Just Wait Until Next Year

All of the teams who cruised to 100+ wins in 2023 were bounced from the playoffs in short order. Now, you can believe that there are no excuses, but you have to have your head someone dark to believe that sitting out a week for the Wild Card Round has no effect. I don’t believe in excuses either, but there are reasons, and we would be foolish not to consider what they are.

At least part (if not most) of the reason the Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles (who all won 100+ games) were bounced from the playoffs has to be the week layoff they experienced before their playoff rounds started. So, many of you want to blame Dave Roberts and/or Andrew Friedman, and no matter what I say, you probably still will. You simply don’t want to be confused with facts – your mind is already made up. To those of you who say, “Friedman can build a team that wins 100 games but can’t win in the playoffs“, I say:

To those of you who try to compare Dave Dumbrowski’s “Trade the farm, Go All to in Win One Championship, and Crash and Burn for Six More Years”, I say:

Maybe you love misery, but I love winning year after year. The Dodgers have won one World Series since Andrew Friedman came to town. The only team to have won more (the Asstros) Cheated the Dodgers out of it – Andrew Friedman should have had two. It’s harder than ever to win the World Series because of all the games it now takes. Did it ever occur to you that the reason the Dodgers lost in the playoffs in 2019 and 2021 may be different than why they lost in 2022 and 2023?

When Andrew Friedman came to town, he promised that he would make the team relevant year after year… and he has done just that. Since he came to the Dodgers, they have won the division every year, except the year they won “just” 106 games. He has the best record in baseball since then, and you can always count on enjoying the season every year. The postseason has been another thing.

Contrast this with Dave Dumbrowski, who guts the farm, wins a World Series within two to three years, and then leaves the team as a second-tier non-competitive team, as he moves on to another team to do the exact same thing. Here’s an idea: You can’t win the World Series unless you get to the playoffs, and the Dodgers have done that EVERY SINGLE YEAR since Andrew Friedman came to town.

Assuming that the format does not change (although it might), the Dodgers (as well as Baltimore and Atlanta) will need to figure out how to maintain their edge in the Wild Card Off-Week if they again win the division. The lack of hitting in the playoffs was the Dodgers undoing in 2022 and 2023. Once is an anomaly. Twice is a trend! It’s time to fix what has ailed the Dodgers the past two years: lack of hitting in the playoffs.

Just how do you do that? Well, it does not start with firing the hitting coaches, the manager of the President of Baseball Ops. It starts by playing some competitive games (not batting practice) during that week you are off. Maybe you bring in some minor leaguers who want to showcase their skill, and/or maybe in addition to that, you split the squad into two teams and have a “best of five playoff for bragging rights.” Make it fun and make it so the losers have to pay for the winner’s dinners or some such fluff. It’s obvious that the teams with the “byes” all lost their edge. Houston was in a dog fight until the end and finished with the same record as Texas, but it has taken them some time to get into sync.

  • I do not think Texas was better than Baltimore. But they won.
  • I do not think that Texas has a better team than Houston.
  • I do not think that the Diamondbacks are better than the Dodgers. But they won.
  • I do not think that the Phillies are better than the Braves. But they won.

No excuses – just the facts! Many people do not like the Playoff Format, but if it stays, then you have to adapt. It will be interesting to see what the Dodgers do in respect to that. All I will say is, “Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.”

Open the Door in 2024

The Dodgers have a lot of money coming off the books this year. I won’t bother to list what is happening, as MLB Trade Rumors has already done that. You can find their comprehensive summary here: The Dodgers Offseason Outlook.

The Dodgers have in excess of $100 Million coming off the books in 2024. They can spend more than $100 Million and still stay below the Lux Tax Threshold. Of course, they are linked with Shohei Ohtani, but they could sign two very, very good players for what Ohtani will make, and that may make the most sense. Here are some players that I think the Dodgers will look at:

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto – RHP (Forbes says this about him: “Yamamoto has an outstanding three-pitch arsenal, as one might expect given his dominant resume. Even though he’s only listed at 5’10”, 169 pounds, he runs his fastball into the mid-to-upper 90s. His splitter is an unhittable weapon that induces grounders and whiffs. He also throws a curveball that keeps hitters off balance with an untraditional release.”) https://www.forbes.com/sites/danepstein/2023/09/11/yoshinobu-yamamoto-is-mlbs-next-big-bidding-war/?sh=7225fe013a1a
  • Jung-Hoo Lee – CF (SI said this: “As the son of Jong-Beom Lee, a former KBO league MVP, Lee possesses many of the tools his father carried around throughout his 19-year professional career. Known for his elite bat-to-ball skills, Lee has more walks than strikeouts in his career –– 383 vs. 304 –– and has regularly been considered the best defensive outfielder in the country, winning five straight Golden Glove honors in center field from 2018-2022. He’ll run into one now and then, too, crushing 23 long balls during his MVP campaign.“)
  • Sean Manaea – LHP (a typical Dodger rehab project)
  • Jordon Montgomery – LHP (the Dodgers need a LHP – Just no more than 5 years)
  • JD Martinez – (Why not?) or Justin Turner – (Maybe)

The Dodgers could sign all those players for around $100 Million, and they would not have all their eggs in one big Shoehi basket. How about this:

  • C- Will Smith
  • 1B – Freddie Freeman
  • 2B – Busch or Vargas
  • SS – Lux
  • 3B – Muncy (I know many of you hate that, but .800 OPS guys do not grow on trees)
  • LF – James Outman
  • CF – Jung-Hoo Lee
  • RF – Mookie Betts
  • DH – JD Martinez or Justin Turner

Rotation:

  1. Miller
  2. Yamamoto
  3. Buehler
  4. Pepiot
  5. Montgomery
  6. Manaea

Dodger News

Finally…

Yesterday, I had a Cardioversion which is a medical procedure that uses quick, low-energy shocks to restore a regular heart rhythm. It’s a treatment for certain types of irregular heartbeats (arrhythmias), including atrial fibrillation (A-fib). Cleveland Clinic wanted me to do this first before I had an ablation. Well, here’s the result:

Now, we see if it stays there…

This article has 34 Comments

  1. So that leaves Rojas, Barnes, Heyward, Delucca? Weak! The lineup looks good, but a nice hitting backup catcher would sure make it look much better! Manaea? Maybe, it’s worked before. too bad Brandon Drury isn’t available, that would allow Max to dh and spell Drury at 3rd. oh, forgot about Taylor, still a lot of swing and miss on the bench.

    1. Most hitters today have high strikeout rates. Even the good hitters. Both Mookie and Freddie struck out over 100 times. Back in the day, your .300 hitters rarely did that.

  2. Honestly, what you wrote makes a lot of sense.

    It leaves out Ohtani, who they have pursued since high school, and no Clayton Kershaw, who may opt to retire, but it addressses their most pressing need — starting pitching. One possibility at DH might be Michael Busch.

    I thought Ross Porter made a good point when he pointed out the Dodgers didn’t really suffer organizational failure, the starting pitching just imploded. Andrew Friedman was being kind spreading the blame. No the hitters didn’t hit and if they had the Dodgers may have overcome the pitching meltdown in two of the games. But they were behind early and never caught up. As for Mookie, he’s very streaky and he’s the catalyst. Freddie tends to be more consistent. Neither one came through and the Dodgers never recovered.

    But pitching is really the key. Usually pitching failures have centered on the bullpen, but the relievers did a very good job keeping LA in games.

    Will the Dodgers pass on Ohtani. They’ll certainly try to reach an agreement, lot of pressure building on them to make that happen. Will the Mets, Giants and Red Sox battle the Dodgers for his services. Does Friedman believe he’s a difference maker?

    Winter will be interesting.

  3. Happy for you Mark and the good EKG result. Didn’t see any mention about bringing Kimbrel back as our closer!

  4. Congratulations on your procedure, Mark. hope it lasts for you.

    I for one am not on the Ohtani bandwagon. I think it makes more sense to spread the money around since we have a lot of needs.

    1. 100% agree, and that is why I think they should play some games to keep sharp.

      Here’s what happens: when you don’t stay sharp, you can’t hit thise mistakes that you normall kill!

  5. It could boil down to this:

    Give JDM the Qualifying Offer of $20 Million/1Year. If he takes it problem solved!

    And, you don’t have a boat anchor contract. The deal is: he has to work out with a personal trainer this offseason.

    If he signs with another team, the Dodgers get a pick.

  6. If the Phillies don’t win the Series, then Dumbrowski is going to double-down and re-sign Nola or Snell, along with Hader and another bat. He will go all in for 2024 and the Phillies will suck for 10 more years. It takes no talent to do that!

    1. Here’s what was said of the signing at the time:

      On the final day of the 2015-2016 international signing period, the Dodgers agreed to a reported $2 million bonus to sign Cuban outfielder Yordan Alvarez, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.

      The lefty-hitting, righty-throwing Alvarez is 6’4, 190 pounds, and turns 19 on June 27. Sanchez described him as “an athletic contact hitter who has shown some power.”.

      He was simply an “afterthought – a skinny 18 year-old who turned into Superman.

  7. Yordan had never played a single game in the Dodger system. Not one. He had only been in the organization about a month and a half. People keep bringing this trade up. At the time, it was a smart trade. An untested player for a solid bullpen arm.

  8. Good ideas by Mark to improve the team for 2024. The Dodgers have a very good core, a good farm system, and over $100 million in annual payroll to field a very competitive team.
    Friedman has been a very good GM, and has created a consistently competitive team. However, he did inherit a 94 win team that had won 2 straight divisions, and he was given the second largest payroll in the MLB to improve the team. He also inherited Kershaw, Greinke, Urias, Ryu, Beckett, Haren, Jansen, Baez and Stripling as pitchers.
    And he inherited position players of Seager, Bellinger, Turner, Pederson, Puig, Kemp, Gonzalez, Ethier, Hanley Ramirez, Dee Gordon, Rojas, and others.
    Friedman took a 94 win team, and a $300 million payroll and won 92 and 91 games the next two years. Then, they made the World Series three of the next four years and won a title in 2020. Since 2020, they have been a regular season juggernaut and a failure in the playoffs, being knocked out by sub-90 win teams 4 out of the last 5 years.
    The Friedman resume is very impressive, but Dombrowski also has an impressive resume despite your criticisms. He became GM of the expansion Marlins and won a World Series title in their 6th year. They then won a second World Series title in 2003 with his players, a year after he left for the Tigers.
    Dombrowski took a Tigers team that lost 100 and 119 games in the first two years, and made the World Series in their fifth year. Then they won 4 straight division titles before he left to the Red Sox. In Boston, he won a World Series in his third year and three division titles in three years. He went to Philly and made the World Series in his second year, and now is on the brink of another WS this year. He has won two World Series titles and made the World Series with four different teams. He does not have the regular season record of Friedman, but Dombrowski is also a very good GM.

    I think the Dodgers are lucky to have Friedman, but he is not above criticism. His signing of Bauer to a record contract, the lackluster offseason, and weak additions in the last two trade deadlines are examples. Hopefully, the franchise can perform better in the postseason next year instead of making excuses.

    1. Summed up eloquently. I’m a fan of AF but I’m not ready to anoint him sainthood just yet. I was the one who said he was no Dombrowski when I was predictably called a moron and an apparent drug addict when the blog was closed for comments.

      I never said he was bad or wasn’t supremely competent but I’m just not going to protect him or blindly support him as if he was my own family. Is he good?….yes. Is he great?…not yet—that’s a bridge too far right now.

  9. Never forget ladt is dedicated to the admiration of Andrew Friedman and Dave Roberts and one best not say anything to the contrary or they will be branded stupid moron

  10. Over the past 10 years, what team would you have rather been a fan of?

    I have been a Dodger fan for over 60 years and thus is the best run EVER!

    There is no end in sight.

    Andrew Friedman is a man. He makes mistakes. Plenty it turns out. However, if you are happy to win every 5 or 10 years and tank the rest of the time, there are alternatives.

    1. I have been following since 1955. So in 25 it will be 70 years a fan. This is by far the best stretch ever. Yeah, they won 2 series in the 50’s , 2 in the 60’s and 2 in the 80’s, but it was a lot simpler than it is now.

  11. I’d be happy to win just more than once and have a parade for the first time in 35 years. Of course I love winning in regular season but it’s just not enough

    1. Andrew Friedman has only been responsible for 9 of those 35 years.

      … and he did win one. It should have been two!

      When he started, he said that he intended to make the Dodgers competitive every year, and he has been true to that promise.

      If the Dodgers had won the one stolen by the Astros, it would be an entirely different scenario:

      As it is, the Astros are the only team that has won more World Championships than the Dodgers since Andrew Friedman took over, so I would say “Give it some time!”

  12. Well sorry but I don’t think they were very competitive in recent playoffs. You know when it mattered most and sorry mark I don’t think Friedman and Roberts deserve the pedestal you constantly put them on. A parade represents all dodgers fans getting to celebrate victory together instead of at home wearing masks. And how can you rate a parade knowing you haven’t been to one in at least 35 years. I do think you overrate regular season success. That’s just my opinion and i definitely don’t expect you to agree. I believe you owe me a dollar mark

    1. No they were not, but anyone who thinks that the layoff had no effect on them is nuts. It has to affect your timing. You have to win in the regular season to get there. The one year they did not win the division, they had to win a one game playoff, and that wasn’t easy. It was against one of the better pitchers in the big leagues. They did win it until Taylor hit a walk off homer in the bottom of the 9th. Then they had to beat the division champ in a five-game series. You show me another manager who has led his team to these many consecutive playoff appearances in this era. None. Same with Freidman. The team competes every single season. Dodger fans who cannot see that are simply blind to the fact that winning the whole thing is not that damn easy. I have been following this team for close to 70 years and they have never had a stretch where they were in the hunt year after year. It is impossible to win every year. Putting yourself in a position to just be there is an amazing feat. But Dodger fans are a bunch of spoiled brats and they don’t understand how hard it is to win.

  13. I really , really like your approach on what the Dodgers should do with their money this offseason. All the players you mentioned would be excellent signings.
    That would be one helluva rotation.

    Glad the procedure helped you. Nothing more important than health.##

    Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  14. Netflix has produced a good documentary on David Beckham that had me thinking about Ohtani.
    They are, of course, very different athletes and celebrities–but both are charismatic performers with a global fan following and humungous endorsement income. At Manchester United, Beckham established himself as Britain’s best player and his romance and ultimate marriage to a Spice Girl–“Posh,” fittingly–enhanced his charisma. Ohtani has no Posh, but he is actually better at baseball than Beckham was at soccer.
    For various reasons that aren’t important here Beckham left Man United for Real Madrid, which was already a team of superstars. Beckham was on their level, but not better–and he to put him in the starting lineup he had to change positions. (A bit like Trea Turner taking 2B because Seager was the incumbent.) But the billionaire owner Real loved to collect superstars–and Beckham’s celebrity and charisma surpassed that of all his superstar teammates combine.
    The documentary emphasizes how the marriage of Real Madrid’s global brand and the Beckham brand pushed both entities into a higher stratosphere. From the perspective of pure soccer, Beckham didn’t necessarily make Real better–but from a business perspective, it was pure gold. Real’s owner said the operation actually tripled its revenue after Beckham arrived. That’s what he said: the revenue tripled.
    No doubt the economics of European soccer and America baseball are very different, but I think the global entertainment market is why the Dodgers will go after Ohtani–and also why Ohtani will be receptive. Like Real, the Dodgers have a global mystique, and Ohtani knows the marriage would enhance his brand.
    None of us know what Ohtani will do, of course. But there is a moment in the Beckham doc that reminded me of Mookie chatting up Shohei. Real had just beaten Man United, and the Real star Zidane, who spoke little English, met Beckham for the routine post-game handshake, and asked, “You come to Madrid?”
    In a business sense, I think the Dodgers are playing a different game than 90% of the other teams. If they go after Ohtani and get him, they would have less to spend on others.
    I still think this lineup looks pretty damn good:
    Betts 2B/RF
    Freeman 1B
    Ohtani DH
    Smith C
    Muncy 3B
    Heyward/Taylor RF
    Outman CF
    Busch/DeLuca LF
    Lux SS

    Maybe Vargas forces himself into the mix. Maybe he or Busch get dealt.
    Maybe Yamamoto would want to play with Ohtani. Who knows?

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