Categorized | Mark Timmons

Here’s Some Good News

Here’s Some Good News

Ned Colletti has said that the Dodgers payroll will be up in 2011.  Cot’s Contracts has the Dodgers payroll at $102,000,000 in 2110, so we are safe in assuming that it will be higher than

The Dodger Have More of These To Spend

that.  Now, some of you will argue that some other source has the payroll at a lower number (and you really like that lower number, don’t you – so you can ridicule McCourt?), but I have always relied on Cot’s as the yardstick and will continue to do so.  In looking at 2011, the Dodgers Payroll obligation is currently at $61.8 million.  Contrast that with the Angels Payroll obligation of $93.6 mil.  The Giants are at $76.9 mil and the Phillies are at $143.7 mil, which is almost the same as the Yankees $144.6 mil.

The Dodgers have some arbitration issues to deal with and some players will get raises and some may get new deals (which can be back-loaded)… and some will get non-tendered.  I think that the Dodgers payroll will be in the $110 mil area in 2011, which means that they can sign at least two IMPACT free agents.  Let’s hope they get the right ones.  I would try and upgrade at 1B and 3B with power hitters (Beltre and Dunn) and add another Top-of-the-Rotation Starter (Greinke) , because I think there’s a good chance that Trayvon Robinson (T-Rob) can be the Dodgers CF next year and the IDJ2 can be the 2B.  At some point you have to trust that you have players who can step in.  You can’t fill every hole with a free agent.

I think an outfield of Ethier in LF, Robinson in CF and Kemp in RF would be stronger defensively and T-Rob could easily be a top-of-the-order hitter.  Of course, I am not against Carl Crawford or Jason Werth.  Maybe the Dodgers sign both and send Ethier to 1B.  There are lots of possibilities.  Some on this board have said that no top free agent will one to come to the Dodgers.

We shall see…

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

32 Responses to “Here’s Some Good News”

  1. Badger says:

    Let’s be clear on something Mark, I don’t ridicule McCourt because of a low payroll number. I ridicule him because he is a dirt bag.

    $110 million? Well I hope you are right about that. I just don’t currently see where he gets that kind of money. But I don’t know how the season ticket sales are progressing and I don’t know about the behind closed doors money deals that are going on. For him to raise payroll to that, after paying off his lawyers and paying off an ex-wife, and paying the deferred contracts, he has to borrow money, again, from somewhere. This guy is all about extending debt into the future. Some day all of that debt has to be paid.

    I could easily see a lineup that had Barajas, Robinson and DeJesus in it. Add Blake to that, and there are a lot of outs in those 4 hitters. And, we still don’t have the back of the rotation figured out.

    I remain in my “wait and see” mode.

  2. Bobby says:

    does that $110mil include the deferred payments?

    That is bout 25mil or so tht we need to figure out!!!

    otherwise, im fine with the lineup ur talking about

  3. Jaydavis says:

    I hate the f—ing Dodgers! I’m living in SF and this sucks. I can’t stand the fact the Giants did what the Dodgers could not.
    I’m praying Lee pitches 3 games and shuts the Giants down.
    The Giants win the pennant The Giants win the pennant
    THIS SUCKS

  4. Mark Timmons says:

    That does include the deferred payments.

  5. Mark Timmons says:

    I will be in SF over the Thanksgiving Holidays. I sure hope the Giants don’t win it because my wife’s family will be unsufferable!

  6. coloblue says:

    Mark good thoughts..Love the Dunn or Beltre idea..either one gives us some needed punch…
    If we get one of those guys then we ought to get another top SP if possible . Pitching wins championships…..

  7. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    One thing is for sure, “there are lots of possibilities.”

    Believe it or not, I actually thought about the possibility of signing both Werth and Crawford with Ethier moving to 1B. Nice to think about. Realistic? Probably not, unless there’s enough coming off the books to cover it. I haven’t done the calculations, so I haven’t a clue.

    I also like signing either Werth or Crawford, and then see whether or not Trayvon Robinson would have a role, and whether or not Ethier would move to first.

    Ethier moving to first really depends on what is done with Loney, and what he could bring back, either by himself or as part of a package.

    Beltre would be nice, but that depends on the details of any deal he signs. I like Dunn’s power and patience at the plate, but would prefer more athleticism and speed in the lineup. And if Trayvon Robinson were in the lineup, would we also want IDJ2 starting at 2B. Starting two rookies could work, but can also be problematical.

    In short, the possibilities are endless. So like Badger (and probably lots of others) I’ll just “wait and see”.

    Regarding whether or not players would sign with the Dodgers, I don’t think that’s a problem as long as the $$ are right. Also, once someone breaks the ice and signs, it could make the Dodgers a more attractive destination to other players.

  8. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I left out additional pitching above. Just add that to the list of endless possibilities.

  9. lawdog says:

    Actually, I wouldn’t be surprised if McGoo did throw some money at some FAs to rebuild the team. He has to do something to repair his fallen image. I doubt he’ll have the wherewithall to afford it unless contracts are backloaded even more than they are already. He won’t change his lifestyle to make the team better and he is a dirtbag no matter what he does now. But even dirtbags sometimes do positive things when it’s in their best interest to do so.

    I think he should target Dunn to play left filed. Sure he strikes out a lot, but he has a high OBP and he is a cinch to hit 40+ hrs with the Dogs. Hitting between Ethier and Kemp he might even hit 50 round trippers.

    Dunn wanted to come here last time he was an FA so I think it’s doable. His strike outs make him less than a top “elite” player. Sort of a Frank Howard type.

    Forget about Werth. He wouldn’t sign here unless it was a ridiculous offer after the shameful way he was treated here in the past.

    But if we add Dunn, we still need a real 3rd baseman, a solid starter and maybe a catcher and second baseman. Hopefully we can fill some of those holes (like catcher and second base) from within, but our farm system has pretty much been plowed under by all the giveaways from the past.

  10. lawdog says:

    Anybody else notice that Werth looked like a wraith out there during the season? The dude must have lost 50-75 pounds since he played for the Dogs back in ancient times. Mewonders if he’s been snorting the old crank?

  11. lawdog says:

    I reslly don’t think Loney is the problem and still expect him to break out one of these days. The problem is at 3rd base and Left Field. Those are the positions we should be looking to fill with quality power hitters who can field their position.

    We probably can get by with the old Met’s catcher in a platoon with Ellis and groom Ellis for the job in 2012. But Blake is toast and I think Furcal is close to being done as well. I suppose we could get by with what we have at second, or bring up one of the kids to play the position.

    We still need to spend the bucks on a quality starter no matter what we do about LF and 3B..

  12. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I agree that Loney is not the problem, and I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised if he suddenly broke out in the near future. However, like with any player, I would move him if the right deal presented itself, provided I was confident that the Dodgers had a suitable replacement. If Ethier could be replaced in the outfield, and demonstrated that he was capable of playing first base, I would not be hesitant to trade Loney. First base defense would be adversely affected, but the outfield defense would likely be enhanced.

    Assuming the above also addressed the outfield problem, that leaves 3B. And I agree that a good fielding power hitter is what we need. Assuming that we addressed the power needs at the corners and in the outfield, then going in-house at 2B with someone like IDJ2 would have a good chance of success, since the youngster would be more than protected in the lineup. Same would be true of the catching position, where for the time being Ellis and Barajas could prove to be solid complementary pieces.

    Hopefully we can get a good year out of Furcal in 2011, and that Dee Gordon will be able to step in in 2012. No guarantee, but certainly plausible. It’s even conceivable that Gordon’s development could jump ahead of schedule, and perhaps he might be able to provide help by mid-season 2011.

    And finally, we probably need at least one starter from the outside, and perhaps there is an internal candidate for the 5th spot. If McCourt is indeed willing to spend some significant dollars, then all of the above is doable. If he’s not, then we could have a repeat of 2010.

  13. Idaho al says:

    I would like to see Either in LF, Robinson in CF, and Kemp in RF. I do not want Dunn in any position. Leave Looney at First. The 2nd base position will solve itself with players within the organization. Furcal at SS. We need help at 3rd base. Beltre is the only out there with some power. We need to sign Kershaw and Billingsly to 2-3 year contracts. I have no problem with Kuroda and Padilla as the fourth and fifth starters. If we could get a good starter to fill the fourth or fifth position, that would be great. Catching–I just do not know what to do, but keep what we have. I think the bullpen will solve itself. I think Broxton can be saved. However, with Honeycutt coming back, I think you have to trade Broxton. If Honeycutt would leave, then I would keep Broxton. Get rid of all the old guys in the bull pen (Weaver and Sherrill) and go with the younger players within the organization. Jensen and Kuo can be the closers. I hate the over-the-hill pitchers the Dodgers seem to want to keep for the bullpen. These are my thoughts for next year.

  14. Bobby says:

    I think my realistic wish list for next year, FA and trades included (i dont think pujols will be dealt, and i know we wont spend $25mil on cliff lee):

    1) greinke
    2) fielder
    3) crawford
    4) beltre
    5) werth
    6) dunn

  15. Gonzo says:

    Mark, hopefully you are right but if the payroll is 110 including deferred payments won’t it be somewhere in the low 100s or high 90s in actuallity?

    I think that Dunn would be better suited for left and give loney a one more chance to prove he can be a valuable offensive piece to the club if not package him with some of the kids for a proven 3b. By the way I’d be content if signed Jorge Cantu to play 3rd. While Beltre would help now I think Sands is the heir apparent at 3b and would be blocked there by Beltre.

    I still say lets use a band aide at 3b until Sands arrives which could be in couple years. What we need is pitching pitching pitching i.e. the Giants. A 1-3 rotation with kershaw, Bills and Greinke would make us a favorite instantly.

  16. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Jorge Cantu – you don’t want him.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cantujo01.shtml

    Not the kind of power you want at 3B (except for a couple of years), and a lifetime .320 OBP. I’ll pass, and I suspect so will just about everyone else. I’d actually prefer Casey Blake, with someone else giving him an occasional day off.

    As for Jerry Sands, we don’t even know if he can play 3B adequately. Also, 2011 should give us a better read as to whether or not his bat is legit. Who knows, just like RDLR jumped up on the radar this past year, maybe the Dodgers have a hidden gem at 3B who will earn our attention in 2011. I doubt it, but maybe the light will suddenly go on in Pedro Baez. Maybe we’ll find out that the Dodgers haven’t converted him to pitching because they still have high hopes that he’ll succeed at 3B.

    • Ken says:

      Maybe some people should learn how to identify analogies and word pictures

      Once again I recommend How to Read a Book, ISBN 0-671-21280-X Original copyright 1940

  17. Roger Dodger says:

    Finally back from travels — saw just a peak of the games the last week. Makes me almost sick to see the Giants up there, not that it is the Giants, but with just a bit more play from the 2010 Dodgers — the Dodgers could have been on top.

    But, many other teams could say the same thing.

    Broxton’s collapse. Martin’s poor season and then health problems. The middle pen sometimes not able to hold like they used to. Kemp being a problem and not playing like he could. Ethier’s little finger causing him to drop 100 points in hitting and power.

    Many of the suggestions you all have made over the last week (as I read them now) are good ideas. But in reality, it just make take two seasons before it all pans out with a solid team.

    Seems the Dodgers only have 2 outfield spots solid, SS and 1B with ok players — leaving the rest, or 4 spots open for adjustment: C, 2B, 3B, 1 outfield.

    As I have said in the past, I would field a team of no more than two (2) below average-rookie-defensive only players. With the pitchers slot, that leaves three (3) slots in the batting order in the below .240, little power, not much to hit types.

    The Key Is This — will McCourt (the Dodger Dirt Bag) and Ned place solid productive players there — or maybe one solid player and the rest more like two or three rings down the pole???

    That is why it just might take two season to re-tool this team.

  18. Roger Dodger says:

    Ken, I totally agree with you on the suggestion of reading: HOW TO READ A BOOK, by Mortimer J. Adler (Great Books editor) and Charles Van Doren (he entered the text in 1972)

    Used copies are available from $3.50 (plus postage) and above at Abebooks.comhttp://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?an=adler&sts=t&tn=How+to+read+a+book&x=0&y=0

    and Amazon.com (used section)
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/0671212095/ref=dp_olp_used?ie=UTF8&condition=used

    Written about 1940, it will help you to understand what is reading and how to get more out of what you read.

    I once taught a course using this book as the text. Thanks Ken, for suggesting the title.

    Also, try a used book store near you.

  19. chucky says:

    I took believe in Cot and according to Cot we paid $5.4mm in deferred payroll (to players not on team) and in 2011 we have to pay $15.03mm in deferred payments to players not on team). So just due to deferred payments our payroll will go up by $10mm if we have the same payroll amount in 2011 as 2010.

    In 2010 we had $102mm less $5mm or $97mm in players payroll. With the increase in deferred payments (for players not on the team) we will be lucky to get the $97mm in PLAYERS salary again for next year. We also have all the arb eligible payers to deal with and our free agents and new players to add.

    See my prior post on potential new roster, but I am beginning to think the magic number is $100mm for players on the roster.

  20. GoNzO says:

    Thats what I’m thinking too chucky. Unless the salary predictions don’t include deferred payments.

  21. Badger says:

    •2011: $7.5 million ($7 million salary, plus $500,000 signing bonus)

    •2012: $12 million ($10.5 million salary, plus $1.5 million signing bonus)

    •2013: $13.5 million ($12 million salary, plus $1.5 million signing bonus)

    This is an example how McWhimpy pays for his hambrugers today. Does anyone in their right mind believe Ted Lilly will be worth over $25 million in the last two years of this contract? You want Carl Crawford? He is one of the most exciting free agents out there, an every day player, 110 runs, 47 stolen bases, .300 hitter…..yeah, ok, $10 million next year, then $17 million each year for the next four after that.

    Roger is right. It is going to take a couple of years to re-tool this team, and if this is how McDope plans to do it, the Dodgers are in for more of the same.

    Where does he get the money?

  22. Mark Timmons says:

    The Giants are paying Aaron Rowand the same amount over the next two years! Talk about another bad deal.

    The Giants re-tooled with Cody Ross, Juan Uribe and Aubrey Huff – who knew? I mean nobody predicted this.

    I think the Dodgers have a much better base in place than SF did this time last year.

    I would be reluctant to pay Crawford that kind of money. In LA he will be lucky to hit 10 HR a season and T-Rob might be a Mini-Carl. He can steal 47 bases, that’s for sure (if he can get on).

    I think the Dodgers need HR bats at 1B and 3B.

    Kemp and Ethier will produce power in the OF. A good team needs multiple sources of power, which is why I have 1B and 3B slotted as the best positions for that.

    Yes, McCourt will back-load it, but if he can hold on for a couple more years, he will have more money that God!

  23. lawdog says:

    Let’s see. Last year we had a payroll of $102 million which includes about $5.6 million? That gives us a net payroll of approximately $96.4 million for players o the roster and manny who was sort of on our virtual roster but didn’t show up for real games very often.

    We’ve been promised a payroll “higher’ than that but we’re carrying $15+ million in dead salary for players no longer with the team for just this next year. That mesns if McGoo hands out actual deals for players that will play for us he need only pay a smidge more than $81.1 million to keep that “promise”.

    Sorry, but that’s not saying much, is it? Sounds like we won’t be able to even afford a semi-elite FA like Dunn unless he’ll backload 80% of his salary to a barely solvent owner if he’s actually solvent at all after Jamie and the Dragon lady get through cleaning his clock, dollar wise, in the diveroce. How will he afford a top line pitcher that already has $15-20 million per year already locked up, contract wise with so little financial room to work with budget wise?

    No, I don’t think he can do it unless he wants to rent a studio apartment on skid row and eat beans and franks 3 times a day and take the bus to work.

    Hopping around the world in a private jet to have luncheon in Paris, dinner in Tokyo and a stay at a 5 star hotel only to jet back to New York for a brunch at another Hilton? Not to mention handing out hundreds of thousands of dollars each year to his sons for absolutely nothing…

    Will McGoo actually give up that life style?

    Fuhgetaboutit!!!

    No, I think Lilly was our big splurge in all probability. I’ll be real surprised if it isn’t another collection of geezers, wheezers, wannabes and never-weres to fill all the gaping holes on the roster.

    I guess time will tell. I hope to heaven I’m wrong. But I’ve yet to see a tiger actually change his stripes. It would be more likely that happen than McGoo start living a humble life style.

  24. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    “Yes, McCourt will back-load it, but if he can hold on for a couple more years, he will have more money that God!”

    I agree with Mark on this. My concern over McCourt has been his ability to afford additional payroll in the next few years. If the establishment of Dodger TV in 2014 is as lucrative as I think it can be, then by all means it makes sense to backload as much as possible. Also, as 2014 gets closer, I’m guessing that McCourt will be able to frontload some of the sponsorship revenue that the networks will generate. He probably also understands that those networks will generate a lot more revenue for a winner than a loser. And also, as 2014 gets closer, he may find it a lot easier to attract additional financing or investment in the networks. McCourt may not be very lovable, but I’m guessing that he’s not stupid either. Could be that he actually has a long term plan.

    I think Crawford would be good for 15-20 HRs in LA. But even if it’s less, his speed would be invaluable, especially in the spacious ballparks of the National League West. He could probably run all day with a well placed ball in the gap. Triples alley in SF might become inside the park alley for Crawford. And if Dee Gordon should make it to LA in 2012, the combination of Kemp, Crawford and Gordon let loose on the bases would be sight to behold. I love power, but I also love speed. If the Dodgers had Ethier and Kemp plus both corners providing power, then Crawford would be a perfect complementary piece, with more than a little power of his own.

    Keep in mind what Crawford could have done for the Dodgers in 2010, especially if Kemp, Ethier and Loney had had better years. Left field was a black hole for the Dodgers in 2010. Add Crawford, get comebacks from elsewhere in the lineup, and add some pitching, and the Dodgers will score more than enough runs to win consistently.

  25. lawdog says:

    I agree with Gonzo on Dunn and Loney. We can keep the slick fielding Loney who usually hits for an average and drives in runs like he was a power hitter despite his lack of home run production. The number of runs crossing the plate is much important than the number of long flies that end up in the seats. Dunn will be a liability defensively no matter where we try to hide him on the field. Left field is probably the best bet. And Dunn is a FA that McGoo might actully be able to sign. He wanted to come here last time he was a FA and his high strike out rate will keep his price down, relatively speaking. He’s kind of like a position player version of Lilly. Lot’s of nice things but too many liabilities to be in Wertz’ class just like Lilly is no Lee and therefore halfway affordable to someone like McGoo.

    Offensively, his OBP, hr total and rbis make him every bit as attractive to me as Wertz in the sense that a strikeout is just another out. If he hits 40 hrs, has an OBP that pushes .350 (.356 last season), drives in 100 runs (103 last season) and hits .260 to .280, what’s not to like? He made $12 million last year but probably could be had for 3 years for $33 million.

    Third base becomes a major problem because Blake was geezing last year and it’s only going to be all down hill from here until he retires. We must get a power hitter who will drive in runs and not be a liability with the glove. It can’t be another guy held together with duct tape to be a band aid until we find someone else. There’s no guaranteed help on the farm. Beltre would be nice, but can we afford him? Hell, we’re so desperate I’d even be happy to try LaRoche again and he’d probably be practically free.

    Pitching wise, we need a real solid #2 to go with Kershaw and Bills. Lilly is our new Kuroda and I expect he’ll pitch as well as Wolf did for us. He’s probably slightly more talented than Wolf in that he has more pitches and throws his fastball a little bit harder even at his advanced age. Padilla should be signed for our #5, but we still need that stopper who can pitch in the same league as Kershaw and Bills.

    That said, I really doubt Mcgoo will go to this much effort to try and field a team that could actually win. ecause we have to factor in 12 million per year for his living expenses and probably another 12 million a year for the Dragon Lady’s spousal support or buy out , there just isn’t enough jack available to make it work. Not even for a criminal genius mind like McGoo’s.

  26. Badger says:

    You guys are talking about rebuilding this team with smoke and mirrors until the cable deal comes through in 3 years?

    Reading these posts about how McBeans MIGHT be able to pull this off just furthers my distaste for him and makes me continue to wonder what this franchise COULD be like if we had a real businessman as an owner.

    We don’t. We have a bullsh*tting litigator who borrowed his way to the top and has lived an artificially inflated lifestyle on other people’s money. And on top of that, this bozo is in the middle of a nasty divorce and is currently being investigated for fraud.

    Terrific.

    We wait.

  27. Roger Dodger says:

    I would say that when this TV deal come in — all of the players on the team (with their agents in their ear) will want more money to play, to stay, to sign.

    What, even a total of 20 to 30 percent more for the entire team. In hard figure, if the total were $100 million, then raise the total to $130 million for the same players.

  28. Bobby says:

    I think Carl Crawford is a STUD, and is probably well known in the Al east for all he’s done, but we out west just don’t know how good he really is (kind of like pau gasol when he came to the lakers).

    This guy can do EVERYTHING, and do it well, and is a real team leader. He would be exactly the type of guy loney kemp ethier, etc can look up to. He’d lead our team like tori hunter does for anaheim of los angeles, and he’d produce even better than hunter.

    I would LOVE to have him in LF, despite my little man crush on trayvon robinson’s stats from AA and the AFL so far.

    but either way, can’t wait till this boring series finishes so we can start the rumor league!!!!

  29. Ken says:

    Here is some great news – Write in for your ballot as next owner of the LA Dodgers (Take that Moreno)

    Carlos Slim Helu – $53.5 Billion

    “Telecom tycoon who pounced on privatization of Mexico’s national telephone company in the 1990s becomes world’s richest person for first time after coming in third place last year. Net worth up $18.5 billion in a year. Recently received regulatory approval to merge his fixed-line assets into American Movil, Latin America’s biggest mobile phone company. His construction conglomerate, Impulsora del Desarrollo y el Empleo, builds roads and energy infrastructure. Son of a Lebanese immigrant also owns stakes in financial group Inbursa, Bronco Drilling, Independent News & Media, Saks and New York Times Co….. Donating $65 million to fund a research project in genomic medicine with American billionaire philanthropist Eli Broad.”

    He will be able to fund the Dodger salary budget, the Stadium improvements and the real estate development. Fernando – get it done!

  30. Roger Dodger says:

    Ken, maybe this Carlos Slim Helu could fork over some money to put an “edit” on this Dodger site??

  31. Gonzo says:

    Slim is Mexico’s Buffet. He lives in the same house he bought back in the day and made his children share rooms growing up to make sure that they became close. Any how, Broad has big bucks but is Frank McCOUrt(financially) next to Slim

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