Categorized | Mark Timmons

Will the Real Carl Crawford Step up?

Everyone is talking about how the Dodgers need more pitchers, better starters, get rid of Capuano and Lilly and Harang and get Price, Sheilds, Dempster and/or Greinke. 

In case, I was watching a different game than you, the Dodger’s pitching was pretty good last season.  The Dodgers were 3rd in all of Major League Baseball in team ERA at 3.34, just .01 point behind Washington.  The Dodgers allowed the fewest home runs and second fewest runs.  They did have 19 blown saves, so if they need any help it is in the pen, but if they re-sign League and Jansen returns healthy, they should be looking good.  If the Dodgers could have cut those blown saves in half, they would have won the division.

Let me repeat that:  If the Dodgers had cut their blown saves in half (from 19 to 9), they would have won the NL West!  The Dodger starting pitching ERA was 3.41 which was third in all of Major League Baseball.  Tampa Bay was best at 3.34 and Washington was second at 3.40.  You aren’t facing reality if you put the Dodgers collapse in 2012 on the pitching.  The pitching was great.  The starting pitching was stellar!  Give that argument up.

The Dodgers 2012 problems were caused by their inability to score runs.  Plain and simple.  They frequently choked in the clutch.  The Dodgers scored the 5th fewest runs in the major league last season with 637 (3.9 runs per game).  Texas scored 5 runs a game.  The Giants scored 4.4 runs a game.  Only the Mariners, Cubs, Marlins and Astros scored fewer runs than the Dodgers.  It wasn’t the pitching – it was the hitting.

Some fans say that 2012 wasn’t a failure because the Dodgers brought in a bunch of new players and really didn’t expect to win in 2012.  That’s pure BS, of course.  They expected to win.  Most others thought the same thing.  Stan McNeal of The Sporting News said this:

Adding shortstop Hanley Ramirez, left fielder Shane Victorino and bullpen depth made the Los Angeles Dodgers my biggest winners at the nonwaiver trading deadline. Now they have traded for an even better player, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, to bolster their weakest position.

Combine these upgrades with the talent already on hand, and the Dodgers must be considered favorites to win the National League.

Most other publications said the same thing, but it never materialized.  Instead, the Dodgers offense went into the tank.  If Matt Kemp couldn’t do it, nobody could.

Here are four players who could be key to the Dodgers hopes in 2013:

Adrian Gonzalez – One of the best 1B in baseball and THE best defensive 1B in baseball.  His average 162 game season is .294 BA; .371 OB%; 29 HR, 38 Doubles, 103 RBI ad and OPS of .877.  I think maybe he will not hit 29 HR again, but the rest of his numbers are impressive and likely to be repeated for a few more years.

Hanley Ramirez – The Dodger want a Good Hanley so I do not think they will chance a move to 3B.  A Happy Hanley can lead the league in hitting, but a Bad Hanley can kill a team.  Hanley’s average for a 162 game season is .298; .371 OB%25 HR; 84 RBI; 39 Doubles and a .866 OPS.  I have no clue which one will show up. After hitting .292, .332, .301, .342, .300  from 2006 to 2010, he hit .246 in 2011 and .257 last year.  I want the Hanley of 2006 to 2010, not the one we have seen the last two years.  How do the Dodgers make that happen?

Luis Cruz – Tell me he doesn’t deserve a chance and his defense is great at 3B.  We don’t know if he will hold up and if he can continue to hit, but he has to be given the opportunity.

Which bring me to…

Carl Crawford – Injured most of 2012 and with a chronic bad left wrist, he was out of shape when he came back, but still hit pretty well in the short time he was back.  My son-in-law, who is a huge Red Sox fan watched every game Crawford started last season and he said that he was heavier and out of shape, but that he looked good in a few games.  Now recovering from Tommy John Surgery, he is a huge risk and you need to remember that he has had surgery on both of his wrists as well.  He will be 31 this year.  His game is speed and he has bulked up.  Does that sound like a good thing?  His stolen base totals have declined since 2009 and in 2011 he hit .255 with a .289 OB% and had just 18 Stolen Bases.  He only had 117 AB’s in 2012 and hit .282 with a .306 OB%. 

Cork Gaines of Business Insider Sports Page  wrote a Headline that said this:

Carl Crawford Is The $142 Million Bust And Why There Is Little Hope That Will Change

Here’s what Jeffery Vermillion of Fantasy Gameday says about Crawford:
The first problem is Carl Crawford is not that good of a hitter.   He’s simply another Tampa Bay Ray who benefited by being in a run producing position and busted in his next destination.  Randy Winn, Julio Lugo, Carlos Pena, Jorge Cantu and others also left Tampa and saw their careers plummet.  Leaving the Tampa Bays and falling flat is something I’ll leave for another article.  One of the main issues with Crawford’s hitting skill is his inability to take a walk.  Crawford swings at a high percentage of pitches and because pitchers put more focus on the Red Sox, the weakness finally caught up to Crawford.  Last season his strikeout percentage was a career high, 19.3% per plate appearance.  The only blazing attribute he brings to the table is his ability to steal a ton of bases….
People are now coming to a realization that Carl Crawford’s stat ceiling is limited.  He’ll never come close to a first round pick ever again.  He’s also going to be 31 next year and just came off an 18 stolen base season and was DL’ed because of a strained hamstring.  When he signed the contract, many feared the day when his body couldn’t steal as many bases.   It’s possible Crawford’s days of forty plus stolen bases are gone.  He’s also stuck in Boston for the next six years where his at bats are under a microscope.  Crawford also missed games because of a strained hamstring and elbow.  Is his body physically wearing down already?
Another blogger said this:

 

Easily the most overrated player in the game.
Just astonishing that he has been reduced to crap. And the Red Sux are stuck with him for 6 more years and $142 mil. He looks like a little leaguer out there. Anybody who saw Crawford play with the Rays in 2010 should have seen the meltdown coming. Crawford even in his best years underachieved. Brian Cashman had no interest in him and he turned out to be spot on. This month of Sept. has totally turned things around as far as who the better GM is. Cashman is the genius and Theo Epstein the idiot.
I present this about Crawford, because the Dodgers are getting a 31 year-old left-fielder whose greatest asset is speed, who has had hamstring issues, two wrist surgeries, a TJ surgery and who best years are likely behind him.  I doubt that Carl Crawford can steal 30 bases is he plays an entire season, which in itself is highly unlikely.  He was one of the biggest free agent busts ever and I am afraid he will continue that in LA.  I wish he could achieve his 2004 to 2010 levels of success, and if he does, the Dodgers should really do well in 2013, but that ship has sailed in my opinion.  I think the Dodgers got an aging, injury-prone LF who will put up average numbers at best.  I hope I am dead wrong, but the facts say otherwise.’
By the way, I cannot see any scenario wherein Shane Victorino returns to the Dodgers in 2013.

 

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

41 Responses to “Will the Real Carl Crawford Step up?”

  1. chuy says:

    I really hope everyone is wrong about Crawford, but I really believe that he will benefit from working with Lopes and Wills. Those two coaches can and will get him back into shape. As far as the pitching I agree with you that our pitching was not the problem so those that are saying we need to get rid of some of our pitchers are so blind as to what went wrong for our Dodgers. The hitters need to come back next year and ready to battle. I would like to see most of the hitters report to spring training when our pitcher and catchers do, as a way of showing us fans that they are ready to battle in 2013.
    I enjoyed your article and look forward to reading more.

  2. Ken says:

    The only REAL problem with the starting pitching is that team ERA does not mean playoff wins. The dodgers need a REAL #2 not 3-4 #3s and 4s for the playoffs. They only need one more starting pitcher. Lilly’s great 2012 start lowered team ERA. How will he do after surgery? Cappy’s great 2012 start lowered teamm ERA. He only pitches half of the year – what a job can I have one? :) PS Shields had a very good second half of 2012. What a tag team the two of them could be!

    Sign League, Sign League, Sign Leaque.
    Forget Wright, get a real long reliever – Fife, Lilly, Cappy or Harang if the dodgers sign a real #2.
    Forget Choate, just bring up Paco.
    Spend money on a back up catcher. Maybe Napoli is fed up playing for chokers and will want to play for the dodgers next year :)

    Maybe Gordon should play both 2B and LF (but not catcher) in winter ball. Imagine Gordon working out with Crawford for 2 winters, putting on 20 lbs, and being the next dodger CF. He hits enough flyballs and popups to be the next 3DOG, just sayin!

  3. Bobbie17 says:

    We need an open Spring Training with left field an open spot for anyone, including Crawford. Let these guys win it on the field. Same with the pitching. Keep what you have that is healthy. Everything is open. Let Ely give it another try. Let some of the other young arms try to get a roster spot. I think some of the middle bullpen needs to get younger–and better. Don’t count on Jansen. I think there is a closer in the minors who might be good. The closer position should be open for competition like most other positions.

  4. Badger says:

    You have a son-in-law that says something.

    Well there you go. A son-in-law and a couple of pictures. That’s good enough. For some. Not for me.

    “I present this about Crawford, because the Dodgers are getting a 31 year-old left-fielder whose greatest asset is speed, who has had hamstring issues, two wrist surgeries, a TJ surgery and who best years are likely behind him.”

    You could say the same thing about a lot of players. You could say that about Mickey Mantle. Heck, the list of players who had surgeries is a mile long. You could say that now about Matt Kemp. But he will only be 29 next year, not 31, so….. I guess that makes the difference?

    I think most of us in the real world kinda figured Carl Crawford won’t likely repeat his Tampa numbers. Have you read them? I have. They were the reason he got $140 million. There are A LOT of players who made bank off a couple good years. Adrian Beltre is the first to come to mind. Crawford had a 6.6 WAR all the way back in 2010….. 2 years ago. Then he got hurt. It’s obvious to me some are suspicious and figure he will never be the same. But I submit to you that the Dodgers (and me) ALREADY KNOW THAT!!! We don’t need a 6 WAR out of him! I’ll take a 3 WAR and be content to overpay him for that! I think the Dodgers will too!

    I wish we could convince Victorino to stick around so guys like Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford can take the much needed days off that they won’t likely get with a back-up like Tony Gwynn Jr or Jerry Hairston on the bench. An outfield of Crawford, Kemp, Ethier and Victorino would guarantee a 3 WAR out of every spot out there. That outfield could carry the Dodgers to post season. Probably what will happen is Victorino won’t accept a role of playing behind those guys. He likely will want to be a big fish in a smaller pond.

    I don’t believe Crawford will need the 60 games that someone suggested he will. I think if he can give the Dodgers 130 games and 600 plate appearances, he can add tremendous value to the starting lineup.

    I don’t think we are going to agree on what Carl Crawford adds to the Dodgers because none of us know what the future will bring. I have hope. But, that’s me.

  5. Gonzo says:

    So just for the recor Mark, you’ve just stated that Crawford is more likely done.

    While I respect the fact that you value your son in law’s opinion, I disagree. Crawford probably won’t be able to be the same player he was when he was younger, but I believe that he will be in the .270-.290 avg with 10-17 HR, 55-70 rbi and 15-25 SB. That isn’t uber sexy but just sexy enough. His speed will still cause havoc even though he may not steal many bases. So if we can get James Loney numbers (good years) from Crawford, he’ll be fine an so will the team.

    • Badger says:

      Well said Gonzo.

      From what I have read on the surgery, which isn’t detailed by the surgeons involved, the TJ surgery is common and should go well. He’s an outfielder, not a pitcher. His hamstring? A lot of players in a lot of sports pull hamstrings. Time and therapy and he should recover from that. Every account I read said his wrist surgery was successful.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Crawford

      Here you will see a couple of pictures of Carl, with both the Rays when he was younger, and last year with Boston. Yeah, he does look thicker in his Red Sox uni, but it looks like everything I have posted about his work-outs is true – it’s all muscle under that shirt. Granted, I have not seen the man in the shower, like maybe some of you empiricals have, but he looks in shape to me. And I am also a son-in-law, so, you gotta believe me too – right?

    • Mark_Timmons says:

      Gonzo,

      I did not say that he is more likely done. Here is exactly what I said:

      \”I wish he could achieve his 2004 to 2010 levels of success, and if he does, the Dodgers should really do well in 2013, but that ship has sailed in my opinion. I think the Dodgers got an aging, injury-prone LF who will put up average numbers at best. I hope I am dead wrong, but the facts say otherwise.\”

      What you are saying is that he will put up Loney-Like numbers, which are average numbers, at best.

      It seems to me that you are saying the same thing I am.

  6. Jas says:

    I didn’t say he was fat, just out-of-shape.

  7. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    That 3.34 ERA is impressive, but it doesn’t take the following into account (some of which was mentioned above).

    1. Lilly has a 3.14 ERA in the time he played. Given the history of shoulder surgeries (especially on someone Lilly’s age), I wouldn’t count on him at all in 2013.

    2. Billingsley had a 3.55 ERA, and it’s very likely that he’ll miss all of 2013, or return without surgery and blow out his arm early in the season.

    3. Blanton likely won’t be back. His ERA was 4.99, but he’s at least serviceable, maybe even better, or worse.

    Just factoring in those three guys we have a rotation of:

    Kershaw

    Capuano

    Harang

    Beckett

    Like Ken said, and I’ve pointed on several occasions regarding Capuano, “He only pitches half of the year.” Capuano’s history indicates that he simply cannot be counted on for the full season (at least not starting), and as a consequence would likely not be very effective in the postseason, were the Dodgers to get there.

    Harang isn’t horrible, but for me, he occupies the back end of a championship caliber rotation, if even that. Maybe he would be good as a long man in the pen. Maybe not.

    Fact is, as things stand now, the Dodgers need additional starting pitching, if only because they likely won’t sign Blanton, and there is at least a spot open in the rotation. And there is no reason not to seek higher caliber pitching in more than one spot. And if we’ve learned anything, it’s that you can never have too much pitching.

    And I agree that the offense was the primary culprit this past year. But I also believe that we will get better years from A-Gon, and Hanley Ramirez, and I’m hopeful that Kemp will fully recover and give us another MVP type season. Maybe he won’t even suffer the power outage that A-Gon suffered early in 2011 after returning from the same surgery. I don’t know if it made a difference, but A-Gon was playing in the colder east that year, and that likely didn’t help a recovering shoulder.

    Luis Cruz? Maybe he’s turned a corner in his career, and maybe not. We’ve all seen this before. Sometimes it’s the beginning of a new chapter in a players career, sometimes it’s just 15 minutes of fame. I think Cruz has a chance to be good, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it turned out otherwise.

    If Hanley ends up at short, that’s fine with me. But I don’t think it has anything to do with good Hanley or bad Hanley. I think he likes it in LA, likes his teammates, and likes being part of a team that has a real chance to be a huge factor in next years postseason.

    And I can see Gordon sliding over to 2B, maybe even in a platoon with Mark Ellis. But I can also see Hanley at 3B, Gordon at short, and Cruz taking away 2B from Mark Ellis, or Mark Ellis at 2B, and Cruz becoming a super-sub.

    As for Crawford, there are definitely questions to be answered, and I doubt if any of us has a crystal ball that’s very clear on the issue. We’ll just have to wait, and see, and hope.

    And who knows, maybe someone like Alex Castellanos will step up next year and force his way into the lineup. In Castellanos’ case, it could be in the outfield or at 2B. Maybe he’ll even learn to play 3B.

    And, or course, this whole exercise may be a waste of time, since the Dodgers may make some unexpected deal or deals that includes some of the aforementioned players, and brings in players we haven’t even thought of. That’s why I just prefer to sit back and see what happens. You never know what we might see after the dust settles.

    B17, I hope John Ely has a long and productive MLB career. I just wouldn’t count on it, and certainly, he’s not a name that I would be counting on next year. But he’ll only be 27 next year, so you never know. Maybe he’ll become the next R.A. Dickey, and come up with an effective knuckleball. And although I’m sure there may be a potential closer in the Dodgers minor league system, please identify who you’re thinking about. Personally, I pretty much like Jansen (if healthy) and League at the back end of our bullpen. And Belisario was pretty good in 2012. I even saw some good stuff out of Shawn Tolleson.

    And by the way, for all of those who are critical of the Dodgers coaching. It seems to me that Howell/Honeycutt did a pretty nice job in getting League turned around.

    Finally, chances are that Victorino will not return to the Dodgers. Maybe, like Badger said, “He likely will want to be a big fish in a smaller pond.” But maybe his market is not all that great, and perhaps the Dodgers are willing to overpay for a 4th outfielder, who will get significant playing time, but not starter time. I’m not counting on him, but I also don’t count him out.

  8. Mark_Timmons says:

    Brooklyn,

    I cannot compromise my source, but believe me, it is ALL ABOUT \”Good Hanley and Bad Hanley.\” The Dodgers are all but convinced that he will be a malcontent if he doesn\’t end up at SS.

    I have several people in baseball and the Dodgers cell phones on my i-phone. I have never compromised my sources and so they feel free to say things. You can choose to believe it… or not.

    \”Ned Sucks\” (Justin Gunsalus) was seeking to break into the biz of baseball and asked for my help. I\’m not going to name names, but ask him if I hooked him up with someone pretty high up. I\’m not saying that to get credit. I\’m saying that because I do have some pretty good contacts.

    BTW, does anyone know what has happened to Tony Jackson? I do, but you have to e-mail me to find out. I told him I wouldn\’t put it on the site.

  9. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Well, if you’re correct, then as far as I’m concerned the Dodgers should seek to unload him ASAP. Only time will tell.

    In the meantime I’ll continue to believe that Hanley would ultimately buy into a move to 3B, and believe that your sources are wrong on this one. Nothing but gut feeling, since I have no evidence to back it up. But my guess is that sources aren’t always on target.

  10. Badger says:

    Putting Hanley at short does not seem like that big a deal to me. It’s what to do with Gordon that becomes the question. Yeah, let Ramirez play short if it’s that important to him. It’s not like Gordon nailed down that position by playing like Omar Vizquel when he was out there. Dee was actually pretty bad. He could sure cover the ground at 2b, and who knows, maybe in 5 years he gets that job back. Or maybe he is gone by next month, who knows.

    Jas… how can you tell if a guy is out of shape just by looking at him? If he isn’t overweight, then…… what is he? Round in the face? Yeah, I guess he is. So is Miguel Cabrera.

    What happened to Tony Jackson? You know what.. it never crossed my mind. He isn’t with ESPN Los Angeles anymore?

    OK… I’ll ask…..hey ned sucks… what’s new?

  11. Mark_Timmons says:

    Brooklyn,

    My source (singular) absolutely knows.

  12. Gonzo says:

    Mark I think that James Loney numbers during his good years with the Dodgers would be excellent for the LF position. I based my assumption about you proclaiming that that ship had sailed meant that you expect him to fail. But you don’ pick sides like the rest of us. You sort of do, but then throw a disclaimer at the end that will allow you to change your opinion or give us the I told you so. Smooth my friend.

    • Badger says:

      James Loney stats? Well, his .282 career avg. and .339 OBP would be acceptable, but I would expect Crawford to score a lot more runs, steal A LOT more bases and have more extra base hits.

      I interpreted the “ship had sailed” comment the same way Gonzo, and actually Mark may be right in one respect – I would be very surprised to see 6.6 WAR years out of Crawford. In the years mentioned ’04 through ’10, Crawford averaged a 4.3 WAR. I suppose he could reach that, but I really don’t expect it. If he gives us a 3+ WAR that could mean he is scoring over 90 runs and playing good defense. I don’t care how much he is paid. The Gugg Group is loaded.

    • Mark_Timmons says:

      Gonzo,

      My \”side\” is the Dodgers side. I hope that Crawford will do well, but I think we all know he probably won\’t be the payer he once was. It is a big risk. A lot of baseball people think the Dodgers are really stupid.

      Now, I am not a person who believes in conventional wisdom, but in this case, the Dodgers are taking a big risk. Let me put this in perspective – for a little more than Crawford makes, the Dodgers could probably get Josh Hamilton!

      That\’s sad!

  13. Bball says:

    Josh Hamilton is a fake Christian pompass jackass. He’s a good ball player but so ful of himself. Pass.

  14. Anonymous says:

    Does that make you true Satan worshipping Hater?

  15. Gionfriddo says:

    Mark, first off the 2 genius’ you quote on Crawford are a brick short and it says something that you would even add them to your article. The first clown states Crawford is “not that good a hitter” and then proceds to compare him to Winn, J Lugo, Carlos Pena & J Cantu. Let’s see– are .292 career hitters who have led their respective leagues in triples ( FOUR TIMES) and SB’s (FOUR TIMES) just not that good of hitters?? Zero credibility for that guy.. The 2nd clown states “anybody who saw Crawford play in 2010 should have seen the meltdown coming”?? are you serious or clueless?

    Crawford in ’10– .307 19 HR, 90 RBI, 13 triples (led AL), 110 runs, 47 SBS, .356 OBP%— anybody breathing out there believe that any GM should have seen the “meltdown” that was coming from Crawford after witnessing his ’10 season in which he was TERRIBLE?

    Rather than continue this negativity in regards to Crawford I’m going to choose to see what happens when the guy is 100% healthy and is in the lineup come April– that’s when the rubber will meet the road on this subject…

  16. Badger says:

    Well done friddo.

    Josh Hamilton? You do know that he will be 32 and has had surgery. Doesn’t that put him on some kind of risk list?

  17. Gonzo says:

    I wanted Hamilton, but as a 1B. He gets injured too much as an OF. We now have Gonzo, so it’s a moot point.

  18. Rob says:

    Hamilton in Los Angeles with his addiction history would be bad news for him staying sober.

  19. jerry says:

    if cruz is not are starting third base man..then get rid of urbibe and kenndy and he can be the back up..does any one like that idea.

  20. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Mark,

    I’ll accept what you say about your source, if only because I don’t have any sources. But in truth, I’m not sure anybody “absolutely knows”. However, I have no problem with Hanley at short and Gordon at 2B. I think range is extremely important at 2B, especially up the middle, and maybe even to allow the left handed throwing Gonzalez to cheat a little closer to the foul line, knowing that Gordon’s range covers him to a degree in the 3.5 hole. And, remembering Manny Trillo, it doesn’t hurt to have a second baseman with a strong arm turning double plays. If Gordon plays 2B, I imagine it would be in a platoon with Mark Ellis, and perhaps over time would become Dee’s position full-time. And it’s not a bad thing to have a second baseman who can shift over to short on occasion. What I do want is for Gordon to succeed, and the Dodgers to have his speed in the lineup as often as possible. And even sitting on the bench on the days Ellis plays, Gordon is a weapon off the bench late in games, if only as a pinch runner (especially one that could stay in the game, if necessary).

    I’ve mentioned Josh Hamilton in the past. And in his case, I would depend on the Dodgers doing a thorough due diligence to determine whether or not they think his demons or proneness to injury would re-surface. If they have absolute confidence in Puig over the long haul, and Hamilton presents too much of a risk, then they’re probably best off not pursuing him. On that I’ll trust they’re judgment.

    Definitely think the Dodgers will add starting pitching. How they go about it will likely depend on what’s available via free agency and/or trades. I don’t have any preferences at this time, and just have to trust that the Dodgers have more information that I do, and that they know what they’re doing.

    And I don’t think payroll is a huge issue at this time. I believe Badger summed it up perfectly when he said “The Gugg Group is loaded.” Something tells me that there’s a lot of cash in the coffers when I read that Guggenheim is considering a bid for AEG.

    http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/lat-sp-dn-dodgers-aeg-bid-guggenheim-20121002,0,5974067.story

    With that, and the upcoming TV venture, I think that Gugg’s is currently investing heavily in what it sees as a “synergy in marketing and sponsorship”. With a full winter under their belt, I believe that Gugg’s is looking to push the Dodgers attendance to 4 million next year, and if memory serves, I believe McCourt’s contract with Fox allows for the Dodgers to begin pursuing a new deal (that would commence in 2014) next month.

    Should be an interesting offseason.

  21. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    By the way, that whole “synergy in marketing and sponsorship” thing is what I believe led Gugg’s to bid $2.15 billion for the Dodgers. And if there’s any truth in the report that the involvement of the bankruptcy court enables the Dodgers to avoid sharing media revenues with MLB, then all the more reason to believe that they were thinking more about the whole picture, and not just the Los Angeles Dodgers, when they bid over $2 billion for the team. Maybe the Yankees will begin to dream of being the Dodgers of the east.

    • Badger says:

      Wish I had more synergy. I could use a sponsorship too.

      “Maybe the Yankees will begin to dream of being the Dodgers of the east.”

      Good line.

      Article about Kemp’s surgery this morning in the Times suggest it’s not good news. Shoulder was worse than they thought. One of the comments after the piece was “and the Dodgers kept playing him. Female trainers must go”. Anyone care to comment on that one. Not me.

      Dilbeck asks the question “Will the Dodgers go after Greinke” then proceeds to not answer it. I don’t think so, but, if Lilly and Bills aren’t coming back, they have to after somebody, because, well, pitchers break.

  22. Badger says:

    Jake Peavy anyone?

    Sox are going to decline his 22M option. He has had his best year in a long time (5.0 WAR) – better than Greinke if you believe the statheads. He will want a multi year deal, of course, they all do, but can this year’s numbers be trusted?

  23. Gionfriddo says:

    Badger, I was just NOW typing out the scenario where Peavy is pursued and I like the idea. Let me preface that by saying my 1st preference like every Blue fan is Greinke. However, if Greinke decides to stay up the road then my next targets would be Price & Shields (via trade) or Peavy in FA.

    Peavy is still relatively young and is once again healthy after the shoulder surgery from 2 years ago– his #’s from ’12– 11-12, 3.37 era, 219 inn, 197 K’s, 1.09 whip, 4 CG’s.. ALL of that while pitching in that band box known as US Cellular.. Peavy is a gritty gamer who would be perfect slotted behind Kershaw IMO…

    He has a 22 million option in Chicago which will be declined for a 4 mill buyout– I’m thinking 3 yrs @ 33 million… the negative naysayers will be out in full force over such a deal, but Peavy and the way he goes about his business would fit nicely in LA..

    • Badger says:

      I have heard great minds think alike.

      I wonder where you and I fall?

      Yeah, Peavy looks back. What I noticed was 219 IP of 1.096 WHIP. Greinke didn’t do that. And a 5 WAR is enormous. Greinke didn’t do that. You know the agent will put on a full court press for the WAR/salary ratios and demand multi-year $20+MM. I suspect 3 at 33 won’t get it. You better start with 3 at 45 and be prepared to go up. Greinke is younger…. but Peavy has a mean streak that I like. He was nails in San Diego and this year he looked as good as he was there.

  24. Gionfriddo says:

    Just a sidebar on Peavys’ ’12 season– yes, he was 11-12, which is very Harang-esque, but he lost FOUR games this year in which he gave up ONE earned run in those games… Badger, you are probably right about the 3 @ 33 million deal, especially after I just read an article about Peavy and his new agent, Jeff Berry (Peavys long time agent, Barry Axelrod has joined the D Back front office).. Berry represents Matt Cain and Mark Buerhle and got them huge deals this past yr (Cain 6 @127 Buerhle 6 @ 54), so it’s safe to say my idea is pie in the sky– might be closer to 4 yrs-48/54 that’s a starting point for Peavy..

  25. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I’ll comment on the “Female trainers must go” comment. Pure nonsense. Maybe the male doctor should go. Wasn’t it the doctor and the radiologist (maybe it was a female radiologist) who read the scans? Doesn’t the doctor also prescribe the course of treatment? I’m not happy about the results, but I’m at least comforted by the fact that A-Gon had the same surgery and followed it up by hitting .338 with 27 HR in 2011, after a slow start in April. And like Kemp, it was his non-throwing shoulder. And since A-Gon was playing in Boston in 2011, it could be that his slow start had something to do with the cooler weather in the east in April.

    By the way, didn’t the guy who made the comments about our female trainers, Hollywood Dodger Mark, used to post on this site?

    Peavy. I don’t have a clue. Shoulder surgeries make me nervous. But it is encouraging that he did throw 219 innings, and had the stuff to record 197 K’s. Maybe there’s a crazy team out there that will offer $20 million per year, or maybe everyone will be scared away by his history, and keep the final salary number reasonable. And if the White Sox reject $22 million for ONE YEAR (really $18 million, since they’re paying $4 million), is it reasonable to conclude that Peavy will get $20 million per year over multiple years? Probably yes, I guess.

    • Badger says:

      Probably yeah. Isn’t there always some team that outbids another team that is overbidding? Seems like it.

      Pitchers break. That’s a great quote, and since this one already broke once, is over 30 with a surgery on his record, he can’t possibly be worth a multi-year contract.

      And yet, his surgeon, who gave him less than a 50% chance of being elite again, says this particular problem with his shoulder is a non issue.

      http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120503&content_id=30324530&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

      The White Sox aren’t interested. Wonder why. $22 million for a 5 WAR ain’t out of line. Do they know something? Or maybe they are going after the younger Greinke with that $22XL?

      Agree with your view on the trainers Brooklyn.

  26. Anonymous says:

    With the deals of Wells ($42 million remaining for 2013-2014), the Cubs’ Alfonso Soriano ($36 million remaining for 2013-2014) and Giants’ Barry Zito ($27 million for 2013 plus a 2014 buyout) winding down, situations where a team is experiencing a comparable enough level of buyer’s remorse to swing a deal for Crawford aren’t readily apparent.

  27. jeff says:

    Crawford just needs to bat leadoff and get on enough to score 100 runs. He doesn’t need to hit home runs or drive in runs, just get on base and score.

  28. Corey says:

    I don’t think the Dodgers will have any interest in Hamilton this offseason. What I don’t get are the comments from people about how it would be really bad in LA with his past. Are you kidding me he plays in Arlington, right next to Dallas. Anyone think you can’t find anything an addict would want there?

Trackbacks/Pingbacks


Leave a Reply

Mandatory Daily Dodger Reading