Categorized | Mark Timmons

Another Pitcher…

Another Pitcher…

Next Stop, LA?

As the baseball playoffs continue, it becomes apparent how important pitching is and how important it is to have that “Ace” on the staff.  In the NL playoffs it is Roy Halladay, who is certainly the Phillies Ace and Tim Lincecum who is is the Giants ace.  In the AL, the surviving teams are the Yanks with C.C. and the Rangers with Cliff Lee.   It’s interesting to see that of the remaining teams, each team’s Ace is a former Cy Young Award Winner.  I guess that emphasizes how important pitching is.

I think that in 2011, Clayton Kershaw will again take more steps forward in becoming the Dodgers Ace.  In fact, it can be argued that he is already in the same class as the other four.  I happen to think he is close.  Which brings us to the big question as to who the Dodgers should get to fill holes in their rotation?  I think that you have to look at it this way:  A winning team has to have three pitchers who are at or near the top of their profession.  The Dodgers had three this year with Kershaw, Billingsley and Kuroda.  As it stands, right now they have two in Kershaw and Billingsley, followed by many question-marks.

Hiroki Kuroda might be willing to return with a one-year deal and while I would probably do that, we have to realize that he will command around $12 mil for that year and will be 36 next season.  He has an injury history, but has been a solid #2 or #3 starter in his Dodger Tenure.  Ted Lilly would be acceptable as a number 4 or 5 starter at say 3 years/$21 million, but I think he will ask for more and in arbitration, he could easily get $10 to $12 mil for 2011.  My question is:  do you want to tie up that much with a flyball pitcher who won’t be a starter in the playoffs?   I think not!  I would offer him arbitration and pray he didn’t accept it (I don’t think he will).  I think Kuroda almost certainly would accept arbitration, so the Dodgers will have to decide if they think it’s wise to spend that much.

Cliff Lee wants C.C. Sabathia money and I can’t see anyone but the Yankees paying that.  Last year, the Dodgers might have been willing to part with the prospects needed for Halladay, but he made it very clear that he preferred to sign with an East Coast team.    Halladay is the kind of cat who would play for less if he could stay closer to him – you don’t see that much in today’s greedy athletes.

A better idea might be to go after Zach Greinke, who has made it no secret that he wants out of KC.  It would probably have to be a 3-way or 4-way deal, but using Broxton, Loney and a couple of the Dodgers Top Pitching Prospects, I believe that the Dodgers could obtain Greinke.  It might be possible to include Casey Blake in the deal, and allow him to play his last season near his home.  Just an idea!

Vicente Padilla could probably be had with the same deal he got last season, which would leave the Dodgers with a rotation of Kershaw, Greinke, Billingsley and Padilla.  Just because Padilla was injured this season, does not mean he will always be injured.  He is a serviceable pitcher and has settled in with LA.  That would leave one spot to fill with a “scrapheap rehab guy” or a rookie.  Most teams have issues at #5.  I still say “Don’t forget Charlie Haeger.”  Look how long it took R..A Dickey – at 34 he finally made the big time, however the Dodgers can’t wait that long on Haeger.

Here’s my roster:

2011 Payroll
Pos Player Salary
C Barajas $1,000,000
C AJ Ellis $405,000
1B Dunn $12,000,000
Utility Mitchell 405,000
Utility Carroll $2,500,000
2B DeJesus $405,000
SS Furcal $12,000,000
3rd Beltre $12,000,000
CF Kemp $7,100,000
LF Ethier $9,250,000
LF/CF Podsednik $1,750,000
LF/1B Gibbons $750,000
OF Johnson 1,000,000
SP Kershaw $500,000
SP Billingsley $5,500,000
SP Greinke $7,250,000
SP Padilla $5,000,000
SP Ely/Haeger $405,000
SP Kuo $2,500,000
RHP Jansen $405,000
RHP Belisario $420,000
RHP Troncoso $425,000
LHP Elbert $405,000
LHP Leach $405,000
RHP Wade $405,000
Deferred: $17,000,000
Total Payroll $101,185,000

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

24 Responses to “Another Pitcher…”

  1. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I don’t know enough about Greinke to know what he’s worth in a trade. However, looking at his career stats (link below), I wonder if 2009 was an aberration, and perhaps he’s not worth what you would normally pay for a former Cy Young winner. If anything, 2010 closely mirrored what were his career stats prior to his Cy Young year in 2009, and I’m wondering if that’s all you get if you acquire him.

    But even if he’s no longer a top of the rotation starter, he would seem to at least fit nicely in the middle of a rotation. It’s the price that has to be paid to acquire him that worries me. The former Cy Young tag may add a premium to the price that is simply not worth it.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml

  2. Badger says:

    I like his IP and his WHIP. So would 29 other GM’s. If he is available, he would be costly.

  3. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Actually, I don’t think I would want Lilly for more than a year, although, if he did accept arbitration, I probably wouldn’t be too pleased if I had to pay him $12 million, even though he will actually only be 35 next season (born January 1976). If I were the Dodgers I would offer him arbitration, and he probably wouldn’t accept it, because I’m almost certain that there are teams out there who will offer him a fairly lucrative multi-year deal. If I’m wrong, and he accepts arbitration, then I pay him and hope for the best. Maybe he works out at the back end of the rotation. At least it’s only a year, and then he’s gone. And if he’s having a decent year, or better, at the trade deadline he could become a valuable commodity.

  4. Badger says:

    What is your prediction on the Dodgers offering arbitration to those who are eligible?

  5. Mark Timmons says:

    Badger,

    I think I would offer it to Lilly because I think he thinks he can get a 3 year deal and wouldn’t take it, but there’s a risk of him trying to get $12 mil…

    Kuroda? He would take it.

    Theriot? Non-Tender.

    Martin? Ditto

  6. Ken says:

    If you really think Kershaw is that good then you must lock him up with a 5 year deal that would pay at least 2 mil in 2011. He is the Dodger’s #1 but he is not yet a pitcher that would “THE Ace” on 25 teams or in the post season.

    Fire another 5 of those assistant GMs and special assistants and maybe the payroll will get to $100 mil.

    I would DFA Martin and offer him $1 mil plus incentives to play C, 1B and 3B part-time so that Mitchell could play another year full-time at AAA and learn how to actually hit to all fields because obviously there is no batting instructor on the Dodgers MLB team that can teach that skill that to a position player.

    With that 5th starter combination the Dodgers need 2 long relievers just to get to the 7th inning.

    The new ticket prices should help Frank’s image for 2 weeks and the joy of seeing the Chilean miners escape their purgatory should reduce unfounded criticism of Frank for 3 days.

    $24 mil for 13 pitchers and the other $77 mil for that? Priceless!!

  7. SpokaneBob says:

    I’d rather have Carl Crawford in left everyday than spend 24 million on Dunn and Beltre. The defense and team speed would be better and the offense would probably be more consistant. Were not going to be able to trade Blake and I don’t want to trade Loney.

    Our priorities have to be a stick for left field and a quality starter.

  8. Badger says:

    McCourt’s priorities are to make sure the season tickets are sold before ST is over. How does he do that? Well, that’s the question isn’t it?

    I like Carl Crawford too Bob. Would he come play in L.A. knowing he may be the only sign the Dodgers are able to do? Yeah, maybe, if the price was right. The thing is, every free agent is going to shop. There are many organizations that can compete, and beat, anything McDustbunny can offer – at this time. Frankie needs to put this divorce behind him and announce a new money partner. He does that, I could become a believer. Until then, I say Lilly, Kuroda, Martin and maybe even Loney will be gone.

    Check this out….. it was written over a month ago but it addresses what we are talking about now:

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/449695-eenie-meenie-predicting-the-future-of-the-la-dodgers-2011-free-agents

  9. geo says:

    The Royals have Billy Butler and Kila Ka’aihue to play first base in the majors and Eric Hosmer waiting in the wings. What the heck would they want with James Loney?

    And while you’re at it, you might explain why they would want Casey Blake too. Or Jonathan Broxton for $7,000,000 in 2011 when they already have an excellent closer already who is a ton cheaper.

    Oh, and by the way, you’re showing Greinke’s $7,250,000 2010 salary for the Dodgers 2011 payroll. Greinke is slated to make $13.5 million in 2011.

  10. Mark Timmons says:

    Geo,

    You are right about Greinke – I took it out of the wrong column.

    On Brox and Loney: I said it would have to be a 3 or 4 way deal. If the Royals got what they wanted (dumping $13 mil in salary and getting 4 -6 good prospects), they might be willing to take back Blake’s pittance for 1 season. After all, he’s almost a local boy!

  11. Bobby says:

    i’d be stoked with a kersh/bills/greinke top 3.

  12. Michael says:

    Adam Dunn strikes out 32.8% of the time[4975AB with 1632 SO]. Is his 16 more RBI’s plus lead glove worth $7 mil more than what James might get in arbitration?

  13. Roger Dodger says:

    Nice beginning Mark.

    I agree with Spokane Bob on Crawford in LF everyday. Go get him.

    On your pitching selections:

    No to either Ely/Haeger, they might be okay for a second rate team, but not our championship team.

    And — I would have to see if Elbert and Leach can pitch in the majors. Really questions here.

    So, there is still some work to do.

    I leave the house in the morning at 4:15 am for the airport, fly to Montreal; 16th Century Society Conference till Sunday noon. I am giving up on the 21st and 20th centuries.

    Assignment for those here: get this team straighten out — soon.

  14. T says:

    Another day, another one of Mark’s crazy roster ideas. Yeah, the cash strapped Royals really want Broxton when they already have one of the best closers in Soria. That’s just a great idea…….

  15. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    In one of my posts above I said the following with respect to Greinke, and included a link to his career stats at Baseball-Reference.com: “If anything, 2010 closely mirrored what were his career stats prior to his Cy Young year in 2009, and I’m wondering if that’s all you get if you acquire him.”

    I made that statement w/o being aware of the details of his contract. So I went to Cot’s, and it turns out that his salary is not only $13.5 million for 2011, but the same also for 2012. That means the Dodgers would be buying into $27 million of obligations over the next two years for a pitcher who’s had only ONE really good year. Again, maybe if I saw him pitch regularly I would be gung-ho to get him, and maybe not. But relying solely on his stats, taking on that much money for a pitcher without a consistent history of top level success makes me wary. That much money committed to a sinlge pitcher without a long track record of excellence makes me nervous, and might be a mis-use of resources that could better be used to address other needs. Throw in the fact that acquiring him would likely be costly in players, and I get the feeling that it could turn out to be deal the Dodgers would regret for a quite a while.

    If Broxton returns to form, he is clearly worth $7 million. It may be that some people don’t think closers are worth that much, but I do. Countless games are won and lost in the late innings. And even if it turns out that Broxton becomes a bust, at least the $7 million is for one year only.

  16. mark says:

    T,

    You should learn to read and comprehend.

    I didn’t say what you wrote.

    Go back and read it… Slowly, if necessary.

  17. Badger says:

    I had assumed the research on Greinke’s contract was already done. My bad. Greinke’s out.

    I also have to admit that I didn’t read the piece all that closely, but upon re-reading I see a bottom line payroll of 101M. You left off the $20 million for the lawyers. Those guys are currently his starting lineup.

    After everything we have read about what is going on with the McRose’s, you really believe he can pull off a payroll of 100 XL? I don’t see it. Unless there is a quick settlement with the barracuda and Frankie takes on a partner, and the only family I see that would work with this guy is the Sopranos, I think we can count on a payroll somewhere around $88M or less. Things are a lot different now than they were last year at this time.

  18. Mark Timmons says:

    It HAS to be over $100 mil!

  19. Badger says:

    Why?

    And for anyone thinking Carl Crawford will coming here, I suggest you read the MLB Trade Rumors over there ————->

    5 years at $15 per with the bidding maybe reaching $20M per? Do you REALLY believe the Dodgers are in a position to do that?

  20. Bobby says:

    i think crawford will get a similar deal to torii hunter: $18 a year or so.

    however, if the yanks get in, then it’ll exceed 20 mil.

  21. Roger Dodger says:

    . . . as I leave till next Tuesday . . .

    One thing we know — as Dodger fans:

    The Dodgers do not buy pennants. The Dodgers do not raise the bar, salary wise.

    We are the K.C. Royals, we are the Pittsburgh Pirates, we are the Oakland A’s, we are . . .

    Come on judge, judge for Dodgers fans.

  22. Mark Timmons says:

    Since Frank McCourt bought the Dodgers their payroll has averaged $102 mil a year while KC has averaged $57.4 mil a year.

    Pittsburgh has averaged $41.4 mil a year in payroll.

    Oakland has averaged $60.9 mil a year.

    I fail to see the connection.

    Come on, you are sounding like Lawdog who said I called him an A-Hole, but couldn’t recall where I did that because I never did.

    Have a take and do not suck!

  23. Badger says:

    Oakland and Pittsburgh both had attendance levels of 1.6 million. Oakland 1.4 million – all less than half of what the Dodgers draw. Half of $100 million is about what the other teams payrolls are.

    McGoo lives on the money that 3.5 million fans bring to the park. I am willing to bet that if Pittsburgh, Oakland and K.C. were all drawing twice as many fans, their payrolls would double.

    You speak of the Dodgers payroll as if McCheesey is making a great sacrifice to keep payroll that high. Hardly. He does it because he can live his inflated lifestyle AND have a high payroll. But with the debt he has accumulated, and the apparent fact that no banks are stepping up to help continue the ruse, it could very well happen that the Dodger payroll sinks. How far? Depends on how long the divorce stretches out, and how many fans walk away from this clown.

  24. lawdog says:

    Come on Mark. You know you said anyone who said the things I said about McGoo was an asshole in one of your daily articles a few days back. In fact, it was in response to that very article where i set forth some things I’d said that have not been refuted and invited you and your fans to find a fault in what I said. Ray tried to attack the material, but his was the only attempt and who’s material I answered in the same thread.

    Only someone who was felony stupid would fail to see your “asshole” reference was meant primarily for Badger and myself without actually coming out and saying it point blank.

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