Cooler Heads Will Prevail

Of course, I would like for the Dodgers to sign Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, and Stephen Strasburg while trading for a bonified closer and a set-up man. .. and while I am at it, I want to look like Brad Pitt and be as smart as Jeff Bezos. Oh, and I want Bezos’ money too.

The odds of all that happening for the Dodgers is about as likely I look like Brad Pitt and have Bezos’ money. Would I be happy with Brad Pitt Looks and big money? If there is one thing I have learned by my last day on this earth at age 65, it is that good looks and big money are sometimes the anthesis of happiness… and it’s not any different from buying baseball players. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Max Scherzer was one of the best free-agent pitcher signings of all time. He has consistently been one of the top 2 or 3 pitchers in baseball… yet it took the Nats five years of Max Scherzer to win a World Series and they won it with him having his worst season as a National. At the end, he was a broken-down shell of himself, but they won in spite of that.

From 2005 until 2011, the Nats were never over .500 and in 2008 and 2009, they lost 205 games. That bad record netted them the #1 draft pick in 2009, and they signed him to an extension recently which kept him on the team. Stephen Strasburg was the horse they rode to the Championship.

The Nats tried to rebuild their bullpen after the 2018 season and they also signed Patrick Corbin, a mid-tier free-agent starter, and Anibal Sanchez whose ERA over the past 5 years was over 5.00. The bullpen was a disaster and Corbin was either hot or cold, but the disaster of a bullpen they built was exceptional in the playoffs and Sanchez delivered when called upon.

We know the story: Early in the season, the fans wanted the manager fired, the biggest name (and contract) free agent left the team, and the team was full of castoffs (Kendrick, Parra, Ross, Hudson, Sanchez, Suzuki, Cabrera, Difo, Gomes, Adams, and Dozier), habitually injured players (Zimmerman, Eaton), and two youngsters whose combined age was 42 (Soto and Robles).

It takes something magical to win the World Series. We all know what happened in 1988. Bluto posted an article last week which captured the essence of what it takes to win a World Series: GET THERE! To me, the more you can get there, the better your chances.

On paper, the Dodgers were a much better team than the Nats in 2019… and they played that way all season (106 wins)… until they didn’t! Andrew Friedman built a team that was capable of winning it all, but the Baseball Gods had a different plan. My point is, you absolutely do not sell out to win it all in 2020. Andrew Friedman’s long-term plan is to build a sustainable model that can produce a team capable of winning year-after-year and getting there every year.

Of course, that is not possible as the three best teams in baseball (on paper), namely the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees did not win. The Nationals had a magical season in 2019… much like the Dodgers did in 1988. What that means is that the Dodgers need to keep growing the farm, improving the team and taking the openings that are available. They absolutely should not deplete the farm system and make any dope-fiend moves. They need to maintain the course. IF Rendon, Strasburg and/or Cole are available at a price that makes sense, then they should pull the string, but this is not fantasy baseball.

The Dodgers are a very good team, fresh off a 106 win season. There comes a point where you say “OK maybe another horse (Cole or Strasburg) will make a difference”… and you sign him, but you don’t gut the farm to get players like Betts, Lindor or others who will demand a lot of prospects. You stay the course. You improve incrementally. You have to assume that your young cores can get better – players like Seager, Bellinger, Smith, Verdugo, Urias, Buehler, and others.

Friedman utilized the Rich Hills, Hyun-jin Ryu’s, Brandon McCarthy’s, Brett Anderson’s and Scott Kazmir’s to get to this point: The point of where you can dip into the farm system for 4, 5 or 6 players a year. Friedman does not need to do that anymore. When you get to this point, you do not abandon the plan. Friedman has the Mays, Gonsolins and a host of other young players. He has the Minor League Player of the Year, Gavin Lux.

Juan Soto looked good in the minors, but nothing like Gavin Lux! Look back at some of the Minor League Players of the year and you will see that they are not only pretty good, but they are also stars! Guerrero, Jr, Bryant, Snell, Trout, and others. Trust your farm system, trust your development team and build from within. Occasionally, you sign a free agent and you make trades to adjust your L-R balance on hitting or pitching.

I am not against Rendon or Cole, but it has to make sense. The Dodgers have a number of players that could be traded to improve balance and/or the bullpen:

  • Joc Pederson
  • Kenta Maeda
  • Chris Taylor
  • Kike Hernandez

Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Keibert Ruiz, Brett de Gues, and several others could step up. Not all will but some that you don’t expect just might. All, I am saying is that getting to the postseason is the single most important thing to do. That, and catching some fairy dust along the way.

This article has 29 Comments

  1. “…but it has to make sense.” SPOT ON! And I am certain that Andrew Friedman is not going to do anything stupid that will be shortsighted for the team.

  2. I get your point MT. But, at the same time, you can absolutely see that most World Series winners had a key free agent signing, or trade that put them over the top. The last time we won, it as Kirk Gibson. The Nats brought in a lot of outside players that put them over the top including Kendricks, Cabrera, Suzuki and Eaton a few years earlier. Astros, Verlander and Red Sox JDM. Not too many teams have a ring from solely building from within.

    I don’t think the team needs an overhaul, but it does need a RH Bat and possibly an Ace and a Closer.

  3. Well Mark, you’re right, you can’t become Bezos, look like Brad Pitt, but the Dodgers could sign Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon … and still make a sizable profit. They can try to find bullpen help on the trade market. All this is possible. They could also stop jacking up the cost of season tickets, buy Frank McCourt out of his share of the parking lot for a mere $50 million. What will not happen is a solution to the TV fiasco that involves the Dodgers resolving it by taking less money.

    Just acquiring those two free agents would be a game changer, if they stay healthy and perform as expected. It would preserve the farm system. Years ago, before Friedman, this would have been a solution pushed by ownership.

    But things have changed and the Dodgers are playing the long game, trying to stay away from long term, high end contracts that have made a mess out of so many MLB teams. So maybe, they just absorb one big free agent contract by signing Cole or Rendon. Or maybe they avoid even one, considering that they want to keep Cory Seager, Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler as a core. Those future contracts will be costly. Perhaps that means a shorter term, less costly deal for someone like Josh Donaldson.

    I would definitely trade Kenta Maeda. I can see a pretty good return, probably the most viable trade asset the Dodgers have. If he doesn’t want to pitch out of the pen, even in the playoffs, his value diminishes greatly. I would rather see Dustin May in a starting role, could see him being able to pitch 175 innings.

    I still like Joc, but the outfield is already too crowded, so it makes some sense. AJ Pollock, Alex Verdugo and Cody Bellinger make for a pretty good outfield with a Chris Taylor or Kiki Hernandez and Matt Beaty backing up.

    If the Dodgers go into next year with Justin Turner at third, Max Muncy at first, Gavin Lux at second and Seager at short, that’s a pretty good infield. Add a starting pitcher, bullpen help, not a bad off-season.

    But I suspect the Dodgers may want to resolve third base long term or at least for two or three years so I expect them to seriously pursue Donaldson or Rendon. Maybe, they find an up and coming starting pitcher on the trade market or pursue a Zack Wheeler, definitely high risk with the injury history. Sort of like a more expensive version of Scott Kazmir with a lot more upside.

    Good write-up Mark. Always enjoy your posts.

  4. I agree Friedman will not do anything stupid but the Dodgers have needs, let´s see what happens, as for me all players
    not named Buehler, Bellinger, Urias, May ,or Seager are in play. Smith, Verdugo, and Lux a huge maybe.

  5. “At a price that makes sense” What is that price? For Cole? Rendon? Strasburg? I am assuming the prices being reported are north of your comfort zone. I am also assuming that whatever these three sign for will be less than what the Dodgers could have or should have spent according to 59 and others. It is not my money, and even if the Dodgers spend $300MM it will not impact my by MLB At Bat every year (including MiLB), or my ability to buy my jerseys. If the Dodgers need to exceed the CBT threshold because they do not have that second Ace, or that big RH bat to carry them, then so be it. AF and Kasten keep telling us that the luxury tax is not an impediment, then go ahead and prove it, AF has been pointing to this year to be able to spend.

    Patrick Corbin was not a mid-tier free agent last year. He was the best pitcher available. He would have been the Ace for NYY, but signed with Washington where he was a #3. To me it is not a surprise that the two teams with 2 true Aces made the WS. The Dodgers have 1 current, and 1 former.

    Yes, the Dodgers on paper were a better team over the 162 game season, as were the Astros. But the Dodgers did not have that second co-Ace or that clutch bat needed in the playoffs. You can still wait and win 100 games and hope the kids come through this time in the playoffs. Who wins Game 5 if Rendon is a Dodger and not a Nat? Rendon’s post season stat line – .282/.370/.429/.848 in a not so small sample size of 138 PA. There is no co-Ace in the system. Dustin May and Julio Urias are considered a #2 at their best, and they have not proven that yet. There is no RH power bat ready in the system unless you want to put all your eggs in DJ Peters’ basket. Not me. I have no idea if Cristian Santana or Miguel Vargas or Kody Hoese are legit 3B prospects. I know that neither Santana or Vargas are considered good defensive 3B.

    Some point to Alex Verdugo as being the missing piece, and that the outcome would have been different had he been on the playoff roster. Based on what? He has never been in a post season game. Maybe he goes Juan Soto, but maybe he goes AJ Pollock/Cody Bellinger/Corey Seager. This is not a knock on Alex. He obviously would have been more productive than Pollock. I would have preferred his bat and arm in the playoffs. But we will never know if he was a difference maker. I feel the same about Castellanos. Is he really an upgrade of a Joc/Kike’ platoon? Both Joc and Kike’ have clutched up at times in October.

    We know Rendon is a clutch bat in the post season. But to Mark’s point, he was in the past, who knows what he will do next time. All we can do is look at past performances and draw conclusions. I hope Seager/Belli go off next year in the playoffs, but it is only hope because they have never done so.

    I am not now, nor have I ever been an advocate for gutting a farm system for Lindor or Betts. I do think Joc, Maeda, and either Kike’ or CT3 are tradeable. I also believe that Strip, Barnes, Rios/Beaty (one of) and any of the current relief corps is in that group. But none of them are difference makers. Some may bring back Ken Giles or Shane Greene, but there is no difference making RH bat that can help the ML team coming back with that group.

    Guys like Mitch Haniger and Edwin Diaz are less likely to be traded because of their cheap control and that they would be selling at their cellar price. Carlos Beltran has already said that his going to take Edwin Diaz under his wing. There is no way BVW is going to trade Diaz after last year with his new manager already talking him up. I think we see a Diaz more closely resembling the Seattle Diaz than the NYM Diaz next year.

    So now it is up to AF. I do not care which area he chooses to upgrade, RH Bat or Co-Ace. But sign one early and then find other less elite upgrades via trade or FA. Do not let everyone else sign the difference makers and then spend the $$$ on Pollock or Kelly types. I would rather they do nothing than sign mediocre players. But if AF does nothing, that will provide more evidence that he is not at all interested in spending any money on elite FA. I would rather him be honest and tell us that than letting us all hope that they will take a chance on the elite financial ability of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

    1. AC your last paragraph says it all what the DODGERS will do this off season. If not and elite game changer I say do nothing.

    2. 1. Patrick Corbin may have been the best available starter but with a career 3.80 ERA, I consider him a second-tier starter. A 3 or 4, not a 1 or 2. I mean, May might be a #1 for Baltimore, but I am talking about contending teams.

      2. I am not sure what the number was, but allegedly Friedman was willing to go 5 years and $156 million with Greinke, but not 6 years and $206 million. It’s probably a higher number with Cole… but it’s not $300 million.

      3. I agree about Haniger and Diaz. No chance.

      4. “But if AF does nothing, that will provide more evidence that he is not at all interested in spending any money on elite FA. I would rather him be honest and tell us that than letting us all hope that they will take a chance on the elite financial ability of the Los Angeles Dodgers.” So, if Cole get $400 million and Rendon gets $350 million, Freidman should have signed them? I’m all in… if the price is right!

      1. Why not just say Cole is going to get $500MM, and Rendon signing a Mike Trout level contract. That is as likely as Cole signing for $400MM or Rendon for $350MM. If Cole signs for $225MM are you going to be happy that AF sat on the sidelines? Or Rendon $200MM? Nobody on this site will ever argue that Cole is a $400MM pitcher so why even use that as a measurement.

        If Cole signs for $225MM, I will be upset that AF did not go to $230. If Rendon is willing to sign a 4 year $160MM, I would be upset if the Dodgers were not willing to match or exceed that. 7 years $225MM for Cole and 4 years at $160MM for Rendon are more realistic and yes I would pay it for either one. I prefer Cole, but I expect Rendon is more achievable.

        Patrick Corbin would have been the Ace on NYY and probably would have made a difference. NYY fans are p’d that they did not sign him. Instead he was the #3 behind two top five CY vote getters. If your definition of 2nd tier is not an Ace, then I will not disagree. But he is not paid to be an Ace, but he is just below that.

        It is easy to build up your favorite team when you downgrade every other player. Why not just bring up the AAA team? I get it. The Dodgers are fine with a RH bat with Garlick or bring up Peters. Why spend on an Ace when you have multiple #3, #4, and #5 to choose from. That will work for 162 games, but it will take luck in a playoff series. Why spend anything for relievers. We already know that Alexander and Garcia will be vying for Reliever of the Year. Maybe they are only a year behind what you projected. Or maybe they are okay at middle relief but are not high leverage late inning relievers. Plus there is all those other minor league pitchers. That way you will never make a dope-fiend move. If you are afraid to spend, when you have $45+MM, then it is time to get out.

        1. For the record, I think the Dodgers will spend. I am just not convinced that someone won’t outbid them with a straight-up dope-fiend move.

  6. Great post MT. I seem to almost always agree with 59. I totally agree that a total make over is not in order. Frankie Lindor and outfield trades are not the answer to our core needs, unless there is a right handed power bat in there. Again, sign a DUDE starter. Cole is prefect. Make that happen. Get a right handed power bat for any corner. And trade for a closer or have a solid plan to groom someone internally. I’m for pursuing Edwin Diaz. I really don’t want another season of watching KJ struggling to keep the job and blowing saves until October. There is enough evidence to see that he is done.

  7. Every year I lean to staying with the current team and especially with those that have been on the team for a few years or spent a year(s) in the Dodger system. But I still play with trades and free agent signings in the off season for the fun of it.

    I like the personalities of Lindor, Archer, Torres and would welcome them on the Dodgers but I don’t expect that to happen.

    I do want a strong righty bat again this year. If Pollock were going to be a plus center fielder then I would be happy to see what he might do in 2020 but he isn’t.

    There are minor league players that I like and there are some that I don’t. Once I like one of them, I usually keep liking them and unfortunately I am slow to liking someone that I originally didn’t like, i.e. Verdugo. I’m neutral on Jeren Kendall but hold out high hopes for him.

    I would like to add Diaz and Pomeranz to the 2020 bullpen and re-sign Hill to a bullpen role. I am ready to move on from Ryu and Maeda.

    I like an infield of Muncy, Lux, Turner, and Seager and therefore I don’t like the thought of Rendon pushing on of them out of the infield but realize Turner may only have one more year of full time play and might not be a Dodger after 2020. Seager might not be a Dodger after the 2021 season and he has Boris for his agent. Maybe Turner and Muncy swap positions and Turner gets a one year extension. Maybe Seager gets traded for an Ace if Rendon is signed.

    1B Muncy
    3B Turner
    SS Seager
    CF Bellinger
    C Smith
    LF Pederson (extended)
    RF Haniger (sorry Alex)
    2B Lux

  8. The history of the Dodgers is proof positive that getting to the post-season often enough will not necesaarily net you World Series victories. The Blue has been to the Series the 2nd most in MLB history (20 times, behind the Yankees’ 40 times) but only has 6 victories to show for it. Their 14 Series losses is the most in MLB history. A record of 6 – 14 in the World Series is not too good.

    The Boys of Summer (1941 – 1956) made it 6 times with, famously, 1 win to show for it. Their pitching was never as good as the Yankees’ and one of their best pitchers (Newcombe) didn’t pitch well in the Series.

    The famous infield (Garvey, Lopes, Russell and Cey) made it 4 times with 1 win to show for their sustained excellence (1973 – 1981).

    The only era where the Dodgers consistently succeeded in the Series was the Koufax – Drysdale era (1959 – 1966) when they won 3 out of 4, even when they couldn’t hit a lick. Koufax may be the best World Series pitcher in history, and Podres could pitch in the clutch.

    My preference is for an ace-based pitching staff. The Dodgers of recent vintage did have a 2-ace rotation for a while (Kershaw/Greinke) but Kid K has well-documented problems in the post-season and never got it done.

    The Dodgers have one guy with ace stuff in the post-season (Buehler), one former ace with post-season scars (Kershaw) and what exactly? Maybe Urias or May will be an ace but they aren’t right now, and anyway, Urias only threw 78 innings last year. He’s not going to throw 100 more innings next year.

    Getting to the post-season next year (and they will, I know) will not get them a ring unless they do something different this off-season. What was Einstein’s theory about insanity?

    While I don’t expect the Dodgers to actually sign either Cole or Strasburg, doing so immediately gives them a better chance to win it all than if they don’t. I don’t think that anyone would contest that. I don’t know of a true ace available by trade. Maybe AC is right and Corey Kluber is still an ace and the Indians would let him go for something reasonable. The Mets have said that Syndergaard is unavailable. The Bosox are trying to unload salary – -anyone want Chris Sale, David Price or Nathan Eovaldi?

    I have other thoughts but my 1st priority would be to acquire another ace.

  9. 2 quotes that I would like to highlight that are very true and I totally agree with. First from Mark.

    “There comes a point where you say “OK maybe another horse (Cole or Strasburg) will make a difference”… and you sign him, but you don’t gut the farm to get players like Betts, Lindor or others who will demand a lot of prospects.”

    Next from Always Compete.

    “To me it is not a surprise that the two teams with 2 true Aces made the WS.”

    After looking closely at the free agent market and at the players stats closely I’ve abandoned my call to trade for Aaron Bummer at least for now, because there are 3 relievers on the free agent market that to me are clear upgrades over the likes of Floro, Alexander, Garcia, Sadler, Ferguson and any others that didn’t make the playoff roster. Those 3 relievers are Drew Pomeranz, Will Harris, and Tyler Clippard. But none of them have had bona fide closer experience. Clippard saved 32 in 2012 and 38 in 2015, so maybe he can close or maybe not.

    If I were calling the shots I’d go after free agents Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but I’d go about the off season with the expectation that I will not land either Cole or Strasburg. Therefore I’d upgrade the bullpen by signing any of those 3 relievers I mentioned above and trade for a closer and that closer would be Ken Giles, he would come cheap because he has only 1 year of control left on his contract.

    Also during the season I would try out several different guys in the 9th inning in a non save situation with the thought of losing Giles to free agency at the end of the season, hoping to find a future closer. To me, Jansen is done as a closer.

    I’m not big on the idea that the Dodgers need to balance the offense with a power hitting right handed hitter. We have some young guns that need to mature into good hitters and I expect that to happen, therefore I would not change a thing when it comes to our offense.

    1. I’d like to point out that Floro, Alexander, Garcia, Sadler, Ferguson, and others may pitch entirely differently in 2020.

      1. Mark

        But there is no evidence that it will happen. Especially if you look at their career stats. I would not take a chance on them, I’d rather upgrade.

        1. I will say Mark is right. I feel and hope Ferguson and the others will be more successful next year. But especially Ferguson. He is only 22 and still lots of room room for improving with the potential he has. I share AC’s opinion of him.

        2. Me too, but there is no evidence the guys you get will be as good… even if they were last year. That’s the nature of relief pitchers. I am already on record as saying that Yimi Garcia may be the best Dodgers reliever in 2020.

      2. Garcia and Sadler are out of options so if they do pitch well in 2020 it may be for a different team. They’ll need to have a good spring in order to stick on the roster.

        1. Baseball Reference website has Sadler with only 0.111 service time. Are you sure he’s out of options? I wouldn’t mind him being in AAA next season and on call if injuries happen. Same with Ferguson in AAA and on call.

          1. According to Roster Resource he and Garcia are out of options. Sadler has had “cups of coffee” with Pirates and Rays

  10. I think the majority of the pen is a bunch of good solid guys to build around. This does not include Floro and Chargois. With that said, I don’t think Harris or Clippard are clear upgrades. They’re both solid guys at this point of their careers. Signing those guys would be as good as the couple of guys you have to cut, but will be more costly. Ferguson is the one guy in the pen that has the highest ceiling for me. He’s very much still a pup so there’s time to improve still.

    Giles and Pomeranz are clear upgrades especially in terms of stuff. Pomeranz is what the Cubs thought they were getting in Morrow, but left handed and less injured.

    If I had to choose between that Ace and a right handed power bat in Rendon/Donaldson, I would choose the bat. But, if I’m the Dodgers, I go hard after both and I include Cole, Stras and Wheeler in the Ace conversation. If I can’t get those pitchers, but I am fortunate enough to land Rendon, I go hard after Bauer or Kluber on the trade front and dangle Muncy, Joc, Ruiz and a prospect or two starting with No. 7 on the list. (Not all five guys, but more like a package of 3)

    I would also go hard after Pomeranz and strike fast like the Braves did with Smith. If he signs elsewhere, I let AC trade for another reliever or two, perhaps Giles.

    I’m still sticking with a reliever that can close, one of those two third baseman and one of Cole/Stras/Wheeler/Bauer/Kluber or Ryu. I would also keep Betts on the wish list if you can line it up without giving up too much future.

    I would definitely plan on having Gonsolin in the pen next year. One thing that wasn’t talked about is that Gonsolin spent some time on the IL last year and his fastball was nowhere near the triple digits that was reported in 2018.

    1. Gonsolin had an oblique injury which was the culprit. It actually bothered him most of the year.

    2. I think you’re overpaying for Bauer or Kluber. Bauer wasn’t all that special last year and Kluber was injured most of the year. Muncy by himself should be enough to get either one of them, not that I’m necessarily endorsing that deal.

      I think the deal you suggested would be enough to get Lindor (Muncy, Ruiz, Downs). Again I’m not even sure I would do that deal. I’d rather have those three guys and keep Seager.

      I’m all for going hard after Pomeranz and wouldn’t mind Giles either. If Mark is correct that the oblique injury was bothering Gonsolin for most of the year, we should see increased velo next year and he will be a good weapon out of the bullpen.

      1. I agree on Gonsolin, he would be in my bullpen if I was calling the shots.

        I was very impressed with his performance against the Yankees (yes against that offense) last season.

    3. You are going to “dangle” Muncy in a 3 player package for Kluber or Bauer? That will take Indians or Reds a nano-second to accept considering Muncy has been one of the top 10 offensive players in MLB (Fangraphs weighted runs created) over the last 2 seasons. Over that period of time Rendon’s wRC+ is 147, Muncy 146 and will make about $30M less than Rendon in 2020. Indians are trying to dump Kluber’s salary, and Bauer, who has been a clubhouse problem, will be a free agent after 2020.

      1. Yes, I would. He had a nice WAR, a lot of homers, a lot of walks and a lot of Ks and not many doubles or hits. If you’re getting a third baseman, I’d rather have JT’s bat. Muncy is not a second baseman. If you can get Kluber or Bauer straight up, be my guest.

  11. I think we need a second ace more than a RH bat. If I had to spend 300 million to get Cole or Strasberg, I would. May and Urias may become aces, but they are not there yet. You have to have two aces to win a WS. My starters would be Beuhler, Cole/Strasberg, May, Urias, and Maeda.

    Keep Furguson and Gosolin in the pen. Maybe we have a closer by committee, which I like better. I still like the Dodgers to resign Hill. Use him in the pen and as a spot starter. Keep Maeda and let him start. If he does well, then May or Urias can go to the pen in the playoffs. If not then Maeda should accept his role in the pen in the playoffs.

    I would trade Joc, Kike/Taylor, and Stripling for a RH bat. There are some other players like Barnes who could be traded for prospects.

    1. What happened to Kershaw?

      What makes you think that a 40 year old who has had several arm surgeries like Hill is best-suited for the bullpen? It’s harder to get loose when you’re old and your arm has scar tissue.

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