Categorized | Mark Timmons

And wisdom to know the difference.

And wisdom to know the difference.

OK,  I know that this is going to be just like the Jon Broxton thing (“I have an irrational hatred of Broxton because I can see in his eyes”), but I still have to say it:   The object of the Dodgers affection should be Adrian Beltre.  I can see it already:  “Timmons has an irrational love of Adrian Beltre.”

OK, I’ll admit that.

Now that’s out of the way, I have this to say:

  1. The Dodgers need a middle-of-the-order bat – Beltre fits that profile;
  2. The Dodgers need a 3B – Duuuuhhhhh;
  3. The Dodgers need a good defensive 3B – well Duuhhh;
  4. The Dodgers need a leader;
  5. The Dodgers could use some good PR and bringing Adrian Beltre back would be awesome.
  6. $75 Million/5 Years should do it.
  7. He’ll be 36 at the end of the deal.
  8. His best years may be ahead of him.

I’m sure most of you will disagree, but other than  Werth, there is really no other Free Agent Hitter I would rather have than Adrian Beltre, and if the Dodgers were to sign Werth, they would still have a hole at 3B.  I think a 3B makes more sense.  Adam Dunn – He can’t play 1B as good as Tommy Lasorda, and can’t play LF as good as Manny.  Plus, he strikes out too much – we have Kemp – we don’t need another K-Machine.  Carl Crawford – he’s not a middle-of-the-order hitter.  I doubt that he’d hit 10 HR in LA.  He’s a speedy top-of-the-order guy and the Dodgers need a big bat.  Adrian Beltre has a BIG BAT (and a good glove).

The Serenity Prayer applies here:

God, grant me the serenity

To accept the things I cannot change;

Courage to change the things I can;

And wisdom to know the difference.

Here’s the wisdom part that you need to accept:

  • Raffy is here for 2011 and is being paid a lot of greenbacks to be the Dodgers SS – Like it or not, you have to pencil him in at the #1 spot and pray that he can play 145 games.    If he does, he’ll put up excellent numbers.
  • Casey Blake isn’t going anywhere.  He might become a part-time player in 2011 (LF, RF, 1B, 3B, PH), but he’s not tradable, in my opinion.  Let’s hope that he (a) comes to spring training in great shape; and (b) benefits from playing less.  He could be part of a platoon in LF with someone like X-Paul.
  • Russell Martin will reach an agreement for a contract soon with the Dodgers or he will be non-tendered.  The same is true with Theriot.  They say they want to be Dodgers.  If they really want to be Dodgers, they will sign, but if it’s all about the money, they will go.  Both say they want to stay.  We will see.  I think one or both will walk.  If I were the Dodgers I would make them an offer and stick with it – take it or leave it!  Throw in some incentives.
  • James Loney probably isn’t worth much on the trade market.  The Dodgers HAVE to hope that he can become that .300 hitter who hits 18-25 HR next year.  We know he has the talent, but will he?  All we can do is hope.
  • The same with J-Brox.  The Dodgers are stuck with him.
  • Hiroki Kuroda is rumored to want to re-sign with the Dodgers for around $8 mil.  The Dodgers should do that in a heartbeat.  Then if they could get Padilla for the same deal as last year, the rotation would be set.  Padilla is due to pitch more innings and when healthy, he can be a solid #3.
  • You are not going to put together a perfect team.  Sometimes you just have to “catch lightning in a bottle.”
  • If the Dodgers could sign Beltre, Padilla and Kuroda, I would be satisfied… and so would a lot of season ticket holders.  Frank knows he has to sell tickets.  This is the way to do it Frank.

A lot of us don’t really like Ryan Theriot, but he’s a great defensive 2B and he did “flame-out” at the end of the season, but his career OB% is .348.  If he can just put up his “average” year, he’d be a credible #2 hitter.  De Jesus may be ready, but I think he’d benefit by spending a year on the bench in LA as a utility man at 3B, SS and 2B.

  1. Furcal  SS
  2. Theriot  2B
  3. Ethier  RF
  4. Beltre  3B
  5. Loney  1B
  6. Kemp  CF
  7. Blake/Paul  LF
  8. Martin/Ellis/Barajas  C

If the above lineup and stay healthy and realizes their potential, they could go a long way with this rotation:  Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda, Lilly, Padilla.  The fickle bullpen has the arms to return to form.

Hope springs eternal!

DODGER NOTES:

The LA Times has some interesting notes regarding the Dodgers, including the info that Mattingly wanted Larry Bowa to be his bench coach and Ned said NO!

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

22 Responses to “And wisdom to know the difference.”

  1. Badger says:

    Good post Mark.

    Doesn’t make much sense financially but, you put some thought into it and it was a good read.

    $15 million a year for a .791 OPS? That’s a lot of coin for his numbers. Of course, if every year he would play as if it were a contract year, then…. maybe.

    I have to ask… where Frankie gonna get the money?

    Martin and Theriot want to stay. So does Kuroda. OK, sign them, and give them all what they are worth – or let them walk. And, I was right about the exchange rate…. Kuroda wants $12 million. Good luck.

    Agree about Furcal, Loney and Blake. Pencil them all in and hope like heck they rebound.

    but… I have to ask………

    Why can’t we just admit this organization is on spin cycle and sit out a year? We have 40 men on the roster, right? If not, fill it up this off season and just tee it up come Spring with whoever is there. I think it’s time to admit a few things about our team and the sooner we do that the sooner we can get some sleep at night. It isn’t giving up, it’s accepting what is.

    I have no problem with punting. When it’s fourth and long, and you are inside your own 20 – you punt.

    McCourt and Ned aren’t fooling me. There have been some bad decisions made the last few years, several things have not gone their way, the McCourts have been exposed for who they really are and I believe even the players know it. We have Mattingly and a good coaching staff in place – teach the children well and send them out to play.

  2. Roger Dodger says:

    Badger is right. The roster come Spring Training will be most of what the Dodgers have now, a few old guys added, some injured hopeful comebacks in the wings.

    Maybe a B or C class player who might have a nice year could be added.

    But until that TV contract comes in or a new owner — I still say the elite teams in baseball will get the key players (wanting money), not the Dodgers.

    Mark, your lineup here is ok. But three weak spots plus the pitcher, that makes four.

    Oh, last night on the MLB channel, they projected a trade of Beltran for Broxton, I think straight up.

  3. Badger says:

    How much of the Beltran contract does Gnu Yourk pick up Roger? He is owed $18.5M, Broxton $7 so, that’s $11.5 for a 34 year old guy that has been injured the last two years….

    I still hang on to Broxton. Unless of course, we KNOW he is FUBAR (with the R in this case being Repair)

  4. Roger Dodger says:

    They did not talk about $$$. Only a Met center-fielder that had played very few games for the past 2 years in NY and a closer that can make a big comeback in NY.

  5. Ken says:

    Broxton plus 2 minor leaguers for Beltran, $5 million, and a paid up insurance policy on Beltran.

    X-Paul – His coach got fired because X-Paul’s defense is so bad.

    Agree regarding Martin $1M and Theriot $2M – They are role players. MLB needs to get away from linear increases in pay for linear increases in ability. Get back to exponential increases in pay for linear increases in ability thus reducing pay for role players. No reliever, roll player or platooned player should make more than $5 mil.

    Everyone needs to let Loney hit .325 with 10 HRs and 100RBIs.

    Blake just needs rest and a shorter timing hitch.

    In order to catch lightning in a bottle you must have a manager who can ignite the wind. Torre only passed gas.

    The Dodgers are just negotiating leverage for Beltre’s next contract in the AL.

    Raffy needs to rest and play no more than 5 games a week.

    Casey Stengel – Get some really good players, platoon some has beens and role players, get good starting pitching and a very good bull pen, and a great catcher. Also sounds like the 2010 Giants.

  6. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I know a lot of Met fans that would be willing to trade Beltran for a bag of balls. That deal makes no sense unless it involves the Mets handing over a lot more. It it happens, it won’t be Mark that’s irrational, it will be Ned.

    I disagree that Crawford would only hit 10 HR or less with the Dodgers. I think 15 – 20 is the likely number. I also think Beltre’s power value is over-stated. He hasn’t hit more than 28 since leaving the Dodgers (and that was in Boston–expect less in the NL West), and his career OPS is only 10 points higher than Crawford’s (.791 to .781). Also, Crawford’s speed plays extremely well in the NL West, given all the spacious ballparks. Beltre is great defensively at 3B, but so is Crawford in LF, where he would be cutting off lots of balls hit into the gaps and down the lines. And something also tells me that he would be a very positive influence on Matt Kemp. But like Mark (smile), that might be my irrationality speaking. And I also haven’t looked Crawford in the eye yet (smile again).

    As long as its taken, I’m not so sure that Barajas is returning. But he might. Between him, Olivo, Torrealba, etc., it’s probably six of one, half a dozen of the other. And who knows about Russell Martin? Hopefully the Dodgers have enough info. to make a “rational” decision there. Theriot is OK defensively, but he’s not “a great defensive 2B”. He’s been a good player during his career, but I’d rather take a chance that De Jesus could be as good or better. And although I think he could benefit from a year on the Dodger bench, I’m not sure he fits there if we carry 12 pitchers and only 5 bench players. De Jon Watson also said that they want to keep De Jesus moving, and I don’t think that’s too easy to accomplish while he’s sitting on the bench. And the bottom line is that De Jesus costs less, and might not be less of a player.

  7. Badger says:

    It’s my opinion that bench players should be older guys that have been around and know how to stay ready. Young guys need to play. Again, just my opinion.

    What’s all this Crawford talk Brooklyn? You don’t believe he is coming here do you? What do you know that I don’t? And I agree about Beltran – I would think the Mets would give him away and pay most of the contract. The last two years he has been an enormous disappointment. If he could stay healthy, it would be a good deal for both teams, but, can he?

    Olivo/Barajas/Torrealba – same guy isn’t it? I’ll take any of them.

    Theriot would be fine if he was surrounded by guys who hit better than he does. If not, and he tries to be “the guy” he will do exactly what he did for us last year – not much with a .600 OPS.

    Good post Ken.

    “In order to catch lightning in a bottle you must have a manager who can ignite the wind. Torre only passed gas.”

    That is classic. Wish I had said it.

  8. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Badger,

    I’m not suggesting that Crawford is coming to LA (i.e., at least the Dodgers). I was simply responding to Mark’s comments about Crawford vs. Beltre. Even in an earlier post when I mentioned how much I would like to have Crawford, I also indicated that I thought it very unlikely to happen. But if by some miracle the stars lined up to allow us to get either Beltre or Crawford, I would choose Crawford.

  9. Badger says:

    Me too.

  10. Mark Timmons says:

    I also like Crawford, but when you look at his extra base hits, he a little deficient, especially considering that he turns singles into doubles. He plays indoors which helps with HR, and most of his Homers are to RF where Dodger Stadium’s fence is deeper, both at the foul pole and the power alleys. Factor in the heavy night air and I can’t see Crawford even reaching double figures in HR if he went to LA. For that reason, I don’t think Ned will even kick the tires.

  11. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    If he doesn’t kick the tires on Crawford, you can rest assured that he won’t be kicking the tires on Beltre, or for that matter, Werth.

  12. Bobby says:

    Crawford hit 19 hr. i doubt his hr drop in half. but if they do, he’ll match the production of our 1b :)

    in all seriousness though, there are pro’s and cons to both beltre and crawford. crawford is consistent, and would be a great #2 hitter for us in front of kemp/ethier. beltre would bat 4th, between ethier kemp.

    beltre has had 2 good years, and many solid yrs. a .270 avg and 25 hr doesn’t warrant a 5 yr, 75mil deal, but that is the kind of year beltre is likely to have (not a 48hr year, and a 49 double/28hr year like last year). he shows up every few yrs with some sick years. his D is gold glove caliber. he’s not a superstar, and i dont know 1 person who’s gona run and buy season tix cuz we got adrian beltre back. this isn’t shaq coming back to the lakers. beltre left us, and most fans were pissed at him for taking off after 1 good year.

    crawford is consistently good. his LF defense will help us. crawford will play in a big petco park, att park, coors field, and the dbacks park (whatever it’s called now). u need guys that can play defense out there. with our good pitching staff, we need a good defense. he is a real leader, and will lead our youngsters; they need a vet leader. furcal and crawford (and then gordon and crawford) will give us an electric top of the order for years to come. he may not hit 19 hr again, but maybe he will. i don’t know where all 19 of his hr went last year. i dont know how far they went. but he wont drop in half!!!!!

    that being said, it’s MUCH harder finding an upper echelon 3b than it is an upper echolon LF. we have options for LF (gibbons, t-rob, sands, x paul). we have ZERO options at 3b for the next few years, unless pedro baez figures it out or ethan martin realizes he can’t pitch and should go back to 3b. barring trades for longoria or david wright, beltre is the only young enough 3b that would stabalize our infield for the next 5 yrs.

    all that being said, i think carl crawford is the better player, but adrian beltre is the more unique player (3b) and might help us more. plus beltre will be cheaper by a couple mil a year.

    i have man crush on crawford, and i haven’t forgiven beltre for leaving LA, but i’d be happy with either. i’d love both. in fact, if we get both, many of you will be drinking beers on me!

  13. Mark Timmons says:

    I think if you are acquiring a free agent, that OPS is a key thing, especially for a team like the Dodger who didn’t show much power last year. Crawford OPS’ed .851 last year which was his best EVER! His career OPS is lower than Beltre’s and as Bobby mentioned, the Dodgers have LF options. They have few options at 3B.

    It doesn’t compute that a speedster in a dome on Astroturf who OPS’s .781 would do better in a bigger outdoor grass stadium where the air is heavier.

    Crawford might be great in Anahiem, but not Chavez Ravine.

  14. Bobby says:

    in all fairness mark, beltre’s career ops is .791, and crawford’s is .781.

    thats probably not even a noticeable difference :)

    again, i’d take either. and i think ur undervaluing crawford’s skills. it’s not like he hits high fly balls that land 2 rows deep for a hr, which means they’d be warning track outs here. dude hits line drives! if some don’t go out, it’s still a double or triple and guys are coming up with men on base.

  15. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Take away Beltre’s ridiculous 2004 when he had an OPS of 1.017, and Crawford’s lifetime OPS is probably higher than his. And it’s not very likely that Beltre will ever repeat or come to close to 2004. And if Dodger Stadium and the cool LA night air will cut Crawford’s HR production, it will do the same for Beltre, who hit his 28 last year while playing in Fenway. Did he hit any fly balls over the Green Monster that would have been routine fly balls in Dodger Stadium?

    And no doubt that Crawford’s HR numbers might be adversely affected in places like Petco and AT&T Parks. But the same is true for Beltre. But where Crawford’s value is increased is in the fact that his speed will play especially well in the more spacious NL West ballparks, both on offense and defense. Long singles will turn into doubles, and doubles will become triples. And how many balls will he cut off in the gaps and corners of those same very spacious ballparks?

    And then there’s the disruptive effect of his speed on opposition pitchers and defenses. Put him back to back with a revived Matt Kemp and Rafael Furcal (and Dee Gordon in 2012), and you have a forumula for major mayhem.

  16. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Oh, and chance are that all of the above is a waste of time. I doubt if either Beltre or Crawford are headed to Dodger Stadium.

  17. Mark Timmons says:

    Carl Crawford hits more triples than Adrian Beltre, but Beltre hits a lot more doubles and HR

    Beltre averages 52 doubles AND HR a year, while Crawford averages only 35 doubles and HR – even if you add in his triples he has a lot fewer extra base hits each year. THIS team needs power more than speed.

    And here’s the rest of the story:

    Crawford will be 30 and isn’t a small guy. He’s 6′ 2″ and 215. Beltre is 5′ 11″ and 220. In his 20′s Crawford’s game was speed. He’s not a Juan Pierre or Scott Podsednik type with a svelte body. What are the odds he loses some speed in his 30′s and becomes a punch and judy hitter? How many players with that type of body can maintain that kind of base stealing prowess?

  18. Badger says:

    Not that it really matters in this discussion, but Crawford OPS’d over .800 in 5 of the last 6 years. Beltre only twice.

    I think Crawford’s speed would help this team more than Beltre and his inconsistencies. He could come to this park and do another .683 like he did his last year in Seattle.

  19. Roger Dodger says:

    Nice discussion above.

    Bobby said: “options for LF (gibbons, t-rob, sands, x paul).”

    In my opinion those are not options for either a starter in LF or a combination out there of them.

    That is being cheap, giving up, not the Dodger championship move. One is a guy trying to stay in the majors with a job, two is a minor league player, and three (x) is not a good fielder and still learning how to hit major league pitching. Those three are hitting #7 or #8 in the line-up.

    Getting players that put people in the seats is also a concern as hinted above. Manny brought in money at home and away games. Season ticket sales, and jerseys all brought in mucho extra cash. Gee, a fully loaded Manny jersey is about $299. A gibbons, rob, sands, x paul t-shirt is about $22. And they just ran out of XL.

  20. Roger Dodger says:

    Getting with Crawford or Beltre will help this team. Either one.

  21. T says:

    I was a big Beltre fan during his years in LA. I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing him back but I don’t think we’ll spend the money on a 3B. If we do sign a big FA then it’d probably be an OF’er since we have a big hole in LF

  22. Badger says:

    We already have a third baseman and he is costing the team $5.25M. What would we do with him?

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