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Is This The Part Where They Gut The Farm?

Is This The Part Where They Gut The Farm?

I think there comes a time when you have to assess what you have and what you could have if you are willing to roll the dice. Sure, the hitters have been slumping

Do it, Ned! Just Do It!

lately, but that’s only temporary.  This is a very good hitting team, especially when all the parts are in place.  I think the time has come for the Dodgers to pull the trigger, gut the farm and go for broke THIS year.  This is Manny’s last year in LA, Raffy is getting older and so is Casey Blake.  The hitting is fine – Manny is heating up, Matt will get his stroke back and Andre will take up where he left off a few weeks ago.  Offensively, I believe the Dodgers can play with anyone.  Pitching is the issue.  Starting pitching in particular.  Now I happen to believe that Kershaw, Kuroda and Billingsley are among the best trios in the league.  But to get past the NLCS, the Dodgers need more.   They need Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt!

The Dodgers will be loathe to give up any major league players, so they will have to overpay in prospects.  What would it take to get Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt?  Here’s the list and I think it would take every last one:

  • Ethan Martin
  • Aaron Miller
  • Chris Withrow
  • Dee Gordon
  • Kyle Russell
  • Ivan DeJesus, Jr.
  • James McDonald
  • Scott Elbert

That would effectively “gut” the farm.  I also think the Astros and Mariners would take Padilla and Ely in lieu of a couple of the prospects.

Me?  I would do it.  I’d go for it all.  Clayton Kershaw would be your #3.  Hiroki Kuroda would be the #4 and Chad Billingsley the #5 starter with Lee and Oswalt the 1,2 punch.  I think the Dodgers could win with that team… and I mean WIN IT ALL!

They would pay for it down the road, but it could be sweet this year!

Before you go off on “McCourt won’t spend the money”  you need to realize that Frank knows a Championship would pay off in much greater revenue.  If this deal doesn’t happen, a similar one will.  Watch and learn!

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

15 Responses to “Is This The Part Where They Gut The Farm?”

  1. Ely's Coming, Better Hide your Heart says:

    If the rest of the fan base is willing to deal with being below .500 for the next 5 to 6 years after we “win” the championship, I’d say go for it. If we do this and win the title and we suck afterwards, there shouldn’t be any complaints.

    If we do this and don’t win the World Series, there shouldn’t be any complaints.

  2. Bootz says:

    I’m with you. How about throwing Martin in the package and getting a catcher that can HIT, or DEFEND? Two things Martin cannot do.

  3. Badger says:

    I like the way you think.

    I would do it too.

    But, I doubt the Dodgers do.

    You see, like I mentioned earlier, there is this whole divorce thing hanging over the organization like a heavy sharp sword. The great, late-Republican Roman orator and statesman Cicero describes the Sword of Damocles thusly………….

    “Quamquam hic quidem tyrannus ipse iudicavit, quam esset beatus. Nam cum quidam ex eius adsentatoribus, Damocles, commemoraret in sermone copias eius, opes, maiestatem dominatus, rerum abundantiam, magnificentiam aedium regiarum negaretque umquam beatiorem quemquam fuisse, ‘Visne igitur’ inquit, ‘o Damocle, quoniam te haec vita delectat, ipse eam degustare et fortunam experiri meam?”

    I can’t be certain but I think it applies here. If we go for it, and it doesn’t work, we will pay for years. There are a lot of teams out there that are arguably much better, and much closer, than ours.

    I say again, it depends on where we are in mid to late July. It may be smarter to trade Manny to a team like Tampa, give Blake to anyone who wants him, send Kuroda and his $15 million to a contender, give Raffy a shot at winning something somewhere, trade Martin to the the Jays……. and get younger and stronger for when the dust finally settles on the McCursed.

    Should be interesting.

  4. DRomo says:

    Lee and Oswalt? I love the idea but it would be incredible to land both this year without giving up Bills or another pitcher on this staff.

  5. jaydavis says:

    how sweet whould that be having Bill,s as are #5 guy

  6. Jared Massey says:

    Mark, your idea would make me obsolete, so I don’t like it. :P

  7. Mark Timmons says:

    Jared,

    You could cover T-Ball!

  8. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I don’t have a problem with throwing a lot of prospects at the Mariners and Astros to get Lee and Oswalt, as long as the Dodgers have a long term organizational plan to re-build the farm system, starting with the signing of Lee (can’t remember his first name), their first round pick. The decision should also be made based on how well they think that current players within the organization can replace those leaving. Are there any very young prospects currently flying under the radar that are about ready to step up? And assuming that the list above is accurate, will players like Lindblom, Webster and Jansen be ready to contribute in a meaningful way?

    And, if the list above is accurate, how do the Dodgers actually assess their ability? A player may be hyped as being a top prospect, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t doubts within the organization about certain players which we never hear anything about.

    And I’m not as sanguine as Mark regarding the offense. I believe that Kemp will pick it up, but this could also be the year he takes a step backward before taking two forward. Casey Blake isn’t getting any younger, and I’m beginning to believe that he may be showing signs of decline. That’s a position at which we need an upgrade. Ethier will probably pick it up, assuming his finger gets fully healed, and soon. Manny I’m not sure about. He’s picked it up a bit lately, but at 38, and still as slothful as ever, I’m wondering if he can sustain it. And after the Angel series, he has to go back to playing leftfield. And Raffy also raises questions in my mind. Because he can be streaky, both in the field and at the plate, I wonder how much he can contribute in the second half. I’m not saying he can’t, but I am saying that there are unanswered questions concerning his overall play, and even his health.

  9. Badger says:

    According to SI.com, and I quote:

    “L.A. has spent less on draft picks the last two years than any club, and it shows.”

    And if we don’t sign Lee, it is going to show even more.

    I regurgitate what I have been saying since last year – what you see is what you get. These are your Los Angeles Dodgers for 2010 and there is little help on the immediate horizon. If we decide to throw the farm at Oswalt or Lee (to think we can get both is ludicrous) we will be even further down the list of minor league prospects. SI has us near the bottom now, but not on the “Worst Five” list. We go get one of those two pitchers and we will quickly get to the bottom.

    I sure hope Raffy can come back and have his heart in it. And, we need both Kemp and Ethier to do what they do or it won’t happen for us.

    This team has one month to get it’s collective stuff together. If we are not kicking ass by mid July, it will be time to start thinking about cutting bait.

  10. lawdog says:

    Frankly, I don’t think this club is going to hit a lick from on out. Our offense has become almost as lame as our starting pitching.

    I feel just the opposite of Mark. We need to cut bait, trade some geezers for promising youngsters and set our sights on contending 2011-2015.

    The following should be traded before the deadline for some young prospects:

    Blake, Furcal, Manny, Martin, Weaver, Padilla, Kuroda. Sherrill and Haeger.

    Build the club around our nucleus of young studs. Reach for the gold ring like Mover is suggesting will brijng us up short once more. We not only don’t get consistently good starting pitching, we can’t hit our way out of a paper bag as a team right now. Adding an ace isn’t going to make the nut!

  11. Kevin says:

    Damn Mark sure am glad you’re not the GM. We don’t need both those guys just one….Cliff Lee preferably.

  12. Bill Russell says:

    I agree with Kevin, Let’s just get one of these guys and put Padilla in the 5th spot. I prefer Cliff Lee however.

  13. Michael says:

    I have always said “grow your own”. I’m with Lawdog on this one. Teams like the Rays and the Marlins are strong because they trade geezers for young players. Teams that trade the future for geezers have to replace those geezers with scrubs. A house is only as strong as the foundation that it is on. P.S. I would give up prospects for a young arm like Zach.

  14. Badger says:

    The O’Malley’s recognized the down years as a necessity in any organization’s life. It made the good years that much more special. The Dodgers have become a corporate entity that does not accept losing, so, each year they do the desperate moves instead of really planning for the future. They can keep this paradigm going only because they draw 3 million no matter how close they come, or don’t come, in the process of throwing money at the problem.

    As Dr. Phil says, you can’t solve problems with the same consciousness that created them.

    I have changed my mind and am with Michael and ldog on this one. If we aren’t in it by mid July, let’s think about a salary dump and rebuild this system to what it once was.

    That may take a new owner too, but, if that’s what is needed, I am all for it.

    Now, having said that, I still bet the Dodgers won’t do it no matter what happens between now and the deadline.

  15. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I am always reluctant to trade talented young players for veterans that may only give me a year or two. And quite honestly, adding Lee and/or Oswalt is far from a guarantee that we make it to the World Series, let alone win it. Lawdog, Michael and Badger all make good points, and I find myself leaning to that same point of view.

    As talented as he is, tonight’s game was proof positive why it’s a bit premature to call Kershaw an ace. An ace in waiting, yes. An ace now, no. I knew, Abreu knew and everybody on this blog probably knew that Kershaw as going to throw a fastball down the middle, because that’s what he usually does when he’s behind in the count and having trouble throwing strikes. I can’t remember the last time, if ever, I saw him throw a breaking ball when behind in the count. That’s something an ace might do.

    So Kershaw isn’t an ace, Billingsley is hurt and has been inconsistent, and Kuroda is both good and bad, and 35 years old. Ely has been very good and also very bad. Same for Monasterios. We could add Lee and Oswalt (and I agree that acquiring both is a longshot at best), and there would still be doubts going into the playoffs. The offense may pick up, and maybe not. Casey Blake is looking more and more like his age, Russell Martin shows occasional signs of changing his hitting approach, but invarialbly reverts back to over-swinging. And Furcal is questionable. At some point I expect Kemp to start hitting again, but I’m not ruling out that this could be the bad year he needs to grow up and dedicate himself to becoming the player he can be in the years to come. As I said earlier, maybe he needs to take a step back before taking two forward.

    All that said, maybe this is the year to dump our geezers, and plan for the future, beginning with 2011. If the Dodgers are willing to spend the money on Lee beyond this year, then he can be acquired over the winter for the price of a draft pick. If they are only planning to rent him, then selling off the farm would be ill advised. Between a good trade or two that does not gut the farm system, free agency, and reliance on some our up and coming youngsters, this could be very good team next year. Kuroda’s salary will be gone, Manny’s deferred pay will be less than he’s making this year, we won’t be paying Ausmus $1 million (A.J. Ellis is fine as our backup, and cheaper), and perhaps we can move some of our geezer salaries. And maybe Paul becomes a cheaper, but effective, 4th outfielder.

    Throw in a new, younger manager less enamored of geezers, maybe a new owner (or a more focused old one), and pehaps the Dodgers become the team to beat next year. We’ve waited 22 years, and I for one can wait another.

    OK, I’ve rambled on enough. Time to wait and see what happens, if anything, between now and the trading deadline.

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