Categorized | Mark Timmons

Go Big or Stay Home From the Winter Meetings

Fearless Predictions:

The Dodgers will sign Zach Greinke this week to a 6 year/$150 million done deal!

This team is built for the next 3-5 years as it sits.  Drafting and other smart moves will restore the farm system, but A-Gone, Crawford, Ramirez, Kemp and others are in their prime.  The Dodgers need players now and can afford the cost as they sign a new TV deal.  I have now changed my mind and think they will re-upt with FOX for $7-8 million.  Once that is done, they can spend like crazy.  It is a matter of timing and a bid in the hand… or was that bird in the hand?  Well a bird in the hand makes a terrible mess, but I digress.

The Dodgers need a 3B.  Hanley is staying at SS, just like I have been telling you.  They don’t want to start the season with Cruz at 3B and Ellis at 2B.  They must upgrade.

I think it is time for a blockbuster and I mean a REAL blockbuster:  Trade Zack Lee, Dee Gordon, Andre Ethier, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, Yasiel Puig, Mark Ellis, Luis Cruz, Chris Reed and $30 million dollars to the NY Mets for David Wright, RA Dickey, Daniel Murphy and Johan Santana.  The Mets need salary relief and this gives them a 2B, 3B, SS, RF and two starters back to go with a couple of Top Prospects.

The Dodgers then sign Shane Victorino.

Lineup:

  1. Victorino  RF
  2. Wright  3B
  3. Kemp  CF
  4. Gonzalez  1B
  5. Ramirez  SS
  6. Crawford  LF
  7. Murphy  2B
  8. Ellis C

Rotation:

  1. Kershaw
  2. Greinke
  3. Dickey
  4. Santana
  5. Billingsley
  6. Lilly
  7. Beckett
  8. Ryu (if he signs)

You can never have too many starters or you can trade one or two.  We all know about Billingsley and Lilly…

Other Dodger News:

  • The Dodgers have four, count ‘em 4, new vice-presidents:   Logan White, VP – Scouting, De Jon Watson, VP – Player Development, Vance Lovelace – VP – player personnel and Rick Ragazzo, VP -professional scouting.  That’s a lot of baseball experience!
  • Dodger fans should thank Frank McCourt for setting this all up.  The revenue sharing has been limited by the bankruptcy court and the Dodgers can spend BIG!  That’s another reason why Guggs and Company overpaid:  They understood they would more than make it up on the back-end.
  • Don’t get too excited over that Carl Crawford video – it’s at least a year old… probably older.  His face was not round.  I think it was shot when he was with Tampa, but the Baseball part was shot in Boston.  I still remain skeptical.

 

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

44 Responses to “Go Big or Stay Home From the Winter Meetings”

  1. ken says:

    Miss Upton has a fat face too but the rest of her is ok. Not sure that logic applies to Crawford :)

    Greinke will get his $25 mil per year but he is not worth a penny more than $22.5 mil per year!

    Nice trade and nice team but move Kemp to RF. That team would do well in double headers.

  2. AnewBlueDay says:

    As I said on the end of the last thread –

    If the Dodgers do this, they will be the (new) hated baseball organization in all of baseball.

    Cries of — the Dodgers are ruining the game. We will say, get new owners you other teams — but later it will sink in to some of us, that the new owners have gone off the financial cliff . . .

  3. Idahoal says:

    I would not trade Andre Either. If Mark McGwire can fix all the other hitters you are talking about Mark, he can fix Andre hitting left handers. Andre hustled his butt off this year. Every time he hit a grounder he was running as hard as he could to first. That tells me a lot about him and his attitude. I think he has made a change. I am not a fan of R. A. Dickey. I do not like the knuckle ball. I think Dickey has done well, but I am not a fan. I do agree that Ramirez has to play shortstop. I do not think he is that good at shortstop, but the Dodgers cannot move him to third anymore. If they would of played him at third when he came to the Dodgers, then I think he would been ok with playing third. I would keep Andre and let the Mets keep David Wright–even up. Victorino is over the hill. Let him go. I would take Murphy and Santana, and give up young talent.

  4. emerson-Lake says:

    Mark–no offense but that is one terrible deal for the Dodgers you just sketched out. Santana is shot–less formidable than either Capuano or Harang, and Murphy is half a player. Puig? Eithier? Lee? Gordon? Hell, why not throw A.J. Ellis into the deal too? The Mets need a catcher. Or how about a reliever–we’ve got too many–give ‘em Belly and pay them twenty million if they’ll take Tolleson off our hands. And I can’t believe Victorino is in this new outfield, along with another low-power guy like Crawford. Shane is a shot player too–okay as 4th outfielder but that’s it. Take the week off, Mark, and let the new Dodger team do their thing…the most import of which is signing Zach.

    • Mark_Timmons says:

      Yeah, I forgot that hurt pitchers NEVER come back and that every Dodger prospect is a guaranteed hall-of-famer.

      Yeah, you are right. The Dodgers should trade $100 dollars worth of players to get $5 million dollars worth of players.

      Ned can do that.

      Keep puffing on that pipe…

  5. joseph o. says:

    wow i wouldnt trade Puig, Andre, and cruz is goin to be a perfect platoon guy for us deal would be good if we dont get rid of these 3 guys

  6. Gionfriddo says:

    Greinke will be a Dodger.. However, tonight there are rumblings (Olney, Jim Bowden) that this deal might match or exceed CC Sabathia’s deal with NY (7 yrs @ 161 mill).. Bottom line, NONE of us will be cutting that check so let it be..

    Mets offered Wright (per Ken Rosenthal) 8 yrs @ 135 -140 mill?? Wright will be 30 in 25 days.. Do you all see what has happened to A Rod’s bat speed the last 3 years (he is 37 yrs old)?? that, along with his inability to stay healthy and you have an albatross contract. So, I say a big NO to Wright and a big NO to dealing Lee and Puig for him.. I’m a big Wright fan but not at that money and yrs of contract when he will be 38 at the tail end..

  7. Bball says:

    I think Ned would get fired if he made that deal. So I guess some of you would like it

  8. tony says:

    Mark is an idiot with that trade request! He must not know baseball to well. Getting rid of our future players for old past there prime players wow dumb!

  9. Bobby says:

    I wonder, if Puig is traded, does the team trading for him pick up his remaining salaey? I don’t know how it works for minor leaguers. How much have we already paid him so far? Would a team want to pay a guy in A ball 6 mil a year for the next several years to be in the minors ?

    I doubt Puig is in any deal unless we pay all of his remaining signing bonus

  10. Badger says:

    I don’t care much for that trade either, but I do like the idea of getting a real third baseman. If the Dodgers express interest in Wright, he may just hang on there for another year and become the FA in 2014. He will be 31 then, which is, as they say, on the wrong side of 30, but he should have a few good years left in him. I hope they find the 25 year old David Wright somewhere. We sure have enough scouts and VP’s in place to hopefully get that, and other improvements, completed. And we knew it would take more than a few months to do all of this. Patience people. We will better next year, and even better in the years following. The foundation is being built, the house comes later.

    A real salary cap Roger. If there was ever a need for one, it is going to become even more evident now. It won’t stop the Yankees and Dodgers from spending, but it will send more money to the other clubs for improvements of their organizations. We will see more talk of it soon.

  11. Pete M. says:

    After the “were set for 3-5 years”, it turned into a Stephen King novel!!!
    Whoever said it, that Zack G. isn’t worth the $$ being thrown around is right but it will probably happen.. And we will be better off for it.
    Lets covet our kids for awhile and see where were at in the next couple years.I’ve waited a long time for Lee and the likes of Seager. The suspense is killing me.
    Have you seen the ripple effect of the Brandon League contract??? Madson,Jonathon Broxton and the rset waiting should send gift baskets…

  12. jhallwally says:

    You had me trading Ethier. You lost me signing Victorino. He’s an overrated bum…

  13. Badger says:

    I like Pete’s idea of keeping our kids and seeing what might happen with them. It would appear we actually have some sticks in the minors now, and that is something new. Of course, if we could move them for a 25 year old stud, I am down with that too. We really need to focus on acquiring players on their way up.

    It sure seems like Zach Lee has been with us for a while, but of course it’s only been a couple of years. He pitched AA last year, so, who knows, we may actually get to see some of him this year. Onelki Garcia is now 23, what will he do this year? Saeger shows signs of moving quickly throw the organization, and hopefully Pederson and Puig tear up AA this year. If all goes well, we could have 4 young guys ready to show up by the middle of next year. And I am thinking at that time we make the move for the bat. By July 31, there will be a lot of names flying around from teams that are failing. If all goes well, we could be in a superior position for a big move then.

  14. ken says:

    According to COTS, Mr. Headley is still not signed to a long term deal and his 4th aritration year is 2014. Although he loves SD his agent is probably telling him to think about LAD. No player on the Padres roster is signed to $10 mil in any year on a going forward basis. I can wait for him.

    Is Eric Chavez still a free agent? Consider signing him to platoon for a year plus an option.

    Time to blink and just sign Jackie G.

    Forget FOX, just create a network. Dodgers have the executive talent and $$ to set up another cash cow.

  15. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    First of all, I’m not convinced that Hanley won’t be out third baseman. Second of all, why would the Dodgers give the Mets $30 million for the privilege of picking up the $30.5 million that will be due Johan Santana ($25 million in 2013, and a $5.5 million buyout in 2014–unless you think the Dodgers would pick up his $25 million team option for 2014), and on top of that give the Mets $30 million and pick up the contracts of Wright and Dickey?

    And if the Dodgers have money to throw around, why not just sign Josh Hamilton and trade Ethier in a package that will bring back some pitching, or whatever.

    And finally, what’s wrong with keeping our young talent, adding to it, and using it as currency to add established talent later, or as players who can themselves find their way onto the 25-man roster.

    • Kevin says:

      I agree about Hanley. I still he think there is a good chance he ends up at 3rd….that’s where he is playing in the Dominican Winter League.

  16. Bobbie17 says:

    I agree with Brooklyn and Pete M. How about open competition at 3d with Cruz and the 3A 3d baseman, whose name escapes me at the moment. Same at 2d with Ellis. We still have some young players who hit at 3A. I’m for open competition at all positions. It makes everyone better. I still wish, though, we had a different manager. I’m not sure he is an”open competition” kind of guy. Mike Scioscia is. Oh well!

  17. Gonzo says:

    Go big or go home? With that trade I go home. The only trade I would include Puig in would be for Giancarlo Stanton. Three team trade Ethier for a prospect or two, those prospects, Puig, Lee, Pederson for Stanton.

    • Gionfriddo says:

      Well said, Gonzo… Agreed— Puig has too much upside to go in any deal UNLESS he brings back a top arm (Shields, Price, King Felix) or a big bat like Stanton..

      • Badger says:

        I agree. That was one of the possibilities I see at the deadline. To get him, I would give up those guys most ready, trade Ethier for other guys about that ready and keep at it until we are thick with talent all through the 40 man.

        And I think that is exactly how it will go. The names may be different, but the idea will be the same.

  18. AnewBlueDay says:

    If you have seen the news, you heard that Marvin Miller died. Here is an article Fay Vincent wrote in the NY Times today, former Commission of Baseball, on Miller.

    (Note: Mark and i visited several times with Fay Vincent in Vero Beach during Spring Training, back in 2006-2007 — he used to be in a golf cart, up on the high walk behind home plate toward first base. He had a driver/guard with him. But he was always gracious to Mark and I, and give us 20 or 30 minutes to talk with him about baseball. We had some great conversations. Fay lives in Vero Beach.)

    Article:

    AN APPRAISAL
    Miller Earned Respect as He Stood for Players’ Rights
    By FAY VINCENT
    Published: November 27, 2012 NYTimes

    Marvin Miller called me about six weeks ago to say goodbye. He told me he had terminal liver cancer and wanted his close friends to know. He did not want us to view the news as tragic. He was 95, he said, and the last two years had been difficult. That call was as remarkable as Marvin was.

    He was, in my opinion and that of most baseball savants, the most important figure in baseball in the last 40 years, yet many fans may not recognize his name. His death on Tuesday should give rise to some serious feelings of regret by those who failed to elect this good man, the former head of the players union, to membership in the Baseball Hall of Fame. More than anyone else, he transformed baseball.

    Yet the failure of the Hall of Fame to recognize the enormous contribution Marvin Miller made to our great game cannot detract from the facts. The shame of his rejection should greatly embarrass those who voted to exclude him.

    When he came on the scene at the players union in 1966, he found a group of ballplayers with no sense of how to achieve the kind of collective benefits that unions in this country had been seeking and realizing for their members for years. Miller had been a high official at the United Steelworkers union, and he brought to his baseball constituency the intense convictions of a dedicated trade unionist. He was soft-spoken and almost gentle, but his analytical skills were sharp. Before his arrival, the players were without experienced professional direction. Some players wanted the benefits of collective action but demanded Miller promise he would never call for a strike. Indeed, Phillies pitcher Robin Roberts claimed Miller had assured him and his colleagues of this. Miller, many times and firmly, denied any such promise.

    As he took charge of the union, Miller was shocked to find how poorly the players were being treated by the owners. In an oral history interview he did that is — some irony here — at the Hall of Fame, he explained how he had to persuade players to stand with him in asking for substantially improved terms in their collective bargaining agreements. Along the way there were bitter strikes in 1972 and 1981 before the union was able to achieve the set of remarkable benefits that currently accrue to all major league baseball players. Today, the player pension and health benefits are so good and so well financed, the union is in many ways limited by law from seeking greater funding.

    Miller and his successors, Donald Fehr and Michael Weiner, created a union that stands as a model. Their union is brilliantly led, honestly managed and extremely successful. The average member today earns more than $3 million per year. In many ways, this union is in control of baseball. And baseball is booming. It is not possible to ignore Miller’s achievements.

    Awash in cash, however, some players today may forget how much Miller did for them. While much was achieved through collective bargaining, his singular and most brilliant move was in the legal arena. With his attack on the so-called reserve clause, which bound players permanently to the team with which they originally signed a contract, Miller secured for his players the right to become free agents. It is the free agency victory that has transformed baseball and made the players so wealthy. Miller realized the players had to be free to sell their services to the high bidder and — after being rebuffed by the Supreme Court in the Flood v. Kuhn case — he persuaded an arbitrator to rule the reserve clause was limited in duration. Thus, a player who did not renew his contract would be free to sign with another team after one year. It is that ruling that set the players free to seek and receive enormous free agency contracts.

    Miller, who was not a lawyer, was a superb tactician in legal matters. In his oral history interview, he also confirmed that the strategy of framing his battles with owners in moral terms was his idea. He portrayed the players as poor working-class good guys seeking only to be treated fairly while castigating the wealthy owners as evil and selfish moguls. It worked, and the public sided with the players.
    Though we disagreed on some issues, especially when I argued collective bargaining had run its course and should be replaced with a greater union recognition of responsibility for the future economic development of the game, I respected and admired Miller for his dedication and brilliance.

    I regret deeply he did not live to accept the honor of election to the Hall of Fame. I can only hope that error is soon corrected. Until it is, the Hall is diminished.

    Fay Vincent was the commissioner of Major League Baseball from 1989 to 1992.

    • Badger says:

      Great story about a man who created union where the average member makes more in one year than most people my age make in a lifetime. I don’t even know where to begin with that.

  19. AnewBlueDay says:

    I still say that the Dodgers will take care of pitching before the Winter meetings start. They will not want to be in the hallway — running down agents and pitchers to make another offer.

  20. ken says:

    Miller – Great for the player’s and agent’s pocket books and terrible for the fan’s and tv subscriber’s pocket books.

    Per TBLA – “Julio Urias – LHP (16 years old) – Not a lot is known about one of the Dodgers most significant international signees in recent memory (including his actual birth date and actual bonus amount), but Baseball America did have a scouting report on the Mexico native so I’ll summarize that here. He’s not all that tall at 6 feet, but is already reaching into the low 90′s with his fastball and has good command of the pitch. His changeup is his best pitch, however, and some scouts think it will be plus-plus in the future.”

    Instant progress with the Intl signings?

    • Badger says:

      Agree with you about Miller. I am, in theory anyway, an organized labor guy, but not being anywhere near a union that consists entirely of millionaires, I just cannot relate to Marvin Miller and what he meant to baseball. What has meant more than anything to baseball’s success is not a lawyer, but an ever-expanding media cash flow. I lived in Orange County as a young professional and we could get into both Dodger Stadium and Angel Stadium for a few dollars. We would sit up with the seagulls, drink cheap beer, sneak down to the box seats around the 7th inning and everyone was happy. Those days are over. Have been for quite some time. Now, only because I can get a break on Dbacks tickets, I can sit in 2 box seats for around $80. For that kind of money, I only go to one Dodger game a year. For that kind of money, I would rather purchase DTV. I wonder if, with the amount of money the new tv deal will bring, if the owners will open up the upper levels and pavilion seats to the unwashed.

      Don’t know anything about that kid ken, but, I think we may see more of those kind of signings in the future. Hope so anyway.

  21. ken says:

    If Hanley plays 3B in 2013 it won’t be because Gumby is at SS

    http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l131&t=p_pbp&pid=543829

    • Badger says:

      Streaky isn’t he.

      He started off like crap, tore it up for a while, and now? … crap again.

      Overall numbers aren’t that bad. But, what is the level of Liga de Beisbol Dominicano? Maybe AA?

  22. ken says:

    Bill James appears to be high on the 2013 DODGERS!

  23. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Gordon has a history of being streaky. Might get 8 hits in his next two games. Might get none. Also, we don’t know what he’s working on, whether the thumb is 100% yet, etc., etc., etc. I wouldn’t jump to conclusions.

    Regarding Urias. I saw that also. And one of things we should be cognizant of, is that whatever moves the Dodgers make may well include their evaluation of prospects whose names we don’t know yet. So maybe they trade Gordon, not because they don’t think he might be a valuable piece, but because they have a young 16-20 year old shortstop prospect who they’re very high on. Same goes for other positions. The perspective Dodger management has may well be (probably is) very different than the one we have.

  24. ken says:

    Badger – If you are teh AZ guy that won the Moneyball will you pay for the edit button?

    Upton – Too much money (All players are thanking Ned/Guggenheim for the overpriced contracts to be awarded this off season)

    MLB Player indicted for Insider Trading as a result of just another person in DC pretending to be anti-Wall Street.

  25. DRomo says:

    Anyone wondering who will be leading off for us next year? Ellis? Crawford doesn’t really lead off, althouigh I suppose he could? He didn’t in Tampa.

    Kinda makes me wonder if something has to give here…..

    • Badger says:

      I’m wondering Romey. I still want Gordon to win the job. He is 120 runs waiting to happen.

      Wasn’t me ken, but if we all chipped in……

      Brooklyn’s point about players in the pipeline is a good one. I expect a plethora of international signings as well as draft picks to produce more ML worthy talent than we have seen in a long time. Maybe more than we have ever seen. It’s a new day in Fodger baseball.

      • Gonzo says:

        With this lineup how it’s projected I bat Hanley leadoff

        1 Ramirez

        2 Crawford

        3. Kemp

        4. Gonzo

        5.Ethier/3B

        6. Ethier/3B

        7. 2B

        8. Ellis, AJ

  26. Pete M. says:

    OK, I’m a Dee Gordon fan who wishes so much he could figure out how to work a count and have some sense of discipline at the dish. Like Badger said he’s 120 R waiting to happen… All that said I wake up tommorow and he’s traded, hopefully to the AL.

  27. Pete M. says:

    P.S. I green light the Hanley Experiment at lead off…

  28. Gonzo says:

    Remember that Hanley’s best years were when he batted lead off. How awesome would it be if the lower part of the lineup were to get on base consistently and set up RBI situations for him? You’d have to pitch to him.

    Also, jurrjens is going to be non tendered. Call him Ned. He’s Clayton’s age and filthy when right.

  29. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    It’s a small sample, but Dee Gordon has 11 walks in 105 ABs this winter. So along with his .276 BA, he has a .358 OBP. Like I said, it’s a small sample, so maybe it’s meaningful, and maybe it’s not.

  30. Michael says:

    Holy Manny Sanguillen! I cannot believe that Russell Martin has signed with the Bucs

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  1. [...] Go Big or Stay Home From the Winter Meetings Fearless Predictions: The Dodgers will sign Zach Greinke this week to a 6 year/$150 million done deal! This team is built for the next 3-5 years as it sits.  Drafting and other smart moves will restore the farm system, but A-Gone, Crawford, Ramirez, Kemp and others are in their prime.  The Dodgers need players now [...]… [...]

  2. [...] union through the dawn of free agency, died Tuesday after a long bout more… Go Big or Stay Home From the Winter Meetings – ladodgertalk.com 11/28/2012 Fearless Predictions: The Dodgers will sign Zach Greinke this [...]


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