Dope Fiend Moves??

Mark is often criticizing many of us who seem to propose what he believes to be dope fiend moves. Now granted, there are some very silly FA signings, and perhaps dope fiend is a proper description. But just because a change is recommended and one does not agree with it, does not automatically qualify the transaction as being dope fiend.

Per an Andy McCullough article in the Athletic, In December 2015, AF believed he had a 6 year $160MM deal tied down with Zack Greinke, only for the DBacks to go crazy with adding $46.5MM to make it a 6 year $206.5MM deal. I think that qualifies as a dope fiend FA signing. Whereas a Drew Pomeranz 4 year deal for $34MM may qualify as very curious and unnecessary, it certainly is not dope fiend.

I woke up Wednesday to the news that my beloved USC Trojans were going to stay with what they had in head coach Clay Helton. So while Mark may think some transactions are dope fiend, I believe that to do nothing is an even more apt descriptor for dope fiend. Yes, Clay Helton is a fine man. Parents love that he is guiding them at such a perilous age. But he is a horrible coach for USC. He exudes mediocrity and quality HS players are no longer interested in this once hallowed program. While I was at USC, Coach McKay often preached that winning the Pac 8 and going to the Rose Bowl were expected…not goals. Winning national championships were their goals. Now, winning the Pac XII South and getting to the Pac XII Championship is the goal. And yet, the President, AD, and Board of Trustees feel comfortable with the status quo and just being competitive and hoping the results turn out positively. Starting to sound a little too familiar???

How does the current state of affairs for my Trojans impact the upcoming LAD season? IMO, there is something wrong with the Dodgers. I am not smart enough to know what it is or how it can be fixed, but I do believe that to do nothing is absolutely the wrong dope fiend move. There is a missing component…bullpen?, second Ace?, RH bat?, maybe all three? DC’s article on Pee Wee Reese and his leadership, and re-watching Kirk Gibson’s 1988 Game 1 Walk Off HR (I can never get enough), reminds me that there is no real team leadership on the field. Quality players? Unquestionable!! But the guy who stands up and tells everyone to get on his back and he will carry them to the finish line is missing. Gibson only needed the one AB to be that guy. And the Bulldog wrapped it up.

Who is the Kirk Gibson? Who is the Orel Hershiser? So far, nobody on the current roster. Maybe someone steps up, or maybe it is time to go outside the organization and find that player/pitcher. IMO it is more of a risk to do nothing than it is to try and find that game changing difference maker. To do nothing because of fear that it is the wrong move is not one of leadership. No baseball fan disputes that relief pitching is a guess more than any other position. But even Ray Charles can see that doing nothing with the current Dodgers bullpen is a dope fiend move.

For 2019, Mark continued to advise that the bullpen at the end of the season would not be the same as it was in the beginning. He was right; however most of the changes were due to starting pitchers going to the pen rather than in bringing true relievers. Is there a reliever out there who could have made a difference? Perhaps, but we will never know because the team did not make the attempt to find that reliever. So I am okay with giving a chance to Dellin Betances, or Blake Treinen, or Kevin Gausman, or Brandon Morrow part 2. If they can make a trade for a Josh Hader, they have to honestly consider it. I would also like to see if Mark Prior can fine tune a flame throwing 6’5” RHRP, Tayron Guerrero. He hits 104. You cannot teach 104. But if they can also make a trade for relievers like Ken Giles, or Aaron Bummer, or Jose Leclerc, or Taylor Rogers (in my dreams), then they should pursue them as well. There are others out there that are better options than who the Dodgers currently have on their roster. It may cost a bit more, but wins usually do.

A second Ace could be solved with a FA signing of Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg. Zach Wheeler signed a Johnny Cueto like 5 year $118MM contract. At their best, Cueto is a better pitcher than Wheeler, but both contracts are out of line. Zach is no better than a #3. I do not consider Wheeler a co-Ace (a hard throwing #3 at best), so a nine figure contract for him seems out of touch considering the Dodgers current rotation and depth. Easy pass. Good for Philly.

The Dodgers did not win while Ryu was at his best, so how is he going to be a difference maker a year later and older?

Thus for me, the necessary improvement comes from signing Cole or Strasburg. What is that line in the sand contract mark? If Cole signs for less than $250MM, IMO it will be a fail if he is not signed by the Dodgers. If Strasburg signs for less than $210MM by someone other than LAD, that would also be a fail. Of course that all pre-supposes that Cole and Strasburg want to pitch in LA. Not necessarily true.

Offensively, it has been written ad nauseum that the Dodgers are too LH dominant. The OF is loaded in numbers, while Cody Bellinger is the only player whose name on the lineup sheet will be in pen. Alex Verdugo has the ability to play against all pitchers, and has the bat to ball skills to put up a good BA. But is his plate discipline good enough to push up those OBP numbers? Does he have enough pop to be a good bat as a corner OF? Is his defense sufficient to keep him in CF 150 games a year? Joc is a good LHH platoon corner OF, and unless AF can find an everyday RHH corner OF to replace Joc/AJ, or Joc/Kike’, or Joc/CT3, then the offense will be weakened. Unless Joc, Verdugo, or AJ are traded, it seems very unlikely that AF will sign or trade for an OF. There is no trade scenario for me that makes sense for one year of Mookie Betts.

From a FA position, 3B seems the most likely, with both Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rendon as possible considerations. Donaldson will cost less in both years and dollars, but is his power bat that preferable to move JT to 1B, and Muncy to 2B, and Gavin Lux to AAA? He is good defensively, but for how long? Rendon is a longer term solution, and has the overall ability to be a game changer. But his cost is going to reflect those skills. Is Rendon worth a $40MM AAV for five or six years?

Is Frankie Lindor a true option?

Some want AF to sign Rendon as their top priority. I am more than fine with Rendon at 3B for LA for the next 6 years. I would certainly welcome that. Some want AF to sign Cole or Strasburg as their top priority. IMO you do not pass on an Ace when you have the chance. Therefore, my preference is different than Watford’s…I would sign the Ace pitcher and look for the RH bat at the trade deadline to see how Lux performs at 2B through July. Who knows, maybe Verdugo is that missing spark. But if it appears likely that an Ace cannot be signed, I would not pass on Rendon. If the Dodgers did nothing but improve the bullpen and add Rendon, IMO it will be a successful winter. But I am greedy, and I want it all…an Ace, Rendon, and a bullpen upgrade.

AF has options to improve this team. Time will tell whether any FA signings or trades qualify as dope fiend. But my premise remains the same. The one true dope fiend move would be to stay status quo and do nothing except hope that the same players who could not bring home a championship before, can do so a year later. The team has the financial flexibility and the prospect collateral to go bold. Winter Meetings start in a few days, and maybe we will have a better picture of where the team may be headed after December 12. The Farmer trade was a true win for AF, but it did nothing to improve the 2019 roster except through attrition. To some that is enough. For me, it did not change the dynamics and bring in the game changer needed. The Dodgers have gone from 7th game WS, to 5th game WS, to losing in NLDS. They are going backwards. This year I hope some of the FA signings and/or trades will actually improve the 2020 roster. Even AF has said that the team needs to do something to shake things up. IMO, the true dope fiend move would be to do nothing.

GO BOLD!

This article has 71 Comments

  1. I am very conflicted over Lux and Will Smith. I “knew” that Verdugo, Buehler, Bellinger, Seager, and Kershaw were going to be very, very good as they rose through the minors. I do not have that same feeling with Lux and Smith.
    I know they are MLB players, but I do not see a high-ceiling for either, While I am not always right about prospects, I am pretty close. I always said Joc would be a 4th or 5th Outfielder at best. It turns out he is a very flawed but powerful hitter,

    I was very high on Russ Martin and he delivered for about 4 years and then lost it, but remained relevant. I liked Loney, Kemp, Ethier (not so much) and Billingsley but felt they were journeymen, although I loved them as Dodgers. I flat-out missed totally on Andy LaRoche. My eyes fooled me. However, right about now, my eyes are not convinced about Gavin Lux and Will Smith. AS long as they are Dodgers, I hope I am wrong.

    I would have trepidation, and maybe I would not do it, but I would consider trading Lux… in the right deal. I would not trade any of the other TOP 100 Prospects. I am all in on Cole and Rendon.

    1. I get it with Will Smith. His bat took a while to develop, but his makeup and receiving skills are off the chart. Catcher is a defense first, leadership position and that’s why Will Smith is almost can’t miss.

      As far as Lux goes, coming off a Minor League Player of the Year Award, I just can’t see how you’re forming your opinion about him. The athleticism is there and so are the stats, the pedigree, the work ethic, the attitude, the confidence. He’s a middle infielder with pop and speed and athletic enough to move to CF if needed.

      As far as Verdugo goes, man I really liked watching him this year. I love his arm and his bat to ball skills. I was surprised at how good a base-runner he his. He gets great jumps and runs great routes, like he’s been playing outfield his whole life. Those outfield jumps and routes can’t be taught IMO. You either have it, or don’t. But, he’s never gonna be fast and so far, he hasn’t shown he has the power of a corner outfielder. In fact, he doesn’t even have Lux’s power. The other knock he has from my perspective is that every season following him through the minors, he’s gone on tears hitting in the mid-high 300, but low and behold, he dips back down to earth by the end of the year.

      As far as tools go, Lux is so athletic, he looks like he can be an elite player. I just think the ceiling is higher for Lux, the floor is higher for Verdugo.

      A dope fiend move is doing anything necessary to get what you want / need. If you’ve ever been around any dope fiends, this is obvious. Therefore, doing nothing, by definition is NOT a dope fiend move. The D-Backs paying too much for Grienke is. I’m not sure Wheeler is a dope fiend move. Paying him through his age 34 season? Not crazy. 23.6M per year? Maybe a little overpay, but not crazy. Paying him for what you think he’ll be versus what he’s already done? With his elite velocity and spin, not crazy.

      A dope field move is also making rash decisions and then dealing with the consequences later. People talk about trading away Pollock and Kelly and eating money or including prospect capital to do so. Those would be dope fiend moves. Pollock’s sprint speed last year was halfway between Verdugo and Bellinger. His OPS was just under 900 for the ENTIRE second half. He was a good Center Fielder his whole career and all the sudden he sucks defensively? I don’t think so. Kelly has a 99 MPH sinker! You made him stop throwing high heat and a curve and changed him to a sinker slider and you’re gonna give up on him, and pay someone else to take him? I wouldn’t. Those are both dope fiend moves.

      Players have down years, and many players have problems adjusting to new teams. Hell, Harper got off to a slow start with the Phillies and ended up with a nice season.

      I read that Wheeler’s wife is part of the decision to go with the Phils and he left money on the table to do so. She likes the East Coast. Happy wife, happy life. Anyone that’s been married know this. Sometimes a player is just not going to sign with your favorite team. Donaldson signed a one year deal with the Braves last year partly because it was his favorite team growing up. Cole is a Newport Beach kid, and word is that he wants to come home. Stras is another So Cal kid. So…

      I’m glad the Dodgers are still swimming with the big free agent fish. I remember Colletti saying something to the effect that if you always stick to your number, you’ll never get the big fish. I hope AF realizes this. Maybe Kasten will do what he did with Colletti and A-Gone and tell him that he needs to get the deal done. All-Star game, Stadium Renovations, etc. I don’t think he’s gonna come out of this empty handed.

      1. You are taking the term dope fiend more literal than what was intended by me. I know where the term is derived from, but on this blog, my understanding was dope fiend was akin to crazy, stupid, moronic, nonsensical, pull your head out of your a** strategy. That is how I interpreted the term for this article. So there is no further misunderstanding, to me, to do nothing is more of a crazy, stupid, moronic, nonsensical, pull your head out of your a** strategy.than to pay boat anchor contracts for an Ace that does not come around very often, or for an elite offensive and defensive 3B.

        1. I agree that it is more stupid to do nothing, than to overpay for a generational type talent. No argument there.

  2. Nice article AC and I think this is the year AF indeed goes BIG! Three straight post season failures, ownership that has gone on record with an edict to get under the CBT, a rebuilt farm system, a lot of dollars invested in analytics, the building of a new front door to Dodger Stadium and the all star game at DS for the first time since 1980 means AF has to go BIG!

    One of trio (Rendon, Cole, Strasburg) must be a Dodger.

  3. I will keep saying it has to be Strasberg or Cole. We need that second ace. Rendon is nice but not a must do deal. I am going to disagree with Mark on Lux. I think he is a keeper. I would not trade Ruiz. If Smith falters, we need to have Ruiz as the back up. We have some good catchers in the system, but none ready to be major leaguers now. I think we need a right handed bat, but I have no idea who.

  4. I’d like to see the Dodgers use their pocketbook and not elite prospects to upgrade this team. I want to see Verdugo, Lux, Kaybear, Gosselin and May in Dodger blue. Using other pieces takes AF creativity (and that’s why he gets the big bucks). Let the farm bloom….

  5. People have commented that they don’t think Verdugo has the power to be a corner outfielder.
    If Bellinger with his power plays center and Verdugo plays right, could someone explain what the difference is as opposed to Verdugo in center and Belli in right? If they’re both in the lineup and your power hitter happens to be your center fielder, what’s the problem there?

    No way I trade Lux at this point at least until I see him play every day for a season. For a kid his age, he has tremendous poise, not to mention his physical attributes. I’ll be amazed if he isn’t an All Star in three or four years.

    Just a hunch, but I think we’re going to wind up with Strasburg. I don’t think AF will give Cole the number of years he wants but Strasburg will settle for a shorter contract and I don’t think SD wants still another very large contract on their books.

    Here’s another question. Who does the front office value more, Urias or May? I’m thinking it might be May and although we haven’t heard any noise about this, I’m thinking they might consider moving Urias in the right trade (meaning for something special), but only if they sign Stras or Cole.

    1. You make a good point that Verdugo in RF and Belli in CF would be a wash. The old adage is power on the corners and defense up the middle. If you can get power out of one of the 4 “Defense First” positions, then that’s icing on the cake.

      Under the current configuration Pollock in LF, Verdugo in RF and Belli in CF, you have 2 CF type hitters on the corners (without the speed in RF) and a corner type hitter in CF, with the speed of a center fielder. Not really optimal.

      Now, if you had traditional corners, Belli’s power will be a lot of icing on the cake. With Pollock’s nice for CF power and Verdugo’s less than Pollock’s power, you have a wash. Now, Joc would have nice corner power, but he can’t hit lefties – not optimal. Having Joc and Pollock in a platoon – again, not optimal. Not Optimal is the same as mismanaging your resources.

      Another point is, Belli is a very good CF with the speed and power profile and his arm. But, is he really a great Center Field Defender? Is he Willie Mays? Andrew Jones in his early years? Kenny Lofton? Marquis Grissom? I think DRS loved him because people were testing his arm. I expect the DRS numbers to regress as runners learn what they can get away with.

      Now back to Belli at 1B. This is his best position. If he stayed there, he might just be the best ever. He’s got the power bat for the position, unbelievable defense and speed uncommon to the position. He scoops and he’s a giant target. He makes the entire infield better with his ability catch balls that few others can get to.

      As far as Urias and May goes. I think Urias had much brighter prospect shine. His numbers as a minor leaguer were otherworldly. May’s minor league numbers are less impressive, but he throws nasty, moving gas. His command is not what Urias’ is, but his health is better. Urias’ makeup is off the charts. May’s looks close. The Dodgers have more years of control remaining on May. With that said, neither are going anywhere in a trade, because there isn’t any pitchers that are so much better, that they would be getting similar value in return.

  6. I think most of us are in agreement that Cole/Strasburg would be the choice over Rendon, IF we had to choose which player was more needed.

    Part of my wish for Cole (then Strasburg) over Rendon is that there aren’t as many top of the rotation guys that could be available in July, where there will be tons of hitters that could be available. Cole/Stras, Buehler, Kersh, Urias, May is a filthy rotation, and it really sets up for a filthy rotation for years to come (barring injury)

    To me, Gavin Lux has superstar potential. 2 years ago, I asked if Lux had a young Chase Utley type game. I still think that is Lux’ upside, and if he hits it, we have dynamite at 2b for the next 10 years. Don’t trade that unless you are getting an absolute stud in return.

  7. First of all, good job AC. Very interesting and I second your opinion on wanting Cole or Stras, Rendon and a bullpen upgrade. All three would make my day. To me, trading Lux would be a dope-fiend move. He has ROY, and future all-star written all over him.
    Someone asked for an explanation what the difference is as opposed to Verdugo in center and Bellinger in center. My answer is speed. Both have good arms but Bellinger’s speed allows him to get to balls better than Verdugo.

    1. I think the thought was that the offence would not know the difference if the power was in CF and not in RF as long as between the two positions there was power in one of them. Bellinger would still play CF and Verdugo would still play RF.

      1. Thanks Bums. You commented while I was writing my reply and managed to say in 2 lines what it took me 9 lines to say. From now on I’m passing my stuff to you for editing before publication. 🙂

        1. Thanks Blue, I always try to be brief and succeed every once in a while. I’ve only done a few power point presentations but those few really influenced how I try to write.

    2. I probably didn’t ask my question correctly. I understand why it would be preferable to play Belli in center because of his speed. My question related to those who claim Verdugo doesn’t have the power (hitting-wise) to play a corner outfield position. And I say, if you have a guy playing center who is one of the elite power hitters in the game, why can’t you have a guy with less power playing a corner outfield position. As far as I’m concerned Verdugo has the power to play a corner outfield position because you have Belli playing center. You want two of your three outfielders to have good power but what difference does it make which of the outfield positions they play?

      People want their first and third basemen to have power and don’t feel that to be as important with short and second but if you have Muncy playing second you can afford to have a third or first baseman with less power if they have other qualities they excel in.

      1. Logically correct. However another veiwpoint could be that the power positions do come from the corner defensive positions. That is one of the “requirements” of that position. If there is any power production from up the middle that would be considered icing. That is not to say that Alex Verdugo cannot be a good corner OFer even with limited power. If his bat to ball skills make up for lack of power, almost every baseball executive will accept 15-20 HRs from the corner OF as long as the power is coming from different sources.

        It is entirely plausible that Alex Verdugo will have less HRs than any LAD regular on the roster. He could also have the best BA, and we do know he is a terrific defensive OFer. So with Belli in CF, Verdugo’s value is not diminished in any way. However, because of his limited power, I would bet that his trade value would be diminished to other teams that do not have a Belli in CF.

  8. Love this website Mark. Thank you. Every morning at 5 AM, I’m drinking my coffee and reading about Dodger baseball.

    I’m a first time poster and with such eloquent and incredibly knowledgeable responders, I feel pretty intimidated but I’m going to spit out a couple of my thoughts anyway.

    I know Lux was only at the show for a month, but I feel if you can get a Lindor for Lux and a couple other pieces, you’ve got to do it. While I’m at the Cleveland mall, I’d also be shopping for a Kluber, Clevinger or Hand to go with my Lindor. I don’t have to tell any of you what you get in Lindor. My thought is what if Lux becomes a bust? To me, he looked good defensively but seemed vulnerable to the high strike. Can he hit to the opposite field? I don’t know. Did he hit near .300, NO. I don’t see a speedster that can steal you 35 bases either. It would be nice to have one of those at the top of your lineup. I’m not saying Lindor’s that guy. Maybe Jeter Downs in 2021. Maybe Downs and Lindor become the Dodgers DP combo for the next 7-8 years. The black factor plays in as well. We’ve all heard the rumblings in the past few days about 2019 being the first year since Jackie Robinson was a rookie that the Dodgers didn’t have any black players. I’m not saying the Dodgers need to get Lindor because he’s black. He’s a proven commodity. Lux is not. Lindor is a top 10 player and maybe a top 3 shortstop. Trade Lux now while he’s a hot commodity. After all, he’s just a prospect. Isn’t that what Allen Iverson said? We’ll, something like that.

    I know the Dodgers won 106 games this past year and have won their division for the past 7, but they haven’t won the whole thing and have had basically the same core for the past 3 years. It’s time for some changes.

    If I may be AF for the day, after I trade for Lindor and I’ll say Kluber, I’m signing Rendon and Ryu. I’d love to have Cole or Stausburg, but for that kind of money, give me an everyday player and we can slug it out with the competition. Plus Rendon balances out the lineup. Cole is a great pitcher but he’s not invincible. Didn’t he lose game 1 of the WS? If I could get Strausberg for 4/160 and have Rendon be the cherry on top, I’m all in. I don’t think that’s happening but I can see a Rendon and a Ryu signing.

    Next, I’d trade Joc and Seager and maybe a lower level minor leaguer or two for some bullpen pieces. I figured Maeda and one of Kiki/Taylor would be a couple of pieces in the Lindor/Kluber trade.

    Finally, I’m making Urias my closer.

    For 2020:

    SS Lindor (S)
    1B Turner (R)
    CF Bellinger (L)
    3B Rendon (R)
    2B Muncy (L)
    LF Pollock (R)
    RF Verdugo (L)
    C Smith (R)

    Buehler
    Ryu
    Kluber
    Kershaw
    May

    1. Lux is fast than Lindor. 28.0 Sprint Speed for Lux, 27.5 for Lindor. Of course there’s more than “Fast” that makes you a great base stealer.

      Nice first post, welcome! But, don’t trade away Seager! He was close to a 6 WAR player before he got hurt. I want to give him another year.

      AC recently listed the clutch comparison between Lindor and Seager. I’ll summarize that Seager came out on top.

  9. I don’t want to add a free agent third baseman because one of Lux, Seager, Muncy, and Turner would no longer have a position. I am impressed with how quick Lux’ hands are and want to watch him grow starting in 2020. Also, Seager may need to move to third sooner rather than later.

    Lindor is a team leader and captain type. So is Will Smith. A strong up the middle defense would have Smith, Lux, Lindor, Bellinger in it. That would move Seager to third and two competing for first in Turner and Muncy.

    If it is Turner that takes over first then the question might be who will take over for him in 2021? Hoese? Bellinger? FA? Trade? Probably would want a righty bat unless it’s Belli and Pollock plays the CF position he was signed to play.

    Turner at first would allow the Dodgers to include Muncy in a trade for Lindor. Replacing Muncy in the lineup with Lindor does not improve the offence but greatly improves the defense and adds a righty bat. It also increases the payroll. Lindor would be a free agent in 2022 at which time Lux might move to SS or the Dodgers re-sign Lindor. Or, maybe they extend Lindor immediately.

    If the Dodgers don’t sign Cole or Stras then a Lindor Kluber trade might be a good one.

  10. Thirty-one years, no World Championship, something is missing. Yes, I know, there were different owners, different situations, but it’s been seven now with this one. There is something missing. I was born in Los Angeles, and I have at times resented the “soft LA players” narrative usually coming from the East Coast fans. And MLB players come from various locales. But even so, there is something to that narrative. If you watch Rendon, you see a player who has confidence, concentration, a fearless attitude that maybe some of out players do not. Two years in a row, we’ve seen some of our players look awful at the plate in the playoffs, lunging at pitches a foot out of the strike zone. They are fine players, maybe even great ones, but they looked overmatched by top pitching. Remember, we benefit from playing in hitter friendly environments of Colorado and Arizona, and up until now there have not been many top pitchers in our league. It was quite depressing to watch some of our hitters look like they had no chance to get a big hit in a big game.

    So Rendon is a clear upgrade in that area. Maybe there are others. I strongly believe that we need a real “professional hitter” in our lineup. Freese was that, but of course he could not play much. I don’t see any reason to believe that any of our players, with the possible exception of Seager, is going to have a better year next year than they did this year. Maybe Verdugo will rise up if he can play a whole year, but we are not sure. I want to see us have a potent bat, hopefully righthanded, in the middle of the lineup, particularly since we have Smith who will likely hit .220 or so, Hernandez, who hits .245 at best, Pederson the same. That’s not enough to manufacture much in the way of rallies against the better teams. And how much of a season will we get from Turner now, who misses about two months every year?

    It seems obvious that we need another top starter. I was aghast at the potential (still may happen) rotation of Buehler (he’s great), Kershaw (not nearly what he was), Urias (has not proven anything notable as a starter yet and may be fragile) , Maeda (is not a very good starter, starts to get hit hard as a starter later in the season), May (may have great potential, or not; and even if so, is unlikely to be that great in his first few seasons), then maybe Stripling (has never shown consistent results as as starter, and Gonsolin (interesting potential, but certainly unproven). The Braves already have a better staff than that, some other NL teams might, too. Plus, someone is going to get Cole and someone is going to get Strasburg, if we do not.

    And I am convinced that we need a top closer in the bullpen, plus a proven set-up man, and we have neither. Maybe if we can get Cole/Strasburg and Rendon, we can afford to shuffle around some starters like Gonsolin to the pen, and make do with the bullpen, though we do need a closer, because Jansen is not it. The manager had so little confidence in him that he used him once with a 10-4 lead, and then did not put him in for the deciding game until we had already lost. We see that to win a championship, you usually need two top starters, and a strong closer. Right now, we have one top starter and no closer. It is not “dope fiend” moves to want to fix that. The fans of Los Angeles deserve a franchise which is dedicated to winning titles, and will go as all-out as possible to get them.

    P.S. AC, I do feel some empathy for you having to keep Helton at USC, but as a UCLA alumnus, imagine how I feel about our football program. At least you won 8 games this year, we won 4. We used to be a respected football program. At least USC fans demand titles, and they will get more. UCLA fans likely will not. We can only hope that the Dodgers respond to their fans, and do not see this ownership as primarily a money-making venture.

  11. You get Rendon/Donaldson and Cole/Strasburg and trade some of your young studs for bullpen “relief”.. It is time that we bring out the “dope” and go all in for the trophy. If not now, when?

  12. Well, I certainly hope that Verdugo becomes the player that everyone thinks they see. I don’t hear anyone talking about CT3 the way they talk about Verdugo, but their stats aren’t far off. If Verdugo can add power, can CT3 reduce strikeouts? Can CT3 bat leadoff and play CF? Belli’s sprint speed lead the team at 28.8 seconds. CT3 was second at 28.7, Verdugo 10th 27.3, Pollock 28.0.

  13. I hope I am wrong about Lux and Smith. I just have this nagging feeling…

    I remember when Joe Guzman was being touted as the next big thing… I never bought in.

    1. That dude was way over-hyped. He had 1 really good year in the minors, when he was in his second stint in High A and was later promoted to AA. He combined at just under 900 OPS. At AAA his best was < 820. You know he was listed at 6" 7"? He would make Belli look short.

  14. Dear Santa,
    It’s time to step on the gas. I have been hearing for two years now that 2020 is the year the Dodgers are waiting to spend some money. The Dodgers need one of the top two F.A. pitchers, a strong right handed bat and a back end relief pitcher. I have been good this year except for one speeding ticket and I would prefer Cole, Rendon and Hader. Now is that asking too much? Stuff them fellows in your bag and head out to Chavez Ravine. This is a large market town so start acting like one. P.S. I have cookies.

    1. Very witty Bill Russell (one of my all-time favorite NBA players) and I agree. I have cookies too but unfortunately they are mostly on my PC.

  15. We missed out on relievers last year in the offseason, there were many. We missed out at the trade deadline as well. You can say the same for a right handed bat. Now, we expired two pieces of our rotation. We picked up Doc after he completely botches the last 6 outs of the NLDS and the team he botched against won it all. I’ll ask a simple question…

    Is AF a failure if we don’t get one of the big three?

        1. So what if the Dodgers offer 6 years/$250 million and Arte comes in at 7 years $320 million?

          Arte is a hopeless dope fiend.

          AF is a dopeless hope fiend!

        2. IMO, going BOLD for Cole would be $250MM for 7 years. I have no idea what AF’s appetite for that level of a contract is, but I agree that Arte Moreno will not let that offer sit. I can see Moreno offering $276MM for 8 years. That is a $34.50MM AAV which would give Cole the most in raw $$$ to a pitcher, and the highest AAV (Greinke is $34.42MM without any discount for deferred payments). That would require an average of greater than a 4.0 WAR for all 8 years to make any sense. 7 years at $250MM is also at that level of average WAR but for 7 years. He has average 4.13 for his 7 years in MLB. He has averaged 6.70 for the two years in Houston. At what point does he start to regress? That is why AF wants to limit the # of years. HIgher AAV is sustainable for the first 3-5 years when you hit 30, but harder after that.

          I would not get into a p***ing constest with Moreno. I would go to my max and if Boras says no, move to the next. I do not know what the max contract Lerner would offer for either Strasburg or Rendon, but my guess is he is not nearly as volatile as Moreno. Like AF, Lerner has his max and if Boras says no, the Nats will move on as they did with Harper.

          Believing that AF will not go for 7 years (just my opinion), I can see AF going for 6 years from $228MM to $240MM for Cole, and 6 years to $180MM for Strasburg. Moreno will blow LAD out for Cole. I have no idea about Strasburg.

          1. I think that we have to outbid everyone for one of those two top pitchers. I have made the point before that if you are trying to buy art, and you let just one person outbid you every time, you will never get one coveted piece. There are more art buyers than there are MLB teams, but there are plenty of the latter, too. Dodgers got outbid for Greinke when he opted out. Outbid for Stanton, putting aside for the moment whether that was good. Outbid for Harper. I don’t know if we bid for Scherzer, some rumors say we did, but we weren’t close. Now we are not supposed to outbid everyone for all the players, but we have to for the few who are big difference makers. Otherwise, Angels get Cole, Yankees or someone get Strasburg, our staff is insufficient. Next year, lesser talents are FAs. I really wanted us to get Scherzer years ago, he never gets injured. We probably would have won three titles with him. Great franchises make bold moves when it is necessary to do so. What are we going to be?

  16. Like it or not, the Dodgers can add Cole and Rendon and Hand and not win.

    You have to get there first and Friedman has had them “THERE” But, the players did not deliver. At some point (right about now), the Players have to step up!

    Clayton needs to learn a change.

    Kenley needs to figure out how to pitch differently.

    Cody and Cory need to step up and put the team on their shoulders.

    It’s that simple!

    We need to place the blame where it belongs: On the players!

    1. All true, but sometimes you need that one impetus (Reggie Jackson/Kirk Gibson/Burt Hooten/Orel Hershiser/MadBum) to push these guys. Is that Rendon? Is it Cole/Strasburg? It is not Souza or Miley. I agree that going BOLD has its limits, but if I were AF, I would make my limit offer earlier rather than later and if not met, move on.

      If AF makes aggressive offers to FA and he is turned down, I cannot be critical. If Arte Moreno wants to continue to spend out of control, AF does not have join in.

    2. Mark, get your point – but why is Doc given a pass?

      Do you think the players will have confidence in him to push the right buttons next time, because I’m sure there must be some doubts?

      1. If I were Doc I would be more concerned what AF thought about my bullpen management. If the players question Doc, I would just turn it around on them and let them know that they were the ones who did not perform. None in the bullpen were reliable, so Doc may not have managed them properly (and he didn’t), but it was the players that failed. If KJ complains that he did not get called in Game 5 when it mattered, all anyone has to do is show KJ his game logs and blown saves and ask which KJ was going to come out. Doc thought that he had the correct reliever in 2017 WS Game 2, and KJ gave up the HR to Marwin Gonzalez. Maybe Doc pulled Dick Mountain too early in that game, but the relievers did their job until KJ gave up the HR. Then the wheels fell off, and Doc had to rely on Brandon McCarthy. It was not his fault that he did not have a quality reliever to fall back on.

        1. My response to this is. The players did perform. They got the lead. Kershaw was put into a situation that he does not normally do and failed. Same to be said about Kelly with multiple innings after not using him that way all year.

          The bullpen was not rested because they had to go with Hill in game 4 making it a bullpen game because Hill wasn’t stretched out, much less healthy. It was more mismanagement by management, than not performing by the players. If AF would have grabbed some help for the pen, they could have used Urias as a starter. It was stupid to use Hill after pitching a whopping 5 innings in September.

        2. I could not understand why McCarthy deserved to be one the playoff roster that year AC. And you also right about the the other things you mentioned. What to do now?

  17. So Arte goes wild on Cole. If we signed Strasburg and Rendon for 70 mil/yr for the bothand traded JOC, Kike, Maeda and Stripling for bullpen help where would we stand financially against the 208 cap?

    1. They would be over by about $7MM. There would still need to be some available for bullpen help and anything for trade deadline. But it is doable.

    2. Mark,

      Guessing you meant that Clayton needs learn a “changeup” NOT a “curve”. And yes, the players have to step up.

  18. Isn’t the biggest role the manager has is to handle the bullpen decisions?

    Didn’t the Dodgers get knocked out of the playoffs because the bullpen wasn’t handled right?

  19. Then just do it! Who doesn’t think we’d be huge WS favorites
    with those two and a little bullpen help! And then in two years a lot comes off the payroll with Kersh and Jansen in time to sign Seager, Belly. Urias and then Buehler. Come on AF bring us a championship or two!

  20. The Dodgers have reportedly agreed to terms with left-handed pitcher Casey Crosby. Crosby is 31 years old and has made it to the major leagues as recently as 2012. These days, Crosby is up to 96-98 miles per hour on his fastball with tremendous spin efficiency. Perhaps a reclamation project that we can dream on. However, I wouldn’t purchase the World Series tickets just yet.

    1. lol – Bargain bin again. But that fastball has some life. The change looks exactly the same as the fastball with over 10 MPH difference and the Curve is filthy. Can he throw strikes? He wasn’t putting it where the glove was.

  21. Are you guys forgetting that our primary catchers for most of last season were Martin and Barnes who combined had about a 650 OPS?

    Forgetting Seager didn’t hit lefties last season anywhere near he did earlier in his career?

    Forgetting Verdugo spent a lot of time on the IL?

    Forgetting Pollock didn’t hit right handed pitching worth a sh** last season?

    Forgetting Lux didn’t do much in the short time he was with the big team last season?

    I see a lot of upside in the offense coming this season with who we already have. I see the potential of 5 positions out of 8 positions with upside.

    Why the hell are we talking about Rendon or any other position player when we are losing Ryu and Hill in the starting rotation and when Doc didn’t trust the bullpen in game 5 that he used Kershaw who all year long struggled in the first inning he pitched and then used Joe wild man Kelley with the game on the line.

    1. BBEric, you are correct that the offense is still going to be very good. We’re bring back everyone except Martin and Freese from the offense. But, even with 106 wins, we still weren’t very good against lefties and it’s gonna be worse without Freese around.

      Ryu and Hill combined for 230 very good innings. Can that be replaced with Urias, May and Gonsolin? I think so, but now we’re back to a cross your fingers bullpen. We just picked up a Bargain Bin lefty when we should have signed Smith or Pomeranz. One lock down reliever does a lot for a bullpen, pushing everyone down a notch.

      1. Freese wasn’t used much, I blame Doc for that (some will argue he wasn’t healthy, OK whatever). I don’t think losing Freese is a big deal considering Doc didn’t use him much anyways. That is not a knock against Freese, that’s a knock on Doc.

        But again Seager had a down year against lefties and both Lux and Smith with small sample sizes didn’t do much against lefties. I’m not in the mood to look up minor league stats but Lux and Smith’s minor league stats against lefties could tell a lot.

        1. I went ahead and looked up Lux and Smith’s stats for 2019 in the minors vs left handed pitching. I’m sick but went ahead and looked it up. Correct me if I am wrong.

          Lux vs left handed pitching in 2019 in the minors OPS 840
          Smith vs left handed pitching in 2019 in the minors OPS 848

          There is upside at both positions. Plus upside at SS with Seager having a down year against lefties in 2019.

          Verdugo healthy all year is upside.

          Doc doing the right thing by platooning Pederson and Pollock in LF is upside.

        2. Lux’s splits in the minors in 2019 were just fine. A little better against righties but not at all bad against southpaws.

          Smith’s numbers in the minors last year were not good against lefties but the previous year they were much better against lefties than against righties.

          Long story short, I don’t think we have to be panicked over this.

  22. All other signings aside, let’s hope Crosby is this year’s CT3/JT/Muncy.

    He pitched in independent ball last year but in a pen session he really had some interesting numbers. Granted that this is just from the sidelines but this is how his numbers would stack up against MLB LHP:
    FB velo – 99th percentile
    FB vertical movement – 96th percentile
    CB vertical movement – 99th percentile

    Before we make our snide comments about AF going dumpster diving, just remember the three guys I mentioned above, although I’ll be the first to admit that this is much deeper into the dumpster. And as 59 alluded to, he doesn’t have the greatest control.

  23. Maybe it was yesterday’s post about team captains that made me want to add Lindor to the team. If Urias and May join Buehler to form a strong front end of the rotation next year then maybe what the Dodgers need is Kluber for two years and not Cole for 7 years.

    Adding Kluber instead of Cole would leave money to re-sign Seager and Lindor in two years. Maybe there is money to add Betts as a free agent in 2021.

    Lindor and Kluber for Muncy, Maeda, Taylor, Downs if Lindor and Seager can be extended and sub somebody else for Downs if there is doubt about re-signing/extending them. As you all know, I would extend Pederson and add Verdugo to that trade as needed.

    1. Yes Bum, we all know (and roll our eyes every time you mention it).
      I see moving to the Pacific Northwest hasn’t cleared your head of Joc-inch.

  24. Los Angeles Dodgers: 3-team trade ideas with White Sox for Joc Pederson…..

    Trade 1:
    Los Angeles Dodgers receive: Jeurys Familia, Kelvin Herrera, cash considerations
    Chicago White Sox receive: Joc Pederson
    New York Mets receive: Player to be named later
    This trade is a perfect example of the Los Angeles Dodgers being savvy with the salary cap and taking advantage of other teams in order to bolster what is probably the weakest area of the team, the bullpen, which still is not all that weak.

    The inclusion of the New York Mets in this trade adds Jeurys Familia to the mix and the Dodgers would get him for virtually no cost. The Mets are looking to get under the luxury tax threshold next season and are reportedly willing to package Familia and/or Jed Lowrie with a young asset to free up money.

    This trade allows the team to free up the money without giving away a young asset, thus why they are only getting a player to be named later in return.

    This deal all boils down to finances. Instead of sending mid-tier prospects and adding Pederson’s salary, the White Sox are essentially going to swap Kelvin Herrera‘s salary with Pederson and add Familia’s salary, which would be like adding Pederson’s anyways.

    Familia is owed $22 million over the next two years. The White Sox will pay all but $1 million of that salary this season (the Dodgers pay the remaining) and a third of his salary next season. That means they are on the books for $9 million in the luxury tax.

    The Dodgers, meanwhile, are not adding much salary at all. Joc Pederson is estimated to make $8.5 million in arbitration and Herrera is making exactly $8.5 million this season with a club option next season.

    So essentially the Dodgers would be getting two former elite arms with World Series experience that are both still young for one year of Pederson and one million extra in salary.

    This sounds far-fetched but it really isn’t. The White Sox are only adding $9 million to the books this year, which is half a million less than they would add if they traded prospects for Pederson and the Mets get away from the financial commitment without giving up other assets.

    If Herrera and Familia both returned to their old form then the Dodgers’ bullpen would be unhittable. If they were just half as good as they used to be in a new team then the Dodgers bullpen would be much better.

    https://lasportshub.com/2019/12/05/los-angeles-dodgers-rumors-white-sox-joc-pederson-team/

  25. Why give away so much of our young talent in trades when signing Rendon and Cole or Strasbourg gets it done. If we can’t win a WS with that team then it will never happen. And Eric we’re talking about Rendon because our offense has been horrible in the post season! Maybe he takes some of the pressure off Seager and Belly so they can finally produce.

  26. Jorge,

    Steve Cohen, the billionaire that I believe was one the bidders for the Dodgers, is reportedly in discussions to purchase the controlling interest in the Mets (he currently has a 20% stake in the team. If true, the Mets are likely
    to become a major spender. It’s not a done deal, and I do recall that Cohen was under investigation for stock trading violations (don’t recall the details). Also, I know lots of Met fans here in NY, and every one of them would love to see Familia gone. No way the Dodgers want him, except maybe on a minor league contract.

    1. Not to mention they’re both worse than everyone we already have including the guy we just non-tendered. So, there’s that. 😉

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