Rant & Rave Wednesday

  • It turns out MadBum was just using the Dodgers to drive up his salary for the D-Bags… or maybe Friedman was driving up the salary the D-Bags had to pay the Bum… Oh nevermind, he is still a Bum! The D-Bags could be pretty good in 2020. They won’t win, but Mike Hazen has done a decent job.
  • On the other hand, the Giants and the Rockies are a trainwreck, but forget Aeranado – he will cost too much and while his defense will still be elite, his offense will suffer immensely away from Coors.
  • The same is true with Lindor… unless AF can get him for a song, I would not do it. I think AJ Preller will turn San Diego into a natural disaster – watch that one play out.
  • Betts is less costly because he comes with just one year of control… maybe a package of Pederson, Hernandez or CT3, Devin Mann, Cristian Santana, and Omar Estevez (or Miguel Vargas) could get the job done (maybe in a 3-way deal). That’s all I would offer. An outfield of Bellinger in CF flanked by Betts in RF and Verdugo in LF, with AJ Pollock as the 4th outfielder could be the best in baseball.
  • I would give up Edwin Rios in the right deal as well, although I like him. It’s just that he’s a lefty too. The Dodgers have a plethora of them.
  • Nicholas Castellanos is still on the market – no picks attached. I would take him over Donaldson any day and play him in LF.
  • I would sign Rich Hill to an incentive-laden deal and hope he can pitch in August, September, and October, but mostly, I just want him in the clubhouse.
  • A rotation of Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, Maeda, and May going into the season is absolutely fine with me. Other options will turn up before the trade deadline. I think many fans forget how good Julio Urias can be as a starter. The Dodgers have used him mostly as a reliever in recent times, but he will be stretched out during Spring Training. I fully expect 170 innings from him.
  • I also don’t think most Dodger fans understand just how good Josiah (Jo Jo) Gray and Jeter Downs can be. Jo Jo can be a #2 or #3 starter and Jeter could likely end up in CF. While not a speedster, he is quick and will likely hit .300 with 20+ HR in the Majors. AF absolutely fleeced the Reds in getting those two guys for junk! Some teams are a little timid to trade with the Dodgers because they think the Dodgers “know” something they don’t.
  • I would offer Ryu 3 years/$54 Million and the rest is up to him. If he wants to stay in LA, then he will take it. I don’t know if it’s true, but I have heard that the Dodgers have a 2 year/$40 Million deal on the table.
  • I hear that Alex Verdugo is just working on his “core” and will resume baseball activities next month. Allegedly, nothing sinister is going on with him. I hope that is true. He is an important part of the team’s core!
  • I do not care if the Dodgers sign a big free agent or never sign one as long as they are moving forward. Those of you who think signing free agents is the road to success are just uninformed! Sorry, but this is almost 2020 and dope-fiend moves seldom pan out. I am excited about the possibilities in 2020.
  • I like to get you Laker Fans riled up. I like the Lakers, but not LeBron – I despise his “Have gun, will travel” mercenary attitude whereby he stacks a team to his liking. The Lakers look to be the class of the NBA right about now, but you should be concerned with AD’s injury history and a 35-year-old superstar. Also, the Pacers are much better than some of you think. They have 4 new starters and are very young, but are off to a 19-9 start while learning to play together without their All-Star and All-Defensive guard, Victor Olodipo! He will be back soon and I expect to see the Pacers battle for the Conference Championship if healthy… which is true for a lot of teams.

WinterBall

So, in case I did not tell you, my eldest son has been in the Dominican Republic for 5 weeks shooting a movie called “WinterBall” directed by former MiLB Pitcher, Grady Hall. Mr. Hall was gracious enough to invite us to the set and my wife and my other son enjoyed every minute. We enjoyed a few drinks with him and he (his driver) gave us a ride back to the hotel from San Pedro De Macoris.

The start of the movie is Drew Roy who has been in several movies and TV series (Hanna Montana, ICarly, Lincoln Heights, Blink, et al). He was a cool guy and we had a few drinks on the beach after their Friday shoot.

We ended up at the Stadium in San Pedro De Macoris, home of Pedro Guerrero. It is a different world in the DR. On one hand, the Hotel, Casa Hemingway may be the nicest, if not the most amazing hotel I have ever been to. I think they are only around 30 rooms and ours was likely 1,500 square feet (yeah, I know). On the other hand, San Pedro De Macoris while not as poor as Haiti, is close. What a lifestyle contrast!

At the game, we saw the following players on the field: Logan Bawcom, Socrates Brito, Felix Pie, Jemier Candalerio, and Christain Bethancourt. It was a very sparse crowd because Estrallas is 20-26. My son was the lead camera and busy the whole time… especially with the “Stedi-Cam” (below).

It was a fun time… especially on the beach:

Stephen (on the L) is the only one in our family with tattoos. He went to St. Michael Junior High School and his name is obviously… Stephen. So his tattoos are of St. Michael and St. Stephen. However… he ain’t no saint!

Nick is on the right and his mom died when he was 9. Patty has been his mom for the past 22 years.

My Favorite Bob Seager Song

This article has 35 Comments

  1. Welcome back.

    Verdugo was interviewed on SNLA recently and said his back was fine and that he was working on strengthening his core. He also said he expected to be starting on opening day.

    Nice Bob Seger song, but it will always be “Against the Wind” for me.

    1. As I ride my bike frequently, I have “Against the Wind” stuck in my head way too often. 🙂

  2. You sure have a nice looking family Mark. Thank you for sharing those pictures. I loved Pedro Guerrero so much I named my parrot Pete after him. Always wondered how he was doing after his career was over. Sounds like he is doing well if they named a stadium after him.

  3. I’m guessing the Red Sox will want to package David Price’s contract in any deal to acquire Betts. But he’s 35 and coming off wrist surgery (removal of a cyst) so the question becomes… is acquiring Betts for a year worth three years of Price at $32 million per year? Otherwise, I think they will want a better trade package. I’d pass.

    But I do agree with Bill Plunkett, who covers the Dodgers for LA Daily News and Orange County Register, who believes Friedman will make an under the radar trade to improve the team. Apparently, still a lot of irons in the fire.

    $20 million, two years for Ryu sounds about right, but I’m sure Scott Boras is pushing three years minimum so three years, 54, seems reasonable. But the Angels may pursue him, so a good chance the Dodgers won’t get him without offering more dollars or another year.

    With or without Ryu, I like the Dodgers rotation of Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, Maeda and May with Gonsolin and Stripling contributing. Adding Hill into the mix on an incentive deal makes a lot of sense.

    Plunkett said nobody is certain what to think about Verdugo’s issue, Friedman hasn’t said much other than it’s not going to be a reoccurring type problem. Still, he hasn’t resumed baseball activities and most of his time is spent on strengthening the core, which makes sense at this point. But if it lingers into spring training, you may be looking at a return in May. Some have called the injury worrisome. But Verdugo did seem upbeat when interviewed.

    Jon Heyman called Gavin Lux untouchable. He’s the first name who comes up in every trade talk the Dodgers have, but the Dodgers, like many others in baseball, think he may be the next Francisco Lindor. Plunkett also said he doesn’t expect Lux to play any outfield and will end up being the starting second baseman. I’m guessing May is also untouchable. What is surprising is that Keibert Ruiz isn’t more of a trade target. Pretty good prospect and a switch hitter.

    I think one of the problems for the Dodgers in making trades is that they have so many good prospects at the very top like Lux and May that many teams simply focus on them. They may end up making a deal for another team’s first or second rated prospects. But in reality those players probably wouldn’t rank near the top of the Dodgers system. When you have nine players out of your system actually make contributions on a 106 win team, that should tell you something.

  4. – Mad Bum will regret the day he signed with the Dirtbacks
    – Spot on about Arenado and Lindor
    – Betts is terrific; any reasonable package put him in RF for 2020 and then re-sign him. May require taking on David Price and his bad contract, but that is doable if Bosox will take back Maeda and Pollock (~$21M CBT annual payroll) in the deal. Dodgers would have to make some other roster moves to make all the pieces fit, but worth the effort.
    -Rios or Beaty; one needs to go for help in other areas
    – Like Castellanos, but not a good fit for Dodgers with the current roster
    – Time to move on from Hill
    – I like Urias, but expecting him to pitch 170 innings when he has never pitched more than 87 in any season is wishful thinking. Expect Urias back in the bullpen, or traded. It is time for Dodgers and Maeda to go their separate ways. I would like to see Ryu return in place of Urias (or Price in trade with Betts), but it is going to take more than $54M.
    – Gray and Downs are keepers for sure

    1. I agree about Urias. The Dodgers have limited his innings out of an abundance of caution. He came back from a potential career ending injury and he wasn’t immediately needed in the rotation. I think he’s fully capable of throwing 170 innings.

      Who wouldn’t love to have Betts. But I can’t see any team eating all of Prices contract. Boston would have to pony up a good junk of that to any team. Especially with Betts as a rental.

      I’d also love to see Ryu back on a two year deal. But I think the Angels or a team in a similar position will overpay out of desperation. Boras knows how to play that game better than anyone. I think the Dodgers chances are low.

      I look forward to seeing the film. Never enough baseball movies, if you ask me.

  5. For this team to win a WS, Lux, Urias and May will have to become stars next year. I think that’s overly optimistic especially the pitching. I don’t like our chances if Kershaw is pitching twice in each series in the playoffs

  6. Well MT, I’m glad you’re back from the DR safely. But, you never provided an update on your interaction with the DR Mafia. Did you get your son paid?

    I would rather have Betts/Price than Lindor/Clevenger, but I would rather have Donalson/Ryu without the prospect costs. Then send some guys off for relievers.

    Downs had a hell of a year last year, but at the same age and at the same levels, Lux was superior the year before. Together they would make a hell of a double play combo, along the lines of Trammell/Whitaker.

    Casty over Donaldson? You’ve got to be kidding. And if that’s not bad enough, Rich “Over The” Hill is a bad idea. Signing any 40 YO pitcher coming off elbow and knee injuries is a bad idea. Even if we get no other pitchers, you’re not just throwing money away, you’re probably leaving a better pitcher off the post-season roster, just like you did last year with Gonsolin who most likely pitches past the 3rd inning in game 4.

    We basically got Gray and Downs for a (half) year of Puig. If we can flip them to the Red Sox for Betts and Price, I have no problem with it. Easy come, easy go. Right now, I like May, Urias and Gonsolin better than Gray, Lux better than Downs as referenced above.

    Ryu won’t receive an offer from the Dodgers until the Lindor/Clevenger and Betts/Price trades are exhausted. I have no problem paying him 3/60 to 3/70 if that’s what it takes to sign him. In case you haven’t noticed, pitchers get paid a lot. Hell, they gave Hill 3 years and he was older when they signed him than Ryu will be when he finishes a three year pact.

    I’m trying to figure out why so many on this site think Urias should be in the bullpen. Pretty much every starting pitcher would be better in the pen, so you have to make a better argument than that. Not one of the Dodgers SP prospects were as good as Urias in the minors and Urias was younger than all of them. Urias has great command and has better velocity and spin rate than Sherzer from the left side. He has a shot at being an Ace. Urias will be 23 next year. Sherzer made his debut at age 23.

    I’m wondering if we’re moving kids through the system too fast. Donaldson and Rendon had their first great years are age 27 and they were the top free agent bats this year. When you’re bringing up 21 year olds, you’re losing them to free agency before they hit their peek years. Slow down AF!

    Mark implies (if not states) that free agent signings are almost always a bust and his list of “untouchables” is approaching a 25 man roster. I’m wondering how many GMs went into their interviews with the pitch “We’re never gonna sign a free agent or make any trades and we’re gonna win the World Series”.

    1. I had nothing to do with it, but he has gotten partial payment. The whole crew (there has to be over 100) are grumbling about pay and how they are corrupt.

      That’s all I can say, until the filming over… then there will be more.

      The reason I like Casty more is that he is about 6 years younger and Donaldson has a recent history of leg injuries.

      Totally agree on Urias. I think he will be a stud and see no reason he can’t hit 170 IP!

    2. ….”Donaldson and Rendon had their first great years are age 27″
      Remind me again the age of Pederson?

      Sign him to a 3 year $30M contract while the Dodgers can.

      Verdugo and Pollock to Redsox for Betts, Price, and $21M. That brings Price AAV to the Dodgers down to $25M and cuts total AAV by another $12M via Pollock’s contract elimination. That makes the cost of Prices’s 150 innings (at best) to $13M and adds about $28M AAV for Betts for a total of $41M.

      1B Muncy
      RF Betts
      SS Seager
      CF Bellinger
      3B Turner
      LF Pederson 70%, Kike’ 30%
      C Smith and Barnes
      2B Lux

      To get Lindor at the top of that lineup I would offer Muncy, Taylor, Maeda, White, Santana, kitchen sink

  7. On the issue of limits on the increase in innings pitched for pitchers 25 and under, the concept was perhaps introduced to baseball fandom by Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated. He came up with something called The Verducci Effect. His observation was that young pitchers were at greater risk of injury if they increased their innings pitched more than 30% from one year to the next. While the jury is out on the accuracy of the rule, most baseball teams baby young pitchers and do not double the number of innings thrown from one year to the next.

    There is no way that Julio Urias or Tony Gonsolin throw the number of innings that Mark insists that they will. Urias is not only young and has never thrown more than 80 innings in a season, he has had a major arm breakdown even though he has been overly-protected by the Dodgers thus far. If he throws over 130 innings I will be surprised. Gonsolin is 25 already so they may not be as protective, but his first year as a starter was 2018 and he has not thrown over 128 innings in a season either.

    If the Dodgers do not resign Ryu and don’t trade for another SP, their young prospects will have to cover 2 rotation spots and they will have trouble getting enough innings out of them. I can see Ross Stripling in the rotation off an on all season as a 4th or 5th starter as a result. I like Stripling but he tires out in the 2nd half, so maybe the thought is to have him in the rotation until the All Star break and then insert one of the other kids.

  8. I do not understand why a rotation of Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, May, and Maeda is fine with many Dodgers fans. Buehler seems like a potential great pitcher, was very good last year, but not yet a proven great. Kershaw did pretty well during the regular season, not well in the playoffs, he is on a downward arc, how fast is not certain. Urias has been touted for years, but injuries and other things have derailed it. He has not at all proven that he will be a very good starting pitcher for an entire season. May has a lot of potential, but also has not had one full season of being a starter, much less a very good one. He could be two years away from that, as could Urias. Maeda is a stopgap, he pitches pretty well early on, and then tails off. His strength is as a late-inning reliever.

    Oh, it is possible that everything works out in a great way. But this is not an impressive starting rotation, and actually reminds me of some other Dodgers projected staffs, in exactly what years I cannot precisely remember, which had one proven star, one declining star, and some other prospects of whom great things were predicted. It almost never worked out. There are too many things which would have to fall in place. I n fact, it is just as likely that things would go the other way, and we would have only sporadic good starts from most of our staff, with bad performances, losing streaks, and few long winning streaks. I don’t see how you can lose your #2 pitcher last year, not replace him with a proven star, and expect to do as well.

    I don’t want Price, I have never been a fan. And particularly not for that money. But the Dodgers, having passed or missed on everyone else, seem to have painted themselves into a corner, the only way out of which would be amazing growth, maturity and endurance by a number of pitchers who have never come close to pitching a full season of major league baseball as a starting pitcher.

    1. All Dodgers need to do to reduce innings is to go with a 7 man rotation?
      Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, May, Stripling, Gonsolin, and Maeda through mid July.

    1. For those who do not have a subscription, here are the rankings.
      The Top Ten:
      1. Gavin Lux, SS
      2. Dustin May, RHP
      3. Josiah Gray, RHP
      4. Miguel Vargas, 3B
      5. Keibert Ruiz, C
      6. Tony Gonsolin, RHP
      7. Diego Cartaya, C
      8. Jeter Downs, SS
      9. Kody Hoese, 3B
      10. Gerardo Carrillo, RHP

      The next 10:
      11. Michael Busch, 2B (Low-A Great Lakes)
      12. DJ Peters, OF (Triple-A Oklahoma City)
      13. Jacob Amaya, IF (High-A Rancho Cucamonga)
      14. Omar Estevez, IF (Double-A Tulsa)
      15. Mitchell White, RHP (Triple-A Oklahoma City)
      16. Connor Wong, C (Double-A Tulsa)
      17. Michael Grove, RHP (High-A Rancho Cucamonga)
      18. Dennis Santana, RHP (Los Angeles Dodgers)
      19. Cristian Santana, 3B/1B (Double-A Tulsa)
      20. Brett de Geus, RHP (High-A Rancho Cucamonga)

      Personal Cheeseball: Edwin Ríos, 4C (Los Angeles Dodgers)
      Low Minors Sleeper: Andy Pages, OF (Rookie-level Ogden)

      1. Interesting. They have Ruiz lower than I’ve seen on any other list. And they have Miguel Vargas much higher than any other list. I’m glad Miguel is getting some attention. He’s an impressive kid.

        1. Surprised he is rated above Ruiz at #4.

          Ruiz Scouting grades:
          Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 40 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55 | Overall: 55

          Vargas Scouting grades:
          Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 40 | Arm: 55 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45

          It will take a home run to score either from first base.

  9. Great pictures Mark. Very nice family. What a fascinating trip.
    I mentioned a few days, I’m wondering if you had an opportunity to gather any experience and thoughts on:
    * the MLB Academies in the DR (conditions, dedication to education as well as player development)
    * the amateur facilities
    * Biscones and their roles and influence in DR baseball including their role in blocking an international draft.

    On an MLB site I read an opinion attributed to Ken Rosenthal stating he didn’t think the Dodgers would be interested in a deal to get Frankie Lindor. The report said while Lux was untouchable the demand would be Verdugo, May, Ruiz and Downs for Lindor. Assuming there is any validity to this report (which I doubt) all I can say in “you are sh***ing me” ?

  10. There are several things here that don’t meet the eye here:

    1. There was no structural damage or fraying of Urias’ shoulder capsule, which is why he still easily hits 98 MPH with great spin;
    2. With his suspension and spending most of the season in the bullpen, he did only pit 80 innings, but the extra throwing during his suspension and sideline sessions might add up to 120+ innings in practice;
    3. He is now 23… he’s no longer a kid; and
    4. He is one determined individual, as shown below:

    Julio Urias was born with a benign mass in his left eye and over the years has undergone multiple procedures in order to help correct the eye. Most recently, Urias underwent a cosmetic procedure to help with the eye.

    Urias still has some of the mass in his eye, causing the partial blindness and forcing him to keep the eye closed when he is pitching. According to Urias, he can see through the eye, just not very well. Urias has a sunny disposition towards his condition and even went as far as to say this:

    “That’s how God works, He gave me a bad left eye but a good left arm.”

    1. Not to be argumentative, but throwing on the side is not the same as competitive pitching. We have all seen young pitchers (older than Urias) hit a wall when pitching beyond what they have ever done in the past. The most innings Urias has ever pitched as a professional was around 87 in the low minors and to expect him to pitch 170 is a real stretch. Even if your 120 number is correct, 170 is almost 42% greater — then there is post season. Love to be wrong.

      1. I don’t know but if he were hitting 90+ mph in simulated games then it would seem he was building up arm strength. Simulated games will never produce the Adrenalin that produces 96 mph in games or the times he has to pitch 30+ pitches in an inning under stressful conditions.

        1. In Urias’ 8 starts last season he pitched 30 innings – less than 4 innings per start. Don’t get me wrong, I would love to have Urias pitch even 150 innings as a starter, but there is nothing in his career that indicates that will happen in 2020

  11. Does James Moya post here regularly? I don’t think so, but if he (presumably) does, I’d love some further explanation of this post from yesterday?

    ——>Moneyball has never won a title.

    How are you defining “Moneyball”?

    1. James seems very bitter… and being bitter is like drinking poison and thinking someone else will die.

  12. Bluto – I too would like to hear a little more of “Inside Baseball with Jamey”… His posts provoke thought and have you in no time at all mumbling WT*….

  13. May Scouting grades:
    Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 60 | Cutter: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55

    Gray Scouting grades:
    Fastball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55

    Gonsolin Scouting grades:
    Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Splitter: 70 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

    Ruiz Scouting grades:
    Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 40 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55 | Overall: 55

    Downs Scouting grades:
    Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

  14. For what it’s worth, Ken Rosenthal is saying Ryu will get bare minimum 4 years 80 million total.

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