Categorized | Mark Timmons

Why the Dodgers Have to Overpay

The answer is very simple:  because they can!

Well, it’s actually not quite that simple, but there are now two types of teams in baseball – the Dodgers and all the rest of the teams.  Since Guggs and Company bought the Dodgers, they have spent money like it is going out of style (and it may be, but I’ll keep politics out).

They established the baseline by overpaying for the team by a huge margin.  They wanted Adrian Gonzales so they were forced to take Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford AND give up  Sands, De La Rosa, Webster and others.  They were also forced to take on $150 million of salary that may become a boat anchor and give up prized prospects to get Gonzo AND YOU ACCUSE ME OF OVERPAYING when I wanted to trade Ethier, Seager, Capuano, Mark Ellis and Withrow for Mike Olt and Ian Kinsler?

Yes, it’s a lot to pay, but not as much as the other trade that the Dodgers made with the Red Sox.  Not even close.

Then, the Dodgers outbid the rest of MLB for Puig and Ryu.  The other teams have noted this.  The Dodgers are pouring tens of millions into their stadium and player development and adding high-octane scouting personnel.  The rest of MLB has also  duly noted this.

I am not criticizing the deal, but I am merely saying that when the Dodgers are now involved in any deal, they will have to overpay… because they can and everyone knows it!

You can disagree with the deal all you want.  I happen to think Ian Kinsler is a smart player and would adjust and thrive in LA as the Dodgers leadoff hitter.  I also think that Mike Olt will be a 3B in the mold of Mike Schmidt (not saying he’ll be THAT good, but he’s THAT kind of player).  I may be wrong about those players, but whoever the Dodgers get will cost them a lot.  They will have to overpay.  If Olt is what I think, they won’t need Seager.   Capuano is not needed either, and neither is Mark Ellis.

Chris Withrow’s star is starting to set, but he still has value.  Essentially, the deal is Ethier and Seager for Kinsler and Olt.  They rest is just filler and fluff!  Overpay, Yes!  Should the Dodgers really expect to overpay?

Yes, and to illustrate why this is, let’s say you put your house up for sale.  Badger goes and looks at it and wants to make an offer, but then you find out that Walgreens wants the property for a store.  The price just went up – because they can afford it.  Supply and demand – from here on, get used to it.  The Dodgers will have to overpay.

The sooner they can get their farm system producing again, the less they will have to pay, which is why they should not sign Michael Bourn.  He will cost them a draft pick… maybe the highest one they will have in a long time.  They need that pick.  They need every pick, so that they can keep from overpaying.

I like Ken’s idea of Dee Gordon is CF.  Other teams also have that same idea.  I just don’t think it can happen in 2013… maybe 2014.  He’ll have to play there a year at AAA… and hit better… and steal better.  I’m just sayin’…

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

60 Responses to “Why the Dodgers Have to Overpay”

  1. Badger says:

    a. as it turns out, they DID NOT overpay for the team. Seemed like it at the time, but as has been pointed out, it was actually money well spent. They will increase the value of the franchise. The process has already begun.

    and 2. much of what was spent so far is for what Boston overpaid Crawford and Gonzalez. And we can go through every roster, even for teams like the Royals and Pirates and find players that are seemingly overpaid. But, I do get your point and it’s valid. The Dodgers are now rich. People will try to fleece them.

    But if you have the right GM, you will not get snookered. Do we? I kinda doubt it. He seems to have been on the wrong end of a lot of bad deals.

    My take on your trade idea. Capuano alone should net a couple of prospects that have ML value. He is a #3 starter for crying out loud. On most people’s value sheets, a #3 starter is worth 2 or 3 prospects. You are willing to toss him in this deal just because we don’t need him. Well somebody out there needs a #3 starter. I hope Jed doesn’t follow your lead and give this guy away.

    In my book, Ethier is a better hitter than Ian Kinsler. All you need to do is look at the stats and read them. Kinsler would probably fit in the Dodger lineup, but if he hits .255 in Texas (which he has 3 of the last 3 years) what would he hit in Dodger Stadium? Personally, I don’t trade Andre for Ian straight up. Guys who hit 30 home runs and drive in 90+ are very difficult to find these days. And I challenge anyone to tell me why Ethier wouldn’t do that for many years in one of the best hitters parks in the Major Leagues. Texas needs Ethier. We need Bourn.

    I sign Bourn and trade Ethier for two-three good prospects. In that way, you cover the loss of one pick for Bourn. I like Bourn in our lineup better than I like Kinsler. But, that’s just me.

    Not sure what to do with Dee, other than work his ass off for the next 3 months. 100 grounders a day every day. 100 cuts in the batting cages every day. Bunts, ground balls, learn the strike zone. If we sign Bourn we can afford to put Dee back at AAA to work on his game.

  2. Badger says:

    Kindler .255 – 3 of the last 4 years like Roid, I am an idiot with my head up my ass.

    Edit please…………

  3. Badger says:

    I’m going back to bed……….

  4. Roger Dodger says:

    It is not Ethier that is a problem. The problem is the Dodgers have no real established lead-off hitter now. If Hanley stays at SS, then Dee has no real position. Thus, no real lead-off hitter.

    To solve this, some want Bourn, who is fast, but an average hitter to this point in his career. So — are the Dodgers stronger with Bourn leading off, hitting .275.

    He stole 42 bases last season. His best three seasons were 2009-2010-2011 with 61, 52, 61. But he will be 30 years old in 2013. He has no power, maybe 2 or 4 or 6 for the entire season.

    Keeping Ethier, 20 to 30 HRs, 90-110 RBIs, hitting about .290-.300. And he does win games with the bat.

    Flip a coin. If Ethier goes, then maybe something good will develop with what they get in return; assuming Bourn is signed.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Just caught up with you guys here in Las Vegas. I was going to start with a little Scripture to add to the Bush comments. Come on guys, shake yourself. Before you know it, we’ll be immersed in March Maddness and ST and this dead time will be a distant memory. Sticking with baseball, I’ve thought all along, Dre is going no where and barring a miracle turnaround DG will be playing everyday at AAA. Hanley will be given a shot at lead off and CC will be a fan favorite. IF a move is made it will be advantageous nearing the end of ST. Now let me put a little $$$ on my Bruins. ND back to 9.5…

  6. Anonymous says:

    P.S. Anan. is Pete M.

  7. Badger says:

    I guess the question is, would I trade Ethier for Bourn and 3 prospects. (2 after we give one up for Bourn)

    The answer is yes. Bourn would play GG outfield, score 100 and steal over 40. I like that at the top of my lineup.

    But, I am not the GM so it likely won’t go down that way.

    If things stay the same, we start the year with no legit lead-off hitter, and nobody other than Kemp (Crawford… maybe) that will score 100 runs. Putting Hanley at the top seems really stupid to me. Gordon likely starts the year in the minors, even though he has nothing left to prove there. So, Ellis it is, I guess. Hopefully that hole in our lineup doesn’t make the difference between us, and the midgets and the reptiles that live under rocks.

    We will outpitch everbody in the division. Hope it’s enough.

  8. Idahoal says:

    I will say it again. Move Gordon to 2nd base and your lead off position is solved. If I really had my way, I would move Ramirez to 3rd base and put Gordon at shortstop. I would trade Capuano for prospects. Why do we continue to want to trade good ball players like Either for others that are not as good as he is. If I was the GM, I would sit tight. If a good deal came along, I would listen. Would a good third baseman help, yes. Would a good 2nd baseman help, yes. Do not give away Either? We have starting pitchers that we can use for trade.

  9. Idahoal says:

    I agree with you Badger that I would trade Either for Bourn and 3 good prospects. I would only do this if I felt Gordon was not in the picture. I still think Gordon can play at the major league level.

  10. Badger says:

    I think Gordon IS in the picture, but I sense the Dodgers won’t show a lot of patience with him. I, and others around here, like the idea of Gordon at second, but I could live with Ellis at the bottom of the order if we get Bourn.

  11. ken says:

    Thank you Mark – you are a genius too!

    How about just sign brother Hairston and wait for spring training to begin?

  12. RoidRage says:

    You all are stupid assholes with stupid ideas, lol.

  13. Badger says:

    Roid is of course right, but that won’t stop any of us.

    Hairston isn’t a bad choice for a backup. But so is Gwynn. That doesn’t give us a varsity lead-off man.

  14. Pete M. says:

    Damn Badger,”Hanley at top, Really Stupid”…You’re hurting my feelings. TG JR. over Hairston? Donnie Baseball has his hands full, but alas we can Mac first sign of problems.

    • Badger says:

      I said it sounds stupid to me Pete. He was our best RBI man last year. You don’t lead off with that.

      And don’t forget, I am an asshole idiot with my head up my ass. Don’t expect a lot out of me………..

      I like Hairston better than Gwynn. But both are just back-ups. It would be nice if we found some real thunder off the bench. Neither of those guys offer that.

      I kind of figured a lot of money would come early on Notre Dame… you know, the Irish, Golden Domer Homer money, bringing the spread down a bit. Then, about now…. I figured the spread might get as high as 13 as more money poured in on the favorite. I don’t know what to think now, other than I still think Alabama wins this game. I won’t bet on it though.

  15. Pete M. says:

    Last N.D. Title in 1988….Hmmmm..Could it be Mayan or what??? Dear God let us give one more to Vinny…

  16. RoidRage says:

    I finally made a point that everyone agrees on, lol.

    Now on to a post that many will argue with, Alabama wins by 13.

    Another point that everyone will agree on: there are way too many bowl games. I hate rewarding mediocrity, really one 6-6 team player a 7-6 team, come on now, you aren’t fooling anyone. There has to be other ways for the TV channels to make money, aren’t there?

    I can hear it now, coming from the fans at the game “WE’RE NUMBER 38, WE’RE NUMBER 38!!!

  17. Pete M. says:

    Agree Rage…Damn theres more next year with the new playoff system. Shouldnt have to wait 5-6 damn weeks for the real stuff!!!

  18. Reggie says:

    I’m taking the points and Notre Dame.

    If you are smart, you will too.

    Shoot – I will take Notre Dame straight up, Rudy!

    • Badger says:

      You just never know with these games but I lay the 9.5 tonight.

      Watching the UCLA Baylor game and this is a good example of why betting on sports is a fools errand. UCLA looks like they don’t want anything to do with this game. It isn’t the Rose Bowl so who gives a sh*t. Embarrassing.

      But in the big game, you can bet Alabama will be ready. I just don’t see Notre Dame’s offense being good enough to stay with them. But, again, you never know. I don’t care about either team really, so I have no vested interest. I can see those who care are really into it.

  19. Michael says:

    For all you Dee lovers out there, Maury Wills didn’t arrive until he was 27. I also noticed that he had a lifetime fielding % of .955. If Dee could learn how and where to bunt nobody would remember his gaffes in the field just like I didn’t of Mr. Wills. The one thing I will say about Flashes’ kid is that he is so skinny he doesn’t even have a shadow.
    Mark is spot on. Once Dr. Frankenstein builds this monster it will be ” Happy days are here again”
    Patience, we are in good hands

  20. ken says:

    Times have changed from the days when a SS could win the Gold Glove with 36 errors and the MVP with a OPS+ of 99.

    • Badger says:

      Excellent point.

      But 104 stolen bases looked pretty good on the stat sheet. And, 130 runs scored and a 6.0 oWar from a guy with an OPS of .720 tells you how incredibly valuable he was to a team that won 102 games.

      But, it’s my opinion Tommy Davis (or Willie Mays) should have won the MVP that year.

      You know what I find interesting, if you look at Wills’ stats, which I just did, you see that in 1962 he played in 165 regular season games. That is a record that will never be broken.

  21. Badger says:

    Scott Hairston is still sitting there. an .803 OPS from a 4th outfielder is pretty darn not too bad. I think the Dodgers could give him close to 400 at bats, as he does play second base too. Maybe even some third base.

  22. Roger Dodger says:

    I believe, Ken, in some of our eyes, major league pitching was better then.

    I wonder if we put a list of the top 15 or 20 pitchers in the 1960s and a list from 2002-2012 — yes, each era has its standout pitchers, but across the majors might be different, I do not know.

    How they would compare? Hitters having to face each group, not for just one game, but a full season.

    On Jan 1, 2010, Bleacher Report posted an article: MLBs 10 Best Starting Pitchers of the 1960s . . .

    Juan Marichal
    Bob Gibson
    Sandy Koufax
    Jim Bunning
    Don Drysdale
    Sam McDowell
    Dean Chance
    Jim Kaat
    Mike Cuellar
    Jim Perry

    Here is the list of name of pitchers in the 1960s who pitched 200 GAMES or more

    Here are the 69 starting pitchers from the 1960s that reached at least 200 games (listed in alphabetical order):

    Steve Barber, Wade Blasingame, Steve Blass, Dave Boswell, Bob Buhl, Ernie Broglio, Bob Bruce, George Brunet, Wally Bunker, Jim Bunning, John Buzhardt, Don Cardwell, Dean Chance, Tony Cloninger, Roger Craig, Mike Cueller, Ray Culp, Bennie Daniels, Al Downing, Don Drysdale, Sammy Ellis, Dick Ellsworth, Jack Fisher, Bob Gibson, Ruben Gomez, Mudcat Grant, Bob Hendley, Glen Hobbie, Joe Horlen, Al Jackson, Larry Jackson, Pat Jarvis, Ken Johnson, Jim Kaat, Sandy Koufax, Jack Kralick, Lew Krausse, Denny Lemaster, Jim Maloney, Juan Marichal, Mike McCormick, Sam McDowell, Jim McGlothlin, Denny McLain, Dave McNally, Bill Monbouquette, Jim Nash, Phil Ortega, Claude Osteen, Jim O’Toole, Milt Pappas, Camilo Pascual, Jim Perry, Gary Peters, Tom Phoebus, Juan Pizzaro, Johnny Podres, Bob Purkey, Ray Sadecki, Jack Sanford, Bob Shaw, Chris Short, Sonny Siebert, Dick Stigman, Mel Stottlemyre, Ralph Terry, Bob Veale, Ray Washburn and Earl Wilson.
    The Honorable Mentions

    Here are the 10 starting pitchers that just missed the top 10 for various reasons (listed in alphabetical order):

    Joe Horlen, Jim Maloney, Dave McNally, Claude Osteen, Milt Pappas, Camilo Pascual, Chris Short, Sonny Siebert, Mel Sottlemyre, and Bob Veale.
    —-

    All of this by saying, IF there was better pitching across the majors in the 1960s, then averages would be down, or hitting down in that time — but that raises another question: how do the hitters then compare with the hitters today?

    Names like:
    Frank Robinson
    Harmon Killebrew
    Hank Aaron
    Willie Mays
    Roberto Clemente
    Billy Williams
    Carl Yastrezemski
    Ron Santo
    Vada Pinson
    Dick Allen

    This is just a start . . .

    In the end — each baseball era should probably be based on it own.

    • Badger says:

      Most of us who were around back then KNOW pitching was better. And for good reason. The strike zone was larger and the mound was higher… especially in Dodger Stadium where it is rumored to have been at least 3″ higher than any other mound in baseball.

      One has to wonder what Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle would have done with a strike zone the size of a box of corn flakes – and a 10″ mound.

      • ken says:

        My main point was the # of errors for a gold glove winner. Gumby might be able to get down to 36 errors in a full season and who would call him a gold glove SS?

  23. Badger says:

    I could live with 30+ errors if he covers a lot of ground, is at the top of league in assists and scores over 100 runs.

    • ken says:

      Lets platoon Gumby at 3B and see if his arm falls off and/or
      any peanut vendors sue the dodgers for getting beaned in the head :)

  24. RoidRage says:

    Who the hell is Gumby? Although I do own vintage Gumby and Pokey figures, I have no idea who you guys are talking about (bunch of stupid assholes)

    • Badger says:

      Hey rage, get off the PED’s. Gumby is last year’s starting shortstop. You remember him. He was the Dodgers highest rated prospect who now is basically out of a job.

      I always thought the throws from third were much easier than from short. Second base is a better spot to move him. We don’t need another outfielder (except a backup and he ain’t that).

      I still think Gumby’s value is as a starting Major League shortstop, if not for us then for somebody else.

      • Michael says:

        The best possible thing that could happen is Donnie tells Dee he is the starting SS and leading off from the getgo [nothing better than a shot of confidence] and let him play himself out of the lineup if that is his destiny.

        If Hanley cries, tell him he sure isn’t bigger than Miggy and shut the f-up.

        If roid rage stands for Hemmeroid rage I understand your angst

  25. Roger Dodger says:

    Looked at the trade news that the Dodgers are kicking the tires on Brian Wilson, as so to speak.

    Looked his record up. Nice. Then noticed his combined salary to date: $22.3 million.

    In a totally different era, his combined lifetime season salary was $431,000. Under a half a million dollars.

    Today that is about a major league base salary.

    Gee, I wonder what I would bring on today’s market?

  26. Pete M. says:

    Do we have any old farts who remembers Garvey? Now that was worth the admission.

  27. Roger Dodger says:

    . . . worth the admission?

    to a game

    to the Hall of Fame

    to . . .

  28. Bill Russell says:

    Damn we’ve got a bunch of oldies in here so that’s why I fit in nicely. As to Badger, were we not all high school broad jumpers? Well maybe not Harvey Levin. Didn’t Willie Davis make 3 errors in one inning? It’s sad to think that’s Willies claim to fame.

    I’m still thinking Neds not finished before the spring. We have two many starters and not enough proven infielders. Gumby or Flashes seed, should be given the chance to start at short but I don’t think Don’s got the balls. It will interesting to see if Donny can make it through the season with all the high expectations that are now put on him. He may be too green to handle this much pressure. It will be interesting to see this all play out but we are in a hell of a better postion then we were last year. Even with Donny behind the wheel. Go Blue

  29. Roger Dodger says:

    Billy, you are saying what many of us have been thinking . . . with some of these high flying players, some of them just might feel they are “special” and it is more about them than the total team.

    (( And Donnie just might not have the where-with-all to deal with that in the clubhouse. ))

    Hanley seem to be that way. Kemp could come into that way of thinking, since the sports writers and fans has crowned him as “this is Kemp’s team.” I believe Mark is one of them. A-Gon, who I know nothing about, could be in that line of thinking. Beckett, don’t know about him.

    But the key seems to be Hanley. I kind of hope that Dee has a great Spring Training and opens some eyes with his playing. Then I hope that Hanley see that and realizes that maybe he just needs to move to third base and help the team win from that position.

    Oh well, it is still December, but I can smell the glove oil right now.

  30. Badger says:

    “As to Badger, were we not all high school broad jumpers?”

    I get it.

    Some of us can remember when the long jump was still called the running broad jump. Willie Davis was one of the best in the L.A. school system and ran a 9.5 hundred.

    “Didn’t Willie Davis make 3 errors in one inning? It’s sad to think that’s Willies claim to fame.”

    Are you kidding me? You need to read up man. Did you ever see him play? Willie Davis was one of the best center fielders of his day. He won 3 straight Gold Gloves, scored over 1200 runs, stole nearly 400 bases and retired with over 2500 hundred hits, including 138 triples (16 one year). In the minors, he scored from first on a single 9 times. Willie was a legend. He was fun to watch. The Dodgers could use a guy like him right now. Heck, anyone could use a guy like him.

  31. Bill Russell says:

    I hear ya badge, I’m a few years younger but I do remember Willie and Tommy Davis. Met Tommy at Dodger Stadium two years ago.

    Just finished watching the Lakers Kick Portland back to Oregon.

  32. Badger says:

    Tommy was the first autograph I ever got. He was driving a brand new white Cadillac with a beautiful woman by his side. My buddy Stevie Castro stood in front of the car so he couldn’t go anywhere, pointed at me, Tommy laughed and signed for me. Great moment. 1960.

    Willie Davis could go first to third faster than anyone I have ever seen. I wonder how many professional baseball players ever had 9.5 speed?

    Willie, Maury and Tommy all scored over 100 runs in 1962. That really was a great Dodger team. Koufax, Drysdale (314 innings pitched), Podres, Perranoski Wally Moon, Jim Gilliam, Ron Fairly, Johnny Roseboro, Duke Snider ….. what a team.

    But, then there were those midgets. They also won 102 games that year. ooooohhh I hates those midgets.

  33. RoidRage says:

    Yeah I remember that guy, just never heard him referred to Gumby, except in here. Trying to figure out how he got that gloss in any event. Unless he can morph into other sizes and drive toy cars or something or worked as an exotic dancer in the Pokey Show in Tijuana.

  34. Rob says:

    Looks like Seattle is asking for eithier again, what would they give up in exchange?

  35. Badger says:

    Gumby isn’t the handle I would give him. How about Flash? No? Then how about Slash? Slash Gordon. I like it. Slash it through the infield, steal secon and score on a single. Easy squeezy.

    Ethier would not like hitting in Seattle. That place is as bad as L. A. for killing bats. He would rock in that Texas park. But, who cares if they give us what we want.

  36. RoidRage says:

    In fact, Willie Davis dropped three flyballs in the WS against the Twins, Dodgers were swept in 4 if I remember correctly. The fact is, it was one of those bright cloudless days in LA and Willie lost the balls in the sun, brutal way to be remembered and scored in the score book. But it is what it is, and Willie was actually a kick ass fielder and ballplayer.

  37. Badger says:

    It was the Orioles and what I remember about it was a record breaking weak ass offensive performance by the Dodgers. They scored 2 runs in four games. Balls lost in the sun (technically not errors) was the least of their problems in that series.

  38. RoidRage says:

    I stand corrected, I was just a tadpole during that WS. I just know my mom had tickets to game 5 and Willie Davis screwed her out of going to the series. Willie Davis became a curse word from that point forward in our house.

    • Badger says:

      Willie didn’t lose that game. The Dodgers got shut out. You don’t win ANY game when you don’t score any runs. You and your family been blaming the wrong person for 48 years.

      Now you must pay.

  39. Pete M. says:

    Merry Christmas to all again and a safe and great New Years!!!
    If you do imbibe, think smart. CHP and local PD are as serious as a heart attack.
    Back from Vegas, humbled by the my bowl games bets. I’ve had better years to say the least. After the UCLA debacle, I knew I was in trouble…
    Oh well, some interesting stuff besides football…2013 WS winner odds posted. Tigers and Angles 5-1….LAD 6-1…Shocker (I think) NYY at 8-1…
    Roger D… A couple days ago I was referring to the Dodgers experiment with Steve Garvey at 3B…It truly was something to behold. This was in response to Dee G. at 3B proposal???

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