Categorized | Mark Timmons

Frankly, You Will Be Surprised

Frankly, You Will Be Surprised

Let me make this clear:

I have little inside information.

This is just my opinion.  But…

I think the Dodgers will make a BIG splash in free agency this offseason!

Frank McCourt knows that he needs to regain the fans confidence in order to put more butts in seats and raise the brand value in TV Contract negotiations, and what better way to do so that to sign a free agent or two?  I don’t mean a fringe guy, but I mean a TOP Free agent…. or three!

Jason Werth will cost too much (can you say “Scott Boreass”?) and he is very good, but he’s not all that!  Outside of Philly, Jason Werth will be better than average but not what he is now.

Russ Martin will be non-tendered.  It only makes sense.  He is my favorite Dodger player, but he stands to get $7 mil in arbitration and he’s not worth that.  He has great potential to turn around, but his production doesn’t warrant that.  Also, non-tendering him sends a message to the rest of the players.  (Savings $5 mil over Barajas and Ellis).

Next, the Dodgers should trade Broxton, Blake and Loney.  There’s not much of a market for Broxton, but St. Louis and Atlanta are interested (Dave Duncan wants a crack at Broxton).  The savings will be $21 million.

No mater how you slice it, if those 3 players are traded the Dodgers should also net a very good starter (Zach Greinke?).

Sign Lance Berkman to play 1B, Adrian Beltre to play 3B and Adam Dunn to play LF.  Cost per season:  $35 million, but Berkman is on a one-year deal.

The bullpen?  Relief pitchers are fickle.  The gang who sucked last year could lead the league next year.

I hear raves about Aroldlis Chapman, but Kenley Jansen is better.  PERIOD!

Chapman pitched just 13 innings while allowing 9 hits and struck out 19.  His ERA was 2.03.

Jansen pitched 27 innings, allowed just 12 hits and struck out 41while posting a 0.67 ERA!  0.67!  That’s right!

Chapman can’t carry Jensen’s jock.

Jansen has not been lucky.  He has been unhittable.  His ERA has been one of the LOWEST EVER for a rookie.  He is the Dodgers closer.

Forget Broxton.

Cut the crap!  He’s the man.

Lineup:

  1. Furcal  SS
  2. Kemp  CF
  3. Ethier  RF
  4. Berkman  1B
  5. Dunn LF
  6. Beltre  3B
  7. DeJesus  2B
  8. Ellis/Barajas  C

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

21 Responses to “Frankly, You Will Be Surprised”

  1. Jon Ball says:

    I agree with everything except about James Loney. Loney has a decent average, untapped power, good glove, and good eye, the problem was that he didn’t have enough surrounding him. When he had hitters around him, his numbers were much better.

  2. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Berkman will be 35 in 2011, and all indications are that he is in decline, with questionable health. In 122 games in 2010, combined with the Astros and Yankees, he hit . 248 with 14 HRs.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berkmla01.shtml

    This is no longer the superstar that played for Houston a few years ago. It seems more than likely that he is now a shell of his former self. Sorry, but I’ll pass. Right now Loney is a better player.

    I believe that Jansen has the stuff to be a closer. But he’s young, has been pitching for less than 2 years, and is for the most part untested, given that he hasn’t yet been around the league multiple times. He’s even exhibited command issues on occasion. Throw him into the fire too early and you’re risking injury. Instead of letting him ease his way into a prominent role, you want to over-burden him when it’s probably not necessary. And apparently you’re blind to the fact that the Dodgers will also need an 8th inning guy, and that at this stage Jansen is perfect for that role. I’d much rather bet that Broxton can turn it around, and that he can also team with Kuo in the closer’s role. As for Kuo, whatever role he plays, he’s going to be limited in how often he can be used. Kuo also could be used in the 8th. But no matter how he’s used, Kuo has to be handled with care, meaning that he cannot be an exclusive closer or 8th inning guy.

    And if Dave Duncan wants a crack at Broxton, then he must be fixable. That being the case, why can’t the Dodgers do it? And if Broxton goes to the Cardinals, how did we get Greinke from KC? And as for Greinke, it seems that 2010 was nothing close to 2009. Maybe he’s not all that he’s cracked up to be.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml

    I’ll trade anyone, Broxton included. I just have to see what we’re getting in return. And I’ll take Dunn also if we can sign him.

    So you think that the Dodgers can sign Beltre, a Boras client, but not Werth, because he’s represented by Boras. Did Beltre dump Boras and I don’t know about it?

    Finally, I agree that Blake is tradeable, but probably not without eating part of his contract and/or buyout. And while he might bring something useful back in return, it probably wouldn’t be all that much. He’s probably mostly a salary dump (but not all of it).

  3. lawdog says:

    I don’t see how Martin could possibly get a huge arbitration award in view of his horrible performance over the last few years, but who in the world would want him?

    Blake is what? 87 years old? And with an average of .240 and on the decline, who in their right mind would give up more than a stale twinkie and half a can of flat near beer for him? Nobody unless we paid his salary and threw in a top prospect in the deal.

    And to trade Broxton now won’t bring anything of value back. And by letting another organization with real coaches get their hands on this raw talent would be a recipe for extreme regret and anger.

    In any event, any money that McGoo manages to free up is going to be spent on servicing his debt or contributing further to his degenerate life style. He won’t spend a plugged nickel on rebuilding the franchise. He has no money and he has no credit. What’s he going to use for money to sign a true FA? There just are not many top flight players that will get suckered into deferring 90% of their contract into the next century. “A dollar down and chase me around” only works if you’re dealing with knuckleheads who happen to be dumber than the proverbial bag of hammers.

    No, spin it as much as you want, you can’t change the real facts here. When you’re broke and the financial world knows it, you’re really BROKE! Mcgoo is not only REALLY BROKE, but even if he could somehow scrape some jack together the last thing he’d do is throw the money away on his now dried up cash cow. If he gets any money ahead at all before Jamie could attach it, he’d spend it on himself. The Dogs are going down and they’ll stay down until he’s completely out of the picture.

  4. Badger says:

    I have to once again agree with Brooklyn and ldog. Both of the above posts make perfect sense to me.

    Blake is our 3rd baseman, Furcal might play 130 games if we are lucky, we have two starting pitchers, Loney is going nowhere, Broxton, Kuo and Jansen look like a darn good 7th 8th and 9th inning relief corps to me and it will cost about $10 million. Mark keeps saying every player will win in arbitration even though I posted the stats that say players win less than half the time, and next years loser would be Martin.

    You all can keep spinning trade ideas around, and maybe somehow some way Colletti can re-organize the $80 million payroll into a winning lineup, but it would take real genius and I don’t see it in Jed.

    “The Dogs are going down and they’ll stay down until he’s completely out of the picture.

    The Dogs ARE down, and they will stay down until McCourt is out of the picture.

  5. Roger Dodger says:

    Several weeks ago I mentioned this — and I believe it more than ever now –

    One of the Dodgers biggest needs for 2011 is relief pitching in the 7th 8th & 9th innings. (As Badger mention above.)

    We almost forgot that for the past several seasons prior to 2010 – that was the Dodgers game. Shut down the other teams for the last nine outs. That did not happen as much this season.

    I betcha’ Clayton and Chad can tell us just how many times the pen let them down from a win, when they left the game leading — but then the Dodgers lost by a weak pen.

    Broxton is too young to throw under the bus. Heck, if it takes a year or two, even a trip to the minors or extended Spring Training to get his control back — take the time and do it. Just who else is there???

    Kuo and Jansen seem like they can do it. Kuo might explode at some point, so need a 4th who can jump in for awhile it needed. Jansen just has to keep learning his craft.

    In reality if 2010 had the relief pitching that the past two season did (2008-2009) the Dodgers would have had many more wins in 2010.

    Say, why do the Dodgers not have a Posey catching in the minors, ready to come up??

    Mark, the only comment I have about your lineup above is too many weak spots:

    DeJesus 2B
    Ellis/Barajas C
    pitching slot
    & even Furcal SS at times.

    That is 4 outs in a row. I would like to see a better hitting 2nd baseman. So, pull one out of a hat. Thanks.

  6. lawdog says:

    We did have a Posey in the minors Roger. His name was Santana and the Dogs gave him away for a bag of peanuts and a down payment on a new Lear jet for the McBastards.

  7. Jon Ball says:

    Buster was 1st drafted by the Angels in 2005. Hindsight is 20 20. It just wasn’t meant to be for them.

  8. Ken says:

    Several days ago one LA tv sports reporter said on the air that the Dodger payroll would be about $60 mil in 2011 and encourgaged the fans to NOT purchase season tickets. Next we see Frank cutting costs and others spining for him. Somewhere in the middle is probably correct. Cause and Effect? Maybe. Straw that broke the camel’s back? Maybe. Come to Jesus experience? Probably not.

    Berkman – Too old and injury prone

    Beltre – Too greedy and conceited

    Loney – Needs a different hitting instructor. Everything that LawDog has ever pointed out about him is not just still true but getting worse. Whoever has allowed Loney to become a dead pull singles hitter who strikes out and hits into double plays all of the time is a MORON. (New Moron identified already for next year?)

    Bowa – I’m ok with him on the bench for one year as a trainer for Mattingly and Wallach (3rd base coach & candidate for skipper in 2-3 years).

    Martin – He will win an increased salary in arbitration for the same reason that school teachers get automatic raises even though they allow their students to create and adopt their own bastardized version of the English language without consequences and no person under the age of 50 has the grammer skills required to ever be hired as a legal secreatary unless they are an out of work lawyer.

  9. Badger says:

    Well said Ken.

    I could see a $60M payroll – or maybe I should say it wouldn’t surprise me all that much. The transition to a Tampa style paradigm is a shift that will take a few years. Maybe we need to get DePodesta back. He knows all that moneyball stuff and has been quite helpful getting the most out of San Diego’s $37 million payroll.

    Ken, I am still not clear on what it was you were saying about the deferring of more contracts. Is there a limit to how much Frankie can stretch into the future? Probably has something to do with debt ratios – right?

  10. Badger says:

    One thing on Martin – winning in arbitration isn’t a guaranteed thing. It really depends on what his side asks, and under the circumstances I would think Martin would work to avoid arbitration. The rules:

    “Arbitration works as follows: In January, the player and the club each submit a salary figure to a three-person panel of professional arbitrators. hearings are conducted between the 1st and 20th day of February.

    At the hearing, each party has one hour to present its case to the panel, and then has an additional 30 minutes for rebuttal. The player must attend the hearing, but is usually represented by his agent. A club executive or attorney usually represents the team.

    The arbitration is a “high-low” proceeding, during which each side presents its case for why the player should be awarded the requested salary in the upcoming season. In deciding to award the higher or lower salary, the panel may consider the following criteria:

    (1) the player’s contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership;

    (2) the club’s record and its attendance;

    (3) any and all of the player’s “special accomplishments,” including All-Star game appearances, awards won, and postseason performance;

    (4) the salaries of comparable players in the player’s service-time class and, for players with less than five years of service, the class one year ahead of him.

    The parties may not refer to team finances, previous offers made during negotiations, comments from the press or salaries in other sports or occupations.

    The panel, without opinion, awards the player a one-year, non-guaranteed contract at one salary or the other. If the player is cut within 16 days before the season begins, he is entitled only to 30 days’ termination pay. If the player is cut during spring training but after the 16th day before the season begins, he is entitled only to 45 days’ termination pay.”

    Taking into consideration Martin was paid $5 million for some very mediocre numbers, his only “special accomplishment” was going on the 60 day DL at most crucial time in the season. After 2009, when he played in 143 games and hit .250, he got a raise from $3.9 to $5 M. His numbers across the board were down in ’10, and he only played in 97 games. Winning in arbitration isn’t automatic, in fact teams win more than players do. It would behoove Martin to be very careful how he approaches this negotiation.

    Having said that, I hope Martin is back with the team and 100% healthy. He is still the best catcher we have. But, at $5 million, he may be the first cut on our way to a $60M payroll.

  11. Roger Dodger says:

    Been watching some football and some of the baseball games –

    Can someone again explain to me — just why the Dodgers are not in the post season???

  12. Roger Dodger says:

    Watching Jason Heyward of the Braves . . .

    The Braves kept him up this season, hits 18 HRs, 72 RBIs and all. Helps them . . .

    But so far he looks terrible in this series.

    Some teams might have kept him in AAA this season, so he could learn to play the game. Now they need him to rise to the occasion and he is zip so far.

    In three previous seasons in the minors — he hit a total of 29 HRs, 125 RBIs, and averaged .318. He just turned 21, so played most of the season as a 20 year old.

    The fans love him — hope he turns it around.

  13. Roger Dodger says:

    I guess I am the only one here today . . .

    Well, Sanchez was just Broxton-ized.

    He pitched his heart out into the 8th inning, then a relief pitcher gives up a HR that put the Braves into the lead.

  14. Badger says:

    Heyward got screwed in the 9th. Strike 3 was a good 4″ outside. That ump sucked all game. He needs to be told the plate is 17″ wide and equal on both corners. His outside calls were atrocious.

    I think Heyward is up a tad early, but he is way ahead of any of our minor leaguers. Our 21-23 year olds are still trying to impress in A and AA.

    If the Braves want to give it away, I am sure the gints will be happy to take it. 2 unearned runs and they lose by 1. Maybe we should try Brooks Conrad at second next year. I’ll bet he becomes available.

    I wonder if MLB will ever do anything about their crappy officiating? It’s the worst of all the major sports, not even close in my book.

    Very quiet in here.

    Colts looked ordinary today. So did the Saints. The Rams are back to usual though.

    OK, go Iggles! Hand the 9ers their ass tonight.

    And Roger, why the Dodgers are not in post-season? There were 3 teams in the division better than them. The Dodgers too are ordinary.

  15. Roger Dodger says:

    Thanks Badger, I am glad that someone explained it to me — back in Spring Training Mark told me the Dodgers would make the post season for the third year in a row in 2010.

  16. Badger says:

    Mark also said we would have 3 or 4 guys with 100 rbi’s, and that Kershaw and Bills would win 20. Mark is like that you know. I think it was both you and I who tried to tell him what he predicted wasn’t possible, I bet him 500, that he SAYS he did in one day – I call B.S. on that one – and that the other teams in the division were improved.

    Blue glasses will do that to a person.

    I don’t think there was a McCreep settlement today. Maybe tomorrow.

  17. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Mark can be a tad optimistic at times. Maybe it is the blue glasses. But I admit, I too thought the Dodgers would win the division. My optimism didn’t take into account that Manny would totally disappear, and that Loney, Kemp and Ethier would all have down years. Add to that the continued decline of Russell Martin, and the unexpected tanking of the bullpen (almost everyone, not just Broxton), and you have a formula for failure. Murphy (of Murphy’s Law) was clearly traveling with the Dodgers in 2010.

    By the way, I root for the Giants (i.e., the NY football Giants). Nice win today.

  18. Badger says:

    Well, in full disclosure, I thought the Dodgers would win the division too. I had them at 92 wins, IF everything went their way.

    Obviously, it did not.

    I just can’t root for the gints. Tried when I lived in Northern California for so long, but, anyone but them. Even the Braves and that obnoxious chop.

    Nice win huh? 2 unearned including a ball right through the second baseman’s legs. No Wagner to close it down. I would say the gints got real lucky.

  19. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Badger,

    Didn’t you read my parenthetical note. I said that I rooted for the New York FOOTBALL Giants, and the nice win was their’s today (I believe 34-10). I have no love for those other Giants by the bay.

  20. Badger says:

    oh……… sorry ’bout that. I have no problem with the Gnu Yourk Giants.

    I noticed you got a post in on the other thread before I got mine in. I was prepared to go on for hours in response to Mark’s rant, but it has all been said so many times before……..

  21. Bobby says:

    i do agree with the overall big premise of this thread. mccourt is so image conscious, and his image has taken a giant giant hit cuz of this divorce and this horrible year we just had.

    to win back the fans (especially the die hard fans like all of us that post), he needs to make a major splash. and i will be the first to say thank you to him if he makes that splash.

    and by splash, i dont mean overpaying for beltre or dunn. i mean getting a STUD (carl crawford, cliff lee, trading for prince fielder, or, if god is watching over us, trading for pujols/adrian gonzales).

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