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What is Adrian Beltre Worth?

What is Adrian Beltre Worth?

I find it interesting to see what people’s perceptions are about different players.  I am an unabashed Adrian Beltre fan.  Always have been and I will go to may grave knowing that if Paul DePodesta hadn’t been such an non-communicative geek, that Adrian would still be a Dodger, but I digress (for the record, I think DePo is a great Assistant GM).  Obviously,  David Wright, Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman are the class of the Third-Basemen, among the players not linked to steroids, but Adrian Beltre is “right beneath them.”

If you look at their seasons based upon their career averages for 162 games, Adrian Beltre has to be in the TOP 6 or 7 third basemen is all of baseball.  Is Wright better offensively?  Yes, but not defensively.  Longoria may be the class of all third basemen.  MAY!  But Adrian Beltre is in the game.

Here’s the deal:  None of them are Free Agents.  Beltre is.  I believe a fair price for him is $75 million/5 years.  If Carl Crawford is worth $142 mil, Adrian Beltre is worth $75 mil.  Hands down!

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

28 Responses to “What is Adrian Beltre Worth?”

  1. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Now if you could just filter out the politics. Oops, I digress (One of Lawdog’s smiley faces would come in handy here).

    If there aren’t any better options for the Dodgers, then I think paying $75 million for 5 years might be a good move. Replacing Blake at 3B with Beltre, and then using Blake to pinch hit and fill-in elsewhere, would, in my opinion, be a difference maker for the Dodgers. Is the money available for such a deal? Maybe, maybe not. But if it transformed the Dodgers into a winner, I believe it could pay for itself before the end of the deal, which anyway, would be a point in time when Dodger TV was a reality, and money less of an issue.

    Again, I would not be looking for Beltre to repeat 2004 or last year. I would take a typical Seattle year of .265 and 25 HR. Those would be good numbers in LA and the NL West. And Beltre’s defense alone would keep lots of opposition runs off the board, not to mention all the rallies that could be stifled before they ever get started. A great two-out play at 3B could keep five runs off the board. Just watching Beltre start a 5-4-3 DP is worth the price of admission. With the emphasis on pitching, Beltre’s defense is all that more valuable.

    And although I would like to see another outfielder with speed and at least modest power added, the addition of Beltre might make it possible to live with an outfield of Ethier in left, Gwynn in center, and Kemp in right. Again, the emphasis being on pitching and defense. Throw-in better years from ELK, the added power and improved defense that Uribe brings to 2B, and it makes all the sense in the world. Adding Beltre’s offense might even make it possible to take a look at T-Rob in the outfield.

  2. lawdog says:

    Adding Beltre would give me something most of you probably have noticed that I haven’t had much of lately and that is HOPE. Hope for the team I used to expect to play in the world series every year… :mrgreen:

  3. Bill Russell says:

    There’s no hope without dope.

  4. Roger Dodger says:

    On Beltre’s abilities as a third baseman. Vin Scully has said on more than one occasion that in his opinion — Beltre makes the play on a bunt or swinging bunt better than anyone he has ever seen. Period.

  5. Dusto says:

    I can only imagine the backlash this will create. I happen to agree, except that the Dodgers simply can’t afford such a deal without getting rid of some of the dead weight on the team (Loney, Blake~ and Broxton~).

    On some level each of those players have the potential to live up to their contracts. But the three of them togethger could pay for Beltres deal. I think I would have non-tendered Loney or traded him with Broxton for a firstbaseman (who i dont know) and then signed Beltre. But thats beyond my pay grade.

  6. Badger says:

    “that the Dodgers simply can’t afford such a deal without getting rid of some of the dead weight on the team”

    Something on which we agree.

    Now, granted, I am old and weak in the head, but it is my opinion that much of the dead weight on this team is in deferred contracts, marginal Major League players and older guys that can’t carry the water. Blake at third is something on which most of us agree. Furcal is a huge question mark. Uribe, while a good guy and an upgrade on …. whoever it was that was going to be there… he isn’t a player that will do any more than he does every year. And it’s quite possible he does less in Chavez. Left field is still up in the air, the C position will be hitting 7th or 8th no matter who is there and who knows if Kemp’s head has cleared his ass yet. Loney? Will he ever live up to his potential? Maybe not in L.A.. Perhaps his home in Texas is where he needs to be shipped.

    With the uncertainty that surrounds the future of the Dodgers, it seems to me the direction they appear to be going is the wrong play. We are not going to win the championship next year so why pretend?

    This is a time when the Dodgers should circle the wagons and start stocking up on young talent. I think that is a move every fan would understand. I would love to hear McGoo come out with a humble and honest mea culpa and ask for some time to get this thing turned around – THE RIGHT WAY. As most of you know, I think the right way is for him to sell the team, but if he did step up and make some admissions many fans just might be willing to give him a second chance – similar to those players who were honest enough to admit to drug use. Those who didn’t are having a very rough go of it. Frankie is looking like a street hustler who has lost whatever mojo he had when he first started the con.

    This is the Dodgers we are talking about and as of last year they are looking like what they are – a once vivacious and energetic beauty who is now living on plastic surgeries and implants.

    We may need to just start over.

  7. Ely's Coming, Better Hide your Heart says:

    Adrian Beltre is worth whatever he eventually signs his next contract for. Whether he was overpaid or not will be determined when his contract is up and we look back and reflect on his statistics and success he and the team he was on accomplished.

    Aren’t most sports contracts negotiated on what you think the players value will be during the time of the signed contract? You use past performance as an indicator.. but it isn’t only the factor. What you expect out of this person in the future also has merit when negotiating…

    So while some think Beltre is worth 5 years, 75 million based on past performance, do you think we’ll think that way when the contract is done? I honestly have no idea.. I understand taking a chance because of the immediate gains he brings to the Dodgers if he continues to play as well as he did last season…. but I’m not so sure he’ll be as valuable at the end of the contract. He might be though

  8. Roger Dodger says:

    Mark, I received a message via Linkedln, but have no idea how to see it. I tried and got lost in their maze wanting me to upgrade.

    Have not received any images as of yet.

  9. chucky says:

    One – we can not afford 15mm per year (we can go as far as 7)
    two – if you take Beltre two contract years out and his two worst years he averages .266 with 21 home runs and 80 RBI’s. this is not worth 15mm per year.
    three – we need a thumper, if he is the only available WHAT CHOICE DO WE HAVE.

    What a tangled web we weave.

  10. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    “We are not going to win the championship next year so why pretend?”

    The Dodgers currently have a solid rotation, a potentially superior bullpen (especially if Broxton finds his way again), and some very good everyday players in Ethier, Kemp and Loney. Furcal could very easily have a good year, and so could Uribe. The catching isn’t great, but not horrible either, and could even surprise and be OK. Add Beltre to the mix, and perhaps another outfielder (in case anyone doesn’t know it, the off-season isn’t over yet), and this is a good team. Are they favorites to win or even get to the WS? No. Is it reasonably possible that they could? Absolutely yes.

    Is it so impossible to believe that Kershaw could step up this year and become a legitimate ace, and that Billingsley could also step it up a notch? It wouldn’t surprise me, and I don’t think it would be a huge surprise to anyone.

    A lot of things have to go well for the Dodgers to get to and win the WS. The first step would be to make it to the playoffs. Is that so far-fetched? Once in the playoffs, any team can make it to the Series and even win it all. It only takes getting hot at the right time. Isn’t that what the Giants did?

    I realize that miracles like the Giants don’t repeat themselves very often. But from my perspective, the Dodgers (especially with Beltre) should be one of favorites to win the West. If that’s the case, then making it to or winning the WS becomes much less the miracle that it was for the Giants.

    So while the Dodgers may not win a championship next year, I’m not going to pretend that they can’t. The odds are against them, but not by so much that it will take a Giant-type miracle.

    One more thought. It occurred to me that the Dodgers have a little extra cash to play around with this year. I believe Torre was paid about $4.5 million last year. I seriously doubt if Mattingly is anywhere near that number.

  11. Dodger Dude says:

    Dudes,

    The Dodgers are better at this time than the Giants were are the same juncture last year. It’s not nearly as bad as you Negative Nellies make it out to be.

    Peace.

  12. Bill Russell says:

    The water Doctor cracks me up. Good job Mark……

  13. Badger says:

    Hope springs eternal in the human breast, Odds are, we don’t win the West.

    No, seriously, early odds have the gints at 12-1 and the Rockies at 20-1. The Dodgers are 30-1. And, there are 14 teams that are listed above them.

    While it is true that the Dodgers have a decent starting staff, and there is some potential for a good season, the fact of the matter is – there are a lot of better teams in MLB.

    I just can’t live with my head in the clouds about this organization. Everything has to go right for this team to even make the play-offs. With McCourt’s karma looming large, I just don’t see it happening.

    Yeah, I know ray…. negative nellie. The blue glasses just don’t fit anymore.

  14. Mark Timmons says:

    Badger,

    I guess that settles it. The horses, teams, players, et al with the best odds always win it. Cancel the season. It’s over.

    Humm…. I wonder what the Giants and Rangers odds of making the series were last year?

  15. Badger says:

    I think they were both 20-1.

    I would bet another 500 push-ups but I know you won’t do them.

    So, you want to cancel the season? OK by me. I won’t miss it. I am frankly getting tired of reading about the embarrassment that IS the Los Angeles Dodger ownership. He sells, I am back in. Until then, I really don’t care.

    • Mark Timmons says:

      Embarassment? Whose reality is that?

      The Dodgers have a higher payroll than anyone in their division. They are in the TOP 25% in all of baseball in Free Agent Spending. They are in the top 30% in team payroll. They spend a larger percentage of revenue on payroll than the Yankees do.

      The Dodgers were just named the TOPPS ORGANIZATION OF THE YEAR (yeah, I know it was bogus, but it was never bogus last year or the year before or the year before that – it was only bogus because that’s not your and other writers’ reality).

      The minor league system had the 13th best record in baseball, but their Low A tem had the best record and a .647 winning percentage – the best in all of baseball. Believe the pundits if you want, but the Dodgers minor league system is not as bad as you think. For the record, they have the finest minor league organization and infrastructure of any team in baseball, which is a huge part of the reason they won the TOPPS award. Watch and learn!

      The divorce has been embarassing, but which one isn’t?

      The Dodgers are an embarassment? Your reality. Not actual reality!

      • Badger says:

        I know all that Mark. Nothing new there. And, I am not the least bit surprised you support McCourt. You have a lot invested in him. I don’t. I never have liked the guy, and now that I know as much about as I do, and obviously more than you do as you refuse to read the divorce reports, I don’t like him even more.

        Organization of the Year based on the success of a couple of A teams. Teams that have one or two players that will actually have any measurable success at the Major League level. It is my opinion that for a couple of years, this organization should build from within instead of sending the talent off in knee-jerk bad deals. You talk about their payroll as if it is a good thing. The payroll of this team should be 30% higher than it is. And, we should have a better talent evaluator at the GM position.

        Look, I could lecture you about how wrong you have been regarding so MANY things over the last decade, but you won’t allow it. I was right then, and I think I am right now. I said everything had to go the Dodgers way last year for them to even win the division. It did not and they did not. And really, not that surprising a finish for those who did not have their heads in the sand. With ownership in doubt, the Dodgers are living month to month. If 3.5M don’t show up again….. it could be another really bad year for them.

        Having said that, I am willing to say this – let’s just see how McGoo handles this divorce settlement, how he restructures his debt and who might come on board for financial support. The Dodgers should be a money making success machine. The O’Malley family did it right. Fox f’d it up, but hey, they are Fox. I wouldn’t expect anything less out of them. This guy McCourt was bad news from the beginning and it sure looks to me like this was a set-up from Butt Sellout.

        Watching this mess unfold has caused me, and others obviously, to take a step back. You can charge forward and put your money in McGoo’s pockets, as obviously being in the upper 2% you have more of it than I do. I will just sit and wait.

    • ray says:

      McCourt will be forced to sell….may take some time, but he will…MLB won’t allow this to go on too much longer, imo.
      To call a team that made the NLCS two years in a row an embarrassment is…..an embarrassment.
      This team, as it is built now, can win this NL West in 2011….if they sign Beltre….even better. Some may think the Giants are the favorite, but EVERYTHING went right for them in August and September….that doesn’t happen every year….no matter how good the pitching staff is. Frankly, the LAD staff is very good as assembled today. The pen is stronger. We just need good health and a few bounceback seasons from Kemp, Ethier, Furcal, etc.
      Oh, and a new first baseman. I predict that 2011 will be Loney’s last season in a LAD uniform….not far-fetched, I know. That is, unless he starts to hit for power.

      • Badger says:

        Let’s be clear… I said ownership was an embarrassment. I won’t back off that statement.

        Other than that, I think I can agree with your post. IF all goes well, we can compete in the NL West. I still don’t think this team is built to win a championship.

        Ethier, Loney and Kemp are the keys to this team. If those guys have bounceback years….. yeah, this team is capable of winning 90.

      • ray says:

        TrueBlueLA posted their top 5 negative surprises from 2010:

        2010 ended up being a year full of surprises both good and bad. Over the next two non story days we will ask you what you felt were the best of these. In honor of Tripon and Humma we will first take a look at the bad surprises.

        1. Manny getting traded for nothing. Basically Manny not finishing the year with the Dodgers even though he had a .915 OPS at the time we traded him.

        2. Broxton unraveling to the point that your stomach got queasy when he came in.

        3. Matt Kemp hitting .233/.299/.423 from July 16 till the end of the year in 281 plate appearances.

        4. James Loney hitting .211/.285./331 from July 16th till the end of the year. That would be 271 plate appearances of Mark Belanger, the worst hitting SS I can think of.

        5. Andre Ethier hitting .256/.348./.426 from July 16th till the end of the year after being a Triple Crown Candidate on May 14th with a line of .392 / .457 / .744.

        This puts the 2010 season in perspective, doesn’t it? Kemp, Loney and Ethier all did NOT hit after the ASB. Will that happen again? I don’t see it, especially with the new coaching staff in place. Now that is something we haven’t talked about much, or maybe I have missed it, since I have been so busy in my writing.
        The new coaching staff can only be a positive in 2011.

        • Badger says:

          While it’s true new coaching couldn’t hurt, I must ask the question…. is this group coachable? What I mean is, will this group get the whole “team” concept that worked so well for the gints last year. Maybe having a guy like Uribe on the squad will help get the message across.

          I have this feeling that all those guys we will be counting on will try to put together a stat heavy year so they can play their way outta here and write their ticket wherever they want. It could be that rather than a team, we have a group of individuals. I don’t know this to be a fact, but, looking at Kemp and Ethier…. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised. And I still think Loney belongs in the Lone Star state. He would fit well in Houston or with the Rangers.

  16. Jaydavis says:

    6 years 72 million

    • Badger says:

      Jay, even that contract, which is almost, but not quite, reasonable, would have to be back loaded. McScrewged is marking time until 2014. If he doesn’t have several things go his way in the coming months, the Dodgers are going to several million more in debt.

      “McCourt was turned down at least three times — by Citibank, by a Chinese investment group and by a Southern California infomercial king — in trying to secure additional financing last year, according to documents filed in the divorce case between him and his estranged wife, Jamie.

      In a deposition, Dodgers Chief Financial Officer Peter Wilhelm said Citibank declined even to engage in serious negotiations.

      “They did not feel that the Dodger organization had the capacity to take on more debt,” Wilhelm said

      Every dollar he makes is going to pay his debts,” said Raman Sain, a principal at Holthouse Carlin and Van Trigt, the largest accounting firm based in Southern California. The firm, with $59 million in annual revenue and 250 employees, analyzed tens of thousands of pages of documents filed in the divorce case for The Times.

      Sain calculated that the Dodgers had $29 million in free cash before debt service last year and said virtually all of it went toward interest payments, hampering the team’s ability to acquire players.”

      The Dodgers owner is in a difficult financial vice. It is going to be a few months before we know how this thing will shake out.

  17. Ken says:

    Interesting video. Wasn’t there a movie a few years ago about water filter guys? Matchstick Men?

    Badger – Nice forensic investigation. I hereby award you the prestiges FCPA award.

  18. Badger says:

    Thank you Ken. Does it come with a trophy or a scholarship?

  19. Dodger Dude says:

    Dudes,

    Get Real. The famed Yankee owner was banned from baseball, investigated by Congress and evaded taxes, yet he is beloved, yet Frankie is slammed because of the divorce and the microscope stuck up his rear? What a double-standard! You guys make me sick.

  20. Badger says:

    Dude….. then go throw up on yourself.

    He wasn’t banned from baseball you simpleton. He won 7 World Series and 11 pennants and will be elected into the Hall of Fame.

    We should be so lucky to have a guy like him own the team.

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