Categorized | Mark Timmons

Let’s Get Creative

Let’s Get Creative

Just in case you haven’t figured it out, attendance at Dodger Stadium is not the only source of income for the Dodgers.  While their have attendance has been stellar,

Hu's on the team

Hu's on the team

 most other teams  have seen substantial declines in attendance, which means that the Dodgers get a smaller cut of the gate and concessions.  It is not clear what the amount of the decline is to me, but I estimate it at around $15 to $20 million a year.  Couple that with MLB Apparel and Memorabilia sales declines and the Dodgers could be losing as much as $20 to $25 million a year in revenue as a result of the recession.  It may get better next year.  It may not.  Some teams (can you say Cincinnati Reds?) are looking to dump payroll.  The Dodgers are looking to stay level or even drop payroll.  I have an idea:

How about Juan Pierre, James McDonald, Ivan DeJesus, Jr., and Blake DeWitt to the Reds for either Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips?  Up-shoot:  The Reds save $10 mil a year and get some prospects (along with a  leadoff hitter – Dusty Baker loves Pierre) and the Dodgers spend only an extra $10 mil to get an “inning eater” pitcher and a 2B.  Next, the Dodgers should offer Hudson and Wolf arbitration, making it clear to Hudson that Phillips is the 2B, and if he won his arbitration case he’d be a backup.  Hudson would decline arbitration, but Wolf could accept.  That’s fine!

Dole out the raises to the youngsters and the Dodgers are done!  Our rotation would look something like this:

  1. Kershaw
  2. Billingsley
  3. Kuroda
  4. Arroyo/Harang
  5. Wolf or Heager

Lineup:

  1. Furcal  SS
  2. Martin  C
  3. Kemp  CF
  4. Manny  LF
  5. Ethier  RF
  6. Phillips  2B
  7. Loney  1B
  8. Blake 3B

I could live with that!  Harang makes $11.5 mil next year and Arroyo makes $11 mil, so pick ‘em.  You never know – they could be a dud or they could be a Godsend!  Sometimes you have to roll the dice.  Castro is headed to Philly and Hu is the logical backup infielder.  Xavier Paul, Jason Repko and Jamie Hoffman are candidates for two outfield spots.  Ausmus may or may not play for a million next year, but if he doesn’t Ellis or another bargain Free Agent will be available. 

The Dodgers should be able to field an excellent team for under (or around) $100 million.  Harang and Arroyo’s average years are not what I expect.  I would hope for a “carrer year” for whichever one come to LA.  You gotta’ believe!  The “kids” will be year better next and Martin and Loney will “breakout.”  Believe it!

GoodNews/BadNews:

  • Bud Selig will be commissioner at least 3 more seasons.
  • The Marlins are shopping Josh Johnson… Hummmmmm, I may have to revise my thinking…

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

24 Responses to “Let’s Get Creative”

  1. A Shot of Haeger says:

    I don’t hate that deal or that idea

  2. Harold says:

    I had read that the Dodgers might try to trade JP for a back of the rotation guy pitcher just to have a player who is at least playing for $10M. Maybe that would be Arroyo or Harang.I like Brandon Phillips and read they are willing to move him. If McDonald, DeJesus and Dewitt would bring him on board, go for it. Offer one more if necessary.

    Josh Johnson is more intriguing but no doubt not a possibility. He has two years of arbitration and then free agency. Not sure we can handle that. I think we have the players to acquire him but maybe not the dollars. I doubt JP would be taken on by Florida unless we went bigger and included Uggla somehow. I like Phillips moreso than Uggla as a better overall player. He has a very good glove, good speed and average power.

    GO DODGERS!!

  3. Badger says:

    “Dole out the raises to the youngsters and the Dodgers are done!”

    Where have I heard that before? Oh yeah.

    “the Dodgers could be losing as much as $20 to $25 million a year in revenue as a result of the recession.” – where do you get these numbers? I can’t find anything anywhere that has 2009 figures because 2009 isn’t over yet. According to Forbes, the Dodgers value went up 4% in 2008. “The Dodgers have turned double-digit losses under Fox into double-digit profits under the McCourts”. According to Forbes, in an article from April the Dodgers are still one of the most valuable franchises in the game:

    http://www.forbes.com/2009/04/22/yankees-mets-baseball-values-09-business-sports-land.html

    And check this out, the Dodgers wasted no time in hiring a big time ad agency and they are currently lining up corporate sponsorships for the ballpark. Corporations are whores, they will suck this opportunity up.

    http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117993961.html?categoryid=18&cs=1

    The Dodgers are making money. The McCourt’s have nearly doubled their investment in the years they have owned the team. People are still coming to the park (ask Mark, it cost him 100 push-ups) and last year they shaved payroll so any losses that might have happened with anticipated fan withdrawel were covered early. Then, they made the play-offs so add that dough to the coffers.

    Make no mistake, the Dodgers themselves are healthy. What is not healthy is the ownership.

    I am still holding my breath. We won’t know anything for a while.

  4. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Mark,

    Are you sure that the the visiting team shares in the attendance/concessions proceeds? It’s been my understanding that that system has not been in place for several years, and that teams now keep 100% of what they earn at home, sharing nothing from the teams they visit. And if you think about it, that would be better for the Dodgers, who would keep 100% of their increase in attendance.

    And of course, it’s not just raw attendance that counts. The Yankees/Mets and probably other teams, drew less than the Dodgers in 2009, but charged higher ticket/concession prices. There are teams who may have lower attendance figures, but higher revenues. And we also know that there are other sources of revenue beyond just attendance/concessions.

    Your trade proposal is intriguing, and if it could be done I would probably pull the trigger. One exception, however. Harang appears as if he might be on the decline. I would probably make the deal if Arroyo was included, but would not if it was Harang.

  5. Mark Timmons says:

    Prior to the 1995 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), however, only a small part of local revenues were shared across teams. Revenue sharing was limited to gate revenues, with the American League following what was known as the “80/20 Plan” under which 20% of gate revenues were shared across teams, and the National League sharing only 5% of gate revenues. The 1995 agreement resulted in 17% of all local revenues being shared including, for the first time, local broadcasting revenues. The 2002 CBA increased the sharing of local revenues to 34%, and added a luxury tax for teams whose payrolls exceeded a specified threshold. Not surprisingly, the owners of the large-market teams are unhappy with these cross-subsidies and have tried to relocate, or even eliminate, some of the lower-revenue teams.

    From:
    http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa5421/is_4_73/ai_n29344694/

  6. Mark Timmons says:

    Here’s an article from Forbes that sheds some insight into what I am saying:

    http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/22/baseballs-most-valuable-fans-business-sports-top-fans.html

    Especially this:

    A look at the top-ranked Giants’ $78 revenue per fan reflects just how juiced Bay Area fans are to see their team, regardless of its last few lackluster seasons. In comparison, the Dodgers, who made it to the National League Championship Series last season, only generated $38 in revenue per fan.

    WOW! That’s a big disparity!

  7. Mark Timmons says:

    Brooklyn,

    The stats seem to indicate that Arroyo is better than Harang, but I think that with Arroyo, what you see is what you get: a number 4 starter.

    With Harang, even though his stats have looked worse since 2006, he has a huge upside and by getting a fresh start, this is a guy who has ACE STUFF! Forget the stats…

  8. Mark Timmons says:

    In other words, both are #4 or #5, but Harang could be a steal… or a bust!

  9. SpokaneBob says:

    Mark, whats wrong with offering Orlando arbitration and letting him play 2nd if he takes it? Arbitration has to be offered by December 7th, when the winter meetings start. How long do players have to decide to accept or reject?

  10. Mark Timmons says:

    SpokeBob,

    There’s nothing wrong with it, but I’d like to see more power at 2B, thus Phillips.

  11. Mark Timmons says:

    I don’t have a lot of time to research it, but if the Giants revenue per fan is $78 and ours is $38, that means we make $120,000,000 less than they would if they drew 3,000,000 fans. Am I correct in assuming that? That seems way too high, but it makes my $25 million estimate look like “chump change.”

    Speak!

  12. Badger says:

    I think you should re-read the article Mark.

    “We divided local revenue of each team (including such sources as local television and radio revenue, gate receipts and sponsorships) for the 2008 season by the population of its metropolitan area, according to the 2008 U.S. Census Bureau estimate. The resulting revenue-per-fan figure is a rough yardstick of a team’s ability to capitalize on its fan base, regardless of market size.”

    They aren’t talking real dollars here. They are talking dollar per population of people who live in the market.

    You can twist numbers until the sun comes up in the west, the simple truth is the Dodgers are one of the top revenue teams in MLB. When that cable deal hits, it would take a complete idiot to f it up.

    And that is precisely why it is time for the McClowns to disappear.

  13. lawdog says:

    So the Giant fans swill a lot more beer than the families that come to the Dodger games…

    Anyone who’s attended games at both parks could have told you that! :roll:

    Is it official yet? Will they change the name of Dodger Stadium to Shell Park or Safeway Stadium? Maybe Farmer John’s tasting field? For the eastern most in lack of quality, but the western most in bad taste? ;)

  14. lawdog says:

    Maybe have a photo of Manny mooning the camera flying with that ball over the centerfield edge of the stadium?

  15. Badger says:

    The stadium remains the same. It will be Gatorade Alleys, one bullpen brought to you by Cargill, the other by Geico, dugouts will have names on them, foul poles will have “eat mor chikin” painted on them, home plate brought to you by Dennys, and the electric messaging ribbon that goes around the middle decks and the scoreboard will have one ad after another flashed up on it – check this out:

    “The new generation of electronic sign technologies hanging among stadium walls and halls, includes everything from large format LED screens on scoreboards and stadium facia walls to the smaller indoor LCD and plasma screens that fill out food courts, concession and ticket booth gathering places throughout the sporting venue.

    The additional presence of electronic stadium and arena advertising has developed a new layered approach between the traditional signage of banners and posters and the newer 21st century look of electronic “changeable message systems” now being put in place. Two sport media companies, ANC Sports and Arena Media Network, each representing a unique approach to EDS signage talked about “covering the bases” with their variations electronic sign systems and how they serve advertisers in having opportunities to reach the fans.”

    http://www.signindustry.com/electronic/articles/2005-03-01-LBStadiumSignage.php3

    It’s a new ballgame folks, and if there is one thing the McJamies might be good at it is selling ad space at Chavez Ravine. Fans will be bombarded with images starting as soon as you enter the parking lot and lasting until you pull away from the stadium.

  16. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Last day to offer arbitration is December 1st (this Tuesday). December 7th is the last day the player has to accept the offer.

    I’m not sure Phillips adds much more HR power after he gets out of the Cincinnati bandbox. But maybe he produces a greater number of extra base hits in the more spacious Dodger Stadium. And hopefully, playing in a more spacious park, and playing for a contender, makes him appreciate the need to get on base more often (.312 career OBP). As good as Hudson was defensively, Phillips is probably an upgrade, and he does have more speed.

  17. SpokaneBob says:

    They won’t be showing many of those ads on direct tv,so maybe there is a trade off here. I haven’t said much about Frank and Jamie, I find it kind of boring and am content to just let it play out. I agree with those here who think it won’t have much of an effect on how the teams business is carried out.

    I really like Orlando and thought he got a raw deal in the post season. Inspite of his words he may not want to stay, but I think its a win win situation to offer him arbitration. We will soon know.

  18. lawdog says:

    The Dogs should offer arbitration to both O-rod and Wolfman. If they accept, they get two very good pieces to their 2010 puzzle for one year. If they refuse, they get two additional #1 draft picks to restock the cupboard which has been getting depleted by all the late geezer rentals around the last week of ASugust the Frankie and Ned seem to fancy.

    Will they?

    Smart money sez “nope” because top draft picks are expensive to sign, and statistically probably don’t pan out to be that much better in the long run than #2-#5 picks. It’s pretty much a crap shoot–or at least Beans and Franks will be looking at it that way. Those signing bonuses for high draft picks would pay for a lot of lawyer time in the upcoming disaster known as the “divorce”. You can bank on the split ruining the team we all have come to love over the years.

  19. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    L-Dog definitely has a point about #1 picks being expensive to sign, and the likely unwillingness of ownership being willing to fork over the money. It’s something I have thought about too, especially since they let a top professional prospect (Carlos Santana) go to the Indians in lieu of having to pay Casey Blake $2 million for the remainder of the 2008 season. In fact, not only do Type A free agents bring a #1 (except when the signing team picks in the top half of the draft, in which cases it’s a #2), but they also bring a sandwich pick, which in itself is not inexpensive.

    I don’t expect much to happen until next week, given that December 7th marks not only the date on which players offered salary arbitration have to accept or reject the offer, but it is also the date on which the Winter Meetings open in Indianapolis.

  20. A Shot of Haeger says:

    “You can bank on the split ruining the team we all have come to love over the years.”

    I’ll take that bet as soon as you define the definition of ruining the team. This team won’t be ruined, it’ll be just fine…. if they can’t make any substantial moves, well I guess than the players we do have will have to step up and I believe we can do it.

    Think positive lawdog, the reality is…. you may be right, but you also could be wrong as well…. with all the crap that’s going on outside the stadium, once any team steps on the diamond, anything can happen…. unless you’re a Royal or a Pirate, then you’re screwed.

  21. Badger says:

    OF COURSE the Dodgers should offer arbitration to both Hudson and Wolf. That is actually a no brainer.

    But then, no brainer is exactly who we have at the top of this organization. And if arbitration is not offered, when everybody above the 4th grade can see it is the smart thing to do, isn’t that a first step in the wrong direction?

  22. DRomo says:

    I like “The Mark Plan” I don’t know that it will happen but I like it.

    Word on the street is Marco Scutaro is on the radar. I know if you look at his numbers alone he isn’t that impressive but if you have ever seen him play this guy is solid. It might be a steal.

    Question for the group: Has anyone heard anything about Lambo seeing time at 1B? He had a little work ther in the past. I wouldn’t mind seeing him get more playing time there and if Loney doesn’t increase productivity we will have an option there. In NO Way do I want to break up Kemp/Ethier to make room for anyone for the next 5 years.

  23. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I don’t think there is a need for Lambo to play first base. He was signed as first baseman, and probably would have little difficulty moving back there. For now he’s blocked at that position, and probably needs all the reps he can get in the outfield. He likely won’t be ready until 2011 at the earliest. There’s plenty of time to shift him back to first if the need should ever materialize.

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