Categorized | Mark Timmons

Opening Day Roster Initial Prediction for 2010

Opening Day Roster Initial Prediction for 2010

Starting Pitching ($22,800,000):

  1. Kershaw (He will pitch great but with a losing record) $425K
  2. Billingsley (He will figure “IT” out this year) $3,850,000
  3. Padilla (Will surprise us this year) $5,025,000
  4. Kuroda (50% probability of injury) $13,000,000
  5. Stults (Will continue to pitch very erratically until Torre gives up on him) $500K

Relievers ($11,550,000):

  1. Broxton (Will have an erratic year with some Great weeks) $4 mil
  2. Kuo (Will have a great year unless Torre overuses him) $950K
  3. Troncoso (Will probably have a sore arm in 2010) $460K
  4. Sherrill (Will have an average year) $4.5 mil
  5. Monasterios (Mop up guy for 2010 preparing for a good 2011 year) $410K
  6. Weaver – (Swing Man will have a below average year/may be released) $750K
  7. Heager – (Relieving will improve his game until he becomes a Starter) $430K

Others on 40 man Roster:

  1. Elbert – (AAA) MLB Starter in waiting
  2. McDonald – (AAA) MLB Starter in waiting
  3. Link – AAA
  4. Wade – AAA
  5. Belisario – Released or traded
  6. Schlitling – Sept Call up
  7. Leach – Sept Call up
  8. Jensen – Sept Call up
  9. Guerra – AA
  10. Zerpa – Released under Rule 5 rules

Position Players ($38,410,000):

  1. Ellis (Will play good enough until Martin gets “IT”) $430K
  2. Loney (2010 better than Wes Parker’s best year) $3.1 mil
  3. DeWitt (Will play erratically until he finally uses the whole field) $410K
  4. Furcal (Will have an above average year) $8.5 mil
  5. Blake (Will have an average year with many minor injuries) $6 mil
  6. Rameriz (Will have an erratic year) $10 mil
  7. Kemp (Women weaken legs – Will play bad at home & good on the road) $4 mil
  8. Either (Same as 2009) $6 mil

Bench Players ($4,375,000):

  1. Ausmus (Will be passed by Ellis and converted to Coach) $850K
  2. Carroll (Will play well & often but not worth the price) $1.35 mil
  3. Belliard (Will be traded in mid-year) $825K
  4. Anderson OF & 1B (Will be better than Sweeney) $550K
  5. Johnson (Will play good enough until injured) $800K

Others on 40 man Roster ($5,050,000):

  1. Martin – (Will struggle as the coaches attempt to correct his swing) $5.05 mil
  2. Repko – Waived to create roster spot for Anderson
  3. May – AAA
  4. Robinson – AAA
  5. DeJesus – AA
  6. Paul – AAA until he replaces Johnson
  7. Hu – AAA until he replaces Belliard

Written by Ken

About Ken

Ken is a professional working in multiple disciplines who has participated in various sports from elementary school through post intercollegiate level. He may be the only athlete in intercollegiate sports history to have started as both a middle blocker on an intercollegiate volleyball team and as a hook on an intercollegiate rugby team during the same season. He has been a Dodger fan since youth and now regularly watches over 150 Dodger games per season.

33 Responses to “Opening Day Roster Initial Prediction for 2010”

  1. Roger Dodger says:

    Nice job Ken. Above you show an average struggling team. A few games above .500. Sleeping on the job some games, winning others.

    This was a .500 type teams until Manny joined them — then they started to play with passion. If the passion is gone — the D-Backs, Rockies, Giants at the least will have more passion.

    I believe it all begins with Furcal. IF his fielding and arm is there again — that helps. IF he can get on base and not be a 4 to 3 or 6 to 3 or 5 to 3 or some combination that that — but can hit the ball — the Dodgers will be fine.

  2. Erik says:

    The one I made looked similar, only differences were I had Weaver in the pen and no room for Heager and Monstarous wasn’t on mine, Lindonblom(sp) was.

    But I didn’t see a clear cut backup for short on this list. Tats why Nick Green or Amezaga might slip onto the roster. Only issue is I can’t see where. To me Anderson is a lock for bench lefty, his bat at his age is better than the other two options and his defense has to be better than a man with no shoulder and another with no knees.

  3. Erik says:

    Is this the last year for Blake and Furcal or o they have one more?

  4. mark says:

    One more

  5. Scoop says:

    A dose of reality at DodgerTalk. Thanks ken.

    Since we don’t have a two hole hitter, if I am manager I put a line drive hitting to all fields left handed hitter there – the best we got is our natural 3 hitter…Ethier. I don’t like it but, that’s what I do.

    It is vital for this team to have a lead-off guy get on near .400 – and I doubt Furcal does that but he might get close. Might get close, with an emphasis on MIGHT! With him on first a big hole opens up on the right side, the pitcher loses a bit of concentration, more fastballs are thrown, the catcher is screened and must throw through the hitter – the left handed hitter is ideal in the two hole. Is DeWitt ready for that?…… doubt it.

    And one must again ask……… why Carroll and not Lopez? But I digress…….

    OK, now maybe when a left handed pitcher starts, the exception rather than the rule, Kemp goes in the two hole. But Matt Kemp needs to start thinking like a clean-up hitter and he won’t do it batting second.

    The first glaring weakness in this team are holes in the starting pitching. The second, in my opinion, is putting a 4 hitter in the two hole. The third fourth and fifth……… well, two things at a time.

  6. Roger Dodger says:

    Scoop, that is why I say that the beginning of this team is —– Furcal. If he does have a quality year in the field and at the plate (that is why we are paying him) — the Dodgers have a great chance to go all the way. Or, at least most of it.

    If Furcal cannot not perform, struggles, has to sit a few games –

    Then we have weakness at catcher, 2nd base, 3rd base, and SS. That will be hard to overcome.

    But heck, it is time for dreaming. Furcal can do the job. Furcal can do the job. Furcal can do the job . . . keep saying that . . . Furcal can do the job . . .

  7. lawdog says:

    If Martin “gets it”, he’ll be an ideal two hole hitter.

  8. lawdog says:

    It’s not easy to have an OBP of .365 when you’re hitting .250! :shock:

  9. lawdog says:

    Imagine if he raises his average to .285–(definitely within the realm of possibility.) If Martin can hit ,285, his OBP should be over .400

  10. lawdog says:

    Stop all the clocks, cut off the telephone,
    Prevent the dog from barking with a juicy bone,
    Silence the pianos and with muffled drum
    Bring out the coffin, let the mourners come.

    Let aeroplanes circle moaning overhead
    Scribbling on the sky the message He Is Dead,
    Put crepe bows round the white necks of the public doves,
    Let the traffic policemen wear black cotton gloves.

    He was our North, our South, our East and West,
    Our working week and our Sunday rest,
    Our noon, our midnight, our talk, our song;
    We thought that love would last for ever: We were wrong.

    The stars are not wanted now: put out every one;
    Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun;
    Pour away the ocean and sweep up the wood.
    For nothing now can ever come to any good.

    W. H. Auden

    Merlin Olsen (1940-2010) died last night. He was 69.

  11. chucky says:

    Let me try to figure this out:
    We will need 93-95 wins to win the West and since pitching is the issue I am most worried about I wanted to set goals for them:
    Bills 12 wins
    Kershaw 10 wins
    Kuroda 8 wins (before he goes on DL)
    Padilla 8 wins
    5th starter (whomever) 6 wins
    TOTAL 44
    Bullpen needs to get 45 (got about that last year)

    TOTAL of 89 and we are fighting for the Wild Card

    What is wrong with this picture?

    Discussion???

  12. lawdog says:

    We will contend for the wild card. I think you’ve got it right Chuck.

  13. Scoop says:

    The West is better this year, and it was very good last year. It wouldn’t surprise me if they beat each other up all year and the winner takes it with less than 94 wins.

    The bullpen is going to win, and lose, a lot of games this year. I don’t see Padilla going more than 170 innings, Kuroda has never gone more than 183 so, I’ll give him that many this year, Bills should get 200 and Kershaw? who knows but let’s give him 200 as well – I don’t even know who the #5 is so no clue what to expect.

    Yep, that’s a lot of bullpen innings.

    Bummer about Olsen. I had a friend up in Northern California, and instructor at at a J.C. there, former guard for the Cowboys and 49ers, I asked him who the toughest DT he ever faced was and he laughed and said “no question – Merlin Olsen – he never got tired and never took a play off. By the beginning of the 4th quarter he had every guard who ever went up against him sucking air”.

    Martin is good choice for the two hole, but a lh hitter, with speed and bat control, is the best fit. I think most managers will agree with that take.

  14. Roger Dodger says:

    Chucky — I believe there will be some good forward movement with the hitting this year. Last year, as we all know, the guys did not hit in many situational situations. That is, 0 or 1 out, runner at second — did not get the runner to 3rd. Thus, many times not scoring that runner at all.

    Runner to 3rd, and not getting the runner home.

    If that kind of hitting can mature and make things happen, then I see:

    Kershaw getting 16 plus wins.

    C-Bills getting 16 plus wins.

    Kuroda getting 14 plus wins.

    Padilla getting 14 plus wins.

    And that 5th starter slot getting 12 plus wins.

    Gee, that is 72 wins. Okay, take off 10% — that is 64 or 65 wins with those starters.

    Let the pen get 30 wins and the Dodgers are there.

  15. chucky says:

    Roger, you are an optimist and I guess on a Dodger Blog that is good. I love being a fan, we can think anything.

    Lets see:
    Kershaw and Bills with 15 wins each with both pushing past 200 innings (Wow)
    Padilla with 13 wins (maybe)
    Kuroda with 13 wins (I hope he stay healthy)
    5th STARTER WITH 11 wins (I don’t know about that)

    You are assuming no injuries to the starters and everyone has a career season (I love being a fan)

    You do realize that you are estimating that the dodger will win more than 100 games?

    I don’t know about that…..

  16. Ken says:

    Roger – Agree re Furcal; unfortunately I am still predicting the Dodgers as Wild Card winners.

    Erik – Lindblum is a very difficult decision that I did not address because he is not yet on the 40 man roster. Do not be surprised if he has a great spring and goes down to AAA with the understanding that if (1) the Dodgers are in the pennant race, (2) they really really need another pitcher, and (3) the Dodgers can not find a good trade then he will be called up as the trade deadline addition. Accelerating the clock for no reason is too expensive in the current Dodger environment.

    LD – I agree re Martin. If he gets it and becomes a true role player he could make this team very good by hitting second. He now has his minimum $5 mil per year for 2-3 more years so why not??

    Scoop – If DeWitt could hit for average and not try to hit home runs for Mark he might be a good solution batting second. But that is a lot of pressure for a kid. I completely agree re Kemp. Mr. K batting 2nd? Now that can be a real rally killer!

  17. Scoop says:

    I would be much more confident in DeWitt had he handled AAA pitching when sent there last year. I don’t buy the up-down argument – hitters hit. He has been a pro for 6 years, and has a career .277 avg. including .256 in a full season last year at AAA. Come on man, show us something big league – you are first round pick dude. If he could hit .280, with a decent OBP, I would put him in the two hole, replacing Hudson there. But, alas, DeWitt ain’t showed he belongs yet.

    Yeah, optimism is good. Every team in the West (and all their fans) has it this year. Should be a real wild west shoot out. Sure hope Manny can hit sans steroids. If he is pedestrian, so will be the Dodgers.

  18. Table says:

    pretty much right on. There is no way Robinson skips AA though. Also I think you were sort of joking about Matt Kemp, he is going to be great this year.

  19. Roger Dodger says:

    If C-Bills and Kershaw develop their pitching attitude with less balls thrown, that translates to less walks, and the hitters hit better in those hitting situations for the Dodgers — it is a lock for the starters to win more games — and the great pen to simply close the door on other teams and pick up more holds and saves.

    The starters should get 27 to 33 starts depending on if’s.

    If one of them falters, then the backup guys like Lindblom and other are ready.

    See, I am with the program. Go Dodgers.

    But we know that it will be the match-up of Bills or Clayton with Cain or Lincsom or whoever. Got to win a bunch of those games.

  20. lawdog says:

    C-Bills and Kurveshaw need to throw more cuters, get more ground outs, throw fewer pitches. If they do that, we’ll be better than 89-73.

  21. lawdog says:

    That’s cutters, not cuters! Sheesh! Edit button!

  22. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I’m not even going to get into this discussion. Too much negativity for me. But I’m naive, since I think this is a good team, with some question marks (what team doesn’t have any?).

    2-hole hitter = MATT KEMP.

  23. steevo17 says:

    Here’s my current 2010 lineup/roster (and my stat predictions) so far:

    1. SS – Furcal (.290 BA/.385 OBP/95+ Runs…and great defense)
    2. 2B – Belliard (.275 BA/.700+ OPS) if DeWitt starts…Kemp bats here, everybody moves up one spot.
    3. CF – Kemp (.305 BA/.900+ OPS/30+HR/100+ RBI/30+ SB/Gold Glove/Top 3 MVP finish…your basic “monster” year.)
    4. RF – Ethier (.290 BA/.850 OPS/30+ HR/100+ RBI/5+ GW HR…an Top 10 MVP finish)
    5. LF – Ramirez (.300 BA/.900+ OPS/25-29 HR/100 RBI/10+ “just being Manny” episodes)
    6. 1B – Loney (.310+ BA/12-17 HR/95+ RBI/Gold Glove…and people will finally stop trying to change him into a HR hitter)
    7. 3B – Blake (.265 BA/19 HR/70+ RBI…his steadiness is truly amazing)
    7. 2B – DeWitt (.275 BA/12-17 HR/60+ RBI/reliable defense…he will grow leaps and bounds)
    and when Belliard starts…
    8. C – Martin/Ausmus/Ellis (good defense/great pitch calling/enough offense to keep us successful)

    This lineup will be productive and explosive at times…plus notice the R/L/R/L throughout?

    Note: of all the above, only Kemp, Loney and Ethier will get 600+ AB. Furcal should get close to 600 PA, but with more rest, should be limited to approximately 125-130 games.

    Carroll, Johnson and, hopefully, Anderson should provide punch and reliability off the bench. Of course Anderson has yet to play, but should be the best hitting option available. Meintkeiwiczhsewocnsy (Eyechart) is hitting .473, but he is limited to only backing up 1B, a liability in my opinion due to needing a bigger bullpen.

    Brian Giles retired today, he wasn’t a real option anyways, his injuries were too much. Ditto on the injuries, so far, for Amezaga and Nick Green (.375 OBP) might still play his way onto this roster.

    Keep an eye on Angel Berroa (.600 BA), he is a decent SS and can play multiple positions.

    Pitchers tomorrow…

    Still early Dodger fans…with so many options, many unexpected things will happen. Just enjoy and get ready for a big 2010.

  24. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Steevo,

    Good post. I generally don’t get into stat predictions, since there are too many variables. Suffice it to say, I see us having a productive offensive year, with good numbers permeating throughout lineup.

    I can see Kemp hitting third, but I tend to think that Torre would like his speed near the top of the order. And I think power plays well in the 2-hole. Whatever the case, I would like to see him (and others) moving around as little as possible in the lineup. Also, unless his productivity decreases, I can’t see Manny hitting 5th.

    I tend to think that when he plays, Belliard will hit near the bottom of the lineup, pretty much at or near where DeWitt hits. For certain, his lack of speed does not play well at the top of the order. Also, if DeWitt shows that he can handle lefthanders (he hit .286 against southpaws in 2008) it might be that Belliard sees limited time at 2B, and perhaps doesn’t remain with the team all year.

    Torre of course, has the final say. But for what it’s worth, here’s my lineup preference at this time:

    1. Furcal
    2. Kemp – if Furcal gets on Kemp should see some nice pitches to hit with Ethier, Ramirez and Loney behind him.
    3. Ethier
    4. Manny
    5. Loney
    6. Martin – when he returns
    7. Blake
    8. DeWitt – has a good eye at the plate, and should be able to work his way on base a lot in front of the pitcher

    When Ellis or Ausmus are starting, they probably hit 8th, with Blake and DeWitt moving up in the lineup.

    One of the reasons I like Kemp hitting #2 is the opportunity for the Dodgers to score a lot of first inning runs. I agree with
    Tim McCarver, who has often said that baseball is a game of “firsts”. First pitch strike, first out, first run. Scoring first gives a team a considerable advantage if done consistently throughout the season. If Furcal is getting on base, then Kemp becomes extremely difficult to pitch to given that he’s followed by Ethier, Manny, Loney, etc. Some first inning two run homers would be nice, and so would watching Ethier, Manny, and Loney hitting with both those rabbits on base.

  25. Scoop says:

    3 guys with 100 RBI and a 4th with 95. 5 guys with .290 or better and 3 over .300. Over 525 RBI’s from 6 guys.

    If the above happens, the Dodgers win over 100 games and run away with the West.

  26. Roger Dodger says:

    Furcal first up, yes.

    If I am Joe, I do not want Kemp up 2nd — no. I want a hitter who can hit behind the runner, can BUNT, especially bunt — get Furcal in scoring position.

    A #2 hitter needs to move the possible inning along. Not just a HR or ball off the wall once and a while — but almost every time Furcal is on 1st or 2nd base, to be able to move him along.

    Then you have 1 out, with Furcal in scoring position — so a single or double brings in a run. The guys left too many of those runs opportunities out there last year.

  27. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    That’s what we need, a team that plays small ball with a stacked lineup. Kemp by the way, hits the ball to all fields and is perfectly capable of hitting behind the runner. If that’s what I want. But if I have the hitters, I would rather take my chances by having them swing the bat. Chances are a hitter like Kemp is not going to hit into too many double plays. And if Kemp makes out without advancing the runner, I’ll take my chances with Ethier and Manny following. And as I pointed out before, Kemp hitting in front of Ethier, Manny and Loney is likely to see an awful lot of fat pitches. Sorry, this is not a team that’s built of play for a run at a time. Occasionally, yes, as a rule, no.

    Also, as the lineup turns over, how many times is Furcal going to lead off an inning? And how often will Furcal get good pitches to hit because he has Kemp behind him? Besides, the more chances Kemp gets to hit, the better I like it. And what’s so bad about having the pitcher sacrifice a runner to second or third and have him followed by Furcal and Kemp?

    Small ball has its place, but not when you have the guns to create big innings.

  28. steevo17 says:

    I agree with you Brooklyn about the “everything 1st theory”…McCarver annoys me, but I have to agree completely there.

    My thinking is the 2 most important areas in your lineup are the top and the middle.

    The top of the lineup (first 2) has a responsibility to 1. Get on base, and 2. score as many runs as possible…1st inning preferable.

    Furcal, when healthy, is one of the best leadoff hitters in the business…the definition of a sparkplug. I think Belliard is well suited to #2, he has good bat control and usually makes contact (average of only 62 K per year in career). Plus he has a little pop in his bat.

    The middle has one…and only one task, in my opinion. DRIVE IN RUNS. Period.

    With Kemp, Ethier, Manny & Loney as the 3/4/5/6 hitters in that order, there is one huge advantage…the lefty/righty combo. How are you going to use your bullpen in late inning situations to pitch to these 4 run producers in this order? Kemp and Ethier are peaking. Manny, and I appreciate his ability, is not peaking. Loney just consistently drives in runs.

    Following up with Blake, Martin (who is more important to me defensively), DeWitt and whoever else bats 8th this year is all gravy to me.

    And yes Scoop I’m an optimist…but can you honestly say those stats are unrealistic? I look forward to a huge year and the offense will be the catalyst to our success. Not overlooking the importance of pitching…just seeing, understanding and appreciating our strengths.

    Keep up the great posts guys.

  29. Roger Dodger says:

    Steeve 17 so you basically agree with my #2 hitter . . . Belly would do fine there. I want a runner on 2nd or 3rd with the 3/4/5 hitters coming up.

    Dodgers win more games that way.

    I do not want the end of the order with DeWitt, Belly, Ellis, & the pitcher. That could be 4 weak outs in a row.

    QUESTION: are any of the games from the Far East that the Dodgers are playing going to be on TV ????

  30. Scoop says:

    “but can you honestly say those stats are unrealistic?”

    Yes.

    As I have stated, I want my #2 hitter to have great bat control, be able to hit behind the runner, bunt, run, and be able to drive a fastball to the gap, possibly scoring a runner from first. Take a look around the league at the prototypical #2 hitter – and it ain’t a guy 6’2″, 230 pounds, with 450′ power and a nickname like “The Bison”.

    But, you guys have this thing figured out. The Dodgers win 100+ and cruise to the World Series.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. [...] View full post on LADodgerTalk.com – Get Your Daily Dodger Juice, Dodger News and Dodger Rumors [...]


Mandatory Daily Dodger Reading