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What Next Year Could Bring

What Next Year Could Bring

Here’s what I see with our offense for next season:kemp-loney

  1. Furcal  SS -  Raffy rebounds (it is an “even” year) and has his career year with a .303 BA, .381 OB% and 126 Runs Scored, even though he only steels 26 bases
  2. Martin C- Perfect #2 hitter rebounds with a .279 BA to go with .388 OB%
  3. Loney 1B – Breakout year at 1B with 22 HR. 106 RBI and a .316 BA
  4. Kemp CF – Monster year with MVP like numbers - .312 BA, 38 HR and 119 RBI
  5. Manny LF – Continues to be a very good player, not not “elite-class” – .299 BA, 27 HR, 96 RBI
  6. Ethier RF – A nice year, but not quite as good as 2009 – .274 BA 27 HR and 93 RBI
  7. Blake 3B – Solid, but not great with a .267 BA, 18 HR and 78 RBI
  8. DeWitt 2B – Nice year with a .258 BA to go with 19 HR and 67 RBI

It’s rare when most players on a team have good years, but I think the numbers I have assigned each player are certainly within their capability!

Feel free to agree… or not!

I also think Doug Mientkiewicz and Jamey Carroll will make a nice L-R pinch-hitting tandem, although neither has much power.  Angel Berroa is insurance in case the Reds wanted Hu in the alleged Harang deal, which is near dead according to Dylan Hernandez of The LA Times.  In the same article he quotes Ned Colletti as saying that Jon Link (acquired in the Pierre deal) is the closest to major league ready:

Of the two pitchers the Dodgers acquired from the Chicago White Sox to complete the Juan Pierre trade, Colletti said 25-year-old reliever Jon Link was the closest to being major-league-ready.

“He has a chance to be on our club this year,” he said.

Link saved 13 games and had a 3.99 earned-run average in 48 relief appearances for triple-A Charlotte last season. The Dodgers also received John Ely in the deal. Ely, 23, was 14-2 with a 2.82 ERA for double-A Birmingham last season.

Colletti said the Dodgers remain interested in re-signing backup catcher Brad Ausmus, but if they fail to do so, they would feel comfortable with A.J. Ellis in that role.

ADRIAN BELTRE

I was asked about Adrian Beltre yesterday on the other thread and while I do not think it is likely the Dodgers will sign him, I think he would be a huge upgrade at 3B.  First, let’s compare stats:

Player

BA

Slg

SB

2B

3B

HR

RBI

Gold Glve

Age

Beltre

.270

.453

11

34

3

24

87

2

30

Blake

.266

.450

5

35

2

22

81

0

36

These stats are based upon playing 162 games a year.  At age 36, Casey Blake has 6.5 years of major league service.  Adrian Beltre at age 30 has 10.3 years of major league experience.  Adrian had some serious injuries last year, but at age 30, should be in his prime.  We have to expect a decline for Blake at as 36.  Beltre is a huge defensive upgrade at 3B (Blake was a surprise there last year, however).  

However, the main reason I want Beltre is “JUST A GUT FEELING THAT A RETURN TO THE DODGERS WOULD CATAPULT HIM TO AN ALL-STAR YEAR!”  

Totally rational!

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

26 Responses to “What Next Year Could Bring”

  1. Badger says:

    Wow. I am not sure how to respond to these projections. So let me just sum it up this way – wow.

    You got some blue glasses my friend.

    I think I agree with you about Beltre. If it weren’t for the fact he has Bora$$ for an agent and will be demanding ridiculous money, I would rather take a shot with him than have another year of an aging Blake. Or, how about LaRoche? Nevermind.

    From the Hernandez piece:

    “I would rather use any money we have on pitching, if we can.”

    That’s our GM filling us with confidence.

    So, for Pierre, Jon Link and John Ely. I posted Link’s stats yesterday. Will he contribute anything? He’s a maybe. Ely is a 23 year old A league player. Yeah, ok. Thanks for your service Juan, hope you have a better reception in Chicago.

  2. Roger Dodger says:

    Folks, I was not looking at costs on Beltre —- just that I like Beltre. He is of of the best fielding third basemen in baseball today. Vinny has said many times on the air, that Beltre is the best he has ever seen fielding the swinging bunt at 3b.

    I think Beltre can put up some nice numbers in Dodger Stadium.

    Just my wish. I believe he really did not want to leave L.A.; a bunch of mis-communication back in those days. But that is old news now.

    If Boston were to finally get rid of Lowell, Beltre would be a great fit in Boston.

  3. Jamie's Lovechild says:

    Badger makes a good point, just look at the way Ned answered the question, “I would rather use any money we have on pitching, if we can.”

    Are you kidding me, it sounds like a parent telling the child that we will absolutely go to Disneyland, IF we can afford it.

    As I have said all along, THE DODGERS ARE STANDING PAT, don’t look for any exciting acquisitions, get ready for a load of Carroll type signings. I hate being the “SF Giants South”.

    Mommy, please tell your husband to sell the team.

  4. Roger Dodger says:

    No, but Harry the Hammer can tell her.

  5. train says:

    Love your forecast for the hitters! What think you of our pitching, and your thots on Haeger,Elbert, and McDonald. Could this be their year ?

  6. Mark Timmons says:

    I’ll forcast the pitching later this week.

    I know some of you think that is wildy optomistic, but I believe that all of the players mentioned can put those numbers up. For example, Martin and Furcal have already put up those numbers in that past. It would be a better year for Loney, but it’s no stretch that he could do that. I didn’t forcast an outlandish year for Ethier or Manny, but I did for Matt Kemp – however I think he’s ready.

    Blake and DeWitt? Just average years.

    However, with this production, the team should be very good offensively.

  7. Ken says:

    Mark – I like your lineup but:

    1. Raffy – Only if he cuts down on his attempts to hit HRs.
    2. Martin – Skeet shooter will be the WORST #2 hitter in baseball as long as he trys to PULL every pitch while always turning his body first instead of moving his hands thus slowing down his bat, shortening his bat, and making him subconciously swing harder. Where is the private batting coach, sports pyschologist and hypnotist when he needs one. And MLB needs to approve his use of Adderall.
    3. Loney – I always hoped that he would be a #3 hitter but as soon as Bigfoot starts hitting into double plays every other day he will be demoted to the #7 spot in the order.
    4. Kemp – Possible. Needs to work on eye exercises for depth perception or he will become Mike Davis by age 32.
    5. Manny – Probable. Unless he stays with the Martin’s batting approach that he picked up after getting hit in the hand last year.
    6. Ethier – Probable. Needs to spend the off season hitting against LHP or he will regress.
    7. Blake – Probable but he will need to be platooned due to age. It is amazing how lengthening his timing hitch by .10 seconds actually slows his bat down by .25 seconds.
    8. DeWitt – Not Likely. If he trys to hit that many HRs he will hit .200.

    Too many of these Dodgers regress in one skill area when they work on their deficiencies. Who is responsbile for player development at the MLB level?

    But none of that really matters unless the Dodgers obtain a good #4 starter.

    The Pierre trade gives the Dodgers a much needed young player in AAA and an advanced AA player who can now be utilized as trade bait, along with other lower level prospects, for a #4 starter.

  8. Badger says:

    I agree with Ken about Martin in the two hole. The ideal #2 hitter is left handed with speed.

    Giants south. That’s it lovechild. Sabean signings. It’s who we will be for about two years.

  9. Ken says:

    Here are some Dodger draft picks who will hopefully be called up by 2015 to make the lineup card more interesting:

    Rubby De La Rosa
    Beyker Fructosco
    Rafael Ynoa
    Stetson Banks
    Taiwan Perry
    Marlon Urriola
    Keyter Collado

  10. Badger says:

    You left off Morgan Livermoose, Bolivar Shagnasty and Craven Morehead.

  11. Bill Russell says:

    I agree with pretty much everything Roger and Badger have been saying- exception LaRoche- nevermind.

    I hung my LA Dodger stocking over the fireplace a few days ago. I expect to receive a little more then the Dodgers do this Christmas. Probably some See’s candy, lifesavors and M&M’s. Maybe a puzzlebook/sudoku book if I’m lucky and new socks. We got Jamie Xmas Carroll. That tips the scale to my stocking.

    I won’t even start to predict what the Dodger stats will be this year but with much less pitching , less at 2nd baseman and less bench help, the stats will have to double in order to contend. 2010 is going to be a very long year for us.

  12. Bill Russell says:

    Is Blue Haze missing this year or did he change his sign on name? Jamies Lovebaby maybe? I’ve never seen Haze and the lovebaby at the same party together………….

  13. DRomo says:

    Mark were those Beltre numbers prorated numbers? I deal with the facts. I could have projected Jason Schmidts numbers too I supose! I said it before, we will get close to the same production out of Blake for 1/2 the cost.

  14. mark says:

    Romo,

    Those were Blake’s and Beltre’s numbers based upon a 162 game season.

    At age 30, Adrian Beltre has 250 HR and 906 RBI. At age 36, Casey Blake has 146 HR and 525 RBI.

    Which one can keep it up – the 30 year old or the 36 year old?

  15. mark says:

    Badger,

    I lost your e-mail. Would you e-mail or call me tomorrow or tonight, for that matter?

  16. mark says:

    Romo,

    Casey Blake had a good year last year, but I think we shall see a decline – I hope I am wrong.

    The only way we get Beltre is if we steal him. The BoxSox look to be stuck with Lowell and Philly signed a 3B, so that leaves the Giants, Angels and Dodgers. I would hate to see him go to either team. If he went to the Giants, he would beat us like rented mules!

  17. Ken says:

    Looks like the Angels are going cheap this off season. If the Dodgers can just sign a good #4 starter they might just be as good or better than the Angels next year. Maybe Franks’ real goal is not the win the World Series but to just go farther than the Angels in the playoffs each year??

  18. Ken says:

    Roger

    In response to your post the other day about finances – The LA Dodgers are owned by Los Angeles Dodgers, LLC which is a “pass-through” entity that is taxed similar to a partnership. As a Limited Liability Company it can pay its owners salaries and/or distributions. First the LLC should pay its owners reasonable compensation in the form of salary and benefits. Then if there are sufficient profits avaiable then some or all of the profits can be paid out as distributions, which must be pro rata to each owner (“Member”). This is why Frank does not want Jamie to be deemed to be an owner/Member. However, the amount of compensation/distributions available is not only limited by the amount of profit or taxable income, but it is also limited by the available cash flow and the company’s creaditors by “loan covenants”. Frank has stated that Bank of America has limited his distributions to $5,000,000 per year. (Too bad Jamie) I doubt that $5 mil is enough to pay for Frank and Beans lifestyles, their mortgages and their attorney fees. If Franks was truthful in his statement that loan covenants limit the amount of his distributions, then should not we be seeing more Dodger activity on the free market this off season. There certainly are additional loan covenants that relate to other financial issues in order to reduce the risk of the lenders. They may include gross profit percentage, when distributions can be made, ability to borrow additonal funds, Loan to Value ratio, etc. Hopefully there are no balloon payments on the debt in 2010 and that the Dodgers will be able to obtain a few more players.

    LOS ANGELES DODGERS LLC A Delaware entity formed 10/3/2003) filed in California 1/30/2004 It has a Boston, MA address

    LOS ANGELES DODGERS HOLDING COMPANY LLC (A Delaware entity formed 4/8/2005) filed in California 4/12/2005 it has a Los Angeles address

  19. DRomo says:

    Mark, Please look at Beltre’s career stats. He had 1 monster year when he was likely juicing like his teamates in a contract year. Blake is slow and steady. NOT a superstar, yet has very similar numbers and better in certain categories like OPS & OBP that some of you guys love so much. And it wasn’t just this year. Here it is read it and weep.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blakeca01.shtml?redir

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml

  20. New guy says:

    Dont care about numbers…all I care is about World Series…

  21. Mark Timmons says:

    I say you have to LOOK PAST the numbers of Beltre. When he left LA, he was 25 years old and just entering his best years. In fact, he just had his BEST YEAR (He has never been linked to steroids, but whatever). He then goes to Seattle, but still lives in LA and misses LA a lot. He plays in a park that is not power-hitter friendly for the most part and he absolutely HATES the stadium.

    I look past the numbers and see a 30 year old Gold Glover with excellent speed and believe he’s a player who would hit 30 HR while batting .280-.290. Just my opinion from watching him over the years.

  22. Badger says:

    I agree with mover on Beltre. I do believe Beltre would have better numbers back in L.A., would fit nicely in our lineup and would be a defensive improvement over Blake. However, I don’t believe he would be worth the money Borass will get for him, and we all know him, he will get it somewhere. And in addition to that, I just don’t see how we could sell Blake. He has two years left on his contract, and he isn’t DH material – where would he go without costing us more deferred money? I am afraid he is ours. I just hope he can stay on the field and do what he did last year. Except for the disappearing act in the NLCS. I don’t want to see that again.

    Ken, why wouldn’t the Dodgers want to be an S corporation? LLC seems a little weak for a potential billion dollar enterprise. I don’t know that much about it, but I was an LLC back in Wisconsin, we had a partnership fallout, and one of the partners stole 70 grand from us, after reading the LLC papers, my lawyer said if we had been an S corporation, he could have protected the assets better. It went to arbitration and believe me, you don’t ever want that to happen.

    I’ll email you today Mark. We are heading for Denver tomorrow and will be tied up all day getting organized.

  23. Bill Russell says:

    Unless Beltre becomes a pitcher, he’s not on the Dodgers radar. We have a very limited budget and 3rd base isn’t a priority in my book or anyones book that doesn’t have wood for this guy. If we were to worry about Ethier not hitting Lefties and replacing Blake as our priorities, then we would be stepping backwards next year.

  24. DRomo says:

    well put BRuss!

  25. GB Girl! says:

    I think your numbers for the blue crew sound good! Those that bleed Dodger blue are hoping for a great year from all!

  26. Table says:

    I agree with all except Furcal. I think you forgot to look up his stats. He has a career .350 on base%, so .381 seems unrealistic. A good lead off hitter should have a .381, but even in Furcal’s best season as a Dodger his on base was just 369.

    I also wonder what sort of power Martin will have in 10.

    Until Loney shows he can put up the numbers you predict, I like the lineup better with the three outfielders batting in some form of 3,4,5, and Loney 6.

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