Categorized | Mark Timmons

What Now? Don’t See What IS, See What CAN Be!

What Now?  Don’t See What IS, See What CAN Be!

People DodgersLook, several (many) players let us down, but that’s the nature of playoff baseball.  Look at A-Rod, and how he failed his first few years in the playoffs.  Players handle the situation differently.  Some step up (Loney, Martin) and others struggle (Kemp, Ethier), while some vets disapear (Blake, Furcal), which is very, very disappointing.  Casey Blake and Rafael Furcal could have made all the difference. They did hit .279 (combined).  They are both seasoned vets and both could not buy a hit.  That was huge.  Manny wasn’t Manny, and likely never will be again.  I TOLD YOU AND TOLD THAT YOU WE SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNED HIM!  Never doubt me again.   I see some players as “keeper” and others as “trade bait.”  Manny can never take over a game like he used to.  That’s history!

It hurts to see that Victorino and Werth, both former Dodgers hurt us badly, but both players are 30 years old (Victorino is actually close) and you can’t keep a player forever.  Werth was constantly hurt as a Dodger, and Victorino wasn’t all that then.  They are “all that” now!  Good for them, but it took years.  Our guys are mid-20′s.  There’s plenty of time.   

I’m rooting for the Phillies in  the World Series.   I love the Phillies.

If Ethier and Kemp are back in the playoffs next year – look for a different result.  Martin will come back with a vengeance and Kershaw and Billingsley will be a year smarter.  Young Clayton got “schooled” in this series.  Don’t hold your breath waiting for it to happen again.   Chad Billingsley will win 20 next year.  Book it!

Ned Colletti is a big boy and will do what he wants this winter.  The Free Agent market is not the way to do it.  A lot of you thought Casey Blake and Orlando Hudson would be the “bomb” but one lost his job to a journeyman and the other was AWOL in the playoffs.  Ned will do what he wants, but here’s what I would do:

  1. Find a AL home for Manny - I am SOOOOOOOOOOO done with him.  Frank may have to pay $5-$10 million, but just get it over with.  I don’t see the shower issue as a big deal – I see “declining skills due to lack of steroids” as being the main issue.  Manny is a  20 HR/.280 hitter now.  Forget it!  He may have to be packaged with another player,  How about Manny, Hu , Broxton (yeah, I’ll do that)  and Elbert to Toronto for Halladay and Wells?  Maybe Manny will do better as a DH.  Wells is a bad contract for Toronto and I’m sure they want to unload it.  He might benefit immensely by changing teams.  Hu could see time at SS for Toronto and Elbert gives them another young arm.  Look, you can disagree about Broxton, but I am consistent – I have been saying that he’ll never be a closer for three years.  Who will close for us?  Two words:  Josh Lindblom!
  2. Trade Juan Pierre- Somebody needs a lead-off hitter.  Get a prospect.  Get whatever.  Just trade him.  Look, I like Juan Pierre but he’s too expensive to sit on the bench and the guy deserves to start.  He’s a class act!  Pick a 4th outfielder:  Xavier Paul, Jason Repko, Jamie Hoffman (Lambo is less than a year away).
  3. Free Agents Who Walk- Belliard (too fat, bad defense), Hudson  (I like him, but he’s injury-prone and will be too expensive), Garland (too expensive – we can do better with Haeger as a #5) and Thome, Loretta, Padilla and Ausmus (unless he wants to coach), .
  4. Free Agents who stay – Wolf (he’s a Type A Free agent so offer him arbitration and see what happens – worst case – we have him for another year or we get 2 picks.
  5. In a perfect world, I would love to resign Adrian Beltre and trade Casey Blake.   Then I’d play Blake DeWitt at 2B. 

Rotation:

  1. Halladay
  2. Kershaw
  3. Billingsley
  4. Wolf
  5. Haeger/Kuroda

Look, feel free to disagree with me, but when you insult me or try and convince me with statistics which WILL NEVER capture the power of the human spirit, you are showing you have no connection with reality.  I suggest Fantasy Baseball.  That’s the ticket!  You little cowards who want to fire your “drive-by shootings” at me (you know who you are) wouldn’t last a minute in a face-to-face debate, so can it!  Disagree all you want, but if you become disagreeable, it’s on!  You cowards who hide behind your keyboards won’t win.  As a matter of fact, you are losers, which is why you take such offense when I call JB that!  What I just wrote is extreme and probably never will happen, but I do think that this years Dodger team has amazing talent, more than the Phillies, but they delivered and we didn’t!   Do we need a change of direction in the organization?    Maddux would make me happy!  Let Don Mattingly take the Cleveland job and take Honeycutt with him.  Then Kirk Gibson can replace Torre!  Shoot, if Jim Tracy can manage, the so can Kirk Gibson. 

You have to look at Torre and Manual.  Charlie has fire.  Torre has ice.  The fire burned the ice!  Get a clue!

The first order of business is What Happens to the Dodgers?  What is the deal with Jamie and Frank?  Anyone who analyzes the situation is a Jackass – this is a crapshoot and no one knows what is next or what the outcome wil be.  Just hurry up and get it done…

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

41 Responses to “What Now? Don’t See What IS, See What CAN Be!”

  1. GoNzO says:

    Charlie Manuel has always been my favorite manager/coach. This is an old school guy who has half the charisma Torre has with players but is the BEST manager in MLB in my opinion. My favorite Manuel moment when he benched the reigning MVP for not running hard to first on a pop up. He’s got balls.

  2. Jason davis says:

    We need too many thing. All we can do is pray we sign studs and not duds

  3. Ken says:

    Wow. Accept for the hair color they kind of look like brother and sister.

    Mark – Are your moves based upon making the team better or based in pragmatism required in the current divorce court environment?

    I am ok with the Dodgers retooling with a younger and cheaper team.

    In today’s economy some of the free agents should consider taking a big pay cut. Maybe the Dodgers will receive a government bailout during the divorce proceedings and then the Federal Pay Czar can cut all of the overpaid player salaries including Manny, Furcal, Garland, Padilla, Kuroda, Hudson, Blake, Pierre, Jones, etc. Maybe the minimum MLB salary should be cut to the level of the President’s salary. I doubt that many rookies have had a better year than any President. Maybe if the Pay Czar can mandate performance based salaries for executives then he mandate the same performance based salaries for baseball players. Each year the players will be paid what they are worth. What a novel concept for the players union and collective bargaining. Maybe, maybe not.

  4. KidCuba says:

    Haven’t visited this site since the Tony Jackson experiment evaporated. Got to say I agree with a lot of what you you mentioned in your to do list.

    The love affair with Manny is over, much like the McCourt nuptials. Boras sticks it to us again, because if it isn’t for some unforeseen miracle, we’re stuck with the dreadful-locks. I seriously doubt any team, in either league, would roll the dice on him, especially for $20 mill.

    Those who are packing bags:
    Hudson- He’s going to garner a better deal than a one year incentive laden contract. It ain’t gonna be from us.
    Thome- Needs to return to the AL so he can DH his way to 600 bombs.
    Loretta and Ausmus- Expendable

    Maybe we should think about keeping:
    Padilla- When he’s on, he’s nasty….or was he this year’s version of last year’s Manny? Might be able to get him on the cheap, but I don’t give him more than a 2 yr deal.
    Garland- As far as I know he’s got a mutual option. I like his ability to eat lots of innings, something our ’09 rotation didn’t do very well/often.
    Wolf- I think he is a quality #3 or #4 starter who may be willing to give us a home town discount for a 3 yr deal.

    I would love to unload Broxton, aka Baby Huey. His lack of intestinal fortitude is alarming.

    Speaking of lacking intestinal fortitude, Chud Billingsley is a card carrying member of the club. I package him, Martin, and 2 or 3 more stiffs a la Hu, DeWitt, Elbert, Stults, for Halladay in a heart beat.

    Speaking of DeWitt, I am alarmed as to why he couldn’t hit in ABQ. Red flag or what? I’d rather have Belliard and his gut, or maybe even settle for a platoon with DeWitt at 2B.

    Forget about Beltre… we’re stuck with Fozzy Bear at 3rd.

    I love Donnie Baseball. If I’m the GM I announce tomorrow that when the nose decides to take his Green Tea back to NYC he takes the throne immediately…. write it into his contract Ned! He allows the club to retain credibility at the manager’s position and is admired by the players.

    Pierre does deserve to play everyday. If a club is willing to take on his contract I unload him too.

    My rotation:
    Halladay… it’s okay to dream
    Kershaw
    Padilla
    Wolf
    Kuroda

    My fear now is that divorce court will preclude us from making the team better. Something tells me it’s going to drag on for quite a while. War of the Rose’s comes to 1000 Elysian Park Avenue.

  5. Mark Timmons says:

    Kid,

    Good comment. I am not down on DeWitt, I just think it’s tough bouncing up and down to AAA 6 or 7 times a year. It’s no excuse, but stuff like that disrupts your whole life and carries over to the field.

    I still think DeWitt is a solid 2B defensively and will hit 20+ bombs (maybe not next year). I am more sold on him now than I was last season.

  6. Al Arnzen, Meridian, ID says:

    Idaho Kid

    This is my first reply ever. I read you every day. I agree with most of what you say Mark. However, I am not happy with Martin as our catcher. I do not know if Martin calls the pitches or if it comes from the dugout. Martin calls 99% fastball when Broxton is pitching. He does not make Broxton work and throw his other pitches. I do not care if you throw 100 MPH, good hitters will hit a fastball. He needs to mix up his pitches. Martin does not make our pitchers work. Trade Martin, Broxton and prospects to Toronto for Halliday. Bring up the catcher from Triple AAA. (Cannot think of his name) Keep Piere, he is better than Manny. Let Manny go.

    I think DeWitt should be our second baseman next year.

    Casey Blake is good in the clubhouse and has another two years on his contract. I would keep him.

    We need a number one pitcher badly and that is why I would trade for Halliday. Starting pitchers for next year.
    Halliday
    Billingsley
    Kershaw
    Kuroda
    Wolf

    We have enough good arms in the bullpen that one of them can be the closer. If Kuo could pitch on back to back days, I would go with him.

    Those are my thoughts for next year.

  7. Badger says:

    Good takes Kid. Fozzy Bear. Love it.

    I keep Broxton. I get rid of Honeycutt. This winter Broxton learns a change-up. If we can get Halladay with Bills, I would do that, otherwise I keep him too. I think if we take on Wells and that contract, it could get done, but it might require Ethier. Are you willing?

    As for taking pay cuts Ken, ain’t gonna happen. This is MLB and has no connection with the real world.

    Mark, have you started your 1,100 yet?

    We are all just going to have to wait for this divorce to take place before we have any idea what the plan for the Dodgers is. Maybe it will be an amiable split. It happens. But, I wouldn’t count on it.

    I am not ok with the Dodgers going on the cheap. Without a cap in this game, we should have the same kind of lineup the Yankees have. We should be able to get a Lee when we need one. We came up short because the Phillies just did it better than we did. The Yankees have the lineup they do because their owner spends his money on the team. We need an owner that has a stable relationship and doesn’t need to make money on the club. I wonder if Broad is still interested.

    I am so disgusted with the Manny thing I don’t know where to begin. I was one that was saying we should sign him for three years. Who knew he would be stupid enough to get caught? I should have but didn’t. Now, we are stuck with an aging usta was who is going to costs us $20 mil. That is more than the entire Phillies outfield PLUS Cliff Lee cost. Ridiculous. Players should have a ‘roid clause in their contracts – get caught, and it will cost you. Yeah, right. Good luck getting that one through the Players Union.

    Let’s encourage the McJamies to get this settlement over with so we know where we stand.

  8. Illini Dodger says:

    What about signing Jason Bay for LF? Isn’t he a free agent? Manny should go. The steroids, or lack thereof, killed him. Trade Juan for prospects. Kemp and Ethier are studs in the making. They are competitors. Wrap ‘em up long-term now. I really like Loney, but he needs to hit more HRs next year. I keep Martin, he’ll be OK. He’s got guts.

    Halladay would be great, but if we can’t get him I keep C-Bills, Garland (Padilla is a time bomb)Wolf, Kershaw and the injury-proof Kuroda. OK, maybe Padilla, just in case Chad doesn’t make the grade. Broxton stays. 100+ mph doesn’t grow on trees, he needs a quality off-speed pitch (Splitter or Change).

  9. Illini Dodger says:

    Mark,

    Can’t live without this blog. Please keep up the great analysis. You’re right more than 70% of the time. Saw that at Baseball-Reference.com!

  10. lawdog says:

    Jeeez…. If Jim Tracy can manage then so can the village idiot…

    We don’t need to trade Broxton and his amazing heat. We just need to get a real pitching coach to teah im to throw a splitter and work on throwing a slider that doesn’t hang. But if he just had the splitter and threw an ocasional two seamer there would not be a better closer now or in the history of the game. It is utterly inconceivable to me that no one has taught him how to throw an effective off speed pitch. Teach him one and he’ll make Gagne in his prime look like a long reliever.

    We need to trade for an ace. Martin can gol–he’s decent defensively but we’ve got two catchers on the farm that are just as good and can hit. Martin can’t hit the ball anymore. And he has value to teams who’s GMs have not been paying attention.

    Let Garland walk. He’s not worth anywhere close to $10 million. Sign Padilla and go get a Halladay.

    Trade Manny and his slow bat to an American League team for a top prospect even if it means paying 10 million of his 20 million dollar salary.

    Sign Bay or Dunn to play left until Lambo is ready.

    Sign Beltre and trade Blake even if we have to eat salary–and fer Heavens sake stop Ned and Fred from signing anymore geezers. This is a young team–not one looking for one last gasp and grab at the brass ring.

  11. GoNzO says:

    We don’t need Halladay. Billingsly, McDonald and high level prospect (Withrow,DeJesus) for Felix Hernandez. SEA is more than likely not going to pay the King. (example Griffey, Arod, Big Unit). If we pay a kings ransom no (pun intended)it might as well be for a young stud on the rise and not one on the decline. We will have to pony up CC type money to keep him which we can afford, MLB will not allow the Dodgers to be in a situation like the Padres, so while Mcourt and and his ex fight it out the Dodgers will continue business as usual.

    If we can’t get Hernandez I say no to Halladay. He is a horse, but an old one. Maybe sign Lackey. Wish list for ’10:
    Hitters
    Aubrey Huff
    Adrian Gonzalez

    Pitchers
    Hernandez
    Lackey
    Rich Harden
    Mike Gonzalez
    Ben Sheets(if healthy)
    Duaner Sanchez
    Brandon Webb
    Randy Wolf

    this are players we should target and early. forget waiting til the end of the last part of FA signing. Remeber people these are just suggestions

  12. Ty says:

    Hey Mark,

    I’m not going to call you crazy because your plan isn’t as bad as some others I’ve read but I’ll pick at of the crazier stuff in your plan.

    I agree on Manny. He’s a .280-20 HR guy now but we only have him for one more year. Isn’t Vernon Wells the same .280-20 HR guy who is locked up for more than one year? Why would want basically the same numbers for a longer time frame? Toronto also wouldn’t want Manny. They don’t have a shot at winning next year so why would they give up Halladay for a one year rental in Manny, a back up SS in Hu, an overrated relief prospect in Elbert and Broxton? The only value guy is Broxton and a closer is not close to being as valuable as Halladay.

    Beltre’s been hurt the past few seasons and he’s been ok on offense even when healthy. Is he that big of an upgrade over Blake? He’s better but Beltre will give you .280 with 25HR while Blake gives you .270 with 18HR. Beltre is the superior defender but I don’t think the difference is big enough to warrant the difference in salaries.

    Why the Haeger love? The guy will be a journeyman for the rest of his career. There’s a reason why Wakefield is the only knuckleballer of recent time to be successful in this league. Solid kncuckleballers are hard to find.

    We all want to trade Pierre. We’ve tried the past few seasons. There are no takers. We can keep trying but don’t bank on trading Pierre. It won’t happen unless we eat a lot of his salary.

    My plan: go hard after John Lackey. Let DeWitt, DeJesus and Belliard share time at 2B. Belliard can play vs lefties and is a nice bench player. He can still hit a little and isn’t a stiff with the glove. He’s fat but doesn’t botch the routine play. Try to trade for Adrian Gonzalez again (Loney and prospects) but I doubt that happens. If not then go into next year with the same lineup and Lackey as our ace. Nothing too drastic.

  13. Badger says:

    Heatin’ up already in here.

    You guys who want to trade Broxton had better make sure it’s to an A.L. team because whoever gets him will be smart enough to teach him an off speed pitch and if it’s a National League team he will be shutting the door on us.

    Keep Blake? We have no choice. Same with Manny. Taking on Wells is only done if Halladay comes in the package. Toronto may want to dump him and if that’s the case, there are only a couple of teams that can afford it. And Frankly, we may not be one of them.

    Lackey would be a good pick-up but I heard last night he wants Burnett money – $16M+ a year forever. He may get it, but I doubt it will be from us.

    I’ll say it again – we don’t know what we are going to look like because we don’t know what Jamie wants. She gets half of everything so, half the Dodgers limits us. Does Frankie keep the team? Does she force the sale? We may become the Minnesota Twins shortly. Moneyball anyone?

    Stay tuned.

  14. tdf says:

    What players do you guys think it would take to get Adrian Gonzales from the Padres? I think it might be something both teams talk about this offseason since there were rumors in July. If that would happen then try and get Lackey. The team would look really good. Adrians bat in our lineup would be awsome. Remeber “super” Manny is gone the only thing thats left is Mr. Clean.

  15. Table says:

    There is no way Lindblom would do better than Broxton.

    Why would you want Wells?

  16. Blue Haze says:

    Don’t you dare trade Pierre, he is sitting in prime position to aid the Dodgers in deciding what to do with Manny. To trade Pierre totally ties the Dodgers hands.

    My bet is Manny is on the team opening day, but will soon become
    “injured” more and more thru out the season (his last signed year, I might add), causing him to take a seat thru out the season. Don’t be shocked if Manny even has some serious injury, that often happens after a guy is clean and is trying to train hard to compensate. You heard it hear first, Infidels! Manny will struggle to play in 100 games (for the Dodgers) next season.

    I want the Phillies to take down the Evil Empire (after taking down our Iffy Empire (ie. McCourt’s nut shot).

    Anyone see “The World Series Defense” on “it’s always sunny in Philadelphia”?
    This show will either A) make you roll on the floor laughing, B) leave you stun and confused, C) frustrate the crap out of you because you want to laugh profusely while at the same time being mortified by the behavior exhibited, D)scare the shit out of you.

    Yes, I am in the A group! (I know Gonzo is an A Grouper)

  17. Table says:

    “Look, you can disagree about Broxton, but I am consistent – I have been saying that he’ll never be a closer for three years. Who will close for us?”

    He was an All-star Closer THIS year.

    Do you know anything about Closers other than Eric Gagne?

    Nobody is perfect, I don’t think you hate Broxton because he blows saves, all closers do that. I think you hate him because of his personality. If he acted more like Jonathan Papelbon or Francisco Rodriguez, with all the bravado, then you would think he is a great closer.

    Just because a player fits the role of a closer the way an actor fits a movie part, it does not mean he will have greater success.

    You can act like Lindblom’s awesome demeanor will make him a better baseball player, but you would be dumb.

    Also, there is no argument to be made for Lindblom having more talent than Broxton, NONE.

  18. Blue Haze says:

    ONe more thing, nice titty twister Jamie is putting on Frankie, OUCH!! Jamie wants the team, does she have a case? She may have more than Frank’s titties in that twister (wink wink nudge nudge).

  19. Table says:

    At least I agree about Beltre.

  20. Cman12 says:

    A good run down of free agent second basemen here.

    http://mvn.com/aroundthemajors/2009/10/breaking-down-the-2010-free-agent-class-second-baseman.html

    I definitely think you let Belliard walk, but Orlando Hudson is still a really good fielding second basemen. But there are some other options too, like Felipe Lopez.

  21. jerry says:

    the problem is the pitching coach..just because he could throw ..doesnt mean he know how to coach..none of are pitcher ever throw any thing new..that is because honey…cutt dont know any thing.get some one who can teach..we will be a lot better..R martin need not to be takeing all those pitches , he is always behind in the count, be more acressive. just like la duca..first yr was great then down hill from there.

  22. Badger says:

    “Why would you want Wells?”

    We don’t. His ridiculous contract goes to $12.5 mil next year then explodes in 2011. This is the time when the Jays would want to dump him. He is a lifetime .280 hitter, and in the right lineup could knock in 90-100 and he has 3 Gold Gloves. He is only 31 and would be an upgrade over Manny. The idea is we take on his contract only if there is a sweet deal for Halladay included. Hitting in between Ethier and Loney (or Gonzalez) could be a comfortable place for him.

    Nobody in our system has more raw physical talent than Broxton. I keep him, unless there is a deal offered we cannot refuse. I find someone who can teach him an off speed pitch and leave him right where he is.

    Manny is going to get old very fast now. Blake will too. These guys aren’t allowed to take steroids for injuries anymore, so those hammies are going to get worse every year.

    Jamie may want the team, but she is only entitled to half of it. Somethin’ gotta give on that front and no matter what, neither of them are going to be able to afford to run the Dodgers the way it should be run. Just sell the team and go back to Boston.

  23. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I don’t have an opinion on Wells or Beltre, since I haven’t taken the time to look up their 2009 stats, and also haven’t seen either of them play lately on anything that even approaches an everyday basis. And that’s really the only way I can judge a player (and sometimes, even that doesn’t work).

    Like Werth and Victorino, Billingsley and Broxton may not be “all that now”, but I have little doubt that if they’re healthy, they can be “all that” very soon. Broxton clearly needs to add another off speed pitch to complement his fastball and an often devastating, but inconsistent, slider. As for Billingsley, I wonder if he wasn’t adversely affected by his offseason broken leg, which could have seriously cut into his workout regimen last winter, which might explain his second half decline, which could have been the result of less than stellar stamina.

    Manny????? Here’s hoping he opts out of his contract (given the year he had, I seriously doubt it’s happening). If Manny decides to stay, then I believe the cost is $25 million, deferred over 3 years at $8.333 million per year (I’m not in the mood, but someone might want to look it up, since I could be wrong). I’m not sure it’s possible, but trading Manny to an AL club (or any club) that picks up a piece of his contract, sounds good. Maybe they could defer those payments over 3 years (e.g., $10 million over three years is $3.333 million per year). Another option might be to just give Manny $10M for a guarantee that he doesn’t exercise his option, and then he can take his chances on the open market, if he so pleases.

    I don’t believe Hudson will be returning, nor do I want him to return. Belliard is certainly not the answer at 2B, and I don’t know if there are any free agent second baseman that will be available. Barring a trade or free agency, the in-house options appear to be DeWitt and De Jesus. I have doubts about DeWitt, although I don’t completely rule him out. The most intriguing option is De Jesus, and that assumes that he’s completely recovered from his broken leg (which I witnessed first hand standing behind the screen at the B game in which he was hurt). We may get some answers if he plays winter ball this year. It could be that in the tradition of both Werth and Victorino, Tony Abreu could come back to haunt us in a D-Backs uniform.

    I would definitely seek to trade Pierre. I still don’t like the idea of having his punchless bat and rag arm in leftfield. Given that he had a good year, and also because there are only two years left on his contract, it might be easier to trade him this winter. No doubt that players like Kemp, Loney, Ethier, etc. will command larger contracts. However, with the removal of Schmidt from the payroll, and such assorted players like Mota, Hudson, Manny (maybe), Pierre (if he can be traded), Wolf (maybe) and others, the Dodgers just might free up enough payroll to enable to them to afford Matt Holliday, or any other power hitting outfielder that might be available. They also might be paying less for the remaining years of the Andrew Jones deferral.

    Roy Halladay or another pitcher of his ilk would be nice to have. It all comes down to cost in players. I want to add another quality arm to the Dodger rotation, not add one and then subtract a good arm like Billingsley’s. Also, keep in mind Kuroda’s injuries this year and the fact that he will be 35 in 2010. Adding Wolf again might work, but depends on the overall picture that develops over the winter.

    Mark, I respectfully disagree with your opinion that Josh Lindblom should replace Broxton. I disagree with you about Broxton, but even if that weren’t the case, I would not be endorsing a rookie to fill the closer’s role next year. It’s happened befor (Huston Street and Frankie Rodriguez come to mind), but it’s also rare. Even Mariano Rivera in NY started out as John Wettland’s (remember him?) setup guy. I can see Lindblom opening the year in middle or late relief, but not as the closer; at least not at the beginning of the year.

  24. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    I stand corrected on Manny’s contract.

    Here it is:

    http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/los-angeles-dodgers.html

  25. kensai says:

    Ken

    “One of the most widely misused terms on the Net is “ad hominem”.

    *blah blah blah*”

    You made this whole post simply because I used the word “ad hominem” in trying to describe your argument? How was the usage of the word “boy” doing anything but trying to undermine my point in an attempt to insult? There was no point in your whole reply to me except an attempt to belittle. Hence, my usage of the word.

    The fact that you typed out the whole long post over my one sentence reply, and then the fact that you were accusing me of being fragile or defensive is hilarious. Really. I must have hit a nerve.

    “This is easy

    What Ken sai is wrong

    What Ken say is right

    Throw stats at us and spin the truth boy. We have all heard that game before. Go read “How to lie with Statistics” and then come back with your tail between your legs or your ego out of the clouds and then maybe there will be a two sided intelligent conversation. Knowing the soul of a man is more than Stats.”

    Yes, this is great evidence that you were the one who obviously started this whole exchange off with the intention of having an intelligent conversation.

    What Ken Say Is Wrong!
    What Ken Sai Is Right!

    You got me good!

    Ugh.

  26. kensai says:

    “Look, feel free to disagree with me, but when you insult me or try and convince me with statistics which WILL NEVER capture the power of the human spirit, you are showing you have no connection with reality. I suggest Fantasy Baseball. That’s the ticket! You little cowards who want to fire your “drive-by shootings” at me (you know who you are) wouldn’t last a minute in a face-to-face debate, so can it! Disagree all you want, but if you become disagreeable, it’s on! You cowards who hide behind your keyboards won’t win. As a matter of fact, you are losers, which is why you take such offense when I call JB that!”

    So we can disagree with you by using statistics, but at the same time we will always be wrong because they will never capture some arbitrarily defined term “human spirit”?

    Furthermore, if we think that personally insulting players as a manner of justifying performance is wrong, then we are losers? Really?

    Come on, Tim.

    Also, I don’t think anybody is hiding behind a keyboard here. After all, both parties are typing on a keyboard as a method of getting our respective points across, right? I know i’m not hiding. I just don’t care enough to fly thousands of miles to meet anybody in person, because it’s trivial to me.

    ———————————

    On a more analysis related note, I just don’t see how mentality can be seriously discussed when nobody here actually knows anything about it.

    It’s weird to me because you guys seem to dislike statistics and side with the scouting perspective. That’s totally fine, as I do a lot of that kind of stuff myself and enjoy it greatly, which is why I have disagreements with some stat nerds (as you would put it).

    However, your accusations about certain players are just odd because they are not in tune with what actual scouts and coaches see. The reason Broxton was thought to be a closer type in the minors was because scouts had him pegged as the correct mentality. Same with guys like Elbert and Billingsley and Kershaw. And yes, Lindblom. Guys who were seen as aloof were Joel Guzman and Andy LaRoche, among others.

    Why the disparity? Do you guys claim to know more about the player’s mental state than scouts and coaches who observe them directly?

    Personally, when it comes to mental aptitude, I rarely insert my personal opinion in scouting reports because there are those who know more than I ever will and I stick to reporting that. Anything I do would be mere speculation at best.

  27. mark says:

    Kensai,

    I was not referring to you as the “driveby shooter.” It’s others who use 4 or 5 different names that I am referring to. You can disagree with me all you want and I am fine with that. I don’t just read what scouts say, but I also talk with them. You will be hard pressed to find one who thinks Broxton doesn’t have “fear” issues in tight situations. I talk with scouts from other teams as well, and while I do enjoy and respect stats, I know that they are not the definitive final answer. Witness the last series.

    While I am not accusing you of anything, I find that sabermetricians frequently dismiss others as mentally inferior somehow because of their “superior” understanding of statistical analysis. When you disagree or have another opinion they often talk-down to you. While I read that stuff, and probably have more beaseball statistic books than most other fans, I don’t overvalue the stats. That’s it. I read your blog and like it for the most part. I don’t always agree, but it makes me think.

    I have started and own two businesses and manage people every day, and I see people who always get the job done, and others who have excuses. I don’t buy the excuses. Broxton is a rare talent, but mentally he IS soft (Billingsley too). I don’t care about fist-pumping and associated antics, but he is not very confident at times. Maybe if he was a little more demonstrative, he would “feed” his confidence. I’m just sayin…

    I would like to have a closer of J-Brox’s talent on the Dodgers. Can he get better? He was on the All-Star team, but we’ve all seen his melt downs. I don’t think he needs another pitch as much as he needs another “mindset.” I love the “good Brox.”

    I have a good eye for talent and I trust my eyes, while I “consider” the stats.

    For example, I am not going to name the TOP 20 Dodger prospects anymore. I am going to name TOP prospects, but ranking them is silly to me. I have about 10 that are near the top, what order they appear is irrelevant. Martin, Miller, Lambo, Gordon, Lindblom, DeJesus? What order? Hard to say…

    I like both stats and scouts, but I also know that in life YOU GET WHAT YOU BELIEVE! No question about it. Thoughts are things too. Which tells more about why the Dodgers lost than stats.

  28. Mark Timmons says:

    Brooklyn Dodger,

    I too was standing right behind home plate when DeJesus gave his “should I or should I not slide” and broke his leg. We probably talked.

  29. Mark Timmons says:

    Kensai,

    We have some “old school” guys here, but they are sometimes pretty smart…

  30. Mr. Mike says:

    Ned says no prob, business as usual; transalation, shits gonna hit the fan! Hey at least we’re not the cubbies. Peace

  31. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Mark,

    We probably would have talked if I had seen your picture and knew something about you. However, at the time I had not yet found your blog, and you were just another face in the crowd. As it was, I was standing on the left side behind the backstop, so I got a good look when he hit the catcher’s shin guard (I can still hear the thud).

    By the way, do you have any info. on how he’s progressed since the injury?

  32. Badger says:

    I doubt there will be much Dodger “news” until 7 days after the World Series is over and Manny is forced to decide. Gee, I wonder what he will do?

    And Kensai, it isn’t the stats you present, it’s how you present them. Show a little humility dude. You don’t just march into a room and declare you know everything before anyone knows you. I am a stat guy too. In fact, everyone in here reads the stats – some of us just put more importance on them than others do. The stat about Broxton that keeps coming up in my head is how many 4 seam fastballs he threw in his last inning of work. The one slider he threw was taken for a strike. I sure wish he would have throw at least one to Rollins before that tubed 98 miler. Oh well, if wishes were fishes.

    We are going to have differences of opinions around here. I still like Broxton as our closer and see nobody else who would be better. Just give the kid a sinking off-speed pitch and he is gold. As for his “mental make-up” you don’t get as far as he has, including making an All Star team, if you don’t have some gonadal chops. If we intend to give up on him, teams will line up for an opportunity to take him and do what is necessary to make him a perennial All Star pitcher.

    Manny and Blake? They are ours. We better have someone to spell Blake and we better hope Manny shows some pride and works on fixing the book on him, and that is the hole on the inside of his swing.

    The biggest thing about the Dodgers off-season is the elephant in the room that has already been mentioned many times – The Frank ‘n Jamie Show. I sure hope they get it done quickly and it’s amiable. Having been around a while, and done it once myself, I fear it will be anything but.

  33. Ken says:

    Broston is and always has been a good old down home country boy who needs to pitch every other day in a semi or lower stress situation. That makes him a great 7th or 8th inning pitcher and a candidate, when mentally ready, to be a closer. His internship in the 7-8 innings will take longer than most potential closers. He can not pitch on 3 or more days rest, he can not pitch three days in a row, and he can not pitch parts of two innings when either the inning is long or the day is cold. With these simple rules any moron could manage Broxton. Disregarding these simple rules will make any manager a moron.

    For the uneducated boy this post ws about Torre and his decision making process not YOU

  34. Badger says:

    Who’s Broston?

    edit please

    I wonder if Broxton was put into the closer role a year before the Dodgers really wanted him in that role. Seems to me Saito went down and that is why JB was put in that role early. Do I have that right?

    And, frankly he hasn’t done a bad job of it. His ERA, K/IP and WHIP are off the charts. Maybe he could take 2 or 3 mph off the fastball and put it on the corners – high and tight low and away? Keep it off the center of the plate man. And, then, something about a sinking off speed pitch?

    I would think most relievers don’t do well with more than 3 days off Ken, and your point is a good one. They need to get in the mix often to stay sharp. Broxton had 73 appearances, Troncoso 73, Belisario 69, Mota 61, Sherrill 72 – that’s about 1 appearance for every 2. games for those guys. If they can keep their pitch counts down, that isn’t so bad.

    Did you see how Manuel used his relievers? Some of those guys pitched to one hitter and they were outta there. Torre doesn’t do that so often. His pen starts working in the 5th or 6th and is forced to get way too many outs. Think about what 5 starters who all get 200 innings would do for that pen.

    • Ken says:

      You have that absolutely right!

      Too bad for Broxton being put in the role a year or two early. Saito may have been released by Boxton [sic] for what that is worth.

      If Torre looks at his use of pitchers last year, how, how often, why, how many pitches, how long to allow them to work through thier issues, etc. he should grade himself very low.

      Tom Seaver once said something to the effect that if he could not adjust his mechanics after 2 pitches that he was pissed at himself. Knowing when to adjust and how to adjust is one of the keys to becoming an ACE. Too many of the Dodger pitchers have no clue how to do this. Thus Torre should have managed under the principle of when you are hot your hot when you are not your not. That does not mean that he always should, that just means those are the type of players that he had and therefore he should have adjusted his coaching methodology to best utilize his players. A new coaching approch and maybe a new pitching coach would help solve this major, major, major problem.

      Troncoso had the 2nd most innings in the NL. That should have been ok if the Dodgers were grooming him to be a starter next year while utilizing him as a long releiver. But no, Torre used him in short relief, that was too many innings considering his off season injury.

      Somebody on the Dodgers needs to man up and publically state who was responsible for calling pitches. Martin, Torre, Bob, the pitcher, etc.

      This Dodger pitching staff averaged 5.72 innings per start, and only 3 even averaged 6.0 innings (which I consider to be the minimum acceptable average). That is why all year I have stated that this team should have had more long relievers. I will suggest the same for next year. The Dodgers should have 3 long relievers next year that pitch through the 7th inning. That will leave 4 strong short relievers for the 8th and 9th innings.

      I am now wondering if the Dodgers should sign some of their current free agent players to contracts without no-trade clauses and create an above average team with older players, with the younger players in the minors to start the year, dumping some of the marginal old AAA players who will never amount to much, thus stock piling players for trades during the season. Make some 3 for 1 and 4 for 2 trades during the season and trade some of the players during the season that will not be around after 2010 or 2011 anyway. 2010 may very well be a transition year, hopefully the transitioning will be over before 9/1/10.

  35. Brooklyn Dodger says:

    Badger,

    Give the guy a break. The “s” is just above the “x” on the keyboard. Most likely a typo. I make them, others make them, and you probably also make them. I proofread most of my stuff, and even then I sometimes miss a typo. It’s human. All the more reason for an “edit” or “preview” button.

    The above aside, I do agree with you regarding Broxton. In my mind he is among the elite closers, lacking only a consistent complement to his fastball. And, as I’ve noted before, he is only 25. Same can be said of Billingsley, who I also believe can step up big for us.

    I don’t think it’s a matter of Manny having holes in his swing, as much as I think he needs to regain his patience at the plate. For example, I do not go along with the observation I kept hearing during the playoffs, that Manny was getting beat inside. As I observed it, he was getting beat on inside pitches off the plate, pitches he normally takes, thereby forcing the pitcher back over the middle to outside of the plate. And it wasn’t just pitches inside. It was apparent to me that he was overanxious (for whatever reason(s)), and that he was generally swinging at pitches that weren’t strikes, and trying to pull the ball rather than just reacting. With the improvement of the players around him, I would have been very comfortable if he just took the walks, made the pitchers work that much harder, and had the confidence to leave the run production to the hitters behind him.

    I believe that Manny/Boras have to make the decision on whether or not to pick up Manny’s option on November 10th. So we’ll know soon. Personally, it seems logical to me, based on the year he had, that Manny/Boras will opt to remain. But logic is in the eye of the beholder, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

    My hope is that Manny will NOT pick up the option, thereby leaving the Dodgers with additional funds with which to pursue another power hitting outfielder (Matt Holliday?????????) and/or address their other needs. I threw Matt Holliday’s name in above, but actually, rather than suggest names, I prefer to let it all play out, and see what develops. There are simply too many variables, and too much information to which I am not privy, for me to begin making suggestions. Time to trust that Dodger management is on the ball, and hope that everything turns out for the best.

  36. GoNzO says:

    Remember I mention steinberg and Jamie McC might of had a thing? Check this from Shaikin’s article today.

    The letter charges Jamie McCourt with “insubordination, non-responsiveness, failure to follow procedures, and inappropriate behavior with a direct subordinate.”

    Seems somebody’s hand was caught in the cookie jar.

  37. Badger says:

    It was just a joke Broooklyn. That is why I asked for the edit below it. And I never make any misteaks.

    We all need the edit button now and then.

    I agree Ken, 6 innings per start is the minimum and that gets a front of the rotation starter 200 innings per year. There were 40 pitchers who had 200 innings this year, one was a Dodger – Wolf. Garland did it but most of his innings weren’t in L.A.. (By the way, why wasn’t he on the post season squad?) San Franscisco had 2, Colorado had 2, Arizona had 3. And, it was interesting how many of those inning eaters had ERA’s under 4.

    With 5 starters, it sure would be nice if all 5 of them could average 6. Is that really asking all that much?

    It is true that Manny was swinging at pitches off the plate inside. But, he wasn’t hitting the ones on the corner either. All the announcers noticed it. He has a hole in his swing and until it is fixed, that is the book on him.

    Time to trust Dodger management huh? And who is that?

    According to what was posted earlier, Manny has until 7 days after the end of the World Series to decide to pick up his option or not. That isn’t very far off. I’ll bet Borass is burning up the phones right now, and it could be that he gets a three year offer from somebody, but, it won’t come close to what Dodger management has on the table already. He will have one more year here to get his collective stuff together and then get a DH deal. I will be VERY surprised if he isn’t here.

  38. lawdog says:

    Manny’s bat was significantly slower after coming back from the suspension than it was before which made it difficult to get around on fastballs in or adjust to fastballs or offspeed stuff outside on the black. He suddenly showed his age. No doubt he was missing the roids.

    His contract for next season is $20 million, not $25 million. Hopefully he’ll go to the Dominican, juice up again, and give himself more time to flush the roids and mask before returning and being subject to further testing. Manny on roids is worth every penny we paiod. Manny without roids is just another mediocre leftr fielder who’ll hit around .280 with 20 hrs.

    The fact that Frank fired his wife from her job as CEO or whatever it was from the Dogs front office is terrible news! She’ll undoubtedly want to “get even” and might well be willing to destroy the team in the process if she doesn’t get her way. In any event, even if Frank has Fred try to buy her out–it will put us behind the 8 ball in terms of money to sign FAs. Our only hope is that Frank sells the club to Fred.

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