Categorized | Mark Timmons

So Do You Want To Pay The Price?

So Do You Want To Pay The Price?

Would you like Cliff Lee?  Would ya’?  Would ya’?

Pay me Elbert, McDonald, Lambo and DeWitt.  Thank you very much!

Zambrano?

The same!

Sheets, Martinez?jschmidt

Do you know how many setbacks these guys usually have?  Haven’t you observed Jason Schmidt, Carpenter and others?

Before I go on, I want to print part of what Jon Weisman wrote last week.  Read it c-a-r-e-f-u-l-l-y!

The number of innings that Dodger starting pitchers throw is irrelevant unless put in context with the overall team total. To go to an extreme hypothetical, it would be perfectly fine for Dodger starting pitchers to average one inning per game if the bullpen comprised seven Sidd Finches who had no trouble handling the other eight innings.

The Dodgers’ needs are considerably more moderate.

Through Thursday, Dodger starting pitchers averaged 5.63 innings per game, 0.18 below the National League average and 0.50 behind league-leading Chicago. That’s the difference the Dodger bullpen has had to make up.

This season, Ramon Troncoso has thrown 19 percent of the Dodger relief innings, Ronald Belisario 17 percent and Jonathan Broxton 14 percent. 

That means the effect of Dodger starting pitchers not leading the league in innings has been …

… Troncoso has had to get 0.10 extra innings per game.

… Belisario has had to get 0.09 extra innings per game.

… Broxton has had to get 0.07 extra innings per game.

For Troncoso, the busiest pitcher, that’s one extra inning every 10 games.

That’s it.

Going forward, if all remains the same, that’s all they’ll have to do. And that’s without the Dodger starting pitchers improving by that small margin. And that’s without another relief pitcher taking on more of the load, something the Dodgers might afford with their large lead in the division, the resurgence of Guillermo Mota, the rise of Brent Leach or the emergence of another arm.

That’s nothing.

Those guys may be working hard, but it’s not the starting pitchers’ fault. And almost without exception, they have been getting plenty of rest. Even Ronald Belisario’s consecutive outings Thursday and Friday came after four days off.

The only thing the Dodgers need to worry about right now regarding their pitching is a dip in quality.  As far as quantity, I swear to you, they are doing fine.

I think those of you who are screeming for a starter are making knee-jerk reactions based upon fear, not fact. 

Here are the facts:

  1. Chad Billingsley is one of the best starters in all of baseball statistically over the last year.  Period!  End of story.  Cole Hamels ERA is 1.4 points above Billingsleys.  C-Bill has stumbled lately.  All starters do (sooner or later), but his ERA is still barely over 3.00.
  2. Clayton Kershaw has a 2.36 ERA over the past 30 days?  You have seen him pitch several good games in a row.  Any questions?
  3. Hiroki Kuroda appears sound, hasn’t walked a batter in quite a while and has had one exceptional outing.  His fastball is regularly in the 95+ range and he is using all his pitches.  I think he is just getting it back.
  4. Randy Wolf has had several bad starts recently, which may or may not be attributed to his “cough.”  He is the only starter (so far) with an injury history, so you have a right to exercise fear here.   There is nothing I have seen that leads me to believe he is injured.  Let’s see if he bounces back.
  5. Why would we sign Pedro or Sheets when we have a rehab project (Jason Schmidt) who just pitched 7-2/3 innings and may be ready to return… finally?  Milton just returned only to strain his back, but I see no reason he can’t hold down #5, or Stults for that matter.  Elbert, Lindblom & McDonald haven’t even been considered.

Now, in the next 30 days, I could change my mind, but right now, right here, I am fine with our starters!  But I am also the guy who buys stocks when others are selling.  I don’t follow the crowd, because the crowd is ALWAYS wrong!  Does this mean I think we have no problems?  Not in the least.  Our hitting over the past month has become deplorable!  More tomorrow!

Sad Story: Jerry Crowe of The LA Times on the guy who used to be D.D.

FINALLY:  I WOULD trade Elbert, Stults. McDonald, DeWitt, Lambo and Ethier for Cliff Lee and Grady Siezmore.

About Mark Timmons

When you see the invisible, you can do the impossible!

40 Responses to “So Do You Want To Pay The Price?”

  1. Bill Russell says:

    OK, lets recap Marks version of the chat from yesterday. If we sign or trade for a pitcher they will end up like Jason Schmidt. There can’t be a success story with pitching. Who will pay $47 million for 3 years and get an injury prone pitcher in today’s market? Been there and done that, lets hope we’ve learned something about checking medical records. Taking a chance on Sheets or Martinez would be for only this year.

    Let’s stand pat for the next 30 days while the trading deadline comes and goes before deciding if we need a pitcher. I think I recapped that one correctly no comment needed.

    If we do trade for someone, we have to give up every good prospect we have in the minors in order to retain someone.

    Lastly, Mark reserves the right to be wrong and change his mind if our retreads fall apart and our pitching goes sour. There’s a reason why tire retreads are laying all over the freeway with cars parked on the side waiting for help.

    However, none of us can be wrong and we must bring it like Jim the jerk Rome. I still remember Jim Evert wanting to rip is head off for being a JERK calling him Chris Evert during an interview.

  2. mark says:

    Chris

  3. Badger says:

    From my perspective it isn’t necessarily how many innings the relievers get, it’s the fact that they have to be used so often.

    Maybe I need to explain that. Every time a reliever gets up in the bullpen it is wear and tear on his arm. Even if he comes in for one out, it is a day that he didn’t have off and THAT is what I am concerned about. I don’t know Bellesario, not sure who Ohman is, Troncoso is young and so is McDonald. Broxton is a beast but I don’t want him out there all the time either. The other guys down there are retreads trying to revive careers.

    How about a couple of starts that go 8 or even 9 innings now and then? Is that so much to ask? You know these guys will have the next 4 days off so dang it, throw strikes, pitch to contact and trust your defense will bail you out. 100 pitches to get through 6 seems bizarre to me.

    I think our hitting will come around. Martin just needs to relax and stay within himelf. In fact, that is the advice I would give all these guys. Relax, look for strikes, work the count and hit it where it is pitched. We’ll be fine. All teams and all players go through slumps. Hopefully having Manny back will relax everybody.

    Hopefully.

    And Bill, it is my opinion that you are being just a tad hard on mover. But he can take it. I have known him a long time and have had many disagreements with him but I find him to be able to take criticism well.

    Here, I’ll show you what I mean.

    Mark,

    You are full of crap. I think the only thing “soft” in here can be found between your ears. I look forward to your response.

    Love Always,

    Badger

  4. lawdog says:

    AREN’T WE GOING TO LOSE BELISARIO TO DEPORTATION AFTER THIS SEASON? I understand he got popped for DUI. That’s a zero tolerance crime these days folks. Charles Barkley just sat in a jail cell for his mandatory weekend for driving DUI in Arizona. I don’t think a fancy lawyer can fix this mess for our rookie phenom with the 97 mile an hour sinker. You’d need to get a lawyer connected with the mob who can make sure the case is called in a court room presided over by a judge who got where he or she is because of connections to the mafia. There are lots of those in the LA area. I jut have my doubts as to whether Fred is that well connected.

    If he is convicted or pleads guilty to DUI or a wet reckless he will be deported and barred from returning. Something you can thank Dubya and Cheney for.

  5. Badger says:

    Not the response I was looking for mover. Pain meds got you down?

    Belesario is amongst the group that is above the law ldog. You should know that. They will slap his wrist, get some money out of him, then it’s business as usual.

  6. DRomo says:

    Bella oh sorry is a idiot for getting popped! I have no patience for DUI’s. Lose a friend in an accident and you will feel the same way!

    As for trading the farm for Cliff Lee? I wouldn’t do that. I do however think we should add something. I strongly believe that we are either getting better or you are getting worse.

    I couldn’t help but think the other night when we were up against “King” Felix… when was the last time we beat an ace? We seem to always accept losing to a Lincecum or Hernandez. We don’t flinch when Dan Haren shuts us down. That scares me. Especially when our ace is prone to lay an egg against a struggling team. I think we are fine but I sure am worried about ending up like many of the teams who ended up with the best record in MLB in the regular season. They usually end up watching the World Series from their couch!

  7. Mark Timmons says:

    Badger,

    Actually, I am off the pain meds. I am not a big narcotic guy.

    I have been up and down stairs 3 times today.

    Still at home. May wait a week to go back to the office.

  8. Mark Timmons says:

    Romo,

    I did a little resarch and he is what I found:

    Aces we beat:

    Peavy – 4/6 (Kuroda beat him 4-1)
    Harren – 4/12 (Wolf won 3-1)
    Danks – 6-23 (some may say Beurhle is the ace)

    Aces we lost to:

    Linceum – 4/29 (we were never in the game – lost 9-4)
    Hamels – 6/4 (shutout)
    Hernandez – Ditto

  9. DRomo says:

    I’ll give you that we have done better against Peavy of late and have beat Harren in the past. I know June 2 we faced Haren and he completely shut us down! We did come back against a sad AZ bullpen but it is the aces that are killing us. I know we have a some victories Mark.

    You can live in your stats and believe that we are on the same level with other pitching staffs that have won it all but I just don’t see it. I worry that this staff is wearing down and still inconsistent.

  10. Ken says:

    I thought Weisman’s post was a joke when I read it the other day and really think that it is a joke today.

    The High Number of pitches per at bat makes a pitcher tired sooner and puts more stress on their arm resulting in a low number of innings and that is one reason why Bills is dying after 90 pitches.

    Plus you have the low number of innings last year for most of these starters and the maximum increase in innings theory.

    Then you have the lack of long relievers to make up for those problems.

    Yes CERTAIN of the relief pitchers are over workded – No Mike Marshalls on this staff. Troncoso on pace for 104; Belisario 95; TOO many innings. With Brxton’s injury he is now back on pace for only 75-80 innings season. Now Mota is being overworked so we can see how long his fine pitching will last.

  11. Bill Russell says:

    Just a quick observation on something I heard after the Dodger game yesterday. Prime Ticket/West played some Dodger History and told about the 1988 season where Pedro Guerrero and Kirk Gibson wasn’t getting along in the early part of the 1988 season. The Dodgers made a trade with St. Louis for a pitcher by the name of John Tudor for Mr Guerrero. The rest is history, they went on to win the World Series in 1988. It worked for us in 1988…..

    • Michael says:

      If Ken says it, it must be wrong. Although very knowledgable with lots of inside info, Ken is usually talking out of his as. For him to say we don’t have the starters to go deep enough in games to win the whole banana is just BS.For him to say that Bills and Kuroda isn’t enough starters to go deep into games is crazy. In the postseason you have what a 3 man rotation, we don’t need 4 or 5 pitchers that go deep into games. Say we go Bills, Kuroda and Wolf, then we would have Clayton, Milton and possibly Schmidt[wink wink] to eat innings that would normally go to the bullpen. I just really never believe much that comes out of his[as Rome would put it] piehole.

  12. Mark Timmons says:

    John Tudor started 9 games for the Dodgers in 1988 and went 4-3 in 1988 with a 2.41 ERA. He won 6 games in 1989 and then left as a free agent. Pedro Guerrero was hurt in 1988 and missed many games, but in 1989, Guerrero earned serious MVP consideration, batting .311 with 17 home runs, a career-high 117 RBIs and a league-high 42 doubles – in the “dead ball era.”

  13. Ken says:

    Watch the streaking Rockies sweep the Dodgers and catch them by the end of August. They have 39 HRs in the last 30 days.

    Here are the “30 Day” Stats
    Smith .354
    Barnes .350
    Tulowitzki .338
    Atkins .333
    Hawpe .324
    Helton .313

    Cook 2.36
    Jimenez 2.95
    Hammel 4.33
    Marquis 4.83
    DeLaRosa 6.25

    Fogg 2.30
    Street 2.63
    Corpas 2.70
    Peralta 0.00
    Embree 6.14
    Daley 5.14

    If I am wrong I will provide dehydrated water for all

  14. Michael says:

    I say no to giving up the farm for a starter. The reason we are where we are and where we should be going is because of our up and coming flow of talent. Strong, stable franchises aren’t built and attained by trading tommorows stars for yesterdays heroes. Just my take. :}

  15. Mark Timmons says:

    You know, Ken is a really smart guy. He’s a CPA, and my CPA thinks he smarter than me, but in Ken’s case, it may be true. However, CPA’s look at numbers a little bit dirrerent, so I’ll reserve judgement.

    Colorado is very hot now, but I can’t see it continuing much longer…

    But we do have one really smart guuy on the board and that is Billy Russell, because he can read minds. I make a post and then he is so smart that he tells me what I actually said. Wow! Who knew?

    Hey Billy, read some minds and tell us who we should trade for who. Give us some inside information.

  16. Roger says:

    With the trade deadline about a month away, all teams in the hunt for the post season, will consider doing something to fix weak spots on the final 25 roster.

    So we come again to the old question: to fix a weak spot (hole) in the line-up (or two) — do you give up prospects, or hold them and only deal trash from the minors???

    Folks, this might be the year for a championship for the Dodgers. Ned’s job is to build a winner — and ownership feels in the end, if he did not do enough, he can loose his job.

    Post season is usually decided by pitching, not winning a game 11-10.

    Schmidt did not work out in the past like the G.M. thought he would.
    But other times those trades did.

    I think Ned will do what he has to do . . . and make a trade. He wants to win, and keep his job.

    I have said for some time, like others here: this team is not built for the post season.

    IMO, a team cannot just keep looking at the young prospects and be afraid to trade SOME OF THEM and have holes in the final 25 man squad. I will take the position players we have now, but not the pitchers on the roster.

    There is the possibility of 19 post season games. 19 games (5 + 7 + 7) Lee or another pitcher would really make it better for the Dodgers. Also, we might loose a few of the crew (like Martin, or Kemp, or Loney, or Ethier, etc.) because of future contract soon. And then not get near a championship for awhile.

    I really believe that teams IN the post season will do what they have to do to win. Will the Dodgers, or fall back to that “We don’t want to give up anyone to get anyone special!”

  17. mark says:

    I am
    for any trade
    that makes better!

    And doesn’t gut the farm!

  18. Ken says:

    I say hire Maddox and teach the current pitchers how to pitch.

    Trade Stults, Minton, Ohman, and $$$$ to the Nationals for John Lannon

  19. Roger says:

    Mark, no walking down the middle. If you want a strong, good starting pitcher, and even later in another trade, strong, good relief pitcher — you got to give up something strong, good down on the farm.

    Stult, Minton, Ohman is not going to bring Lee from Cleveland.

    For those good, strong starters out there — other possible post season teams will give what they have to do to make the trade.

    Key, is one for the now, this year, no doubt — of keep our strong prospects — and HOPE to win???

    Ken, I like the Maddox idea. But, it would not work to keep Honey and have Maddox as a special assistant to the manager for pitching. Honey and Maddox would not agree on how to finish the season. Causing more problems.

    Watch out for the Rockies.

  20. Badger says:

    Why isn’t Hershiser here? He could throw strikes. And if Maddox wants the job, he has it as far as I am concerned.

    Loney, Ethier, Martin and Kemp are part of what this teams needs to win it this year. We lose any of them we create a hole. If we can’t get a deal done with our farm, then I don’t see it getting done.

    Hey, maybe Schmidt can give us a couple of 7.2 starts soon. That would help.

    Lannan would work.

    I think we can forget Lee. “Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com has heard that the Indians are in no hurry to deal Cliff Lee and would have to be “completely overwhelmed” by an offer to make it work.

    This report jives with the many rumblings SI.com’s Jon Heyman has gathered, and the reasons behind Cleveland’s stubbornness make complete sense. Lee has an affordable $8MM option for 2010 and is currently the glue that holds the Indians’ rotation together.”

    I doubt Jed will overwhelm anybody.

    Dallas Braden anyone? Oakland is always looking for handfuls of young talent, and they aren’t going anywhere this year. Zach Duke?

    It’s still a month til the deadline. So much can happen in one month. We have payroll room, so, it could be something big if we continue to struggle.

  21. Blue Haze says:

    Boy if I tried to say half the shit that you guys are throwing around, there would be a call for my execution. Actually you guys are finally sounding like some guys having a few beers and having fun with each other. Me likey, that’s what these boards should be for, a little fun, accusations, blasts, and no hurt feelings. Ken, I am proud of you, don’t let the teasing get to ya. I might be chief teaser in here, but often I am takin’ way too seriously (or maybe I should say many take themselves way too seriously and get bent).

    Good stuff, I hope you all can feel the spirit of fun that I am trying to point out to ya all. Mark you have gotten damn serious lately, can’t even joke about pain meds, damn that is sad. It is much more fun when you don’t get your feelings hurt, in fact, much more fun when you return a fun-loving blast in return.

    So bow down and piss off everyone!

    I think Manny is not coming back not a moment too soon, we need a shot in the arm right bout now. Dropping 4 out of the last 6 games is not a trend that I want to see continue. Manny will loosen (losen) up the clubhouse and that will be a good thing. If he can light up the scoreboard that would be welcome as well.

    Saw Spamalot last night in SF, great time if you are Python fan (if not then you are a loser).

    Here’s to grown ups having some fun in here, cheers!

    • Michael says:

      I imagine that the thought of Manny coming back has been on the minds of all of the team. Hey, we have held on without you but we love you Man. Human nature just dictates that we have to show Manny that we need him so unconciously the team is of the mindset that I can relax a tad, Manny will be back at the end of the week.

  22. mark says:

    Ken can dish it out

    & take it too!

    It’s called disagreeing without being disagreeable!

  23. Blue Haze says:

    Exactly, now you are getting it. Nothing wrong with be disagreeable when it is in fun. Damn, those meds have stolen your personality (drugs can do that), where is our big, fun-loving monkey? I cast out your narcotics demons, “Come Out, ye foul narcotics demons!!!”

  24. Ken says:

    Friday is going to be a great day in Dodger History. Vargas 30 day rehab is up and he will be added to the 25 man roster. Oh and then there is that other guy.

  25. Bill Russell says:

    It sounds like I have been sentenced to death for my recap this morning. (Mind reader) Do I get a blind fold and a cigarette? My recap was having fun with my buddy Mark. I know he’s in pain so it was an opportunity to rub a little salt in his non pitching wounds.
    Mark, you will heal quicker with good pitching.

    If I were Ned, I would look into Zambrono, Lee, Sheets and Martinez. The Names Captain Badger mentioned wouldn’t be too bad either. Someone somewhere should be willing to make a deal with the Dogs. Stults, Hu, Leach or Elbert could be given up without without raping the farm. We should keep (R)Lambo and McDonald for the future. Again, Sheets or Martinez would only cost Franks money. I feel our rotation is weak and I can’t wait any longer for Schmidt. Is it just me or does it feel like we’ve been waiting for three years now.

    Would we have a real chance to go all the way in 2009 if our rotation was Lee, Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw and Wolf?

    • Michael says:

      Bill, you are way cool and I respect your thoughts. We are all family here but none the less at times we take things too personally. I just wanted to ask you, what you thought of the Pedro Martinez for Delino Deshields trade to put us over the top. We do not need 4 or 5 starters in the post.Peace, man :]

      • Bill Russell says:

        LOL Michael, Every Dodger fan would have wished that trade was never made. That’s why I want to trade for pitching so it doesn’t happen this time. PEACE and thanks for checking in.

  26. Mark Timmons says:

    REad my mind and you won’t have to ask.

    Lee is overrated, but he’s better than what we have, however the Indianas have no reason to let him go cheap. They are selling Cliff Lee the Cy Young winner, if you buy him at that price, you will be getting no better than a number 3.

    Do you want to pay for a 1 to get a 3?

  27. Bill Russell says:

    What’s your opinion of Zambrono the head case?

  28. Bill Russell says:

    Or Sheets on a flyer

  29. Mark Timmons says:

    Zamb can be really great. He’d play well for Joe, but the Cubs would want a bunch!

    Sheets?

    I don’t see him being a factor THIS year. Maybe next. He’s injury-prone, but has great stuff.

  30. Bill Russell says:

    Zambrono is being run out of Chicago, so why would be have to give up a bunch? Wouldn’t we be buying low in this case?

  31. Badger says:

    It would be nice to make the trade for the guy whose star is rising. We need somebody who is durable enough to make it to the finish line standing and good enough to pitch 7 or 8 every time out. Even a 4.5 ERA guy that has those qualities would work for me.

    I guess when mover dumped intense debate he dumped Captain Loose. I came back in as Badger without even noticing until I had posted. Doesn’t matter to me.

    I do like Captain Badger though.

  32. Blue Haze says:

    Maybe he was just silencing Capt. Loose’s dissent, but didn’t mind a dissenting Badger (maybe Mark is a tree-huggin’ animal lover).

    Michael, how the hell can you accuse people of taking things too personally in here. Oh yeah, you have been posting for more than a week and probably noticed. Glad to have you aboard (maybe relieved is a better word).

    Food for Thought: Has Mark become the boards Mr. Softie, inquiring minds want to know? (now we will see if the drugs are talking).

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