Categorized | Mark Timmons

The Dodgers will not keep spending

If we have learned anything about Ned Colletti or Guggenheim, we know that they play their cards pretty close to their vests.  On the other hand, the Yankees are a 3-Ring Circus.  Lately, the Yankees have been making a lot of noise about getting their payroll down to the $189 million luxury tax level in 2014.

Before you dismiss that idea because the Dodgers have more money (they do)… it’s not just about the money.  It’s about losing draft picks.  I am not sure at what level it kicks in (I haven’t researched it thoroughly) -  not only do you pay almost dollar-for-dollar in luxury tax, but losing draft picks is something Kasten loathe to do.

This could cause the Dodgers to have to make some hard decisions.  For example, the Dodgers owe Crawford, Beckett, Billingsley and Ethier about $65 million next year.   Lilly’s 12 mil comes off the books as does Juan Uribe’s $7 million. Mark Ellis,  Capuano and Harang are gone too, leaving close to $100 million of payroll saved.

This is complicated stuff and I will read it in depth some day… just not today!  It could involve trades of the above players for prospects and the Dodgers paying substantially all or a large portion of their salaries.  I just don’t see Kasten losing draft picks.

 Game Notes:

  • Crawford remains hot and Puig is cold.
  • Mark Ellis’ intangibles are off the scale – his health is vital to the team. He’s hitting .277 and with RISP, there’s no one I am more confident in.
  • Kershaw continues to post some sick numbers – 1.96 ERA, WHIP -0.87 – The league is hitting .186 against him.  Several players have more wins, but no one is close to him in dominance.

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About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

22 Responses to “The Dodgers will not keep spending”

  1. Quasimodo says:

    Good morning men. How you doing, Mark? I hope better. Yes, its surprisingly quiet so close to the trade deadline and aside from the bullpen its hard to see what the F/O would feel warrants a trade. And even the bullpen doesn’t look too shabby. So if there’s any changes it’ll probably be inside the organization. I’m pretty happy with pat.

  2. Bobby says:

    Mark, how you feel brotherman?

    Great win yesterday. Hopefully Ryu gets back into a groove today.

    I personally feel that we will try hard for Cliff Lee by Wednesday, but won’t overpay with kids if we take on his whole salary (as Mark mentioned, a lot of guys come off the books next year). Lee’s salary the next couple years will be offset by the salary savings of Cap, Lilly, etc.

    However, if Philly tries to bend Ned over, there won’t be a deal now, and instead, we’ll try the whole waiver claim thing again in the August month with Lee and other higher priced pitchers.

  3. Badger says:

    If I hear you right, what you are talking about, losing draft picks, is not a concern until off season free agency moves are implemented:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130212&content_id=41560238&c_id=mlb

    Moves made before the deadline are under different influences. I just heard a quote from Amaro saying he won’t come out and say he is NOT trading Utley or Lee, suggesting he is open to it. The best move for this team, in my mind, is still Utley. That will allow Ellis some down time going the rest of the way, hopefully insuring he hits .277 and provides some clutch play on rested legs. What would it take to get Utley here? Good question.

    I don’t see us trading any of the “above” players you reference before next off season. With the health issues this team obviously has, we need them all.

    Puig is cold? I thought he was hitting again. Haven’t checked the stats, but will.

    If we are already talking about next year’s moves, I think it’s important to listen to Brooklyn’s clear analysis of what the Dodgers are doing to both prepare for the now, and prepare for the later. This organization appears to be in good hands.

  4. Badger says:

    “Puig is cold”

    You must be talking about his last 4 at bats because before last night, he was 8 for his last 17. Let’s give him more than one game before we say he is “cold”.

  5. AnewBlueDay says:

    I would think that for next season, after some of Mark’s above subtraction of players from the roster (thus salary as well) == they will do major face lift at 3B and 2B and at least one starter.

    Billingsley might be back better than ever, or still, one way or another, the Billingsley we have known the past several years — not one of the big 4.

    Then there is Becket & Fife as starters waiting to see it they really have anything left in the tank. Capuano ? Ryu & Nolasco along with Kersahw & Greinke are there in some order (unless Nolasco has a meltdown and goes elsewhere).

    Down on the farm . . . Magill and others, and you never know if there is a break through.

    Right now the pen line could include: Belisario, Dominguez, Elbert, Howell, Jansen, League, Marmol, Rodriguez, Tolleson, Withrow,Guerra, Moylan . . . and others on the farm.

    Right now it appears like 4 outfielders always talked about. Will Ethier finally get traded for a piece above??

  6. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Actually, I do believe that the Dodgers will keep spending, but just in a more controlled manner. Spending will continue to re-build the player development/acquisition infrastructure, simply because that’s the best way to avoid high priced free agents in the future. What I don’t think will happen, is the en masse importation of high priced talent we saw last year. That was simply a move to address immediate needs, with the plan being to ultimately develop our own via a re-vitalized farm system. But that’s not to say the Dodgers won’t take on additional salary, and pursue a free agent or two over the winter. It will simply be more targeted than it was last year.

    There certainly is a lot of money coming off the books. And that also includes the $4 million being paid to Manny this year, the $2 million being paid to Kuroda, and the $350K being paid to Mike MacDougal. And next year is the last one in which Andruuw Jones will collect $3.375 million. Here’s the details from the TBLA worksheet.

    http://www.truebluela.com/2010/11/30/1840626/dodgers-payroll-worksheet

    I’m not sure if the loss of draft picks is involved if the luxury tax reaches a certain level. Maybe that’s so, so I’ll reserve judgment on that. However, I don’t think the Dodgers have an endless budget, and even their deep pockets do have a bottom. Where that is, I don’t know, but I’m sure it’s there. That said, I’m also sure that the revenue streams are quite considerable. I haven’t looked at the attendance stats, but with the improved play over the past month it appears as if the Dodgers attendance, already high, is continuing to spike up. Looks like this series against the Reds will end up being sold out (or nearly so), and that’s the case with the upcoming 2-game series with the Yankees. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers go over the 4 million mark in attendance this year. And if they get into the playoffs and World Series, that’s just more revenue, from attendance, merchandise sales, concessions, media, and whatever I’m not thinking of now.

    Like Badger said, “This organization appears to be in good hands.”

    I addressed the Puig thing in my last post in the previous thread. It seems that he’s beginning to show more patience at the plate, but is also subject to some regression at times (like last night). I also noticed that he appears to become over-anxious when he’s hitting with runners on base, swinging early in the count, swinging at pitches out of strike zone, and swinging too hard. I think, with him, it’s just going to take time, but that ultimately the light will go on permanently. It’s not an easy thing for the Dodgers to have to live with in the midst of a pennant race, but I don’t think they have any other choice. Hopefully he proves to be a quick study. Otherwise he will be alternately exciting us, and having us tear the hair out of our heads.

  7. AnewBlueDay says:

    Puig is also facing some very good pitchers, with pitching coaches in the background, and catchers trying to locate the pitches so that he will not have an easy time of it.

    Hitting in a game is not batting practice, but when Puig first come up, it seemed like he was getting pitches to drive . . . now so a much now.

    And his power swing, on all pitches, he is finding out — this IS the major leagues.

  8. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    And Roger, he is “finding out”. It’s just a matter of when the lessons will begin to stick for the long term. No guarantee that will ever happen, but I believe it will. Let’s not forget that when Matt Kemp first came up he got hot early, and then began to see lots of breaking balls down and away, and he kept on fishing. Ultimately, over time he got the message, and began to hit consistently, and ultimately began to put up big numbers. The same I think will happen for Puig.

    Of course, having said that, I’m sure there will be some who comment that Kemp is now doing the same thing all over again. If so, I will argue that that’s not the strictly the case. Kemp’s troubles this year I believe are completely related to his shoulder injury. And that includes chasing, either due to his having gotten into bad habits while playing hurt last year, or because he feels the need to get his swing started faster due to the shoulder. If Kemp’s shoulder comes around, so I believe will his swing and discipline at the plate.

  9. jerry says:

    i think owner are stupid ..to pay a salary when the play is no long on a teem…i would never sign a contract of that kind..that just show,s you how stupid the rich are..me and you would never do that…and if we get laid off the salary stop..s this just show us how baseball as gotten out of control.

  10. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Jerry,

    If they’re so stupid and we’re so smart, how come they’re rich and we aren’t?

  11. Badger says:

    Buy it now, pay for it later. It’s the American way.

    Puig will have a young players learning curve. Unlike most players he has way above average talent. He’ll figure it out.

  12. Quasimodo says:

    So does anybody know what ailment Crawford is suffering from causing an E.R. visit with a fever? Schumaker in LF tonight.

  13. Mark_Timmons says:

    I still say that Puig has more talent than any player I have ever seen. I mean, he\’ still hitting a sick .370 and OPSing .990. Holy Crap, Batman!

  14. Watford Dodger says:

    Going tonight – hoping for a laugher!

  15. Badger says:

    Puig may be the best all around player any of us have seen in a Dodger uniform. I felt that way about Raul Mondesi the first few times I saw him too. The question remains – does he have it between the ears.

  16. Badger says:

    PS – we are not as good with Schu leading off. Hope he gets on three times tonight.

  17. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I’m sure the price would be high, but the Dodgers should at least kick the tires on Jeff Samardzjia.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/cubs-listening-on-jeff-samardzija.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

    I think I read somewhere that Schu has good numbers against Arroyo. Maybe he’ll get on 4 times tonight.

  18. Badger says:

    Well shut me up Schu.

  19. Bobby says:

    Another great win. Nice game by Ryu. Diamondsnakes lost. The SF trash just lost.

    Today was a good day!

  20. Quasimodo says:

    25 of 31. That’s simply amazing!

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