Categorized | Mark Timmons

It’s Time You Got Educated

It appears to me that some of you have no clue how to buy something… and get a good deal.  Most of you want to be able to trade an obscure player for Ryan Braun – it doesn’t work that way!

When you say that “this player’s stats are not as good as Loney’s or whoever, so we shouldn’t trade for him”, you only show you are green as grass.

You buy a player when he undervalued and sell him when he is overvalued!

Remember that.

You guys want to be able to trade for a guy who is hitting .500 with 78 HR and 145 RBI and only give up a single A prospect who has 30 AB’s.

It doesn’t work that way.

I’ll give you an example of the way it works:

  1. Ned decides that the Dodgers could use (let’s use Morneau as an example) Justin Morneau at 1B;
  2. So we look and see that Morneau is hitting only .234 with 10 HR.  Wait, we don’t want a guy like that.  We want a .300 hitter who has 20 HR.  Don’t trade for that bum Morneau;
  3. We have to look back and see what he has done in the past and then see what has happened recently – Morneau has missed parts of two seasons with a concussion, but is now “allegedly OK;”
  4. Ned has to figure out if he really is OK – at this point scouting is the only way (asking questions too);
  5. So, let’s say Ned decides that he’s healthy and that a change of scenery can make a difference, so he goes after him (never underestimate what a change of scenery can do to a player – such as going to a team in the hunt from a team that is in the dump);
  6. Ned has an idea of what he would want to pay.  Let’s say that it’s Shawn Tolleson, Allen Webster and Chris Withrow (the Twins need pitching);
  7. The Twins GM has an idea of what he wants and it might be Zach Lee, Garrett Gould, Shawn Tolleson and Allen Webster;
  8. Ned doesn’t want to pay that much and the Twins GM makes a few calls to other teams who are interested and sees what the market might be;
  9. This can go back and forth for a long time and since the Dodgers have new ownership flush with cash, the price will be higher than if the Twins GM was dealing with the Giants;
  10. Medical records need to be checked at some point in time to determine if he is indeed healthy;
  11. Then the issue of what to do with your current 1B comes up and you have to work out a deal there too (maybe Loney goes to Minnesota… maybe not);
  12. Remember, Ned wants to pay as little as possible and the Twins want to get as much as possible – it’s not always a simple process;
  13. If Morneau were hitting .320 with 25 HR and 62 RBI, the price would be much higher – the trick is to buy a player when he is down and get him to go up – that’s tricky business, but two small examples are Bobby Abreu and Juan Rivera who have both been impact players after bombing with their earlier teams.

This process will take time while all the suspects are vetted.  It would be great if a trade could be made now, but unless you want Ned to really overpay – it’s going to be a while.

The Dodgers no longer have the best record in baseball, but none of us thought that they were really the best team, especially without Kemp, Lilly and Ellis.  The Dodgers are doing as well as can be expected.  I believe they will make a move or three, but it takes a while for the process to resolve itself.

What needs to happen is for Ethier and Loney to step-up, especially Andre.  He should be the team leader with Matt out, but he has been in the tank all month.  Andre needs to wake up and play!

  • When is Mattingly going to quit hitting Hairston #5?
  • AJ Ellis – still All-Star worthy?
  • Tony Gwynn, Jr. is showing why he is a 4th or 5th outfielder – he can’t hit!
  • Bobby Abreu and Juan Rivera are not regulars but they can form a nice bench.
  • Dee Gordon needs to sit a couple of games.

This is the linup I would run out there against a LH today:

  1. Herrera  SS
  2. Hairston 2B
  3. Ethier  RF
  4. Rivera  LF
  5. Ellis  1B
  6. Uribe  3B
  7. Treanor  C
  8. Gwynn CF

Jared Massey’s Minor League Report – 6/20/12

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

29 Responses to “It’s Time You Got Educated”

  1. Badger says:

    Agree. And that is why I have said things just like this for a few years now.

    And this….. let’s find the guys on their way up.

    The best gauge at what a player might do in the future is looking at what he has done in the past. There are two caveats to this approach:

    1. if possible, try to get this player before he hits the age of 30. It is at 33-34 that those numbers will LIKELY start regressing. Not always true, but, usually true. Especially in the post steroid era. Let’s find players that will give the team at least 3 years of top productivity.

    2. understand that there are very few hitters that will come to Los Angeles and actually improve their stats. Chavez is a well known pitching friendly ballpark.

    2.5 You also might want to consider the NL West ballparks in your formula.

    A great GM would be scouring the minor leagues and be able to find THE players that will step into a Dodger uniform, in Chavez Ravine, in the NL West, and flourish. As for hitters, I am thinking athletic line drive hitters with speed and high OBP. (Jacoby Ellsbury) With pitchers, I am thinking we already know how to find them.

    I would be fine with going back to the way we used to do things in this organization – guys like Garvey, Cey, Lopes, Buckner, and maybe even a little further back, guys like Willie Davis and Tommy Davis, Maury Wills with Koufax and Drysdale on the mound.

    I hope the new management team has sat down and developed a winning strategy. You do know that with a different owner, we would have Sabathia in our rotation now.

    Who knows, maybe these guys can get a guy like Hamilton to come to L.A..

  2. Roger Dodger says:

    True – the Dodgers have been in 1st place most of the way in the N.L. West this season.

    True – the Dodgers figured out a way to win many many many close games with timely hitting, solid pitching, and some nice fielding.

    True – the Dodgers have a new life in them, especially now that new ownership has come on board.

    Up for Review – the Dodgers have a very weak major league team on the field.

    1 – a SS that has potential, but seems to be learning every day — and one of his best skills should be having the infielders on defense going crazy — but he cannot bunt and has not learned to slap the ball around.

    2 – There is no real 3b. Uribe keeps getting the nod when he can play, but he is of no help to this team, 19 out of 20 games.

    3 – Since the injury to Mark Ellis, 2b has become a water hole, everyone stops by and tries to play.

    4 – 1b, Loney has not showed up all season. Others playing there are really out of position.

    5 – LF is another water hole.

    6 – C for some is solved. But I think this team needs a better catcher. Sure he is hitting about .290 — but a very weak .290. For the last 10 games he is hitting .214 with 1 RBI, I repeat 1 RBI and zero HRs. His catching is average. BUT he is a nice guy.

    Pitching has kept the guys in the N.L. lead. Also what has kept them in the lead is the terrible start the Giants and DBacks had this season. And if Tim L. were pitching like in past seasons, the Giants now would be in first place.

    The Oakland A’s have held the Dodgers to a total of 5 hits in the first 2 games and 1 run. And last night — the only run the Dodger got is when the ball Uribe hit that was scored a double — was really caught and the fielder, while rolling over, had the ball go out of his glove and flipped in away. AND, in both games (other than the misplayed Uribe ball) 4 singles.

    The guys have held their heads above water most of the season. But I think the league (and the other league) have them figured out now.

    When Kemp comes back, I think they need more than just Kemp. He can be pitch against.

    When I watch Quick Pitch in the morning (1 hour of recaps on the MLB Network), I see players from other teams — really swing, and hitting the ball hard. Funny thing, I do not see that from Dodger players very much.

    Herrera and Ethier are doppping faster than a box of rocks. Abreu is doing what most of us thought he would do at his age and station in life. But this team needs some new blood now. Yes, and will have to give up some of the farm to do it.

    • ken says:

      Amen

      PS we do not need another Platoon player to replace the platoon player Loney.

      Morneau

      BA LHP .093

      BA RHP .304

    • the truth hurts says:

      double amen. best comment of the year so far goes to Rodger Dodger!

      I love the optimism but every point Rodger made is hard to turn a blind eye too.

      As long as Kemp is out, I think Ethier will continue to regress.

      keep the faith

  3. Kevin says:

    Ellis at 1B? Glad your not the manager.

  4. Bobbie17 says:

    I saw the boys play live last night in Oakland for the second straight day. BAD.
    It looks like they are going through the motions. Anaheim should be ugly for them.
    I would be nice if they can win today and one in OC. That’s about the best they can
    do. In batting practice last night, Kemp was hitting bombs and so was JoLo again.
    Neither played. There was a nice tribute to Mark Ellis before the game. Both Ellis
    and Kemp were running wind sprints before the game. They looked ok.

  5. Roger Dodger says:

    When the Dodgers were in Houston earlier this season, I watched Loney taking batting practice. He put bunches of balls in the right field stands. He even hit a HR that game.

    But this batting practice bit. I know the guys get the batting practice pitchers to lob the ball so they can get their stroke down; and wow the fans.

    But maybe, just maybe, the batting practice pitches need a bit more zip to them, and movement. It is clear that Loney has not clue what he is doing with live pitching in a game. This guy used to be a good hitter. But he seems to be a shell of his earlier major league life.

  6. Badger says:

    Batting practice means nothing. All those guys can put them in the seats during batting practice. Heck, I could probably reach the left field warning track during batting practice. Throw in some breaking balls, some change ups and add about 10′ to that fastball and I would be lucky to foul one off.

    This recent lack of hitting should come as no surprise to anyone. We all knew that the replacement players we had in there were all playing with positive WAR’s and that pace could not be sustained. The goal, as far as I could see it, was to stay at or above .500 until the deadline. With Kemp and Ellis back, that could be done. And at that time, depending on what team does what between now and then, there is a great chance the needed players will be available.

    In the mean time, welcome your 2012 Los Angeles Dodgers back to the planet earth. This is not a strong offensive club. Never was really, but, now and then teams play over their heads. It is rare that a team plays over their heads for 162 games.

  7. Bobby says:

    THIS lineup we’ve had out there the past few days, as well as this proposed lineup Mark suggests for today, is precisely the reason a guy like Youkliss will not help whatsoever. He is just horrible this year, and I seriously doubt leaving Fenway Park and the Green Monster and entering Chavez Ravine, and Petco and AttPark, will all of the sudden make him become Albert Pujols.

    We need a real hitter. This lineup needs a stud. Yes, we need Matt Kemp and a non-slumping Ethier, but we need a stud. Loney/Uribe have proved they belong in AAA, and the rest of the guy are just guys that aren’t asked to to be middle of the order hitters.

    Morneau could be that guy. He’s proved multiple times he’s a stud, and it looks as if he’s recovered from his concussion. There is a much, much, greater chance that Morneau becomes out 3rd bopper, than Youkliss, or than a resurgent Loney/Uribe.

  8. Dusto says:

    This team needs everyday contributors at 1B and 3B. And if were really lucky, they will realize that speed is an accessory and not a necessity to play short stop. Dee has been BAD defensively, almost as bad defensively as he has been bad with the bat. If we can just get a marginal upgrade at each of those positions I will be happy. But we really don’t need any more pitching for the sake of depth. It turned out so well we got Octavio Dotel. I just don’t want to see that again.

  9. Dusto says:

    AJ ELLIS leading the Dodgers in WAR for the season at 2.8.

  10. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I don’t know if Youkilis is healthy enough to contribute. But, in fact, the Dodgers don’t need a huge power hitter at first base. I believe Youkilis is a gap to gap hitter, which plays well in NL West ballparks, and I know that he’s an on-base machine when healthy. If he’s OK, then he’d be a valuable piece to help lengthen the Dodger lineup, especially after Kemp comes back, hopefully with a healthy hammy.

    Add in another productive bat at either first or third, and the Dodgers will be just fine. In fact, just not having Uribe in the lineup is a plus. If there was ever a rally killer, it’s Uribe.

  11. ken says:

    How about a really BIG Trade?

    Loney 1B
    Gwynn CF
    Ellis C
    Lilly SP 2012
    Lee SP 2013
    Martin SP 2014
    Total 20 mil gone

    FOR

    Morneau 1B
    Span CF
    Mauer C
    40 Million IN

    The twins have only one starter with an ERA below 5.00

  12. Roger Dodger says:

    Right now I would settle for just trading the entire 25 Dodgers for the Oakland A’s.

  13. Dusto says:

    Honestly, I think Uribe has some value on this team, just not daily. He could be a valuable bench piece. Maybe we can platoon Uribe and Gordon from time to time. Gordon has been a terrible defender so far this season and his bat equally as bad. At least Uribe is only kinda mostly bad instead of the horrible suckitude that is Dee Gordon.

    Whatever happened to Juan Rivera being a legitimate bat? He’s been worse than Gordon.

  14. ken says:

    Then trade
    Uribe
    Lots of Cash
    Peterson and SVS

    For Headley

    Then trade Harang
    Reed Sanchez and Baldwin

    For Hamel

    Line up 8/1/2012
    Gordon SS L
    Ellis 2B R
    Ethier RF L
    Kemp LF R
    Mauer C L
    Headley 3B R
    Morneau 1B L
    Span CF L

    Starter Pitchers
    Hamels L
    Kershaw L
    Bills R
    Capuano L
    Eovaldi R

    Just Wishing :)

  15. Roger Dodger says:

    Well now. 9th inning and all tied up. Runner at 3rd base and 1st base. No outs.

    Back earlier. Gordon, this Dee Gordon, learning on the job. On a rookie catcher he cannot steal a base. It has to be getting a poor jump. I mean he is supposed to be fast.

    QUESTION: Does good pitching stop good hitting? Or does mediocre hitting make mediocre pitching look great?

    Yes, I’ll trade this Dodger team for the A’s.

  16. Badger says:

    Another weak offensive performance. They are starting to add up.

    Twins won’t trade Mauer, he is a local hero. And Morneau may or may not be a stud in L.A.. He was great right up to the time he hasn’t been good at all, which is the last two years. Is he whole? iontkno. But he sure hasn’t done much in a long time.

    I understand the frustration and the need to find a thumper and find one NOW! But, there just isn’t much out there yet. We may have to wait another month. I accept it. I sure don’t want to fire all our guns at once, and then float into space. That could easily happen. If it’s me, I wait and see what might just come our way. For example: the Marlins look like crap lately, have lost three in a row and are 1 game out of last place in their division. IF they continue to tube, they may be willing to part with 3b Hanley Ramirez who is owed 31 XXL for the next two years. How would like him at 3b? You just never know what might happen in late July.

  17. Kevin says:

    Just enjoy the ride fellas….as frustrating it can be at times. If you told me at the beginning of the year we would be 4 games up after 70 played I would have been estatic. If you would have told me we were without Kemp for 1/2 of those games and were 4 games up I straight up wouldn’t have believed you. Everyone wants that big thumper but you all seem to forget that we are going to be getting one right around the All Star break. That’s better than a trade in my book.

  18. ken says:

    On second thought no one would trade for any of these Dodger bums.

    Dee Dee still can’t bunt. Next time Dee Dee is scheduled to bat in the 8th or 9th inning and the situation calls for a bunt Donnie should use his brain and pinch hit for Dee Dee with one of the pitchers. Even Treanor can bunt better than Dee Dee.

    http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=dee+dee+doodle&view=detail&id=F5269E8322710643BD2E429FD3F0739E15CCBAF1&first=1

  19. Gionfriddo says:

    That’s true, we do get Kemp back in 25-30 days, but that is not the issue… it’s the dead weight that is being run out there on a daily basis… Kennedy SHOULD NEVER see the field in a big league uni– he’s done, his bat speed is pathetic… Uribe is a train wreck @ this point in time and they need to cut him a check for 10 mill and change (remainder of this yr and next) and DFA him.. Josh Fields can do what he is doing, right?? Yes, they need to tread water til Kemp (and Mark Ellis) get back but the repairs need to happen NOW… If, and that’s a BIG IF, we are 1 up or 2 up when Kemp gets back it will be a miracle…

  20. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Roger, that rookie catcher made a perfect throw to the right side of the bag. It had nothing to do with Gordon’s jump. If that throw wasn’t PERFECT, Gordon is safe. Gordon needs to polish his game, no doubt, but give the catcher credit, rookie or not.

    Adding Kemp back into the mix will definitely be a big boost. It not only adds a big bat back into the lineup, but also offers protection to Ethier and others in the lineup.

    I disagree with the comment above that Uribe would be a valuable bench piece. Uribe is not a valuable bat off the bench, because quite simply, he can be pitched too. Yes, he might run into a pitch every now and then, but so might any number of players. Want a great defensive third baseman that can’t hit, strikes out a lot, and can’t find his way on base, then how about Brandon Inge of Oakland? I don’t know if at 35 he can play the defense he used to, but if he can, then he’s better than Uribe. I’m not suggesting the Dodgers grab him, because, as I noted above, like Uribe he can’t hit, but will pop one once in a while.

    Clearly I don’t like Uribe. And just as clearly, I’d like to see him gone for the proverbial bag of balls. Heck, I’d take just a couple of resin bags. Uribe is a bad player, and his presence in the lineup is a huge detriment to this team. Until a replacement can be found (I’d love Hanley Ramirez), I’d rotate Hairston, Herrera and De Jesus between 2B and 3B. And when Ellis comes back, I’d alternate who ever was left at 3B. And Uribe, I’d just DFA. I’ll keep saying it, Uribe hurts this team.

    • Gionfriddo says:

      It has nothing to do with liking or disliking Uribe.. has to do with him being a terrible offensive player and an avg @ best defensive player, PERIOD…….. 3 years, 21 million deal?? Kasten should can Ned on that deal by itself—- not to mention the great deals involving Pierre, Jones, Schmidt, etc…

  21. Roger Dodger says:

    Brooklyn, I hear you on Dee and the attempted stolen base. In my mind, there are times in a game, in a season — where a player with certain skills does something that elevates their game. A time when he is to: get a base hit, to get a strikeout when he needs to, to steal a base because the game is on the line (not just to get bunches of stolen bases).

    And that time for Dee Gordon was late in the game today. All of his speed, training, practice, and study on the art of stealing bases — needed to be put on show.

    The Dodgers are 3-6 in their last 9 games. And dropping 3 in Oakland hurts.

    I agree with Mark, this is indeed the time the Andre Ethier needs to step up his game and take over leadership on that lineup. He needs to put the ball into play with base hits.

    Andre is .216 over the last 10 games. 1 HR and 7 RBIs and 4 of those in one game. And no RBIs in the last 6 games. In the last 10 games he has struck out 12 time with only 3 walks. Teams have learned to pitch to him.

  22. Badger says:

    Interesting takes.

    Who knew the Dodgers would be in first place at this point in the season? I sure didn’t figure it, so Dee’s mistakes don’t bother me that much. I figured this was on OJT year for him. Let’s face it, he should have one more year in the minors to polish all this up, but, since nobody really thought the Dodgers figured into post season plans, so what he makes a lot of mistakes? Hopefully he won’t make them next year. But the incredible start has brought expectations. Many are acting like we should be where we are, and all these players that have mediocre talent should by gosh keep playing over their heads. I thought this schneid was coming eventually. The question for me is, how long does it last. If reinforcements aren’t found, this could last months.

    And, if Ethier doesn’t step up his game it tells me he can’t carry a club. Kemp does that, and Andre just rides the tide Matt creates. If Andre don’t hit, the Dodgers won’t win.

    So…. what do we do? I still wait. Try to steal a win now and then, keep pitching well, get Kemp and Ellis back, and see who comes available in the next 30 days. Could be an ugly 30 days. Brace yourselves.

  23. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Roger, if the throw was a bit higher or a bit further to the left, Gordon is safe, and then perhaps he’s a hero. The difference between success and failure in that situation is razor thin, and cannot be what determines whether or not a player has elevated his game or not. That was a play where Gordon did his job, and was beaten by a catcher who rose to the occasion with a perfect throw.

    None of these players is perfect. Even Matt Kemp doesn’t always succeed in tough situations. In fact, he spent most of 2010 doing just that. Gordon has the skills, but lacks the polish that comes with maturity and experience. The Dodgers don’t have any other alternatives at shortstop, and none worth having are available. And as I’ve said before, no one is as good as they are when they’re at their best, nor as bad as they are when they’re at their worst. Maybe Gordon will continue to stumble for the rest of the season, or perhaps the light will suddenly go on (which for me is only a matter of time, be it this year or next) and Gordon will begin to shine from that point forward. Whatever the case, he’s gaining valuable experience this year, and that’s likely to translate into a better player next year and beyond. And with new ownership, maybe next and beyond is what we need to be concentrating on, and hope for the best this year. Again, there are no powerhouses in the NL West. Barring a complete collapse, the Dodgers are likely to be leading or contending late into the season. Add some reinforcements, and that becomes more likely.

    And let’s not forget that Gordon is essentially a rookie on a team that offers him very little protection. Maybe adding a bat or three will take some of the pressure off of his young shoulders. Besides, Gordon stealing the base or not is not the issue. The issue is, why the Dodgers can’t score often enough to avoid so many close situations late in games. And let’s not forget that Gordon has had walk off hits on more than one occasion this year. Badger is right. It’s OJT for Dee, on a team lacking in multiple areas. Gordon is not the issue, getting reinforcements around him, and the rest of the lineup is. Moves (the right ones) are necessary, and likely they won’t come until at or near the trading deadline at the end of July. And given the second wildcard, and the number of teams still in contention, it’s not likely that there are too many sellers out there just yet. That could change between now and the end of July. And by the way, let’s not forget that the Dodgers could conceivably end up as one of the teams vying for a wildcard berth.

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