… and he probably is, because he is the KING of saying that past performance is an indicator or future performance. Here’s the thing though, just because a player had a bad year “last” year doesn’t mean he’ll have another bad season. A better indicator (I believe) is to look at a player’s career average (for 162 games) and use that as an indicator of future performance.
Doing that, and assuming no surprises in spring training (i.e.,Tony Gwynn, Jr. winning the CF job, Ivan DeJesus, Jr. winning the 2B job or Trayvon Robinson or Xavier Paul winning a job), this will be your lineup (complete with 162 game averages for their careers):
- SS – Rafael Furcal – 32 doubles/8 triples/12 HR/59 RBI/34 SB/.286 BA/.351 OB%
- 1B – James Loney – 32 doubles/3 triples/14 HR/92 RBI/6 SB/.288 BA/.348 OB%
- CF – Matt Kemp – 28 doubles/6 triples/23 HR/86 RBI/27 SB/.285 BA/.336 OB%
- RF – Andre Ethier – 27 doubles/ 4 triples/22 HR/87 RBI/4 SB/.291 BA/.363 OB%
- 2B – Juan Uribe – 30 doubles/5 triples/19 HR/77 RBI/5 SB/.256 BA/.300 OB%
- 3B – Casey Blake - 34 doubles/2 triples/ 22 HR/80 RBI/5 SB/.264 BA/.336 OB%
- LF – Gibbons/Thames - 28 doubles/ 1 triple/28 HR/82 RBI/1 SB/ .254 BA/.312 OB%
- C- Navarro/Ellis/Barajas – 23 doubles/0 triples/10 HR/58 RBI/0 SB/.248 BA/.310 OB%
Assumptions: I divided Thames and Gibbons and what I posted was their average season. I did the same at Catcher with Ellis, Navarro and Barajas.
What? Why not Loney at #2? I mean, why not? You got a better idea?
Now, nobody has an “average” year – it’s usually better or worse, but you get the picture.
OK – have at it! What do you think?
Hey! Wanna see something really scary? I dis-like the guy, but I also feel sorry for him. Turn away if you must:
Hey, didn’t you used to be Al Davis?