Roster Locks

The Pitching Staff

As Spring Training heads down the home stretch, the pitching still is very much a work in progress. If it were to end today, Tony Gonsolin and Dennis Santana would likely make the opening day roster. Jimmy Nelson would be on it as well. Santana is a case of a player maturing, adding some weight and strength, and just getting it. Many of us wondered why he was still on the roster… now we know. He has not been scored upon this spring.

Corey Knebel will be on the roster and insofar as the lefties in the bullpen, we know that Victor Gonzalez is on the team. The battle left in the the bullpen is for another lefthander: Will it be Alexander or Cleavinger? Cleavinger may be slightly ahead, but it is yet to be decided.

There were 28 roster moves yesterday and right about now, this is the way the team looks with 45 players on the roster.

Roster Locks

In my opinion, the following pitchers are locks to make the team (barring injury):

  1. Kershaw
  2. Bauer
  3. Buehler
  4. Price
  5. Urias
  6. Gonsolin
  7. Nelson
  8. Jansen
  9. Knebel
  10. Gonzalez
  11. Treinen

I am assuming that Graterol and Kelly will not make the team out of Spring Training, due to injury or whatever is going on. The Dodgers are very tight-lipped about things like that. I don’t like it, but I know why they do it. That leaves two spots left. Mitch White, Joe Kelly, and Brusdar Graterol will not likely make the team.

That leaves Dennis Santana, Garrett Cleavinger, Scott Alexander, and Dustin May vying for the final two spots. I can make an argument for any of them. It just needs to play out! So far, I have Dennis Santana filling the 12th spot and Scott Alexander filling the final spot. It’s late… early, so who knows? We shall see! May and Cleavinger are also in the mix.

The Position Players

I think they will go with 13 pitchers and 13 position players. Matt Beaty was not a lock to make the team early in the Spring – he is now! Edwin Rios was a lock earlier and now he isn’t with just 2 hits in 17 AB’s. Zach McKinstry and Gavin Lux are also locks.

The starters are Smith, Muncy, Lux, Seager, Turner, Pollock, Bellinger (providing he returns healthy – which is supposed to happen today), and Betts. Barnes, Taylor, Beaty, and McKinstry are also locks. That is 12 players, which leaves one spot open. DJ Peters stock is again sinking and if Bellinger is healthy, DJ has ZERO chance of making the roster.

Mr. Light Tower Power

That leaves the final spot up for grabs between Edwin Rios, Matt Davidson, and Sheldon Noisy. Davidson is not on the 40-man roster, so that would seem to preclude him. Rios could win the job by getting hot at the right time, but there is something I like about having a hitter like Noisy on the bench when there are two out and runners on base… and you need a run or two. He has shown me several times that he can get the bat on the ball and drive in RISP. He has no extra-base hits, but has had two really big hits. Additionally, he is more versatile than Rios.

I also really like Rios and I think the last roster spot boils down to who is the hottest (or coldest) at the end. May the best man win! I am rooting for them both and both Noisy and Rios will play roles on this team… this year!

The Zombies

This article has 57 Comments

  1. They have to open a roster spot for Nelson if he makes it. I think he would get Kahnle’s spot since he will be on the IL and is not on there yet. I think Rios is making the team no matter what. Just my opinion. They know what he is capable of.

  2. Unless Noisy goes crazy big these last 2weeks I think Rios is in. Good news is Lux and Mckinstry look ready to contribute in a big way! And I agree Mark, Noisy will contribute this year. He’s a grinder! Really good pickup

  3. I like May but think he is best served by working on things in AAA. Having him relieve and possibly spot start during the year would be a disservice to him long term.

  4. The thing is, May really wants to make the team and says he would be fine in the pen this year.

    1. Totally disagree Mark. The kid is a starter period. He was not awe inspiring out of the pen last season. Gonsolin is much better suited for the swing man role. I totally believe he benefits more from pitching regularly than he does coming out of the pen now and then or making a spot start. His stuff is good, but his mechanics get out of whack and boom, he is in trouble. It may have been the long inning that got him out of whack yesterday, but he was immediately not the same pitcher. They will do him a huge disservice using him out of the pen when he is so much better starting.

  5. Just saw this from Jorge Castillo re Dodgers BP plans

    Dave Roberts yesterday on if the #Dodgers plan on carrying two lefties in the bullpen to start the season: “I don’t know if it’s something that we have to. We’re going to go with the best available option or the best available player.”

    I think one factor on the last BP spot will be the form of the MiLB camp in April. If AAA was playing their season it would be a much easier call to send Dustin to work on pitches in AAA. With no AAA season until May, it may come down to whether Dustin would benefit more from the alternate site or pitching in relief for 1 month.

    If Alexander or Cleavinger don’t earn the second LHRP spot than Dustin May take that last spot.

    1. Excellent point. What is the reason again as to why AAA doesn’t start right away? I see little value in May being at the infamous alternate site. He’s certainly one of the best 13 pitchers. If there was AAA going on, that’s another story.

  6. The Athletic on Gavin Lux:

    President Andrew Friedman: “Gavin is in a great headspace after his uneven 2020 season. His swing is in a really good place after getting out of whack last year and he is playing a really good middle infield. We remain very optimistic in terms of the player he will be and look forward to him helping us win a lot of games in 2021 and beyond.”

    Roberts: “Gavin has got clarity of mind this spring. There’s a process in place, (and his) mechanics are sound, which has bred real confidence.”

    1. So, with Lux being the starting 2B, that means that 4 of the Dodgers 8 starters are LH (Seager, Muncy & Bellinger as well. McKinstry and Beaty are both LH as well. Do the math: That’s 6 LH Hitters. If Rios keeps sucking, I cannot see the Dodgers having 7 of 13 position players being LH. I guess they could, but I don’t see it.

      1. Could you explain to me why you think that they wouldn’t have one more than half of their position players hitting from the left side when there are more right handed pitchers in the league than lefties?

        I’m not saying they will go that way, but having one extra left handed hitter certainly isn’t going to influence that decision.

  7. So what’s the rotation?
    I’d take Price up on his offer to relieve, thus adding a lefty to the pen. If Urias continues to struggle opening games, he and Price could swap roles.
    May > Alexander and Cleavinger. Obviously. Plus, L/R seems less important with 3-batter minimum.
    And with Graterol and Kelly delayed, May would supply the greatest heat.

    1. Urias really didn’t struggle. It was just bad luck. Pure and simple, dumb, stupid, bad luck! 😉

  8. Bellinger starting and batting 5th. Kershaw starting and hitting 9th. Bauer is supposed to piggyback Kersh today. Beaty hitting 8th playing LF. Muncy in the cleanup spot. No DH.

    1. If I understand correctly, Kershaw will take the first AB in the 9th spot than that spot will convert to a DH spot for rest of game. Spring training …

      1. Since the pitchers did not hit last year, I would advise them to just swing three times outta’ their cleats and hope that “Blind Squirrels Find Nuts”

  9. My thoughts on Rio making the team is based on the fact that the Dodgers have been lefty heavy for quite a few years and balancing the bench L-R has never seemed to be a priority. Rios is obviously the better option behind Turner. That is what he did last year, and I have little doubt he will do it again. Neuse has not shown any kind of power, but he has shown a lot of versatility. But I still think the Dodgers are not worried about Rios’ production in the spring. That matters for someone like Peters who has had very little AAA experience. Going to AAA is not going to help Rios at all. He has proved he can hit there. As for May, the AAA and double A guys will be at Camelback. They will be able to play games against the White Sox farmhands as well as other teams AAA guys who are close. 2 teams in Surprise and 2 more just down the road with Seattle and SD in the same complex just up the 101. Also 2 more teams in Goodyear. They do not even have to go to the other side of town since 8 other teams train on the west side. For this reason alone, I think May will stay in camp. I also think they do not need 5 starters most of April. That will come when they have fewer off days in May. I also think they have a really good chance of not getting in all 4 games in Colorado opening the season. If the weather stays anything like it has, there will be at least one lost to bad conditions. As of today, Coors field is covered in snow. I think they break camp with 13 pitchers and 13 position players. 5 starters and 8 relievers. And that gives them 5 bench players. Rios, Beaty, McKinstry, Taylor and Barnes.

    1. Not that Friedman is actively shopping now, but Rios strikes me as one of those guys who could fit a package for Matt Chapman or Jose Reyes. His power is tantalizing, and I hope he gets more of a chance this season backing Turner and Muncy.
      Demoting him to the minors at this stage would reduce his value as a trade chip, signaling that the Dodgers really don’t believe in his ability. (No idea if such thoughts cross Friedman’s mind as he anticipates the midseason trade market.)
      Turner makes most of the plays he can reach, but he lacks the range of the young stars. Given his experience, I think he’d be an upgrade over Muncy at 1B. (Muncy has some versatility, but someday he’ll be a fine DH.)

  10. I think the final 2 position player spots are down to Peters vs Neuse and Rios vs Beaty.

    Neuse is more versatile than Peters and makes way more contact than Peters. Therefore I think Neuse makes the team.

    Rios vs Beaty is a hard one to predict. They both play 1B and 3B but Beaty also plays LF. Beaty makes more contact than Rios but Rios has more power.

    I think 12 are locks. Smith, Barnes, Muncy, Lux, Seager, Turner, Betts, Bellinger, Pollock, Taylor, McKinstry, Neuse.

    Last spot Rios vs Beaty. I think Rios has the advantage. Both have options, so if one goes into a consistent slump we can see “musical chairs” between the two using the options.

    Peters will get called up during the season and contribute though.

    1. I respect your opinion but there is no way Neuse is a lock.

      Hell, we may still be looking to upgrade the bench for all we know.

      1. OK I understand. I just think that since we have two superstars in the outfield Betts and Bellinger and that Chris Taylor plays a very good left-field that Peters isn’t really needed. Therefore the only way Neuse doesn’t make the team is if both Rios and Beaty make the team. I just don’t see both of them making the team they’re both left-handed and also not as versatile as Neuse.

        That’s why I think Neuse is a lock.

        1. Fair. I think Rios is in despite the warning signs. I also think D-Rob really likes Beaty.

          Neuse will be next man up. He can work with our guys for a few weeks.

          Other option is trading Beaty.

          1. All that don’t make it will be a phone call away and will contribute this year.

            A good problem to have.

  11. After the first two batters today, the Dodgers announce they have optioned Kershaw to OKC and Kickham will take his place as opening day starter.

    Third batter bunts and is thown out.

    Fourth batter hits a line drive that almost takes Seager’s hand off.

    Mr. K. is not fooling anyone. However, it’s spring training.

    1. People need to prepare themselves for the real possibility that Kershaw declines further this year. Last year he got a mild Driveline bump in velo. This year so far it’s down again. and he’s already been a scratch due to back issues I predict he’ll have an ERA and FIP over 3.00 and he’ll, at times, be vulnerable to homers.

  12. I’m preparing myself that Kersh will have an era under 2.50 and we will win back to back championships!

  13. My son had a tournament in Scottsdale this weekend. Unfortunately, they finished 1 win away from making the championship game. Fortunately, being eliminated meant we were able to take in both Sunday and Monday’s Dodger games.

    A couple of takeaways.

    1. Gavin Lux is dialed in. He went 4 for 5 in the two games and all 4 hits were hard line drives. Interestingly, all but one of his hits this spring have been singles (one double) and he has zero walks. I remember when Gavin turned the corner in 2018 in Rancho. He didn’t have a spectacular start to the season. But then he started making consistent hard contact. A couple weeks later he was mashing balls to and over the fence with regularity and was moved up to AA where he continued the same. As long as Gavin is barreling up, the power is going to come. I think he may come out of the regular season gates with gusto.

    It’s fun to speculate who will get the last roster spot. But I don’t think it’s terribly predictable. Dj Peters started off hot and has cooled down. But if you’ve ever watched him play, he’s very very streaky. When he’s cold he is cold. When he is hot he is on fire. He’s got a little Joc Pederson in him.

    Sentimentally, I’d like to see Davidson make the team. Even though I know it’s unlikely. He’s a local guy and is extremely excited to have a shot with the Dodgers. I’m also bias towards Dj, as some of you know. He’s a great guy.

    It will be interesting to see how this goes down as they start sending players down in the next week.

    And it was unbelievably satisfying to actually go to a game again. First in person game since September of 2019. My son got 4 balls yesterday (none had the ST logo, unfortunately). Gave all but 1 away to kids and other fans. Austin Barnes tossed him the ball that Dustin May warmed up with. That was the keeper. Unfortunately, no autographs due to covid. But we did get to talk to a couple players who waved us down after the game.

    I am glad 2020 is in the rear view mirror.

  14. Ok, lets get something perfectly clear. What you saw from Kershaw today is not the in season Kershaw. So his velocity is down. No big deal. Muncy has hit 3 balls hard all spring, and you do not see people saying he is done. Turner has not homered. Bellinger has had 3 at bats, and he changed his batting stance again by the way. The veterans know what they need to do to be ready and that is what they are doing. Worrying about results in spring training is a waste of energy. Should we be pulling our hair out because Bauer gave up a HR to the #9 hitter? Please. Spring training is more about the fringe players than it is a vet like Kersh. DJ Peters may K a lot, but the kid is a really good outfielder. I get what you are saying about Neuse Eric, I really do. But what he lacks is experience at the MLB level. So does McKinstry. But McKinstry plays more positions than Neuse, Rios has more power, and Beaty has a good rep as a pinch hitter. Taylor is going to play the infield more than the outfield this year if Pollock stays healthy. Neuse will be a phone call away at OKC in case of emergency. But he has shown no power in spring so far. They know what Rios can do.

  15. Since the beginning of the preseason I have been reading that DJ Peters and Neuse could and maybe should make the team, but I don’t think, not at the beginning of the season, I think this will be the bench to start
    Barnes
    Taylor
    McKinstry
    Rios
    Davidson
    Taylor and McKinstry (Left and Right) can play in the outfield,
    Rios and Davidson (Left and Right) the corners of the infield.
    And I think May is going to be on the team, at least until the Triple A season starts or until Kelly or Graterol gets out of IL

  16. My predictions and hopes for the OD roster.

    Starters: Smith, Muncy, Lux, Turner, Seager, Pollock, Bellinger and Betts.

    Bench: Barnes, Taylor, Beaty, McKinstry and Peters.

    Starting Pitching:
    Kershaw, Buehler, Bauer, Price, Urias

    Bullpen: Gonsolin, May, Jansen, Treinen, Nelson, Gonzalez, Cleavinger, Knevel

    Lux earns it, Peters showed he is a very good outfielder, Beaty good hitter.

    Just my picks for what they are worth.

  17. I think Bauer gave up a couple of bombs just so Kersh wouldn’t feel so bad. What a teammate!

  18. I don’t know if the Dodgers are allowed to trade Nelson prior to June xx, 2021 but if they could then a package of Ruiz and Nelson could bring back something intriguing. Include Muncy and maybe get a package back from the Yankees that includes Voit. If nothing else, it gives the Dodgers another righty bat and the Yankees another lefty bat and in both cases better balances each team’s lineup.

    1. The problem is that Muncy is better than Voit… and we have to give up Ruiz and Nelson Put down the crack pipe!

      I get that Muncy is your least favorite player (for reasons I cannot comprehend) but why give away 2 more players just to get rid of the guy who has the second-best WAR of all 1B over the past 3 years?

  19. Some fans are like the waves of the sea, they come and go in their moods, a player has a bad day and they want to trade or send him to the minors, others have a good day and they want to give him a contract extension for several years , take it easy.

  20. The Dodgers can trade any player any time Bum. Nelson is on a minor league deal. Now we do not know if he has an opt out option on the deal if he is not called up like Morrow did a few years ago. But any player can be traded up to the deadline. They can also be waived and released. I do not believe that how he is doing in spring is going to change the fact that Muncy will be on the team. He had a terrible regular season, just like Joc, and both turned it around in the playoffs. Muncy and the rest of the regulars are there to get reps, results do not matter. But they matter for guys like Neuse, Davidson, Peters. The team knows what Rios and Beaty can do. McKinstry has been considered the utility guy since the end of last year. Neuse is making the decision harder. Peters started out well, but has floundered the last several games. Davidson has shown nothing so far beyond having power. They knew that. Today was simply a bad game. I have seen worse.

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