwent a contrast MRI on his right elbow, which came up sore nearly a week ago. Mattingly said Stripling never told a trainer or coach until after a one-inning appearance in Wednesday’s game. A ligament injury is suspected.”

    Don’t these guys ever learn?

    • Badger says:

      I’ve got a wireless ready samsung blu-ray DVD player. It has pandora and Netflix on it. Can I run mlb.tv through that?

  21. Michael says:

    Badger, although I’m not an IT tech, you can stream these from your i-phone to your blue ray player[if you have Wi-Fi] or if all else fails a HDMI cable from computer to TV will work. For ensurance of all Dodger feeds[cept games with snakes] you’ll need to purchase the premium package.

  22. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Badger,

    Maybe this will help.

    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/help/faq_index.jsp

    Also, maybe the following MLB.TV customer service number can help:

    (866)800-1275.

  23. Badger says:

    Thanks guys. I appreciate it.

    • Badger says:

      If I make a minimum payment to both the shrink and the ballistics expert, I might be able to pull this off.

      Speaking of psycho therapy, I had a dream that Mark and I were playing golf down in Glendale. He drove one into the cactus, went in to get it and ended up wrasslin with an alligator. I didn’t help because I knew there are no alligators in Arizona. Weird.

  24. Roger Dodger says:

    There is a quote in MLB Rumors about the Giants and how they believe they have out drafted the Dodgers over the past number of years . . . here is the quote.

    “The Dodgers have drastically outspent the Giants over the last couple of seasons but, while Baer says his team’s payroll will remain competitive, he is comfortable with the Giants’ strategy of building through the draft and making big signings only when necessary. “We’re fine with not matching them dollar for dollar because when it comes down to it, it’s an art, not a science, and it comes down to judgments,” Baer said. “Drafting Cain, Lincecum, Posey, Bumgarner, etc…Those were judgment calls, not money calls.””

    Now, I read that – BUT JUST MATCH UP THEIR CAIN, LINCECUM, POSEY, BUMGARNER, ETC. WITH THESE DODGER DRAFTED PLAYERS SINCE 2000:

    Ben Diggins – 2000
    Greg Miller – 2002
    Black DeWitt – 2004
    Justin Orenduff – 2004
    Luke Hochevar – 2005 (did not sign)
    Bryan Morris – 2006
    Preston Mattingly – 2006
    James Adkins – 2007
    Ethan Martin – 2008
    Aaron Miller – 2009
    Zach Lee – 2010
    Chris Reed – 2011
    Jesmuel Valentin – 2012

    OK – so maybe Logan White has some explaining to do . . . .

    • Badger says:

      But……… Logan White is our resident genius!

      I remember talking about this a few years ago. May have been when we drafted Lee and people were daffy about getting a top 10 pick that late in the draft. I posted the results of all those years and with the exception of Kershaw, we dont look so dang good. Fox and McScrotum are memories. Let’s revisit this topic in a few years and see how we look. As for what the midget front office has to say – phuk them.

  25. Badger says:

    I guess he can start running:

    http://www.truebluela.com/2014/3/1/5460130/matt-kemp-mri-baseball-activities

    So……. maybe he can actually play some baseball in April? I would still take it very easy with him. Start with some mad yoga routines. 90 minutes a day.

  26. Mark_Timmons says:

    Roger,

    You are picking the bad and ignoring some of the Dodgers drafts:

    Kershaw, Jansen, Loney, Kemp, Pederson, Puig (not drafted), Seager, Gordon, et al.

    Those ain\’t too shabby!

    • Badger says:

      I believe Jansen was a free agent signing and a lot of those guys were in later rounds. Kemp in the 11th. Outliers. What I look at are the top 3 round picks, with an emphasis on Round 1.

  27. Roger Dodger says:

    Mark,

    In fairness – I looked at the Dodgers “first-round” draft picks from 2000 (13 years), but I did not include these:

    James Loney – 2002
    Chad Billingsley – 2003
    Scott Elbert – 2004
    Clayton Kershaw – 2006
    Chris Withrow – 2007
    Corey Seager – 2012
    Chris Anderson – 2013

    The rest above (at 10:04 this morning), are also 1st round picks for the Dodgers:

    Ben Diggins – 2000

    Greg Miller – 2002

    Black DeWitt – 2004

    Justin Orenduff – 2004

    Luke Hochevar – 2005 (did not sign)

    Bryan Morris – 2006

    Preston Mattingly – 2006

    James Adkins – 2007

    Ethan Martin – 2008

    Aaron Miller – 2009

    Zach Lee – 2010

    Chris Reed – 2011

    Jesmuel Valentin – 2012

  28. Bob says:

    Haren made it through his first start today without an injury. Things are looking up. Maybe Conte is on vacation! Gordon gets a 2 strike bunt today. That is my pick for the highlight of the day. Could be a major sign of an improved player. Still looking for a platoon at 2b this year. I still want to say “a” and not “that” because I do not want to adopt Palin grammar. Reed obviously not ready for prime time with his 4 ERs. Looks like Robinson could be a good 1B/OF at AAA this year. He is in the running to be the guy this year with a great BA, yet is still obviously not ready for MLB. Don’t care about wins until 3/15, just hope nobody gets hurt and all stay on schedule with their individual workout schedules.

  29. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Bob, If you don’t care about wins until 3/15, then you mostly don’t care about wins THIS YEAR in spring training. Dodgers take off for Australia on 3/16, and play the first two regular season games on 3/22 and 3/23 (both 3/22 U.S. time). But they do play the Angels in 3 exhibition games on 3/27, 3/28, 3/29 before opening the regular season stateside with the Padres on Sunday night, 3/30.

    Glad to see that Kemp is at least saying the right things, and plans to take things step-by-step. I am hopeful, but nothing more than that. Only time will tell.

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140301&content_id=68513966&notebook_id=68513982&vkey=notebook_la&c_id=la

    • Bob says:

      Why are you such an arrogant condescending jerk? Anyone who has the arrogant need to tell someone what a person with an IQ of 80 can figure out is certainly an insecure little prick.

  30. Badger says:

    It is an odd schedule. I can see sending a couple of teams to Sydney for exhibition games but certainly not to start the season. I find that very strange. MLB used to send teams to Japan for public relations. To tell you the truth I can see those games being far more important to the dbacks. They are the underdog and we know how much they hate the Dodgers.

    Showing some thin skin there Bob.

    Kemp is saying the right things. However, I question his sincerity. His ego is galactic in size. I have a feeling he is doing everything for himself and has been handed a script by the handlers. I don’t KNOW that, it’s just a gut feeling. Whatever. I only care about what he can do for the team. 140 games at 100% and every day in the post season.

  31. Roger Dodger says:

    I have not read much of Kemp’s statements the past day or two — but sitting by his locker in the clubhouse — maybe he realizes that IF he does not make a full comeback and be a star in this league — it is over. His career, his fame, etc.

    Sure, he is rich and wealthy. But the respect that goes with fame will not be there.

    At future Old Timers games, if they announce his name — people with think, “Oh, he is the guy who was to be THE guy, but he got injured and is a nothing now.”

    There is more to fame than money, it is respect that comes with being someone.

    Hey, ask Braun . . .

    • Badger says:

      History is littered with characters famous for the wrong reasons.

      As for respect, how much does Kemp give? I wish him good health. I also wish him humility.

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  1. [...] 85 to 105 I can see a scenario where the Dodgers win 105 games this year and I can see where they could win 85 games.  This is a hard team to predict.  Here’s why – consider this: Dee Gordon could be the starting 2B or back at AAA; Alex Guerrero could be the starting 2B or in [...]… [...]


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