On the first day of a New Year, Dodger fans should have more reason to believe we WILL return to the World Series on the 20th Anniversary of our last title.  Of course, with true baseball fans there are generally two schools of thought:

1. “If you look at our team on paper (and through jaded eyes), we should win it  all this year”; or
2. “We just don’t look that good this year and there’s no way we can do it with what we have.”

For the past twenty years, we have been Option #2 most of the time.   Being an optimist by nature, I prefer to see the glass “half full” and I believe that in baseball, “hope springs eternal” in the Spring.  Part of the joy of baseball for me is to consider the prospects of my team each Spring.  While you may think it’s “through jaded eyes,”  I think we truly have the opportunity to be the elite team in the NL in 2008!  I think we had an opportunity last year, if Jason Schmidt had stayed healthy (and maybe if Gonzo had ‘roided up again, allegedly) and the fact that we had the best record in baseball in late July is indicative that we had talent.  However, for reasons we may never fully comprehend, the Dodgers disintegrated down the stretch which created a lot of grief for all Dodger fans (except those naysayers who said “I told you so.”).  I am here to tell you that we may be the team to beat in the NL this year!  Let’s think about what we have this year that we may have been lacking last year:

• Russ Martin has established himself as one of the Top Catchers in baseball and should get even better over the next few years (I believe Torre will hit him #2);
• James Loney and Matt Kemp have been tested and both have proved they are major league caliber, maybe even All-Star caliber - both should improve in 2008.  I see both players at around .300/25-30 HR;
• Andy Jones will patrol CF with the best glove ever (at least since Willie Davis) and is playing for a new contract.  I expect him to rebound and have a monster year (can you say 38 HR?);
• Andy LaRoche is the real deal.  Even Bill James expects him to put up excellent numbers this year;
• Jeff Kent wants a ring and can still play.  With Abreu as his caddy, I expect him to be as good, probably better, than last year due to more protection around him;
• The Wild Card is Raffy Furcal.  By all indications he is healthy, in his contract year  and in the prime of his baseball career, I expect him to put up a monster season (.300/20 HR/45 SB/130 Runs).  Jones and Furcal are friends which should help them both out (a little friendly competition);
• Andre Ethier is the kind of player who could step up his game a bit this year.  .300 and 20 HR is a reasonable expectation;
• Our starting rotation is likely the best in the NL, especially if Jason Schmidt is healthy.   Consider this rotation:

1. Billingsley
2. Penny
3. Lowe
4. Kuroda
5. Schmidt, Kershaw, Loaiza, Kuo, McDonald (one will rise to the top)

I think that rotation is capable of 70-75 wins! 

Bullpen:

• Park
• Kuo
• Loaiza
• Beimel
• Brazoban
• Proctor
• Broxton
• Saito

…. with Elbert, Miller, Meloan, Stults, Hull and others at the ready.

Lineup:

1. Furcal  SS
2. Martin  C
3. Kemp  RF
4. Loney  1B
5. Jones  CF
6. Ethier  LF
7. Kent  2B
8. LaRoche  3B

I like the balance of hitting Loney #4, even though he’s not your prototypical cleanup hitter.  He did fine there last year, and I like Ethier at #6 with Kent behind him (another L-R thing).  We know that LaRoche is patient and will take a walk, so at #8, he could have a .380+ OB%.   Another thing - EVERYONE in that lineup is capable of hitting 20+ HR.  180 to 200 HR out of a starting lineup would be incredible!

Subs: 

• Bennett (Good defensively, not much else, but then again, he shouldn’t play too much)
• Nomar (One last time?)
• Abreu  (Future 2B?)
• Young (SwitchHITTER with emphasis on “hitter”)
• Pierre (not a bad 4th OF)
• Repko (this guy is good, fast and hungry)

Now, I think it’s likely we could see a trade or two (involving Pierre and/or Loaiza) but I think our main players are set.  This is the year it could all come together.  We have a manager to keep it tight and loose (you need both) in Joe Torre. Grady Little was a nice guy, but Joe Torre is respected.  We need that!  Guys are going to have to realize that this is a powerful lineup with decent speed.  Someone will have to hit 7th and 8th.  I could see Jeff Kent driving in 90 runs in the #7 hole.

There are injury concerns: 

• Can Furcal come back 100%?
• How is Lowe’s hip?  No information has been forthcoming….
• Will Schmidt be 100%?
• Is Brazoban recovered?
• Will Kuo be healthy?

The facts are - we have excellent fallback positions in other players should these guys not be fully recovered.   We will have Kershaw, Meloan and McDonald at the ready in AAA.  We have Hu and Abreu.  We have Pierre and we have as good a 1-4 rotation as there is in the NL.  We have young guys wanting to make their marks (Kenp, Loney, Abreu, Martin, LaRoche, Young and Ethier).  We have old guys who want to win the big one (Bennett, Kent, Lowe, Schmidt, Park and Nomar).  We have guys playing for a big payday (Jones and Furcal).  We  have a coaching staff who has been there, done that and we are the fans ready to root them on. 

No analysis is complete without a comparison of the defense, so let’s look at that quickly:

• 1B  - James Loney - we will benfit by having him there all year - He will win a Gold Glove soon
• 2B - Jeff Kent - Of course he has lost range and Tony Abreu will spell him at the end of games, but no one turns the double play better than him
• SS - Rafael Furcal - No less an authority than Greg Maddux praised Furcal’s defensive ability.  When you factor in his arm, he is a guy who could (in the right sitaution) win a Gold Glove.  It’s more likely that he won’t, but he is a superior defensive player.
• 3B - Andy LaRoche - I am going to choose to believe that 3B is his job to lose.  He has a plus arm and slightly abvove average range, plus an above average glove.
• LF - Andre Ethier - Again, I am choosing Ethier over Pierre because of his LH power.  While not as fleet as Pierre, Ethier is above average defensively and has a good arm.  He’s a big improvement over Gonzo.
• CF - Andruw Jones - Gold Glove - close to being the best in the business.  End of story.
• RF - Matt Kemp - Raw, but fast.  If you leave him there, he’ll become a great defensive RF.  Plus he has a canon!
• C - Russell Martin  - Gold Glove.  Period!

We should be a very solid defensive team.  The key will be whether we can minimize “unforced” errrors.  If we play fundamentally sound defense, and I think Torre and his staff will focus on that, we will have a championship caliber group on the field.  Our pitching is superior to most if not all the teams in the league.  Our offense will be improved, maybe by leaps and bounds with the maturation of the youngeters and our coaching should be as good as it gets.  We are primed for October baseball!  Pitchers and catchers report February 14th, 2008.  I can hardly wait!

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE & Let me assure you - It Will Be Great in 2008!