Reality Check

We have already talked about the significance of the Winter Meetings beginning today in Nashville. I feel the odds are pretty good that by tomorrow, there may be some significant movement, but you can never be sure. Any team is one blown-out elbow away from a ruined season. The Yankees of 2023 were a prime example of that. Their signing of Gerrit Cole continues to be outstanding, but the acquisition of Carlos Rodon has been a dud (so far). They were a team that was expected to go deep into the playoffs, but they crashed and burned.

Corbin Burnes could be the ace the Dodgers covet, or his arm may need the dreaded Tommy John. To a large degree, player acquisition is a crapshoot. You scout, you analyze, you do a physical, and you roll the dice! Yamamoto may be an Ace… or another player who failed to live up to his press clippings. Shohei Ohtani is a man who puts on his pants the same as anyone… and he will be 30 years old on July 5th. Players generally decline in their 30s, but who can guarantee anything?

Signing Ohtani is a baseball decision, not a marketing decision. The Dodgers brand is more known worldwide than practically any other sports team. Andrew Friedman is charged to win, not market, and he will make the final decision. If Shohei Ohtani becomes a Dodger, it is because they believe he will improve the team.

JP Hoornstra said that “a lot of old-time baseball fans forget that the NL Winner no longer plays the AL Winner for the World Series. It’s more of a crapshoot than it is a Championship.” That’s the reality of the baseball world we live in.

Since 2017, here is the record and result of the Dodgers by year:

  • 2017 – 104 Wins – Lost the World Series to the Cheaters
  • 2018 – 92 Wins – Lost to the Red Sox (a better team)
  • 2019 – 106 Wins – Lost the NLDS to the Nats who were red-hot at the end of the season
  • 2020 – 60 Wins – Won the World Series in the longest playoff ever (were on pace to win 116 games)
  • 2021 – 106 Wins – Lost the NLCS to the World Series Winners – Atlanta Braves
  • 2022 – 111 Wins – Bounced from the playoffs by a team they dominated in the first round
  • 2023 – 100 Wins – Bounced from the playoffs by a team they dominated in the first round

Of course, many fans talk about how Roberts can’t manage, and Friedman cannot build a team that wins in the playoffs. Both statement brand the sayers of them as delusional morons. The playoffs are a crapshoot, and you need outstanding pitching to win… except the Rangers and the Diamondbacks, who had a 4.26 and 4.48 team ERA for the postseason. That was the worst in recent history! The Dodgers starting pitching was bad last year, but they had a 4.06 ERA – go figure! Every team that won 100 was bounced from the playoffs in short order.

The Dodgers could sign Ohtani and a bunch of other players for a total of $200 Million at the Winter Meetings and get bounced in the first round of the playoffs, or they could stand pat and win the World Series. I am not saying that actually could happen, but it could! No matter what your mouth says – it’s still a crapshoot! Still, you have to try and put yourself in the best position to win.

Dave Roberts has the best winning percentage of any MLB Manager – EVER! Under Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers have the best record of any team… by far! Damn I wish they were perfect, and this was a perfect world – It is not!

It’s somewhat of a crapshoot after the regular season, and those are the rules we have to play under. Still, the Dodgers will try and get a lot better! They will spend upward of $100 Million in doing so. If forced to bet… I would bet that Shohei Ohtani will not be a Dodger. I am not a hater – Just a Realist!

Here we go!

This article has 145 Comments

  1. I don’t agree that Andrew will have the final decision in Ohtoni. it will be the ownership group’s final decision and for how long and how much. Ohtoni is all about Return on Investment and his immense talent. Look for opt outs in the contract when officially signed.

    1. “A friend of Ohtani said he believes Ohtani already knows where he wants to sign. He’ll go through the process — standing back as his agent negotiates and works to goes through the final numbers — but in the end, Ohtani will drive this thing. So maybe the bidding doesn’t matter that much, so long as the team he wants to play for steps up with a decent offer. And my guess is that’ll be the Dodgers. “

    2. As of October 2022, about 65 thousand Japanese residents lived in Los Angeles. Los Angeles therefore had the highest number of Japanese residents among any city outside of Japan.

  2. Carlos Rodon was a bad Yankee signing. It was well known he had an injury history before he was signed. The Yankees will suffer with his contract for 6 more years. Brian Cashman has made numerous mistakes signing pitchers except Gerrit Cole.

    1. Rodón’s injury history is lengthy and includes Tommy John surgery in 2019, arthroscopic shoulder surgery in 2017, shoulder fatigue in 2021 and the same forearm strain this past season .

  3. good morning! i , like thousands of other dodger fans wake up today knowing just as much today as we did this time last week! it’s probably a 40 percent chance AF signs ohthani. it could all depend on how. badly he wants to be a dodger. if he doesn’t , i hope he resigns with the angels or the blue jays. keep him out of the NL! a fan for 60 years earns my right to wish! if not ohthani then who? i still say hoskins is a good choice. he doesn’t have to play a position, he can dh . i also believe either vargas or busch ends up traded this week. i guess the best option would be to keep vargas. i think he can be a better 3rd baseman than Busch. if muncy gets injured. But! if mookie stays in right busch could be a really good 2nd baseman, especially since his arm doesn’t seem to be as strong as vargas’s. Adamas is interesting at short, but that .214 average last year! that would give them 2 players on the left side of the infield with sub .225 averages! i know , Max is an on base “machine “ . but still a concern. oh well, just my opinions and they don’t mean squat! next few days will be exciting for some teams, and not so much for others. we cou be pirates, rockies, tigers, oakland, or royals fans. no disrespect meant but they ain’t spending! this time next week,we’ll be overjoyed, slightly satisfied, or plain disappointed! but opening day we’ll be in our dodger blue cheering them on. which i plan to do till i no longer can! baseball is the greatest game on earth! oh by the way, i told y’all few weeks ago to beware of Alabama. got a sneaky suspicion they get bumped up into the playoffs! probably not right , but it might happen. college basketball really heating up! great , can’t stand NBA anymore! a Bronco fan, (not much of Russ Wilson fan) so that’s kind of neat watching Sean Payton do his thing. hope everyone has a great week! going to Charlotte tomorrow for stem cell injections on my knee! can’t wait! still playing basketball, and doctor said in a few weeks i’m gonna be running around again!

  4. Okay, the fantasy is over and I’m lowering my expectations.

    That’s after reading an LA Times story yesterday by Jack Harris who warned there is a possibility the Dodgers might miss out on Ohtani and Yamamoto. He pointed out the Dodgers again fell short in the bidding for Aaron Nola, just like other free agent pursuits in the past. Just like Cole, Seager and Harper. Now I always thought Nola wanted to stay in Philly, but the Dodgers again fell short in the bidding. Hey, we’re the Dodgers. It’s what we do.

    Maybe this year will be different, but probably not.

    No matter the Dodgers will land Lucas Giolito or Flaherty. No Snell or Montgomery. Honestly I don’t want them to sign either one. Maybe Friedman makes a trade for Dylan Cease. Or another starter.

    No big deal. The Dodgers will still win a hundred games and the NL West. They will use Walker Buehler and their young pitchers and free agent pitching projects to fill the stadium with nearly four million fans. Signing JD Martinez will solve the DH. They have the hitters and the bullpen, all they really need is to land Cease and have a couple of the projects regain form.

    Now Friedman might come out of the chute swinging and nail a big deal or two. He pointed out a lot of things are beginning to come together. Sounds like trade jargon. Or the meeting with Shohei went well. Some of this could happen in Nashville or a few days later, he indicated.

    But don’t fret the Dodgers will still be good, likely very good. But probably without signing the Unicorn or the best Japanese pitcher. Such is life in LA, lots of hype, expectations and a letdown.

    1. I think that’s a CYA story.
      The LAT’s Dodger beat writer doesn’t want to be embarrassed.

    2. Excellent points. The Dodgers can build a very good team without spending $600 million on Ohtani or $200 million on Yamamoto, Snell or Montgomery.
      Homegrown players who have sacrificed for the Dodgers like Seager, Pederson, Bellinger, Ryu, and Turner are let go instead of extending and without getting any trade value. And now they are considering paying Ohtani a guaranteed $600 million, when they will only guarantee Walker Buehler $8 million this year. Buehler is the same age as Ohtani and has been a better pitcher in the MLB. Buehler has a career record of 46-16 and era of 3.02. Plus he has been great in the postseason with a 2.94 era and Dodgers are 10-6 in his starts.
      If you can afford $600 million for Ohtani, then surely you can extend Buehler who has been a key Dodger contributor for the last 6 years.

      1. Why would you extend Buehler now?

        Wouldn’t you want time to evaluate the state of his arm after the rigors of at least some MLB-level pitching?

        1. You extend Buehler now in order to get a shorter deal at lower cost for the team. This would give Walker some insurance while not committing the team to a 8-10 year deal. Maybe a 3 yr extension at $20-$25 million per year with incentives for starts and Cy Young votes.
          The alternative is to just pay Walker $8 million this year and then if he pitches well, let him become a free agent where he will command more than Nola/Snell/Montgomery level of $200 million. That is the typical Friedman approach which causes you to lose Seager, Turner, Greinke, Ryu, etc to free agency.

    3. How can you fall short if you were never in it to begin with? There offer was up there with Philly and they said someone offered more than Philly. They even said he didn’t want to come to LA. And that has happened to the dodgers several times, they just don’t want to come to LA it is what it is, but it’s not for lack of trying.

  5. Bottom line is this: no matter if we pay Shohei $50mil a year or $15 mil a year, and no matter if he hits .280 with 30hr and 90rbi, or whether he hits .300 with 50hr/130rbi, we’ll be be deciding if he was worth it in October 2024.

    Carry us in October, and nobody will care what he got paid or how he did in July vs the Pirates. Suck in October (like Mookie and Freddie and Kershaw), and we’ll say he was a waste of time even if he wins unanimous NL MVP in 2024.

    That will be the case with Kelly, Heyward, Yamamoto, Burnes, Adames, Giolito, Hoskins, or anyone else we’ve all discussed the past few weeks. How they do in October (to be determined) will decide if any new player was worth it. This is the reality of this current Dodger run. October is all that matters now.

  6. I got a nauseating gut feeling they do sign Ohtani, do not acquire any front line starters. Get some reclamation projects and a strikeout prone outfielder who needs to be platooned. Have a good regular season, get bounced early once again. Mark will get a bigger defense lawyer chair, blaming it on being a crapshoot, bringing up the good years over and over and over and talking about chess and checkers

  7. whoa! rough on Mark! like i said earlier, we will experience (1) joy! (2) slight satisfaction. (3) despair. 600 million ? NO! 500 million? NO! 5 years at 60 a year with incentives and an opt out? you tell me! Bear , Patsy Cline was an absolute lifetime talent! Whitney Houston was good. took my wife to see Natalie Cole a few years ago. Absolutely amazing voice. also saw Allison Krause, loved it! but maybe my favorite female singer of all time, Ann Wilson of Heart! seen them 3 times. WOW! love Stevie Nicks, and Christine McVie! was never a huge Johnny Cash fan , but love Rosanne Cash. Taylor Swift is a pretty girl and a worldwide star! i don’t know even 1 of her songs! check in later!

    1. Tay-Tay is a huge talent. She’s totally legit, someone who has been writing and performing hit songs since she was a young teenager. (I know people who used to lump her with Disney creations like Brittney Spears and Miley Cyrus, but he is more a Nashville natural.) Her body of work fills a few albums now. If you want to understand the fuss, check out YouTube, including her Grammy performance of “Mean” (which I understand was NOT inspired by Mark Timmons.)
      And yeah, it doesn’t hurt that she’s pretty.
      Oh, one of her early hits is about a high school girl in the bleachers who pines for star QB… I guess superstar tight end is close enough.

  8. None of us should care what the Dodgers sign Ohtani for, it’s NOT our money. Ticket prices will go up, food,at the Stadium will go up along with parking and Dodger merchandise. Your choice and control of the situation is don’t attend any games. But you know something even if you don’t go, the stadium will be packed almost to capacity every game even with increased prices.

    1. I know that whether or not Ohtani is a Dodger that 2024 is going to be a great year. For some fans, that is not enough. It is for me.

  9. The Dodger model is a good one — build a team with depth that wins the regular season, and make a a few trade deadline moves to win it all. We should have won in 2017. And, the year we traded for Sherzer and T Turner would have likely been another title if not for the rash of injuries (i.e., Muncy, JT, …).

    I see the Dodgers trading some prospects to get a veteran arm for a year or two while they see how Miller and Pepiot mature, and also see what they have in Buehler and May. Having a strong bullpen will help with this strategy, which we’re starting to see come together.

    I would like to see a power RH bat to complement W Smith and Mookie. Seems like we have plenty of LH sticks with Freeman, Muncy, Outman, and Heyward.

    Regarding Ohtani, I wonder if the reason a contract is taking so long is that teams are balking at his asking price. For $300m plus, teams/fans expect a Mookie, Machado, Harper, Judge. We’ll never know with his agent being so secretive, but just a thought. His surgery really messed with his plans!

  10. “His surgery really messed with his plans!” This! I wonder how it is affecting his negotiations. I have heard more than a couple of insiders talk about selling him on being a reliever now. That shouldn’t cost you $50 mil a season.

    1. I don’t get how he can function as a reliever. How would he “get ready”? Can you send the DH to the bullpen? What if he’s on base or due up?

          1. If he pitches 6 innings and gets taken out as the pitcher, does he also have to leave the game as a DH?

            Did he leave every start early as the hitter, if he was taken out as the pitcher?

            I ask as i do not know/recall.

  11. MLBTR story this morning said that Ohtani probably will not make his decision known by the end of the meetings or the end of the week. Most likely, it will be after the meetings are over. That could change, but right now it seems to be the case. The Dodger roster currently stands at 39. There have been two free agent signings, Kelly and Heyward. There are 23 pitchers, 4 catchers, 4 outfielders and 8 infielders on the current roster. Before they make any additions to the roster there needs to be some movement of multiple players. I see a trade coming before a signing. And the trade would have to include more players leaving than coming back. Or, they are going to have to trim the roster by cutting some players loose.
    There are 3 or 4 pitchers who I would consider fringe guys who could be let go. Almonte, Gonzalez, Hudson, and maybe Yarbrough. Likely trade bait would be the kids, Sheehan, Stone, Vargas, Busch, Vivas. I think the Dodgers consider Pepiot, and Miller pretty much untouchable.
    But just what AF has in mind remains to be seen. No matter what happens, the groundwork is now being laid.

  12. Bobby, you asked above if Ohtani has to leave the game as a DH if he’s taken out as the pitcher.

    They put in the “Ohtani Rule”, I believe before the 2022 season, which states that if a starting pitcher is also the DH he can remain in the game as the DH if taken out as the pitcher.

    Problem solved.

  13. You better watch out
    You better not cry
    You better not pout
    I’m telling you why (why)
    Shotei Ohtani is coming to town

  14. I agree with Mark that getting to the playoffs year after year after year is the goal and enjoyable, even without a lot of championships, at least for me it is.

    But good pitching beats good hitting in the playoffs and right about now the Dodgers don’t have that. And I’m not talking about a starting pitcher or pitchers that apparently have the tools to be an ace, that have never been a consistent ace, that’s called hoping. I’ve hoped for a lot of things throughout my life and almost all of them didn’t happen.

      1. 2020 championship year, 5 starting pitchers put up ace or near ace numbers and none of them were traded for, they were all home grown.

  15. Dodgers would be better off signing Rhys Hoskins Yamamoto Snell and Giolito then signing Ohtani. Why Rhys can Dh play Left field and first base when Freeman can DH. Yamamoto because he would be number one then cy young Snell your number two and then Buehler and Miller and Pepiot name a better starting six then that. And sign Keke as well he can play the infield and outfield as can taylor can that’s what the dodgers want guys that can play else where. Not Ohtani who can only be a DH this year. And what the heck sign Joc Pederson he can come back and lighten up the clubhouse with him and Keke back. Going to be fun like they say being the kids back together for a world series run.

    1. Bradley, Snell will never pitch for the Dodgers. Not a chance. No chance Joc Pederson returns either. He is out of shape, can’t hit lefties and his fielding has gone in the tank. Kike might be back, but at this point in time, they have ZERO roster flexibility. Before anyone is signed, they need to clear roster space. There are 39 players on the roster right now with two free agents added, yet not on the roster, that makes 41. Yamamoto’s asking price is approaching 9 figures. Signing a pitcher for that long has not been something the Dodgers have done in the Freidman era. We are talking 5-8 years. Longest any pitcher has been signed to by AF is Jansen who got 5 years for 80 mil. Longest any starter has gotten is the 4 year, 48 million dollar deal he gave McCarthy, and that did not work out well. Largest of course is the three-year disaster that was Bauer.
      It has also been reported that Ohtani’s deal could hit the 600 million mark. If that is the case, let him go somewhere else. Burnes less likely to be traded with the Brewers on the brink of bringing back Wade Miley, which gives them a pretty decent rotation. The central in the NL is a very winnable division for them. I think if they trade it will be for someone like Cease, not Burnes. I also think if they sign a free agent pitcher or three, it will be someone like Imanaga, Rodriguez, Lugo, Giolito, or Flaherty.
      They are also rumored to be interested in Mitch Garver. He can catch or DH. Hader, Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger, not on their wish list. There has also been no chatter about any interest in Hoskins. And Hoskins is coming off of an ACL tear in his left knee. That is his plant leg. His swing could be affected so there is a chance he won’t be the same hitter for a while. The clubhouse is not the problem. There is a lot of good chemistry there. If you want to shake up the clubhouse, sign Tommy Pham who brings a hard edge to the game. Oh by the way, Kike and Taylor are basically the same guy. I do not see the need for two of them.

  16. Snell is a 5 inning pitcher. that means Doc comes and gets him after 4!!! lol just having fun!

  17. If Ohtani’s biggest want is a winning team seems he would want to sign soon as possible in order that his new team knows what there working with and can start filling other needs best they can before the better options are gone

  18. Cmon AF, don’t give us coal in our stocking this Christmas. Don’t be a rational Santa this year! Tell Walter to sell off some of his Apple stock!

  19. Dodger brass has been notoriously tight lip about free agent and trade targets during AF’s reign. Beyond speculation, I have no clue what they’re thinking.

    Friedman strikes me as a guy who doesn’t necessarily stick to a philosophy but one driven by opportunity.

    On one hand we make a case that he doesn’t sign players to long term deals, yet, he awarded Mookie a 12-year deal. He gave Freeman, who was already in his 30’s, a 6-year deal.

    While we will never know the math behind the deals, if Dodger brass sees value in a deal, I have no doubt they will pull the trigger regardless of length or AAV.

    1. He has to go for Ohtani. The team has choked chance after chance. We are owed.

      Ohtani, Imanaga, Giolito, RH OF.

      Game, set, match.

  20. If we turn our ears from idle fan speculation to what I hope is informed speculation:

    Morosi:
    Dylan Cease trade market is robust as the winter meetings begin in Nashville.

    Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles are all involved, sources say, and other teams also remain engaged with the White Sox.

    The Mariners and Rays are trade partners to watch in Nashville this week.

    They have spoken about Isaac Paredes, as I reported earlier today.

    Randy Arozarena is available, and it is believed his name has come up in different scenarios, as well.

    Heyman:
    Tons of trade interest in Tyler Glasnow. Not surprising.

    Brewers are moving closer to a deal with Wade Miley. Would be 1 year.

    Alek Manoah’s name has come up in Juan Soto trade talks with the Padres. Could be a good change of scenery guy.

      1. I LOVE THAT you asked that!

        Because it’s reason to invoke the never-right, but usually very close trade simulator!

        Cartaya, Busch, Stone and DeLuca

        FOR

        Arozarena, Glasgow and Braden Taylor!

          1. Mookie’s move to 2B could make a deal for Glasnow and Arozarena more likely.
            For starters, we now know that 2B isn’t an option for Busch or Vargas. Barring injuries, their best hope of breaking into the starting lineup is in LF.
            But Arozarena has proved himself as a major league leftfielder, while Busch and Vargas have yet to prove they can be average major leaguers at any position. I think both can be very good, but they may have to leave the Dodgers to get the opportunity. And Vivas seems more likely to be traded too.
            Arozarena’s game is good–not great–but his personality is charismatic. In terms of offense, is production in ’22 was remarkably similar to Outman’s. Batting righthanded, RA hit 23 HRs en route to an OPS of .789, an OBP of .364. Batting lefty, Outman had 23 HRs en route to an OPS of .790, with an OBP of .353. RA stole 22 bases, but was caught 10 times. Outman stole 16 bases–and was caught just 3 times.
            But Arozarena’s appeal transcends the numbers. He’s on the all-joy team, frequently flashing his electric smile and having positive interactions with teammates and fans. He has swagger but he isn’t surly. The Dodgers have been criticized as having a “corporate” personality–very professional– but not very fun. Arozarena would bring more energy and fun into the game. It’s just who he is. (The fact that he is a naturalized Mexican citizen who played for Team Mexico sort of fits with the Dodgers’ diverse appeal.)
            A lot will be made of the fact that Arozarena has a great playoff record. He seems to respond well to pressure and rise to the occasion.
            As far as SPs go, I prefer Burnes or Cease to Glasnow–but there’s no reason the Dodgers can’t swing two deals.
            I’m fine with Lux at SS. But as I watched Roberts give his vote of confidence in an interview I sensed some uncertainty–and that Lux could be in play.
            Will Arozarena and Adames join the Dodgers’ lineup, with Burnes and Glasnow in the rotation?
            There’s a lot of competition, but it seems plausible to me.

  21. Looking more and more like it will be more of the same offseason stories of the Dodgers being the front runners on every big star then getting edged out. Come on Freidman lets get some positive news going and start going all in and landing these big names so we can win a few championships and not get swept in the first round!

  22. Ohtani’s surgery was conducted by Dodgers head team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Could that provide a clue into his free-agency intentions, given ElAttrache has now conducted two major surgeries on Ohtani? Thankfully, ElAttrache had nothing but positive things to say post-surgery, and expects Ohtani to make a full recovery.

    1. They said that a lot on the broadcast tonight. Amsinger tried to play it down, but Morosi told him that money is not the only consideration for Ohtani signing. The guy wants to win, and the Dodgers give him the best chance of doing that long term, not a team like Toronto, the Cubs, or the Angels.

  23. It’s eported that Ohtani has received multiple offers north of $500 million.
    This really shouldn’t be surprising at all, considering the trend in salaries in other major team sports. Soccer, basketball, football–the superstars are all keep getting bigger and bigger megabucks.
    And it’s no coincidence that the Brewers have now signed top prospect Jackson Chourio, who hasn’t played a single MLB game, to a deal that will be worth at least $82 million and perhaps as much as $142 million.
    The Chourio deal could have implications for the Dodgers.
    The Brewers now have a surplus of outfielders, and perhaps they’ll want to move Yelich’s contract in a deal for Burnes, or maybe the Dodgers would prefer Sal Frelich or ???.
    The Dodgers and Brewers just match up so well…

  24. The most vulnerable to be traded to open spots on the 40 man roster if needed seems to me would be Rojas, Varland, Hudson, all minor trades. After that if needed Gonzalez. Vivas possibly. I would say Barnes, but some say Feduccia might not hit as good as Barnes.

    1. Unless they traded for a SS, Rojas is in no danger whatsoever of being traded. He is the best fielding SS on the team. I think the most vulnerable players are Hudson, Almonte, Vivas, Cartaya and Gonzalez. I would even put Ferguson on that list if they decide to keep Yarbrough because Vesia is pretty much a lock to stay on the roster.

  25. OK, in light of the Chourio deal, let’s revisit Mark’s idea for a blockbuster built around Burnes.
    The headliner from the Dodgers is Lux, a Wisconsin boy with star upside who can play 2B or SS, and might be the Brewers new leadoff hitter. He could be a “face of the franchise” guy for the small-market Brewers while he’d always be part of the supporting cast for the stsr-studded Dodgers.
    He is packaged with top prospect Busch, who would fill the Brewers vacancy at 1B. He is blocked in LA, but he could blossom into a star, much like Paul Konerko did for the White Sox.
    The Brewers will require an ML-tested SP to replace Burnes, which could be Sheehan or Pepiot.
    If needed, the Dodgers could sweeten the deal with a catcher like Yeiner Fernandez or a second-tier pitcher like Grove or a prospect like Kendall Williams. For good measure, maybe toss in an RP off the 40-man like Yency Almonte.
    The Brewers would get a lot of contract control and reduce their payroll. In return, the Dodgers get Burnes as their new ace, Adames as SS upgrade and Yelich to play left.
    And that’s not all! Because the Dodgers also wrangle premium RP Devin Williams in deal!
    Or maybe not.
    Both Burnes and Adames are in the final year of their contract, but that doesn’t bother me. If they play well, the Dodgers brass would try to extend them. If not, move on. Yelich is a solid veteran who would be ensconced in LF for the next several years. I’m not a huge Yelich fan, but with folks here are suggesting that a first baseman like Hoskins should play LF, Yelich looks better to me. Of course, keeping LF open for guys like Vargas or DeLuca makes sense too–but the Brewers may need to shed Yelich’s contract
    The lineup could be something like…
    Mookie 2B/RF
    Freddie 1B
    Shohei DH
    Smith C
    Yelich LF
    Max/ Vargas 3B
    Adames SS
    Outman CF
    Hayward/DeLuca or Taylor RF

    And that would be pretty awesome. The Dodgers would have substantial offensive upgrades at DH, SS and LF.

    *Against lefties, Mookie plays RF and either Vargas or Taylor or Miguel Rojas covers 2B. Max doesn’t need a full-time platoon partner, but it could make sense depending on the pitcher. Same with Outman.
    The argument against getting Yelich or another outsider to play LF is that the position provides best opportunity for Vargas, Busch and DeLuca to play.

    1. No on Adames and no on trading the kids for rentals. Adames is not that much of an upgrade. Maybe power wise but the guy is a strikeout machine. No on Yelich either, why would they want to pick up the 130 million left on his deal. I would not trade Pepiot or Sheehan. Now if they want to unload Vargas or Busch, send them somewhere they get a player with some time left on his deal. And from all I have seen and read today, Milwaukee is in a good place to compete for the NL central title. So why would they trade their Ace? Makes no sense with them closing in a on a deal with Wade Miley. My argument against Yelich is his age and his contract. Give Lux a chance, the kid might just surprise you. He is faster than Adames, makes better contact and with a full season he could easily hit15-20 homers.

    2. For Burnes alone… perhaps Sheehan and Busch? Perhaps the Brewers toss back a prospect.
      Dodgers could ride with Lux as SS.
      So many possibilities…

        1. While Yamamoto may be the most exciting SP out there, Burnes is probably the surer bet.
          From DodgerBlue:
          “Among starting pitchers with at least 500 innings since 2021, Burnes ranks first in ERA (2.94), strikeouts (677), WHIP (0.99) and batting average allowed (.198). He’s also allowed the fewest earned runs (184) and hits (408), and is fourth with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 75.8%.”
          I’d be fine with Burnes alone. The question is what the Brewers would want–and they might want to make a bigger swap.
          Imagine that it’s the Dodgers bidding against the Orioles, said to have the game’s deepest farm system. The Orioles could make a better prospect offer for Burnes–but would Baltimore consider taking on Adames of Yelich? Probably not.
          I guess the dominoes will really start falling once the Ohtani sweepstakes is settled.

  26. I was watching a video from 22 of Pepiot pitching, and looking at the kid, he reminded me of another pitcher who wore that number # 47 and had long hair like Pepiot does. ………Andy Messersmith.
    As the old saying goes, prepare for disappointment, that way you will be pleasantly surprised when something good happens. Dodger fans should take that to heart. USC to play Louisville in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. Will Smith will love that.

  27. First trade of the meetings, Braves get Kelenic, White and left-hander, Marco Gonzales for Jackson Kowar, and Cole Phillips. Cash is also heading to the Mariners. It is a salary dump with the Braves taking on Gonzales 12.25 mil and White’s 7. Dodgers contract with Joe Kelly is for 8 million.

    1. Thanks for the info Bear.
      Braves get a young OF with big upside.
      $8 million for Joe Kelly seems a little rich. He had 4.12 and 6.08 ERAs the last two years. Would have rather brought back Brasier or Miller.

      1. You could have brought back BOTH for about 2 or 3 Million more than Kelly got.

        8 million wasted money on a reliever that A LOT of times can’t find the strike zone.

        9 million on a platoon player named Heyward.

        The wasted money is stacking up. That’s 17 million wasted out of apparently 100 million to spend.

        1. Are you kidding me?

          Shelby Miller and Brasier will both get multi-year contracts at about double what Kelly does. or the Dodgers might also bring them back. What are you talking about?

          Kelly is also a guy who has performed well in the playoffs.

          Most importantly, he wants to be a Dodger!

          Wasted Money? Silly!

          Every player can’t be a superstar. You need role players who know and play their role.

          The Dodgers would love to have Brasier back, but he could be in line for a mutli-year deal. If he wants under $10 Million, he will be a Dodger. Ditto with Miller.

    1. Key phrase there is COULD BE. Freidman has given every indication that the SS job is Lux’s to lose. And he sure is not going to lose it in the winter by a trade for another SS. It is all guesswork at this point in time. I believe very little of what I read until it is reported as fact. Last night on the MLB tonight show, they were saying that the Giants have the inside track on landing Yamamoto. I will believe that when I see it.

    2. I’m fine with Adames so long as he brings Burnes with him.
      I think Lux would be OK at SS, and that his potential on offense exceeds Adames. But Adames has proved himself as a high quality defender with 20+ HR power.

      1. And 150 plus strikeouts!!!! No thank you, the Dodgers have enough swing and miss on this team already. Lux makes contact, is faster, and could develop more power. I do not like strikeouts, they are wasted at bats. That is why I do not want to see them sign Teoscar Hernandez. He struck out 211 times last year. Over the last two seasons, Adames has struck out 165 and 166 times. .211 BA???? no thank you.

  28. So far, the Winter Meetings are like Round One in a Prize Fight, where the boxers are sizing each other up before throwing their punches. Trades and signings could come in a flurry of haymakers!

  29. First day of the meetings is always the slowest. I have to get my truck serviced today. Oil change and tire rotation. Leaving on Thursday morning for the coast.

    1. Woo Suk Go posted too. Rob Thompson extended through 25, Miley signing official and the Brewers also signed Joe Ross. Lots of rumors, mostly just smokescreens right now. Atlanta not expected to keep Gonzales.

  30. From MLBTR:

    Last night’s Braves/Mariners trade saw Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White go from Seattle to Atlanta, but it seems Gonzales’ stay with the Braves will be brief. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Braves aren’t planning to keep Gonzales and expect to move him in another trade. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds that Gonzales himself expected as much to happen after being informed he’d been traded to Atlanta. It’s not yet clear if there’s an imminent trade involving Gonzales or if he’s being shopped around at present, but it’s a notable revelation with regard to the Braves’ rotation outlook all the same.

    Gonzales, 32 in February, is due to earn $12MM this season in the final season of a four-year, $30MM extension he signed back in 2020. The contract also contains a $15MM club option for the 2025 season, which does not come with a buyout.

  31. Up, up and away.

    The media keeps reporting the price for Ohtani’s services keeps climbing higher. Will it reach 600 mil? Maybe even go higher.

    That’s bat crap crazy, of course. No player in history is worth that. Even if he can generate $75 to 100 million a year in additional revenue streams for the signing organization, there would other factors in saying such a contract would be a bad deal.

    You’d never stay under the payroll tax, nor would you be able to keep a club competitive in the long run. It would take away flexibility to add other needs. Trout and Ohtani didn’t put the Angels into the playoffs.

    Yes, he’s an incredible talent, but with a boat anchor contract.

    A couple of reports the Dodgers are moving away, but others saying the Dodgers are all in … whatever that means.

    Even if the Dodgers don’t sign Ohtani, doesn’t mean they will switch the money elsewhere, like Yamamoto. Or even make a big trade. Cease is still up in the air and apparently the White Sox wanted a lot more than the Dodgers are offering in prospect capital.

    Oh, at some point they will make a trade or two, I’m sure. What that will look like, I have no idea.

  32. For those following at home, the trade simulator APPROVES the Braves/Mariners trade!

    Gonzalez, Kelenic, White and Cash comes to about 3
    Cole Phillips is 3.2 (other Mariner acquisitions are nil)

  33. Robert’s just announced Mookie is our 2nd baseman next year. Vargas and Busch better get a left fielders glove!

    1. They could also use a third baseman’s glove if we don’t get Ohtani and Max moves to DH.

      Really happy that Mookie will be at 2B every day.

        1. I suppose he’s willing to wait for Ohtani’s decision. Unless $$ get in the way, I would imagine he’d like to come back.

  34. If Mookies playing 2nd, then Busch or Vargas will be moved. We’ll see who Dodgers like better and might end up at third next year.

    1. With Mookie taking over 2B full-time, I would have no problem moving both Vargas and Busch if it nets a good upgrade in the rotation and lineup.
      Both have talent, but they’ll have a better chance living up to the hype on other teams. As I mentioned, perhaps Busch could blossom the way Konerko did after he left the Dodgers. Perhaps Vargas could too.
      Perhaps.
      The Dodgers absolutely counted on Vargas at the end of ’21 and the beginning of ’22. Injuries hampered him in ’22, but his ’21 performance was also weak for a rookie who was touted as a great natural hitter. Busch, unfortunately, hasn’t gotten as much of a chance on the ML level, but his performance has been less than whelming.
      Another reason to trade them is that the best position for both is said to be the one occupied by Freddie. Both can be placed at 3B, but it seems that neither have shown the Dodger brass that they could be as good a defender as Max–and Max ain’t great.
      How about a utility role? True UT players like Taylor and Kike are solid defenders at several positions, including SS. Vargas and Busch would be bat-first UT guys with limited defensive range.
      I understand the desire to “hug” prospects. I want to hug Rushing and Pages and nearly every top pitcher, as well as younger prospects like Kendall George, Jake Gelof, Jeondry Vargas and Josue DePaula.
      Cartaya just had a poor season, but I’d much rather keep him than either Vargas or Busch. He could still Will Smith’s back up and successor.
      The way the roster is shaped now, perhaps Vargas and Busch could platoon in LF. But I expect that one or both will be traded.

  35. I still go back to the trade I suggested a few weeks ago:

    1. Trade for Cease and Robert, Jr. – Trade Busch or Vargas, Outman, Pages, Sheehan, Williams, Austin Barnes, and Frasso
    2. Sign JDM
    3. Sign Imagana
    4. Sign Mitch Garver

    Lineup:
    1. Lux SS
    2. Betts 2B
    3. Freeman 1B
    4. Robert, Jr. CF
    5. JDM DH
    6. Smith C
    7. Muncy 3B
    8. Heyward/DeLuca RF
    9. Busch or Vargas LF (whichever one you don’t trade)

    That lineup would be devastating!

      1. So now you think Lux really can play SS? For a long time you wanted him moved to CF….
        If I ran the White Sox, I’d be hanging on to Robert Jr. unless absolutely overwhelmed. He’s the marquee guy on that team. To replace his power, I’d be insisting that Rushing be included–and the Dodgers might do it.

    1. White Sox wouldn’t do that trade.
      When you mention Robert Jr (controllable for 4 years at an avg cost of under 17 mil), they come back with Bobby Miller.
      When you say Vargas or Busch, they say Vargas AND Busch.
      When you say Barnes, they say send along $ to pay for him.

      You’re asking them for a guy who was on the All Star team last year and another one who came in second in Cy Young voting the year before.

      And you want to send back a bunch of guys, only one (Outman) who has proven anything at the MLB level, and that was a somewhat inconsistent year.

      If they made Robert Jr available, they’d have offers from half the teams in baseball, and somebody would do substantially better than what you have put together.

      Unlike JohnnyGentle who threatened to quit your site if we don’t get Ohtani, I don’t plan to go anywhere if I’m wrong.

      1. Singing The Blue

        You’re right and that’s why I’d like to see Yamamoto, Imanaga, JDM, and either Lee or Hoskins all for just money, nobody traded. Also get rid of some dead weight on the 40 man roster like Hudson, Varland, Vanasco, Gonzalez, Vivas, Barnes, and Rojas (Taylor can be the backup SS). Any 4 of them to make room for the 4 free agents signed.

        1. JDM sounds like an easy signing, he wants to come back. Go all in for Yamamoto and Imanaga. You can skip Lee and Hoskins if needed and have Busch learn LF.

          1. If there’s enough money for Ohtani, there’s enough for Yamamoto, Imanaga and Lee if we don’t get him. Those three together won’t be as much as Shohei gets.

            Unless we’d use Hoskins as the DH, I wouldn’t be anxious to sign him to play outfield. He wasn’t all that good and then he had a severe injury which will slow him down even more. Much prefer Lee.

        2. Giants front runners for Yamamoto with contract estimates now approaching 300 million. Dodgers will never spend that much money on a pitcher.

  36. i like it. my only concern is the corners., left and right. i would look for one more outfielder , i’m not sure the 4 you listed will hit 35 homers combined.

    1. With Mookie at 2B full-time, Dodgers will probably seek a platoon partner for Heyward in RF.
      Right now the candidates would be Taylor and DeLuca.
      Teoscar is a possibility. Hunter Renfro might be another. Maybe Andy Pages will have a breakthrough.
      Who else is out there?

      1. Guys coming back from shoulder surgery usually have a relatively poor season their first year back. I’m willing to bet that Pages is not going to have a very good year.

        Give him 2024 to get his shoulder back in working order and extend his ETA to 2025.

      2. Right now, I’d say it’s Heyward/Deluca in RF and Taylor/[Busch/Vargas] in LF.

        Unless we whiff on Shohei and Muncy moves to DH and 3b opens up for Vargas.

        1. If Dodgers whiff on Ohtani, AF could also pivot to Matt Chapman, who would be a huge upgrade on defense.
          He’s a SoCal native who might have extra reason to come back home. He slumped last year after a fast start, but he still hit better than Vargas.
          Candelario would be a cheaper alternative to Chapman if Max moves to DH. Much more proven than Vargas.

          1. Another whiff machine. But he definitely upgrades the infield defense, and I would much rather have him than Adames. But his agent is Boras.

      3. Hernandez strikes out too damn much, 211 times last season. Renfroe is a decent defender with a ton of power. He also K’s a lot. I think they should kick the tires on O’Neill.

    1. According to MLBTR the two teams in on Fedde are the White Sox and the Mets. Ohtani reportedly met with Jays officials on Monday. Cubs are in on Chapman; Hicks has several suitors as does Lugo. Yankees balked at Padres asking price for Soto: Seven players. Preller is off his rocker. Mariners kicking the tires on Bellinger. LH compliment to Rodriguez. Giants are considered the front runner to land Yamamoto who’s contract is now expected to exceed 300 million. Eduard Rodriguez showed up in Nashville.

  37. For what it’s worth, the Dodgers are reportedly one of two teams to put an offer for Ohtani of between $500 and $600 million. That from MLB radio.

  38. 500 million – 600 million? wow!! i guess it all comes down to ohtani and his personal preference. if he is a dodger, great. if he goes to Toronto, even better! just hope if isn’t a dodger, he’s in the American league! hope soto ends up a yankee. someone said earlier, smells of another lackluster winter meeting for LA! who the heck knows? always enjoy the offseason, the rumors, the trades, the hype, and all of us playing GM! but honestly, this 600 million stuff is a bit of a downer. ain’t no one player worth that. , even ohtani.

    1. Depends on how the contract is structured. Mookie is not getting all of his money during the life of his deal. He has a lot of money deferred, so does Freddie. Do you realize that just this year the Mets FINALLY paid off Bobby Bonilla’s contract? He retired in 2001.

  39. Ohtani at $50-60 million AAV looks pretty fair in the context of sports superstar salaries.
    Cristiano Reynaldo, at age 38, signed a two-year deal with the Saudis at $200 million per year. (We’ll add the * because it’s Saudi petro dollars.)
    But 36-year-old Lionel Messi, without Saudi help, is earning $135 million from Miami in the MLS. At least three other soccer stars have contracts with AAV north of $100 million –Neymar Jr, Mbappe and a guy I’ve never heard of, Karim Benzena. (Oh, just noticed he’s also taking Saudi blood money.)
    In the NFL, Joe Burrow is earning $55 million per year. Good QB! Some other QBs aren’t far behind. But should they earn more than a superstar like Ohtani?
    In the NBA, nine players are earning more than $40 million per season–and that’s with a salary cap.

  40. The global footprint of MLB pales in comparison to soccer and other sports. That is an apples and oranges comparison. When Ronaldo by himself would take up nearly half of the team’s budget, it tells you everything you need to know how other sports compare to baseball.

    I understand Ohtani represents a major piece of the global marketing machine for MLB, but I don’t think the sport is there yet, and I have doubts as to whether it will ever be.

    Soccer is king among international sports. Basketball has established a huge presence around the world thanks to ambassadors like Michael Jordan. Baseball is behind, way behind.

  41. Not having the baseball insights of many on LADT, I keep reading these tea leaves:

    (1) The owner of the Dodgers is Guggenheim Partners – one of the largest, private, international investment organizations in the world.

    (2) Ohtani represents MLB’s biggest international marketing opportunity in baseball history with significant new revenue opportunities.

    (3) As Mark recently pointed out, the Dodgers have the largest international marketing staff of any team in MLB.

    (4) The Dodgers unloaded salary this past year to position themselves to capitalize on these “Ohtani revenue opportunities.”

    (5) All professional sports are positioning themselves to be international players; baseball is ahead of the NFL and NBA and the Dodgers are poitioning themselves to be #1.

    (6) Personally, I think Guggenheim Partners are driving the decisions of the LA Ddogers from now on.

    (7) Of course, I could be all wrong about this.

    1. Guggenheim has to approve any contract AF offers any free agent. The actual trades and stuff are left up to AF and his staff. Guggenheim is advised if there are salary implications or impact. But they seem to be down with getting Ohtani. Personally, I do not see why he would want to go to Toronto. They have a two-year window to win right now with both Bichette and Guererro Jr. becoming free agents in two years. The Dodgers ability to field competitive teams every year is much more appealing than that.

  42. P.S. Paraphasing Mark, while the rest of baseball is “playing checkers, the Guggenheim Dodgers are play chess”….

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