Rant & Rave Saturday

  • It was great to see Kim Ng get named the Florida Marlins’ General Manager. She is now the highest-ranking woman in baseball. Read the article by Molly Knight in The Athletic and you will know everything you need to know about Kim Ng. Congratulations, Kim – you earned it… a long time ago! Ken Rosenthal also has a great piece in The Athletic as well. You can find it HERE.
  • Here is what I say about Kim Ng: She should have been a GM long ago, but unlike many people who blame others and bitch about it, she just put her head down and worked… and worked and got even better. I am sick of hearing about victims and how it’s somebody else’s fault. Life is 90% this: Show Up, Step Up, Shut Up! Congratulations Kim! I really am happy for you.
  • The Dodgers Assistant GM, Jeff Kingston was one of the finalists for the Angel’s GM job, and the fact that he was not hired just further demonstrates how devoid of common sense Arte Moreno is. I am not calling him dumb – he just has bad luck when it comes to thinking! But, thank you, Arte for allowing Jeff to be with us another year – we can certainly use him.

Go For It?

Yesterday, JR suggested this:

Go for the jugular while you have the players. Look at the Cubs. Tomorrow may never come. You can never have enough pitching. Armchair GM here offering Tony Gonsolin, Josiah Gray, Mitchell White or Dennis Santana & Kiebert Ruiz or some similar type package for Blake Snell.”

Actually, the Cubs did go for the jugular. They did exactly what JR is suggesting… and it has crippled them. They traded Gleyber Torres for a few weeks of Aroldis Chapman (who helped get them to the World Series but did not win it for them). They traded Eloy Jimenez, along with Dylan Cease for Jose Quintana. They signed Yu Darvish and Jason Heyward to big contracts (I know Darvish had a good year last year) and made some other moves that weren’t so great.

The biggest mistake Theo Epstein made was not maintaining a healthy farm system and failing to build a player development machine as Andrew Friedman has built with the Dodgers. Friedman made some mistakes too, but he has always placed a high priority on keeping prospects. Now, in defense of Theo, the Ricketts family does not have deep pockets like Guggenheim has, so there is that.

The Dodgers need to keep doing what they have been doing. Make that occasional Mookie-Type Trade… and make no mistake, the Dodgers paid a lot to get that Once-in-a-Generation Player, but they are not going to keep doing it. Andrew Friedman will make an occasional deal, he will do a lot of shopping at Dollar General and sign some free agents you may wonder about, but he is going to keep the farm system strong.

You never know which players will figure it out and which ones will just flame out, but the better the pool of players and the better your “development machine” the better the results. We do not know what players took steps forward last year and which ones took a step back. Gavin Lux seems to be someone who took a step back, but we have no idea why and if he’s ready to take four steps forward.

The Dodgers have so many players who COULD be ready in the next two years, but we cannot predict who will and who won’t. There is strength in numbers. Here’s what I will say: “I would not be surprised if any ONE of the following players made the team at some point in 2021“:

  • Josiah Gray
  • Keibert Ruiz
  • Kody Hoese
  • Mike Busch
  • Bobby Miller
  • Clayton Beeter
  • Mitch White
  • Landon Knack
  • Gerardo Carrillo
  • Michael Grove
  • Zach McKinstry
  • Devin Mann
  • Edwin Uceta
  • Brett de Geus
  • Marshall Kasowski
  • Zach Reks
  • Luke Raley
  • Cody Thomas

Now, some of those players are long-shots and I certainly do not expect even half of them to make it. I just cannot predict which half. Every player on that list comes with an “IF” – For example, “Marshall Kasowski could make the team if he develops another pitch.” That’s a big IF and is very unlikely… but it could happen. So, don’t trade away the farm. Keep the kids and grow from within while signing a free agent or two at and making a key trade when needed.

Right about now, the Dodgers need to be locking up Seager, Buehler and Bellinger and keeping the core together. That is not easy because their agents see a big payday ahead and it takes two to tango. However, most players would like to be a part of something big and the Dodgers will be ready, willing, and able to defend their title in 2021, which is part of the reason Justin Turner will return (2 years $16 to $20 million) and share 3B with Edwin Rios who will be a surprise to many (not me).

Edwin Rios – 30 HR Man

Any player who has a career OPS of .972 in 123 AB’s and has 12 HR in that small sampling, has my attention. He is one of the hardest workers on the team and says that Clayton, JT, and Mookie taught him that! Yes, he strikes out 33% of the time, but he is a willing, hard-working guy who can get better. This is a guy, who can hit 30 HR with a .250 BA in 400 AB’s. while playing solid defense at 3B. Light-Tower Power is not something you learn. He will more than make up for the loss of Joc. This guy is now one of my favorite players. I love his work ethic and love of the game.

Mr. Light Tower

Summer of 69

This article has 21 Comments

  1. I like Rios. I like his attitude and work ethic. I hope he adapts and improves.

    Historically, he’s walked very little and struck out a lot.

    In 2019 in AAA, he struck out 34.5% of the time and walked only 8.3% of the time.
    In 2020 he walked only 4.8% of the time, although he improved his strike out percentage to 21.7%. His OBP was only .301.

    Remember, one of the first trades AF made was shipping off Dee Gordon, who was an All Star and fan favorite, for Kike and Austin Barnes and Andrew Heaney, who they flipped to the Angels for Howie. One of the reasons they decided to sell high on Dee was that he didn’t walk enough and get on base enough, had absolutely no power – and his D wasn’t particularly stellar. His flash, speed, batting average and stolen bases hid some flaws, so AF got a couple of years of solid production from Howie, and got two players who helped the Dodgers win the WS this year.

    It was unpopular trade; one that really started the whole obsessive Friedman hate from idiots; but it was ultimately very shrewd. In this sense, it was not unlike the extremely unpopular trades that shipped out Kemp for Grandal, and Puig for a reload of the farm. They were very successful trades, and thankfully the idiots have all drifted away.

    The point is, Rios is going to have to get better at pitch recognition and understanding the strike zone. His style is not the Dodgers style. The Dodgers won this year by grinding away at starting pitchers, through taking walks and waiting for the right pitch. Muncy gets heat, and there was criticism of him being in the leadoff spot during the playoffs, but he layed off pitches at critical moments and drew walks. It prolonged innings and got him on base. Not flashy, but in the end, it was effective.

    Right now, Rios is projected next year of having a wRC+ offensive value of 84. 100 is average. He’s projected to have slightly negative WAR. It’s only a projection, and they’re often wrong more times than they are right, but I’m not ready to name Rios as the future at 3rd base, nor Hoese.

    If Rios or Hoese don’t pan out, then what? JT is still a good player, but he is declining and is far off his peak years in 16 and 17 … and it isn’t going to get better.

    1. “ If Rios or Hoese don’t pan out, then what?”

      The most important word in that sentence is “then”. Right now we have two prospects lined up to replace JT at 3B. If neither of them work out ‘then’ it is on to Plan C. That is how AF works. Artie Moreno’s Angels go straight to Plan C.

    2. Yes, Dee Gordon didn’t walk much but when he hit it was generally a single. I think Rios will improve in his pitch recognition but will never be a prolific OB guy. Still, those 4 baggers are impressive. Think Joc with more power.

      1. Rios career (albeit limited) splits against RH & LH pitching: RH – .250/.330/.600/.930; LH – .304/.370.783/1.153.

      2. Joc has always had decent obp and gets walks. Power is wasted when there are fences meaning a 450 foot ball isn’t any better than a 415 foot ball.

      3. More power than Joc? I remember some of his epic bombs in Colorado in his first full season. He made a good run at the home run derby. Impressive, but means just the same as a guy walking, stealing second, taking third on a wild pitch and scoring on a sac fly.

  2. Actually that trade was Gordon, Rojas and Haren for Kike, Barnes, Heaney and Chris Hatcher. Rojas is the only one still with the Marlins. And it was not just Puig to the Reds, it was Kemp, Puig, Wood and Farmer for Grey and Downs and Homer Bailey who was immediately released and the Dodgers ate his 20 plus million dollar deal. So they did not reload the farm. They added two pieces and traded one of them away in the Mookie deal. I did not like the Gordon trade because I simply liked Dee and the excitement he brought to the game with his speed. I warmed to it later even though Hatcher was a total bust. Kike and Barnes have made contributions since they have been here. And Kendricks did a decent job his couple of years in blue. As for Kemp to the Padres, it worked out better for LA than it did the Pads. But I never liked Grandal. I still don’t. At least Matt had one final hurrah as a Dodger. He carried the team in the early part of 18 before fading at the end. But he did hit the first Dodger homer in the 18 series. He did not even look like himself last year in Colorado. I am not sure what kind of player Rios will become, but if hard work is any indication, he will improve. And his power is very impressive. I remember watching that shot he hit in Miami right after he came up in 19. Longest homer by a Dodger all year.

    1. Why did you have to remind us of Chris Hatcher?

      The point is not all the players who were involved. I suppose the point I’m making is not to become emotionally attached because of some skill they have that looks good. Dee was a popular player and was exciting, but AF traded him when his value was high because he perhaps recognized some underlying flaws in his game and wanted to fill a need. He got a guy who plays excellent defense and can play multiple positions. That was another issue with Dee. He could only play 2nd.

      Josiah Gray is maybe our top prospect. Downs we used to acquire the second best player in baseball. We used him rather than someone like Keibert Ruiz or Lux that we actually need. That’s what prospects are – fungible assets to develop or use to acquire additional value. So yes, unloading Puig helped the Dodgers reload their farm. Yes, I know. We had a soft spot for Puig. You don’t construct winning organizations that way. Grandal gave us 5 WAR years and saved a lot or runs with his framing even though you didn’t like him.

  3. The one guy you have to feel for a little bit after the Dodger win in the series is Rich Hill. It just seems like he should have been here for the win. 16 years in the bigs and no ring. Also Ross Stripling, who has been a huge part of what has happened over the last several years. He also had one of the more memorable debuts with his 7 plus inning of no hit ball against the Giants. Mike Piazza never got a ring either. And last but no least, Andre Ethier. I would have loved to see him get one.

    1. Gordon had some decent years. His defense “wasn’t stellar”? What does that mean? Out of this world? He won a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger and a batting title after he got out of LA. Also was able to score over 100 runs and get over 200 hits twice in Miami. I liked his play. Old school.

      I like Rios too. Dodgers don’t care about K’s, they care about OPS and easily projects over .800. They say he’s a hard worker so hopefully his d will be adequate and he hits a few light towers.

      1. “Wasn’t stellar” means his UZR/150 (that “science” and “math” stuff) in 2014 in his last year with the Dodgers was -1.1, which is below average. The year before that it wasn’t very good, either. I used that term because I think it factored into the team’s decision to trade him. What he did after he got to the Marlins doesn’t really matter.

        I don’t know if the Dodgers care about OPS because I’m not a fly on the wall in the Dodgers boiler room stat harvesting nerve center. I would suspect they look at other things. I would think wRC+, which is just the total runs that player creates by all of his actions on the field, would be even more important. Gordon’s wRC+ in 2014 was 102. 100 is league average.

        Rios was 145 in 2020, which is fantastic in spite of his low walk rate . Small sample size, though. His last full season at AAA was a 112. Make of it what you will.

  4. Always liked Kim Ng. Sooner or later she was going to be a GM.

    Read an article that said Kim was seriously considered by Frank McCourt for the GM post that finally went to Ned Colletti.

    Colletti did a good job in a difficult situation. I’m sure Ng would would have delivered similar results. I always felt bad for Dan Evans, who had Vlad Guerrero coming on board before McCourt nixed the deal, wanting to wait for the final approval by MLB, before proceeding to sign the talented Guerrero. Artie Moreno was smart enough to grab him.

    Considering McCourt’s highly financed purchase, it’s easy to see why he was feeling a little uneasy about inking the free agent prior. Oh well, would have loved seeing Guerrero in a Dodger uniform.

    But yes, Arte Moreno, who rode a wave of praise as new the new owner of the Angels by lowering beer prices, although his early teams were pretty successful, the recent teams have come up short — mostly because of a lack of pitching and trading away a lot of good prospects, who became major leaguers elsewhere.

    Arte also fired a very successful draft director and failed to build a solid farm system.
    His fingerprints are over the Angels recent failures to make the playoffs. But he did sign Mike Trout, give him credit for that.

    Looking at the Dodgers current roster, it’s clear the key to moving forward has been the development of pitching at the minor league level. The Angels have failed badly at that.

    Looking back at the Dee Gordon trade, I wasn’t exactly excited by it. Dee was an exciting young player who stole bases, lots of them. He had his best season the year after he trade. But I also thought acquiring Barnes was important since the Dodgers were thin in the catching ranks and Kike was certainly a very versatile player. They spun Heaney to the Angels for Kendrick so they did fill in at second. But they did miss Dan Haren.

  5. I have asked several die-hard Cubs fans about the Chapman trade. To a person, they were and still are okay with it. In their mind, Aroldis Chapman helped to bring them the WS championship. Would the Cubs have won the 2016 WS without Chapman? You cannot convince them they would have? One gentleman friend is now 80 years old and has been a lifelong Cubs fan. At least he got to see them win it once. While a two time AS, Gleyber Torres has not exactly looked like a future superstar as of yet. That needs to be tempered as he is only 23, and his peak years are still coming. He will be good, possibly a perennial AS. But will he be a middle infielder? His value centers around his bat. Certainly not his glove. The Cubs had good middle infielders at the time (AS Addison Russell and future AS Javy Baez), and still have one of the very best in Baez, and perhaps another solid middle infielder in 23 year old Nico Hoerner. Ian Happ was a 2B prospect at the time. He moved to CF.

    Now if you ask those same people about the Jose Quintana deal, they all agree that Theo reached waaaaaay too far for a second WS championship by trading future superstar Eloy Jimenez and future top of the rotation starter Dylan Cease for a middling Jose Quintana. I think Theo thought that it might be his last chance for awhile and wanted to make magic again.

    Now with a depleted farm system, very little front line pitching, upcoming 2022 FA Kris Bryant, Javy Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber. And 2023 FA Willson Contreras. Do they have a legit chance in 2021? Who gets extended? Who gets traded? The Cubs are in trouble. AF does not want to emulate the Cubs.

    Edwin Rios – What if he doesn’t cut it? Why should we be thinking that? No he does not walk a lot, and he does strike out a lot. But he also hits monstrous HRs (at an otherworldly one per 10.25 AB rate) and quite often at the most opportune times. His defense is getting better (much better). He has gone from strictly a DH candidate to a legit 3B replacement for JT. In his part-time role for the past two years, he is hitting .260/.338/.634/.972 in a small sample size of 139 PA. Patch and I differ because I do consider Edwin Rios as a future 3B.

    Kody Hoese – Patch is not ready to consider him as a future at 3B, and apparently neither does Keith Law. My question, how do you know? Who here saw him play at USC this past summer? Did Keith Law sneak in to watch him play to form his opinion? All I know is that those who did see him at USC and those who saw him at AZ all say he was very good offensively. His exit velo was excellent. Yes, those who saw him at USC were Dodgers personnel, but they made a point of specifically naming Kody Hoese for special recognition. Will he be Mike Schmidt? Scott Rolen? Nolan Arenado? Manny Machado? Probably not. But can he be JT, David Wright, Bill Mueller, Ron Cey, Pablo Sandoval, Evan Longoria…? He is still 23 and missed a full year of MiLB. At 29, JT was out of baseball when Tim Wallach saw him at Cal St. Fullerton and convinced the Dodgers to sign him to a MiLB contract with a ST invite. How did that work out? Why don’t we wait to see how Kody actually develops.

    1. I will most definitely consider Hoese as the future 3rd of 1rst baseman. Same with Rios. They just haven’t shown me anything yet that they will be. Doesn’t mean they won’t develop, just let’s not assume they’re going to all stars or they will pan out. Just because the Dodgers player development system is good – and it is good – doesn’t mean it’s a factory or that it’s automatic.

  6. My computer went haywire and I’m not certain if the problem has been remedied. So please excuse me for using this spot for a test. It’s not easy to try fixing this damn thing when I’ve always been so good at screwing it up.

  7. You have to let the player development process play out. Progress is not linear and is not predictable. But the only way to do it is to let it play out. Some players get it at 21. Some fail and get it later. Some never get it but you will never have a sustainable winning team without developing a substantial amount of your own players… and that only happens if you just do it!

    1. True, most of the time, some of the time, odds are against it…one of those.

      Dodgers hung onto Lee and were lucky to flip him for Taylor. Could have gotten more if they hadn’t waited. How many prospects with scouting grades 50 and below make an impact in the MLB?

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