What Now?

There is only one game today across all of baseball, and that is the MLB All-Star Game. There are six (6) Dodgers on the squad, including Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Clayton Kershaw, who are all starting the game. Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, and Freddie Freeman are also on the team, but Will Smith should have also been there. It will be poetic justice if Will Smith is named the NL All-Star Catcher after the season is over. Still, six All-Stars is pretty special. The Yankees, Blue Jays, and Braves also have six All-Stars.

Of course, Andrew Friedman is kicking the tires on Juan Soto and Luis Castillo, but I have a great deal of difficulty in believing he will trade the requisite prospects for either player. Personally, I think Soto made a mistake in turning down $440 Million from the Nats, but it could be it is not about the money… maybe it’s about winning… and winning year-after-year as the Dodgers do. Still, I think it is a dope-fiend move to gut the farm right about now when you could save all those players to play with Soto in 2025 when he is a free agent. I think there is very little chance the Dodgers will trade for Soto or Castillo.

Dynasties are no longer gauged by consecutive championships due to playoff expansion, making it a roll of the dice. Dynasties are determined by how long you are relevant and in the race for the World Series Championship, and the Dodgers are baseball’s current longest-reigning dynasty! Chew on that. Friedman has worked too hard to build up the farm system… only to gut it. Forgetaboutit!

Did you notice that the Yankees closer is on the All-Star Team and that he is 29 years old and has a 4.10 career ERA in 157 games? The Yankees and the Dodgers are two of the best teams at taking failed pitchers and turning them into something special. Witness: Anderson, Phillips, Almonte, Heaney, and others. That is the “Path to Success”, not gutting the farm!

The Dodgers are 60-30 with a 9-1 record in their last ten games. They have gotten here with a plethora of players on and off the IL at various times. AJ Preller and the Padres may feel the need to make a “dope-fiend move” and trade for Soto… it won’t help! In a couple of years, the Dodgers will just take him! This team is too good to make a dope fiend trade now.

There will likely be some player movement after the break. I look for the following:

  • Damon Keith to move to Great Lakes;
  • Emmet Sheehan, Alex De Jesus, and Diego Cartaya to move to Tulsa;
  • Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller to move to OKC;
  • Miguel Vargas to move to LA; and
  • Dustin May, Carson Fulmer, and others to swarm LA as the summer progresses.

The Dodgers don’t need no stinking trades!

The HR Derby was entertaining. The Old Man hung in there… but youth (and talent) prevailed

Fearless Predictions:

  • Clayton Kershaw will win the NL ERA Title;
  • Max Muncy will hit .229 on the season;
  • Cody Bellinger will hit 26 HR;
  • Freddie Freeman will win the NL MVP; and
  • The Dodgers will go to the World Series.

This article has 34 Comments

    1. I was going to point that out, but he corrected himself in the next sentence. HR derby was entertaining when Albert was in it. That kid Rodriguez has some kind of talent and he is only 21!

  1. Soto just turned down $440M, then goes out and takes home the Dinger Derby crown. Talk about a cool cat!

    I’m not sure any team has the requisite prospects to trade for him.

    When was the last time a player comparable to Soto was traded and what did it look like? Look no further than…

    Marlins trade Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Tigers for Dallas Trahern, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio de la Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and Mike Rabelo.

    The problem with trading away Soto or Miggy is you’re not going to get 3 prospects that are going to be stars and another 3 that will be solid major leaguers because it isn’t often any team that has that kind of prospect quality to trade with.

    I wonder how that Marlins-Tigers trade looked in the trade simulator.

    I got the idea for writing yesterday’s post because we have such a roster crunch coming and so many good prospects. Not because we have so many needs. I hate doing trade proposals because they are usually so ridiculous.

    Mark’s right, at some point we’re going to have to reload and turn some prospects into everyday players. But at the same time, you can’t hold onto everyone. Just like everyone else, I hold our own prospects in high regard.

    By comparing the Miggy trade, I would think that a prospect package that includes Pages, Busch, and Pepiot would produce a better result for the Nats than the Miggy deal did for the Marlins. The Nats want MLB ready players. I wonder how many teams can beat that deal and still lineup with the Nats needs. Catchers excluded because of the K-Bear deal.

    Would anyone part with either May or Buehler as the headliner coming back to the Nats? Man, Soto would look really good hitting behind Mookie and Trea, right in front of Freeman and fit nicely in left field.

    It will be fun watching six Dodgers in the All-Star game tonight. I just hope our pitchers don’t go longer than an inning each. I still feel like Smith and Lux were big snubs as their counterparts that made it aren’t as good this season. Same with Julio, if he didn’t fall on his face in his start against the Cubbies.

    When the trade deadline comes and goes, I would happy to land Ian Happ. But, at the same time, I’m happy with the Lamb/Thompson platoon and the thought of Vargas taking over left field duties.

    I would also be happy with landing Castillo, but that rotation is already really crowded with potential May and Buehler returns.

    I would be really happy to get a useful piece or two for all those guys we’re going to have to cut in order to make room for all those guys on the 60 day IL.

  2. AF is a genius and will not make a dope fiend move. Next year he will need to bring in more young pitching to take over for the veteran FA’s he will not sign (Pepiot, Miller, Knack etc.).

    Will we see Treinen, May, Kahnle, V-Gone in the BP in the second half?

    While Preller and Farhan try any number of machinations to acquire MLB talent, they’re looking at AF and wondering how in the hell he does it. The Giants this year are what we thought they were last year, but the collapse never happened in 2021. This year, they’re a collection of old veterans past their prime (Longoria, Belt, Ruf, Flores and Crawford, et al.) and a newbie who, as of right now, hasn’t blossomed as they hoped (Bart).

    The NL West goes through LA no and for the foreseeable future. How about an all-star MVP award for Mookie, Trea or Freddie in their home stadium and in front of their fans. I can see that happening.

    Go Dodgers!

  3. Who do the Mets have to compare with a Dodger package to get Soto? Nats may not want to trade in division but that may be their only option. Also how does Pages compare to Diaz who we traded to get Machado. He just seems over valued to me. And if you get Soto now, that’s 3 relatively cheap playoff runs before he’s a free agent. We’re built to win now. Very enticing. I’d give up Busch, Vargas, Pepiot, Knack plus. But not Miller.

    1. Agreed the huge value is the 2.5 seasons and 3 post seasons before free agency. Then evaluate the balance of the team and see if long term makes sense. With Soto under team control at arbitration level pay during this period and a 4-5 year extension of TT, they can win one or more WS. And still have the money to extend the young starters and position players (Smith, Lux) within their team control years.

  4. I honestly don’t think the package to get Soto is going to be as crazy as everyone thinks. We got a half season of Scherzer and a season and a half of Trea Turner for Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz. IMO it’s going to be a top prospect and a couple mid-tier guys to get it done or a top prospect and a major league-ready player. I doubt the Nats would want Cartaya necessarily as they already have their catcher of the future but Miller would certainly need to be included. If they did trade for Soto what are the chances they include Lux and then move Mookie to 2nd so Soto can man right? With consistent playing time it wouldn’t be long until he was a gold glover there, it’s his natural position. I might be in the minority but I hope we get him….even if we don’t sign him to an extension having him, Mooke, and Freeman for the next 3 post season runs is extremely enticing. I do agree with Mark tho that AF will kick the tires but most likely not make that move.

  5. Great article by BP yesterday.

    I think the biggest impediment to any team trading for Soto is Bora$. He’s honestly been great at being the most hard nosed agent and getting the most value for his clients, but his reputation works against him.

    Why on Earth would any team give up a king’s ransom in prospects to just see Soto walk in two years? Bora$ is notorious for advising against extensions, preferring a highest bidder auction in free agency, but some agreement on a framework for an extension would be, for me, a prerequisite for making that trade. I think it was for AF when he traded for Mookie.

    So, by turning down that contract, he’s limited the market of available suitors to: 1. teams desperate enough win now by trading away their future for two years of Soto, 2. teams with a good enough farm system to make an enticing deal, 3. teams with enough money to think they can sign him in two years. Preller seems capable of pulling off a deal like that. Farhan is too shrewd and is using the Dodgers as a template.

    Someone made a good point yesterday. The Dodgers don’t really need Castillo, but imagine the dodgers player development and coaching staff getting ahold of Castillo and doing to him what they’ve done with Heaney and Anderson. To me that makes the trade possibility enticing even though I doubt it happens and we don’t really need him. If AF is able to fleece the reds like he did with the Puig trade, then I’m down.

    The Dodgers need to keep a pipeline of pitcher prospects if they want to preserve that dynasty. Urias is a Bora$ client. He’s UFA in 2024, so expect him to be gone. I like Pepiot as another possible Gonsolin. I’d rather not include him in any trade scenario.

    1. Dodgers will be in the playoffs for the next 3 years. Why wouldn’t they be willing to rent a young Reggie Jackson, Ted Williams, or Fill in tge blank generational player at arbitration salary levels? Any team in LA’s position should consider it. This is not a one or two man game like basketball. But having this guy in your 9 man lineup everyday sure makes the going much easier

  6. Forgive the sloppiness, but I’m pressed for time.

    The last six trades, Dodgers related, from the unbeliviably fun (but obviously not fool-proof) trade simulator:

    Trade One:
    Dodgers GET
    Juan Soto 176.8
    Total Value: 176.80

    Nationals GET
    Diego Cartaya 56.2, Dustin May 28.2, Bobby Miller 28.7, Jose Ramos 10
    Total Value: 123.10

    trade 2;

    Dodgers GET
    Carlos Correa 15.4

    Twins GET
    Gavin Stone 19.1

    TRADE 3:

    Guardians GET
    Maddux Bruns 6.9, Jesus Galiz 1.7
    Total Value: 8.60

    Dodgers GET
    Zach Plesac 7.7, Franmil Reyes 0.2
    Total Value: 7.90

    TRADE 4:

    Nationals GET
    Diego Cartaya 56.2 (Editor’s note: can’t have too many catchers!), Dustin May 28.2, Andy Pages 25.3, Ryan Pepiot 18.2, Gavin Stone 19.1, Miguel Vargas 26.9
    Total Value: 173.90

    Dodgers GET
    Victor Arano 2.4, Juan Soto 176.8
    Total Value: 179.20

    TRADE 5
    Dodgers GET
    Luis Castillo 41.2, Brandon Drury 6, Tyler Mahle 21.2, Tommy Pham 3.3
    Total Value: 71.70

    Reds GET
    Bobby Miller 28.7, Andy Pages 25.3, Ryan Pepiot 18.2
    Total Value: 72.20

    TRADE 6

    Angels GET
    Diego Cartaya 56.2, Bobby Miller 28.7, Nick Nastrini 2.7, Andy Pages 25.3
    Total Value: 112.90

    Dodgers GET
    Shohei Ohtani 107.6, Jose Suarez 4.6
    Total Value: 112.20

  7. Maybe 3 or 4 guys. Angels need pitchers and infielders …
    BTW, I found it intriguing that this Louisiana Tech guy Taylor fell to the 8th round:

    Young hit and hit and hit in college, including .364/.506/.644 with 23 doubles and 12 home runs, earning first-team All-American status as a senior. He had more walks (198) than strikeouts (153) in his college career. Young stole 28 bases in 30 tries this year, and led the nation in runs scored each of the last two seasons.

    More walks than Ks? Fast enough to steal 28 bases in 30 tries? Sounds like a potential leadoff hitter.

  8. For those hoping for robo umps, MLB has reportedly decided they won’t be implemented until the 2024 season at the earliest.

  9. Look, I know that all prospects do not pan out, but the more you have, the more likely that a few pan out… and the Dodgers have a ton of them. I remember when Clayton was in the minors and when Adrian Beltre was a rookie, and people wanted to trade them for established players.

    Paul Konerko for Jeff Shaw.

    Pedro for DeShields.

    At some point, you have to stay the course. The Dodgers have a Damn-Good team and do not need anything!

    Stay the course, and a few of the players we want to trade will be stars… maybe not the ones we think, but it is a numbers game. If the Dodgers want Soto, then sign him for $$$$ because you will have to anyway. Don’t give up players!

  10. Just a thought. How interested would we be in Reynolds and Bednar from the Pirates? Their total salaries are about 7.50M. Would they take Bellinger( if we paid his entire salary for this year and next ?) in addition to some of our prospects? Who would they want and who
    would we be willing to send them?

    1. Bellinger? No! It’s like trading Andre Jackson…

      You would have to pay a ton in prospects.

  11. Today the Dodgers drafted Phil Nevin manager of the Angels , son Kyle and ex Dodger Eric Karros’ son Jared.

  12. Everybody knows Bellinger has to shorten his swing except Bellinger. Someday he will see that also and hopefully soon while he still has his speed. I don’t want to give up on him yet as I believe he’ll improve his worth offensively this season.
    Man is Joc making a statement or what? I’m glad he’s doing whatever he’s doing in SF Obviously Giants are a better fit for him.

  13. I wish he would Quas but I’ve lost my faith in him. He swings from his heals and doesn’t shorten his swings even with two strikes. h’s not stupid but I think too thick headed. I know he’s had injuries but in the last three years including this year he’s had 833 AB’s with an average of exactly .200. I have more confidence in Muncy because at least he walks a lot.

  14. As for ‘Fearless Predictions’—I believe best shot is we go to Series. The other 4–not so much

  15. @RichieF, BReynolds is a heck of a player, aside from the batting average his OPS is over 800 excluding his dreadful Covid season. Your idea is something AF will do. But Mark is right, it will cost some prospects.

    Cody needs a change of scenery. Maybe he encounter some coach that just get to right him. It simply don’t look like it will be in Dodgers uniform.

  16. Talking about Belli, it seems like people know he has the necessary talent, but the swing/approach isn’t working. In a recent interview with Lux, he was asked about his turnaround and credits his “Uncle” after having conversations with him over the phone. Maybe it’s the hitting coaches that need a change of scenery…

  17. I love the talk about Brian Reynolds. Would y’all rather send the prospect package required to get Soto to the Pirates for Reynolds and Hayes, or spend it on just Soto?

    Who really thinks the Twins are going to trade Correa while they’re in first place?

  18. Did Gonsolin think he was pitching on Monday night instead of Tuesday? He’s gonna be in big demand in next year’s hr derby! I’d have given him the MVP award since he gave up 2 bombs. MLB really should sub in a futures team for the NL.

  19. I saw this posted above and it turn my stomach.
    trade 2;

    Dodgers GET
    Carlos Correa 15.4

    Twins GET
    Gavin Stone 19.1

    Please do not ever suggest giving any of the cheaters the honor of wearing a Dodger’s uniform

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